Search

Drought is a severe threat, especially in the arid regions of Pakistan, such as the Balochistan Province. The aim of this study is to analyze drought trends in Balochistan using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at the 3-month accumulation timescale. The monthly rainfall data of 10 stations were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for 37 years (1980&ndash, 2017). Drought trends were analyzed at each station using the Mann-Kendall test. The SPI identified extreme drought events in 1996, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2014. Barkhan was the station that most frequently experienced extreme to severe drought events, as defined using SPI. A statistically significant decreasing precipitation trend was found in four stations (Dalbandin, Jiwani, Quetta, and Zhob). The analysis of drought characteristics showed Barkhan faced the most prolonged drought, of 22 months from 1999 to 2001. The findings from the present study can give guidance on how strategies of water management should be adjusted based on the changing patterns of droughts in the Balochistan Province.

In the wake of a rapidly changing climate, droughts have intensified, in both duration and severity, across the globe. The Germanwatch long-term Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 countries most affected by the adverse effects of climate change. Within Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the most vulnerable regions due to recurring prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and dependence on agriculture and livestock for survival. This study aims to explore how the characteristics of droughts have evolved in the region from 1902–2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of a popular drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The region was divided into six zones using Spatial “K”luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method, and run theory was applied to characterize droughts in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test applied to SPEI indicate prevailing significant negative trends (dryer conditions) in all the zones. Balochistan experienced its most severe droughts in the 1960s and around 2000. The effects of climate change are also evident in the fact that all the long duration droughts occurred after 1960. Moreover, the number of droughts identified by 3-month SPEI showed a significant increase after 1960 for all six zones. The same trend was found in the 12-month SPEI but for only three zones.

Pakistan is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change. More specifically, there is concern that climate change may cause longer and severer spells of droughts. To quantify the change in the characteristics of droughts in Pakistan over the years, we have evaluated spatio-temporal trends of droughts in Pakistan over the period 1902&ndash, 2015 using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the Spatial &ldquo, K&rdquo, luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method was employed to regionalize droughts into five contiguous zones. The run theory was then applied to each zone to identify drought events and characterize them in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. Moreover, the Modified Mann&ndash, Kendall trend test was applied to identify statistically significant trends in SPEI and drought characteristics in each zone. It was found that the southern areas of Pakistan, encompassing Sindh and most of Baluchistan, have experienced a decrease in SPEI, indicating a drying trend. Central Pakistan has witnessed a wetting trend as demonstrated by an increase in SPEI over time, whereas no statistically significant trend was observed for the northern areas of Pakistan. On a zonal basis, the longest duration drought to occur in Pakistan lasted 22 months in zone 5 (Sindh) from 1968 to 1970. In addition, the drought of 1920 and 2000 can be said to be the worst drought in the history of the region as it affected all the zones and lasted for more than 10-months in three zones.