1. The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States
- Author
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Rahi Abouk and Babak Heydari
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Physical Distancing ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,stay-at-home ,difference-in-differences ,0502 economics and business ,Epidemiology ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,050207 economics ,Psychiatry ,Anecdotal evidence ,Health policy ,Health Policy ,Research ,Social distance ,05 social sciences ,social distancing ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,COVID-19 ,United States ,Prevention control ,Psychology - Abstract
Objective Although anecdotal evidence indicates the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social-distancing policies, their effectiveness in relation to what is driven by public awareness and voluntary actions needs to be determined. We evaluated the effectiveness of the 6 most common social-distancing policies in the United States (statewide stay-at-home orders, limited stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, bans on large gatherings, school closure mandates, and limits on restaurants and bars) during the early stage of the pandemic. Methods We applied difference-in-differences and event-study methodologies to evaluate the effect of the 6 social-distancing policies on Google-released aggregated, anonymized daily location data on movement trends over time by state for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 6 location categories: retail and recreation, grocery stores and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences. We compared the outcome of interest in states that adopted COVID-19–related policies with states that did not adopt such policies, before and after these policies took effect during February 15–April 25, 2020. Results Statewide stay-at-home orders had the strongest effect on reducing out-of-home mobility and increased the time people spent at home by an estimated 2.5 percentage points (15.2%) from before to after policies took effect. Limits on restaurants and bars ranked second and resulted in an increase in presence at home by an estimated 1.4 percentage points (8.5%). The other 4 policies did not significantly reduce mobility. Conclusion Statewide stay-at-home orders and limits on bars and restaurants were most closely linked to reduced mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the potential benefits of other such policies may have already been reaped from voluntary social distancing. Further research is needed to understand how the effect of social-distancing policies changes as voluntary social distancing wanes during later stages of a pandemic.
- Published
- 2021