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Any type of non-buoyant material in the ocean is transported horizontally by currents during its sinking journey. This lateral transport can be far from negligible for small sinking velocities. To estimate its magnitude and direction, the material is often modelled as a set of Lagrangian particles advected by current velocities that are obtained from Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). State-of-the-art OGCMs are strongly eddying, similar to the real ocean, providing results with a spatial resolution on the order of 10 km on a daily frequency. While the importance of eddies in OGCMs is well-appreciated in the physical oceanographic community, other marine research communities may not. Further, many long term climate modelling simulations (e.g. in paleoclimate) rely on lower spatial resolution models that do not capture mesoscale features. To demonstrate how much the absence of mesoscale features in low-resolution models influences the Lagrangian particle transport, we simulate the transport of sinking Lagrangian particles using low- and high-resolution global OGCMs, and assess the lateral transport differences resulting from the difference in spatial and temporal model resolution. We find major differences between the transport in the non-eddying OGCM and in the eddying OGCM. Addition of stochastic noise to the particle trajectories in the non-eddying OGCM parameterises the effect of eddies well in some cases (e.g. in the North Pacific gyre). The effect of a coarser temporal resolution (once every 5 days versus monthly) is smaller compared to a coarser spatial resolution (0.1° versus 1° horizontally). We recommend to use sinking Lagrangian particles, representing e.g. marine snow, microplankton or sinking plastic, only with velocity fields from eddying Eulerian OGCMs, requiring high-resolution models in e.g. paleoceanographic studies. To increase the accessibility of our particle trace simulations, we launch planktondrift.science.uu.nl, an online tool to reconstruct the surface origin of sedimentary particles in a specific location.

Microfossils from plankton are used for paleoceanographic reconstructions. An often‐made assumption in quantitative microplankton‐based paleoceanographic reconstructions is that sedimentary assemblages represent conditions of the directly overlying surface water. However, any immobile particle sinking down the water column is subjected to transport by three‐dimensional currents, which results in a lateral relocation along transport. We model dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) transport in a high‐resolution (0.1° horizontally) global model of the present‐day ocean and compare ocean conditions in the simulated origin of sedimentary particles to that in the directly overlying water. We find that the assumption that sedimentary particles represent the overlying surface waters is in most regions not valid. The bias induced by dinocyst transport depends on ocean current strength and direction, aggregation of particles which could increase the sinking speed, and the sediment sample depth. By using realistic sinking speeds of dinocysts and aggregates, extreme biases up to approximately ±16 °C warmer or ±4 PSU saltier are found, while other regions show lower bias from particle transport. Our model results provide a way to mechanistically and statistically explain the unexpected occurrences of some dinocyst species outside of their “normal” occurrence region, such as the northerly occurrence of the allegedly sea‐ice‐affiliated dinocyst Selenopemphix antarctica. Exclusion of such outlier occurrences will yield better constrained ecological affinites for dinocyst species, which has implications for microfossil‐based quantitative and qualitative proxies for paleoceanographic conditions. We recommend paleoceanographers to a priori evaluate the (paleo)water depth, oceanographic setting, current strength, and particle aggregation probability for their sedimentary microplankton assemblages.

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

It is well known that periodic forcing of a nonlinear system, even of a two-dimensional autonomous system, can produce chaotic responses with sensitive dependence on initial conditions if the forcing induces sufficient stretching and folding of the phase space. Quasiperiodic forcing can similarly produce chaotic responses, where the transition to chaos on changing a parameter can bring the system into regions of strange non-chaotic behaviour. Although it is generally acknowledged that the timings of Pleistocene ice ages are at least partly due to Milankovitch forcing (which may be approximated as quasiperiodic, with energy concentrated near a small number of frequencies), the precise details of what can be inferred about the timings of glaciations and deglaciations from the forcing is still unclear. In this paper, we perform a quantitative comparison of the response of several low-order nonlinear conceptual models for these ice ages to various types of quasiperiodic forcing. By computing largest Lyapunov exponents and mean periods, we demonstrate that many models can have a chaotic response to quasiperiodic forcing for a range of forcing amplitudes, even though some of the simplest conceptual models do not. These results suggest that pacing of ice ages to forcing may have only limited determinism.

Centennial climate variability appears in several long records of climate observables. Understanding the processes responsible for this internally generated variability can be achieved by a combination of more observational data and the definition of falsifiable criteria for specific physical mechanisms

A multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied simultaneously to tropical sea surface temperature (SST), zonal wind, and burstiness (zonal wind variability) reveals three significant oscillatory modes. They all show a strong ENSO signal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (PO) but also a substantial SST signal in the western Indian Ocean (IO). A correlation-based analysis shows that the western IO signal contains linearly independent information on ENSO. Of the three Indo-Pacific ENSO modes of the MSSA, one resembles a central Pacific (CP) El Niño, while the others represent eastern Pacific (EP) El Niños, which either start in the central Pacific and grow eastward (EPe) or start near Peru and grow westward (EPw). A composite analysis shows that EPw El Niños are preceded by cooling in the western IO about 15 months earlier. Two mechanisms are discussed by which the western IO might influence ENSO. In the atmospheric bridge mechanism, subsidence over the cool western IO in autumn (year 0) leads to enhanced convection above Indonesia, strengthening easterlies over the western PO, and the creation of a large warm water volume. This is essential for the creation of (EP) El Niños in the following spring–summer. In the state-dependent noise mechanism, a cool western IO favors a strong intraseasonal zonal wind variability over the western PO in early spring (year 1), which can partly be attributed to the Madden–Julian oscillation. This intraseasonal variability induces Kelvin waves, which in early spring lead to a strong warming of the eastern PO and can initiate EPw El Niños.

The timing and role in ocean circulation and climate of the opening of Southern Ocean gateways is as yet elusive. Recent micropalaeontological studies suggest the onset of westward throughflow of surface waters from the SW Pacific into the Australo-Antarctic Gulf through a southern shallow opening of the Tasman Gateway from 49–50 Ma onwards, a direction that is counter to the present-day eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Here, we present the first model results specific to the early-to-middle Eocene where, in agreement with the field evidence, southerly shallow opening of the Tasman Gateway indeed causes a westward flow across the Tasman Gateway. As a result, modelled estimates of dinoflagellate biogeography are in agreement with the recent findings. Crucially, in this situation where Australia is still situated far south and almost attached to Antarctica, the Drake Passage must be sufficiently restricted to allow the prevailing easterly wind pattern to set up this southerly restricted westward flow. In contrast, an open Drake Passage, up to 517 m deep, leads to an eastward flow, even when the Tasman Gateway and the Australo-Antarctic gulf are entirely contained within the latitudes of easterly wind.