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The objective of this study fills a gap in the Hungarian academic literature: its goal, on the one hand, is to systematise the research trends of decision-making and risk preferences at older ages according to the various methodological approaches, including researches based on experiment, questionnaire or wealth portfolio holding, and, on the other hand, to identify the impacts between age and financial literacy. The international academic literature shows that the researches on attitude to risk at older ages reached different conclusions depending on the research method used. In an experimental environment embedded in a play situation older people are rather risk-seeking, whereas in case of learning leading to a risky choice they are risk-averse. Based on the conclusion drawn from questionnaire surveys and portfolio selection methods, willingness to take risks decreases in older cohorts. The risk preferences dynamically changing with age highlight a new dimension of investment decisions. The research of the relationships between the investment experience accumulated with increasing age – which raises risk tolerance – and the cognitive abilities deteriorating as the end of the life-cycle approaches highlights several contradictions in the international literature.

Tanulmanyunkban egy előretekintő, időben valtozo parameterű Taylor-szabaly becsleset vegezzuk el magyar adatok felhasznalasaval. Celunk a hazai monetaris politika jellemzese az inflacios celkovetes rendszerenek bevezetese ota eltelt időszakban. Kutatasi kerdeseink a kovetkezők. Melyek voltak a monetaris politikai donteshozatal szempontjabol meghatarozo fundamentalis tenyezők, illetve hogyan valtozott e tenyezők szerepe az elmult tizenot ev soran? Az időben valtozo Taylor-egyutthatok becslesehez egy linearis allapottermodellt irunk fel, amelyet Kalman-filterrel becsulunk. Az alkalmazott becslesi modszer ertekes hozadeka – szemben a kulonboző reszmintas es rezsimvalto regressziokkal –, hogy maguk a becslesi eredmenyek jelolik ki az esetleges strukturalis toresek helyet, illetve idejet. Ezaltal tovabbi kulső informaciok nelkul, előfelteves-mentesen azonosithatjuk a hazai monetaris politika preferenciainak időbeli valtozasat. Eredmenyeink a hazai monetaris politika celjainak atrendeződeset mutatjak a valsagot kovető időszakban, emellett kiemelik a kulső mozgaster valtozasainak meghatarozo szerepet. A becsles relevanciajat noveli, hogy a felhasznalt adatok szinte teljes egeszeben a Magyar Nemzeti Bank altal publikalt, valos idejű kiadvanyokbol szarmaznak.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kod: E43, E52, E58.

Over the last decade, foreign currency indebtedness in Hungary has become a systemic financial problem, and its crippling impact on the real economy has been aggravated by its significant constraints on economic policy. In international comparative terms, however, there are certain specific features relating to Hungary which make this issue particularly problematic, and during the financial crisis both exchange rates and interest rates were important factors in increasing the burden on individual households. We present here a case study whereby our research focuses on the causes and determining factors of the pricing of Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans. Our empirical exercise examines four potential price shocks which might have affected the pricing decisions of credit institutions: foreign currency interest rates, the country risk premiums (measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread), the deteriorating quality of the loan portfolio and the taxes levied on banks. The questions which arise concern the relationship of these costs to the changes in interest rates and the extent to which these cost shocks were passed on by banks to their clients. Empirical evidence based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) shows a significant long-run relationship between cost factors and CHF denominated mortgage loans interest rates — with a reasonable sign and magnitude of parameters, but also with moderate forecasting power. Finding a tractable solution to the foreign currency debt trap is only possible if a fair distribution of burdens is achieved, and this should be supported by empirical facts. At the end of the day, all three affected parties (debtors, banks, and the Hungarian State) had made their contribution, but how fair and reasonable the distribution was remains an open issue for further research.