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http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TVUC3QCo9JMWa free till september 25th; International audience; Urban and energy transitions are increasingly seen as being deeply intertwined. The way this relation impacts our approach to energy transition is a current issue for research. Implementing renewable energy sources in built-up areas challenges incumbent supply chains and large technical systems, especially for electricity, gas and heat. Approaches to transition such as the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) highlight the transformation of socio-technical regimes but have been criticised for overstating stability of regime and for overlooking spatial (and consequently urban) processes. Other concepts are required in order to understand local and non-local relationships between niches and regimes. This paper suggests a constructivist and pragmatic concept for urban energy transition, the Socio-Energetic Node (SEN), thanks to which actors and artefacts can be traced within energy networks. The SEN is a group of elements, which collects, converts and/or supplies energy, built by a decision-maker interacting with stakeholders and regime rules. Having identified SENs in four French eco-districts, we observed how they took shape around continuous energy flows and across decision-making boundaries, highlighting how spatial-scale and place-specificity impact on energy transition.

International audience; Gas security is a key factor in the European Union's energy policy. Contractual relations based on long-term contracts during the 1970s and 1980s led to relative stability in energy trade between the EU and its gas suppliers. But since the mid-1990s, the process of opening up the EU's gas industries to competition and the desire to create a single gas market has led to an in-depth reorganization of the sector. The EU now intends to redefine the way in which it manages its relations with its main suppliers, such as Russia, by attempting to impose a model based on competition, unbundling of network industries and privatization. Russia does not intend to implement this "EU model" in its gas sector, despite the big changes taking place in its domestic market. An approach based on the preferential use of state instruments conflicts with the multilateralism and principles of competition upheld by the EU. The EU's normative power is thus in contradiction with the institutional environment of the Russian energy sector. It is therefore unlikely that energy relations between the EU and Russia will be structured solely on standards stemming from international rules and institutions.

International audience; A super grid connecting the two shores of the Mediterranean could help Europe meet its targets for integrating renewable energy. This paper assesses the business models for building a platform for wholesale renewable energy trade via electricity corridors linking the two regions of the Mediterranean basin. We demonstrate that the optimal framework for designing the corridor project is a long-term contractual agreement to coordinate bilaterally the necessary investments. Furthermore a hybrid governance structure requiring only limited regulatory adaptation seems to be the most efficient structure for facilitating investment in the corridor’s infrastructure.

International audience; This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies.

International audience; The exploration of future energy system trajectories needs to be based on long-term scenarios, which in turn requires using long-term modelling tools. Introducing a strong decarbonisation constraint, for instance, profoundly modifies the power sector, which is impacted by increasing shares of variable renewable energy sources. Long-term modelling tools working on different assumptions increasingly factor in these impacts, the assessment of which requires a clear description and categorization of the technical and economic choices for representing the tools in question. A new typology based on a literature review is presented for both power sector models and long-term models of the energy system. New comparing criteria focussing on the power sector's components are put forward, such as electricity storage and grid. An analysis carried out by means of this categorization on five chosen models shows that, up until now, energy modelling tools and power system tools have been designed to meet separate objectives and have not combined their advantages.

International audience This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

International audience; The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on the European energy sector, country by country, thus achieving progress in this direction. As far as energy demand is concerned, our main finding is that higher temperatures will mean that air-conditioning will consume more energy, reaching about 53 Mtoe by 2100 in a scenario with no strong emissions constraints (A1B). On the other hand less energy will be consumed for heating buildings, falling by about 65 Mtoe per year. This represents a net decrease in energy consumption of about 12 Mtoe by 2100. On the supply side, more constrained and expensive operating conditions for electric power plants will result in lower electricity generation by thermal, nuclear and hydro-power plants, with a maximum decrease of about 200 TWh in 2070 in the A1B scenario and 150 TWh in 2060 and 2080 for a low emissions scenario (E1). These effects vary a great deal across Europe and remain very dependent on the uncertainties affecting the results of the various climate models. This overall uncertainty may inhibit effective decisions. However the study offers insights not otherwise available without the full coverage of the energy system provided by POLES and climate features provided by climate models. The study identifies the main impacts of climate change in a strategic sector and provides an "order of magnitude" or "central trend" for these impacts, which might be useful in an adaptive policy of act, learn and then act again.

Russia’s hydrocarbon sectors and policies represent a number of interesting specificities. Russia’s infrastructural potential and significant domestic market reflect a difference from developing petro-states. At the same time, Russia is ever-increasingly dependent on oil and gas export revenues, which distances it from industrialized energy exporters.

International audience; This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.

International audience; This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however--with the exception of low temperature heat--there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)--which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply--are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

International audience; In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power generation from wind and solar as a non-emitting alternative to replace a nuclear phase-out or failure to deploy CCS technology is investigated using scenarios from EMF27 and the POLES model. A strong carbon price appears necessary to have significant penetration of renewables regardless of alternative generation technologies available, but especially if nuclear or CCS are absent from the energy supply system. The feasibility of replacing nuclear generation appears possible at realistic costs (evaluated as total abatement costs and final user prices to households); however for ambitious climate policies, such as a 450 ppm target, CCS could represent a critical technology that renewables will not be able to fully replace without unbearable economic costs.

available online 9 January 2014 : http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513012524; International audience; Demand side management (DSM) in electricity markets could improve energy efficiency and achieve environmental targets through controlled consumption. For the past 10 years or so DSM programmes have registered significant results. However, detailed analysis of its real impact as observed by a large number of pilot studies suggests that such programmes need to be fine-tuned to suit clearly identified conditions. This study aims to provide recommendations for the instruments to be used to prompt demand response with a view to maximizing energy and environmental efficiencies of various countries. The present study suggests that different DSM models should be deployed depending on the specific generation mix in any given country. Beside the natural benefits from cross-borders infrastructures, DSM improves the flexibility and reliability of the energy system, absorbing some shock on generation mix. We show efficiency increases with demand response but at a decreasing rate. So, according to rebound and report effects, simple DSM tools could be preferred.

In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

International audience; The HyFrance Group was originally formed in France to support the European project HyWays, by providing (former projects HyFrance1 and HyFrance2) the French data and possible hydrogen pathways according to the national specificities. HyFrance3 is a new project that focuses on the economic competitiveness of differents teps of the hydrogen chain, from the production to the end use, at the time horizon of 2030 in France. HyFrance3 is a 10 partners' project coordinated by the CEA. The project addresses the present and future French hydrogen industrial markets for chemical and refinery uses, the analysis of the interplay between wind energy production and storage of hydrogen for different automotive requirements (refuelling stations, biofuel plants, Hydrogen/Natural Gas mix), the massive hydrogen storage to balance various supply and demand characteristics, and the supply network (pipeline option competitiveness vs. trucked in supply) to distribute hydrogen in a French region for automotive applications. Technical and economical issues are addressed. The future industrial hydrogen demand in France will be over 106 t/year ca. 2030, and could be doubled if there is a use for reduction in the steel industry. If hydrogen is produced by electrolysis from wind energy systems, the costs vary from ca. 4 to 20 €/kg, depending strongly on the type of demand and the connexion rate to the grid. At a French regional scale, hydrogen use for transports needs mass storage (at least 103 t) to balance a constant supply and a seasonal demand, the corresponding transport and distribution up to 2050 require pipelines and the costs could be limited to the reasonable values ca.0.4-0.6 €/kg.

http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1142/S2010007813400058; International audience; The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy policy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission's "Energy Roadmap 2050". It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important to improve coordination between Member State policies and those at the EU level.

The EU gas security is a key factor of its energy policy. The contractual relations based on long-term contracts during the 1970s and 1980s led to relative stability in energy trade between UE and its gas suppliers. But since the mid-1990s, the process of opening up the EU's gas industries to competition and the desire to create a single gas market led to an in-depth reorganization of the sector. In this context, the EU intends to redefine the way in which it manages its relations with its main suppliers like Russia by attempting to impose a model based on competition, unbundling of network industries and privatization. This "EU model" is no longer the one that Russia intends to implement in its gas sector, despite the big changes taking place in its domestic market. An approach based on the preferential use of state instruments conflicts with the multilateralism and principles of competition of the EU, which advocates market opening, unbundling and even the privatization of the gas sector. The EU's normative power is thus in contradiction with the institutional environment of the Russian energy sector. In this context, it is unlikely that standards based on international rules and institutions could only be used to structure energy relations between the EU and Russia., La sécurité gazière de l'Union européenne émerge depuis le début des années 2000 comme un élément clé de sa politique énergétique. Les relations contractuelles basées sur les contrats de long terme durant les années 1970 et 1980 ont produit une relative stabilité dans les échanges énergétiques entre l'UE et ses fournisseurs gaziers. Mais depuis le milieu des années 1990, le processus d'ouverture à la concurrence des industries gazières de l'UE ainsi que la volonté de créer un marché unique du gaz conduisent à des réorganisations en profondeur de ce secteur. Dans ce contexte, l'UE entend redéfinir la gestion de ses relations avec ses principaux fournisseurs en tentant d'imposer son " modèle " basé sur la concurrence, la dé-intégration des entreprises de réseau et la privatisation. Le " modèle de l'UE " n'est pas celui que la Russie tend à mettre en œuvre dans son secteur gazier en dépit d'importants changements. La logique basée sur l'utilisation privilégiée d'un instrument étatique s'oppose au multilatéralisme et aux principes concurrentiels de l'UE qui prônent l'ouverture, la dé-intégration voire la privatisation du secteur gazier. Le pouvoir normatif de l'UE se trouve ainsi en contradiction avec l'environnement institutionnel du secteur énergétique russe.

International audience; In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy, while the rest of the world sticks to much more modest abatement policies. The analysis shows that under such stringent climate policies, Europe may benefit of a significant double dividend, first in its capacity to develop a new cleaner and climate-friendlier energy model, and second in a lower vulnerability to potential price or supply shocks on the international energy markets.

Network regulation is playing an active role in a context of restructuring energy systems for long term transition to a smart grid. Regulation of network companies’ activities should consider both cost efficiency objectives and other objectives such as quality and network innovation. It is in this context that incentive regulation tools are discussed and assessed in this paper. The aim is to show their key features and how they could be aligned with the main regulation goals. This paper concludes that they should be considered as complementary tools to address conflicting regulatory aspects in an efficient manner. La regolamentazione delle reti sta giocando un ruolo importante nel contest della ristrutturazione dei sistemi energetici nella transizione verso le reti intelligenti. La regolamentazione delle attivita delle imprese di rete dovrebbe tenere in considerazione sia gli obiettivi di efficienza sia quelli di promozione della qualita e dell’innovazione della rete. E in questo contesto che l’articolo discute e valuta gli strumenti di regolamentazione incentivante. Lo scopo e quello di mostrare le loro caratteristiche principali e come tali strumenti potrebbero contribuire al raggiungimento dei principali obiettivi della regolamentazione. L’articolo sostiene che essi dovrebbero essere considerati come strumenti complementari per affrontare in modo efficiente gli obiettivi conflittuali della regolamentazione.

International audience; The deployment of smart grids in electricity systems has given rise to much interdisciplinary research. The new technology is seen as an additional instrument available to States to achieve targets for promoting competition, increasing the safety of electricity systems and combating climate change. But the boom in smart grids also raises many economic questions. Public policies will need to be adapted, firstly to make allowance for the potential gains from smart grids and the associated information flow, and secondly to regulate the new networks and act as an incentive for investors. The new competitive offerings and end-user pricing systems will contribute to improving allocative and productive efficiency, while minimizing the risks of market power. With real-time data on output and consumption, generators and consumers will be able to adapt to market conditions. Lastly smart grids will boost the development of renewable energy sources and new technologies, by assisting their integration and optimal use.

International audience; Wind-generated electricity is often considered a particularly promising option for producing hydrogen from renewable energy sources. However, the economic performances of such systems generally remain unclear because of unspecified or favorable assumptions and operating conditions. The aim of this paper is to clarify these conditions by examining how the hydrogen produced is used. The analysis that has been conducted in the framework of the HyFrance 3 project concerns hydrogen for transport applications. Different technical systems are considered such as motorway hydrogen filling stations, Hythane®-fueled buses or second-generation biofuels production, which present contrasted hydrogen use characteristics. This analysis reveals considerable variations in hydrogen production costs depending on the demand profiles concerned, with the most favorable configurations being those in which storage systems are kept to a minimum.

The crisis between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 highlights the fragility and instability of transporting gas from the Caspian and Central Asia to Europe via the "Caucasus transit corridor". The feasibility of one of the EU's possible strategies for diversifying its energy supplies might now be called into question. The aim of this article is to examine the new strategies that could emerge in the producing countries as well as those of international oil companies, and then look at what the consequences might be as far as the EU's diversification strategy is concerned., L'approvisionnement de l'Union européenne à partir du gaz naturel d'Asie centrale acheminé par la voie "caucasienne" est censé être une source de diversification importante des fournisseurs de l'Europe, et devrait contribuer à la sécurisation gazière de l'UE. Le conflit entre la Russie et la Géorgie en août 2008 a toutefois mis à jour les instabilités des pays de transit de ce corridor d'approvisionnement en gaz naturel et en pétrole. Ces dernières sont susceptibles de profondément modifier le comportement des acteurs en présence, compagnies pétrolières internationales, Etats d'Asie centrale. L'objectif de cet article est de tenter d'analyser les conséquences des changements de stratégies de ces acteurs sur la diversification gazière de l'UE.

Based on simulations of the POLES model, this paper aims to analyse the interactions between policies to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the fundamentals of the world oil market. The « carbon value » is the modelling device that reflects the relative harshness of climate policies. It represents the signal that triggers socially responsible investments addressing the climate challenge, ie greenhouse gas abatement investments. We compare a Reference energy scenario and a scenario of emission reductions by a factor four in industrialized countries by 2050. The results show that very ambitious climate policies allow both to mitigate climate change and to manage the depletion of world oil resources. JEL classification : Q58, Q41, Blanchard Odile, Criqui Patrick, Kitous Alban, Mima Silvana. The impact of climate policies on energy markets and the price of carbon. In: Revue d'économie financière (English ed.), n°83, 2006. Carbon finance. pp. 89-110.

Dec. 2003, 15 p., soumis à International Journal of GLobal Energy Issues; International audience; China will emerge in the next twenty years as a major importer of gas and thus shape the energy exchanges and markets in Asia. But different constraints must be overcome. The increase of natural gas share in the Chinese energy balance will depend on the country's capacity to create a unified gas market in place and instead of the fragmented exchanges. This implies several economic and institutional reforms (as for example the energy price reform). One important element that will determine the growth of the Chinese gas industry concerns the role of international investors. The growth of the Chinese gas demand would lead to a radical change in the country's energy policy, which up until now has been dominated by the search for self-sufficiency. From this point of view, the question of the choices of the main gas suppliers is essential concerning the Chinese energy security. Different countries are in competition. But the choices of the main suppliers are very linked with the way in which China perceives its integration at the international level and in the Asian region.

The paper analyses the probable position of major continental infrastructures for gas trade within Asia in relation to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects which are foreseen as advantageous in the future for supplying energy to the Asian markets. Siberia and countries of the Caspian Basin and Central Asia are becoming steadily more reliable as potential export sources of gas supplies in Asia. However, in the light of the competition from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, LNG poses a range of economic, institutional and geopolitical restrictions on the development of continental gas pipeline projects. These projects need major investments that require an association of international investors; however, such investors will not involve themselves in such projects without major changes to the institutions and economic structures of Russia and the Central Asian Republics.

http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1142/S2010007813400046; International audience; Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects : affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.