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Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values ( per doubling CO2).

We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.

The Weissert Event ~133 million years ago marked a profound global cooling that punctuated the Early Cretaceous greenhouse. We present modelling, high-resolution bulk organic carbon isotopes and chronostratigraphically calibrated sea surface temperature (SSTs) based on an organic paleothermometer (the TEX86 proxy), which capture the Weissert Event in the semi-enclosed Weddell Sea basin, offshore Antarctica (paleolatitude ~54 °S; paleowater depth ~500 meters). We document a ~3–4 °C drop in SST coinciding with the Weissert cold end, and converge the Weddell Sea data, climate simulations and available worldwide multi-proxy based temperature data towards one unifying solution providing a best-fit between all lines of evidence. The outcome confirms a 3.0 °C ( ±1.7 °C) global mean surface cooling across the Weissert Event, which translates into a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2 over a period of ~700 thousand years. Consistent with geologic evidence, this pCO2 drop favoured the potential build-up of local polar ice. Modelling and sea surface temperature proxy data from the Weddell Sea document a 3–4 °C drop coinciding with the Early Cretaceous Weissert Event. Temperature data worldwide confirm a 3.0 °C global mean surface cooling, equivalent to a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2, favouring local polar ice.

Highlights • New Early Cretaceous South Atlantic TEX86 samples and climate modelling. • Systematic differences in Cretaceous isoGDGT abundances. • Regional similarities to modern Mediterranean and Red Sea sediments. Regional TEX86-temperature calibration enables model-data congruence for OAE 1a. Abstract The Cretaceous Period (145-66 Ma) provides an opportunity to obtain insights into the adaptation of the climate system to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The organic paleothermometer TEX86 is one of the few proxies available for reconstructing quantitative estimates of upper ocean temperatures of this time period. Here we show that the sedimentary TEX86 signal in the Early Cretaceous North and South Atlantic shows systematic differences to other Cretaceous samples. In particular, the relative increase in the fractional abundances of the crenarchaeol isomer compared to crenarchaeol exhibits similarities with surface sediments from the modern Mediterranean and Red Sea. Dedicated climate model simulations suggest that the formation of warm and saline deep waters in the restricted North and South Atlantic may have influenced TEX86 export dynamics leading to a warm bias in reconstructed upper ocean temperatures. Applying a regional calibration from the modern Mediterranean and Red Sea to corresponding TEX86 data significantly improves the model-data fit for the Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a and the overall comparison with other temperature proxies for the Early Cretaceous. Our results demonstrate the need to consider regional and temporal changes of the TEX86-temperature relation for the reconstruction of deep-time ocean temperatures.

Extensive black shale deposits formed in the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic, supporting the notion that this emerging ocean basin was a globally important site of organic carbon burial. The magnitude of organic carbon burial in marine basins is known to be controlled by various tectonic, oceanographic, hydrological, and climatic processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales, the nature and relative importance of which are poorly understood for the young South Atlantic. Here we present new bulk and molecular geochemical data from an Aptian–Albian sediment record recovered from the deep Cape Basin at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 361, which we combine with general circulation model results to identify driving mechanisms of organic carbon burial. A multimillion-year decrease (i.e., Early Aptian–Albian) in organic carbon burial, reflected in a lithological succession of black shale, gray shale, and red beds, was caused by increasing bottom water oxygenation due to abating hydrographic restriction via South Atlantic–Southern Ocean gateways. These results emphasize basin evolution and ocean gateway development as a decisive primary control on enhanced organic carbon preservation in the Cape Basin at geological timescales (> 1 Myr). The Early Aptian black shale sequence comprises alternations of shales with high (> 6 %) and relatively low (∼ 3.5 %) organic carbon content of marine sources, the former being deposited during the global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, as well as during repetitive intervals before and after OAE 1a. In all cases, these short-term intervals of enhanced organic carbon burial coincided with strong influxes of sediments derived from the proximal African continent, indicating closely coupled climate–land–ocean interactions. Supported by our model results, we show that fluctuations in weathering-derived nutrient input from the southern African continent, linked to changes in orbitally driven humidity and aridity, were the underlying drivers of repetitive episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial in the deep Cape Basin. These results suggest that deep marine environments of emerging ocean basins responded sensitively and directly to short-term fluctuations in riverine nutrient fluxes. We explain this relationship using the lack of wide and mature continental shelf seas that could have acted as a barrier or filter for nutrient transfer from the continent into the deep ocean.

Highlights • Nd isotope records from the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean. • New Early Cretaceous general circulation model. • Opening history of gateways on the Falkland Plateau. • Gateway opening controlled organic carbon burial. Organic carbon burial is an important driver of carbon cycle and climate dynamics on geological and shorter time scales. Ocean basins emerging during the Early Cretaceous break-up of Gondwana were primary sites of organic carbon burial, implying that their tectonic and oceanographic evolution may have affected trends and perturbations in global climate via changes in local organic carbon burial. Assessing the role of individual ocean basins in the global carbon-climate context requires a sound understanding of the processes that induced large-scale changes in carbon burial and the timing of these changes. Here we reconstruct the oceanographic evolution, and its links to organic carbon burial, in the Barremian to Albian South Atlantic and Southern Ocean basins, which may have acted as carbon sinks of global importance. Our reconstruction is based on combined seawater neodymium isotope and sedimentological records obtained from multiple deep sea drill sites and a new general circulation model. Deep water circulation within and between those basins was primarily controlled by the opening of the shallow Falkland Plateau Gateway (between ∼118 Ma and ∼113 Ma) and the deep Georgia Basin Gateway (by ∼110 Ma), for which we provide new age constraints based on biostratigraphic and carbon isotope data. The opening of these gateways was accompanied by local to basin-wide decreases in organic carbon burial, suggesting that ocean circulation affected the oxygenation state via changes in deep water ventilation. Although our data do not provide quantitative information on the impact of changes in regional organic carbon burial on the global carbon cycle, the synchronicity between the reduction of organic carbon burial in the South Atlantic basin and global warming during the Early Albian points to a strong causal relationship.

Periodic changes in sediment composition are usually ascribed to insolation forcing controlled by Earth’s orbital parameters. During the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum at 97–91 Myr ago (Ma), a 37–50-kyr-long cycle that is generally believed to reflect obliquity forcing dominates the sediment record. Here, we use a numerical ocean model to show that a cycle of this length can be generated by marine biogeochemical processes without applying orbital forcing. According to our model, the restricted proto-North Atlantic and Tethys basins were poorly ventilated and oscillated between iron-rich and sulfidic (euxinic) states. The Panthalassa Basin was fertilized by dissolved iron originating from the proto-North Atlantic. Hence, it was less oxygenated while the proto-North Atlantic was in an iron-rich state and better oxygenated during euxinic periods in the proto-North Atlantic. This redox see-saw was strong enough to create significant changes in atmospheric $$p_{\mathrm {CO}_2}$$ . We conclude that most of the variability in the mid-Cretaceous ocean–atmosphere system can be ascribed to the internal redox see-saw and its response to external orbital forcing. An internal redox see-saw between the Panthalassa Basin and the proto-North Atlantic can explain cyclic changes in the sediment record throughout the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum 97 to 91 million years ago, according to simulations with a numerical ocean model.

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