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Background The universal Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) prediction models for postoperative adverse outcomes have good accuracy for estimating risk in broad surgical populations and for surgical specialties. The accuracy in individual operations has not yet been assessed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System in predicting adverse outcomes for selected individual operations. Methods The SURPAS models were applied to the top 2 most frequent common procedural terminology codes in 9 surgical specialties and 5 additional common general surgical operations in the 2009 to 2018 database of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP). Goodness of fit statistics were estimated, including c-indices for discrimination, Hosmer-Lemeshow graphs and P values for calibration, overall observed versus expected event rates, and Brier scores. Results The total sample size was 2,020,172, which represented 29% of the 6.9 million operations in the ACS NSQIP database. Average c-indices across 12 outcomes were acceptable (≥0.70) for 13 (56.5%) of the 23 operations. Overall observed-to-expected rates were similar for mortality and overall morbidity across the 23 operations. Hosmer-Lemeshow graphs over quintiles of risk comparing observed-to-expected rates of mortality and overall morbidity were similar for 52% and 70% of operations, respectively. Model performance was better in less complex operations and those done in patients with lower preoperative risk. Conclusion SURPAS displayed accuracy in estimating postoperative adverse events for some of the 23 operations studied, but not all. In the procedures where SURPAS was not accurate, developing disease or operation-specific risk models might be appropriate.

Background The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) uses eight variables to accurately predict postoperative complications but has not been sufficiently studied in emergency surgery. We evaluated SURPAS in emergency surgery, comparing it to the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS). Methods SURPAS and ESS estimates of 30-day mortality and overall morbidity were calculated for emergency operations in the 2009–2018 ACS-NSQIP database and compared using observed-to-expected plots and rates, c-indices, and Brier scores. Cases with incomplete data were excluded. Results In 205,318 emergency patients, SURPAS underestimated (8.1%; 35.9%) while ESS overestimated (10.1%; 43.8%) observed mortality and morbidity (8.9%; 38.8%). Each showed good calibration on observed-to-expected plots. SURPAS had better c-indices (0.855 vs 0.848 mortality; 0.802 vs 0.755 morbidity), while the Brier score was better for ESS for mortality (0.0666 vs. 0.0684) and for SURPAS for morbidity (0.1772 vs. 0.1950). Conclusions SURPAS accurately predicted mortality and morbidity in emergency surgery using eight predictor variables.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the educational impact following the implementation of a robotic thoracic surgery program on cardiothoracic (CT) surgery trainees. We hypothesized that the introduction of a robotic thoracic surgery program would adversely affect the CT surgery resident experience, decreasing operative involvement and subsequent competency of surgical procedures. CT surgery residents and thoracic surgery attendings from a single academic institution were administered a recurring, electronic survey from September 2019 to September 2020 following each robotic thoracic surgery case. Surveys evaluated resident involvement and operative performance. This study was exempt from review by our Institutional Review Board. Attendings and residents completed surveys for 86 and 75 cases, respectively. Residents performed > 50% of the operation independently at the surgeon console in 66.2 and 73.3% of cases according to attending and resident responses, respectively. The proportion of trainees able to perform > 75% of the operation increased with each increasing year in training (p = 0.002). Based on the Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Skills grading tool, third-year residents averaged higher scores compared to first-year residents (22.9 versus 17.4 out of 30 possible points, p

Rectal prolapse is relatively uncommon in male patients. The aim of this study was to compare males and females who underwent rectal prolapse surgery.Retrospective analysis of the ACS NSQIP public use file.Among 12,220 patients, 978 (8%) were male and 11,242 (92%) were female. Males were younger, 56 (38-73) vs. 71 (58-83) years, less often white (83% vs. 71%), had lower ASA scores, and underwent more laparoscopic (33% vs. 27%), more open (33% vs. 29%), and less perineal (33% vs 44%) procedures (all p 0.05). Morbidity (9.9% vs. 10.0%), reoperation (3.4% vs. 3.1%), and readmission (5.7% vs. 6.0%) were not different for males and females. In subgroup analysis by surgical procedure type, there remained no outcome differences. Propensity matched analysis revealed no difference in the use of laparoscopic, open, or perineal procedures.Males with rectal prolapse are younger, have a different racial distribution, a lower surgical risk profile, and undergo different surgical procedures than females, which appears to be driven by patient age and surgical risk assessment.

The extraordinary demands of managing the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world's ability to care for patients with thoracic malignancies. As a hospital's COVID-19 population increases and hospital resources are depleted, the ability to provide surgical care is progressively restricted, forcing surgeons to prioritize among their cancer populations. Representatives from multiple cancer, surgical, and research organizations have come together to provide a guide for triaging patients with thoracic malignancies as the impact of COVID-19 evolves as each hospital.

Background Informed consent is an ethical imperative of surgical practice. This requires effective communication of procedural risks to patients and is learned during residency. No systematic review has yet examined current risk disclosure. This systematic review aims to use existing published information to assess preoperative provision of risk information by surgeons. Methods Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses as a guide, a standardized search in Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINHAL, and PubMed was performed. Three reviewers performed the study screening, with 2-reviewer consensus required at each stage. Studies containing objective information concerning preoperative risk provision in adult surgical patients were selected for inclusion. Studies exclusively addressing interventions for pediatric patients or trauma were excluded, as were studies addressing risks of anesthesia. Results The initial search returned 12,988 papers after deduplication, 33 of which met inclusion criteria. These studies primarily evaluated consent through surveys of providers, record reviews and consent recordings. The most ubiquitous finding of all study types was high levels of intra-surgeon variation in what risk information is provided to patients preoperatively. Studies recording consents found the lowest rates of risk disclosure. Studies using multiple forms of investigation corroborated this, finding disparity between verbally provided information vs chart documentation. Conclusions The wide variance in what information is provided to patients preoperatively inhibits the realization of the ethical and practical components of informed consent. The findings of this review indicate that significant opportunities exist for practice improvement. Future development of surgical communication tools and techniques should emphasize standardizing what risks are shared with patients.

Background The novel Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) requires entry of five predictor variables (the other three variables of the eight-variable model are automatically obtained from the electronic health record or a table look-up), provides patient risk estimates compared to national averages, is integrated into the electronic health record, and provides a graphical handout of risks for patients. The accuracy of the SURPAS tool was compared to that of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC). Methods Predicted risk of postoperative mortality and morbidity was calculated using both SURPAS and ACS-SRC for 1,006 randomly selected 2007–2016 ACS National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) patients with known outcomes. C-indexes, Hosmer-Lemeshow graphs, and Brier scores were compared between SURPAS and ACS-SRC. Results ACS-SRC risk estimates for overall morbidity underestimated risk compared to observed postoperative overall morbidity, particularly for the highest risk patients. SURPAS accurately estimates morbidity risk compared to observed morbidity. Conclusions SURPAS risk predictions were more accurate than ACS-SRC's for overall morbidity, particularly for high risk patients. Summary The accuracy of the SURPAS tool was compared to that of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC). SURPAS risk predictions were more accurate than those of the ACS-SRC for overall morbidity, particularly for high risk patients.

The objectives were to determine factors associated with conversion to open surgery in patients with esophageal cancer who underwent minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE, including laparo-thoracoscopic and robotic) and the impact of conversion to open surgery on patient outcomes. We included patients from the National Cancer Database with esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancer who underwent MIE from 2010 to 2015. Patient-, tumor-, and facility-related characteristics as well as short-term and oncologic outcomes were compared between patients who were converted to open surgery and those who underwent successful MIE without conversion to open surgery. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyze risk factors for conversion to open surgery from attempted MIE. 7306 patients underwent attempted MIE. Of these patients, 82 of 1487 (5.2%) robotic-assisted esophagectomies were converted to open, compared to 691 of 5737 (12.0%) laparo-thoracoscopic esophagectomies (p

Introduction The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System is a parsimonious, universal surgical risk calculator integrated into our local electronic health record. We determined how many of its eight preoperative risk predictor variables could be automatically obtained from the electronic health record. This has implications for the usability and adoption of Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System, serving as an example of use of electronic health record data for populating clinical decision support tools. Methods We quantified the availability and accuracy in the electronic health record of the eight Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System predictor variables (patient age, American Society of Anesthesiology physical status classification, functional health status, sepsis, work Relative Value Unit, in-/outpatient operation, surgeon specialty, emergency status) at the patient’s preoperative encounter of 5205 patients entered into the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. Accuracy was determined by comparing the electronic health record data to the same patient’s National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data, used as the “gold standard.” Acceptable accuracy was defined as a Kappa statistic or Pearson correlation coefficient ≥0.8 when comparing electronic health record and National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. Acceptable availability was defined as presence of the variable in the electronic health record at the preoperative encounter ≥95% of the time. Results Of the eight predictor variables, six had acceptable accuracy. Only preoperative sepsis and functional health status had Kappa statistics Conclusions Processes need to be developed to populate more of the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System preoperative predictor variables in the patient’s electronic health record prior to the preoperative visit to lessen the burden on the busy surgeon and encourage more widespread use of Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System.

The morbidity and mortality benefits of performing high-risk operations in high-volume centers by high-volume surgeons are evident. Regionalization is a proposed strategy to leverage high-volume centers for esophagectomy to improve quality outcomes. Internationally, regionalization occurs under national mandates. Those mandates do not exist in the United States and spontaneous regionalization of esophagectomy has only modestly occurred in the U.S. Regionalization must strike a careful balance and not limit access to optimal oncologic care to our most vulnerable cancer patient populations in rural and disadvantaged socioeconomic areas. We reviewed the recent literature highlighting: the justification of hospital and surgeon annual esophagectomy volumes for regionalization; how safety performance metrics could influence regionalization; whether regionalization is occurring in the US; what impact regionalization may have on esophagectomy costs; and barriers to patients traveling to receive oncologic treatment at regionalized centers of excellence.

Introduction: The impact of radiation prescription dose on postoperative complications during standard of care trimodality therapy for operable stage II-III esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancers has not been established.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 82 patients with esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancers treated between 2004 and 2016 with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by resection at a single institution. Post-operative complications within 30 days were reviewed and scored using the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI). Results were compared between patients treated with Results: Twenty-nine patients were treated with Conclusions: In selected esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancer patients, radiation doses ≥ 50 Gy do not appear to increase 30 day post-operative complication rates. These findings suggest that the use of definitive doses of radiotherapy (50–50.4 Gy) in the neoadjuvant setting may not increase post-operative complications.

Background Pulmonary segmentectomy provides an anatomic lung resection while avoiding removal of excess normal lung tissue. This may be beneficial in patients with minimal pulmonary reserve who present with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, the operative performance of a segmentectomy using a video-assisted thoracoscopic approach can be technically challenging. We hypothesized that introduction of the robotic surgical system would facilitate the performance of a segmentectomy as measured by an increase in the proportion of segmentectomies being pursued. Methods We completed a retrospective analysis of thoracoscopic and robotic anatomic lung resections, including lobectomies and segmentectomies, performed in patients with primary lung cancer from the time of initiation of the robotic thoracic surgery program in November 2017 to November 2019. We compared the proportion of thoracoscopic and robotic segmentectomies performed during the first year compared to the second year of the data collection period. Results A total of 138 thoracoscopic and robotic anatomic lung resections were performed for primary lung cancer. Types of lung cancer resected (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, or other), tumor size based on clinical T staging (T1-T4), and tumor location were not significantly different between years (P=0.44, P=0.98, and P=0.26, respectively). The proportion of segmentectomies increased from 8.6% during the first year to 25.0% during the second year (P=0.01). One out of 6 (16.7%) segmentectomies were performed using the robot during the first year versus 15 out of 17 (88.2%) during the second year (P=0.003). Conclusions Use of the robot led to a significant increase in the number of segmentectomies performed in patients undergoing anatomic lung resection. With increasing lung cancer awareness and widely available screening, a greater number of small, early-stage tumors suitable for segmentectomy will likely be detected. We conclude that robotic-assisted surgery may facilitate the challenges of performing a minimally invasive segmentectomy.

Background Risk assessment is essential to informed decision making in surgery. Preoperative use of the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) providing individualized risk assessment, may enhance informed consent. We assessed patient and provider perceptions of SURPAS as a risk assessment tool. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study assessed SURPAS’s trial implementation, concurrently collecting quantitative and qualitative data, separately analyzing it, and integrating the results. Patients and providers were surveyed and interviewed on their opinion of how SURPAS impacted the preoperative encounter. Relationships between patient risk and patient and provider assessment of SURPAS were examined. Results A total of 197 patients were provided their SURPAS postoperative risk estimates in nine surgeon’s clinics. Of the total patients, 98.8% reported they understood their surgical risks very or quite well after exposure to SURPAS; 92.7% reported SURPAS was very helpful or helpful. Providers shared that 83.4% of the time they reported SURPAS was very or somewhat helpful; 44.7% of the time the providers reported it changed their interaction with the patient and this change was beneficial 94.3% of the time. As patient risk increased, providers reported that SURPAS was increasingly helpful (p Conclusions Patients and providers reported the use of SURPAS helpful and informative during the preoperative risk assessment of patients, thus improving the surgical decision making process. Patients thought that SURPAS was helpful regardless of their risk level, whereas providers thought that SURPAS was more helpful in higher risk patients.

Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of unplanned conversion to open esophagectomy during minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE) on postoperative morbidity and mortality for patients with esophageal cancer, as well as to evaluate the variables that influence the need for conversion. Methods This study was a retrospective analysis of patients with esophageal cancer who underwent open esophagectomy or MIE by either a laparothoracoscopic approach or a robotic approach from 2016 to 2018 by using the esophagectomy-specific American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database. Poisson regression models were used to analyze 30-day outcomes and risk factors for conversion to open esophagectomy during attempted MIE. Results A total of 2616 patients were identified. The overall conversion rate for MIE was 6.3%. Compared with completed MIE, patients requiring conversion to open esophagectomy had a significantly increased risk of 30-day mortality (risk ratio, 2.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 6.69) and experienced a variety of other postoperative complications. Patients requiring conversion to open esophagectomy during MIE also experienced worse perioperative outcomes when compared to patients who underwent planned open esophagectomy. Estimated surgical risk on the basis of the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator was the only variable found to be independently associated with conversion from minimally invasive to open esophagectomy (risk ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.04, for each 10% increase in risk score). Conclusions Unplanned conversion to open esophagectomy during MIE is associated with significantly greater morbidity and a 2.6-fold increased risk of death when compared with both completed MIE and planned open esophagectomy. The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator may help identify patients preoperatively who are at higher risk for conversion to open esophagectomy during MIE.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy with concurrent radiotherapy (nCRT) is an accepted treatment regimen for patients with potentially curable esophageal and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if induction chemotherapy (IC) before nCRT is associated with improved pathologic complete response (pCR) and overall survival (OS) when compared with patients who received nCRT alone for esophageal and GEJ adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Using the National Cancer Database (NCDB), patients who received nCRT and curative intent esophagectomy for esophageal or GEJ adenocarcinoma from 2006–2015 were included. Chemotherapy and radiation therapy start dates were used to define cohorts who received IC before nCRT (IC + nCRT) versus those who only received concurrent nCRT before surgery. Propensity weighting was conducted to balance patient, disease, and facility covariates between groups. RESULTS: 12,460 patients met inclusion criteria. 11,880 (95%) patients received nCRT and 580 (5%) patients received IC + nCRT. Following propensity weighting, OS was significantly improved among patients who received IC + nCRT versus nCRT (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.74–0.92; p

Background The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System accurately predicts postoperative complications in elective surgery using only 8 preoperative variables, but its performance in emergency surgery has not been evaluated. We hypothesized that the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System accurately predicts postoperative complications in emergency surgery and compared its performance to that of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator. Methods We calculated the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System and the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator risk estimates in a random sample of 1,010 emergency surgery cases from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2014 to 2017 database. Risk estimates were compared with known outcomes. Analyses included the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit graphs and P values, c-indexes, and Brier scores. Results Results were similar between the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System and the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator for mortality, urinary tract infection, cardiac, venous thromboembolism, and renal complications. The American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator underestimated morbidity compared with the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (16.04% American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator vs 24.88% Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System vs 24.3% observed). Both calculators overestimated readmission (7.67% American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator vs 5.18% Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System vs 4.1% observed). Conclusion Both calculators predicted mortality, urinary tract infection, cardiac, venous thromboembolism, and renal complications well, but readmissions relatively poorly. The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System estimated overall morbidity accurately, while the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator underestimated this risk.

Background The objective of this study was to develop an algorithm for identifying surgical site infections (SSIs) using independent variables from electronic health record data and outcomes from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to supplement manual chart review. Methods We fit 3 models to data from patients undergoing operations at the University of Colorado Hospital between 2013 and 2015: a similar model reported previously in the literature, a comprehensive model with 136 possible predictors, and a combination of those. All models used a generalized linear model with a lasso penalty. Several techniques for handling imbalance in the outcome were also used: Youden's J statistic to optimize the probability cutoff and sampling techniques combined with Youden's J. The models were then tested on data from patients undergoing operations during 2016. Results Two hundred thirty of 6,840 patients (3.4%) had an SSI. The comprehensive model fit to the full set of training data performed the best, achieving 90% specificity, 80% sensitivity, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. Conclusions We identified a model that accurately identified SSIs. The framework presented can be easily implemented by other American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-participating hospitals to develop models for enhancing surveillance of SSIs.

Background Risk assessment in surgery is essential to guide treatment decisions but is highly variable in practice. Providing formal preoperative risk assessment to surgical teams and patients may optimize understanding of risk. Implementation of the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS), an innovative real time, universal, preoperative tool providing individualized risk assessment, may enhance informed consent and reduce adverse outcomes. To ensure optimal development and implementation of SURPAS we performed an in-depth pre-implementation evaluation of SURPAS at an academic tertiary referral center in Colorado. Methods Four focus groups with 24 patients, three focus groups with 29 surgical providers and clinic administrators, and five individual interviews with administrative officials were conducted to elicit their perspectives about the development and implementation of SURPAS. Qualitative data collection and analyses, utilizing a Matrix Analysis approach were used to explore insights regarding SURPAS. Results Participants were positive about SURPAS and provided suggestions to improve and address concerns regarding it. For healthcare personnel three major themes emerged: 1) The SURPAS tool - Important work especially for high risk patients, yet not a substitute for clinical judgment; 2) Benefits of SURPAS to the risk assessment process - Improves the processes, enhances patients’ participation in shared decision-making process, and creates a permanent record; and 3) Facilitators and barriers of implementation of SURPAS - Easy to incorporate into clinical practice in spite of surgical providers’ resistance to adoption of new technology. For patients three major themes emerged: 1) Past experience of preoperative risk assessment discussions – Patients were not made aware of possible complications that occurred; 2) The SURPAS tool - All patients liked SURPAS and believed having printed material would be useful to guide discussions and facilitate remembering conversations with the providers; and 3) Potential concerns with having risk assessment information – Patients were mixed in deciding to have an operation with high risks. Conclusions Systematically capturing data from the beginning of the implementation process from key stakeholders (patients, surgical providers, clinical staff, and administrators) that includes adaptations to the tool and implementation process will help to inform pragmatic approaches for implementing the SURPAS tool in various settings, scaling-up, and sustaining it.

Objective Interest in humanitarian surgery is high among surgical and obstetric residents. The Colorado Humanitarian Surgical Skills Workshop is an annual 2-day course exposing senior residents to surgical techniques essential in low- and middle-income countries but not traditionally taught in US residencies. We evaluated the course’s ability to foster resident comfort, knowledge, and competence in these skills. Design The cohort of course participants was studied prospectively. Participants attended didactic sessions followed by skills sessions using cadavers. Sample areas of focus included general surgery (mesh-free hernia repair), orthopedics (powerless external fixation), and neurosurgery (powerless craniotomy). Before and after the course, participants answered a questionnaire assessing confidence with taught skills; took a knowledge-based test composed of multiple choice and open-ended questions; and participated in a manual skills test of tibial external fixation. Setting The Center for Surgical Innovation, University of Colorado School of Medicine. Participants A total of 12 residents (11 general surgical and 1 obstetric) from ten US institutions. Results After the course, participants perceived increased confidence in performing all 27 taught procedures and ability to practice in low- and middle-income countries. In knowledge-based testing, 10 of 12 residents demonstrated improvement on multiple choice questioning and 9 of 12 residents demonstrated improvement on open-ended questioning with structured scoring. In manual skills testing, all external fixator constructs demonstrated objective improvement on structured scoring and subjective improvement on stability assessment. Conclusions For senior residents interested in humanitarian surgery, a combination of skills-focused teaching and manual practice led to self-perceived and objective improvement in relevant surgical knowledge and skills. The Colorado Humanitarian Surgical Skills Workshop represents an effective model for transmitting essential surgical principles and techniques of value in low-resource settings.

Hospital readmissions are viewed as a mark of inferior health care quality and are penalized. Unplanned postoperative readmission reason and timing after lung resection are not well understood. We examine related, unplanned readmissions after thoracoscopic versus open anatomic lung resections to identify opportunities to improve patient care.We analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) data set, 2012 to 2015, characterizing 30-day related, unplanned postoperative readmissions after anatomic lung resections for primary lung cancer. Risk-adjusted comparison of readmission after thoracoscopic and open resection was performed using propensity matching.Patients (n = 9,510) underwent anatomic lung resections; 4,935 (51.9%) were thoracoscopic resections and 4,575 (48.1%) were open resections. Of the thoracoscopic patients, 10.9% experienced one or more complications, versus 19.4% of patients with open resection (p0.0001). Of the thoracoscopic patients 5.5% experienced related, unplanned readmissions versus 7.2% of the patients with open resection (p0.001). 24.8% of complications after thoracoscopic approach occurred after discharge, versus 15.5% after open approach (p0.0001). Timing of unplanned readmission was similar for both groups. The propensity-matched odds ratio of risk of readmission after thoracoscopic versus open resection was 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 0.949 to 1.411, p = 0.15).Open anatomic lung resections for primary lung cancer had nearly twice the complication rate but only a slightly higher readmission rate than thoracoscopic resection. More complications occurred after discharge after thoracoscopic than open resections. Most readmissions occurred within 2 weeks after both thoracoscopic and open resections. Risk-adjusted comparison identified no statistically significant difference in risk of related, unplanned readmission after thoracoscopic versus open resections. Future studies should focus on identification of processes of care to decrease complications and unplanned readmissions after lung cancer resection.

Objective Although previous studies have identified variation in quality lung cancer care, existing quality metrics may not fully capture the complexity of cancer care. The Thoracic Surgery Outcomes Research Network recently developed quality measures to address this. We evaluated baseline adherence to these measures and identified factors associated with adherence. Methods Patients with pathologic stage I and II non–small cell lung cancer from 2010 to 2015 were identified in the National Cancer Database. Patient-level and hospital-level adherence to 7 quality measures was calculated. Goal hospital adherence threshold was 85%. Factors influencing adherence were identified using multilevel logistic regression. Results We identified 253,182 patients from 1324 hospitals. Lymph node sampling was performed in 91% of patients nationally, but only 76% of hospitals met the 85% adherence mark. Similarly, 89% of T1b (seventh edition staging) tumors had anatomic resection, with 69% hospital-level adherence. Sixty-nine percent of pathologic stage II patients were recommended chemotherapy, with only 23% hospitals adherent. Eighty-three percent of patients had biopsy before primary radiation, with 64% hospitals adherent. Higher volume and academic institutions were associated with nonadherence to adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy measures. Conversely, lower volume and nonacademic institutions were associated with inadequate nodal sampling and nonanatomic resection. Conclusions Significant gaps continue to exist in the delivery of quality care to patients with early-stage lung cancer. High-volume academic hospitals had higher adherence for surgical care measures, but lower rates for coordination of care measures. This requires further investigation, but suggests targets for quality improvement may vary by institution type.

Introduction: The relationship between altitude during treatment and common postoperative infections remains to be established. Based on the inverse relationship between oxygen partial pressure and...

Background The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) is a parsimonious set of models providing accurate preoperative prediction of common adverse outcomes for individual patients. However, focus groups with surgeons and patients have developed a list of questions about and recommendations for how to further improve SURPAS’s usability and usefulness. Eight issues were systematically evaluated to improve SURPAS. Methods The eight issues were divided into three groups: concerns to be addressed through further analysis of the database; addition of features to the SURPAS tool; and the collection of additional outcomes. Standard multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the 2005–2015 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Participant Use File (ACS NSQIP PUF) to refine models: substitution of the preoperative sepsis variable with a procedure-related risk variable; testing of an indicator variable for multiple concurrent procedure codes in complex operations; and addition of outcomes to increase clinical applicability. Automated risk documentation in the electronic health record and a patient handout and supporting documentation were developed. Long term functional outcomes were considered. Results Model discrimination and calibration improved when preoperative sepsis was replaced with a procedure-related risk variable. Addition of an indicator variable for multiple concurrent procedures did not significantly improve the models. Models were developed for a revised set of eleven adverse postoperative outcomes that separated bleeding/transfusion from the cardiac outcomes, UTI from the other infection outcomes, and added a predictive model for unplanned readmission. Automated documentation of risk assessment in the electronic health record, visual displays of risk for providers and patients and an “About” section describing the development of the tool were developed and implemented. Long term functional outcomes were considered to be beyond the scope of the current SURPAS tool. Conclusion Refinements to SURPAS were successful in improving the accuracy of the models, while reducing manual entry to five of the eight variables. Adding a predictor variable to indicate a complex operation with multiple current procedure codes did not improve the accuracy of the models. We developed graphical displays of risk for providers and patients, including a take-home handout and automated documentation of risk in the electronic health record. These improvements should facilitate easier implementation of SURPAS. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13037-019-0208-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) complication status of patients who underwent an operation at the University of Colorado Hospital, we developed a machine learning algorithm for identifying patients with one or more complications using data from the electronic health record (EHR). Methods We used an elastic-net model to estimate regression coefficients and carry out variable selection. International classification of disease codes (ICD-9), common procedural terminology (CPT) codes, medications, and CPT-specific complication event rate were included as predictors. Results Of 6840 patients, 922 (13.5%) had at least one of the 18 complications tracked by NSQIP. The model achieved 88% specificity, 83% sensitivity, 97% negative predictive value, 52% positive predictive value, and an area under the curve of 0.93. Conclusions Using machine learning on EHR postoperative data linked to NSQIP outcomes data, a model with 163 predictors from the EHR identified complications well at our institution.

Despite progress in many different domains of surgical care, we are still striving toward practices which will consistently lead to the best care for an increasingly complex surgical population. Thoracic surgical patients, as a group, have multiple medical co-morbidities and are at increased risk for developing complications after surgical intervention. Our healthcare systems have been focused on treating complications as they occur in the hopes of minimizing their impact, as well as aiding in recovery. In recent years there has emerged a body of evidence outlining opportunities to optimize patients and likely prevent or decrease the impact of many complications. The purpose of this review article is to summarize four major domains—optimal pain control, nutritional status, functional fitness, and smoking cessation—all of which can have a substantial impact on the thoracic surgical patient’s course in the hospital—as well as to describe opportunities for improvement, and areas for future research efforts.

Background: Improving surgical outcomes is important to patients, providers, and healthcare systems. Understanding best methods to ensure evidence based practices are successfully implemented and sustained in clinical practices leads to improved care. Dissemination and implementation (D&I) science facilitates the successful pathway from clinical trials to sustained implementation. Methods: We describe D&I science, introduce the consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR), a D&I framework, and provide an example of how CFIR was utilized to facilitate the translational process from design adaptations to implementation, broad utilization by clinicians, and sustainability of the SUrgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) tool into regular clinical practice. SURPAS creates data-driven individualized risk assessments of common adverse postoperative outcomes to enhance the informed consent process, shared decision making, and consequently improved surgical outcomes. The CFIR provided a structured systematic way to identify constructs influencing the D&I of SURPAS, including adaptations for the process and tool. Results: We identified three domains, each with specific constructs, that participants believed would strongly influence effectiveness of SURPAS implementation efforts: the importance of patients’ perspectives (outer setting); the quality of SURPAS (intervention characteristic); and integration of SURPAS into the electronic health record (inner setting). Additionally, providers’ positive attitudes toward and support of SURPAS (characteristics of individuals); and the ease of integration of SURPAS into the workflow (process), were also identified. Tension emerged between patients’ preference of the provision of risk information and providers’ concern about additional clinic time required for formal risk discussion with low-risk patients. Conclusions: Systematically identifying constructs from the beginning of the design through the implementation process can guide design of a multi-component strategy for future large-scale implementation by assessing the relative impact of factors on implementation using the CFIR framework. In the example studied, this allows key stakeholders to ensure success of D&I of SURPAS at multiple levels and times, continuously optimizing the process.

Patients express strong opinion regarding discharge destination, preferring discharge home vs elsewhere. As focus on patient satisfaction increases, we sought to understand differences in postoperative discharge destination after minimally invasive vs open anatomic lung resection for lung cancer to guide patient education and management and better understand the postoperative patient experience.Procedures were identified by Current Procedural Terminology and International Classification of Diseases codes using the 2012-2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program dataset. Propensity score analysis was used to assess the relationship between the surgical approach and nonhome discharge destination (primary outcome) and postoperative complications; related, unplanned readmission; and mortality (secondary outcomes).A total of 17,303 patients underwent anatomic lung resection for lung cancer, including 10,121 (58.5%) minimally invasive and 7182 (41.5%) open resections. Patients undergoing open resection had 60% greater odds of nonhome discharge (P.001), 58% greater odds of postoperative mortality (P = .003), 36% greater odds of postoperative complication (P.001), and 17% greater odds of readmission (P = .04) compared with patients undergoing minimally invasive resection.The minimally invasive approach to lung resection for lung cancer offers patients a more desirable patient-centered postoperative experience, as well as more favorable clinical outcomes, and should be favored when feasible.

Background Sarcopenia may be an important predictive factor of outcomes after lung transplantation (LTx). Serum albumin and the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) have been shown to be a marker of LTx outcomes. We measured sarcopenia, albumin, and 6MWD in a cohort of LTx patients and analyzed the utility of these as markers of outcomes for LTx patients. Methods We retrospectively identified LTx recipients from 2013-2018 at our institution who underwent computed tomographic imaging during their listing evaluation. From that image, we measured skeletal muscle cross-sectional surface area at the third lumbar vertebral level, and sarcopenia was diagnosed by established cutoffs. Associations between sarcopenia, albumin, 6MWD, and survival, and hospital length of stay, complications, readmissions, and discharge destination were evaluated. Results Sarcopenia was found in 72% (95 of 132) of patients, 18% (24 of 131) of patients were hypoalbuminemic, and 41% had a low 6MWD. Survival was not associated with presence of sarcopenia (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-2.42) or low 6MWD (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.410-1.83). Hospital length of stay, complications, readmissions, and discharge destination were not influenced by sarcopenia or 6MWD. In contrast, hypoalbuminemia was independently associated with decreased survival (HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.04-4.85) and a higher grade of postoperative complications (P = .04). Conclusions Sarcopenia is prevalent in LTx patients. Neither sarcopenia nor 6MWD predicted mortality or short-term outcomes after LTx. This is in contrast to albumin levels, which were inversely associated with survival and complications. Albumin shows promise as an important predictor of mortality and short-term outcomes after LTx.

Tracheal laceration is a known complication of endotracheal intubation. This rare complication remains a diagnostic and management challenge for today’s practitioners. This clinical challenge report highlights current surgical and anesthetic management strategies.

Leaks from intrathoracic esophagogastric anastomosis are thought to be associated with higher rates of morbidity and mortality than leaks from cervical anastomosis. We challenge this assumption and hypothesize that there is no significant difference in mortality based on the location of the esophagogastric anastomosis. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed and Embase databases on all studies published from January 2000 to June 2015, comparing transthoracic (TTE) and transhiatal (THE) esophagectomies. Studies using jejunal or colonic interposition were excluded. Outcomes analyzed were leak rate, leak-associated mortality, overall 30-day mortality, and overall morbidity. Meta-analyses were performed using Mantel–Haenszel statistical analyses on studies reporting leak rates of both approaches. Nominal data are presented as frequency and interquartile range (IQR); measures of the association between treatments and outcomes are presented as odds ratio (OR) with 95 % confidence interval. Twenty-one studies (3 randomized controlled trials) were analyzed comprising of 7167 patients (54 % TTE). TTE approach yields a lower anastomotic leak rate (9.8 %; IQR 6.0–12.2 %) than THE (12 %; IQR 11.6–22.1 %; OR 0.56 [0.34–0.92]), without any significant difference in leak associated mortality (7.1 % TTE vs. 4.6 % THE: OR 1.83 [0.39–8.52]). There was no difference in overall 30-day mortality (3.9 % TTE vs. 4.3 % THE; OR 0.86 [0.66–1.13]) and morbidity (59.0 % TTE vs. 66.6 % THE; OR 0.76 [0.37–1.59]). Based on meta-analysis, TTE is associated with a lower leak rate and does not result in higher morbidity or mortality than THE. The previously assumed higher rate of transthoracic anastomotic leak-associated mortality is overstated, thus supporting surgeon discretion and other factors to influence the choice of thoracic versus cervical anastomosis.

OBJECTIVE To develop parsimonious prediction models for postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 complication clusters applicable to a broad range of surgical operations in adult patients. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA Quantitative risk assessment tools are not routinely used for preoperative patient assessment, shared decision making, informed consent, and preoperative patient optimization, likely due in part to the burden of data collection and the complexity of incorporation into routine surgical practice. METHODS Multivariable forward selection stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to develop predictive models for 30-day mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 postoperative complication clusters, using 40 preoperative variables from 2,275,240 surgical cases in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set, 2005 to 2012. For the mortality and overall morbidity outcomes, prediction models were compared with and without preoperative laboratory variables, and generic models (based on all of the data from 9 surgical specialties) were compared with specialty-specific models. In each model, the cumulative c-index was used to examine the contribution of each added predictor variable. C-indexes, Hosmer-Lemeshow analyses, and Brier scores were used to compare discrimination and calibration between models. RESULTS For the mortality and overall morbidity outcomes, the prediction models without the preoperative laboratory variables performed as well as the models with the laboratory variables, and the generic models performed as well as the specialty-specific models. The c-indexes were 0.938 for mortality, 0.810 for overall morbidity, and for the 6 complication clusters ranged from 0.757 for infectious to 0.897 for pulmonary complications. Across the 8 prediction models, the first 7 to 11 variables entered accounted for at least 99% of the c-index of the full model (using up to 28 nonlaboratory predictor variables). CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that it will be possible to develop parsimonious models to predict 8 important postoperative outcomes for a broad surgical population, without the need for surgeon specialty-specific models or inclusion of laboratory variables.

We provide a practical approach to the complex management problem of chyle leaks that occur after surgical procedures or trauma, or when they occur spontaneously in association with malignancies. The volume of chyle loss causes significant problems due to loss of fluid, electrolytes, proteins, and lymphocytes, causing deleterious effects on wound healing and immunity. Enteral feeding is not always possible as long chain fatty acids are absorbed through the intestinal lacteals, the original source of chyle. Regular diets increase the leak and delay healing. Nutritional support involves coordinated care between healthcare providers to provide a combination of various modalities, including nil by mouth, parenteral nutrition, enteral feeding with formula modifications, and oral diet.

Chylothorax is the common manifestation of injury to the thoracic duct secondary to non-surgical trauma, surgical trauma, or malignancy, and associated with a 10% mortality rate. Approximately half of patients with chylothorax respond to non-surgical management typically entailing a combination of pleural drainage, NPO, TPN, diuresis and antisecretory agent administration. Failure to resolve with dietary modification usually necessitates surgical intervention. This is achieved by thoracic duct ligation via right thoracotomy. Anatomy of the thoracic duct is variable with only 50% of patients having a dominant right-sided thoracic duct ascending the posterior mediastinum, crossing over to the left around T5, and terminating into the confluence of the left subclavian and internal jugular veins. The operation entails single lung isolation with access to the thoracic duct via a seventh interspace right lateral thoracotomy. The thoracic duct is isolated low in the chest within soft tissue between the esophagus, aorta and azygous vein overlying the vertebrae. Exposure can be aided by placement of a temporary orogastric tube in the esophagus, and downward retraction of the diaphragm via a suture. This soft tissue is mass ligated at three adjacent positions with nonabsorbable suture. Patients are kept NPO on TPN for five days postoperatively before advancing the diet to confirm resolution of the chyle leak.

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of using the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) on patient satisfaction and surgeon efficiency in the surgical informed consent process, as compared to surgeons' "usual" consent process.Patient perception of the consent process was assessed via survey in 2 cohorts: 10 surgeons in different specialties used their "usual" consent process for 10 patients; these surgeons were then taught to use SURPAS, and they used it during the informed consent process of 10 additional patients. The data were compared using Fisher's exact test and the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test.One hundred patients underwent the "usual" consent process (USUAL), and 93 underwent SURPAS-guided consent (SURPAS). Eighty-two percent of SURPAS were "very satisfied" and 18% were "satisfied" with risk discussion vs 16% and 72% of USUAL, respectively. Of those who used SURPAS, 75.3% reported the risk discussion made them "more comfortable" with surgery vs 19% of USUAL, and 90.3% of SURPAS users reported "somewhat" or "greatly decreased" anxiety vs 20% of USUAL. All p values were0.0001. Among SURPAS patients, 97.9% reported "enough time spent discussing risks" vs 72.0% of USUAL patients.The SURPAS tool improved the informed consent process for patients compared with the "usual" consent process, in terms of patient satisfaction, ie making patients feel more comfortable and less anxious about their impending operations. Providers should consider integrating the SURPAS tool into their preoperative consent process.

Purpose In early-stage non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), post-treatment mortality may influence the comparative effectiveness of surgery and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), with implications for shared decision making among high-risk surgical candidates. We analyzed early mortality after these interventions using the National Cancer Database. Patients and Methods We abstracted patients with cT1-T2a, N0, M0 NSCLC diagnosed between 2004 and 2013 undergoing either surgery or SBRT. Thirty-day and 90-day post-treatment mortality rates were calculated and compared using Cox regression and propensity score–matched analyses. Results We identified 76,623 patients who underwent surgery (78% lobectomy, 20% sublobar resection, 2% pneumonectomy) and 8,216 patients who received SBRT. In the unmatched cohort, mortality rates were moderately increased with surgery versus SBRT (30 days, 2.07% v 0.73% [absolute difference (Δ), 1.34%]; P < .001; 90 days, 3.59% v 2.93% [Δ, 0.66%]; P < .001). Among the 27,200 propensity score–matched patients, these differences increased (30 days, 2.41% v 0.79% [Δ, 1.62%]; P < .001; 90 days, 4.23% v 2.82% [Δ, 1.41%]; P < .001). Differences in mortality between surgery and SBRT increased with age, with interaction P < .001 at both 30 days and 90 days (71 to 75 years old: 30-day Δ, 1.87%; 90-day Δ, 2.02%; 76 to 80 years old: 30-day Δ, 2.80%; 90-day Δ, 2.59%; > 80 years old: 30-day Δ, 3.03%; 90-day Δ, 3.67%; all P ≤ .001). Compared with SBRT, surgical mortality rates were higher with increased extent of resection (30-day and 90-day multivariate hazard ratio for mortality: sublobar resection, 2.85 and 1.37; lobectomy, 3.65 and 1.60; pneumonectomy, 14.5 and 5.66; all P < 0.001). Conclusion Differences in 30- and 90-day post-treatment mortality between surgery and SBRT increased as a function of age, with the largest differences in favor of SBRT observed among patients older than 70 years. These representative mortality data may inform shared decision making among patients with early-stage NSCLC who are eligible for both interventions.

Chronic chest wall infections may occur in soft tissue, cartilage, and bone. They may present as localized chest wall pain, a discrete mass initially mistaken for neoplasm, a superficial infection, or a draining sinus. Chronic chest wall infections are typically non-necrotizing and associated with lower morbidity than their more acute and necrotizing counterparts. Effective management of chest wall infections ranges from antimicrobial administration to wide surgical resection and subsequent reconstruction.

Background Hospital readmissions are increasingly viewed as a marker of inferior health care quality and penalized with decreased reimbursement. The timing of, and reasons for, readmissions after esophagectomy for cancer are not well understood. We examined the association of complications to 30-day postoperative-related, unplanned readmission to identify opportunities for improvement in patient care. Methods We analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2012 to 2015) to characterize 30-day postoperative unplanned readmissions after esophagectomy for cancer using descriptive statistics. Type and timing of readmission after discharge was assessed. A Cox proportional hazards model was developed to identify predictors of readmission. Results Of 3,723 patients who underwent esophagectomy for cancer, 1,419 (38.1%) experienced ≥1 complication within 30 days. A total of 400 patients (10.7%) experienced related, unplanned readmissions within 30 days of the operation, and postoperative complications were documented in 263 (65.8%). Leading causes of readmission were infectious, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal complications. Of these patients, 155 (59%) were readmitted within 7 days and 236 (90%) within 14 days of discharge. The Cox proportional hazards model identified readmission being associated with occurrence of postdischarge infectious, pulmonary, venous thromboembolic, and urinary tract infection complications, in-hospital urinary tract infection complications, and log-transformation of length of stay (representing increasing length of stay) (all p Conclusions Postoperative occurrence of common complications and prolonged length of stay are associated with unplanned readmission after esophagectomy. Most patients are readmitted within 1 week of discharge. Earlier follow-up after discharge may identify patients with complications and facilitate outpatient intervention to prevent readmission.

Many centers use botulinum toxin for chemical pyloroplasty in minimally invasive esophagectomies as prophylaxis against delayed gastric emptying. No previous studies have compared botulinum toxin injection with no pyloric intervention for patients treated with a combined laparoscopic and thoracoscopic approach. The authors hypothesized that chemical pyloroplasty does not improve outcomes for these patients.The study investigated patients undergoing minimally invasive esophagectomies from September 2009 to June 2015. Delayed gastric emptying was defined as inability to tolerate a soft diet by postoperative day 10, as corroborated by esophagram, upper endoscopy, or both. Data were compared using Student's t test, χThe study identified 71 patients treated with minimally invasive esophagectomy: 35 patients with chemical pyloroplasty treated from September 2009 to January 2014 and 36 patients without pyloric intervention from February 2014 to June 2015. The groups were statistically similar in age, gender distribution, T stage, percentage of patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy, body mass index, preoperative weight loss, preoperative serum albumin, and preoperative placement of feeding tubes (all p 0.05). The overall incidence of delayed gastric emptying was low in both groups: 8.6% (3/35) of the patients with chemical pyloroplasty versus 5.6% (2/36) of the patients with no pyloric intervention (p = 0.62). The two groups also did not differ significantly in the development of aspiration pneumonia or the need for pyloric intervention.In a well-matched cohort study with a historical control group, use of botulinum toxin for chemical pyloroplasty in minimally invasive esophagectomies was not associated with improved outcomes related to the pylorus versus no pyloric intervention. Although preliminary, these data suggest that chemical pyloroplasty is not necessary in minimally invasive esophagectomy.

Background Unplanned return to the operating room (uROR) has been suggested as a hospital quality indicator. The purpose of this study was to determine reasons for uROR to identify opportunities for patient care improvement. Methods uROR reported by our institution's American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program underwent secondary review. Results The uROR rate reported by clinical reviewers was 4.3%. Secondary review re-categorized 64.7% as “true uROR” with the most common reasons for uROR being infection (30.9%) and bleeding (23.6%). Remaining cases were categorized as “false uROR” with the most common reasons being inadequate documentation (60.0%) and not directly related to index procedure (16.7%). Conclusions Strict adherence to NSQIP definitions results in misidentification of true uROR. This raises concerns for using NSQIP-identified uROR as a hospital quality metric. Improved processes of care to prevent infection and hemorrhage at our institution could reduce the rate of true uROR.

To use factor analysis to cluster the 18 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) perioperative complications into a reproducible, smaller number of clinically meaningful groups of postoperative complications, facilitating and streamlining future study and application in live clinical settings.The ACS NSQIP collects and reports on eighteen 30-day postoperative complications (excluding mortality), which are variably grouped in published analyses using ACS NSQIP data. This hinders comparison between studies of this widely used quality improvement dataset.Factor analysis was used to develop a series of complication clusters, which were then analyzed to identify a parsimonious, clinically meaningful grouping, using 2,275,240 surgical cases in the ACS NSQIP Participant Use File (PUF), 2005 to 2012. The main outcome measures are reproducible, data-driven, clinically meaningful clusters of complications derived from factor solutions.Factor analysis solutions for 5 to 9 latent factors were examined for their percent of total variance, parsimony, and clinical interpretability. Applying the first 2 of these criteria, we identified the 7-factor solution, which included clusters of pulmonary, infectious, wound disruption, cardiac/transfusion, venous thromboembolic, renal, and neurological complications, as the best solution for parsimony and clinical meaningfulness. Applying the last (clinical interpretability), we combined the wound disruption with the infectious clusters resulting in 6 clusters for future clinical applications.Factor analysis of ACS NSQIP postoperative complication data provides 6 clinically meaningful complication clusters in lieu of 18 postoperative morbidities, which will facilitate comparisons and clinical implementation of studies of postoperative morbidities.

To develop accurate preoperative risk prediction models for multiple adverse postoperative outcomes applicable to a broad surgical population using a parsimonious common set of risk variables and outcomes.Currently, preoperative assessment of surgical risk is largely based on subjective clinician experience. We propose a paradigm shift from the current postoperative risk adjustment for cross-hospital comparison to patient-centered quantitative risk assessment during the preoperative evaluation.We identify the most common and important predictor variables of postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 complication clusters from previously published prediction analyses that used forward selection stepwise logistic regression. We then refit the prediction models using only the 8 most common and important predictor variables, and compare the discrimination and calibration of these models to the original full-variable models using the c-index, Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis, and Brier scores.Accurate risk models for 30-day outcomes of mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 clusters of complications were developed using a set of 8 preoperative risk variables. C-indexes of the 8 variable models are between 97.9% and 99.2% of those of the full models containing up to 28 variables, indicating excellent discrimination using fewer predictor variables. Hosmer-Lemeshow analyses showed observed to expected event rates to be nearly identical between parsimonious models and full models, both showing good calibration.Accurate preoperative risk assessment of postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, and 6 complication clusters in a broad surgical population can be achieved with as few as 8 preoperative predictor variables, improving feasibility of routine preoperative risk assessment for surgical patients.

Objective Volume–outcome relationships for esophageal cancer resection have been well described with centers of excellence defined by volume. No consensus exists for what constitutes a "high-volume" center. We aim to determine if an objective evidence-based threshold of operative volume associated with improvement in operative outcome for esophageal resections can be defined. Methods Retrospective analysis was performed on patients undergoing esophageal resection for cancer in the 1998 to 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. A series of multivariable analyses were performed, changing the resection volume cutoff to account for the range of annual hospital resections. The goodness of fit of each model was compared by pseudo r 2 , the amount of data variance explained by each model. Results A total of 4080 patients underwent esophageal resection. The median annual hospital resection volume was 4 (range: 1–34). The mortality rate of "high-volume" centers ranged from 9.94% (≥2 resection/year) to 1.56% (≥30 resections/year). The best model was with an annual hospital resection volume greater than or equal to 15 (3.87% of data variance explained). The difference in goodness of fit between the best model and other models with different volume cutoffs was 0.64%, suggesting that volume explains less than 1% of variance in perioperative death. Conclusion Our data do not support the use of volume cutoffs for defining centers of excellence for esophageal cancer resections. Although volume has an incremental impact on mortality, volume alone is insufficient for defining centers of excellence. Volume seems to function as an imperfect surrogate for other variables, which may better define centers of excellence. Additional work is needed to identify these variables.