1. Risk of travel-related cases of Zika virus infection is predicted by transmission intensity in outbreak-affected countries
- Author
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Nicholas H. Ogden, Victoria Ng, Aamir Fazil, Kristina Decock, Justine Wallace, Michael A. Drebot, Erin E. Rees, and David Safronetz
- Subjects
Travellers ,Risk ,Veterinary medicine ,Surveillance data ,030231 tropical medicine ,Basic Reproduction Number ,Logistic regression ,Risk Assessment ,Zika virus ,Disease Outbreaks ,Odds ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Disease Transmission, Infectious ,Humans ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Transmission intensity ,Travel ,biology ,Zika Virus Infection ,business.industry ,Research ,Outbreak ,biology.organism_classification ,Infectious Diseases ,South american ,Parasitology ,Americas ,Travel-Related Illness ,business ,Basic reproduction number ,Demography - Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is emerging globally, currently causing outbreaks in the Caribbean, and Central and South America, and putting travellers to affected countries at risk. Model-based estimates for the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of ZIKV in affected Caribbean and Central and South American countries, obtained from 2015 to 2016 human case surveillance data, were compared by logistic regression and Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC), with the prevalence of ZIKV-positive test results in Canadians who travelled to them. Estimates of R 0 for each country were a good predictor of the ZIKV test result (ROC area under the curve = 0.83) and the odds of testing positive was 11-fold greater for travellers visiting countries with estimated R 0 ≥ 2.76, compared to those visiting countries with R 0
- Published
- 2017
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