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The increasing prevalence of the chronic disease is of considerable concern to health-care organisations. Prevention programmes to patients with early chronic disease have the potential to improve individual health and quality of life through disease avoidance or delay and to save the medical cost of the health care system. Due to the limited budget in healthcare this study seeks to analyse the feasibility of a programme prior to implementation. A mathematical model is developed to determine incidence reduction rate at which the underlying cost break-even can be achieved; consequently, the programme would be feasible. We show the existence and uniqueness of the underlying incidence reduction and establish the feasibility frontier concerning the trade-offs between intervention effective period and incidence reduction rate. We use a diabetes prevention programme to demonstrate the efficiency and advantage of the model. The proposed model would inform decision-makers scientific principles in determining an intervention for implementation.

Summary Background Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite considerable improvements in diagnosis and treatment, little is known about the short-term and long-term prognosis after a first stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, including China. We aimed to assess the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent stroke and mortality after a first stroke for each of the major pathological stroke types. Methods This population-based cohort study included adults aged 35–74 years without disability who were recruited to the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). A baseline survey was conducted in ten geographical areas (five urban, five rural) in China, and participants had clinical measurements recorded. Participants were followed up by monitoring death registries and by electronic linkage to health registries and health insurance claims databases, with follow-up until Jan 1, 2017. Participants were excluded from analyses if they had a previous history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or ischaemic heart disease at baseline. All incidences of fatal and non-fatal stroke during the study period were recorded by type (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and unspecified type). Primary outcome measures were 28-day mortality, recurrent stroke, major vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death), vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Findings Of 512 715 individuals in the CKB, 489 586 participants without previous ischaemic heart disease and stroke at recruitment were included, of whom 45 732 (42 073 [92%] confirmed by brain imaging) had a stroke during the study period. The mean age was 59·3 years (SD 9·8) for participants who had a stroke (54% women) and 50·8 years (10·3) for participants with no stroke (60% women). 36 588 (80%) of the incident cases of stroke were ischaemic stroke, 7440 (16%) were intracerebral haemorrhage, 702 (2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 1002 (2%) were an unspecified stroke type. 28-day mortality was 3% (95% CI 3–4) for ischaemic stroke, 47% (46–48)for intracerebral haemorrhage, 19% (17–22; 52% for rural areas and 32% for urban areas) subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 24% (22–27) for unspecified stroke. Among participants who survived stroke at 28 days, 41% (41–42) had recurrent stroke at 5 years (ischaemic stroke 41% [41–42], intracerebral haemorrhage 44% [42–46], subarachnoid haemorrhage 22% [18–27], unspecified stroke type 40% [35–44]) and mortality at 5 years was 17% ([17–18] ischaemic stroke 16% [15–16], intracerebral haemorrhage 28% [26–29], subarachnoid haemorrhage 16% [12–20], unspecified stroke type 15% [12–19]). After a first ischaemic stroke, 91% of recurrent strokes were also ischaemic stroke; after an intracerebral haemorrhage, 56% of recurrent strokes were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 41% of recurrent strokes were ischaemic stroke. Interpretation After a first stroke, the risk of recurrence or death within 5 years was high among this population of Chinese adults. Urgent improvements to secondary prevention of stroke in China are needed to reduce these risks. Funding Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China. Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Our aim was to explore optimal treatment decisions for HbA1c control for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients and assess the impact on potential improvements in quality of life compared with current guidelines. We analyzed a large dataset of HbA1c levels, diabetes-related key risk factors and medication dispensed to 70,069 patients with type 2 diabetes from polyclinics and a large public hospital in Singapore during January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2015. A Markov decision process (MDP) model was developed to determine the optimal treatment policy concerning medication management for glycemic control over a long-term treatment period. We assessed the model performance by comparing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by the model with those derived by a conventional Markov model informed by current clinical guidelines. Numerical results showed that optimal treatment strategies derived by the MDP model could increase the total expected QALYs by as much as 0.27 years for patients at higher risk such as old age, high HbA1c levels and smokers. In particular, the improvements in QALYs gained for patients with HbA1c levels of 9% (75 mmol/mol) and above were higher than those with lower HbA1c levels. However, the potential improvements appeared to be marginal for patients at lower risk compared with current guidelines. Use of data-driven prescriptive analytics would help clinicians make evidence-based treatment decisions for HbA1c control for patients with type 2 diabetes, in particular for those at high risk.

Background: Cooking practice has transitioned from use of solid fuels to use of clean fuels, with addition of better ventilation facilities. However, the change in mortality risk associated with such a transition remains unclear. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) Study enrolled participants (aged 30–79 years) from ten areas across China; we chose to study participants from five urban areas where transition from use of solid fuels to clean fuels for cooking was prevalent. Participants who reported regular cooking (weekly or more frequently) at baseline were categorised as persistent clean fuel users, previous solid fuel users, or persistent solid fuel users, according to self-reported fuel use histories. All-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality were identified through linkage to China's Disease Surveillance Point system and local mortality records. Findings: Between June 24, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 226 186 participants living in five urban areas of China were enrolled in the CKB Study. Among 171 677 participants who reported cooking regularly (weekly or more frequently), 75 785 (44%) were persistent clean fuel users, 80 511 (47%) were previous solid fuel users, and 15 381 (9%) were persistent solid fuel users. During a mean of 9·8 (SD 1·7) years of follow-up, 10 831 deaths were documented, including 3819 cardiovascular deaths and 761 respiratory deaths. Compared with persistent clean fuel users, persistent solid fuel users had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·19, 95% CI 1·10–1·28), cardiovascular mortality (1·24, 1·10–1·39), and respiratory mortality (1·43, 1·10–1·85). The excess risk of all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality fell by more than 60% in 5 years after cessation of solid fuel use and continued to decrease afterwards. Use of ventilation was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk, even among persistent clean fuel users (HR 0·78, 0·69–0·89). Interpretation: Solid fuel use for cooking is associated with a higher risk of mortality, and cessation of solid fuel use cuts excess mortality risks swiftly and substantially within 5 years. Ventilation use also lowers the risk of mortality, even among people who persistently use clean fuels. It is of prime importance for both policy makers and the public to accelerate the transition from solid fuels to clean fuels and promote efficient ventilation to minimise further adverse health effects.

A few prospective studies have suggested that tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption may reduce the risk of kidney stones. However, little is known whether such associations and their combined effect persist in Chinese adults, for whom the popular tea and alcohol drinks are different from those investigated in the aforementioned studies. The present study included 502,621 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Information about tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption was self-reported at baseline. The first documented cases of kidney stones during follow-up were collected through linkage with the national health insurance system. Cox regression was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, we collected 12,407 cases of kidney stones. After multivariable adjustment, tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption were found to be negatively associated with kidney stone risk, but the linear trend was only found in tea and fruit consumption. Compared with non-tea consumers, the HR (95% CI) for participants who drank ≥7 cups of tea per day was 0.73 (0.65–0.83). Compared with non-alcohol consumers, the HR (95% CI) was 0.79 (0.72–0.87) for participants who drank pure alcohol of 30.0–59.9 g per day but had no further decrease with a higher intake of alcohol. Compared with less-than-weekly consumers, the HR (95% CI) for daily fruit consumers was 0.81 (0.75–0.87). Even for those who did not drink alcohol excessively, increasing tea and fruit consumption could also independently reduce the stone risk. Among Chinese adults, tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption was associated with a lower risk of kidney stones.

Background and aims Observational studies have associated resting heart rate with incident diabetes. Whether the associations are causal remains unclear. We aimed to examine the shape and strength of the associations and assessed the causal relevance of such associations in Chinese adults. Methods and results The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512,891 adults in China. Cox proportional hazard regression models was conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of resting heart rate with type 2 diabetes and total diabetes. Among 92,724 participants, 36 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to resting heart rate were used to construct genetic risk score. We used Mendelian randomization analyses to make the causal inferences. During a median follow-up of 9 years, 7872 incident type 2 diabetes and 13,349 incident total diabetes were documented. After regression dilution bias adjustment, each 10 bpm higher heart rate was associated with about a 26% higher risk of type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.23, 1.29]) and 23% higher risk of total diabetes (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.20, 1.26]). Instrumental variable analyses showed participants at top quintile compared with those at bottom quintile had 30% higher risk for type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.17, 1.43]), and 10% higher risk for total diabetes (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.02, 1.20]). Conclusions This study provides evidence that resting heart rate is an important risk factor for diabetes risk. The results suggest that novel treatment approaches targeting reduction of high heart rate for incidence of diabetes may be worth further investigation.

Background: Nocturnal symptoms in Parkinson’s disease and their related burdens on patients are often treated after management of daytime manifestations. In order to better understand the unmet needs of nocturnal symptoms management, we sought to analyze the characteristics of nocturnal symptoms and their associated burden from patients’ perspectives in 2016 to 2018 and explore whether there were any changes in participants' needs over time across 3 years. Overall symptoms (occurring at day or night) were collected to contrast and compare whether the unmet healthcare needs related to nocturnal symptoms and to overall symptoms are different.Methods: We used a contemporary Social Listening big-data technique to analyze large amounts of Parkinson’s disease symptoms in patient-doctor and patient-patient dialogues available from social media platforms in 2016 to 2018 in China. These symptoms were classified as either overall symptoms or nocturnal symptoms. We used share of voice (SOV) of symptoms as a proportion of total dialogues per year to reflect the characteristics of symptoms from patients’ perspectives. Negative sentiment score of symptoms was analyzed to find out their related burden on patients. Results: We found that SOV for overall motor symptoms was 79% and had not increased between 2016 and 2018 (79%, p = 0.5), but SOV for non-motor symptoms (69% in 2018) had grown by 7% in 2018 (p < 0.01). SOV for motor complications was 9%, and had increased by 6% (p < 0.01) by 2018. The SOV of motor symptoms was significantly larger than non-motor symptoms and motor complications (p < 0.01) in each year. The SOV of non-motor symptoms was larger than that of motor complication (p < 0.01). For nocturnal symptoms, 45% of the analyzed PD population reported nocturnal symptoms in 2018, growing by 6% from 2016 (p < 0.01). SOV for nocturnal-occurring motor symptoms was higher than most non-motor symptoms (except insomnia). However, non-motor symptoms had the higher increases in SOV. Non-motor symptoms evoked higher negative sentiment regardless of whether they occurred during the day or night. For symptoms that can occur at either day or night, each nocturnal symptom was rated with a higher negative sentiment score than the same symptom during the day, regardless of the type of symptom.Conclusions: The growing share of voice and the greater negative sentiment of nocturnal symptoms from patients’ perspectives suggest that management of nocturnal symptoms is an unmet need of patients with Parkinson’s disease. A greater emphasis on detecting nocturnal symptoms and treating them with 24-hour care is encouraged.

Simple Summary Thyroid hormones are extremely potent and exert a broad range of biological actions on many organ systems of all vertebrates including humans. Blood concentration of thyroid hormones mirrors thyroid status quite well. As thyroid hormone excess or deficiency can lead to serious diseases, it is crucial to ensure that measurement techniques of blood thyroid hormones are accurate and precise, especially during the treatment of an overactive or underactive thyroid. Until recently, many laboratories employ different methods of analysis of thyroid hormones, resulting in reports showing values calibrated to dissimilar normal ranges. This becomes a major issue for patients who are tested in different healthcare facilities as it is challenging to interpret their thyroid status and decide if any difference is due to a real change in hormone concentration or whether the variations occurred purely from calibration differences. In this study, we test the reliability of a mathematical system using linear transformation strategies to convert one value in one scale to another value in a separate scale. Via simultaneously analyzed unbound fraction of plasma thyroxine using three different techniques-immunoassay, mass spectrometry and equilibrium dialysis, we show that linear methods are quite successful in achieving accurate inter-scale thyroid hormone conversions. Abstract Clinicians often encounter thyroid function tests (TFT) comprising serum/plasma free thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) measured using different assay platforms during the course of follow-up evaluations which complicates reliable comparison and interpretation of TFT changes. Although interconversion between concentration units is straightforward, the validity of interconversion of FT4/TSH values from one assay platform to another with different reference intervals remains questionable. This study aims to establish an accurate and reliable methodology of interconverting FT4 by any laboratory to an equivalent FT4 value scaled to a reference range of interest via linear transformation methods. As a proof-of-concept, FT4 was simultaneously assayed by direct analog immunoassay, tandem mass spectrometry and equilibrium dialysis. Both linear and piecewise linear transformations proved relatively accurate for FT4 inter-scale conversion. Linear transformation performs better when FT4 are converted from a more accurate to a less accurate assay platform. The converse is true, whereby piecewise linear transformation is superior to linear transformation when converting values from a less accurate method to a more robust assay platform. Such transformations can potentially apply to other biochemical analytes scale conversions, including TSH. This aids interpretation of TFT trends while monitoring the treatment of patients with thyroid disorders.

ObjectiveAim to examine the independent and joint associations of physical activity (PA) and sedentary leisure-time (SLT) with risk of diabetes and assess the extent to which these associations were mediated by adiposity.Research design and methodsThe prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited ~512 000 adults from 10 diverse areas across China. Self-reported PA was estimated based on type, frequency and duration of specific types of PA, covering four domains (occupation, leisure, household and commuting). SLT was defined as hours per day spent watching television, reading or playing card games. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted HRs (aHRs) for PA and SLT associated with incident diabetes. Analyses were stratified by age-at-risk (5-year intervals), sex and region and adjusted for household income, education, alcohol consumption, smoking, fresh fruit intake, self-reported general health status, family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI) status. Analyses of total PA, occupational and non-occupational PA and SLT were mutually adjusted for each other, as appropriate.ResultsAfter ~9 years of follow-up, there were 14 940 incident diabetes cases among 460 736 participants without prior diabetes or cardiovascular diseases at baseline. The mean (SD) age at baseline was 51 (10.6) years, 59% were women and 43% resided in urban areas. Overall, the mean BMI was 23.5 (3.3) kg/m2, which differed by ~0.5 kg/m2 among individuals in the highest compared with the lowest PA and SLT groups. PA was inversely associated the risk of diabetes 16% (aHR: 0.84, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) lower in top than bottom fifth. After further adjustment for BMI this was attenuated to 0.99 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.00). SLT was positively associated with diabetes and each 1 hour per day higher usual level was associated with aHR of 1.13 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.17) for diabetes, attenuated to 1.05 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.09) after further adjustment for BMI.ConclusionsAmong Chinese adults, higher levels of PA and lower levels of SLT were associated with lower risks of diabetes with no evidence of effect modification by each other. These associations appeared to arise mainly through adiposity.

Timely access of care has been widely recognized as an important dimension of health care quality. Waiting times can affect patient satisfaction and quality of care in the emergency department (ED). This study analyzes a general patient waiting policy such that ED patients who wait beyond a threshold have their wait shortened. Assuming that the policy is implemented to accelerate the long-waiting cases within a short time interval, we transform the original waiting distribution to a piecewise distribution. The objective of this paper is to examine the reliability of the induced waiting system by minimizing the coefficient of variation (CV) of waiting time. We convert the CV minimization problem to an approximation counterpart using the sampling technique. With patient waiting time data from an emergency department in Singapore, we derive the optimal values of parameters, such as the threshold and the length of the underlying time interval, needed in the policy. Numerical results show that CV and variance of new waiting time will be reduced remarkably by 38% and 58% respectively, in comparison with the original ones.

Background Lean body mass has been identified as a key determinant of left ventricular mass and wall thickness. However, the importance of lean body mass or other body‐size measures as normative determinants of carotid intima‐media thickness ( cIMT ), a widely used early indicator of atherosclerosis, has not been well established. Methods and Results Carotid artery ultrasound measurements of cIMT and carotid artery plaque burden (derived from plaque number and maximum size) and measurements of body size, including height, body mass index, weight, body fat proportion, and lean body mass ([1−body fat proportion]×weight), were recorded in 25 020 participants from 10 regions of China. Analyses were restricted to a healthy younger subset (n=6617) defined as never or long‐term ex‐regular smokers aged cIMT , but was not associated with plaque burden: overall, each 10 kg higher lean body mass was associated with a 0.03 (95% CI , 0.03–0.04) mm higher cIMT ( P =5×10 −33 ). Fat mass, height, and other body‐size measures were more weakly associated with cIMT . Conclusions The strong association of lean body mass with cIMT, but not with plaque burden, in healthy adults suggests a normative relationship rather than reflecting atherosclerotic pathology. Common mechanisms may underlie the associations of lean body mass with cIMT and with nonatherosclerotic vascular traits.

Background Few studies in China have examined personal ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure using polysulfone dosimetry. Methods In this study, 93 mother and adolescent child pairs (N = 186) from two locations in China, one rural (higher latitude) and one urban (lower latitude), completed 3 days of personal UVR dosimetry and a sun/clothing diary, as part of a larger pilot study. Results The average daily ambient UVR in each location as measured by dosimetry was 20.24 Minimal Erythemal Doses (MED) in the rural location and 20.53 MED in the urban location. Rural mothers had more average daily time outdoors than urban mothers (5.5 h, compared with 1.5 h, in urban mothers) and a much higher daily average personal UVR exposure (4.50 MED, compared with 0.78 MED in urban mothers). Amongst adolescents, rural males had the highest average daily personal UVR exposure, followed by rural females, urban females and urban males (average 2.16, 1.05, 0.81, and 0.48 MED, respectively). Conclusions Although based on small numbers, our findings show the importance of geographic location, age, work/school responsibilities, and sex of the adolescents in determining personal UVR exposure in China. These results suggest that latitude of residence may not be a good proxy for personal UVR exposure in all circumstances.

Patient treatment and care in emergency departments (ED) is complex because of differences in patients’ acuity, co-morbidities and diagnoses. This paper aims to study how different diagnosis groups impact the utilization, which we estimate from patients’ touch points, of various functional areas at ED. We first mapped patient flow pathways across key functional areas in ED, and illustrated them using a network graph. We measured the utilization of these key areas and stratified them by diagnosis groups. The contribution of each diagnosis group to the area utilization was then estimated. A mathematical model was developed to perform impact analysis on the demand based on the utilization pattern. In particular, we estimated the changes in patients’ touch points in the key areas with the changes to the volumes of different diagnosis groups. The study showed that different diagnosis groups have different impact on the demand at the functional areas. In particular, patients with the diagnosis ‘Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions’ had the highest impact on the demand in almost all ED areas. The diagnosis ‘Acute respiratory infections’ appeared to have higher impact on the demand in the areas of Fever and Fever Observation.

Rationale Little evidence from large-scale cohort studies exists about the relationship of solid fuel use with hospitalization and mortality from major respiratory diseases. Objectives To examine the associations of solid fuel use and risks of acute and chronic respiratory diseases. Methods A cohort study of 277,838 Chinese never-smokers with no prior major chronic diseases at baseline. During 9 years of follow-up, 19,823 first hospitalization episodes or deaths from major respiratory diseases, including 10,553 chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), 4,398 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 7,324 acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), were recorded. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for disease risks associated with self-reported primary cooking fuel use. Measurements and Main Results Overall, 91% of participants reported regular cooking, with 52% using solid fuels. Compared with clean fuel users, solid fuel users had an adjusted HR of 1.36 (95% confidence interval, 1.32–1.40) for major respiratory diseases, whereas those who switched from solid to clean fuels had a weaker HR (1.14, 1.10–1.17). The HRs were higher in wood (1.37, 1.33–1.41) than coal users (1.22, 1.15–1.29) and in those with prolonged use (≥40 yr, 1.54, 1.48–1.60; Conclusions Among Chinese adults, solid fuel use for cooking was associated with higher risks of major respiratory disease admissions and death, and switching to clean fuels or use of ventilated cookstoves had lower risk than not switching.

Structural brain abnormalities in schizophrenia have been well characterized with the application of univariate methods to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. However, these traditional techniques lack sensitivity and predictive value at the individual level. Machine-learning approaches have emerged as potential diagnostic and prognostic tools. We used an anatomically and spatially regularized support vector machine (SVM) framework to categorize schizophrenia and healthy individuals based on whole-brain gray matter densities estimated using voxel-based morphometry from structural MRI scans. The regularized SVM model yielded recognition accuracy of 86.6% in the training set of 127 individuals and validation accuracy of 83.5% in an independent set of 85 individuals. A sequential region-of-interest (ROI) selection step was adopted for feature selection, improving recognition accuracy to 92.0% in the training set and 89.4% in the validation set. The combined model achieved 96.6% sensitivity and 74.1% specificity. Seven ROIs were identified as the optimal discriminatory subset: the occipital fusiform gyrus, middle frontal gyrus, pars opercularis of the inferior frontal gyrus, anterior superior temporal gyrus, superior frontal gyrus, left thalamus and left lateral ventricle. These findings demonstrate the utility of spatial and anatomical priors in SVM for neuroimaging analyses in conjunction with sequential ROI selection in the recognition of schizophrenia.

Background Self‐rated health ( SRH ) is a strong predictor of mortality in different populations. However, the associations between SRH measures and risk of ischemic heart disease ( IHD ) have not been extensively explored, especially in a Chinese population. Methods and Results More than 500 000 adults from 10 cities in China were followed from baseline (2004–2008) through December 31, 2013. Global and age‐comparative SRH were reported from baseline questionnaires. Incident IHD cases were identified through links to well‐established disease registry systems and the national health insurance system. During 3 423 542 person‐years of follow‐up, we identified 24 705 incident cases of IHD . In multivariable‐adjusted models, both global and age‐comparative SRH was significantly associated with incident IHD . Compared with excellent SRH , the hazard ratios for good, fair, and poor SRH were 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98–1.07), 1.32 (95% CI, 1.27–1.37), and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.68–1.85), respectively. Compared with better age‐comparative SRH , the hazard ratios for same and worse age‐comparative SRH were 1.23 (95% CI, 1.19–1.27) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.70–1.86), respectively. The associations persisted in all subgroup analyses, although they were slightly modified by study location, education, and income levels. Conclusions A simple questionnaire for self‐assessment of health status was significantly associated with incident IHD in Chinese adults. Individuals and healthcare providers can use SRH measures as a convenient tool for assessing future IHD risk.