1. Model-based evaluation of management options in ornamental plant nurseries
- Author
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Marius Ruett, Cory Whitney, and Eike Luedeling
- Subjects
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Natural resource economics ,020209 energy ,Strategy and Management ,05 social sciences ,Agricultural management ,02 engineering and technology ,Building and Construction ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Value of information ,050501 criminology ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Production (economics) ,Business ,Disease management (health) ,Agricultural productivity ,Hectare ,0505 law ,General Environmental Science ,Decision analysis - Abstract
Agricultural management decisions are usually made without perfect knowledge. Decision Analysis (DA) approaches translate available uncertain information on costs, benefits and risks involved in decisions into actionable management recommendations. We illustrate the use of DA procedures to inform decisions on disease management strategies in ornamental plant production. We worked with heather growers and other stakeholders in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, to model the impacts of changing disease management practices and to generate comprehensive forecasts of net returns. Through sensitivity analysis and Value of Information assessment we identified critical uncertainties regarding the feasibility of improved practices. Partial Farm Budgets for decision options ranged from a loss of more than 200,000 € to a gain of nearly 70,000 € per hectare and year. Findings suggest that reducing pesticide applications without additional monitoring may substantially increase production risks (chance of loss of 76%) and that intensified plant monitoring is likely to increase net benefits (chance of gain of 68%) by allowing earlier detection and more focused fungicide application. Our Decision Analysis approach facilitated ex-ante evaluation of innovative management strategies in heather production, and it holds promise for similar evaluations in other agricultural production systems.
- Published
- 2020
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