1. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
- Author
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Antony J Payne, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick M. Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar S Asay-Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Richard I. Cullather, Joshua K Cuzzone, Christophe dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Heiko Goelzer, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Yves Larour, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Christopher M Little, Daniel P Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen Price, Aurelien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Martin Rückamp, Nicole -J. Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald A Slater, Robin Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Sainan Sun, Lev Tarasov, Luke Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, Thomas Zwinger, University of Bristol [Bristol], University at Buffalo [SUNY] (SUNY Buffalo), State University of New York (SUNY), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Columbia University [New York], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), University of Alaska [Fairbanks] (UAF), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Hokkaido University Hospital [Sapporo], University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), King‘s College London, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agree-ment No 869304, PROTECT contribu-tion number 4., Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )
- Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,13. Climate action ,Glaciologie ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,Sciences exactes et naturelles - Abstract
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
- Published
- 2021
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