1. A test of positive association for detecting heterogeneity in capture for capture-recapture data
- Author
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Thomas Bregnballe, Anita Jeyam, Roger Pradel, Rachel S. McCrea, Morten Frederiksen, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Department of Arctic Environment [Rockilde], Aarhus University [Aarhus]-National Environmental Research Institute [Danmark] (NERI), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), National Environmental Research Institute [Danmark] (NERI)-Aarhus University [Aarhus], Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Statistics and Probability ,Computer science ,Goodness-of-fit ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,Mark and recapture ,010104 statistics & probability ,Goodness of fit ,Statistics ,Econometrics ,Thalasseus sandvicensis ,QA276 ,Goodman–Kruskal’s gamma ,0101 mathematics ,Cormack–Jolly–Seber model ,Association (psychology) ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,General Environmental Science ,Applied Mathematics ,Sampling (statistics) ,Diagnostic test ,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Outcome (probability) ,Test (assessment) ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences - Abstract
The Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model assumes that all marked animals have equal recapture probabilities at each sampling occasion, but heterogeneity in capture often occurs and should be taken into account to avoid biases in parameter estimates. Although diagnostic tests are generally used to detect trap-dependence or transience and assess the overall fit of the model, heterogeneity in capture is not routinely tested for. In order to detect and identify this phenomenon in a CJS framework, we propose a test of positive association between previous and future encounters using Goodman–Kruskal’s gamma. This test is based solely on the raw capture histories and makes no assumption on model structure. The development of the test is motivated by a dataset of Sandwich terns (Thalasseus sandvicensis), and we use the test to formally show that they exhibit heterogeneity in capture. We use simulation to assess the performance of the test in the detection of heterogeneity in capture, compared to existing and corrected diagnostic goodness-of-fit tests, Leslie’s test of equal catchability and Carothers’ extension of the Leslie test. The test of positive association is easy to use and produces good results, demonstrating high power to detect heterogeneity in capture. We recommend using this new test prior to model fitting as the outcome will guide the model-building process and help draw more accurate biological conclusions. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary materials for this article are available at 10.1007/s13253-017-0315-4.
- Published
- 2018
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