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The Larson–Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high-temperature applications; however, poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C often result in sub-optimal performance. In this work, we show that the direct rupture life parameterization without intermediate LMP parameterization, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pearson correlation coefficient >0.9 for 9–12% Cr and >0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Finally, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9–12% Cr ferritic–martensitic alloys and austenitic stainless steel datasets.

The objective of traditional phasor measurement unit (PMU) placement approaches is to find the minimal number of PMUs to achieve full system observability. Very few consider the probability and the consequence severity of observability loss. For example, following cascading failures, lines are tripped, and the topology of the grid changes, which may result in observability loss for parts of the grid. With limited number of PMUs, it is desired that the PMUs should still sustain observability for the power grid after top-severe cascading failures, other than after those cascading failures of low severity. To address the above issues related with the consequence severity of observability loss, this study proposes a risk-oriented PMU placement approach. The proposed approach uses two indices, namely the probability of observability loss and the severity of its corresponding consequence to design the optimal PMU placement strategy. The authors show that the proposed approach is able to capture the critical events, while traditional approaches fail to do so. Extensive simulation results carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed risk-oriented approach.

It is well-known that delays and disruptions that originate at certain airports end up spreading spread on the network to other airports, sometimes straining a large fraction of the system. Hence data-driven modeling of this phenomenon is important from the standpoint of planning and strategy. In this work, utilizing the publicly available data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), we employ the well-known influence maximization paradigm, to mine for the top airports in the US airport network, from the perspective of delay spread. In the process, we develop a diffusion simulator and implement a greedy algorithm to aid our task. We then explore the temporal trends by considering one winter month and one summer month in our analysis. Finally, we characterize the clusters in the US airport network and investigate the patterns of delay spread when airports in each of the clusters are affected.

The Influence Maximization problem has been extensively studied in the past decade because of its practical applications in finding the key influencers in social networks. Due to the hardness of the underlying problem, existing algorithms have tried to trade off practical efficiency with approximation guarantees. Approximate solutions take several hours of compute time on modest sized real world inputs and there is a lack of effective parallel and distributed algorithms to solve this problem. In this paper, we present efficient parallel algorithms for multithreaded and distributed systems to solve the influence maximization with approximation guarantee. Our algorithms extend state-of-the-art sequential approach based on computing reverse reachability sets. We present a detailed experimental evaluation, and analyze their performance and their sensitivity to input parameters, using real world inputs. Our experimental results demonstrate significant speedup on parallel architectures. We further show a speedup of up to 586× relative to the state-of-the-art sequential baseline using 1024 nodes of a supercomputer at far greater accuracy and twice the seed set size. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in parallelizing the influence maximization operation at scale.

Cost-efficient selection and scheduling of a subset of geographically distributed resources to meet the demands of a scientific workflow is a challenging problem. The problem is exacerbated by uncertainties in demand and availability of resources. In this paper, we present a stochastic optimization based framework for robust decision making in the selection of distributed resources over a planning horizon under demand uncertainty. We present a novel two-stage stochastic programming model for resource selection, and implement an L-shaped decomposition algorithm to solve this model. A Sample Average Approximation algorithm is integrated to enable stochastic optimization to solve problems with a large number of scenarios. Using the metric of stochastic solution, we demonstrate up to 30% cost reduction relative to solutions without explicit consideration of demand uncertainty for a 24-month problem. We also demonstrate up to 54% cost reduction relative to a previously developed solution for a 36-month problem. We further argue that the composition of resources selected is superior to solutions computed without explicit consideration of uncertainties. Given the importance of resource selection and scheduling of complex scientific workflows, especially in the context of commercial cloud computing, we believe that our novel stochastic programming framework will benefit many researchers as well as users of distributed computing resources.

The awareness about software vulnerabilities is crucial to ensure effective cybersecurity practices, the development of high-quality software, and, ultimately, national security. This awareness can be better understood by studying the spread, structure and evolution of software vulnerability discussions across online communities. This work is the first to evaluate and contrast how discussions about software vulnerabilities spread on three social platforms-Twitter, GitHub, and Reddit. Moreover, we measure how user-level e.g., bot or not, and content-level characteristics e.g., vulnerability severity, post subjectivity, targeted operating systems as well as social network topology influence the rate of vulnerability discussion spread. To lay the groundwork, we present a novel fundamental framework for measuring information spread in multiple social platforms that identifies spread mechanisms and observables, units of information, and groups of measurements. We then contrast topologies for three social networks and analyze the effect of the network structure on the way discussions about vulnerabilities spread. We measure the scale and speed of the discussion spread to understand how far and how wide they go, how many users participate, and the duration of their spread. To demonstrate the awareness of more impactful vulnerabilities, a subset of our analysis focuses on vulnerabilities targeted during recent major cyber-attacks and those exploited by advanced persistent threat groups. One of our major findings is that most discussions start on GitHub not only before Twitter and Reddit, but even before a vulnerability is officially published. The severity of a vulnerability contributes to how much it spreads, especially on Twitter. Highly severe vulnerabilities have significantly deeper, broader and more viral discussion threads. When analyzing vulnerabilities in software products we found that different flavors of Linux received the highest discussion volume. We also observe that Twitter discussions started by humans have larger size, breadth, depth, adoption rate, lifetime, and structural virality compared to those started by bots. On Reddit, discussion threads of positive posts are larger, wider, and deeper than negative or neutral posts. We also found that all three networks have high modularity that encourages spread. However, the spread on GitHub is different from other networks, because GitHub is more dense, has stronger community structure and assortativity that enhances information diffusion. We anticipate the results of our analysis to not only increase the understanding of software vulnerability awareness but also inform the existing and new analytical frameworks for simulating information spread e.g., disinformation across multiple social environments online.

Scheduling of complex scientific workflows on geographically distributed resources is a challenging problem. Selection and scheduling of a subset of available resources to meet a given demand in a cost efficient manner is the first step of this complex process. In this paper, we develop a method to compute cost-efficient selection and scheduling of resources under demand uncertainties. Building on the techniques of Sample Average Approximation and Genetic Algorithms, we demonstrate that our method can lead up to \(24\%\) improvement in costs when demand uncertainties are explicitly considered. We present the results from our preliminary work in the context of a high energy physics application, the Belle II experiments, and believe that the work will equally benefit other scientific workflows executed on distributed resources with demand uncertainties. The proposed method can also be extended to include uncertainties related to resource availability and network performance.

Property graphs can be used to represent heterogeneous networks with labeled (attributed) vertices and edges. Given a property graph, simulating another graph with same or greater size with the same statistical properties with respect to the labels and connectivity is critical for privacy preservation and benchmarking purposes. In this work we tackle the problem of capturing the statistical dependence of the edge connectivity on the vertex labels and using the same distribution to regenerate property graphs of the same or expanded size in a scalable manner. However, accurate simulation becomes a challenge when the attributes do not completely explain the network structure. We propose the Property Graph Model (PGM) approach that uses a label augmentation strategy to mitigate the problem and preserve the vertex label and the edge connectivity distributions as well as their correlation, while also replicating the degree distribution. Our proposed algorithm is scalable with a linear complexity in the number of edges in the target graph. We illustrate the efficacy of the PGM approach in regenerating and expanding the datasets by leveraging two distinct illustrations. Our open-source implementation is available on GitHub., Comment: Published in CIKM 2017

Computing the set of influential nodes of a given size, which when activated will ensure maximal spread of influence on a complex network, is a challenging problem impacting multiple applications. A rigorous approach to influence maximization involves utilization of optimization routines that come with a high computational cost. In this work, we propose to exploit the existence of communities in complex networks to accelerate the mining of influential seeds. We provide intuitive reasoning to explain why our approach should be able to provide speedups without significantly degrading the extent of the spread of influence when compared to the case of influence maximization without using the community information. Additionally, we have parallelized the complete workflow by leveraging an existing parallel implementation of the Louvain community detection algorithm. We then conduct a series of experiments on a dataset with three representative graphs to first verify our implementation and then demonstrate the speedups. Our method achieves speedups ranging from 3x to 28x for graphs with small number of communities while nearly matching or even exceeding the activation performance on the entire graph. Complexity analysis reveals that dramatic speedups are possible for larger graphs that contain a correspondingly larger number of communities. In addition to the speedups obtained from the utilization of the community structure, scalability results show up to 6.3x speedup on 20 cores relative to the baseline run on 2 cores. Finally, current limitations of the approach are outlined along with the planned next steps.

In many complex networked systems such as online social networks, at any given time, activity originates at certain nodes and subsequently spreads on the network through influence. Under such scenarios, influencer mining does not involve explicit seeding as in the case of viral marketing. Being an influencer necessitates creating content and disseminating the same to active followers who can then spread the same on the network. In this work, we present a simple probabilistic formulation that models such self-evolving systems where information diffusion occurs primarily because of the intrinsic activity of users and the spread of activity occurs due to influence. We provide an algorithm to mine for the influential seeds in such a scenario by modifying the well-known influence maximization framework with the independent cascade diffusion model. A small example is provided to illustrate how the incorporation of intrinsic and influenced activation mechanisms help us better model the influence dynamics in social networks. Following that, for a larger dataset, we compare the lists of influential users identified by the given formulation with a computationally efficient centrality metric derived from a linear probabilistic model that incorporates self activation.