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The Lucas tree model [Lucas RE Jr (1978) Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica 46(6):1429–1445.] lies at the heart of modern macrofinance. At its core, it provides an analysis of the equilibrium price of a long-lived asset in an exchange economy where consumption is the objective and the sole purpose of the asset is to smooth consumption through time. Experimental tests of the model use a particular instantiation of the Lucas model. Here we adopt a different instantiation to the first two, extending their analyses from a two-period oscillating world to a three-period cyclical world; this is partly to test the robustness of their results. We also go one step further and compare this solution (to a consumption-smoothing problem), in which consumption claims are traded via the long-lived asset, with the alternative solution provided by a market, in which agents can directly trade (short-lived) consumption claims between periods. We find that the latter exchange economy is more efficient in encouraging consumption smoothing than the economy with the long-lived asset. We find evidence of uncompetitive trading in both markets. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, decision analysis.

We study how financial reforms affect the extent of consumption smoothing in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of an emerging economy. Consistent with the empirical literature and reform efforts in South Korea and South Africa, we emphasize the relation between consumer credit and durable purchases, and model reforms as the relaxation of the collateral constraint on lower income households. We find that the relaxation of the collateral constraint accounts for a substantial share of the decline in consumption smoothing experienced in South Korea and South Africa.

This paper studies distributional consequences of equity injections that are funded with financial-sector levies. In the model economy, financial intermediation supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing, subject to an equity requirement. When intermediary equity is low, then an equity injection involves a trade-off between increasing credit supply immediately and distortive levies that reduce credit supply in the future. I find that equity injections redistribute from poor to wealthy households, even though average welfare increases. While wealthy savers benefit greatly from an increased return on savings, poor households suffer from lower future wages.

Analyzing account-level data from an account aggregator, we find that households increase consumption when they receive expected tax refunds, as if they face liquidity constraints. However, these same households smooth consumption when making payments in other years, primarily by transferring funds among liquid accounts. Even households carrying credit card debt smooth consumption when making payments, and even highly liquid households spend out of refunds. This behavior is inconsistent with pure liquidity constraints or hand-to-mouth behavior and is most consistent with a mental accounting life-cycle model. (JEL D12, E21, G51, H24, H31)

Using state-level data for the U.S. housing market over the period of 1975:Q1-2012:Q2, we show that the consumption-wealth ratios derived from aggregate wealth (cay) and disaggregate (i.e. financial and housing) wealth (cday) are strong predictors of real housing returns (and their volatility). Additionally, we find that, barring the extreme ends of their respective conditional distributions, such effect is stronger for housing return volatility than housing returns. All in all, our findings show that state-level regressions can recover a large degree of heterogeneity that country-level exercises typically ignore. Such heterogeneity is prominent not only in terms of consumption smoothing behavior, but also with regard to housing return predictability.

Poor households often rely on transfers from their social networks for consumption smoothing, yet there is limited evidence on how antipoverty programs affect informal transfers. This paper exploits the randomized rollout of BRAC’s ultra-poor graduation program in Bangladesh and panel data covering over 21,000 households over seven years to study the program’s effects on interhousehold transfers. The program crowds out informal transfers received by the targeted households, but this is driven mainly by outside-village transfers. Treated ultra-poor households become more likely to both give and receive transfers to/from wealthier households within their village; and less likely to receive transfers from their employers. As a result, the reciprocity of their within-village transfers increases. The findings imply that, within rural communities, there is positive assortative matching by socio-economic status. A reduction in poverty enables households to engage more in reciprocal transfer arrangements and lowers the interlinkage of their labor with informal insurance.

Consumption smoothing and temporal price arbitrage are the two main economic motives for grain storage in semi-subsistence economies. Nonetheless, little has been documented on the determinants of households’ grain storage behavior. Using a rich panel data from maize producing households in Ethiopia, this paper investigates the determinants of households’ decision to store grain for consumption and/or for the market. We found that grain storage is mainly determined by climatic factors, technological innovations, and shocks. Grain storage for consumption and for the markets are not mutually exclusive decisions. While the decisions made by the households to store maize for consumption and for the markets are influenced by a host of similar factors, the effects of climatic factors and infrastructure are found to be heterogeneous.

Using regional level panel data of three developed countries, comprising Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, the study investigates the response of consumption smoothing to housing capital gains. T...

This paper studies a consumption–investment problem involving health shock risk, perishable consumption, and consumption of housing services. Additionally to a risk-free asset and a stock index, the agent can invest in real estate. I analyze the impact of health shocks on the optimal consumption and investment decisions in model specifications with and without the possibility to buy critical illness insurance. I discuss the influence of critical illness insurance on the optimal strategy and analyze the drivers of the optimal critical illness insurance demand. The results indicate that health shock risk has potentially devastating consequences, especially for young agents. It turns out that critical illness insurance is an excellent instrument for hedging health shock risk and for consumption smoothing across different health states. Optimal critical illness insurance demand is decreasing in financial wealth and increasing in human wealth. Real estate prices have a minor influence on optimal critical illness insurance demand.

In this paper, we use a small open economy model with nontradable goods and time-varying interest rates to investigate the sources of fluctuations in Taiwan’s current account. The correlation coefficient between the implied path of the current account generated from our model and the actual current account data exceeds 0.9, while tests of the cross-equation restrictions also support the model-implied present value relationship between the current account and other macroeconomic variables. We find the consumption smoothing channel, based on the discounted sum of the expected future net output growth, is the main channel for current account adjustment in Taiwan. Expected changes in the real effective exchange rate also account for much of the variation in the current account.

We employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank‐level data to estimate the effects of bank funding stress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. We show that households whose banks were more exposed to funding shocks report lower levels of nonmortgage liabilities. This, however, only translates into lower levels of consumption for low‐income households. Hence, adverse credit supply shocks are associated with significant heterogeneous effects.

We show that three factors combine to explain the mean magnitude of excess sensitivity reported in studies estimating the consumption response to income changes: the use of macro data, publication bias, and liquidity constraints. When micro data are used, publication bias is corrected for, and households under examination have substantial liquidity, the literature implies little evidence of deviations from consumption smoothing. The result holds when we control for 45 additional variables reflecting the methods employed by researchers and use Bayesian model averaging to account for model uncertainty. The estimates produced by this literature are also systematically affected by the size of the change in income and the chosen measure of consumption.

In this paper, we investigate the effect of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on household consumption smoothing in China. We use four waves of the biennial China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2016, during which time DFI has significantly developed alongside financial technology across China. We split household income shocks into permanent and transitory components, and evaluate if DFI may help households to buffer against these shocks. We find that households are not able to insure against permanent shocks to income, but they can smooth approximately 70 percent of transitory shocks to income. We also find that DFI has diminished households’ ability to insure against transitory income shocks. This is partly because online purchase may lead to the oversensitivity of consumption to income. In addition, we find that contrary to DFI, traditional financial sector development contributes to better household consumption smoothing against transitory income shocks.

We analyze the effect of retirement on households’ joint consumption spending and home production decisions using a micro panel with detailed spending and time use categories of US households. For causal identification, we use panel data regressions. Our results suggest that the spending drop at retirement is partially compensated by increases in home production of the retiring household member. Home production can particularly make up for losses in spending categories that are well-substitutable by home production, although only about 12% of total pre-retirement consumption spending, but there is no evidence that households fully replace consumption spending at retirement. In a Life-Cycle Model, we find no empirical evidence for full consumption smoothing at retirement.

Historians have frequently suggested that droughts helped facilitate the African slave trade. By introducing a previously unused dataset on 19th century rainfall levels in Africa, I provide the first empirical answer to this hypothesis. I show that negative rainfall shocks and long-run shifts in the mean level of rainfall increased the number of slaves exported from a given region and may have had a persistent impact on the level of development today. Using geocoded data on 19th century African conflicts, I show that these drought conditions also increased the likelihood of conflict, but only in the slave exporting regions of Africa. I also explore the role of household desperation, the internal African slave market, and disease outbreaks in explaining the negative relationship between droughts and slave exports. I find limited evidence for for these alternative mechanisms, with household desperation having the most empirical support. These results contribute to our understanding of the process of selection into the African slave trade.

We show that the transition from an economy characterized by idiosyncratic income shocks and incomplete markets a la Aiyagari (1994) to markets where state-contingent assets are available but costly (in order to purchase a contingent asset, households have to pay a fixed participation cost) leads to a large increase of wealth inequality. Using a standard calibration our model can match a Gini of 0.93 close to the level of wealth inequality observed in the US. In addition, under this level of participation costs, wealth inequality is particularly sensitive to income inequality. We label this phenomenon as the Inequality Accelerator. We demonstrate how costly access to contingent asset-markets generates these effects. The key insight stems from the non-monotonic relationship between wealth and desired degree of insurance, in an economy with participation costs. Poor borrowing constrained households remain uninsured, middle-class households are almost perfectly insured, while rich households decide to self-insure by purchasing risk-free assets. This feature of households' risk management has crucial effects in asset prices, wealth inequality, and social mobility.

In many markets supply contracts include a series of small, regular payments made by consumers and a single, large bonus that consumers receive at some point during the contractual period. But, if for instance its production costs exceed its value to consumers, such a bonus creates inefficiencies. We offer a novel explanation for the frequent occurrence of bonus contracts, which builds on a model of attentional focusing. Our main result identifies market conditions under which bonus contracts should be observed: while a monopolist pays a bonus to consumers—if at all—only for low-value goods, firms standing in competition always—i.e., independent of the consumers’ valuation—offer bonus contracts. Thus, competition does not eliminate but rather exacerbates inefficiencies arising from contracting with focused agents. Common contract schemes in markets for electricity, telephony, and bank accounts are consistent with our model, but cannot be reconciled with alternative approaches such as models on consumption smoothing, (quasi-)hyperbolic discounting, or switching costs.

We study optimal long-run capital taxation in a closed economy with heterogeneity in agents’ time-discount factors and collateralized borrowing. The collateral constraint distorts intertemporal optimization margins and therefore the tax system serves to alleviate the distortion on top of financing government expenditure. The discrepancy between the private and the social discount factors pushes for a capital subsidy, while the collateral constraint pushes for a capital tax. Consumption smoothing motives result in a strictly positive capital tax in the long run, while when they are muted, the two effects counter-balance and the tax is zero.

A number of researchers and policymakers have revealed the short- and medium-term impacts of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs; however, accumulation of full-scale evaluations of their long-term impact is ongoing. To contribute to filling the gap, this study empirically examines the vulnerability of rural households in Mexico and how CCT has recently impacted them. Using two Mexican rural household panel datasets from the 2000s, I adopt Kurosaki’s (2006) version of Townsend’s (1994) risk-sharing model with instrumental variable methods, which enables a greater focus on household welfare decline. The empirical results confirm that CCT played a certain role in reducing household vulnerability in the 2000s; however considering the situation after the global crisis in 2008 and the exact mechanism through which this occurs remains subject to further examination. JEL classifications: O12, D12, O54, Keywords: Consumption smoothing, Household vulnerability, PROGRESA-Oportunidades

Neoliberalism as economic orthodoxy has facilitated the onset of social and public policy that is required to ‘fit’ with the common sense of our times. This article critiques the growth of government-supported financial capability programs in Australia. We explore the experiences of a sample of rural South Australians who have accessed microcredit. We found that microcredit provides an avenue for poverty survival by reducing the stresses associated with financial shocks through consumption smoothing, yet that the extent to which microcredit contributes to addressing poverty and inequality is questionable. We critique how the discourse of financial resilience aims to produce deserving neoliberal citizens who are moving toward self-reliance. We conclude that effort should be directed at developing a structural, proportionate universal approach that does not rely on financially vulnerable individuals navigating a regulatory environment that rewards and punishes in accordance to a market logic.

We analyze the effects of government-mandated severance payments in a rich life-cycle model with search-matching frictions in the labor market, risk-averse agents and imperfect insurance against idiosyncratic shocks. Our model emphasizes a tension between worker-firm wage bargains and consumption smoothing: entry wages respond to expected future severance payments by tilting downwards, which runs counter to having a smooth consumption path. Quantitatively, we find that these wage-shifting effects are sizable enough for severance payments to produce large welfare losses. Our assessment contrasts sharply with previous studies that restricted the extent of worker-firm bargaining to analyze the welfare implications of severance payments.

This article examines the heterogeneous impact of state exemption laws and state garnishment laws on bankruptcy. Using a new household-level dataset, my empirical specification simultaneously examines the impact these laws have on a household’s bankruptcy decision as well as a household’s assets and unsecured debts. I find that high exemption laws have a positive impact on bankruptcy and that this effect is increasing in assets. Additionally, I find that high garnishment rates have a positive impact on bankruptcy, which is increasing in income. Moreover, I examine the policy implications of standardizing state exemption laws and state garnishments laws. Understanding the heterogeneous effects of these laws is crucial as they suggest that a household with a given set of financial characteristics will seek bankruptcy relief if it resides in one state but will have to use alternative consumption smoothing measures if it lives in a different state.

In this paper, we analyze and compare the finite sample properties of alternative factor extraction procedures in the context of non-stationary Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs). On top of considering procedures already available in the literature, we extend the hybrid method based on the combination of principal components and Kalman filter and smoothing algorithms to non-stationary models. We show that if the idiosyncratic noises are stationary, procedures based on extracting the factors using the non-stationary original series work better than those based on differenced variables. We apply the methodology to the analysis of cross-border risk sharing by fitting non-stationary DFM to aggregate Gross Domestic Product and consumption of a set of 21 industrialized countries from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The goal is to check if international risk sharing is a short- or long-run issue. Financial support from the Spanish Government Projects ECO2015-70331-C2-1-R and ECO2015-70331-C2-2-R (MINECO/FEDER) is gratefully acknowledged. This paper was started while Pilar Poncela was still at Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. We are very grateful for the detailed comments of an anonymous referee which have been very useful to improve the presentation of this paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed neither to the European Commission nor to INEGI.

We study the effects of SNAP participation on food insecurity allowing for a priori unspecified heterogeneous treatment effects. Using finite mixture models, we identify a low food security class comprising almost 60% of the samples for whom SNAP participation increases the probability of no food insecurity by 14–37 percentage points across specifications and decreases the probability of very high insecurity by 14–35 percentage points. We find that SNAP participation has a small and statistically insignificant effect on food insecurity for the remaining 40% of the population. By examining posterior probabilities of class membership, we discover that individuals in the latter class are less likely to report unmet food needs and live in larger households where more consumption smoothing may be possible.

We study the spending profile of workers who experience both a positive transitory income shock (lump-sum severance pay) and a negative permanent income shock (layoff). Using de-identified expenditure and employment data from Brazil, we show that workers increase spending at layoff by 35 percent despite experiencing a 14 percent long-term loss. We find high sensitivity of spending to cash-on-hand across consumption categories and for several sources of variation, including predictable income drops. A model with present-biased workers can rationalize our findings, and highlights the importance of the timing of benefit disbursement for the consumption-smoothing gains of job displacement insurance policies. (JEL D12, G51, J65, J63, O12)

Does the ability to pledge an asset as collateral, after purchase, affect its price? This paper identifies the impact of collateral service flows on house prices, exploiting a plausibly exogenous constitutional amendment in Texas that legalized home equity loans in 1998. The law change increased Texas house prices 4 $\%$; this is price-based evidence that households are credit-constrained and value home equity loans to facilitate consumption smoothing. Prices rose more in locations with inelastic supply, higher prelaw house prices, higher income, and lower unemployment. These estimates reveal that richer households value the option to pledge their home as collateral more strongly.

We incorporate the division of income between capital and labor into analysis on the relationship between inequality and growth. Using historical data, we document that changes in the top 1 % income shares are positively associated with subsequent growth of per capita GDP when the capital share of income is low, whereas under high capital share, the association is negative. We show that these findings are compatible with a theoretical analysis that emphasises how changes in the distribution of income translate into the accumulation of capital and overall economic activity through the interplay between precautionary saving motives and consumption smoothing. We also investigate how accounting for financial frictions affects our main findings.

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.

The ability to work from home can be critical during pandemics. We calculate an index that measures the possibility of working from home based on the characteristics of the pre-Covid-19 pandemic distribution of occupations and on internet access at home, using microdata for Mexico. Focusing on households with two partners employed in nonessential occupations, we show that there is high within-household correlation in the possibility of working remotely, which is likely to be positively associated with job stability during the pandemic. Poor families, with low access to formal credit and who rely heavily on informal mechanisms for consumption smoothing have lower chances of working remotely than richer families with higher access to formal credit. High within-household correlation in the work-from-home index restricts the likelihood of intra-household risk-sharing and consumption smoothing, and is likely to contribute to an increase in inequality., Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales

In this paper, we investigate the link between intra-household resource allocation and familial ties between household members. We show that, within the same geographic, economic and social environments, households where members have "stronger" familial ties (e.g. a nuclear family household) achieve near Pareto efficient allocation of productive resources and Pareto efficient allocation of consumption while households with "weaker" familial ties (e.g. an extended family household) do not. We propose a theoretical model of the household based on the idea that altruism between household members vary with familial ties which generates predictions consistent with the observed empirical patterns.

A strand of research holds the view that restricting access to credit to regulate over-borrowing can worsen consumers’ financial condition. Another strand of research holds the view that access to credit in the developing countries with subprime credit markets is determined by social groupings and ethnic affiliations. By merging these two strands of research, we investigate the impact of Andhra Pradesh microfinance act (2010) on the consumption expenditure of marginalised social groups and the upper caste Hindu groups in India. We construct an aggregated district level panel data for eight quarters and estimate the impact of unanticipated policy change. The results of our analysis show that the sudden restriction of access to credit has relatively larger impact on the consumption levels of the marginalised social groups: lower castes, tribes, and Muslims. The findings also confirm the failure of contingency policy enacted for smoothing consumption. Postprint

We hypothesize that family firms’ dividend policies are in part determined by a consumption smoothing motive of family shareholders. Our paper tests this hypothesis using a Japanese dividend tax reform in 2011 which increased the dividend tax rate for only some groups of major family shareholders. In this quasi-experimental setting, we find that family firms with non-executive family shareholders, who were likely rentiers, counteracted the tax increase by increasing dividends. This behavior cannot be explained by standard theories of dividend policy, which predict a lower dividend payout, and highlights a unique governance problem in family firms.

This paper estimates the importance of temptation (Gul and Pesendorfer, 2001) for consumption smoothing and asset accumulation in a structural life-cycle model. We use two complementary estimation strategies: ?rst, we estimate the Euler equation of this model; and second we match liquid and illiquid wealth accumulation using the Method of Simulated Moments. We ?nd that the utility cost of temptation is one-quarter of the utility bene?t of consumption. Further, we show that allowing for temptation is crucial for correctly estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: estimates of the EIS are substantially higher than without temptation. Finally, our Method of Simulated Moments estimation is able to match well the life-cycle accumulation pro?les for both liquid and illiquid wealth only if temptation is part of the preference speci?cation. Our ?ndings on the importance of temptation are robust to the di?erent estimation strategies. Revised July 2020

Modest, but persistent, transfers of cash to extremely poor households can provide both social and environmental benefits., Solutions to poverty and ecosystem degradation are often framed as conflicting. We ask whether Indonesia’s national anti-poverty program, which transfers cash to hundreds of thousands of poor households, reduced deforestation as a side benefit. Although the program has no direct link to conservation, we estimate that it reduced tree cover loss in villages by 30% (95% confidence interval, 10 to 50%). About half of the avoided losses were in primary forests, and reductions were larger when participation density was higher. The economic value of the avoided carbon emissions alone compares favorably to program implementation costs. The program’s environmental impact appears to be mediated through channels widely available in developing nations: consumption smoothing, whereby cash substitutes for deforestation as a form of insurance, and consumption substitution, whereby market-purchased goods substitute for deforestation-sourced goods. The results imply that anti-poverty programs targeted at the very poor can help achieve global environmental goals under certain conditions.

This paper aims to fill the gaps in the analysis of risk‐sharing channels at the microlevel, both within and across households. Using data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth covering the financial crisis, we are able to quantify in a unified and consistent framework several risk‐sharing mechanisms that so far have been documented separately. We find that Italian households were able to smooth on average about 85% of shocks to household head's earnings in both 2008–2010 and 2010–2012 spells. The most important smoothing mechanisms turn out to be self‐insurance through savings/dissavings (40% and 47% in 2008–2010 and 2010–2012, respectively), and within‐household risk‐sharing (16% and 14%). Interestingly, risk‐sharing through portfolio diversification and private transfers is rather limited, but the overall percentage of shock absorption occurring through private risk‐sharing channels hovers around four‐fifths, as opposed to around one‐fifth of a shock cushioned by taxes and public transfers, excluding pensions. In addition, by exploiting subjective expectations on the following year's household income, we find significant evidence of a lower degree of smoothing of persistent shocks. Household risk‐sharing precautionary savings consumption smoothing income smoothing C31 D12 E21

Labor market frictions are crucial for the equity premium in production economies. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with recursive utility, search frictions, and capital accumulation yields a high equity premium of 4.26% per annum, a stock market volatility of 11.8%, and a low average interest rate of 1.59%, while simultaneously retaining plausible business cycle dynamics. The equity premium and stock market volatility are strongly countercyclical, while the interest rate and consumption growth are largely unpredictable. Because of wage inertia, dividends are procyclical despite consumption smoothing via capital investment. The welfare cost of business cycles is huge, 29%. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

The goal of this paper is to address the role of the real effective exchange rate (fundamentals, misalignment and volatility) for the current account using a panel data analysis for a set of 58 countries, over the period of 1994–2014. The results suggest that exchange rate misalignment is relevant for current account adjustment where countries with a more appreciated (depreciated) exchange rate face a worse (better) current account performance. Regarding the role of other control variables, current account adjustment is affected by the savings rate where higher (lower) values are associated with better (worse) current account performance, corroborating the lessons from the consumption smoothing approach. There is also evidence of a positive effect for the lagged current account (persistence effect). For emerging and less developed countries, there is evidence of a significant role played by monetary independence where more (less) monetary independence is associated with better (worse) current account performance.

We study repayment and delinquency in an innovative loan contract that offers borrowers a wide range of flexibility. Using a large administrative dataset, we perform unsupervised pattern analysis to study how borrowers repay within the framework of this loan. We identify eight clusters that can be grouped into three distinct repayment types. We show that borrowers with fluctuating incomes and limited consumption smoothing resources use the loan’s flexibility more and that farmers in particular adjust their repayment to cash flow. Finally, we show that high use of the loan’s flexibility is associated with repayment difficulties, yet typically does not result in eventual default; whereas borrowers who face repayment difficulties that are likely driven by economic shocks face a high probability of default.

This paper investigates the contribution of private and public channels for consumption risk sharing in the euro area. In particular, it explores the role of financial integration versus official financial assistance for consumption smoothing. In addition, it presents a time-varying test which allows estimating how risk sharing has evolved since the start of the euro, including the recent great recession and European sovereign debt crisis. Our results suggest that, whereas in the early years of the euro only about a third of country-specific output shocks were smoothed, in the aftermath of the crisis almost 60% of these shocks were absorbed, therefore reducing consumption growth differentials across countries. This improvement was mostly due to a higher degree of financial integration, as reflected in particular in cross-border portfolio holdings of corporate and government bonds. Importantly, the provision of official loans to distressed governments in the wake of the crisis considerably improved risk sharing since 2010.

Monthly welfare programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) produce consistent cycles of expenditure and consumption among recipients. Food insecurity, health status, crime, poor behavior and test scores track these cycles. This paper leverages new data from the USDA—the FoodAPS survey—to better understand these cycles in three ways. First, I find that expenditure and consumption cycles are correlated within households–a fact not previously established. Second, I study diet quality over the benefit month, and find that it worsens, potentially compounding the harmful consequences of cyclical food insecurity. Third, I find that kids bear less of the burden of the consumption cycle than adults, and that much of this difference may be driven by school-meal programs. This finding suggests large potential gains in child welfare from expanding summer meal programs.

We study the dynamics of consumption, the real interest rate and measures of labour input in Japan over the period from 1985 to 2014. We identify structural breaks in macroeconomic aggregates during the 1990s and associate them with the zero interest‐rate policy pursued by the Bank of Japan and the surprise increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997. Formal estimation using the generalized methods of moments shows that the mid‐1990s are characterized by breaks in the structural parameters governing household consumption and labour supply decisions. Specifically, following the tax hike and during the low nominal rate period, Japanese households became less risk averse and exhibited a higher degree of habit formation.

I generalize the following rule of Ramsey (1928) on the discount rate with regime switching: the discount rate is the sum of the rate of pure time preference and the product of the consumption elasticity of marginal utility and the consumption growth rate. The Ramsey rule can be extended to regime-dependent interest-rate formulas for discounting future regime changes. Notwithstanding debate about empirically plausible values of the rate of pure time preference, I theoretically show that the effect of pure time preference is overwhelmingly dominated by the effect of the regime switching parameter. This is closely associated with consumption smoothing consequences across regimes.

To cope with shocks, poor households with inadequate access to financial markets can sell assets to smooth consumption and, or reduce consumption to protect assets. Both coping strategies can be economically costly and contribute to the transmission of poverty, yet limited evidence exists regarding the effectiveness of insurance to mitigate these costs in risk-prone developing economies. Utilizing data from an RCT in rural Kenya, this paper estimates that on average an innovative microinsurance scheme reduces both forms of costly coping. Threshold econometrics grounded in theory reveal a more complex pattern: (i) wealthier households primarily cope by selling assets, and insurance makes them 96 percentage points less likely to sell assets following a shock; (ii) poorer households cope primarily by cutting food consumption, and insurance reduces by 49 percentage points their reliance on this strategy.

We implement a dynamic asset pricing experiment in the spirit of Lucas (1978) with storable assets and non-storable cash. In the first treatment, we impose diminishing marginal returns to cash to incentivize consumption smoothing across periods. We find that subjects use the asset to smooth consumption, although the asset trades at a discount relative to the risk-neutral fundamental price. This under-pricing is a departure from the asset price “bubbles” observed in the large experimental asset pricing literature originating with Smith et al. (1988) and can be rationalized by considering subjects’ risk aversion with respect to uncertain money earnings. In a second treatment, with no induced motivation for trade à la the Smith et al. design, we find that the asset trades at a premium relative to its expected value and that shareholdings are highly concentrated. Elimination of asset price uncertainty in additional experimental treatments serves to reinforce the same observations, and suggests that speculative behaviour explains the departure of prices from fundamental value in the absence of a consumption-smoothing motive for asset trades.

By recovering measures of income dispersion from the European Commission Consumer Survey, this analysis addresses whether conventional and unconventional monetary policies affect income inequalities in the Euro Area and the impact thereof on monetary transmission. First, in a VAR framework, the effects of both types of monetary policy on income distribution are evaluated. Second, the marginal effect of income dispersion on the consumption elasticity to monetary shocks is investigated using the same framework. The results suggest high cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy and non-linearities associated with the redistributive strength of fiscal policy and the maturity of the household portfolio. Standard expansionary monetary measures typically have a small contractionary effect on income distribution. Mildly high-income dispersion is beneficial for the transmission of the monetary shocks to consumption because it overcomes the negative effect of consumption smoothing. However, for what concerns Q.E. measures, poorly redistributive fiscal policy and highly sensitive households’ portfolio might trigger these results.

Using new transaction data, I find considerable deviations from consumption smoothing in response to large, regular, predetermined, and salient payments from the Alaska Permanent Fund. On average, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 25% for nondurables and services within one quarter of the payments. The MPC is heterogeneous, monotonically increasing with income, and the average is largely driven by high-income households with substantial amounts of liquid assets, who have MPCs above 50%. The account-level data and the properties of the payments rule out most previous explanations of excess sensitivity, including buffer stock models and rational inattention. How big are these “mistakes?” Using a sufficient statistics approach, I show that the welfare loss from excess sensitivity depends on the MPC and the relative payment size as a fraction of income. Since the lump-sum payments do not depend on income, the two statistics are negatively correlated such that the welfare losses are similar across households and small (less than 0.1% of wealth), despite the large MPCs.

After the onset of the financial crisis, consumption fell in many economies. This paper presents a small-scale DSGE model with occasionally binding credit constraints. Indebted households start facing credit constraints when the value of their main asset, housing, declines. As a response, they stop smoothing consumption and start deleveraging. Even households that only expect to face a credit constraint in the future deleverage. Using the Irish Household Budget Survey, we show that most Irish households continued to smooth consumption during the crisis. However, for highly indebted consumption smoothing is disrupted during the crisis. Households with leverage close to but below the standard loan-to-value ratio of 85% also seem to smooth consumption less than normal households. This is rational if they expect a further house price decline and therefore anticipate the need to deleverage in the near future. We interpret these results as evidence of credit constraints that arise from falling property prices.

On the basis of the Russian Survey of Household Finance , we investigate the consumption behavior of Russian households, who faced a negative income shock at the end of 2014. We also analyze the role of crisis-adjusting consumption strategies based on the instruments of financial market, namely an increase in the stock of debt or decrease in liquid and non-liquid assets. Results based on two identification procedures of income shocks show that Russian households were able to smooth around 50% of their income shock. The ability to smooth consumption is lower for those living in rural areas, households with higher levels of debt accumulated before 2014 and those with lower income. Overall, Russian households are not used to spend savings or increase their debt in response to the income changes with the exception of those who already had a higher level of debt by 2014. The results may have important implications for the Bank of Russia policy.

We examine the solvency of India’s current account (CA) in the post-liberalization period using intertemporal optimization approach to the CA. Using quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2014Q2, we...

The intergenerational persistence of consumption describes the extent to which children inherit the living standards of their parents. Evidence on this parameter is scarce due to limited data on the joint consumption of parents and children. This paper identifies parents who participated in the Danish Expenditure Survey, links them to their children through population‐wide Danish registries, and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of consumption in Denmark. The results suggest that, consistent with intergenerational consumption smoothing, the persistence of consumption across generations is higher than the persistence of earnings and income.