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Attribution has become a recurring issue in discussions about Loss and Damage (L&D;). In this highly-politicised context, attribution is often associated with responsibility and blame; and linked to debates about liability and compensation. The aim of attribution science, however, is not to establish responsibility, but to further scientific understanding of causal links between elements of the Earth System and society. This research into causality could inform the management of climate-related risks through improved understanding of drivers of relevant hazards, or, more widely, vulnerability and exposure; with potential benefits regardless of political positions on L&D.; Experience shows that it is nevertheless difficult to have open discussions about the science in the policy sphere. This is not only a missed opportunity, but also problematic in that it could inhibit understanding of scientific results and uncertainties, potentially leading to policy planning which does not have sufficient scientific evidence to support it. In this chapter, we first explore this dilemma for science-policy dialogue, summarising several years of research into stakeholder perspectives of attribution in the context of L&D.; We then aim to provide clarity about the scientific research available, through an overview of research which might contribute evidence about the causal connections between anthropogenic climate change and losses and damages, including climate science, but also other fields which examine other drivers of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Finally, we explore potential applications of attribution research, suggesting that an integrated and nuanced approach has potential to inform planning to avert, minimise and address losses and damages. The key messages are In the political context of climate negotiations, questions about whether losses and damages can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change are often linked to issues of responsibility, blame, and liability. Attribution science does not aim to establish responsibility or blame, but rather to investigate drivers of change. Attribution science is advancing rapidly, and has potential to increase understanding of how climate variability and change is influencing slow onset and extreme weather events, and how this interacts with other drivers of risk, including socio-economic drivers, to influence losses and damages. Over time, some uncertainties in the science will be reduced, as the anthropogenic climate change signal becomes stronger, and understanding of climate variability and change develops. However, some uncertainties will not be eliminated. Uncertainty is common in science, and does not prevent useful applications in policy, but might determine which applications are appropriate. It is important to highlight that in attribution studies, the strength of evidence varies substantially between different kinds of slow onset and extreme weather events, and between regions. Policy-makers should not expect the later emergence of conclusive evidence about the influence of climate variability and change on specific incidences of losses and damages; and, in particular, should not expect the strength of evidence to be equal between events, and between countries. Rather than waiting for further confidence in attribution studies, there is potential to start working now to integrate science into policy and practice, to help understand and tackle drivers of losses and damages, informing prevention, recovery, rehabilitation, and transformation.

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored.We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing.We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001–2050 compared with a 1951–2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5–4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times.Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

Global warming is an alarming reality and likely leads to an increase of multiple pressures on socio-economic systems. However, in high-mountain regions it might also become an opportunity to adapt existing hydropower schemes and future projects to this new reality. In the Alps, the melting of glaciers first produces over the near future an increase of the average annual discharge depending on glacier and catchment characteristics, especially during the summer season. Nevertheless after a certain time, significant decrease of runoff related to glacier melting must be considered for hydropower management. Moreover, the melted glaciers free new alpine valley areas, which have a potential for the construction of new dams and reservoirs. The opportunity to build new dams and hydropower plants downstream of retreating glaciers is studied systematically in Switzerland within the framework of the National Research Program on Sustainable Water Management (NRP61) under the project “New lakes in deglaciating highmountain areas: climate-related development and challenges for sustainable use (NELAK)”. The developed methodology is based on several prediction models. Regional climate models provide spatially distributed rainfall and temperature scenarios for the next 50 years. The RS3.0 CLIMATE rainfall-runoff hydrological model computes the glacier evolution, the river discharge at the outlet of the catchment area as well as the hydropower production of the new lakes. Another model (GlabTop) is used to predict the future topography and geomorphology underneath the melting glaciers, in order to define the optimal locations of the future dams and reservoirs. As a case study the Corbassière glacier near the Mauvoisin reservoir in Valais is presented. The opportunity of the construction of a new dam and a hydropower plant is studied, as well as its economic benefit and its impacts on the environment. The result of the case study provides a basis to assess the potential of investing in such projects to ensure the Swiss hydroelectricity production also in future.

Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential., Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15 (4), ISSN:1561-8633, ISSN:1684-9981

Many high-mountain environments of the world have seen dramatic changes in the past years and decades. Glaciers are retreating and downwasting, often at a dramatically fast pace, leaving large amounts of potentially unstable debris, moraines and rock slopes behind. Although in the main invisible to the eye of an observer, permafrost, i.e. rock and debris with permanent zero or subzero temperatures, is thawing. Several slopes have become unstable and landslides potentially related to permafrost degradation have received wide-ranging attention from both scientists and the media. A number of those landslides can be related to the effects of recent changes in the cryosphere, which are ultimately driven by changes in climatic parameters, in particular temperature and precipitation.

This paper describes recent exceptional slope failures in high-mountain, glacial environments: the 2002 Kolka–Karmadon rock–ice avalanche in the Caucasus, a series of ice–rock avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, the 2005 Mt. Steller rock–ice avalanche in Alaska, and ice and rock avalanches at Monte Rosa, Italy in 2005 and 2007. Deposit volumes range from 10 6 to 10 8 m 3 and include rock, ice and snow. Here we focus on thermal aspects of these failures reflecting the involvement of glacier ice and permafrost at all sites, suggesting that thermal perturbations likely contributed to the slope failures. We use surface and troposphere air temperatures, near-surface rock temperatures, satellite thermal data, and recent 2D and 3D thermal modeling studies to document thermal conditions at the landslide sites. We distinguish between thermal perturbations of volcanic-geothermal and climatic origin, and thermal perturbations related to glacier–permafrost interaction. The data and analysis support the view that recent, current and future climatic change increases the likelihood of large slope failures in steep glacierized and permafrost terrain. However, some important aspects of these settings such as the geology and tectonic environment remain poorly understood, making the identification of future sites of large slope instabilities difficult. In view of the potentially large natural disasters that can be caused by such slope failures, improved data and understanding are needed.

Lahars are among the most serious and far-reaching volcanic hazards. In regions with potential interactions of lahars with populated areas and human structures the assessment of the related hazards is crucial for undertaking appropriate mitigating actions and reduce the associated risks. Modeling of lahars has become an important tool in such assessments, in particular where the geologic record of past events is insufficient. Mass-flow modeling strongly relies on digital terrain data. Availability of digital elevation models (DEMs), however, is often limited and thus an obstacle to lahar modeling. Remote-sensing technology has now opened new perspectives in generating DEMs. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of DEMs derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) for lahar modeling on Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico. Two GIS-based models are used for lahar modeling, LAHARZ and a flow-routing-based debris-flow model (modified single-flow direction model, MSF), both predicting areas potentially affected by lahars. Results of the lahar modeling show that both the ASTER and SRTM DEMs are basically suitable for use with LAHARZ and MSF. Flow-path prediction is found to be more reliable with SRTM data, though with a coarser spatial resolution. Errors of the ASTER DEM affecting the prediction of flow paths due to the sensor geometry are associated with deeply incised gorges with north-facing slopes. LAHARZ is more sensitive to errors of the ASTER DEM than the MSF model. Lahar modeling with the ASTER DEM results in a more finely spaced predicted inundation area but does not add any significant information in comparison with the SRTM DEM. Lahars at Popocatepetl are modeled with volumes of 1 × 10 5 to 8 × 10 6 m 3 based on ice-melt scenarios of the glaciers on top of the volcano and data on recent and historical lahar events. As regards recently observed lahars, the travel distance of lahars of corresponding volume modeled with LAHARZ falls short by 2 to 4 km. An important finding is that the travel distance of potential lahar events modeled with LAHARZ may differ by about 2 km when using SRTM or ASTER data because of varying lateral flow-volume distribution. As a consequence, verification and sensitivity analysis of the DEM is fundamental to deriving hazard maps from predicted modeled inundation areas. Because of the global coverage of this type of remote-sensing data, the conclusion that both SRTM and ASTER-derived DEMs are feasible for lahar modeling opens a wide field of application in volcanic-hazards studies.

Forschungsbericht des Nationalen Forschungsprogramms NFP, 61, ISBN:978-3-7281-3533-9, ISBN:978-3-7281-3533-9 (Printausgabe), ISBN:978-3-7281-3534-6

Landslide early warning systems (EWS) are an important tool to reduce landslide risks, especially where the potential for structural protection measures is limited. However, design, implementation, and successful operation of a landslide EWS is complex and has not been achieved in many cases. Critical problems are uncertainties related to landslide triggering conditions, successful implementation of emergency protocols, and the response of the local population. We describe here the recent implementation of a landslide EWS for the Combeima valley in Colombia, a region particularly affected by landslide hazards. As in many other cases, an insufficient basis of data (rainfall, soil measurements, landslide event record) and related uncertainties represent a difficult complication. To be able to better assess the influence of the different EWS components, we developed a numerical model that simulates the EWS in a simplified yet integrated way. The results show that the expected landslide-induced losses depend nearly exponentially on the errors in precipitation measurements. Stochastic optimization furthermore suggests an increasing adjustment of the rainfall landslide-triggering threshold for an increasing observation error. These modeling studies are a first step toward a more generic and integrated approach that bears important potential for substantial improvements in design and operation of a landslide EWS.

On 25 September 2008, seismo meters operated by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) registered strong ground shaking. On the basis of previous experience with such large seismic signals, AVO personnel were able to rapidly identify the seismic event as an avalanche. Two days later, an AVO overflight of Iliamna volcano, near Alaska's Cook Inlet, confirmed that a massive chunk of glacial ice and rock had broken free from its position on the upper flanks of the volcano, generating a massive avalanche that could have buried an entire town had it occurred in a more populated area. Rapidly moving rock, ice, or debris avalanches, such as the one that occurred on Iliamna, can be highly destructive and deadly. Similar events have caused the deaths of hundreds to thousands of people [Keefer and Larsen, 2007]. In general, avalanches that move more than 1 million cubic meters of material are rare. However, a remarkable series of large avalanches recently occurred in Alaska and the Caucasus, providing a new opportunity to better understand this type of hazard. All events initiated in steep mountain slopes, involved rock and significant amounts of ice, and traveled for 10–35 kilometers.

A massive rock/ice avalanche of about 100x106m3 volume took place on the northern slope of the Kazbek massif, North Ossetia, Russian Caucasus, on 20 September 2002. The avalanche started as a slope failure, that almost completely entrained Kolka glacier, traveled down the Genaldon valley for 20km, was stopped at the entrance of the Karmadon gorge, and was finally succeeded by a distal mudflow which continued for another 15km. The event caused the death of ca. 140 people and massive destruction. Several aspects of the event are extraordinary, i.e. the large ice volume involved, the extreme initial acceleration, the high flow velocity, the long travel distance and particularly the erosion of a valley-type glacier, a process not known so far. The analysis of these aspects is essential for process understanding and worldwide glacial hazard assessments. This study is therefore concerned with the analysis of processes and the evaluation of the most likely interpretations. The analysis is based on QuickBird satellite images, field observations, and ice-, flow- and thermo-mechanical considerations. QuickBird is currently the best available satellite sensor in terms of ground resolution (0.6 m) and opens new perspectives for assessment of natural hazards. Evaluation of the potential of QuickBird images for assessment of high-mountain hazards shows the feasibility for detailed avalanche mapping and analysis of flow dynamics, far beyond the capabilities of conventional satellite remote sensing. It is shown that the avalanche was characterized by two different flows. The first one was comparable to a hyperconcentrated flow and was immediately followed by a flow with a much lower concentration of water involving massive volumes of ice. The high mobility of the avalanche is likely related to fluidization effects at the base of the moving ice/debris mass with high pore pressures and a continuous supply of water due to frictional melting of ice. The paper concludes with implications of the Kolka/Karmadon event for worldwide glacial hazard assessments. It is emphasized that situations with large glacierized high-mountain walls with potentially unstable glaciers within impact distance need special attention and monitoring efforts.

Glacial hazards such as ice avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, and debris flows have caused severe damage in populated mountain regions such as the Swiss Alps. Assessment of such hazards must consider basic glaciological, geomorphological, and hydraulic principles together with experience gained from previous events. An approach is presented here to assess the maximum event magnitude and probability of occurrence of glacial hazards. Analysis of magnitude is based on empirical relationships derived from published case histories from the Swiss Alps and other mountain regions. Probability of occurrence is difficult to estimate because of rapid changes in the nature of glacial systems, the low frequency of events, and the high complexity of the involved processes. Here, the probability is specified in qualitative and systematic terms based on indicators such as dam type, geometry, and freeboard height (for glacial lakes) and tendency of avalanche repetition, precursor events, and increased water supply to the glacier bed (for ice avalanche events). The assessment procedures are applied to a recent lake outburst with subsequent debris flow and to an ice avalanche in the Swiss Alps. The results yield reasonable event maxima that were not exceeded by actual events. The methods provide first-order assessments and may be applied in dynamic mountain environments where population and infrastructure growth require continuous evaluation of hazards.Key words: glacial hazards, lake outburst, debris flow, ice avalanche, hazard assessment procedure, probability of occurrence.

Glacier lakes are a common phenomenon in high mountain areas. Outbursts from glacier lakes have repeatedly caused the loss of human lives as well as severe damage to local infrastructure. In several high mountain ranges around the world, a grave uncertainty about the hazard potential of glacier lakes still exists, especially with respect to the effects of accelerating rates of glacier retreat as a consequence of atmospheric warming. Area-wide detection and modeling of glacier lake hazard potentials is, therefore, a major challenge. In this study, an approach integrating three scale levels allows for the progressive focus on critical glacier lakes. Remote sensing methods for application in glacier lake hazard assessment are presented, and include channel indexing, data fusion, and change detection. Each method matches the requirements of a certain scale level. For estimating potential disaster amplitudes, assessments must be made of maximum discharge and runout distance of outbursts floods and debris flows. Existing empirical relations are evaluated and complementary ones as derived from available data are proposed. Tests with observations from a recent outburst event from a moraine-dammed lake in the Swiss Alps show the basic applicability of the proposed techniques and the usefulness of empirical relations for first hazard assessments. In particular, the observed runout distance of the debris flow resulting from the outburst does not exceed the empirically estimated maximum runout distance. A list of decision criteria and related remote sensing techniques are discussed in conclusion. Such a list is an essential tool for evaluating the hazard potential of a lake. A systematic application of remote sensing based methods for glacier lake hazard assessment is recommended.Key words: glacier lake outburst, hazard potential, remote sensing, empirical parameters.