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We exploit a mortgage reform that differentially unlocked home equity across the Danish population and study how this impacted selection into entrepreneurship. We find that increased entry was concentrated among entrepreneurs whose firms were founded in industries where they had no prior work experience. Nevertheless, we find that marginal entrants benefiting from the reform had higher pre-entry earnings and a significant share of these entrants started longer-lasting firms. Our results are most consistent with a view that housing collateral enabled higher ability individuals with less-well-established track records to overcome credit rationing and start new firms, rather than only leading to ‘frivolous entry’ by those without prior industry experience.

The Australian Women’s Working Futures (AWWF) Project is a two-wave survey aiming at understanding the attitudes of young women and men aged 40 and under about their working futures. In 2017 the first nationally representative data set on gender and the future of work was collected in Australia. The 2022 data is part of a larger three-country study comparing gender and the post-pandemic future of work in Australia, the UK and Japan.

We study whether carbon emissions affect the cross-section of US stock returns. We find that stocks of firms with higher total carbon dioxide emissions (and changes in emissions) earn higher returns, controlling for size, book-to-market, and other return predictors. We cannot explain this carbon premium through differences in unexpected profitability or other known risk factors. We also find that institutional investors implement exclusionary screening based on direct emission intensity (the ratio of total emissions to sales) in a few salient industries. Overall, our results are consistent with an interpretation that investors are already demanding compensation for their exposure to carbon emission risk.

On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced a largely unexpected domination plan for Volkswagen. The resulting short squeeze in Volkswagen’s stock briefly made it the most valuable listed company in the world. We argue that this was a manipulation designed to save Porsche from insolvency and the German laws against this kind of abuse were not effectively enforced. Using hand-collected data we provide the first rigorous academic study of the Porsche-VW squeeze and show that it significantly impeded market efficiency. Preventing manipulation is important because without efficient securities markets, the EU’s major project of the Capital Markets Union cannot be successful.

Dramaturgical perspectives have been used successfully in the past by crisis management researchers. However, previous contributions have been limited because they have been actor-centered, which has meant that they have tended to ignore the critical role that an audience can play in the drama of a crisis. This article therefore presents a “third act” in which dramaturgical perspectives are used to deliver an actor-and-audience centered analysis of crisis management. This third act is built around the dramaturgical concept of “characterization,” which we introduce to assess how an audience receives the symbolic outputs and discourses that are produced by crisis actors. After this theorizing, we present an analytical model, which will allow future researchers to analyze the interplay between actor, audience, and legitimacy when examining crisis. We conclude by illustrating the model's analytical capacity via an examination of the role of leaders and experts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Governance systems reconcile diverse interests to enable collective decision-making and action. Questions related to representation in the governance of networks are addressed in the literature; underexplored is the empirical variation in governance arrangements and pathways of representation. Complex, multi-jurisdictional disasters provide a robust theoretical and empirical context in which to investigate network governance pathways due to the tensions between democratic principles of representation and the need for timely, expert-informed response actions. In this article, we address three questions related to network governance, representation, and complex disasters: what governance structures allow for a representation of diverse interests? What governance structures provide a perception of voice to key affected parties? And where do we see variation in the kinds of structures that give voice to these entities? Using an inductive, grounded theory approach along with mixed methods that include case studies, interviews, and archival data in the form ICS 209 incident reports, we provide evidence from 10 of the most jurisdictionally complex wildfires that took place in 2017. In doing so, we introduce the distinction between macro and micro structures of network governance for understanding more precisely the pathways by which representation occurs and how representation functions in disaster networks. There is no singular normative goal when we think about network governance and representation in disasters; rather there are competing contingencies that emerge out of complex contexts. We propose four key propositions to guide further work in this arena.

The Chinese digital technology giants, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (BAT), dominate over their competitors in China across platforms that include e-commerce, digital entertainment, e-finance and artificial intelligence (AI). To understand BAT’s corporate power and their strategic role working with the government – in this case, their involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – this paper unveils the capabilities of these three oligopolies and discusses their international expansion in relation to the BRI. The BRI is being constructed on two layers, the physical and digital infrastructure, and the BAT are contributing to the latter. This paper examines the interrelations between BAT and the state through case studies, observing the tensions and potential contradictions arising from the reliance of the Chinese state on the BAT to build digital infrastructure, while the BAT seek to minimize direct state regulation for their data-driven business models.

The promise of contingent convertible capital securities (CoCos) as a ”bail-in” solution has been the subject of considerable theoretical analysis and debate, but little is known about their effects in practice. We undertake the first comprehensive empirical analysis of bank CoCo issues, a market segment that comprises over 730 instruments totaling $521 billion. Four main findings emerge: (1) the propensity to issue a CoCo is higher for larger and better capitalized banks; (2) CoCo issues result in a statistically significant decline in issuers’ CDS spread, indicating that they generate risk-reduction benefits and lower costs of debt (this is especially true for CoCos that convert into equity, have mechanical triggers, and are classified as Additional Tier 1 instruments); (3) CoCos with only discretionary triggers do not have a significant impact on CDS spreads; and (4) CoCo issues have no statistically significant impact on stock prices, except for principal write-down CoCos with a high trigger level, which have a positive effect.

We explore how large and small banks make funding decisions when system-wide bailouts are possible. We show that bank size, purely on strategic grounds, is a key determinant of banks’ leverage choices, even when bailout policies treat large and small banks symmetrically. Large banks leverage more than small banks because they internalize that their decisions directly affect bailout policies. In equilibrium, this effect is amplified by strategic spillovers to small banks since banks’ leverage choices are strategic complements. Overall, the presence of large banks makes bailouts more likely. The optimal regulation features size-dependent policies that disproportionately restrict large banks’ leverage.

A book review of Racism in American Public Life: A Call to Action, by Johnnetta Betsch Cole, University of Virginia Press, 2021. 152 pp. $19.95 Accepted version

Supplemental material file: online appendix We show that negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has expansionary effects on credit supply through a portfolio rebalancing channel. By shifting down and flattening the yield curve, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the zero-lower-bound and has effects similar to QE. For identification, we exploit ECB’s NIRP and the Italian credit register and, for external validity, European and U.S. datasets. NIRP affects more banks with higher ex-ante liquid assets, including net interbank positions. More exposed banks reduce liquid assets, expand credit supply, especially to financially-constrained firms, and cut loan rates, inducing firms to increase investment and the wage bill. This project received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 648398). Peydró also acknowledges financial support from the ECO2015-68182-P (MINECO/FEDER, UE) grant and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, through the Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R&D (SEV-2015-0563).

Recognition of co-operatives as a legitimate business model and form of economic participation was significantly challenged by the rise of neo-liberalism in the 1980s with its emphasis on individuals and markets. This fueled an externally and internally driven push to demutualize co-operatives and convert them into Investor Owned Businesses (IOB). While the international trend to demutualize emerged from the end of the Second World War, evidence indicates it accelerated from the late 1980s until the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. Drawing on an ongoing project of historical data collection and visual analysis of Australian co-operatives, this paper explores the Australian experience with demutualization, particularly with regard to agriculture. In line with the international experience, there has been a surge in Australian demutualization since the 1980s. However, while demutualization continues to be a feature of the Australian landscape post-GFC as co-operatives tackle with the changed political and economic environment, the paper also challenges the view that demutualization is inevitable for agricultural co-operatives. Co-operative managers can make strategic choices to avoid demutualization and retain member control. Further, co-operative culture and the persistence of co-operative clusters in particular regions can blunt the push to demutualize.

Accepted version

This paper uncovers a novel component for exchange rate predictability based on the price difference between sovereign credit default swaps denominated in different currencies. This new forecasting variable – the credit-implied risk premium – captures the expected currency depreciation conditional on a severe but rare credit event. Using data for 16 Eurozone countries, we find that the credit-implied risk premium positively forecasts the dollar-euro exchange rate return at various horizons. Moreover, a currency strategy that exploits the informative content of our predictor generates substantial out-of-sample economic value against the na¨ıve random walk benchmark.

China’s unprecedented economic rise has generated great interest, not least because it seems to have occurred by studiously ignoring the ‘lessons’ of the Western experience and the advice of hitherto influential external agencies. On the contrary, the ‘China model’ owes more to an East Asian developmental model in which the state has played a large role. As a consequence, we argue that China is proving to be a more attractive role model for other rising economies such as Vietnam, which is also a notionally ‘communist’ state. This paper considers the Chinese experience and its possible implications for Vietnam. The key questions in this context are how China managed its integration with the global capitalist economy and whether other states such as Vietnam will also be able to manage their development according to distinctive national priorities, rather than the sort of international ‘best practice’ that has been urged upon its leaders by external actors. We argue that not only is Vietnam learning from China, but much of the Eurocentric literature in this area overlooks the importance of contingency and path dependence.

This paper aims to develop the concept of an ‘Alberta effect’ as a type of antonym to the ‘California effect’ in the literature on environmental policy in federal states. The paper argues that Canada’s efforts to achieve an effective national climate strategy over the past 25 years have, to a large extent, been hampered by an Alberta effect, where a relatively small jurisdiction has not only used a permissive federalist architecture to grind federal action to a halt, but has also completely overwhelmed emissions reductions made elsewhere in the federation. The article explores the nature of this effect and the conditions which have allowed it to occur, and provides some preliminary insight into how Ottawa might hope to manage this situation and work towards decarbonising the Canadian economy going forward.

Identifying the effects of “flights to safety” on asset prices using pure time-series methods is difficult because crises are infrequent. We develop a new cross-sectional identification approach, motivated by the insight that investors may differ in their “preferred habitats” within a broad asset class. We apply the method to the question of whether foreign capital is responsible for residential real estate price movements in global cities such as London and New York, especially during crises. Using large data sets of housing transactions, we find that foreign risk strongly affects London house prices. The effects are long-lasting, and are associated with both safe-haven effects and immigration.

Despite systemic internal and external differences, Australia and China have shown striking similarities in their pursuit of disputed maritime resource and jurisdictional claims. This high-stakes area of international politics is governed by a codified, globally accepted international legal regime (the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), making it an important case for examining the relationship between states’ foreign policies and the ‘rules-based international order’. In the South China Sea, Beijing is haunted by the legacy of its strong geopolitically driven support for an expansive law of the sea regime in the 1970s. Strategic considerations also drove Australia’s belated embrace of international legal processes in the Timor Sea in 2016. Before that, successive Australian governments had been as keen to pursue national maritime interests through bilateral negotiations as their Chinese counterparts. Australia’s shift was enabled by pro-Timor domestic public opinion and a confluence of geographic and commercial circumstances not present in the South China Sea.

The global expansion of HIV testing, prevention and treatment services is necessary to achieve HIV epidemic control and promote individual and population health benefits for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Community-based health workers (CHWs) could play a key role in supporting implementation at scale. In the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in Zambia and South Africa, a cadre of 737 study-specific CHWs, working closely with government-employed CHW, were deployed to deliver a ‘universal’ door-to-door HIV prevention package, including an annual offer of HIV testing and referral services for all households in 14 study communities. We conducted a process evaluation using qualitative and quantitative data collected during the trial (2013–2018) to document the implementation of the CHW intervention in practice. We focused on the recruitment, retention, training and support of CHWs, as they delivered study-specific services. We then used these descriptions to: (i) analyse the fidelity to design of the delivery of the intervention package, and (ii) suggest key insights for the transferability of the intervention to other settings. The data included baseline quantitative data collected with the study-specific CHWs (2014–2018); and qualitative data from key informant interviews with study management (n = 91), observations of CHW training events (n = 12) and annual observations of and group discussions (GD) with intervention staff (n = 68). We show that it was feasible for newly recruited CHWs to implement the PopART intervention with good fidelity, supporting the interpretation of the trial outcome findings. This was despite some challenges in managing service quality and CHW retention in the early years of the programme. We suggest that by prioritizing the adoption of key elements of the in-home HIV services delivery intervention model—including training, emotional support to workers, monitoring and appropriate remuneration for CHWs—these services could be successfully transferred to new settings.

Review of Refuge Beyond Reach, by David Scott FitzGerald

Building parable economies embedding econometricians, we view alternative estimators (Instrumental variables, fuzzy regression discontinuity, natural experiments, OLS, event studies) from the perspective of privately informed decision-makers, e.g., CFOs. Instrumental variable estimates can be misleading since randomization through observable instruments eliminates signal content arising from discretion. If the goal is informing discretionary decisions, rather than predicting outcomes after forced/mistaken actions, instrumentation is problematic, whereas OLS or event studies can be sufficient. The analysis shows that the utility of alternative estimators hinges upon often neglected assumptions about agent/econometrician information sets, as distinct from exclusion restrictions. We recommend parable economy estimation before real-world IV estimation.

This paper addresses a question which is fundamental to the perceived legitimacy of the distribution of resources today: to what extent does unfairness in how assets came to be acquired in the past affect incomes and wealth now? To answer that question requires two things: first, a principle to determine what is, and what is not, a just acquisition of wealth or a just source of income; second, a means of using that principle to estimate what fraction of wealth and income is now unjust. I use a principle put forward by Robert Nozick to provide the first of these things and then use a model of wealth accumulation and economic growth to illustrate its implications for the scale of unfairness today. The greater is depreciation of assets, the higher are saving rates out of labour income and the less important is human capital the more transient are the effects of past economic injustices. I use data on the perceived unfairness of economic outcomes to see if there is any evidence that those features which the model implies should influence the durability of injustice help explain cross-country differences in attitudes towards unfairness.

Poor mental health is a pressing global health problem, with high prevalence among poor populations from low-income countries. Existing studies of conditional cash transfer (CCT) effects on mental health have found positive effects. However, there is a gap in the literature on population-wide effects of cash transfers on mental health and if and how these vary by the severity of mental illness. We use the Malawian Longitudinal Study of Family and Health containing 790 adult participants in the Malawi Incentive Programme, a year-long randomized controlled trial. We estimate average and distributional quantile treatment effects and we examine how these effects vary by gender, HIV status and usage of the cash transfer. We find that the cash transfer improves mental health on average by 0.1 of a standard deviation. The effect varies strongly along the mental health distribution, with a positive effect for individuals with worst mental health of about four times the size of the average effect. These improvements in mental health are associated with increases in consumption expenditures and expenditures related to economic productivity. Our results show that CCTs can improve adult mental health for the poor living in low-income countries, particularly those with the worst mental health.

We use investment-level data to study performance persistence in venture capital (VC). Consistent with prior studies, we find that each additional initial public offering (IPO) among a VC firm’s first ten investments predicts as much as an 8% higher IPO rate on its subsequent investments, though this effect erodes with time. In exploring its sources, we document several additional facts: successful outcomes stem in large part from investing in the right places at the right times; VC firms do not persist in their ability to choose the right places and times to invest; but early success does lead to investing in later rounds and in larger syndicates. This pattern of results seems most consistent with the idea that initial success improves access to deal flow. That preferential access raises the quality of subsequent investments, perpetuating performance differences in initial investments.

Expulsion from the state is approached as a crisis within both human rights and refugee studies, with Hannah Arendt proposing that the ‘loss of national rights was identical with the loss of human rights’ (Arendt 1976, p. 292). This analysis conceptualises the state as a protective structure and seeks to rehabilitate the refugee into the state system, whether within a reformed natal state (through return) or into a new state (through local integration or resettlement), ultimately restoring the refugee as ‘citizen’. This model is rooted in what Nira Yuval-Davis (1997, p. 119) terms ‘the “fraternal” enlightenment project’ and is both western centric and has a male, purportedly universal-imagined citizen at its heart. Postcolonial feminist scholars have articulated the many ways in which third world/non-western women’s relationships to the state are more commonly either distant or repressive. Expulsion from the state may not, for those who have held only notional or marginal citizenship, entail the ‘radical crisis’ of human rights (Agamben 1998, p. 126) that refugee studies and human rights that theories conceive. Moments of rupture and crisis that disrupt powerful sociocultural norms and break the alliance between constraining state and civil society structures (patriarchal ethnic and religious institutions) can also be moments of social transformation and opportunity. This paper explores the social practices and testimonies of refugees in transit in Indonesia to examine the assumptions underpinning citizenship and to question whether the social good that citizenship aims to deliver needs to be tied to the state.

Plastic pollution is a major issue affecting the oceans. Despite rivers being the principal source of plastic debris, few of the studies on plastic pollution are focused on freshwater environments. To contribute to filling this knowledge gap, we analyzed three years of data on plastic pollution in the Thames in London. Using a community ecology approach, we analyzed abundance and composition of plastic items, testing for changes across time and space. We found two different types of sites with different compositions of items and a stable abundance of macro-plastic debris in the years 2016–2018. We identified a list of statistically significant plastic items as potential representative indicators in future surveys to estimate what is present in the water column as well as conduct effective cleaning and protection efforts. This study aims to optimize future data collection efforts, creating a reference for forthcoming similar work around the globe especially in high-income, high-density urban areas, with implications for policymakers, non-governmental organizations and researchers.

The issue of time horizons has received scant attention in discussions pertaining to health economic evaluations unlike discounting or translation of health outcomes into life-cycle measures (e.g. quality-adjusted life years or disability-adjusted life years). The available guidelines do not offer clear and consistent guidance for many problems addressed in health economic evaluations. In practice, variation of time horizons between studies for the same diseases is a matter of concern, as results on cost-effectiveness depend on the time horizon. Our paper contributes to establishing a consistent approach to setting time horizons across common types of health economic evaluations and mitigating potential bias where the choice of a time horizon may affect results of the evaluation. We find that available guidance is clear only for patient-focused interventions, but not in the presence of population-level effects owing to transmission of infections or other linkages. We distinguish between a policy period—over which an intervention is delivered or initiated—and an evaluation period over which the effects are measured. One important challenge in establishing a time horizon for evaluation is that, at least for infectious diseases, the state of the epidemic at the end of the policy period cannot be evaluated precisely and incorporated in the results of an economic evaluation. While longer policy periods partly mitigate this challenge, they are subject to greater uncertainty, and outcomes may not adequately reflect the cost-effectiveness of current policies because outcomes reflect an average over the policy period. Incremental analysis on interventions implemented in sub-periods of the policy period (especially at the beginning) potentially improves accuracy and helps to identify potential for improving cost-effectiveness by varying the path of implementation or the mix of interventions offered over time.

For scholars of Southeast Asia interested in human rights, Myanmar is a country that ‘has it all.’ I use this tongue-in-cheek expression to suggest the myriad ways that the country remains mired in structural challenges that inform its current human rights problems. In this paper, I point out the country’s most glaring structural challenges and link these to its most pressing human rights problems. A brief section about Myanmar in the context of COVID-19 offers the same conclusion as the rest of the article: while there is variance in the actors targeted and the degree of suppression, the underlying patterns of oppression remain unchanged over time.

Si bien el trienio de la Unidad Popular ha generado una gran literatura mundial, sigue siendo un tema de relevancia central para la reflexión crítica sobre los caminos al socialismo, sus formas, ritmos y obstáculos. El proyecto vigente es resultado de un profundo esfuerzo colectivo en la 2ª mitad de 2020 para alabar y criticar al mismo tiempo la así llamada Vía Chilena el Socialismo, a 50 años del triunfo de Salvador Allende y la Unidad Popular, desde variados enfoques. En este Vol. I (Historia), la lectoría encontrará tras el prefacio de Faride Zerán, un conjunto de 29 capítulos divididos en seis partes temáticas. La primera, sobre “Cultura y Feminismos”, contiene 5 capítulos que tratan de los feminismos interseccionales durante la UP, los cambios en la cultura, en la educación y la producción literaria. La 2ª parte, “Lucha Popular y Derechos”, reúne 5 trabajos sobre la experiencia de lucha cotidiana de los trabajadores, los sentidos populares de la política, el protagonismo comunitario y el sistema sanitario de la UP. En la 3ª parte, “Poder y Partidos”, se encuentran 5 capítulos sobre los partidos de izquierda, las polémicas de la Revolución Chilena bajo la mirada del presente, las alianzas políticas tejidas en las luchas sociales, la historia del FRAP hasta la UP y las relaciones entre la Revolución Cubana y la Vía Chilena. En la 4ª parte, intitulada “Economía y Reforma Agraria”, están reunidos 5 capítulos sobre la nacionalización del cobre, la reforma agraria, las luchas campesinas, el problema de la productividad, las crisis de desabastecimiento y el paro patronal de 1972. En la 5ª, “Luchas Indígenas y Territorio”, se encuentran 5 capítulos sobre la larga lucha indígena, el Cautinazo, las relaciones de alianzas y tensiones entre el pueblo mapuche y el marxismo, más las particularidades culturales y territoriales en las movilizaciones por la recuperación de las tierras usurpadas en Wallmapu. En la 6ª, “Imperialismo y Contrarrevolución”, hay 4 trabajos sobre las estrategias y actuación de las derechas durante el trienio, las maniobras de la sedición, las fuerzas que generaron el golpe de 1973, el papel de los Estados Unidos en el golpe militar y la cuestión militar desde el enfoque de la lucha popular.

Since 2014, the government in England has undertaken a programme of work to explore the measurement of learning gain in undergraduate education. This is part of a wider neoliberal agenda to create a market in higher education, with student outcomes featuring as a key construct of value for money. The Higher Education Funding Council for England (subsequently dismantled) invested £4 million in funding 13 pilot projects to develop and test instruments and methods for measuring learning gain, with approaches largely borrowed from the US. Whilst measures with validity in specific disciplinary or institutional contexts were developed, a robust single instrument or measure has failed to emerge. The attempt to quantify learning represented by this initiative should spark debate about the rationale for quantification—whether it is for accountability, measuring performance, assuring quality or for the enhancement of teaching, learning and the student experience. It also raises profound questions about who defines the purpose of higher education; and whether it is those inside or outside of the academy who have the authority to decide the key learning outcomes of higher education. This article argues that in focusing on the largely technical aspects of the quantification of learning, government-funded attempts in England to measure learning gain have overlooked fundamental questions about the aims and values of higher education. Moreover, this search for a measure of learning gain represents the attempt to use quantification to legitimize the authority to define quality and appropriate outcomes in higher education.

A recent debate in the international CSR literature has focused on the question whether CSR serves as a mirror or a substitute of country-level governance. Advocates of the mirror view highlight the role of country level institutions to drive corporate social performance (CSP) levels, whereas proponents of the substitute view find companies to become more active in light of governance gaps. We contribute to this debate by moving the focus to a sample of 264 emerging economy and developing country companies and by comparing the relationship between country-level governance and CSP based on three different CSP dimensions, namely, emissions, human rights, and community performance. Whilst we find corporate emissions performance and human rights performance to align more closely with the mirror view, there is some indication that corporate community performance—possibly traced back to the longstanding tradition of corporate philanthropy in non-Western contexts—instead acts as a substitute to fill institutional voids. We discuss implications of our findings for research and policymakers.

This article argues that Beijing’s ambitious ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) is driven by the convergence of Innenpolitik and Aussenpolitik motivations including a desire: to counterbalance percei...

This article examines the wellsprings of Donald Trump's nascent foreign policy program. It argues that the locus of the Republican president's foreign policy agenda is found within the Jacksonian tradition of American foreign policy identified by Walter Russell Mead. Here, notions of “national honor” and “reputation” are the driving factors that underpin Trump's emerging narrative. The implications of this for U.S. strategic and defense policy may be an enhanced reliance on nuclear deterrence and the downgrading of the U.S. military's forward posture in Asia and the Middle East.

The Justice and Security Act of 2013 provides for closed hearings in civil cases involving security sensitive information. The author argues that the UK Government successfully created and reinforced the authority of secretive sources to ensure the Bill was passed. Such authoritative sources promoted imaginaries of a future attack but also the need to respect legal principles that protected members of ‘our’ community. The dynamics between these imaginaries and principles led to the passing of the Bill in its final form – approving closed procedures in court, but removing inquests and issues of the ‘public interest’ from the Bill. Moreover, deliberation of the Bill was represented as negotiated and rational, thereby providing the final Act with legitimacy in elite fields. This research outlines how secrecy may not only be an end-goal of securitization moves, but reference to secret intelligence can also be integral to the justification of these moves.

The 2016 presidential election demonstrated the rise of a “restraint constituency” in American politics that openly questions Washington's bipartisan post-Cold War pursuit of a grand strategy of primacy or liberal hegemony. This constituency has been animated by the return of the Jacksonian tradition of American foreign policy, most notably in the candidacy of Donald Trump, which directly questions the benefits of alliance relationships as well as U.S. underwriting of an open global economic system. It also stresses the need for the United States to act unilaterally in defense of its core foreign policy interests. The resurgence of the Jacksonian tradition will make it difficult for the next President to reestablish a foreign policy consensus and combat perceptions of American decline.

Choices on discount rates have important implications for the outcomes of economic evaluations of health interventions and policies. In global health, such evaluations typically apply a discount rate of 3 percent for health outcomes and costs, mirroring guidance developed for high‐income countries, notably the United States.The paper investigates the suitability of thes eguidelines for global health (i.e.,with a focus on low‐ and middle‐income countries), and seeks to identify best practice. Our analysis builds on an overview of the academic literature on discounting in health evaluations, existing academic or government‐related guidelines on discounting, are view on discount rates applied in economic evaluations in global health, and cross‐country macroeconomic data. The social discount rate generally applied in global health of 3 percent annually is in consistent with rates of economic growth experienced outside the most advanced economies. Forlow‐ and lower‐middle income countries, a discount rate of at least 5 percent is more appropriate, and one around 4 percent for upper‐middle income countries. Alternative approaches–e.g., motivated by the returns to alternative investments or by the cost of financing–could usefully be applied, dependent on policy context. The current practise could lead to systematic bias toward over‐valuing the future costs and health benefits of interventions. For health economic evaluations in global health, guidelines on discounting need to be adapted to take account of the different economic context of low‐ and middle‐income countries.

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”.

The emergence of personalised, interactive forms of social media has led to questions about the use of these platforms for engagement in politics. Existing research focuses on whether political actors successfully engage citizens, and how social media platforms mobilise young people into offline participation. In this article, we present original survey data on how many young people use social media to do politics: share information, express themselves, and take action. Everyday Facebook use is underpinned by young people’s engaged citizenship norms, and it has the potential to mobilise a broader range of young people. We contextualise the survey findings with qualitative analysis of how young people describe their willingness to engage in politics on social media. There is a general reluctance to take political action due to the possibility of conflict and disagreement within their networks; however, some acknowledge it is a way to bring the disengaged into political debate.

One of the most important goals in current fisheries management is to maintain or restore stocks above levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, it may not be feasible to achieve MSY simultaneously for multiple species because of trade-offs that result from interactions between species, mixed fisheries and the multiple objectives of stakeholders. The premise in this study is that MSY is a concept that needs adaptation, not wholesale replacement. The approach chosen to identify trade-offs and stakeholder preferences involved a process of consulting and discussing options with stakeholders as well as scenario modelling with bio-economic and multi-species models. It is difficult to intuitively anticipate the consequences of complex trade-offs and it is also complicated to address them from a political point of view. However, scenario modelling showed that the current approach of treating each stock separately and ignoring trade-offs may result in unacceptable ecosystem, economic or social effects in North Sea fisheries. Setting FMSY as a management target without any flexibility for compromises may lead to disappointment for some of the stakeholders. To treat FMSY no longer as a point estimate but rather as a “Pretty Good Yield” within sustainable ranges was seen as a promising way forward to avoid unacceptable outcomes when trying to fish all stocks simultaneously at FMSY. This study gives insights on how inclusive governance can help to reach consensus in difficult political processes, and how science can be used to make informed decisions inside a multi-dimensional trade-off space.

Many of the most significant challenges in health care—such as smoking, overeating, and poor adherence to evidence-based guidelines—will only be resolved if we can influence behavior. The traditional policy tools used when thinking about influencing behavior include legislation, regulation, and information provision. Recently, policy analysts have shown interest in policies that “nudge” people in particular directions, drawing on advances in understanding that behavior is strongly influenced in largely automatic ways by the context within which it is placed. This article considers the theoretical basis for why nudges might work and reviews the evidence in health behavior change. The evidence is structured according to the Mindspace framework for behavior change. The conclusion is that insights from behavioral economics offer powerful policy tools for influencing behavior in health care. This article provides public administration practitioners with an accessible summary of this literature, putting these insights into practical use.

In the wake of 9/11 and the assessment of Iraq's WMD, several inquiries placed the blame primarily on the Intelligence Community. Part of the reform that followed was a codification of analytic tradecraft standards into Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203 and the appointment of an analytic ombudsman in the newly created Office of the Director of National Intelligence charged with monitoring the quality of analytic products from across the intelligence community. In this paper we identify three assumptions behind ICD203: (1) tradecraft standards can be employed consistently; (2) tradecraft standards sufficiently capture the key elements of good reasoning; (3) good reasoning leads to more accurate judgments. We then report on two controlled experiments that uncover operational constraints in the reliable application of the ICD203 criteria for the assessment of intelligence products. Despite criticisms of the post-9/11 and post-Iraq reform, our results highlight that ICD203, properly applied, holds potential to improve precision and accountability of intelligence processes and products.

In 2016 it was recognised that cooperation in science would be an important element of the developing relationship between Argentina and the UK. This was possible because of strong historic UK‐Argentina science ties. Also, both countries recognised it was crucial to strive for excellence in science and that international collaboration led to better science outcomes, especially for their respective economies and development. In November 2016 the two science Ministers signed a ‘Statement of Intent’, which identified science focus collaboration areas. These have progressed with the support of industry and Academies, national laboratories and Universities. An important factor in the sustainability of science links is to offer sufficient opportunities for the exchange of people.

We perform transaction-level analyses of entrusted loans – the largest component of shadow banking in China. There are two types – affiliated and non-affiliated. The latter involve a much higher interest rate than the former and official bank loan rates, and largely flow into the real estate industry. Both involve firms with privileged access to cheap capital to channel funds to less privileged firms and increase when credit is tight. The pricing of entrusted loans, especially that of non-affiliated loans, incorporates fundamental and informational risks. Stock market reactions suggest that both affiliated and non-affiliated loans are fairly-compensated investments.

Using daily abnormal currency returns for the universe of countries with flexible exchange rates, we show local currency depreciations ahead of unscheduled, public sovereign debt downgrade announcements. Consistent with the private information hypothesis, the effect is stronger in lower institutional quality countries and holds after we control for concurrent public information and for publicly available rumors about the forthcoming downgrades. Our results persist when abnormal currency returns are adjusted for global carry and dollar risk factors, world equity and bond returns, as well as local stock market returns. Finally, the currency depreciations are permanent, providing evidence for a link between fundamentals and currency markets. 131 3 643 665

The lack of clarity in the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) must be addressed to create a more efficient balance across diverse ecological, economic and social dimensions. Particularly economic and social objectives present at an overarching level must be made explicit and addressed in lower level management measures, in order to link them to biological objectives and allow policy to build a balance across types of objectives. Selecting clear objectives is essential, particularly for policy impact assessment. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how more specific high level objectives to managing fisheries can be derived from stakeholders. The paper first reviews the definition of objectives, from a historical and conceptual perspective. Secondly, it discusses the issues of manageability and acceptability, and finally describes an articulation of the high level objectives derived from extensive stakeholder consultations at European and regional level. The results from workshops at the European level to identify objectives were further examined at regional level for the Baltic and North Seas in additional individual consultations. The German case addresses two seas (Baltic and North Seas), has a complex governance structure (due to federalism) and significant roles for the three types of actors (industry, government and environmental NGOs). The analysis suggests that establishing higher level sustainability objectives within the CFP can help diverse interest groups to develop a consensus on management actions to meet complex social goals.