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The concept of a so-called urban advantage in health ignores the possibility of heterogeneity in health outcomes across cities. Using a harmonized dataset from the SALURBAL project, we describe variability and predictors of life expectancy and proportionate mortality in 363 cities across nine Latin American countries. Life expectancy differed substantially across cities within the same country. Cause-specific mortality also varied across cities, with some causes of death (unintentional and violent injuries and deaths) showing large variation within countries, whereas other causes of death (communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional, cancer, cardiovascular disease and other noncommunicable diseases) varied substantially between countries. In multivariable mixed models, higher levels of education, water access and sanitation and less overcrowding were associated with longer life expectancy, a relatively lower proportion of communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional deaths and a higher proportion of deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease and other noncommunicable diseases. These results highlight considerable heterogeneity in life expectancy and causes of death across cities of Latin America, revealing modifiable factors that could be amenable to urban policies aimed toward improving urban health in Latin America and more generally in other urban environments.

Background: Many of the known solutions to the physical inactivity pandemic operate across sectors relevant to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Methods: The authors examined the contribution of physical activity promotion strategies toward achieving the SDGs through a conceptual linkage exercise, a scoping review, and an agent-based model. Results: Possible benefits of physical activity promotion were identified for 15 of the 17 SDGs, with more robust evidence supporting benefits for SDGs 3 (good health and well-being), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), 11 (sustainable cities and communities), 13 (climate action), and 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions). Current evidence supports prioritizing at-scale physical activity-promoting transport and urban design strategies and community-based programs. Expected physical activity gains are greater for low-and middle-income countries. In high-income countries with high car dependency, physical activity promotion strategies may help reduce air pollution and traffic-related deaths, but shifts toward more active forms of travel and recreation, and climate change mitigation, may require complementary policies that disincentivize driving. Conclusions: The authors call for a synergistic approach to physical activity promotion and SDG achievement, involving multiple sectors beyond health around their goals and values, using physical activity promotion as a lever for a healthier planet.

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants’ perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, ‘healthy’ scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of ‘healthy’ scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action., Highlights • We used the CIB method to augment findings from group model building workshops. • The CIB method highlights possible future scenarios to guide health policy planning. • We identified 21 plausible future scenarios for cities in Latin America. • Healthy scenarios featured low car use, high public transport subsidies and safety. • Political will appears critically important in promoting healthy urban scenarios.

Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required., Graphical abstract This figure represents a word network created by extracting keywords from the paper abstracts included in our systematic review. Each keyword represents a node in the network; its size is proportional to the number of abstracts in which it appears. Keywords are connected if they are found in the same abstract. The colours represent different communities of words as identified using the Louvain method.Image 1, Highlights • Bike lanes and bus rapid transit systems promote physical activity and active travel. • Multi-component interventions can act synergistically to increase active travel. • Few longitudinal health evaluations of aerial trams and open streets programs exist. • Low-and-middle income countries are understudied in the literature.

Refereed/Peer-reviewed Studies examining urban health and the environment must ensure comparability of measures across cities and countries. We describe a data platform and process that integrates health outcomes together with physical and social environment data to examine multilevel aspects of health across cities in 11 Latin American countries. We used two complementary sources to identify cities with ≥ 100,000 inhabitants as of 2010 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Peru. We defined cities in three ways: administratively, quantitatively from satellite imagery, and based on country-defined metropolitan areas. In addition to “cities,” we identified sub-city units and smaller neighborhoods within them using census hierarchies. Selected physical environment (e.g., urban form, air pollution and transport) and social environment (e.g., income, education, safety) data were compiled for cities, sub-city units, and neighborhoods whenever possible using a range of sources. Harmonized mortality and health survey data were linked to city and sub-city units. Finer georeferencing is underway. We identified 371 cities and 1436 sub-city units in the 11 countries. The median city population was 234,553 inhabitants (IQR 141,942; 500,398). The systematic organization of cities, the initial task of this platform, was accomplished and further ongoing developments include the harmonization of mortality and survey measures using available sources for between country comparisons. A range of physical and social environment indicators can be created using available data. The flexible multilevel data structure accommodates heterogeneity in the data available and allows for varied multilevel research questions related to the associations of physical and social environment variables with variability in health outcomes within and across cities. The creation of such data platforms holds great promise to support researching with greater granularity the field of urban health in Latin America as well as serving as a resource for the evaluation of policies oriented to improve the health and environmental sustainability of cities.

A systematic review was conducted, following PRISMA guidelines, to examine the application of finite mixture models (FMMs) in the study of neighbourhoods and health. Two reviewers screened 814-studies identified through database searches and citation tracking. Data were extracted from 19-studies that met the inclusion criteria, and a risk of bias analysis undertaken. Data were synthesised narratively, with a focus on methodological issues idiosyncratic to FMMs. Motivated by a desire to account for neighbourhood heterogeneity, studies sought to identify meaningful neighbourhood-level typologies that explained the distributional nature of health outcomes. Neighbourhood-centred applications of FMMs were promising but there remains scope for advancement. Research-based recommendations are outlined to strengthen prospective neighbourhood-centred studies applying FMMs Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Refereed/Peer-reviewed We conducted a systematic review of studies employing complex systems approaches (i.e., agent based and system dynamics models) to understand drivers of mental health and inform mental health policy. We extracted key data (e.g., purpose, design, data) for each study and provide a narrative synthesis of insights generated across studies. The studies investigated drivers and policy intervention strategies across a diversity of mental health outcomes. Based on these studies and the extant literature, we propose a typology of mental health research and policy areas that may benefit from complex systems approaches.

We discuss the design, implementation, and results of a collaborative process designed to elucidate the complex systems that drive food behaviors, transport, and health in Latin American cities and to build capacity for systems thinking and community-based system dynamics (CBSD) methods among diverse research team members and stakeholders. During three CBSD workshops, 62 stakeholders from 10 Latin American countries identified 98 variables and a series of feedback loops that shape food behaviors, transportation and health, along with 52 policy levers. Our findings suggest that CBSD can engage local stakeholders, help them view problems through the lens of complex systems and use their insights to prioritize research efforts and identify novel solutions that consider mechanisms of complexity., Highlights • CBSD methods can promote systems thinking and help identify policy approaches. • Stakeholders identified 98 variables driving food behaviors and transport in cities. • Balancing and reinforcing feedbacks drive change in food behavior and transport. • Feedback loops can also explain policy responses and lack of policy responses. • Stakeholders identified 52 policies that leverage variables and feedbacks.

Refereed/Peer-reviewed Purpose: To: (1) explore how multi-level factors impact the longitudinal prevalence of depression and alcohol misuse among urban older adults (≥ 65 years), and (2) simulate the impact of alcohol taxation policies and targeted interventions that increase social connectedness among excessive drinkers, socially isolated and depressed older adults; both alone and in combination. Methods: An agent-based model was developed to explore the temporal co-evolution of depression and alcohol misuse prevalence among older adults nested in a spatial network. The model was based on Los Angeles and calibrated longitudinally using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Results: Interventions with a social component targeting depressed and socially isolated older adults appeared more effective in curbing depression prevalence than those focused on excessive drinkers. Targeting had similar impacts on alcohol misuse, though the effects were marginal compared to those on depression. Alcohol taxation alone had little impact on either depression or alcohol misuse trajectories. Conclusions: Interventions that improve social connectedness may reduce the prevalence of depression among older adults. Targeting considerations could play an important role in determining the success of such efforts.

An underrepresentation of stakeholder perspectives within urban health research arguably limits our understanding of what is a multi-dimensional and complex relationship between the built environment and health. By engaging a wide range of stakeholders using a participatory concept mapping approach, this study aimed to achieve a more holistic and nuanced understanding of the built environments shaping disease risk, specifically cardiometabolic risk (CMR). Moreover, this study aimed to ascertain the importance and changeability of identified environments through government action. Through the concept mapping process, community members, researchers, government and non-government stakeholders collectively identified eleven clusters encompassing 102 built environmental domains related to CMR, a number of which are underrepresented within the literature. Among the identified built environments, open space, public transportation and pedestrian environments were highlighted as key targets for policy intervention. Whilst there was substantive convergence in stakeholder groups’ perspectives concerning the built environment and CMR, there were disparities in the level of importance government stakeholders and community members respectively assigned to pedestrian environments and street connectivity. These findings support the role of participatory methods in strengthening how urban health issues are understood and in affording novel insights into points of action for public health and policy intervention. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Refereed/Peer-reviewed Context: Depression among older adults (aged 60 years or older) is a problem that could be exacerbated by global trends in urbanization and population aging. The study purpose was to assess whether urban, relative to rural, residence is associated with depression among older adults and whether associations differ in countries with developed versus developing economies. Evidence acquisition: In 2017, the authors identified and extracted information from comparative studies of urban–rural depression prevalence among older adults. Studies were identified in PubMed, PsychINFO, and Web of Science and limited to English language articles published after 1985. Eighteen studies met inclusion criteria. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted to produce weighted pooled ORs estimating the association between urban–rural residence and depression for all study participants (N=31,598) and sub-analyses were conducted for developed (n=12,728) and developing (n=18,870) countries. Evidence synthesis: Depression prevalence was significantly higher among urban residents in ten studies and significantly higher among rural residents in three studies (all three conducted in China). Associations between urban–rural residence and depression generally remained significant after adjusting for covariates. In developed countries, the odds of depression were significantly higher among urban than rural residents (pooled OR=1.44, 95% CI=1.10, 1.88). However, in developing countries, this association was not observed (pooled OR=0.91, 95% CI=0.46, 1.77). Conclusions: Converging trends of urbanization and population aging could increase the global burden of depression among older adults. The pathways through which urban–rural residence influences depression risk among older adults might differ by country context. Future research should focus on measuring variation in these contexts.

BackgroundDaily transport is associated with mental health. A free bus policy (FBP) may be effective in promoting the use of public transit in older adults and be associated with reductions in depressive symptoms.MethodsWe developed an agent-based model and grounded it using empirical data from England to examine the impact of an FBP on public transit use and depression among older adults. We also used the model to explore whether the impact of the FBP bus use and depression is modified by the type of income segregation or by simultaneous efforts to improve attitudes towards the bus, to reduce waiting times or to increase the cost of driving via parking fees or fuel price.ResultsOur model suggests that improving attitudes towards the bus (eg, campaigns that promote bus use) could enhance the effect of the FBP, especially for those in proximity to public transit. Reducing wait times could also significantly magnify FPB impacts, especially in those who live in proximity to public transit. Contrary to expectation, neither fuel costs nor parking fees significantly enhanced the impact of the FBP. The impact of improving attitudes towards the bus and increasing bus frequency was more pronounced in the lower-income groups in an income segregation scenario in which destination and public transit are denser in the city centre.ConclusionOur results suggest that the beneficial mental health effects of an FBP for older adults can be magnified when combined with initiatives that reduce bus waiting times and increased spatial access to transit.