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Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoring, semi-automatic species identification models, and species distribution models of 21 bird and frog species based on past (1980–1989), present (2005–2014), and future (2040–2060) climate scenarios to determine how species distributions relate to the current distribution of protected areas in Puerto Rico. Species detection/non-detection data were acquired across ~ 700 sampling sites. We developed always-suitable maps that characterized suitable habitats in all three time periods for each species and overlaid these maps to identify regions with high species co-occurrence. These distributions were then compared with the distribution of existing protected areas. We show that Puerto Rico is projected to become dryer by 2040–2060, and precipitation in the warmest quarter was among the most important variables affecting bird and frog distributions. A large portion of always-suitable areas (ASA) is outside of protected areas (> 80%), and the percent of protected areas that overlaps with always-suitable areas is larger for bird (75%) than frog (39%) species. Our results indicate that present protected areas will not suffice to safeguard bird and frog species under climate change; however, the establishment of larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between protected areas may allow species to find suitable niches to withstand environmental changes.

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few or chorus) for four amphibian species (Eleutherodactylus wightmanae, E. brittoni, E. antillensis, and E. coqui) in Puerto Rico, USA. We also assessed how the same factors influenced reproductive activity of E. coqui and how species responded to hurricane María (20 September 2017). As predicted, occupancy and abundance of E. wightmanae, E. brittoni and E. coqui were positively and strongly influenced by abiotic covariates (e.g., relative humidity) that characterize high elevation, mesic habitats. E. antillensis exhibited the opposite pattern, with highest probabilities (≥0.6) recorded at ≤300 m and with average relative humidity80% and temperature of ≤26 °C. Moderate to high probabilities of detecting a chorus (0.4–0.7) were recorded at sites with average temperatures>26 °C, but no reproductive activity was detected, implying that monitoring abundance alone could misrepresent the capacity of a local population to sustain itself. The possibility underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between local demographic and environmental parameters in the advent of global warming to help guide monitoring and management decisions, especially for high elevation specialists. Hurricanes can inflict marked reductions in population numbers, but impacts vary by location and species. We found that the abundance (chorus) of E. antillensis and E. brittoni increased after the hurricane, but the abundance of the other two species did not differ between years. Lack of impacts was probably mediated by low structural damage to forest tracts (e.g., 9% canopy loss). Our findings help assess habitat suitability in terms of parameters that foster local population growth, which provides a basis for testing spatio-temporal predictions about demographic rates in potential climate refugia and for designing criteria to help guide managed translocations.

Maintenance of the natural flow regime is essential for continued wetland integrity; however, the flow regime is greatly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic forces. Wetlands may be particularly susceptible to altered flow regimes as they are directly impacted by water flows at a variety of time scales. In Puerto Rico, contemporary water management is decreasing freshwater recharge to wetlands and contributes to the salinization of important coastal wetlands as sea levels rise. Further, downscaled climate models predict an increase in drought frequency, intensity, and duration by mid-century. Conflicts over water allocation seem imminent between human and ecological needs. Current minimum flow policies are insufficient given the complexities of ecosystem processes and the changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise that are expected in the future. Improved flow policies need to be established that reflect the functional relationships between specific representative ecological resources and components of the natural flow regime across all relevant time scales. Similarly, flow policies need to be developed within a landscape scale to implicitly address the socio-ecological trade-offs as well as the complexities of water management. Multi-disciplinary collaborations will be essential for increasing our resiliency to anticipated future changes.

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares > 1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Designing conservation strategies in human-dominated landscapes is challenging, owing to complex human-natural systems and evolving societal values. To meet this challenge, a robust, adaptive strategy should have a process for flexible implementation of incremental actions. We describe a hypothetical example for the Rio Grande de Arecibo watershed and coastal wetlands in Puerto Rico to address the first component. The process begins by identifying shared stakeholder objectives. This process benefits from a review of foundational research and knowledge base that includes global forcings and vulnerability of resources of interest. Forcings include climate change and pervasive urban sprawl. We focus on two taxonomic groups with differing life histories but strong dependence on water resource dynamics, another resource valued by humans. We stipulate objectives and multiple actions, but focus on those pertaining to hydro-management as the common thread in our example. We advanced two decision contexts of contrasting complexity, illustrated links between objectives and actions, and highlighted trade-offs triggered by varying resource valuation. Our focus was to highlight various components necessary to frame a resilience-based strategy, but we cannot overemphasize the importance of accommodating institutional and stakeholder changing priorities and values to ensure its successful implementation.

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red‐eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated‐detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit improved only marginally when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red‐eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. The weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicated that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change influencing the distributions of these species and, more importantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but our review of 18 years of ecological literature indicates that shielding practices vary across studies (when reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. We performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy of temperature observations from three commonly used portable data loggers (HOBO Pro, HOBO Pendant, and iButton hygrochron) housed in manufactured Gill shields or ad hoc, custom‐fabricated shields constructed from everyday materials such as plastic cups. We installed this sensor array (five replicates of 11 sensor‐shield combinations) at weather stations located in open and forested sites. HOBO Pro sensors with Gill shields were the most accurate devices, with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C relative to weather stations at each site. Error in ad hoc shield treatments ranged from 0.8 to 3.0°C, with the largest errors at the open site. We then deployed one replicate of each sensor‐shield combination at five sites that varied in the amount of urban impervious surface cover, which presents a further shielding challenge. Bias in sensors paired with ad hoc shields increased by up to 0.7°C for every 10% increase in impervious surface. Our results indicate that, due to variable shielding practices, the ecological literature likely includes highly biased temperature data that cannot be compared directly across studies. If left unaddressed, these errors will hinder efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. We call for greater standardization in how temperature data are recorded in the field, handled in analyses, and reported in publications.

Ecologists who specialize in translational ecology (TE) seek to link ecological knowledge to decision making by integrating ecological science with the full complement of social dimensions that underlie today's complex environmental issues. TE is motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision makers. This objective distinguishes it from both basic and applied ecological research and, as a practice, it deliberately extends research beyond theory or opportunistic applications. TE is uniquely positioned to address complex issues through interdisciplinary team approaches and integrated scientist–practitioner partnerships. The creativity and context-specific knowledge of resource managers, practitioners, and decision makers inform and enrich the scientific process and help shape use-driven, actionable science. Moreover, addressing research questions that arise from on-the-ground management issues – as opposed to the top-down or expert-oriented perspectives of traditional science – can foster the high levels of trust and commitment that are critical for long-term, sustained engagement between partners.

We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist requires specific attention to obtaining critical non-scientific disciplinary breadth and skills that are not typically gained through graduate-level education. Here, we outline a need for individuals with broad training in interdisciplinary skills, use our personal experiences as a basis for assessing the types of interdisciplinary skills that would benefit potential translational ecologists, and present steps that interested ecologists may take toward becoming translational. Skills relevant to translational ecologists may be garnered through personal experiences, informal training, short courses, fellowships, and graduate programs, among others. We argue that a translational ecology workforce is needed to bridge the gap between science and natural resource decisions. Furthermore, we argue that this task is a cooperative responsibility of individuals interested in pursuing these careers, educational institutions interested in training scientists for professional roles outside of academia, and employers seeking to hire skilled workers who can foster stakeholder-engaged decision making.

Author(s): Terando, Adam; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Meineke, Emily; Prado, Sara | Abstract: Linked Article: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3965.

Shaded coffee plantations are of conservation value for many taxa, particularly for resident avifauna in the face of extensive landscape changes. Yet, little is known about the value of coffee plantations for amphibians because there are scant demographic data to index their value among species with different habitat preferences. We estimated the probability of occupancy of three frog species: Eleutherodactylus wightmanae, a forest species; E. brittoni, a grassland species; and E. antillensis, an open habitat species. Occupancy was estimated in sun and shaded plantations, and in secondary forest, in the west-central mountains of Puerto Rico. We also estimated the probability that a survey station was occupied by no individuals, one, or >1 individual, as a proxy of abundance. The aforementioned parameters, and local colonization and extinction probability, were modeled as a function of weather conditions (temperature, humidity) and vegetation cover at the sampling station (5 m) and contextual (100...