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The main objective of this study is analyze the economic impact on residential fees under transition to distributed photovoltaic generation systems connected to the distribution networks in Brazil. We conducted several analyses, including assessing the Brazilian context through a cash flow competitiveness analysis, to characterize the effects that tariffs have on energy transitions in Brazil. In this context, our research estimates: i) the increase in fees for non-migrating consumers; ii) the revenue eviction of the distribution companies; and iii) the decrease in collection of government taxes under a net metering strategy adopted to encourage energy transition in Brazil. By analyzing the impacts on tariff scenario estimates, the results show that the period between 2023 and 2030 is crucial from a Brazilian energy policy perspective. In addition, we concluded that the use of the net metering model, currently applied in Brazil, could cause residential fee increases of 22–47% by 2035.

This paper analyzes the long-term and short-term effects of oil prices on ethanol, gasoline, and sugar price forecasts. With the help of a vector error correction with exogenous variable (VECX) model, and using the forecast of oil prices as an exogenous variable, we obtained simultaneous forecasts for ethanol, gasoline, and sugar prices. Due to the lack of a robust methodology for forecasting oil prices, we forecasted three scenarios that took the historical behavior of oil prices into account, and a fourth scenario that took into account the prediction of a prominent agency that specializes in forecasting commodity prices. The forecast period was from January 2019 to December 2022. The results indicate that: (i) there are long-term effects of the oil price forecast on the forecasts of the other three prices; (ii) in the short term, the ethanol and gasoline price forecasts were more sensitive to changes in future oil prices than the sugar price forecast; and (iii) the future volatility of the price of sugar is less than the future volatility of the other two prices. These results can assist agents in the sugarcane and energy sectors when making strategic decisions.

Several countries face the challenge of reducing the intermittency of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation due to changes in climatic conditions. Considering that Brazil has continental-scale dimensions and diversified geography, an alternative that allows smoothing the intermittency in solar PV power generation is needed. The novelty of this study lies in the proposal to allocate the production of PV solar energy between the interconnected regions of the country efficiently, forming an optimal portfolio with the highest productivity and the least intermittency. Thus, the regional allocation process for solar generation is formulated through an optimization problem with two objective functions: to increase the country's productivity and simultaneously control the variability of the supply of solar energy. This study concluded that the current planning models for the expansion in Brazil (both centralized and distributed generation) do not consider the variability of incident solar radiation in its five regions; therefore, the formation of the current regional portfolio of investments in power generation from solar PV energy is not efficient.

The consolidation of second generation ethanol will provide a greater amount of ethanol without increasing sugarcane acreage, but two technologies have emerged that use sugarcane bagasse as a feedstock: the generation of bioelectricity and second generation ethanol. As a result, a new discussion has arisen for the future configuration of the sugarcane industry: should bagasse be used to generate bioelectricity or produce second generation ethanol? Due to the high volatility of prices, for both electricity and anhydrous ethanol, the decision is complex, and higher volatility of price is associated with greater risk in this decision. This article presents a bi-objective optimization model to decide efficiently the percentage of the available sugarcane bagasse that should be allocated to each of these options in order to maximize the average return and, at the same time, minimize the risk inherent in price level volatilities. The results for four possible scenarios are presented; it is concluded that the scenario that presents a bioelectricity production cost of US$ 50/MWh and a cost of second generation ethanol production of US$ 0.30/liter has a higher return and lower risk to the investor. In this scenario, the allocation of bagasse for second generation ethanol production is 84%.

Several economies around the world are using second-generation (2G) ethanol produced from agricultural residues, like sugarcane straw and bagasse, as a sustainable solution to replace petroleum products. Since first-generation (1G) ethanol uses the sugars of sugarcane, an integrated 1G–2G production would enable the production of more ethanol from the same amount of sugarcane without leading to increased use of arable land. The ethanol production process is complex, involving different high-energy consumption operations such as evaporation and distillation. The economic competitiveness of this process depends heavily on the amount of thermal and electrical energy produced using sugarcane straw and bagasse as input. Thus, the objective of this study was to use the mean-variance methodology to determine the optimal allocation of residual sugarcane biomass between 2G ethanol and bioelectricity productions, with simultaneous objectives of maximizing the return and minimizing the risk for investors of this sector. In this paper, four scenarios are analyzed. The first one is the base scenario that represents the current state of production costs and investments. scenarios 2, 3, and 4 considered four cuts of 10%, 20%, and 40% in the production cost of ethanol 2G, respectively. The results show the optimum biomass allocations and the growth rates of returns as a function of risk growth. It can be concluded that from scenario 4, the production of 2G ethanol becomes financially advantageous for the investor, presenting greater returns with smaller risks.

In this paper, we examine the winning bids of the biodiesel auctions conducted by the National Regulatory Agency for Oil, Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) in Brazil from 2012 to 2019. The public policy to develop the Brazilian biodiesel market had on the auction a fundamental pillar, providing stability for both suppliers and demanders. During the study period, the auction design had a stable framework of rules, enabling conditions for understanding competitors' behavior by studying their bids. Initially, we present an overview of the state of the art on the biodiesel program in Brazil and highlight the scarcity of published studies on biodiesel auctions. In sequence, we classify the auction according to the economic theory, showing that it fits the multiunit, sequential, first-price English auction design, and we review the specific literature for this auction model. Then, we analyze the database structure and investigate the presence of information asymmetries among bidders, using cumulative probability comparison as well as the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the t-statistic test for means. Results offer strong evidence in favor of information symmetry. Later, we check the hypothesis of common values on the data, applying a parametric test to verify the presence of the winner's curse. Results corroborate the existence of the winner's curse and the common values paradigm, discarding the application of the independent private-values paradigm to the data. Finally, we comment on the possibility of further studies on the topic.

Since the 1997 end of the monopoly on the exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazil, there has been an explosion of activity in this industry. This includes four instances of approved unitization involving Petrobras (owned by the Brazilian government) and another 12 unitization cases being evaluated by ANP, the Brazilian oil industry regulator. In most of these cases, a polarization between private oil/gas companies operating in Brazil and Petrobras was apparent. In addition, unitization is further complicated in this country because three distinct operating regimes are allowed: concession contracts, production sharing agreements, and onerous assignment. This paper evaluates these strategies according to game theory, makes policy recommendations, and also seeks to support the drafting of regulations, suggesting it would be better to aim at exploration/production to promote rapid convergence in unitization.

This article proposes a model that allows thermoelectric power plants to identify the risks and opportunities that exist during the marketing of electricity in “hybrid” markets, where electricity is offered in two types of environments: regulated and free. Because electricity generated in Brazil is predominantly hydraulic, it has adopted a scheme of centralized dispatch through a chain of optimization models, the natural gas thermal power plants enter in a complementary manner, which mitigates operational risk in dry periods. In this article, the value of operational flexibility will be estimated, and a model will be proposed to help thermoelectric power plants with energy-marketing decisions in both regulated and free markets. The results indicate that paying a premium for the availability of generation capacity can significantly stimulate the development of new projects in thermoelectric generation.