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Climate regulation strategies based on forest restoration could pose an increase in fire risk, especially under drier and warmer conditions over large regions of Europe, impacting climate, the environment and human health. Climate-smarter options, such as wetlands restoration or recovery of grassland, that provide similar benefits for climate but also develop less flammable landscape is a more suitable option for these regions in Europe and elsewhere facing similar challenges.

The combined effects of climate change and other factors, such as land-use change or fire disturbance, pose daunting challenges for biodiversity conservation world-wide. We predicted the future effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000), the current network of protected areas (PA) in Europe, at maintaining and representing suitable environmental conditions for a set of 79 bird species between 2000 and 2050 in a fire-prone area, strongly affected by land abandonment processes in North East Spain. We then compared PA performance with a set of alternative priority areas for conservation, which consider fire-vegetation dynamics, selected by using a conservation planning tool (Marxan). Fire-vegetation dynamics were modelled using a process-based model (Medfire Model) under alternative fire management and climate change scenarios. Bird communities were predicted using the spatially explicit species assemblage modelling framework (SESAM) and species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire-vegetation dynamics. The amount of suitable environmental conditions within the N2000 network was predicted to fall by around 15%, on average, over the next decades in relation to the initial conditions but could be partially modulated by fire management policies in future. The efficiency of the current PA system was predicted to decrease from 17.4% to 15% between 2000 and 2050. However, a more efficient PA system could be achieved with a conservation planning approach that explicitly considers fire-vegetation dynamics and their management. Synthesis and applications. Our findings show: (a) how the current Natura 2000 could still hold an important bird conservation value by 2050; (b) how the relocation of some protected areas should be considered in order to substantially increase bird conservation effectiveness; and (c) how the integration of fire-vegetation dynamics, fire management policies and their objectives within conservation planning provide “win–win” solutions for bird conservation and fire prevention in fire-prone abandoned landscapes., This work was partly funded by the projects EU BON (308454; FP7-ENV-2012, European Commission), FORESTCAST (CGL2014-59742), INFORMED (FORESTERRA ERA-NET 29183) and NEWFORESTS (EU Seventh Framework Programme, PIRSES-GA-2013-612645). A.R. is funded by the Xunta de Galicia (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0). V.H. also received funding support provided by the Spanish Government through a Ramon y Cajal contract (RYC-2013-13979).

The need to incorporate habitat dynamics into spatial conservation prioritization is increasingly recognized but often limited by the lack of available temporal data. To overcome this limitation, model-assisted monitoring has been advocated and developed over the last decade. However, predictive modelling often relies on static habitat features or interpolated climate data, failing to consider other relevant ecological processes such as primary productivity and its dynamics. The importance of primary productivity relies on its key role in determining the availability of food resources via trophic cascades. This study aims to assess how the spatiotemporal variation in the habitat quality for top predators (using raptors as case study) can be affected by temporal fluctuations in primary productivity, and whether its incorporation into habitat modelling improves predictions in space and time. Through model predictions we then incorporate interannual habitat-quality dynamics into spatial conservation planning to identify priority areas for raptor conservation based on a new set of dynamic priority-area indices. Using raptor occurrence data from two surveys (2001 and 2014), we found high model performance and transferability for all species (AUC2001 = 0.89 ± 0.10 and Boyce’s Index2001 of 0.78 ± 0.20; AUC2014 = 0.89 ± 0.12 and Boyce’s Index2014 of 0.87 ± 0.06). Annual mean and minimum values of EVI (indicators of productivity and phenology, respectively) and elevation were the most important predictor variables for most raptor species. However, the standard deviation of EVI (an indicator of seasonality) was also found to be an important predictor for migratory species breeding in shrublands and croplands. Interannual model predictions showed a large interannual variation in habitat availability across species, partially associated with regional land-use changes. Interannual habitat-quality dynamics was translated into marked changes in the priority areas for raptor conservation —areas mostly associated with deciduous forest and water environments (rivers and dams) in our study area. Our results shed light on the role of intra- and interannual dynamics of primary productivity in driving habitat quality for top predators. They also confirm the potential of remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes to inform about habitat-quality dynamics in a cost-effective, standardized and repeatable way. Incorporating interannual dynamics of primary productivity in habitat modelling supports raptor conservation prioritization by informing about adequacy, stability and legacy of raptor conservation areas.

Climate change has been widely accepted as one of the major threats for global biodiversity and understanding its potential effects on species distribution is crucial to optimise conservation planning in future scenarios under global change. Integrating detailed climatic data across spatial and temporal scales into species distribution modelling can help to predict potential changes in biodiversity. Consequently, this type of data can be useful for developing efficient biodiversity management and conservation planning. The provision of such data becomes even more important in highly biodiverse regions, currently suffering from climatic and landscape changes. The Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (BRMI; Portugal-Spain) is one of the most relevant reserves for wildlife in Europe. This highly diverse region is of great ecological and socio-economical interest, suffering from synergistic processes of rural land abandonment and climatic instabilities that currently threaten local biodiversity. Aiming to optimise conservation planning in the Reserve, we provide a complete dataset of historical and future climate models (1 x 1 km) for the BRMI, used to build a series of distribution models for 207 vertebrate species. These models are projected for 2050 under two climate change scenarios. The climatic suitability of 52% and 57% of the species are predicted to decrease under the intermediate and extreme climatic scenarios, respectively. These models constitute framework data for improving local conservation planning in the Reserve, which should be further supported by implementing climate and land-use change factors to increase the accuracy of future predictions of species distributions in the study area. Herein, we provide a complete dataset of state-of-the-art historical and future climate model simulations, generated by global-regional climate model chains, with climatic variables resolved at a high spatial resolution (1 × 1 km) over the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica. Additionally, a complete series of distribution models for 207 species (168 birds, 24 reptiles and 15 amphibians) under future (2050) climate change scenarios is delivered, which constitute framework data for improving local conservation planning in the reserve.

Urgent action needs to be taken to halt global biodiversity crisis. To be effective in the implementation of such action, managers and policy-makers need updated information on the status and trends of biodiversity. Here, we test the ability of remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) to predict the distribution of 73 bird species with different life-history traits. We run ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) trained with bird atlas data and 12 EFAs describing different dimensions of carbon cycle and surface energy balance. Our ensemble SDMs—exclusively based on EFAs—hold a high predictive capacity across 71 target species (up to 0.94 and 0.79 of Area Under the ROC curve and true skill statistic (TSS)). Our results showed the life-history traits did not significantly affect SDM performance. Overall, minimum Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and maximum Albedo values (descriptors of primary productivity and energy balance) were the most important predictors across our bird community. Our approach leverages the existing atlas data and provides an alternative method to monitor inter-annual bird habitat dynamics from space in the absence of long-term biodiversity monitoring schemes. This study illustrates the great potential that satellite remote sensing can contribute to the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and to the Essential Biodiversity Variables framework (EBV class “Species distribution”) Fieldwork campaigns were carried out within the project “Estudios sobre a biodiversidade do Macizo Central Galego. Lugar de Importancia Comunitaria” (PGIDT99PXI20002B) and “Caracterización de los vertebrados del LIC Macizo Central e Bidueiral de Montederramo”, code: 2008-CE227”, funded by SAYFOR S.L. This work also received funding from Xunta de Galicia through the grant to structure and consolidate competitive research groups of Galicia (ED431B 2018/36). A.R. was funded by the Xunta de Galicia, Spain (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0). S.A.-C. was financially supported by PORBIOTA—E-Infraestrutura Portuguesa de Informação e Investigação em Biodiversidade (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-022127) SI

Carbon storage in forests and its ability to offset global greenhouse gas emissions, as well as biodiversity and its capacity to support ecosystem functions and services, are often considered separately in landscape planning. However, the potential synergies between them are currently poorly understood. Identifying the spatial patterns and factors driving their co-occurrence across different climatic zones is critical to more effectively conserve forest ecosystems at the regional level. Here, we integrated information of National Forest Inventories and Breeding Bird Atlases across Europe and North America (Spain and Quebec, respectively), covering five subclimates (steppe, dry Mediterranean, humid Mediterranean, boreal, and temperate). In particular, this study aimed to (1) determine the spatial patterns of both forest carbon stocks and biodiversity (bird richness, tree richness, and overall biodiversity) and the factors that influence them; (2) establish the relationships between forest carbon stocks and biodiversity; and (3) define and characterize the areas of high (hotspots) and low (coldspots) values of carbon and biodiversity, and ultimately quantify their spatial overlap. Our results show that the factors affecting carbon and biodiversity vary between regions and subclimates. The highest values of carbon and biodiversity were found in northern Spain (humid Mediterranean subclimate) and southern Quebec (temperate subclimate) where there was more carbon as climate conditions were less limiting. High density and structural diversity simultaneously favored carbon stocks, tree, and overall biodiversity, especially in isolated and mountainous areas, often associated with steeper slopes and low accessibility. In addition, the relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity was positive in both regions and all subclimates, being stronger where climate is a limiting factor for forest growth. The spatial overlap between hotspots of carbon and biodiversity provides an excellent opportunity for landscape planning to maintain carbon stocks and conserve biodiversity. The variables positively affecting carbon and biodiversity were also driving the hotspots of both carbon and biodiversity, emphasizing the viability of "win-win" solutions. Our results highlight the need to jointly determine the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and biodiversity for an effective and sustainable planning of forest landscapes that simultaneously support conservation and mitigate climate change.

Simple Summary This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Montagu’s harrier (Circus pygargus) breeding in mountain heathlands in the NW Iberian Peninsula. These populations have been affected by habitat loss caused by land-use change. Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study shows that habitat suitability predicted from niche models was significantly correlated with the relative abundance for hen harrier and, to a lesser extent, for Montagu’s harrier. However, the temporal variation in local population abundance was not significantly explained by habitat suitability changes predicted by the niche models. These findings call for caution in the use of niche models to infer changes in population abundance. The positive relationship between species abundance and habitat suitability supports the use of niche models to estimate abundance but does not guarantee the ability of these models to predict temporal variations in species abundance. These findings highlight (1) the need to include other possible biotic or abiotic factors involved in population abundance dynamics into niche models and (2) the need to establish specific monitoring protocols for tracking population dynamics. Abstract Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) and Montagu’s harrier (Circus pygargus), surveyed in 1997 and 2017 in an upland moor area in northwestern Spain. The ENMs performed very well for both species (with area under the ROC curve and true skill statistic values of up to 0.9 and 0.75). The presence of both species was mainly correlated with heathlands, although the normalized difference water index derived from Landsat images was the most important for hen harrier, indicating a greater preference of this species for wet heaths and peat bogs. The findings showed that ENM-derived habitat suitability was significantly correlated with the species abundance, thus reinforcing the use of ENMs as a proxy for species abundance. However, the temporal variation in species abundance was not significantly explained by changes in habitat suitability predicted by the ENMs, indicating the need for caution when using these types of models to infer changes in population abundance.

SummaryThe aim of this study was to assess the temporal transferability of species distribution models (SDMs) and their potential implications for bird conservation. We quantified the loss and fragmentation of Montagu’s Harrier Circus pygargus and Common Kestrel Falco tinnunculus habitats over 13 years (2001–2014) in a highly dynamic landscape in north-western Spain. For this purpose, priority habitats for the target species were modelled at four different spatial scales using an ensemble forecasting framework. To explore the temporal transferability of our ensemble predictions, the models were back-projected to the land cover conditions in 2001 and evaluated using historical occurrence data. In addition, models calibrated with historical data were projected to the land cover conditions in 2014 and evaluated using updated occurrence data. Changes in availability and connectivity of suitable habitats between both years were estimated at four spatial scales from a set of widely-used indicators. SDMs showed a good predictive accuracy but with limited temporal transferability due to changes in the species-habitat relationships between 2001 and 2014. The results showed a decrease in the avaliability of suitable habitats of 33.4% and 47.7% for Montagu’s Harrier and Common Kestrel, respectively; with the subsequent increase in their fragmentation. However, our estimates were found to be strongly dependent on the scale of analysis and model transferability. Changes in habitat availability and connectivity ranged from -48% to +54% for Montagu’s Harrier, and from +116% to +5.6% for Common Kestrel. We call for caution when using SDMs beyond the model calibration time period to guide bird conservation. This is especially important for raptors, often characterised by low population sizes and large home ranges, and particularly sensitive to unstable, highly dynamic environmental conditions. In light of these results, specific, long-standing monitoring protocols remain essential to ensure accurate modelling performance and reliable future projections.

Community-level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non-climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely-used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process-based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire-prone systems, wildfire management and land-use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively., This work was partly funded by the EU BON (308454; FP7‐ENV‐2012, European Commission), FORESTCAST (CGL2014‐59742), TRUSTEE (RURAGRI ERA‐NET 235175), INFORMED (FORESTERRA ERA‐NET 29183) and NEWFORESTS (EU Seventh Framework Programme, PIRSES‐GA‐2013‐612645) projects. AR is funded by the Xunta de Galicia (post‐doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084‐0). MD was supported by the FP7‐PEOPLE‐2012‐IEF Marie Curie Action (Project No. 327987).

Global environmental changes are affecting both the distribution and abundance of species at an unprecedented rate. To assess these effects, species distribution models (SDMs) have been greatly developed over the last decades, while species abundance models (SAMs) have generally received less attention even though these models provide essential information for conservation management. With population abundance defined as an essential biodiversity variable (EBV), SAMs could offer spatially explicit predictions of species abundance across space and time. Satellite-derived ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) are known to inform on processes controlling species distribution, but they have not been tested as predictors of species abundance. In this study, we assessed the usefulness of SAMs calibrated with EFAs (as process-related variables) to predict local abundance patterns for a rare and threatened species (the narrow Iberian endemic ‘Gerês lily’ Iris boissieri; protected under the European Union Habitats Directive), and to project inter-annual fluctuations of predicted abundance. We compared the predictive accuracy of SAMs calibrated with climate (CLI), topography (DEM), land cover (LCC), EFAs, and combinations of these. Models fitted only with EFAs explained the greatest variance in species abundance, compared to models based only on CLI, DEM, or LCC variables. The combination of EFAs and topography slightly increased model performance. Predictions of the inter-annual dynamics of species abundance were related to inter-annual fluctuations in climate, which holds important implications for tracking global change effects on species abundance. This study underlines the potential of EFAs as robust predictors of biodiversity change through population size trends. The combination of EFA-based SAMs and SDMs would provide an essential toolkit for species monitoring programs., This work has been carried out within the H2020 project ECOPOTENTIAL: Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits Through Earth Observations (http://www.ecopotential-project.eu). The project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 641762. S.A.-C., D.A.-S., and J.H. received funding from the ECOPOTENTIAL project. A.R. was financially supported by the Xunta de Galicia, Spain (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0). J.F.G. was funded by the Individual Scientific Employment Stimulus Program (2017) by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT CEEC-2017).

Despite much discussion about the utility of remote sensing for effective conservation, the inclusion of these technologies in species recovery plans remains largely anecdotal. We developed a modeling approach for the integration of local, spatially measured ecosystem functional dynamics into a species distribution modeling (SDM) framework in which other ecologically relevant factors are modeled separately at broad scales. To illustrate the approach, we incorporated intraseasonal water-vegetation dynamics into a cross-scale SDM for the Common Snipe (Gallinago gallinago), which is highly dependent on water and vegetation dynamics. The Common Snipe is an Iberian grassland waterbird characteristic of European agricultural meadows and a member of one of the most threatened bird guilds. The intraseasonal dynamics of water content of vegetation were measured using the standard deviation of the normalized difference water index time series computed from bimonthly images of the Sentinel-2 satellite. The recovery plan for the Common Snipe in Galicia (northwestern Iberian Peninsula) provided an opportunity to apply our modeling framework. Model accuracy in predicting the species' distribution at a regional scale (resulting from integration of downscaled climate projections with regional habitat-topographic suitability models) was very high (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.981 and Boyce's index of 0.971). Local water-vegetation dynamic models, based exclusively on Sentinel-2 imagery, were good predictors (AUC of 0.849 and Boyce's index of 0.976). The predictive power improved (AUC of 0.92 and Boyce's index of 0.98) when local model predictions were restricted to areas identified by the continental and regional models as priorities for conservation. Our models also performed well (AUC of 0.90 and Boyce's index of 0.93) when projected to updated water-vegetation conditions. Our modeling framework enabled incorporation of key ecosystem processes closely related to water and carbon cycles while accounting for other factors ecologically relevant to endangered grassland waterbirds across different scales, allowed identification of priority areas for conservation, and provided an opportunity for cost-effective recovery planning by monitoring management effectiveness from space.Integración de las Dinámicas Intraestacionales de los Pastizales al Modelado de la Distribución a través de Diversas Escalas para Respaldar los Planes de Recuperación de Aves Acuáticas Resumen A pesar A pesar del potencial de la teledetección para la conservación, la inclusión de estas tecnologías en los planes de recuperación de especies es muy poco habitual. En este trabajo, desarrollamos una estrategia de modelado para la integración de dinámicas ecosistémicas funcionales locales medidas espacialmente dentro de un marco de trabajo del modelado de distribución de especies (MDE), en el cual otros factores ecológicamente relevantes se modelan por separado y a escalas más generales. Para ilustrar la estrategia incorporamos las dinámicas Intraestacionales de la vegetación acuática en un MDE multiescala escalas para la agachadiza común (Gallinago gallinago), la cual es sumamente dependiente de las dinámicas del agua y la vegetación. La agachadiza común es un ave acuática de los pastizales ibéricos, característica de las praderas agrícolas de Europa y miembro de uno de los grupos de aves más amenazados. Medimos las dinámicas intraestacionales del contenido de agua de la vegetación con la desviación estándar de la serie temporal del índice de diferencia normalizada de agua a partir de las imágenes bimensuales del satélite Sentinel-2. El plan de recuperación para la agachadiza común en Galicia (noroeste de la península ibérica) proporcionó una oportunidad para aplicar nuestro marco de trabajo. La capacidad del modelo para predecir la distribución de la especie a una escala regional (resultante de la integración de proyecciones climáticas a escala reducida con modelos regionales de idoneidad hábitat-topografía) fue muy alta (área bajo la curva [AUC] de 0.981 e índice de Boyce de 0.971). El poder de predicción aumentó (AUC de 0.92 e índice de Boyce de 0.98) cuando las predicciones de los modelos locales estuvieron restringidos a áreas identificadas por los modelos continentales y regionales como prioritarias para la conservación. Nuestros modelos también tuvieron un buen desempeño (AUC de 0.90 e índice de Boyce de 0.93) cuando los proyectamos hacia las condiciones actualizadas de vegetación acuática. Nuestro marco de trabajo permitió la incorporación de procesos ecosistémicos clave intimamente relacionados con los ciclos del agua y del carbono a la vez que representaba otros factores ecológicamente relevantes para las aves acuáticas amenazadas de pastizal, a través de diferentes escalas. También permitió la identificación de áreas prioritarias para la conservación y proporcionó oportunidades para la planificación rentable de la recuperación al monitorear la efectividad del manejo desde el espacio.虽然目前有许多关于遥感在有效保护的应用方面的讨论, 但真正将这些技术纳入物种恢复计划很大程度上还没有实现。我们开发了一种建模方法, 将空间测定的局部生态系统功能动态纳入物种分布模型的框架中, 其中其它生态学相关因素可以在大尺度上分别建模。作为示例, 我们在高度依赖水和植被动态变化的物种--扇尾沙锥 (Gallinago gallinago) 的跨尺度物种分布模型中纳入了季节内水-植被动态变化。扇尾沙锥是一种伊比利亚草原水鸟, 是欧洲草地农业生境中的典型物种, 也是最受胁迫的鸟类类群之一。我们利用哨兵-2 卫星两个月一次的图像, 计算了归一化水体指数时间序列的标准差, 来衡量植被中水体含量的季节内动态。加利西亚 (伊比利亚半岛西北部) 扇尾沙锥的恢复计划为应用我们的模型框架提供了机会。结合小尺度气候预测与区域生境地形适宜性模型, 我们的模型预测区域尺度物种分布的准确度非常高, 曲线下面积达到 0.981, 博伊斯指数为 0.971。完全基于哨兵-2 图像的局部水-植被动态模型也是很好的预测因子, 曲线下面积为 0.849, 博伊斯指数为 0.976。将局部模型预测限制在大陆和区域模型确定的优先保护区域时, 预测能力会有所提高 (曲线下面积为 0.92, 博伊斯指数为 0.98) 。我们的模型在新的水-植被条件下也表现得很好 (曲线下面积为 0.90, 博伊斯指数为 0.93) 。这个模型框架可以整合与水和碳循环紧密联系的关键生态系统过程, 同时考虑其它不同尺度上与濒危草地水鸟相关的生态学因素, 有助于确定优先保护区域, 并通过空间监测管理有效性为经济有效的恢复计划创造条件。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Increases in fire impacts over many regions of the world have led to large-scale investments in fire-suppression efforts. There is increasing recognition that biomass extraction for energy purposes may become an important forest-management practice in fire-prone ecosystems. However, at present, very few studies have explicitly assessed biomass extraction as a fuel treatment at landscape scale. Here, we use a landscape fire-succession model in Catalonia (NE Spain) to quantitatively evaluate the potential effects of a biomass extraction-based strategy on essential fire-regime attributes after considering different levels of fire suppression, biomass extraction intensity, and spatial allocation of such efforts. Our simulations indicated that the effectiveness (area suppressed in relation to expected area to burn) at suppressing wildfires was determined by extraction intensity, spatial allocation of the extraction effort, and the fire-suppression levels involved. Indeed, the highest suppressed-area values were found with lower harvesting intensities, especially under high fire-suppression capabilities and strategies focused on bioenergy goals (figures close to 0.7). However, the leverage (area suppressed in relation to managed area) was higher when the treatments were based on the fire-prevention strategy and focused on high-fire-risk areas (up to 0.45) than with treatment designed for energy reasons (lower than 0.15). We conclude that biomass extraction for energy purposes has the potential to induce changes in fire regimes and can therefore be considered a cost-effective landscape-level fuel-reduction treatment. However, our results suggest that large-scale biomass extraction may be needed if significant changes in fire regimes are to be expected.

Main conclusion Overexpression of chalcone-3-hydroxylase provokes increased accumulation of 3-hydroxyphloridzin in Malus . Decreased flavonoid concentrations but unchanged flavonoid class composition were observed. The increased 3-hydroxyphlorizin contents correlate well with reduced susceptibility to fire blight and scab. The involvement of dihydrochalcones in the apple defence mechanism against pathogens is discussed but unknown biosynthetic steps in their formation hamper studies on their physiological relevance. The formation of 3-hydroxyphloretin is one of the gaps in the pathway. Polyphenol oxidases and cytochrome P450 dependent enzymes could be involved. Hydroxylation of phloretin in position 3 has high similarity to the B-ring hydroxylation of flavonoids catalysed by the well-known flavonoid 3′-hydroxylase (F3′H). Using recombinant F3′H and chalcone 3-hydroxylase (CH3H) from Cosmos sulphureus we show that F3′H and CH3H accept phloretin to some extent but higher conversion rates are obtained with CH3H. To test whether CH3H catalyzes the hydroxylation of dihydrochalcones in planta and if this could be of physiological relevance, we created transgenic apple trees harbouring CH3H from C. sulphureus. The three transgenic lines obtained showed lower polyphenol concentrations but no shift between the main polyphenol classes dihydrochalcones, flavonols, hydroxycinnamic acids and flavan 3-ols. Increase of 3-hydroxyphloridzin within the dihydrochalcones and of epicatechin/catechin within soluble flavan 3-ols were observed. Decreased activity of dihydroflavonol 4-reductase and chalcone synthase/chalcone isomerase could partially explain the lower polyphenol concentrations. In comparison to the parent line, the transgenic CH3H-lines showed a lower disease susceptibility to fire blight and apple scab that correlated with the increased 3-hydroxyphlorizin contents. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00425-016-2475-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Habitats Directive (HD) and the associated Natura 2000 Network represent the major commitment of the European Union to biodiversity conservation. They are aimed at maintaining natural habitats in a favourable conservation status, which is assessed every 6 years by the member states under the legal obligation derived from HD Articles 11 and 17. Such assessment relies on habitats compositional and structural attributes, but should also consider ecosystem functions. Monitoring such functions represents an opportunity to incorporate Remote Sensing (RS) into the real-world biodiversity monitoring efforts. Here, we introduce a set of prospects and issues connected with RS aided monitoring of ecosystem functions and services within the framework of the reporting obligations of HD.

Aim Global environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. Location Catalonia, Spain. Methods Potential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union’s Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. Results Our results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network.

In many regions of Europe, large-scale socio-economic changes have led to the abandonment of rural activities and a gradual takeover of natural vegetation. It is important to assess the relative positive and negative effects of land abandonment on particular areas where the low-intensity farming is no longer socially or economically viable in order to quantify the potential conservation costs and benefits of a rewilding as a land-use management policy. During the period 2000–2010, we studied the land-use/land-cover changes in an abandoned mountain landscape (Galicia, NW Spain) and evaluated the effects on breeding bird occurrence and distribution. For this purpose, we analysed remotely sensed data-derived maps in combination with data obtained from bird censuses carried out in 2000 and 2010 at both landscape and census plot scale. The results revealed a gradient of change from bare ground and open shrubland to closed shrubland and woodland. Thirteen shrubland and forest bird species showed a significant increase (including species of conservation concern such as Turtle Dove, Dartford Warbler and Western Bonelli’s Warbler), while four ecotone and open-habitat species (e.g. Red-backed Shrike) showed a significant negative trend. In conclusion, rewilding appears to have overall positive effects on biodiversity and should be considered by policy makers as alternative land-use strategy in marginal mountain areas, particularly if they have been historically affected by wildfires. Fire management aimed at favouring the creation of small burned areas in progressively closed landscapes derived from rewilding may be a complementary alternative to maintain open habitats in these areas.

Habitat loss and degradation induced by human development are among the major threats to biodiversity worldwide. In this study, we tested our ability to predict the response of bird communities (128 species) to land-use changes in southern Quebec (~483,100 km2 ) over the last 30 yr (between 1984-1989 and 2010-2014) by using species distribution models (299,302 occurrences in 30,408 locations) from a hindcasting perspective. Results were grouped by functional guilds to infer potential impacts on ecosystem services, and to relate model transferability (i.e., ability of our models to be generalized to other times and scales) to specific functional and life-history traits. Overall, our models were able to accurately predict, both in space and time, habitat suitability for 69% of species, especially for granivorous, nonmigrant, tree-nesting species, and species that are tied to agricultural areas under intensive use. These findings indicate that model transferability depends upon specific functional and life-history traits, providing further evidence that species' ecologies affect the ability of models to accurately predict bird distributions. Declining bird species were mostly short-distance migrants that were associated with open habitats (agricultural and nonproductive forest) with aerial insectivorous or granivorous diets, which may be related to agricultural intensification and land abandonment. Land-use changes were positive for some forest bird species that were mainly associated with mixed and deciduous forests, generalist diets and tree-nesting strategies. Yet cavity-nesting birds have suffered substantial reductions in their distributions, suggesting that cumulative effects of intensive logging and wildfires on mature forests pose a threat for forest-specialist species. Habitat suitability changes predicted by our coarse-scale species distribution models partially agreed with the long-term trends reported by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Our findings confirm land-use change as a key driving force for shaping bird communities in southern Quebec, together with the need to explicitly incorporate it into global change scenarios that better inform decision-makers on conservation and management.

Monitoring protected areas (PAs) is essential for systematic evaluation of their effectiveness in terms of habitat protection, preservation and representativeness. This study illustrates how the use of species distribution models that combine remote sensing data and information about biodiversity surrogates can contribute to develop a systematic protocol for monitoring PAs. In particular, we assessed the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000) network, for conserving and preserving the representativeness of seven raptor species in a highly-dynamic landscape in northwest Spain between 2001 and 2014. We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the N2000 network by using the total area under protection as a proxy for conservation costs. Overall, the N2000 network was found to poorly represent the habitats of the raptor species. Despite the low representativeness, this network showed a high degree of effectiveness due to increased overall habitat availability for generalist and forest specialist species between 2001 and 2014. Nevertheless, additional protected areas should be established in the near future to increase their representativeness, and thus ensure the protection of open-habitat specialist species and their priority habitats. In addition, proactive conservation measures in natural and semi-natural ecosystems (in particular, montane heathlands) will be essential for long-term protection of Montagu’s harrier (species listed in the Annex I of the Bird Directive), and thus complying with the current European Environmental Legislation. This study sheds light on how the development and application of new protected area indices based on the combined use of freely-available satellite data and species distribution models may contribute substantially to the cost-efficiency of the PA monitoring systems, and to the ‘Fitness Check’ process of EU Nature Directives This work was partly funded by the EU BON (308454; FP7-ENV-2012, European Commission), FORESTCAST (CGL2014-59742) and NEWFORESTS (EU Seventh Framework Programme, PIRSES-GA-2013-612645) projects. A.R. was funded by the Xunta de Galicia (post-doctoral fellowship ED481B2016/084-0). Fieldwork was partially supported by the Department of Environment of Galician Government through the PGIDTO1MAM20001PR (Xunta de Galicia) project SI

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is one of the main components of current anthropogenic global change. Unravelling the ecological response of biodiversity to the combined effect of land use change and other stressors is essential for effective conservation. For this purpose, we used co-inertia analysis to combine LULCC analysis of earth observation satellite data-derived maps and raptor data obtained from road censuses conducted in 2001 and 2014 at sampling unit level (10 km2 spatial resolution), in northwestern Spain (province of Ourense, c. 7281 km2). In addition, habitat suitability models were also computed using ten widely used single-modelling techniques providing an ensemble of predictions at landscape level (four spatial resolutions: 500-m, 1-km, 2-km and 5-km radius around each sighting) for each year and raptor species to analyse the habitat suitability changes in the whole study area through three niche overlap indices. The models revealed an increase in occurrence and habitat suitability of forest raptor species coupled with a strong decrease in species associated with open habitats, mainly heaths and shrub formations. Open-habitat specialist species were negatively affected by the concomitant effects of intensive forest management and a long-lasting trend of rural abandonment coupled with an unusually high frequency of wildfires. Sustainable forest management and agricultural practices should be encouraged by both public and private sectors, through, e.g. policies related to European funds for rural and regional development (FEDER and FEADER programs) to effectively protect threatened habitats and species, and to comply with current environmental legislation. The combined use of satellite imagery and ground-level biodiversity data proved to be a cost-effective and systematic method for monitoring priority habitats and their species in highly dynamic landscapes.

International audience

International audience; Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth’s biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity., The workshop leading to this paper was funded by the Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. LTK was funded by a Victorian Postdoctoral Research Fellowship (Victorian Government), a Centenary Fellowship 15 (University of Melbourne) and an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP150100765). AR funded by the Xunta de Galicia (Postdoctoral Fellowship ED481B2016/084-0) and the Foundation for Science and Technology under the FirESmart project (PCIF/MOG/0083/2017). ALS was supported by a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (746191) under the European Union Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation. LB was partially 20 funded by the Spanish Government through the INMODES (CGL2014-59742-C2-2-R) and the ERANET-SUMFORESTS project FutureBioEcon (PCIN-2017-052)