Search

AimThe global Red List (RL) from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature is the most comprehensive global quantification of extinction risk, and widely used in applied conservation as well as in biogeographic and ecological research. Yet, due to the time- consuming assessment process, the RL is biased taxonomically and geographically, which limits its application on large scales, in particular for understudied areas such as the tropics, or understudied taxa, such as most plants and invertebrates. Here we present IUCNN, an R- package implementing deep learning models to predict species RL status from publicly available geographic occurrence records (and other traits if available).InnovationWe implement a user-friendly workflow to train and validate neural network models, and subsequently use them to predict species RL status. IUCNN contains functions to address specific issues related to the RL framework, including a regression-based approach to account for the ordinal nature of RL categories and class imbalance in the training data, a Bayesian approach for improved uncertainty quantification, and a target accuracy threshold approach that limits predictions to only those species whose RL status can be predicted with high confidence. Most analyses can be run with few lines of code, without prior knowledge of neural network models. We demonstrate the use of IUCNN on an empirical dataset of ∼14,000 orchid species, for which IUCNN models can predict extinction risk within minutes, while outperforming comparable methods.Main conclusionsIUCNN harnesses innovative methodology to estimate the RL status of large numbers of species. By providing estimates of the number and identity of threatened species in custom geographic or taxonomic datasets, IUCNN enables large-scale analyses on the extinction risk of species so far not well represented on the official RL.

The birth of modern rainforestsThe origin of modern rainforests can be traced to the aftermath of the bolide impact at the end of the Cretaceous. Carvalhoet al.used fossilized pollen and leaves to characterize the changes that took place in northern South American forests at this time (see the Perspective by Jacobs and Currano). They not only found changes in species composition but were also able to infer changes in forest structure. Extinctions were widespread, especially among gymnosperms. Angiosperm taxa came to dominate the forests over the 6 million years of recovery, when the flora began to resemble that of modern lowland neotropical forest. The leaf data also imply that the forest canopy evolved from relatively open to closed and layered, leading to increased vertical stratification and a greater diversity of plant growth forms.Science, this issue p.63; see also p.28

The ongoing environmental crisis poses an urgent need to forecast the who, where and when of future species extinctions, as such information is crucial for targeting conservation efforts. Commonly, such forecasts are made based on conservation status assessments produced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, when researchers apply these IUCN conservation status data for predicting future extinctions, important information is often omitted, which can impact the accuracy of these predictions. Here we present a new approach and a software for simulating future extinctions based on IUCN conservation status information, which incorporates generation length information of individual species when modeling extinction risks. Additionally, we explicitly model future changes in conservation status for each species, based on status transition rates that we estimate from the IUCN assessment history of the last decades. Finally, we apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate extinction rates for each species, based on the simulated future extinctions. These estimates inherently incorporate the chances of conservation status changes and the generation length for each given species and are specific to the simulated time frame. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by estimating future extinction rates for all bird species. Our average extinction rate estimate for the next 100 yr across all birds is 6.98 x 10(-4) extinctions per species-year, and we predict an expected biodiversity loss of between 669 and 738 bird species within that time frame. Further, the rate estimates between species sharing the same IUCN status show larger variation than the rates estimated with alternative approaches, which reflects expected differences in extinction risk among taxa of the same conservation status. Our method demonstrates the utility of applying species-specific information to the estimation of extinction rates, rather than assuming equal extinction risks for species assigned to the same conservation status.

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.Evaluación Automatizada de la Conservación de la Familia Orchidaceae mediante Aprendizaje Profundo Resumen Los análisis de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) son esenciales para la priorización de las necesidades de conservación, pero requieren de muchos recursos y por lo tanto están disponibles sólo para una fracción de la riqueza mundial de especies. Las evaluaciones automatizadas de la conservación basadas en los registros disponibles de presencia geográfica pueden ser una alternativa rápida pero no está claro cuán confiables son estas evaluaciones. Realizamos evaluaciones automatizadas de la conservación para 13,910 especies (47.3% de las especies conocidas de la familia) de la diversa y mundialmente distribuida familia de las orquídeas (Orchidaceae), en la cual la mayoría de las especies (13,049) no tenían una valoración previa por parte de la UICN. Usamos un método novedoso basado en una red neural profunda (IUC-NN). Identificamos 4,342 especies de orquídeas (31.2% de las especies evaluadas) como posiblemente amenazadas por la extinción (equivalente a las categorías de la UICN en peligro crítico [CR], en peligro [EN] o vulnerable [VU]) y a Madagascar, África Occidental, el sudeste de Asia y varias islas oceánicas como áreas prioritarias para la conservación de orquídeas. La familia Orchidaceae proporcionó un modelo con el cual probar la sensibilidad de los métodos de evaluación automatizada ante problemas con la disponibilidad de datos, la calidad de los datos y los sesgos de muestreo geográfico. La IUC-NN identificó posibles especies amenazadas con una certeza de 84.3% con un sesgo de evaluación geográfica significativamente más bajo en relación con la Lista Roja de la UICN y mostró solidez incluso cuando la disponibilidad de datos fue baja y hubo errores geográficos en los datos de entrada. En general, nuestros resultados demostraron que las evaluaciones automatizadas tienen un papel importante que desempeñar en la identificación de especies con mayor riesgo de extinción.

Significance The biological interchange between North and South America associated with the formation of the Isthmus of Panama is key to defining current gradients of species diversity. A major gap in our understanding of the interchange is its asymmetry, where mammals of North American origin attained higher diversity in South America than vice versa. The prevailing view is that this asymmetry resulted from higher origination of immigrant mammals in South America. In contrast, we find that asymmetry results from high extinction of native mammals in South America, which reduced the diversity of native mammals available to disperse northwards. These results shed light on the legacy of the biotic interchange to understand the current patterns of species diversity across the Americas., The interchange between the previously disconnected faunas of North and South America was a massive experiment in biological invasion. A major gap in our understanding of this invasion is why there was a drastic increase in the proportion of mammals of North American origin found in South America. Four nonmutually exclusive mechanisms may explain this asymmetry: 1) Higher dispersal rate of North American mammals toward the south, 2) higher origination of North American immigrants in South America, 3) higher extinction of mammals with South American origin, and 4) similar dispersal rate but a larger pool of native taxa in North versus South America. We test among these mechanisms by analyzing ∼20,000 fossil occurrences with Bayesian methods to infer dispersal and diversification rates and taxonomic selectivity of immigrants. We find no differences in the dispersal and origination rates of immigrants. In contrast, native South American mammals show higher extinction. We also find that two clades with North American origin (Carnivora and Artiodactyla) had significantly more immigrants in South America than other clades. Altogether, the asymmetry of the interchange was not due to higher origination of immigrants in South America as previously suggested, but resulted from higher extinction of native taxa in southern South America. These results from one of the greatest biological invasions highlight how biogeographic processes and biotic interactions can shape continental diversity.

The insect order Hymenoptera originated during the Permian nearly 300 Mya. Ancestrally herbivorous hymenopteran lineages today make up the paraphyletic suborder ‘Symphyta’, which encompasses c. 8200 species with very diverse host-plant associations. We use phylogeny-based statistical analyses to explore the drivers of diversity dynamics within the ‘Symphyta’, with a particular focus on the hypothesis that diversification of herbivorous insects has been driven by the explosive radiation of angiosperms during and after the Cretaceous. Our ancestral-state estimates reveal that the first symphytans fed on gymnosperms, and that shifts onto angiosperms and pteridophytes – and back – have occurred at different time intervals in different groups. Trait-dependent analyses indicate that average net diversification rates do not differ between symphytan lineages feeding on angiosperms, gymnosperms or pteridophytes, but trait-independent models show that the highest diversification rates are found in a few angiosperm-feeding lineages that may have been favoured by the radiations of their host taxa during the Cenozoic. Intriguingly, lineages-through-time plots show signs of an early Cretaceous mass extinction, with a recovery starting first in angiosperm-associated clades. Hence, the oft-invoked assumption of herbivore diversification driven by the rise of flowering plants may overlook a Cretaceous global turnover in insect herbivore communities during the rapid displacement of gymnosperm- and pteridophyte-dominated floras by angiosperms.

Flowering plants (angiosperms) are the most diverse of all land plants, becoming abundant in the Cretaceous and achieving dominance in the Cenozoic. However, the exact timing of their origin remains a controversial topic, with molecular clocks generally placing their origin much further back in time than the oldest unequivocal fossils. To resolve this discrepancy, we developed a Bayesian method to estimate the ages of angiosperm families on the basis of the fossil record (a newly compiled dataset of ~15,000 occurrences in 198 families) and their living diversity. Our results indicate that several families originated in the Jurassic, strongly rejecting a Cretaceous origin for the group. We report a marked increase in lineage accumulation from 125 to 72 million years ago, supporting Darwin’s hypothesis of a rapid Cretaceous angiosperm diversification. Our results demonstrate that a pre-Cretaceous origin of angiosperms is supported not only by molecular clock approaches but also by analyses of the fossil record that explicitly correct for incomplete sampling. Using a novel Bayesian method, the authors infer a pre-Cretaceous origin for multiple angiosperm families on the basis of their fossil record and present-day diversity.

raxmlGUI is a graphical user interface to RAxML, one of the most popular and widely used softwares for phylogenetic inference using maximum likelihood. Here we present raxmlGUI 2.0, a complete rewrite of the GUI which seamlessly integrates RAxML binaries for all major operating systems with an intuitive graphical front-end to setup and run phylogenetic analyses. Our program offers automated pipelines for analyses that require multiple successive calls of RAxML, built-in functions to concatenate alignment files while automatically specifying the appropriate partition settings, and one-click model testing to select the best substitution models using ModelTest-NG. In addition to RAxML 8.x, raxmlGUI 2.0 also supports the new RAxML-NG, which provides new functionality and higher performance on large datasets. raxmlGUI 2.0 facilitates phylogenetic analyses by coupling an intuitive interface with the unmatched performance of RAxML.

International audience; Competition among species and entire clades can impact species diversification and extinction, which can shape macroevolutionary patterns. The fossil record shows successive biotic turnovers such that a dominant group is replaced by another. One striking example involves the decline of gymnosperms and the rapid diversification and ecological dominance of angiosperms in the Cretaceous. It is generally believed that angiosperms outcompeted gymnosperms, but the macroevolutionary processes and alternative drivers explaining this pattern remain elusive. Using extant time trees and vetted fossil occurrences for conifers, we tested the hypotheses that clade competition or climate change led to the decline of conifers at the expense of angiosperms. Here, we find that both fossil and molecular data show high congruence in revealing 1) low diversification rates, punctuated by speciation pulses, during warming events throughout the Phanerozoic and 2) that conifer extinction increased significantly in the Mid-Cretaceous (100 to 110 Ma) and remained high ever since. Their extinction rates are best explained by the rise of angiosperms, rejecting alternative models based on either climate change or time alone. Our results support the hypothesis of an active clade replacement, implying that direct competition with angiosperms increased the extinction of conifers by pushing their remaining species diversity and dominance out of the warm tropics. This study illustrates how entire branches on the Tree of Life may actively compete for ecological dominance under changing climates.

Geo-referenced species occurrences from public databases have become essential to biodiversity research and conservation. However, geographical biases are widely recognized as a factor limiting the usefulness of such data for understanding species diversity and distribution. In particular, differences in sampling intensity across a landscape due to differences in human accessibility are ubiquitous but may differ in strength among taxonomic groups and datasets. Although several factors have been described to influence human access (such as presence of roads, rivers, airports and cities), quantifying their specific and combined effects on recorded occurrence data remains challenging. Here we present sampbias, an algorithm and software for quantifying the effect of accessibility biases in species occurrence datasets. Sampbias uses a Bayesian approach to estimate how sampling rates vary as a function of proximity to one or multiple bias factors. The results are comparable among bias factors and datasets. We demonstrate the use of sampbias on a dataset of mammal occurrences from the island of Borneo, showing a high biasing effect of cities and a moderate effect of roads and airports. Sampbias is implemented as a well-documented, open-access and user-friendly R package that we hope will become a standard tool for anyone working with species occurrences in ecology, evolution, conservation and related fields.

Patterns of molecular coevolution can reveal structural and functional constraints within or among organic molecules. These patterns are better understood when considering the underlying evolutionary process, which enables us to disentangle the signal of the dependent evolution of sites (coevolution) from the effects of shared ancestry of genes. Conversely, disregarding the dependent evolution of sites when studying the history of genes negatively impacts the accuracy of the inferred phylogenetic trees. Although molecular coevolution and phylogenetic history are interdependent, analyses of the two processes are conducted separately, a choice dictated by computational convenience, but at the expense of accuracy. We present a Bayesian method and associated software to infer how many and which sites of an alignment evolve according to an independent or a pairwise dependent evolutionary process, and to simultaneously estimate the phylogenetic relationships among sequences. We validate our method on synthetic datasets and challenge our predictions of coevolution on the 16S rRNA molecule by comparing them with its known molecular structure. Finally, we assess the accuracy of phylogenetic trees inferred under the assumption of independence among sites using synthetic datasets, the 16S rRNA molecule and 10 additional alignments of protein-coding genes of eukaryotes. Our results demonstrate that inferring phylogenetic trees while accounting for dependent site evolution significantly impacts the estimates of the phylogeny and the evolutionary process.

Species occurrence records from online databases are an indispensable resource in ecological, biogeographical and palaeontological research. However, issues with data quality, especially incorrect geo-referencing or dating, can diminish their usefulness. Manual cleaning is time-consuming, error prone, difficult to reproduce and limited to known geographical areas and taxonomic groups, making it impractical for datasets with thousands or millions of records. Here, we present CoordinateCleaner, an r-package to scan datasets of species occurrence records for geo-referencing and dating imprecisions and data entry errors in a standardized and reproducible way. CoordinateCleaner is tailored to problems common in biological and palaeontological databases and can handle datasets with millions of records. The software includes (a) functions to flag potentially problematic coordinate records based on geographical gazetteers, (b) a global database of 9,691 geo-referenced biodiversity institutions to identify records that are likely from horticulture or captivity, (c) novel algorithms to identify datasets with rasterized data, conversion errors and strong decimal rounding and (d) spatio-temporal tests for fossils. We describe the individual functions available in CoordinateCleaner and demonstrate them on more than 90 million occurrences of flowering plants from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and 19,000 fossil occurrences from the Palaeobiology Database (PBDB). We find that in GBIF more than 3.4 million records (3.7%) are potentially problematic and that 179 of the tested contributing datasets (18.5%) might be biased by rasterized coordinates. In PBDB, 1205 records (6.3%) are potentially problematic. All cleaning functions and the biodiversity institution database are open-source and available within the CoordinateCleaner r-package.

Threatened marine megafauna have larger-than-expected contributions to functional diversity; a new index identifies key species., Marine megafauna, the largest animals in the oceans, serve key roles in ecosystem functioning. Yet, one-third of these animals are at risk of extinction. To better understand the potential consequences of megafaunal loss, here we quantify their current functional diversity, predict future changes under different extinction scenarios, and introduce a new metric [functionally unique, specialized and endangered (FUSE)] that identifies threatened species of particular importance for functional diversity. Simulated extinction scenarios forecast marked declines in functional richness if current trajectories are maintained during the next century (11% globally; up to 24% regionally), with more marked reductions (48% globally; up to 70% at the poles) beyond random expectations if all threatened species eventually go extinct. Among the megafaunal groups, sharks will incur a disproportionate loss of functional richness. We identify top FUSE species and suggest a renewed focus on these species to preserve the ecosystem functions provided by marine megafauna.

Measuring the pace at which speciation and extinction occur is fundamental to understanding the origin and evolution of biodiversity. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies of living species can provide independent estimates of speciation and extinction rates, but often produce strikingly divergent results. Despite its implications, the theoretical reasons for this discrepancy remain unknown. Here, we reveal a conceptual and methodological basis able to reconcile palaeontological and molecular evidence: discrepancies are driven by different implicit assumptions about the processes of speciation and species evolution in palaeontological and neontological analyses. We present the “birth-death chronospecies” model that clarifies the definition of speciation and extinction processes allowing for a coherent joint analysis of fossil and phylogenetic data. Using simulations and empirical analyses we demonstrate not only that this model explains much of the apparent incongruence between fossils and phylogenies, but that differences in rate estimates are actually informative about the prevalence of different speciation modes., Nature Communications, 9, ISSN:2041-1723

Saber-toothed cats were armed with formidable weapons. They evolved a number of highly derived morphological features, most notably a pair of extremely long upper canines, which makes them unique within the felid family. Although the sabertooth character evolved several times among carnivorous mammals, sabertooth clades mostly had disjunctive occurrences both in space and time, and no sabertooth is alive today. We studied the rates of phenotypic and taxonomic diversification in the mandible of sabertooths, as compared to the rates calculated for both extinct and extant conical toothed cats. We found that the mandible's shape and physical properties in sabertooth clades evolved at distinctly higher rates than the rest of the felid tree. In addition, sabertooths had similar speciation rate to conical toothed cats, but statistically higher extinction rate. The wealth of morphological specializations required to be a sabertooth, and their tendency to focus on large-sized species as prey, was likely responsible for such high extinction rate, and for the peculiar, disjunctive patterns of sabertooth clade occurrence in the fossil record. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.

Linking pattern to process across spatial and temporal scales has been a key goal of the field of biogeography. In January 2017, the 8th biennial conference of the International Biogeography Society sponsored a symposium on Building up biogeography—process to pattern that aimed to review progress towards this goal. Here we present a summary of the symposium, in which we identified promising areas of current research and suggested future research directions. We focus on (1) emerging types of data such as behavioural observations and ancient DNA, (2) how to better incorporate historical data (such as fossils) to move beyond what we term “footprint measures” of past dynamics and (3) the role that novel modelling approaches (e.g. maximum entropy theory of ecology and approximate Bayesian computation) and conceptual frameworks can play in the unification of disciplines. We suggest that the gaps separating pattern and process are shrinking, and that we can better bridge these aspects by considering the dimensions of space and time simultaneously.

Combining palaeontological and neontological data offers a unique opportunity to investigate the relative roles of biotic and abiotic controls of species diversification, and the importance of origination versus extinction in driving evolutionary dynamics. Ferns comprise a major terrestrial plant radiation with an extensive evolutionary history providing a wealth of modern and fossil data for modelling environmental drivers of diversification. Here we develop a novel Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate correlations between diversification dynamics and multiple environmental trajectories. We estimate the impact of different factors on fern diversification over the past 400 million years by analysing a comprehensive dataset of fossil occurrences and complement these findings by analysing a large molecular phylogeny. We show that origination and extinction rates are governed by fundamentally different processes: originations depend on within-group diversity but are largely unaffected by environmental changes, whereas extinctions are strongly affected by external factors such as climate and geology. Our results indicate that the prime driver of fern diversity dynamics is environmentally driven extinction, with origination being an opportunistic response to diminishing ecospace occupancy.

A longstanding debate in evolutionary biology and paleontology is whether ecological interactions such as competition impose diversity dependence on speciation and extinction rates. Here, we analyze the fossil record of terrestrial mammalian carnivores in North America and Eurasia using a Bayesian framework to assess whether their diversity dynamics were affected by diversity dependence within and between families (12 in Eurasia, 10 in North America). We found eight instances of within-clade diversity dependence suppressing speciation rates and detected between-clade effects increasing extinction rates in six instances. Diversity dependence often involved lineages that migrated between continents and we found that speciation was more responsive to diversity changes within the clade, whereas extinction responded to diversity of taxa in other clades. The analysis of the fossil record of Carnivora suggests that interactions within and between clades are associated with different speciation and extinction regimes, opening room for a broader theory of diversity dependence.

Background and Aims The tremendously unbalanced distribution of species richness across clades in the tree of life is often interpreted as the result of variation in the rates of diversification, which may themselves respond to trait evolution. Even though this is likely a widespread pattern, not all diverse groups of organisms exhibit heterogeneity in their dynamics of diversification. Testing and characterizing the processes driving the evolution of clades with steady rates of diversification over long periods of time are of importance in order to have a full understanding of the build-up of biodiversity through time. Methods We studied the macroevolutionary history of the species-rich tree fern family Cyatheaceae and inferred a time-calibrated phylogeny of the family including extinct and extant species using the recently developed fossilized birth–death method. We tested whether the high diversity of Cyatheaceae is the result of episodes of rapid diversification associated with phenotypic and ecological differentiation or driven by stable but low rates of diversification. We compared the rates of diversification across clades, modelled the evolution of body size and climatic preferences and tested for trait-dependent diversification. Key Results This ancient group diversified at a low and constant rate during its long evolutionary history. Morphological and climatic niche evolution were found to be overall highly conserved, although we detected several shifts in the rates of evolution of climatic preferences, linked to changes in elevation. The diversification of the family occurred gradually, within limited phenotypic and ecological boundaries, and yet resulted in a remarkable species richness. Conclusions Our study indicates that Cyatheaceae is a diverse clade which slowly accumulated morphological, ecological and taxonomic diversity over a long evolutionary period and provides a compelling example of the tropics as a museum of biodiversity.

One of the most remarkable aspects of our species is that while we show surprisingly little genetic diversity, we demonstrate astonishing amounts of cultural diversity. Perhaps most impressive is the diversity of our technologies, broadly defined as all the physical objects we produce and the skills we use to produce them. Despite considerable focus on the evolution of technology by social scientists and philosophers, there have been few attempts to systematically quantify technological diversity, and therefore the dynamics of technological change remain poorly understood. Here we show a novel Bayesian model for examining technological diversification adopted from palaeontological analysis of occurrence data. We use this framework to estimate the tempo of diversification in American car and truck models produced between 1896 and 2014, and to test the relative importance of competition and extrinsic factors in shaping changes in macro-evolutionary rates. Our results identify a four-fold decrease in the origination and extinction rates of car models, and a negative net diversification rate over the last 30 years. We also demonstrate that competition played a more significant role in car model diversification than either changes in oil prices or gross domestic product. Together our analyses provide a set of tools that can enhance current research on technological and cultural evolution by providing a flexible and quantitative framework for exploring the dynamics of diversification.

International audience; Species interactions lie at the heart of many theories of macroevolution, from adaptive radiation to the Red Queen. Although some theories describe the imprint that interactions will have over long timescales, we are still missing a comprehensive understanding of the effects of interactions on macroevolution. Current research shows strong evidence for the impact of interactions on macroevolutionary patterns of trait evolution and diversification, yet many macroevolutionary studies have only a tenuous relationship to ecological studies of interactions over shorter timescales. We review current research in this area, highlighting approaches that explicitly model species interactions and connect them to broad-scale macroevolutionary patterns. We also suggest that progress has been made by taking an integrative interdisciplinary look at individual clades. We focus on African cichlids as a case study of how this approach can be fruitful. Overall, although the evidence for species interactions shaping macroevolution is strong, further work using integrative and model-based approaches is needed to spur progress towards understanding the complex dynamics that structure communities over time and space.

New World Monkeys (NWM) (platyrrhines) are one of the most diverse groups of primates, occupying today a wide range of ecosystems in the American tropics and exhibiting large variations in ecology, morphology, and behavior. Although the relationships among the almost 200 living species are relatively well understood, we lack robust estimates of the timing of origin, ancestral morphology, and geographic range evolution of the clade. Herein, we integrate paleontological and molecular evidence to assess the evolutionary dynamics of extinct and extant platyrrhines. We develop novel analytical frameworks to infer the evolution of body mass, changes in latitudinal ranges through time, and species diversification rates using a phylogenetic tree of living and fossil taxa. Our results show that platyrrhines originated 5-10 million years earlier than previously assumed, dating back to the Middle Eocene. The estimated ancestral platyrrhine was small-weighing 0.4 kg-and matched the size of their presumed African ancestors. As the three platyrrhine families diverged, we recover a rapid change in body mass range. During the Miocene Climatic Optimum, fossil diversity peaked and platyrrhines reached their widest latitudinal range, expanding as far South as Patagonia, favored by warm and humid climate and the lower elevation of the Andes. Finally, global cooling and aridification after the middle Miocene triggered a geographic contraction of NWM and increased their extinction rates. These results unveil the full evolutionary trajectory of an iconic and ecologically important radiation of monkeys and showcase the necessity of integrating fossil and molecular data for reliably estimating evolutionary rates and trends. Fil: Silvestro, Daniele. University Goteborg; Suecia. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza. Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Center; Suecia. Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Suiza Fil: Tejedor, Marcelo Fabian. University Goteborg; Suecia. Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Center; Suecia. Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Suiza. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto Patagónico de Geología y Paleontología; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco"; Argentina Fil: Serrano Serrano, Martha L.. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Loiseau, Oriane. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza. Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Suiza Fil: Rossier, Victor. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza. Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Suiza Fil: Rolland, Jonathan. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza. University of British Columbia; Canadá Fil: Zizka, Alexander. University Goteborg; Suecia. Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Center; Suecia Fil: Höhna, Sebastian. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania Fil: Antonelli, Alexandre. University Goteborg; Suecia. Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Center; Suecia. Harvard University; Estados Unidos. Gothenburg Botanical Garden; Suecia Fil: Salamin, Nicolas. Universite de Lausanne; Suiza. Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Suiza

The outstanding biodiversity found in the American tropics (the Neotropics ) has attracted the attention of naturalists for centuries. Despite major advances in the generation of biodiversity data, many questions remain to be answered. In this review, we first summarize some of the knowns and unknowns about Neotropical biodiversity, and discuss how human impact may have drastically affected some of the patterns o bserved today. We then link biodiversity to landscape, and outline major advances in biogeographical research. In particular, we argue that it is crucial to test the effect of landscape and climatic evolution to biotic diversification and distribution in o rder to achieve a comprehensive understanding of current patterns. In this context, it is also important to consider extant and extinct taxa, as well as to use probabilistic and parametric methods that explicitly include landscape evolution models. We subs equently explore different scales in Neotropical biogeography, focusing on the intersection between biogeography and community ecology, both of which often address similar questions from different angles. The concepts of community assembly, island biogeogr aphy, neutral processes, and ecological interactions are then discussed as important components of the complex processes that determine the patterns observed today. Single - taxon and cross - taxonomic studies are complementary and greatly needed, but achievin g synthesis remains challenging. Finally, w e argue that phylogenetic approaches hold great potential to connect across taxonomic, spatial and temporal scales, despite current difficulties to generate and cross - analyze large volumes of molecular data. We co nclude by outlining major prospects and hindrances for further advancing our knowledge on the rich Neotropical biodiversity

The Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K–Pg) episode is an iconic mass extinction, in which the diversity of numerous clades abruptly declined. However, the responses of individual clades to mass extinctions may be more idiosyncratic than previously understood. Here, we examine the diversification dynamics of the three major mammalian clades in North America across the K–Pg. Our results show that these clades responded in dramatically contrasting ways to the K–Pg event. Metatherians underwent a sudden rise in extinction rates shortly after the K–Pg, whereas declining origination rates first halted diversification and later drove the loss of diversity in multituberculates. Eutherians experienced high taxonomic turnover near the boundary, with peaks in both origination and extinction rates. These findings indicate that the effects of geological episodes on diversity are context dependent and that mass extinctions can affect the diversification of clades by independently altering the extinction regime, the origination regime or both.

The exceptional increase in molecular DNA sequence data in open repositories is mirrored by an ever-growing interest among evolutionary biologists to harvest and use those data for phylogenetic inference. Many quality issues, however, are known and the sheer amount and complexity of data available can pose considerable barriers to their usefulness. A key issue in this domain is the high frequency of sequence mislabelling encountered when searching for suitable sequences for phylogenetic analysis. These issues include the incorrect identification of sequenced species, non-standardised and ambiguous sequence annotation, and the inadvertent addition of paralogous sequences by users, among others. Taken together, these issues likely add considerable noise, error or bias to phylogenetic inference, a risk that is likely to increase with the size of phylogenies or the molecular datasets used to generate them. Here we present a software package, phylotaR, that bypasses the above issues by using instead an alignment search tool to identify orthologous sequences. Our package builds on the framework of its predecessor, PhyLoTa, by providing a modular pipeline for identifying overlapping sequence clusters using up-to-date GenBank data and providing new features, improvements and tools. We demonstrate our pipeline’s effectiveness by presenting trees generated from phylotaR clusters for two large taxonomic clades: palms and primates. Given the versatility of this package, we hope that it will become a standard tool for any research aiming to use GenBank data for phylogenetic analysis.

The estimation of origination and extinction rates and their temporal variation is central to understanding diversity patterns and the evolutionary history of clades. The fossil record provides the only direct evidence of extinction and biodiversity changes through time and has long been used to infer the dynamics of diversity changes in deep time. The software PyRate implements a Bayesian framework to analyze fossil occurrence data to estimate the rates of preservation, origination, and extinction while incorporating several sources of uncertainty. Building upon this framework, we present a suite of methodological advances including more complex and realistic models of preservation and the first likelihood-based test to compare the fit across different models. Further, we develop a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate origination and extinction rates and their temporal variation, which provides more reliable results and includes an explicit estimation of the number and temporal placement of statistically significant rate changes. Finally, we implement a new C++ library that speeds up the analyses by orders of magnitude, therefore facilitating the application of the PyRate methods to large data sets. We demonstrate the new functionalities through extensive simulations and with the analysis of a large data set of Cenozoic marine mammals. We compare our analytical framework against two widely used alternative methods to infer origination and extinction rates, revealing that PyRate decisively outperforms them across a range of simulated data sets. Our analyses indicate that explicit statistical model testing, which is often neglected in fossil-based macroevolutionary analyses, is crucial to obtain accurate and robust results.

The evolution of organisms is crucially dependent on the evolution of intraspecific variation. Its interactions with selective agents in the biotic and abiotic environments underlie many processes, such as intraspecific competition, resource partitioning and, eventually, species formation. Nevertheless, comparative models of trait evolution neither allow explicit testing of hypotheses related to the evolution of intraspecific variation nor do they simultaneously estimate rates of trait evolution by accounting for both trait mean and variance. Here, we present a model of phenotypic trait evolution using a hierarchical Bayesian approach that simultaneously incorporates interspecific and intraspecific variation. We assume that species-specific trait means evolve under a simple Brownian motion process, whereas species-specific trait variances are modeled with Brownian or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. After evaluating the power of the method through simulations, we examine whether life-history traits impact evolution of intraspecific variation in the Eriogonoideae (buckwheat family, Polygonaceae). Our model is readily extendible to more complex scenarios of the evolution of inter- and intraspecific variation and presents a step toward more comprehensive comparative models for macroevolutionary studies.

The difference between rapid morphological evolutionary changes observed in populations and the long periods of stasis detected in the fossil record has raised a decade-long debate about the exact role played by intraspecific mechanisms at the interspecific level. Although they represent different scales of the same evolutionary process, micro- and macroevolution are rarely studied together and few empirical studies have compared the rates of evolution and the selective pressures between both scales. Here, we analyse morphological, genetic and ecological traits in clownfishes at different evolutionary scales and demonstrate that the tempo of molecular and morphological evolution at the species level can be, to some extent, predicted from parameters estimated below the species level, such as the effective population size or the rate of evolution within populations. We also show that similar codons in the gene of the rhodopsinRH1, a light-sensitive receptor protein, are under positive selection at the intra and interspecific scales, suggesting that similar selective pressures are acting at both levels.

New World monkeys (parvorder Platyrrhini) are one of the most diverse groups of primates, occupying today a wide range of ecosystems in the American tropics and exhibiting large variations in ecology, morphology, and behavior. Although the relationships among the almost 200 living species are relatively well understood, we lack robust estimates of the timing of origin, the ancestral morphology, and the evolution of the distribution of the clade. Here we integrate paleontological and molecular evidence to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of extinct and extant platyrrhines. We develop an analytical framework to infer ancestral states, the evolution of body mass, and changes in latitudinal ranges through time. Our results show that extant platyrrhines originated some 5–10 million years earlier than previously assumed, likely dating back to the Middle Eocene (∼ 43 million years ago, Ma). The estimated ancestral platyrrhine was strikingly small – weighing ∼ 0.4 kg, as compared to the largest modern species over 10 kg – matching the size of their presumed Eocene North African ancestors. Small-sized callitrichines (marmosets and tamarins) retained a small body mass throughout their evolutionary history, thus challenging the hypothesis of phyletic dwarfism as an explanation to their adaptive traits. In contrast, a rapid change in body mass range took place as the three families diverged between the Late Oligocene and the Early Miocene. That period also marks a peak in diversity of fossil platyrrhines and is associated with their widest latitudinal range, expanding as far to the South as Patagonia. This geographic expansion is temporally coincident with a significant increase in platyrrhine population size inferred from genomic data, and with warm and humid climatic conditions linked to the Miocene Climatic Optimum and the lower elevation of the Andes. These results unveil the early evolution of an iconic group of monkeys and showcase the advantages of integrating fossil and molecular data for estimating evolutionary rates and trends.

Understanding the mechanisms by which the abiotic and biotic requirements of species, or ecological niches, change over time is a central issue in evolutionary biology. Niche evolution is poorly understood at both the macroecological and macroevolutionary scales, as niches can shift over short periods of time but appear to change more slowly over longer timescales. Although reconstructing past niches has always been a major concern for palaeontologists and evolutionary biologists, only a few recent studies have successfully determined the factors that affect niche evolution. Here, we compare the evolution of climatic niches in four main groups of terrestrial vertebrates using a modelling approach integrating both palaeontological and neontological data, and large-scale datasets that contain information on the current distributions, phylogenetic relationships and fossil records for a total of 11,465 species. By reconstructing historical shifts in geographical ranges and climatic niches, we show that niche shifts are significantly faster in endotherms (birds and mammals) than in ectotherms (squamates and amphibians). We further demonstrate that the diversity patterns of the four clades are directly affected by the rate of niche evolution, with fewer latitudinal shifts in ectotherms.

Because body size interacts with many fundamental biological properties ofa species, body size evolution can be an essential component of the generationand maintenance of biodiversity. Here we investigate how body sizeevolution can be linked to the clade-specific diversification dynamics indifferent geographical regions. We analyse an extensive body size datasetof Neogene large herbivores (covering approx. 50% of the 970 species inthe orders Artiodactyla and Perissodactyla) in Europe and North Americain a Bayesian framework. We reconstruct the temporal patterns of bodysize in each order on each continent independently, and find significantincreases of minimum size in three of the continental assemblages (exceptEuropean perissodactyls), suggesting an active selection for larger bodies.Assessment of trait-correlated birth-death models indicates that thecommon trend of body size increase is generated by different processes indifferent clades and regions. Larger-bodied artiodactyl species on both continentstend to have higher origination rates, and both clades in NorthAmerica show strong links between large bodies and low extinction rate.Collectively, our results suggest a strong role of species selection and perhapsof higher-taxon sorting in driving body size evolution, and highlightthe value of investigating evolutionary processes in a biogeographic context.

• The Andean mountains of South America are the most species-rich biodiversity hotspot worldwide with about 15% of the world’s plant species, in only 1% of the world’s land surface. Orchids are a key element of the Andean flora, and one of the most prominent components of the Neotropical epiphyte diversity, yet very little is known about their origin and diversification.• We address this knowledge gap by inferring the biogeographical history and evolutionary dynamics of the two largest Neotropical orchid groups (Cymbidieae and Pleurothallidinae), using two unparalleled, densely-sampled orchid phylogenies (including 400+ newly generated DNA sequences), comparative phylogenetic methods, geological and biological datasets.• We find that the majority of Andean orchid lineages only originated in the last 15 million years. Most Andean lineages are derived from lowland Amazonian ancestors, with additional contributions from Central America and the Antilles. Species diversification is correlated with Andean orogeny, and multiple migrations and re-colonizations across the Andes indicate that mountains do not constrain orchid dispersal over long timescales.• Our study sheds new light on the timing and geography of a major Neotropical radiation, and suggests that mountain uplift promotes species diversification across all elevational zones.

The end of the Pliocene marked the beginning of a period of great climatic variability and sea-level oscillations. Here, based on a new analysis of the fossil record, we identify a previously unrecognized extinction event among marine megafauna (mammals, seabirds, turtles and sharks) during this time, with extinction rates three times higher than in the rest of the Cenozoic, and with 36% of Pliocene genera failing to survive into the Pleistocene. To gauge the potential consequences of this event for ecosystem functioning, we evaluate its impacts on functional diversity, focusing on the 86% of the megafauna genera that are associated with coastal habitats. Seven (14%) coastal functional entities (unique trait combinations) disappeared, along with 17% of functional richness (volume of the functional space). The origination of new genera during the Pleistocene created new functional entities and contributed to a functional shift of 21%, but minimally compensated for the functional space lost. Reconstructions show that from the late Pliocene onwards, the global area of the neritic zone significantly diminished and exhibited amplified fluctuations. We hypothesize that the abrupt loss of productive coastal habitats, potentially acting alongside oceanographic alterations, was a key extinction driver. The importance of area loss is supported by model analyses showing that animals with high energy requirements (homeotherms) were more susceptible to extinction. The extinction event we uncover here demonstrates that marine megafauna were more vulnerable to global environmental changes in the recent geological past than previously thought. The Pliocene marine megafaunal extinctions caused functional diversity loss, which was not mitigated by newly evolved taxa in the Pleistocene. This paper points towards an abrupt loss of productive coastal habitats as a key extinction driver.

Dyckia is a xeromorphic bromeliad genus with 168 species distributed throughout south-eastern South America, with the centre of diversity in Brazil. Previous phylogenetic studies based on sequence data revealed, in general, poor resolution among species. To improve our understanding of infrageneric relationships, here we present a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Dyckia based on amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. We also discuss the evolution of floral characters and their implications for the life-history of the genus. Dyckia proved to be well supported as a monophyletic group, although showing a poor resolution in the backbone of the tree. In accordance with previous data, our results suggest that hybridization and introgression have played a significant role in the evolution of the genus. However, the AFLP data showed stronger support for terminal nodes. The results provided deeper insights into the infrageneric relationships, the correlation between species groups, morphological aspects and geographical distribution. Additionally, the character reconstruction corroborates the geographical association found, in which a pattern could generally be observed for species stated as early diverging. Analysing the genus at a population level and taxonomic revision are crucial to understanding the evolutionary dynamics of the clade.

Independent evidence from rocks, fossils, and genes converge on a cohesive narrative of isthmus formation in the Pliocene., The formation of the Isthmus of Panama stands as one of the greatest natural events of the Cenozoic, driving profound biotic transformations on land and in the oceans. Some recent studies suggest that the Isthmus formed many millions of years earlier than the widely recognized age of approximately 3 million years ago (Ma), a result that if true would revolutionize our understanding of environmental, ecological, and evolutionary change across the Americas. To bring clarity to the question of when the Isthmus of Panama formed, we provide an exhaustive review and reanalysis of geological, paleontological, and molecular records. These independent lines of evidence converge upon a cohesive narrative of gradually emerging land and constricting seaways, with formation of the Isthmus of Panama sensu stricto around 2.8 Ma. The evidence used to support an older isthmus is inconclusive, and we caution against the uncritical acceptance of an isthmus before the Pliocene.

Animal clades tend to follow a predictable path of waxing and waning during their existence, regardless of their total species richness or geographic coverage. Clades begin small and undifferentiated, then expand to a peak in diversity and range, only to shift into a rarely broken decline towards extinction. While this trajectory is now well documented and broadly recognised, the reasons underlying it remain obscure. In particular, it is unknown why clade extinction is universal and occurs with such surprising regularity. Current explanations for paleontological extinctions call on the growing costs of biological interactions, geological accidents, evolutionary traps, and mass extinctions. While these are effective causes of extinction, they mainly apply to species, not clades. Although mass extinctions is the undeniable cause for the demise of a sizeable number of major taxa, we show here that clades escaping them go extinct because of the widespread tendency of evolution to produce increasingly specialised, sympatric, and geographically restricted species over time.

Cryptanthus comprises 72 species endemic to eastern Brazil with a center of diversity in the Atlantic Forest. The majority of the species are threatened due to habitat loss. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships in Cryptanthus based on amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) including 48 species and 109 accessions. The Bayesian phylogenetic analysis revealed four major lineages in Cryptanthus and provided further evidence for the paraphyly of subgen. Hoplocryptanthus, while subgenus Cryptanthus was resolved as monophyletic. Monophyly of previously recognized morphological species groups at sectional level could not be confirmed. Based on the phylogenetic reconstruction we inferred the evolution of the sex system in Cryptanthus via maximum likelihood (ML) ancestral character reconstruction. Homoecy, the possession of hermaphrodite flowers only, was reconstructed as the ancestral state in the genus and characterizes three of the four main lineages within Cryptanthus. Andromonoecy, the possession of male and hermaphrodite flowers on the same plant, evolved only once and represents a synapomorphy of the fourth main lineage, C. subgen. Cryptanthus. The ancestral biome analysis reconstructed Cerrado (semiarid scrublands and forests) and campos rupestres (rock fields) as the most likely ancestral biomes for the genus. A shift to the Atlantic Forest biome was reconstructed to have occurred twice, in the ancestor of the first diverging lineage within the genus and in the ancestor of the C. subgen. Cryptanthus clade. A shift to the Caatinga (tropical dryland savanna) and one reversal to Cerrado (campos rupestres - rock fields) was reconstructed to have occurred once, in C. bahianus and C. arelii, respectively. The ancestral biome reconstruction indicates a high degree of niche conservatism within Cryptanthus with rare biome shifts throughout the evolution of the genus. Further, our results imply that the current infrageneric taxonomy of Cryptanthus is problematic and requires revision.

The history of biodiversity is characterized by a continual replacement of branches in the tree of life. The rise and demise of these branches (clades) are ultimately determined by changes in speciation and extinction rates, often interpreted as a response to varying abiotic and biotic factors. However, understanding the relative importance of these factors remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Here we analyze the rich North American fossil record of the dog family Canidae and of other carnivores to tease apart the roles of competition, body size evolution, and climate change on the sequential replacement of three canid subfamilies (two of which have gone extinct). We develop a novel Bayesian analytic framework to show that competition from multiple carnivore clades successively drove the demise and replacement of the two extinct canid subfamilies by increasing their extinction rates and suppressing their speciation. Competitive effects have likely come from ecologically similar species from both canid and felid clades. These results imply that competition among entire clades, generally considered a rare process, can play a more substantial role than climate change and body size evolution in determining the sequential rise and decline of clades.

Current phylogenetic comparative methods modeling quantitative trait evolution generally assume that, during speciation, phenotypes are inherited identically between the two daughter species. This, however, neglects the fact that species consist of a set of individuals, each bearing its own trait value. Indeed, because descendent populations after speciation are samples of a parent population, we can expect their mean phenotypes to randomly differ from one another potentially generating a “jump” of mean phenotypes due to asymmetrical trait inheritance at cladogenesis. Here, we aim to clarify the effect of asymmetrical trait inheritance at speciation on macroevolutionary analyses, focusing on model testing and parameter estimation using some of the most common models of quantitative trait evolution. We developed an individual-based simulation framework in which the evolution of phenotypes is determined by trait changes at the individual level accumulating across generations, and cladogenesis occurs then by separation of subsets of the individuals into new lineages. Through simulations, we assess the magnitude of phenotypic jumps at cladogenesis under different modes of trait inheritance at speciation. We show that even small jumps can strongly alter both the results of model selection and parameter estimations, potentially affecting the biological interpretation of the estimated mode of evolution of a trait. Our results call for caution when interpreting analyses of trait evolution, while highlighting the importance of testing a wide range of alternative models. In the light of our findings, we propose that future methodological advances in comparative methods should more explicitly model the intraspecific variability around species mean phenotypes and how it is inherited at speciation.