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The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone., Rising sea level in the next century exposes the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to higher hazards from Alaskan tsunamis. By 2100, waves generated by an M8 Alaskan earthquake cause similar impacts in California to waves from an Alaskan M9 today.

Landslide dam outburst floods have a significant impact on landform evolution in high mountainous areas. Historic landslide dams on the Yigong River, southeastern Tibet, generated two outburst superfloods > 105 m3/s in 1902 and 2000 AD. One of the slackwater deposits, which was newly found immediately downstream of the historic dams, has been dated to 7 ka BP. The one-dimensional backwater stepwise method gives an estimate of 225,000 m3/s for the peak flow related to the paleo-stage indicator of 7 ka BP. The recurrence of at least three large landslide dam impoundments and super-outburst floods at the exit of Yigong Lake during the Holocene greatly changed the morphology of the Yigong River. More than 0.26 billion m3 of sediment has been aggraded in the dammed lake while the landslide sediment doubles the channel slope behind the dam. Repeated landslide damming may be a persistent source of outburst floods and impede the upstream migration of river knickpoints in the southeastern margin of Tibet.

The problems caused by the interaction between slopes and hydrologic environment in traffic civil engineering are very serious in the granite residual soil area of China, especially in Guangdong Province. Against the background of two heavy rainfall events occurring during a short period due to a typhoon making landfall twice or even two typhoons consecutively making landfall, laboratory model tests were carried out on the hydrological effects of the granite residual soil slope considering three vegetation types under artificial rainfall. The variation in slope surface runoff, soil moisture content and rain seepage over time was recorded during the tests. The results indicate that surface vegetation first effectively reduces the splash erosion impact of rainwater on slopes and then influences the slope hydrological effect through rainwater forms adjustment. (1) The exposed slope has weak resistance to two consecutive heavy rains, the degree of slope scouring and soil erosion damage will increase greatly during the second rainfall. (2) The multiple hindrances of the stem leaf of Zoysia japonica plays a leading role in regulating the hydrological effect of slope, the root system has little effect on the permeability and water storage capacity of slope soil, but improves the erosion resistance of it. (3) Both the stem leaf and root system of Nephrolepis cordifolia have important roles on the hydrological effect. The stem leaf can stabilize the infiltration of rainwater, and successfully inhibit the surface runoff under continuous secondary heavy rainfall. The root system significantly enhances the water storage capacity of the slope, and greatly increases the permeability of the slope soil in the second rainfall, which is totally different from that of the exposed and Zoysia japonica slopes. (4) Zoysia is a suitable vegetation species in terms of slope protection because of its comprehensive slope protection effect. Nephrolepis cordifolia should be cautiously planted as slope protection vegetation. Only on slopes with no stability issues should Nephrolepis cordifolia be considered to preserve soil and water.

Submarine landslides are major geohazards occurring on distinct seabed domains ranging from shallow coastal areas to the deeper points of the ocean. The nature and relief of the seabed are key factors influencing the location and size of submarine landslides. Efforts have recently been made to compile databases of submarine landslide distribution and morphometry, a crucial task to assess submarine geohazards. The MAGICLAND (Marine Geo-hazards Induced by underwater Landslides in the SW Iberian Margin) database here presented contributed to that assessment offshore Portugal. Based on EMODnet bathymetric DEMs and GIS analysis, the morphometric properties of 1552 submarine landslides were analysed and wealth of 40 parameters was obtained. This dataset is now made available for the free use and benefit of the international marine community. Further contributions or analysis based on, and complementing the MAGICLAND database will be welcome., Measurement(s) Morphometry of submarine landslides Technology Type(s) Geographic Information System Sample Characteristic - Environment continental margin • seamount Sample Characteristic - Location Northeast Atlantic Ocean coastal waters of the Iberian Peninsula Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.14484342

Around the world, numerous coastal boulders with weight of few thousand tons are suspected to have been transported by very large tsunamis, although their origins remain enigmatic. For clarifying origins of these boulders, the relation between the tsunami flow depth and the movement of meter-size boulders should be clarified but there is no proper field dataset. Here we collected first comprehensive dataset of both moved and unmoved boulders as well as the maximum flow depths along the Sanriku coast of Japan, where was affected by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami based on satellite image analyses and field survey. The dataset revealed that up to ca. 1500 tons of boulders and concrete blocks were moved by the 2011 tsunami with approx. 28 m flow depth. We further revealed that most unmoved boulders were not moved because of the local setting rather than their heavy weights. The threshold of moved/unmoved boulders is estimated against the flow depth. The threshold predicted that approx. > 20 m flow depths are required to move approx. > 1000 tons boulders. The results imply that even a few thousand tons of enigmatic boulders in the world could have been moved by these sizes of the tsunami flow depths, although applicability of our results to other examples should be evaluated in the future work. We further tested the validity of an earlier proposed inverse model. Although the model result is consistent with the field observation, assumption of the appropriate parameters is problematic and further improvement of the model is required to estimate hydrodynamic features of the tsunami and to discriminate tsunami boulders from storm ones. Regarding such future work, our dataset is expected to be important for the evaluation of the improved numerical models.

To unravel the relationship between earthquake and tsunami using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) changes, we analyzed two Chilean tsunamigenic subduction earthquakes: the 2014 Pisagua Mw 8.1 and the 2015 Illapel Mw 8.3. During the Pisagua earthquake, the TEC changes were detected at the GPS sites located to the north and south of the earthquake epicenter, whereas during the Illapel earthquake, we registered the changes only in the northward direction. Tide-gauge sites mimicked the propagation direction of tsunami waves similar to the TEC change pattern during both earthquakes. The TEC changes were represented by three signals. The initial weaker signal correlated well with Acoustic Rayleigh wave (AWRayleigh), while the following stronger perturbation was interpreted to be caused by Acoustic Gravity wave (AGWepi) and Internal Gravity wave (IGWtsuna) induced by earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis respectively. Inevitably, TEC changes can be utilized to evaluate earthquake occurrence and tsunami propagation within a framework of multi-parameter early warning systems.

Sliding liquefaction is considered to be the cause of high-speed and long-distance sliding of some homogeneous loess landslides in western China. However, there is still a lack of necessary experimental research and analysis on the effects of sliding liquefaction on these landslides. In this work, the effects of sliding liquefaction on irrigation-induced, high-speed and long-distance loess landslides on the South Jingyang Tableland area in China are studied by performing large-scale ring shear tests and using the sled mode. The results are as follows. (1) There are two kinds of long-runout sliding modes of loess landslides on the South Jingyang Tableland: sliding along the terrace surface and sliding within the saturated terrace alluvium, which is associated with sliding liquefaction. Both sliding modes can lead to long-runout sliding. (2) There are some differences in the inclination of the sliding surface between the two sliding modes. Based on the inclination of the sliding surface, the corresponding sliding mode can be distinguished. (3) Under the two sliding modes, the large shear mechanical properties of the two-layer soil composed of loess and alluvial sandy silt show significant differences. The friction between the loess and dry terrace alluvium increases with increasing normal stress and shear rate, while the friction between the loess and saturated terrace alluvium presents the opposite trend. The results show that the sliding distances under different sliding modes present opposite trends with the change in sliding speed. (4) Based on the test results from the ring shear tests and the morphological characteristics of the sliding surface, the sliding mode and sliding distance of a loess landslide can be identified and predicted.

A transcrustal mush system has been recognized beneath Dominica (Lesser Antilles) with different magma ponding zones that generated a series of pumiceous eruptions from Morne Trois Pitons–Micotrin volcano. Here, the latest, large, pumiceous eruption (Grand Fond - 24 kyrs cal BP) and four, smaller, Plinian eruptions (18-9 kyrs cal BP) are investigated. Pre-eruptive magma dynamics within the mush are unraveled through orthopyroxene phenocrysts by combining a Crystal System Analysis approach (on unzoned and zoned orthopyroxenes) and timescale estimates derived by intracrystalline Fe-Mg interdiffusion modeling. Two magmatic environments are recognized in the mush and have mixed, more or less vigorously, before the successive eruptions. Few interactions between the two magmas began 15-34 years prior to the small Plinian eruptions, but the sustained mixing occurred in the last 2 years. This contrasts with longer timescales (2-80 years) obtained for the larger eruption of Grand Fond with magmas stored deeper. These magma mixing timescales have significant implications for volcanic risk mitigation, with a growing reactivation signal that could be registered at the surface few years prior to the eruptions.

Volcanoes are traditionally considered isolated with an activity that is mostly independent of the surrounding, with few eruptions only (

Recent advances in satellite technologies, statistical and mathematical models, and computational resources have paved the way for operational use of satellite data in monitoring and forecasting natural hazards. We present a review of the use of satellite data for Earth observation in the context of geohazards preventive monitoring and disaster evaluation and assessment. We describe the techniques exploited to extract ground displacement information from satellite radar sensor images and the applicability of such data to the study of natural hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, volcanic activity, and ground subsidence. In this context, statistical techniques, ranging from time series analysis to spatial statistics, as well as continuum or discrete physics-based models, adopting deterministic or stochastic approaches, are irreplaceable tools for modeling and simulating natural hazards scenarios from a mathematical perspective. In addition to this, the huge amount of data collected nowadays and the complexity of the models and methods needed for an effective analysis set new computational challenges. The synergy among statistical methods, mathematical models, and optimized software, enriched with the assimilation of satellite data, is essential for building predictive and timely monitoring models for risk analysis.

形態: カラー図版あり, Physical characteristics: Original contains color illustrations, Accepted: 2021-04-26, 資料番号: PA2210054000

In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.

Large magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. We used established dendrochronological methods to develop a long-term (1867–2019) regional avalanche chronology for the Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana using tree-rings from 647 trees exhibiting 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We then used principal component analysis and a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to examine avalanche-climate relationships. Historically, large magnitude regional avalanche years were characterized by stormy winters with positive snowpack anomalies, with avalanche years over recent decades increasingly influenced by warmer temperatures and a shallow snowpack. The amount of snowpack across the region, represented by the first principal component, is shown to be directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017. As continued climate warming drives further regional snowpack reductions in the study region our results suggest a decreased probability of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency associated with winters characterized by large snowpacks and a potential increase in large magnitude events driven by warming temperatures and spring precipitation.

形態: カラー図版あり, Physical characteristics: Original contains color illustrations, Accepted: 2021-04-20, 資料番号: PA2210056000

Separated attenuation values have not been used in post-seismic variation research, although the scattering attenuation (Qs−1) parameter that can be used to estimate crustal inhomogeneity due to cracks. In this study, three earthquakes that occurred in Kumamoto (M7.3), Tottori (M6.6), and Gyeongju (M5.8) in 2016 were investigated by applying a multiple lapse time window analysis to seismograms recorded before and after the events. At a low frequency, significantly greater variation of the Qs−1 value was observed than the intrinsic attenuation (Qi−1) for the Kumamoto earthquake, whereas similarly large variation was observed for the Gyeongju earthquake. For the surrounding Kumamoto earthquake area of increased attenuation, even higher decreases in Qs–1 and Qi–1 were also observed. The increases occurred within a two year-period after mainshock. The large increases in attenuation, corresponding to regions with high peak ground acceleration, were limited to the basin area with an elevation below 500 m. Furthermore, post-seismic increases in attenuation values were found to correlate with the magnitude and length of the quiet periods of the earthquakes. From this study, Qs–1 and Qi–1 were shown as new parameters that can quantitatively measure the post-seismic deformation due to crustal earthquake.

Subsurface structure survey based on horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios is widely conducted. The major merit of this survey is its convenience to obtain a stable result using a single station. Spatial variations of H/V spectral ratios are well-known phenomena, and it has been used to estimate the spatial fluctuation in subsurface structures. It is reasonable to anticipate temporal variations in H/V spectral ratios, especially in areas like geothermal fields, carbon capture and storage fields, etc., where rich fluid flows are expected, although there are few reports about the temporal changes. In Okuaizu Geothermal Field (OGF), Japan, dense seismic monitoring was deployed in 2015, and continuous monitoring has been consistent. We observed the H/V spectral ratios in OGF and found their repeated temporary drops. These drops seemed to be derived from local fluid activities according to a numerical calculation. Based on this finding, we examined a coherency between the H/V spectral ratios and fluid activities in OGF and found a significance. In conclusion, monitoring H/V spectral ratios can enable us to grasp fluid activities that sometimes could lead to a relatively large seismic event.

The environmental pollution, property losses and casualties caused by wildfires in California are getting worse by the year. To minimize the interference of wildfires on economic and social development, and formulate targeted mitigation strategies, it is imperative to understand the scale and extent of previous wildfire occurrences. In this study, we first investigated the temporal distributions of past wildfires in California divided by size and causes and analyzed the changes observed in the past two decades against the last century. The trend of wildfires in different time scales (yearly and monthly), as well as the distribution of wildfires across different spatial scales (administrative units, climate divisions in California from 2000 to 2019) were also studied. Furthermore, to extract the significant variables on the risk of wildfire occurrence, multivariate analyses of environmental and human-related variables with wildfire densities were carried out. The results show that the wildfire density distribution of the burned area in California conforms to the characteristics of the Pareto distribution. Over the past two decades, the frequency of small (

Coastal communities in New Jersey (NJ), New York (NY), and Connecticut (CT) sustained huge structural loss during Sandy in 2012. We present a comprehensive science-based study to assess the role of coastal wetlands in buffering surge and wave in the tri-state by considering Sandy, a hypothetical Black Swan (BS) storm, and the 1% annual chance flood and wave event. Model simulations were conducted with and without existing coastal wetlands, using a dynamically coupled surge-wave model with two types of coastal wetlands. Simulated surge and wave for Sandy were verified with data at numerous stations. Structural loss estimated using real property data and latest damage functions agreed well with loss payout data. Results show that, on zip-code scale, the relative structural loss varies significantly with the percent wetland cover, the at-risk structural value, and the average wave crest height. Reduction in structural loss by coastal wetlands was low in Sandy, modest in the BS storm, and significant in the 1% annual chance flood and wave event. NJ wetlands helped to avoid 8%, 26%, 52% loss during Sandy, BS storm, and 1% event, respectively. This regression model can be used for wetland restoration planning to further reduce structural loss in coastal communities.

Sand flux is the key factor to determine the migration of sand dunes and the erosion to the surrounding environment. There are crescent-shaped sand dunes of various scales in the desert, and there are significant differences in spatial wind field and sand flux among them. However, due to the difficulty of monitoring, it is difficult to continuously observe the spatial wind field and sand flux around the larger crescentic dunes. On the basis of the Reynolds-Average Navier–Stokes (RA-NS) equation and the stress and sand flux model, the distribution of wind field and sand flux of a circular dune with a height of 4.2 m and a length of about 100 m during the four evolutionary periods of the evolution into a crescentic dune was simulated in this study. By comparing with the measured results, we verified that the closer to the leeward side, the more the simulated values of the velocity in wind field and sand flux were in line with the measured results. In order to further analyze the influence of the height of dune and other relevant parameters on sand flux, we simulated the influence on wind field and sand flux by changing the air viscosity and wind velocity of upper boundary. We found that the air viscosity mainly affected the amount of deposited sand on the leeward side of sand dune, while the increase of wind velocity would undoubtedly increase the sand flux of the whole sand dune. In addition, the simulation results also showed that the influence of changes in height of dune on the turbulent intensity of leeward side was very significant, and the turbulent intensity increased with the height of dune. The height changes of tall dunes gradually affected the transport of sand caused by wind flow behind the leeward side because that the rotation of the wind flow would form new vortexes at the large pores behind the leeward side, which would increase the turbulent energy in space and thus would increase the distance of migration of the lifting sand. While the low sand dunes could not form extra small vortexes at the bottom of the leeward side, so the wind velocity was small and the eddy currents behind the leeward side were more stable. The simulation results indicated that wind velocity was not the only reason for increasing the amount of sand flux, and the fluctuation of wind flow caused by turbulence could also stimulate the movement of sand particles on the ground.

Earthquakes are a consequence of the motions of the planet’s tectonic plates, yet predicting when and where they may occur, and how to prepare remain some of the shortcomings of using scientific knowledge to protect human life. A devastating Mw 7.0 earthquake on October 30, 2020, offshore Samos Island, Greece was a consequence of the Aegean and Anatolian upper crust being pulled apart by north–south extensional stresses resulting from slab rollback, where the African plate is subducting northwards beneath Eurasia, while the slab is sinking by gravitational forces, causing it to retreat southwards. Since the retreating African slab is coupled with the overriding plate, it tears the upper plate apart as it retreats, breaking it into numerous small plates with frequent earthquakes along their boundaries. Historical earthquake swarms and deformation of the upper plate in the Aegean have been associated with massive volcanism and cataclysmic devastation, such as the Mw 7.7 Amorgos earthquake in July 1956 between the islands of Naxos and Santorini (Thera). Even more notable was the eruption of Santorini 3650 years ago, which contributed to the fall of the Minoan civilization. The Samos earthquake highlights the long historical lack of appreciation of links between deep tectonic processes and upper crustal deformation and geological hazards, and is a harbinger of future earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, establishing a basis for studies to institute better protection of infrastructure and upper plate cultures in the region.

Mt. Baekdu’s eruption precursors are continuously observed and have become a global social issue. Volcanic activities in neighboring Japan are also active. There are no direct risks of proximity-related disasters in South Korea from the volcanic eruptions at Japan or Mt. Baekdu; however, severe impacts are expected from the spread of volcanic ash. Numerical analysis models are generally used to predict and analyze the diffusion of volcanic ash, and each numerical analysis model has its own limitations caused by the computational algorithm it employs. In this study, we analyzed the PUFF–UAF model, an ash dispersion model based on the Lagrangian approach, and observed that the number of particles used in tracking substantially affected the results. Even with the presence of millions of particles, the concentration of ash predicted by the PUFF–UAF model does not accurately represent the dispersion. To overcome this deficit and utilize the computational efficiency of the Lagrangian model, we developed a PUFF–Gaussian model to consider the dispersive nature of ash by applying the Gaussian dispersion theory to the results of the PUFF–UAF model. The results of the proposed method were compared with the field measurements from actual volcanic eruptions, and the comparison showed that the proposed method can produce reasonably accurate predictions for ash dispersion.

This article presents a new open source extension to the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) that allows researchers, for the first time, to explore and make use of subnational, geocoded data on major disasters triggered by natural hazards. The Geocoded Disasters (GDIS) dataset provides spatial geometry in the form of GIS polygons and centroid latitude and longitude coordinates for each administrative entity listed as a disaster location in the EM-DAT database. In total, GDIS contains spatial information on 39,953 locations for 9,924 unique disasters occurring worldwide between 1960 and 2018. The dataset facilitates connecting the EM-DAT database to other geographic data sources on the subnational level to enable rigorous empirical analyses of disaster determinants and impacts., Measurement(s) geographic location • geocoded disaster locations Technology Type(s) digital curation • geocoding Factor Type(s) year that the disaster has occurred Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location global • subnational administrative areas Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.13177022

An autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) was deployed in Lake Biwa from 2000 to 2012. In December 2009, ebullition of turbid water was first found in the deepest area (> 90 m) of the North Basin. Follow-up investigations in April and December 2010 and January 2012 confirmed the existence of benthic vents similar to the vents observed in other deep lakes. Importantly, vent numbers per unit travel distance in Lake Biwa dramatically increased from only two vents (0.37 vents km−1) in December 2009 to 54 vents (5.28 vents km−1) in January 2012, which could be related to recent tectonic activity in Japan, e.g., the M9.1 Tohoku earthquake in March 2011 and slow earthquakes along the Nankai Trough from 2006 to 2018. Continuous back-up investigations from 2014 to 2019 revealed additional benthic vents in the same area. The sudden increase in benthic vent activity (liquid and gaseous ebullitions) have significant potential to alter lake biogeochemistry and, ultimately, degrade Japan’s major drinking water source and may be a harbinger of major crustal change in the near future.

The 7.8 Mw earthquake that struck Nepal on April 25th, 2015 triggered over 21,000 landslides over an area of more than 25,000 km2. These landslides contributed to mass wasting, partially compensating the tectonic uplift by the earthquake. In this paper we quantify the volume balance resulting from the 2015 earthquake uplift (or subsidence) and landslide erosion. Starting from a new complete earthquake-induced landslide inventory, we calculated landslide volume by adopting different strategies for low-mobility and high-mobility landslides, considering also the potential supply of sediments to the drainage network. The results show that the contribution of earthquake-induced landslides to erosion is about one order of magnitude smaller than the vertical coseismic displacement. We found landslide volume values, due to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, ranging between 251 (− 15/ + 16) Mm3 up to 1503 (− 183/ + 210) Mm3 based on the adopted method, and a volume due to coseismic vertical displacement of 2134 (± 1269) Mm3 for the whole area. The volume balance of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is strongly dominated by tectonic displacement. We show that these estimates depend on several uncertainties. We identified and quantified uncertainties related to: (1) the choice of empirical volume-area scaling relationships and their parameters; (2) the completeness and quality of landslide inventory through comparison with available inventories; (3) the approach adopted for the assessment of elongated landslide volume; (4) the InSAR displacement data.

Sandy beaches are highly dynamic systems which provide natural protection from the impact of waves to coastal communities. With coastal erosion hazards predicted to increase globally, data to inform decision making on erosion mitigation and adaptation strategies is becoming critical. However, multi-temporal topographic data over wide geographical areas is expensive and time consuming and often requires highly trained professionals. In this study we demonstrate a novel approach combining citizen science with low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles that reliably produces survey-grade morphological data able to model sediment dynamics from event to annual scales. The high-energy wave-dominated coast of south-eastern Australia, in Victoria, is used as a field laboratory to test the reliability of our protocol and develop a set of indices to study multi-scale erosional dynamics. We found that citizen scientists provide unbiased data as accurate as professional researchers. We then observed that open-ocean beaches mobilise three times as much sediment as embayed beaches and distinguished between slowed and accelerated erosional modes. The data was also able to assess the efficiency of sand nourishment for shore protection. Our citizen science protocol provides high quality monitoring capabilities, which although subject to important legislative preconditions, it is applicable in other parts of the world and transferable to other landscape systems where the understanding of sediment dynamics is critical for management of natural or anthropogenic processes.

This paper assesses the emergency capacity of rain-flood disaster in provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), China, from 2013 to 2017. In this study, the evaluation index system of emergency capacity on rain-flood disaster was built from the economic-social and environmental-natural aspects, and spatial auto-correlation analysis was used to analyze spatial differentiation characteristics of the emergency capacity. Then, the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was used to analyze the influence mechanism of the development level of economic-social factors (ESF) subsystem, environmental-natural factors (ENF) subsystem and the coupling level of these two subsystems on the emergency capacity of rain-flood disaster in provinces. The findings show that the emergency capacity distribution of rain-flood disaster in the YREB presented a “decreasing” spatial pattern of eastern, central and western regions. The development of two subsystems has produced spatial spillover effect and diffusion effect on the neighboring areas. There was a high coupling degree between these two subsystems in the YREB. Although spillover effect existed in space, the spillover did not depend on economic distance.

Present work studied the lesion mechanism of coastal clam and its vulnerability assessment subject to the hydrodynamic disturbance of extreme storm events. A clam habitat at the northeast coast of China was chosen for the demonstration study. Relocation failure after passive transport due to excessive substrate erosion or suffocation in anoxic burial under overburdening sedimentation was identified the major cause of negative biomass responses during the storm. Based on the biological propensity and physiological sensitivity of the clam, a tunable loss probability function correlating the mortality with the shell length and the seabed change was proposed. A hydrodynamic model was then adopted to compute the sediment transport and net changes in the seafloor in response to the comprehensive process of storm waves and surge. The spatial distribution of the damage states was evaluated based on the numerical results incorporating the loss probability function. The estimated damage was mainly concentrated along the wave shoaling and breaking belts parallel to the shoreline. High surge levels pushed the “damage belt” shoreward, in which case large waves were able to propagate close to the shoreline before breaking. The scientific findings are helpful to better understand the vulnerability of the clam habitat to the storm disturbance. The study result as well provides a practical methodology of the storm risk assessment for benthic communities in broader ecological and geophysical scopes. The methodology are expected to be further validated and improved by more widespread sampling on coastal ecosystem or mariculture that will withstand future storms.

Drought refers to a meteorological disaster that causes insufficient soil moisture and damage to crop water balance due to long-term lack of precipitation. With the increasing shortage of water resources, drought has become one of the hot issues of global concern. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) can effectively reflect the changes in drought characteristics of different geomorphologies in Sichuan on time and space scales, to explore the difference in drought characteristics between different physiognomy types in Sichuan Province, We calculated the SPI and SPEI values based on the data of 44 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2019 and used Mann–Kendall trend test and multivariable linear regression method (MLR) to quantify the significance of the drought characteristic trends at different time and space scales. The results as follow: (1) The SPEI drought trend in plain and hilly regions was greater than that in plateau and mountain regions on all time scales (− 0.039 year−1 for 1-month in hilly, − 0.035 year−1 for 1-month in plain, − 0.14 year−1 for 1-month in plateau, − 0.026 year−1 for 1-month in mountain) and the magnitude of trend of eastern (− 4.4 to 0.1 year−1) was lager than western (− 2.1 to 2.7 year−1), means that the drought trends transfer from northwest to east. (2) The drought intensity in the western region gradually increased (0.54–1.05) and drought events mainly occurred in the southwest plateau and central mountainous regions (24–47 times), means that drought meteorological hotspots were mainly concentrated in the Sichuan basin. (3) The MLR indicated altitude (H) is not the main influencing factor that causes the spatial unevenness of precipitation in Sichuan Province, but altitude (H), temperature (T), longitude (Lo) and latitude (La) can co-determined the precipitation. The results of this study are instructive and practical for drought assessment, risk management and application decision-making in Sichuan Province, and have guiding significance for agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and agricultural irrigation in Sichuan Province.

Loess covers approximately 6.6% of China and forms thick extensive deposits in the northern and northwestern parts of the country. Natural erosional processes and human modification of thick loess deposits have produced abundant, potentially unstable steep slopes in this region. Slope deformation monitoring aimed at evaluating the mechanical behavior of a loess slope has shown a cyclic pattern of contraction and expansion. Such cyclic strain change on the slope materials can damage the loess and contribute to slope instability. The site showing this behavior is a 70-m high loess slope near Yan’an city in Shanxi Province, northwest China. A Ground-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-SAR) sensor and a displacement meter were used to monitor this cyclic deformation of the slope over a one-year period from September 2018 to August 2019. It is postulated that this cyclic behavior corresponds to thermal and moisture fluctuations, following energy conservation laws. To investigate the validity of this mechanism, physical models of soil temperature and moisture measured by hygrothermographs were used to simulate the observed cyclic deformations. We found good correlations between the models based on the proposed mechanism and the exhibited daily and annual cyclic contraction and expansion. The slope absorbed energy from the time of maximum contraction to the time of maximum expansion, and released energy from the time of maximum expansion to the time of maximum contraction. Recoverable cyclic deformations suggest stresses in the loess are within the elastic range, and non-recoverable cyclic deformations suggest damage of the loess material (breakage of bonds between soil grains), which could lead to instability. Based on these observations and the models, we developed a quantitative relationship between weather cycles and thermal deformation of the slope. Given the current climate change projections of temperature increases of up to 3.5 °C by 2100, the model estimates the loess slope to expand about 0.35 mm in average, which would be in addition to the current cyclic “breathing” behavior experienced by the slope.

High quality laboratory measurements of nearshore waves and morphology change at, or near prototype-scale are essential to support new understanding of coastal processes and enable the development and validation of predictive models. The DynaRev experiment was completed at the GWK large wave flume over 8 weeks during 2017 to investigate the response of a sandy beach to water level rise and varying wave conditions with and without a dynamic cobble berm revetment, as well as the resilience of the revetment itself. A large array of instrumentation was used throughout the experiment to capture: (1) wave transformation from intermediate water depths to the runup limit at high spatio-temporal resolution, (2) beach profile change including wave-by-wave changes in the swash zone, (3) detailed hydro and morphodynamic measurements around a developing and a translating sandbar., Measurement(s) surf zone waves • swash hydrodynamics • surf zone flow velocity • morphology • sediment Technology Type(s) Gauge or Meter Device • Lidar • velocimetry • mechanical profiler • optical backscatter sensor • Pressure transducers Factor Type(s) Wave height • Wave period • beach morphology Sample Characteristic - Environment beach • shingle beach Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.13194872

A seafloor geomagnetic observatory in the northwest Pacific has provided very long vector geomagnetic time-series. It was found that the time-series include significant magnetic signals generated by a few giant tsunami events including the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. Here we report that the tsunami-generated magnetic fields consist of the weak but first arriving field, and the strong but second arriving field—similar to the P- and S-waves in seismology. The latter field is a result of coupling between horizontal particle motions of the conductive seawater and the vertical component of the background geomagnetic main field, which have been studied well so far. On the other hand, the former field stems from coupling between vertical particle motions and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic main field parallel to tsunami propagation direction. The former field has been paid less attention because horizontal particle motions are dominant in the Earth’s oceans. It, however, was shown that not only the latter but also the former field is significant especially around the magnetic equator where the vertical component of the background magnetic field vanishes. This implies that global tsunami early warning using tsunami-generated magnetic fields is possible even in the absence of the background vertical geomagnetic component.

Droughts are complex natural phenomena that influence society's development in different aspects; therefore, monitoring their behavior and future trends is a useful task to assist the management of natural resources. In addition, the use of satellite-estimated rainfall data emerges as a promising tool to monitor these phenomena in large spatial domains. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products have been validated in several studies and stand out among the available products. Therefore, this work seeks to evaluate TRMM-estimated rainfall data's performance for monitoring the behavior and spatiotemporal trends of meteorological droughts over Paraíba State, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) from 1998 to 2017. Then, 78 rain gauge-measured and 187 TRMM-estimated rainfall time series were used, and trends of drought behavior, duration, and severity at eight time scales were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall and Sen tests. The results show that the TRMM-estimated rainfall data accurately captured the pattern of recent extreme rainfall events that occurred over Paraíba State. Drought events tend to be drier, longer-lasting, and more severe in most of the state. The greatest inconsistencies between the results obtained from rain gauge-measured and TRMM-estimated rainfall data are concentrated in the area closest to the coast. Furthermore, long-term drought trends are more pronounced than short-term drought, and the TRMM-estimated rainfall data correctly identified this pattern. Thus, TRMM-estimated rainfall data are a valuable source of data for identifying drought behavior and trends over much of the region.

Spatio-temporal variations in fire weather conditions are presented based on various data sets, with consistent approaches applied to help enable seamless services over different time scales. Recent research on this is shown here, covering climate change projections for future years throughout this century, predictions at multi-week to seasonal lead times and historical climate records based on observations. Climate projections are presented based on extreme metrics with results shown for individual seasons. A seasonal prediction system for fire weather conditions is demonstrated here as a new capability development for Australia. To produce a more seamless set of predictions, the data sets are calibrated based on quantile-quantile matching for consistency with observations-based data sets, including to help provide details around extreme values for the model predictions (demonstrating the quantile matching for extremes method). Factors influencing the predictability of conditions are discussed, including pre-existing fuel moisture, large-scale modes of variability, sudden stratospheric warmings and climate trends. The extreme 2019–2020 summer fire season is discussed, with examples provided on how this suite of calibrated fire weather data sets was used, including long-range predictions several months ahead provided to fire agencies. These fire weather data sets are now available in a consistent form covering historical records back to 1950, long-range predictions out to several months ahead and future climate change projections throughout this century. A seamless service across different time scales is intended to enhance long-range planning capabilities and climate adaptation efforts, leading to enhanced resilience and disaster risk reduction in relation to natural hazards.

The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relatively minor changes at Puʻu ʻŌʻō to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano. Eruption forecasting is inherently challenging in cascading scenarios where magmatic systems may prime gradually and trigger on small events.

The removal of dams and reservoirs may seem to be an unforeseen and sometimes controversial step in water management. The removal of barriers may be different for each country or region, as each differs greatly in terms of politics, economy and social and cultural awareness. This paper addresses the complex problem of removing dams on rivers and their connected reservoirs. We demonstrate the scales of the changes, including their major ecological, economic, and social impacts. Arguments and approaches to this problem vary across states and regions, depending on the political system, economy and culture, as confirmed by the qualitative and quantitative intensities of the dam removal process and its global geographical variation. The results indicate that the removal of dams on rivers and their connected reservoirs applies predominantly to smaller structures (

Barrier island overwash occurs when the elevation of wave runup exceeds the dune crest and induces landward transport of sediment across a barrier island and deposition of a washover deposit. Washover deposition is generally attributed to major storms, is important for the maintenance of barrier island resilience to sea-level rise and is used to extend hurricane records beyond historical accounts by reconstructing the frequency and extent of washover deposits preserved in the sedimentary record. Here, we present a high-fidelity 3-year record of washover evolution and overwash at a transgressive barrier island site. During the first year after establishment, washover volume and area increased 1595% and 197%, respectively, from at least monthly overwash. Most of the washover accretion resulted from the site morphology having a low resistance to overwash, as opposed to being directly impacted by major storms. Washover deposits can accrete landward over multi-year time scales in the absence of large storms; therefore, paleotempestites can be more complex than single event beds.

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.

The feedback between dyke and sill intrusions and the evolution of stresses within volcanic systems is poorly understood, despite its importance for magma transport and volcano instability. Long-lived ocean island volcanoes are crosscut by thousands of dykes, which must be accommodated through a combination of flank slip and visco-elastic deformation. Flank slip is dominant in some volcanoes (e.g., Kilauea), but how intrusions are accommodated in other volcanic systems remains unknown. Here we apply digital mapping techniques to collect > 400,000 orientation and aperture measurements from 519 sheet intrusions within Volcán Taburiente (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain) and investigate their emplacement and accommodation. We show that vertically ascending dykes were deflected to propagate laterally as they approached the surface of the volcano, forming a radial dyke swarm, and propose a visco-elastic model for their accommodation. Our model reproduces the measured dyke-aperture distribution and predicts that stress accumulates within densely intruded regions of the volcano, blocking subsequent dykes and causing eruptive activity to migrate. These results have significant implications for the organisation of magma transport within volcanic edifices, and the evolution and stability of long-lived volcanic systems.

Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-year flood) plus a freeboard. This recommendation neglects many uncertainties. Here we analyze a case-study of riverine flood risk management using a multi-objective robust decision-making framework in the face of deep uncertainties. While the quantitative results are location-specific, the approach and overall insights are generalizable. We find strong interactions between the economic, engineering, and Earth science uncertainties, illustrating the need for expanding on previous integrated analyses to further understand the nature and strength of these connections. Considering deep uncertainties surrounding flood hazards, the discount rate, the house lifetime, and the fragility can increase the economically optimal house elevation to values well above FEMA’s recommendation., This study investigates the effects of uncertainties on the decision of how high to elevate a house in flood-prone areas. Accounting for several uncertainties suggests avenues on how to improve guidelines from FEMA.

With the rapid development of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and its wide applications to atmospheric science research, the global ionosphere map (GIM) total electron content (TEC) data are extensively used as a potential tool to detect ionospheric disturbances related to seismic activity and they are frequently used to statistically study the relation between the ionosphere and earthquakes (EQs). Indeed, due to the distribution of ground based GPS receivers is very sparse or absent in large areas of ocean, the GIM-TEC data over oceans are results of interpolation between stations and extrapolation in both space and time, and therefore, they are not suitable for studying the marine EQs. In this paper, based on the GIM-TEC data, a statistical investigation of ionospheric TEC variations of 15 days before and after the 276 M ≥ 6.0 inland EQs is undertaken. After eliminating the interference of geomagnetic activities, the spatial and temporal distributions of the ionospheric TEC disturbances before and after the EQs are investigated and compared. There are no particularly distinct features in the time distribution of the ionospheric TEC disturbances before the inland EQs. However, there are some differences in the spatial distribution, and the biggest difference is precisely in the epicenter area. On the other hand, the occurrence rates of ionospheric TEC disturbances within 5 days before the EQs are overall higher than those after EQs, in addition both of them slightly increase with the earthquake magnitude. These results suggest that the anomalous variations of the GIM-TEC before the EQs might be related to the seismic activities.

Most snow avalanches occur unobserved, which becomes particularly dramatic when human lives are involved. Seismological observations can be helpful to unravel time and dynamics of unseen events, like the deadly avalanche of January 18, 2017, that hit a Resort-hotel at Rigopiano in the Abruzzi (Italy). Particle motion analysis and spectrograms from data recorded by a close seismic broadband station, calculation of synthetic seismograms, as well as simulation of the flow, allowed us to construct the dynamics of the snow avalanche that buried alive 40 people, killing 29. Due to the bad weather conditions, no visual observation was made, thus making it impossible to determine the exact moment of the avalanche and to report necessary observations of the dramatic event. On-site inspections revealed that the hotel was horizontally cut by shear forces and dislocated by 48 m in 70°N direction, once the increasing avalanche pressure exceeded the structural shear strength of the building. Within an eligible 24 min time range of the avalanche, we found three weak seismic transients, starting at 15:42:38 UTC, recorded by the nearest operating station GIGS located in the Gran Sasso underground laboratory approximately 17 km away. Particle motion analysis of the strongest seismic avalanche signal, as well as of the synthetic seismograms match best when assuming a single force seismic source, attacking in direction of 120°N. Simulation of the avalanche dynamics—calculated by using a 2D rapid mass movement simulator—indicates that the seismic signals were rather generated as the avalanche flowed through a narrow and twisting canyon directly above the hotel. Once the avalanche enters the canyon it is travelling at maximum velocity (37 m/s) and is twice strongly deflected by the rock sidewalls. These impacts created a distinct linearly polarized seismic “avalanche transient”s that can be used to time the destruction of the hotel. Our results demonstrate that seismic recordings combined with simulations of mass movements are indispensable to remotely monitor snow avalanches.

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

In absence of soil erosion plots for determination of erodibility index (K) for erosion models like Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) or Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate soil erosion, empirical relations are used. In the present study, soil erodibility index was determined for entire Ri-bhoi district of Meghalaya based on soil physical and chemical properties through empirical relationship and presented in a map form. Dominant land uses of the district were identified through geo-spatial tools which were viz. agriculture, forest, jhum land and wasteland. Soil samples from surface depth (01–15 cm) were collected from areas of different dominant land uses. Twenty five sampling points were selected under each land use type and geo-coded them on the base map of Ri-bhoi district. Apart from K-index, Clay Ratio, Modified Clay Ratio and Critical Soil Organic Matter were also determined for understanding the effect of primary soil particles on erodibility. In agriculture land use system K-index values were found in the range of 0.08–0.41 with an average of 0.25 ± 0.02. In case of jhum, forest and wasteland these were in the range of 0.08–0.42 with an average of 0.20 ± 0.01; 0.09–0.40 with an average of 0.22 ± 0.02, and 0.10–0.34 with an average value of 0.23 ± 0.02, respectively. Clay ratio (2.74) and Modified clay ratio (2.41) were observed to be higher in forest LUS, lower clay ratio (1.97) and modified clay ratio (1.81) were found in the wasteland indicating erosion susceptibility in forested area. The values of Critical Level of Organic Matter (CLOM) for the district ranged from 4.72 to 16.56. Out of 100 samples, only one sample had CLOM value less than 5 and rest 99 samples had values more than 5 indicating that the soils of the district had moderate to stable soil structure and offer resistance to erosion. All the indices values of geo-coded points were then interpolated in the Arc-GIS environment to produce land use based maps for Ri-bhoi district of Meghalaya. As K-index is a quantitative parameter which is used in models, the index can be then interpolated for estimation of soil erosion through USLE or RUSLE for any given situation.

Exposure to extreme events is a major concern in coastal regions where growing human populations and stressed natural ecosystems are at significant risk to such phenomena. However, the complex sequence of processes that transform an event from notable to extreme can be challenging to identify and hence, limit forecast abilities. Here, we show an extreme heat content event (i.e., a marine heatwave) in coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico resulted from compounding effects of a tropical storm followed by an atmospheric heatwave. This newly identified process of generating extreme ocean temperatures occurred prior to landfall of Hurricane Michael during October of 2018 and, as critical contributor to storm intensity, likely contributed to the subsequent extreme hurricane. This pattern of compounding processes will also exacerbate other environmental problems in temperature-sensitive ecosystems (e.g., coral bleaching, hypoxia) and is expected to have expanding impacts under global warming predictions., Exposure to extreme events is a major concern in coastal regions where human populations and stressed ecosystems are at risk to such phenomena. Here the authors show a marine heatwave on the continental shelf resulted from a novel set of compounding effects due to a tropical storm followed by an atmospheric heatwave.

Collapse of permafrost coasts delivers large quantities of particulate organic carbon (POC) to Arctic coastal areas. With rapidly changing environmental conditions, sediment and organic carbon (OC) mobilization and transport pathways are also changing. Here, we assess the sources and sinks of POC in the highly dynamic nearshore zone of Herschel Island‐Qikiqtaruk (Yukon, Canada). Our results show that POC concentrations sharply decrease, from 15.9 to 0.3 mg L−1, within the first 100–300 m offshore. Simultaneously, radiocarbon ages of POC drop from 16,400 to 3,600 14C years, indicating rapid settling of old permafrost POC to underlying sediments. This suggests that permafrost OC is, apart from a very narrow resuspension zone (, Key Points Suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) sharply decreases in age and concentration within the nearshore zoneBeyond a narrow resuspension zone, permafrost‐derived OC dominates surface sediments, whereas much younger OC is found in the water columnPermafrost‐derived POC is rapidly removed from the water column, showing the critical role of nearshore dynamics for OC transport

Earthquake insurance can be a useful tool to build more sustainable societies and disaster-resilient communities. However, the coverage is not common in many countries. This article aims to contribute to the literature through an empirical analysis of the online interest in earthquake insurance through Google Trends. The proposed methodology implies to move from a top-down conceptual approach to a bottom-up/data-enabled one. It allows us to explore potential triggers and dynamic patterns of online interest in earthquake insurance at daily time-scale through the lens of Big Data. In order to validate the methodology, the article considers Italy as a test area. For this country, where the coverage rate is low, we fuse multiple databases to create 16-year daily time series of public search activities about the insurance in Italy and analyse it with other data sources. As a result, the peak analysis shows a connection with the occurrences of large domestic earthquakes, overseas earthquakes, and policy decisions, which create time windows of opportunities for insurers and policymakers to boost the public’s motivation towards the coverages. The research outcomes suggest that the data-enabled approach can additionally be applied in other countries where the coverage rate is low and stakeholders are facing the challenge to strive against earthquake under-insurance.

The use of strongly biased data generally leads to large distortions in a trained machine learning model. We face this problem when constructing a predictor for earthquake-generated ground-motion intensity with machine learning. The machine learning predictor constructed in this study has an underestimation problem for strong motions, although the data fit on relatively weak ground motions is good. This underestimation problem is caused by the strong bias in available ground-motion records; there are few records of strong motions in the dataset. Therefore, we propose a hybrid approach of machine learning and conventional ground-motion prediction equation. This study demonstrates that this hybrid approach machine learning technology and physical model reduces the underestimation of strong motions and leads to better prediction than either of the individual approaches applied alone.

Ground deformation can cause serious environmental issues such as infrastructure damage, ground compaction, and reducing the ground capacity to store water. Mashhad, as one of the largest and most populated cities in the Middle East, has been suffering from extreme subsidence. In the last decade, some researchers have been interested in measuring land subsidence rates in the Mashhad valley by InSAR techniques. However, most of those studies were based on inaccurate measurements introducing uncertainties in the resulting subsidence rates. These researches used a small number of EnviSat data with long perpendicular and inhomogeneous temporal baseline. This paper seeks to determine the subsidence rate in urban areas of Mashhad in recent years, the threat that was neglected by the city managers and decision-makers. For this purpose, the Persistent Scatterer InSAR technique was applied in the study area using two time-series of descending and ascending Sentinel-1A acquisitions between 2014 and 2017. The results demonstrated the maximum line-of-sight deformation rate of 14.6 cm/year and maximum vertical deformation (subsidence) rate about 19.1 cm/year which could have irreversible consequences. The results were assessed and validated using piezometric data, GPS stations, and geotechnical properties. This assessment confirms that the main reason for subsidence in the interested area is groundwater over-extraction. Also, investigation of geotechnical properties shows that thick fine-grained layers in the northwest of the city could strongly affect the results. At the end of this paper, a new simplified method was proposed to estimate specific storage in special cases to predict the subsidence rate.

The southwest Pacific (SWP) region is vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) related impacts which adversely affect people, infrastructure and economies across several nations and territories. Skilful TC outlooks are needed for this region, but the erratic nature of SWP TCs and the complex ocean–atmosphere interactions that influence TC behaviour on seasonal timescales presents significant challenges. Here, we present a new TC outlook tool for the SWP using multivariate Poisson regression with indices of multiple climate modes. This approach provides skilful, island-scale TC count outlooks from July (four months ahead of the official TC season start in November). Monthly island-scale TC frequency outlooks are generated between July and December, enabling continuous refinement of predicted TC counts before and during a TC season. Use of this approach in conjunction with other seasonal climate guidance (including dynamical models) has implications for preparations ahead of severe weather events, resilience and risk reduction.

A comprehensive analysis of the state of air inside an industrial workshop with electroplating production was carried out. The data of quantitative distribution of suspended particles by size fractions (PM0.3, PM0.5, PM1, PM3, PM5, PM10) are presented for 15 main processes of electroplating. Morphometric and chemical composition of the surface of particles were studied. We observed particles of rounded shape, various agglomerates with complex geometric shapes, acute-angular particles, which when inhaled pose a maximum threat to human health. Chemical analysis of these particles showed an absolute predominance of oxides of non-ferrous metals, the percentage of which varied depending on the type of electroplating bath. The content of highly hazardous substances of the 1st (Zn, Pb, and Cd) and the 2nd (Cu, Cr, Ni, Co, and Mo) hazard classes in each sample was recorded.