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Purpose of the Study: This study determined whether self-reports of unmet need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) disabilities are prognostic of emergency department (ED) utilization., Design and Methods: This prospective cohort study of 2,194 community-living, ADL-disabled subjects combined 2004 National Long-Term Care Survey responses with linked Medicare data through 2005. A negative binomial count model was computed to assess the association between unmet ADL need and number of subsequent ED admissions while statistically adjusting for predisposing, enabling, and need characteristics associated with ED admissions among older adults., Results: The adjusted annual incidence rate (IR) for ED admissions was 19% higher for unmet versus met need (IR = 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.00-1.40; p = .047). The IR for ED admissions for falls and injuries was higher for those with unmet ADL versus met ADL need (IR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.10-1.86), and trended toward significance for ED admissions for skin breakdown (IR = 2.02; 95% CI = 0.97-2.88), but was not significant for ED admissions for dehydration (IR = 1.13; 95% CI= 0.79-1.63)., Implications: Unmet ADL need is prognostic of ED admissions, especially for falls and injuries. Future research is needed to determine whether resolution of unmet ADL need reduces ED utilization., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Medical expenditure data analysis has recently become an important problem in biostatistics. These data typically have a number of features making their analysis rather difficult. Commonly, they are heavily right-skewed, contain a large percentage of zeros, and often exhibit large numbers of missing observations because of death and/or the lack of follow-up. They are also commonly obtained from records that are linked to large longitudinal data surveys. In this manuscript, we suggest a novel approach to modeling these data through the use of generalized method of moments estimation procedure combined with appropriate weights that account for both dropout due to death and the probability of being sampled from among the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) subjects. This approach seems particularly appropriate because of the large number of subjects relative to the length of observation period (in months). We also use a simulation study to compare our proposed approach with and without the use of weights. The proposed model is applied to medical expenditure data obtained from the 2004-2005 NLTCS-linked Medicare database. The results suggest that the amount of medical expenditures incurred is strongly associated with higher number of activities of daily living (ADL) disabilities and self-reports of unmet need for help with ADL disabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: Unmet need for assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs) disability is associated with increased risk for future hospitalization. To further explore the association between unmet ADL need and future health outcomes, we examined the association between unmet need for ADL assistance and 1-year mortality., Methods: A prospective study of 6,730 community-living Medicare recipients was conducted among respondents to the 1994, 1999, and/or 2004 National Long Term Care Survey. Only those who reported having one or more ADL disabilities were included. Time to death within 1 year after the community survey was determined from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services vital statistics records. The community interviews provided demographic, health, and ADL information., Results: Unadjusted 1-year death rates were 8.7%, 10.6%, 11.4%, 19.2%, and 27.3%, respectively, for respondents with disabilities in 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 ADLs. Overall, 21.3% reported unmet need for assistance for one or more ADL disabilities. After controlling for demographic and health characteristics, we found a significant interaction between unmet ADL need and level of ADL disability (p = .018). Post hoc analyses revealed that unmet ADL need was associated with increased risk for mortality only for those with one (hazard ratio = 1.96; 95% CI = 1.29-2.87) or two ADL disabilities (hazard ratio = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.07-1.75), but not for those with three or more ADL disabilities., Conclusion: Future studies are needed to determine whether these findings are replicable and, if so, whether physiologic or process of care variables explain why ADL is associated with mortality only for those with mild disability., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Purpose: This study determined whether returning to the community from a recent hospitalization with unmet activities of daily living (ADL) need was associated with probability of readmission., Methods: A total of 584 respondents to the 1994, 1999, and/or 2004 National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) who were hospitalized within 90 days prior to the interview and reported ADL disability at the time of the interview were considered for analysis. Medicare claims linked to the NLTCS provided information about hospital episodes, so those enrolled in Health Maintenance Organizations or Veterans Affairs Medical Centers were not included (n = 62), resulting in a total sample size of 522. ADL disability was defined as needing human help or equipment to complete the task. Unmet ADL need was defined as receiving inadequate or no help for one or more ADL disabilities. Disability that began within 90 days of the interview was considered new disability., Results: After adjusting for demographic, health, and functioning characteristics, unmet ADL need was associated with increased risk for hospital readmission (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.03-1.82). Risk of readmission was greater for those with unmet need for new disabilities than those with unmet need for disabilities that were present before the index hospitalization (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.01-2.73)., Implications: Many older patients are discharged from the hospital with ADL disability. Those who report unmet need for new ADL disabilities after they return home from the hospital are particularly vulnerable to readmission. Patients' functional needs after discharge should be carefully evaluated and addressed.

Objectives: To determine whether insufficient help for activity of daily living (ADL) disability, a potentially modifiable condition, significantly increases disabled older adults' risk of future hospital admissions., Design: Prospective study., Setting: Community-living participants with ADL disabilities in the 1994, 1999, and 2004 National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS)., Participants: Medicare recipients with one or more ADL disabilities completed 5,884 surveys., Measurements: Times to hospital admission in the year after the NLTCS community survey were obtained from linked Medicare claims. Insufficient ADL help for each ADL limitation was determined from a series of questions common to the three NLTCS community surveys., Results: Insufficient help for one or more ADL limitations was reported in 22% of surveys. Respondents to 3,629 surveys did not experience a hospital admission in the year after the survey. Of the remaining 2,255 surveys, one admission occurred for 382 surveys, two admissions for 525 surveys, three admissions for 193 surveys, and four or more admissions for 155 surveys. Participants reporting insufficient help were 14% (hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.28) more likely to experience one or more hospitalizations than those who did not report insufficient help after controlling for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, prior hospitalizations, and level of ADL disability., Conclusion: Self-reports of insufficient help provide prognostic information beyond what typical health assessments can capture. Greater recognition and referral for insufficient help for ADL disability may result in lower rates of hospitalization in a population that is at high risk of hospitalization., (© 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background and Aims: Many frail older adults experience multiple changes in activities of daily living (ADL) functioning over the course of a year. Accurate predictions of ADL status over quarterly intervals may improve the precision of care planning for older adults who seek long-term care in the community. The study sought to develop and validate a model that predicts older adults' ADL status over quarterly intervals., Methods: The study included 3127 enrollees from 11 Program of All Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) sites. Nurses assessed ADL status quarterly. Potential predictors included baseline assessment of age, sex, race, and living situation and quarterly assessments of prior functioning, co-morbidities, prior hospitalizations, and mental status., Results: Change in level of functioning occurred for 30% of quarterly observations. Predictors of functioning at the end of a quarter were prior ADL change, prior hospitalization, living with others, impaired mental status, cancer, dementia, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. When the model was applied to the validation observations, 93% of predictions were within one level and 72% of the predictions were the same level of ADL functioning observed at the end of the quarter., Conclusions: In a sample of community-living ADL-disabled older adults, changes in functional status over a quarter were common and associated with functional and health status at the beginning of the quarter. Further validation of the model may result in an index that helps clinicians better predict future ADL needs of community-living older adults who need long-term care.

Objectives: To determine the cognitive and functional consequences of dual use of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChIs) and the bladder anticholinergics oxybutynin or tolterodine., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: Nursing homes (NHs) in the state of Indiana., Participants: Three thousand five hundred thirty-six Medicaid-eligible NH residents aged 65 and older taking a ChI between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2004. Residents were excluded if they were taking an anticholinergic other than oxybutynin or tolterodine., Measurements: Indiana Medicaid claims data were merged with data from the Minimum Data Set (MDS). Repeated-measures analyses were performed to assess the effects of dual therapy on change in cognitive function measured using the MDS Cognition Scale (MDS-COGS; scored 0-10) and change in activity of daily living (ADL) function using the seven ADL items in the MDS (scored 0-28). Potential covariates included age, sex, race, number of medications, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score., Results: Three hundred seventy-six (10.6%) residents were prescribed oxybutynin or tolterodine concomitantly with a ChI. In residents in the top quartile of ADL function, ADL function declined an average of 1.08 points per quarter when not taking bladder anticholinergics (ChI alone), compared with 1.62 points per quarter when taking dual therapy, a 50% greater rate in quarterly decline in ADL function (P=.01). There was no excess decline attributable to dual therapy in MDS-COGS scores or in ADL function for residents who started out with lower functioning., Conclusion: In higher-functioning NH residents, dual use of ChIs and bladder anticholinergics may result in greater rates of functional decline than use of ChIs alone. The MDS-COGS may not be sensitive enough to detect differences in cognition due to dual use.

Objectives: To determine the association between indwelling urinary catheterization without a specific medical indication and adverse outcomes., Design: Prospective cohort., Setting: General medical inpatient services at a teaching hospital., Participants: Five hundred thirty-five patients aged 70 and older admitted without a specific medical indication for urinary catheterization., Intervention: Indwelling urinary catheterization within 48 hours of admission., Measurements: Death, length of hospital stay, decline in ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs), and new admission to a nursing home., Results: Indwelling urinary catheters were placed in 76 of the 535 (14%) patients without a specific medical indication. Catheterized patients were more likely to die in the hospital (6.6% vs 1.5% of those not catheterized, P=.006) and within 90 days of hospital discharge (25% vs 10.5%, P<.001); the greater risk of death with catheterization persisted in a propensity-matched analysis (hazard ratio (HR)=2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-5.65). Catheterized patients also had longer lengths of hospital stay (median, 6 days vs 4 days; P=.001); this association persisted in a propensity-matched analysis (HR=1.46, 95% CI=1.03-2.08). Catheterization was not associated (P>.05) with decline in ADL function or with admission to a nursing home., Conclusion: In this cohort of older patients, urinary catheterization without a specific medical indication was associated with greater risk of death and longer hospital stay.

Objectives: To determine whether older people who do not have help for their activity of daily living (ADL) disabilities are at higher risk for acute care admissions and whether entry into a program that provides for these needs decreases this risk., Design: A longitudinal cohort study., Setting: Thirteen nationwide sites for the Program of All-inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). PACE provides comprehensive medical and long-term care to community-living older adults., Participants: Two thousand nine hundred forty-three PACE enrollees with one or more ADL dependencies., Measurements: Unmet needs were defined as the absence of paid or unpaid assistance for ADL disabilities before PACE enrollment. Hospital admissions in the 6 months before PACE enrollment and acute admissions in the first 6 weeks and the 7th through 12th weeks after enrollment were determined., Results: Those who lived with unmet ADL needs before enrollment were more likely to have a hospital admission before PACE enrollment (odds ratio (OR) = 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.63) and an acute admission in the first 6 weeks after enrollment (OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.00-2.09) but not after 6 weeks of receiving PACE services (OR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.53-1.40)., Conclusion: Frail older people who live without needed help for their ADL disabilities have higher rates of admissions while they are living with unmet ADL needs but not after their needs are met. With state governments under increasing pressure to develop fiscally feasible solutions for caring for disabled older people, it is important that they be aware of the potential health consequences of older adults living without needed ADL assistance.

The aim of this study was to determine whether older black and white patients experience different rates of improvement in functioning after being acutely hospitalized. Of the 2,364 community-living patients in this prospective cohort study, 25% self-reported their race/ethnicity to be black. The outcomes were improvement in basic activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) from admission to discharge and 90 days postdischarge. Multivariable models that included statistical adjustment for age, illness severity, in-hospital social service referral, dementia, admission level of functioning, and change in functioning from 2 weeks before admission were computed to determine whether black and white patients experienced significantly different rates of recovery at discharge and 90 days after discharge in ADL and IADL functioning. Black patients were as likely as white patients to improve in ADL functioning by discharge (odds ratio (OR)=0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.76-1.24) or by 90 days after discharge (OR=0.95, 95% CI=0.73-1.24) but significantly less likely to improve IADL functioning by discharge (OR=0.72, 95% CI=0.56-0.93) or by 90 days after discharge (OR=0.68, 95% CI=0.51-0.90). The findings suggest that differential rates of recovery in functioning after an acute hospitalization may contribute to racial/ethnic disparities in IADL functioning, which has implications for the setting of future interventions oriented toward reducing these disparities.

Objectives: To determine whether hospital costs are higher in patients with lower functional status at admission, defined as dependence in one or more activities of daily living (ADLs), after adjustment for Medicare Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) payments., Design: Prospective study., Setting: General medical service at a teaching hospital., Participants: One thousand six hundred twelve patients aged 70 and older., Measurements: The hospital cost of care for each patient was determined using a cost management information system, which allocates all hospital costs to individual patients., Results: Hospital costs were higher in patients dependent in ADLs on admission than in patients independent in ADLs on admission ($5,300 vs $4,060, P<.01). Mean hospital costs remained higher in ADL-dependent patients than in ADL-independent patients in an analysis that adjusted for DRG weight ($5,240 vs $4,140, P<.01), and in multivariate analyses adjusting for age, race, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation score, and admission from a nursing home as well as for DRG weight ($5,200 vs $4,220, P<.01). This difference represents a 23% (95% confidence interval=15-32%) higher cost to take care of older dependent patients., Conclusion: Hospital cost is higher in patients with worse ADL function, even after adjusting for DRG payments. If this finding is true in other hospitals, DRG-based payments provide hospitals a financial incentive to avoid patients dependent in ADLs and disadvantage hospitals with more patients dependent in ADLs.

Objectives: To determine whether a simple question about steadiness at admission predicts in-hospital functional decline and whether unsteadiness at admission predicts failure of in-hospital functional recovery of patients who have declined immediately before hospitalization., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: One university hospital and one community teaching hospital., Participants: One thousand five hundred fifty-seven hospitalized medical patients aged 70 and older., Measurements: On admission, patients reported their steadiness with walking and whether they could perform independently each of five basic activities of daily living (ADLs) at admission and 2 weeks before admission (baseline). For the primary analysis, the outcome was decline in ADL function between admission and discharge. For the secondary analysis, the outcome was in-hospital recovery to baseline ADL function in patients who experienced ADL decline in the 2 weeks before admission., Results: In the primary cohort (n = 1,557), 25% of patients were very unsteady at admission; 22% of very unsteady patients declined during hospitalization, compared with 17%, 18%, and 10% for slightly unsteady, slightly steady, and very steady patients, respectively (P for trend =.001). After adjusting for age; medical comorbidities; Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation II score; and admission ADL, unsteadiness remained significantly associated with ADL decline (odds for decline for very unsteady compared with very steady = 2.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.5-4.5). In the secondary analysis, predicting ADL recovery in patients who declined before hospitalization (n = 563), 46% of patients were very unsteady at admission. In this cohort, 44% of very unsteady patients failed to recover, compared with 35%, 36%, and 33% for each successively higher level of steadiness, respectively (P for trend = 0.06). After multivariate adjustment, greater unsteadiness independently predicted failure of recovery (P for trend = 0.02)., Conclusion: A simple question about steadiness identified patients at increased risk for in-hospital ADL decline and, in patients who lost ADL function immediately before admission, failure to recover.

Objectives: To characterize the functional trajectories during the last 2 years of life of patients with progressive frailty, with and without cognitive impairment, and to assess whether it was possible to identify discrete functional indicators that signal the end of life., Design: A retrospective analysis of functional trajectories during the last 24 months of life., Setting: Twelve demonstration sites of the Program of All-inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). PACE cares for frail older people who meet criteria for nursing home placement, with the goal of keeping the patient at home., Participants: Nine hundred seventeen patients who died while enrolled in PACE., Measures: At PACE entry and every 3 months thereafter, data were collected about the degree of dependence (none, partial, or full) in bathing, eating, and walking and the degree of incontinence (none, bladder, or bowel). Cognitive impairment was defined as six or more errors on the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire. To describe the end-of-life trajectories of patients, data were analyzed from observational windows of time, beginning with the patients' dates of death and extending backward in time to 24 months before death. Each analytical window was 3 months in duration. For each of the functional measures, the probability of functional deterioration in the last 2 years of life in patients with (64%) and without (36%) cognitive impairment was also compared., Results: The mean age at death was 84; 69% of patients were women. For patients with and without cognitive impairment, a prolonged, steady increase in the rates of functional dependence that were evident at least 1 year before death, rather than sudden increases in functional dependence shortly before death, characterized the functional trajectories. It was not possible for any of the four measures to detect a time point before death at which there was an abrupt decline in function likely to signal impending death. For each measure, patients with cognitive impairment declined earlier, were more likely than patients without cognitive impairment to have the maximal level of dependence in the 0- to 3-month window before death (e.g., 56% vs 30% for mobility, P <.001), and were more likely to decline in the 2 years before death (e.g., 56% vs 36% for mobility, P <.001)., Conclusion: Patients with advanced frailty, with or without cognitive impairment, have an end-of-life functional course marked by slowly progressive functional deterioration, with only a slight acceleration in the trajectory of functional loss as death approaches. Patients with cognitive impairment have particularly high rates of functional impairment at the time of death. These results suggest that end-of-life care systems that are targeted toward patients with functional trajectories clearly suggesting impending death (such as the Medicare hospice benefit) are poorly suited to older people dying with progressive frailty.

Background: Many older adults lose functional ability during the course of acute illness and fail to recover function. We sought to determine whether performance on a cognitive screen at the time of hospital admission predicted the magnitude of functional recovery after hospitalization., Methods: We studied 2557 patients from two teaching hospitals to examine the association between level of impaired performance on a cognitive status screen and maintenance and recovery of functioning from admission through 90 days after discharge. On admission, 14% had mildly impaired cognitive performance with three or four errors on the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire; 28% had moderate to severely impaired cognitive performance with five or more errors on the cognitive status screen or inability to complete the screen and a diagnosis of dementia., Results: Performance on a brief cognitive screen on admission was strongly related to subsequent change in function. Among patients who needed help performing one or more activities of daily living at the time of admission, 23% of patients with moderate to severely impaired cognitive performance, 49% of patients with mildly impaired cognitive performance, and 67% of patients with little to no impairment in cognitive performance recovered ability to independently execute an additional activity of daily living by discharge (p <.001). Similar relationships were seen for change in instrumental activities of daily living and mobility. In multivariate repeated measures analyses of basic and instrumental activities of daily living and mobility on admission, discharge, and 30 and 90 days after discharge, patients with mildly impaired cognitive performance on admission showed less improvement than patients who did not have impaired cognitive performance, but more than those with moderate to severely impaired cognitive performance. The pattern of results did not change when patients with any signs of delirium were excluded. Patients with impaired cognitive performance were more likely to be admitted to a nursing home for the first time by 90 days after discharge. The odds ratios were 2.8 (95% confidence interval = 1.8-4.5) for patients with mildly impaired cognitive performance and 6.7 (95% confidence interval = 4.5-9.8) for patients with moderate to severely impaired cognitive performance., Conclusion: Cognitive screening at hospital admission can be used to stratify patients according to the magnitude of expected functional recovery after an acute illness that required hospitalization.

Background: Acute illness may lead to long-term losses in older adults' ability to independently perform activities of daily living (ADLs). The magnitude of these losses may differ for patients with and without cognitive impairment. These relationships have not been described for the frailest of older adults whose high rates of acute illness and cognitive impairment put them at the greatest risk for loss of ADL functioning., Methods: We conducted a prospective study of 2593 patients enrolled in a nationwide medical and psychosocial program for frail, community-living, nursing home-eligible patients. We determined the independent and interactive effects of baseline cognitive impairment and admission for an acute illness on change in ADL functioning over 1 year., Results: ADL decline over 1 year occurred in 53% of cognitively impaired patients who were admitted for an acute illness, 38% of cognitively impaired patients who were not admitted for an acute illness, 42% of noncognitively impaired patients who were admitted for an acute illness, and 25% of noncognitively impaired patients who were not admitted for an acute illness (p <.001). The amount of additional decline in ADLs associated with an admission for an acute illness was similar between patients with and without cognitive impairment (-.85 vs -.74; p for interaction =.86). Among patients who were admitted for an acute illness, significant decline in ADL functioning occurred only in the quarter surrounding the acute illness with no evidence of recovery in the months after the acute illness episode., Conclusions: Among frail older adults, loss of ADL functioning over 1 year is independently associated with both acute admission for an acute illness and cognitive impairment. Frail elders, especially those with cognitive impairment, are in need of interventions that reduce the long-term functional consequences of acute illness.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether the volume of Home- and Community-Based Services (HCBS) that target Activities of Daily Living disabilities, such as attendant care, homemaking services, and home-delivered meals, increases recipients' risk of transitioning from long-term care provided through HCBS to long-term care provided in a nursing home. Data Sources: Data are from the Indiana Medicaid enrollment, claims, and Insite databases. Insite is the software system that was developed for collecting and reporting data for In-Home Service Programs. Study Design: Enrollees in Indiana Medicaid's Aged and Disabled Waiver program were followed forward from time of enrollment to assess the association between the volume of attendant care, homemaking services, home-delivered meals, and related covariates, and the risk for nursing-home placement. An extension of the Cox proportional hazard model was computed to determine the cumulative hazard of nursing-home placement in the presence of death as a competing risk. Principal Findings: Of the 1354 Medicaid HCBS recipients followed in this study, 17% did not receive any attendant care, homemaking services, or home-delivered meals. Among recipients who survived through 24 months after enrollment, one in five transitioned from HCBS to a nursing-home. Risk for nursing-home placement was significantly lower for each five-hour increment in personal care (HR=0.95, 95% CI=0.92-0.98) and homemaking services (HR=0.87, 95% CI=0.77-0.99). Conclusions: Future policies and practices that are focused on optimizing long-term care outcomes should consider that a greater volume of HCBS for an individual is associated with reduced risk of nursing-home placement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]