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1. Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase

Author: Jason Lowe, Andrew J. Challinor, Timothy J. Osborn, and Nigel W. Arnell
Subjects: Return period, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global temperature, Natural resource economics, business.industry, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Global warming, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Hydrology (agriculture), Agriculture, Environmental science, Mean radiant temperature, business, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The assessment of the impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming helps inform national and international policy discussion around mitigation targets. This paper provides consistent estimates of global and regional impacts and risks at increases in global mean temperature up to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels, for over 30 indicators representing temperature extremes and heatwaves, hydrological change, floods and droughts and proxies for impacts on crop yields. At the global scale, all the impacts that could plausibly be either adverse or beneficial are adverse, and impacts and risks increase with temperature change. For example, the global average chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% in 1981–2010 to 28% at 1.5 °C and 92% at 4 °C, of an agricultural drought increases from 9 to 24% at 1.5 °C and 61% at 4 °C, and of the 50-year return period river flood increases from 2 to 2.4% at 1.5 °C and 5.4% at 4 °C. The chance of a damaging hot spell for maize increases from 5 to 50% at 4 °C, whilst the chance for rice rises from 27 to 46%. There is considerable uncertainty around these central estimates, and impacts and risks vary between regions. Some impacts—for example heatwaves—increase rapidly as temperature increases, whilst others show more linear responses. The paper presents estimates of the risk of impacts exceeding specific targets and demonstrates that these estimates are sensitive to the thresholds used.
Published: 2019
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2. Invited review: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agriculture, and food—A case of shifting cultivation and history

Author: Pete Smith, Pierre Martre, Stuart Mark Howden, Andrew J. Challinor, Christian Bugge Henriksen, John R. Porter, Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg (GU), University of Leeds, Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University, Australian National University (ANU), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, and Agropolis Fondation
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Crops, Agricultural, 0106 biological sciences, Livestock, Mitigation policy, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate Change, Climate change, adaptation, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Food Supply, mitigation, Shifting cultivation, Animals, Humans, Environmental Chemistry, Adaptation, SolACEWP1, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, Ecology, IPCC, business.industry, Agriculture, food security, 15. Life on land, Impact, climate change, Geography, 13. Climate action, impact, Food processing, business, Working group, [SDV.AEN]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Food and Nutrition, policy
Abstract: International audience; Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.
Published: 2019
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3. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Author: Mohamed Jabloun, Pierre Martre, Garry O'Leary, Dominique Ripoche, Bruno Basso, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Daniel Wallach, Matthew P. Reynolds, Marijn van der Velde, John R. Porter, Heidi Webber, Enli Wang, Frank Ewert, Joost Wolf, Christian Klein, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Margarita Garcia-Vila, M. Ali Babar, Pierre Stratonovitch, Yujing Gao, Glenn J. Fitzgerald, Davide Cammarano, Bing Liu, Peter J. Thorburn, Fulu Tao, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Christine Girousse, Zhigan Zhao, Christoph Müller, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Jørgen E. Olesen, Elias Fereres, Iwan Supit, Andrea Maiorano, Marco Bindi, Sebastian Gayler, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Giacomo De Sanctis, Alex C. Ruane, Rosella Motzo, Juraj Balkovic, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Roberto Ferrise, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Benjamin Dumont, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Mukhtar Ahmed, Senthold Asseng, Thilo Streck, Yan Zhu, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Katharina Waha, Ahmed M. S. Kheir, Taru Palosuo, Liujun Xiao, Sara Minoli, Eckart Priesack, Heidi Horan, Curtis D. Jones, Francesco Giunta, Zhao Zhang, Claas Nendel, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land-use [University of Göttingen] (CBL), Department of Economic Drt and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Science [Melbourne], Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020]), Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Department of Agri‐food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), The James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Center for Tropical Agriculture, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro‐Bio Tech, Université de Liège, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Department of Crop Sciences, Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible - Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS CSIC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology [Neuherberg], German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences [Copenhagen], Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture [New Delhi], Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Lincoln, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Joint Research Centre (IPTS), Commission Européenne, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), CSIRO Agriculture and Food (CSIRO), Plant Production Systems, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China, Grant/Award Number: 20120097110042, International Food Policy, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, University of Naples Federico II, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Universtiy of Florence, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Wageningen University, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, University of Goettingen, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA‐CIMMYT, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), Comenius University [Bratislava], Helmholtz Zentrum München, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, IAS‐CSIC, Universidad de Cordoba, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Aarhus University, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Beijing Normal University, and China Agricultural University
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Water en Voedsel, 01 natural sciences, grain protein, adaptation au milieu, climate change adaptation, climate change impact, food security, wheat, Co2 concentration, adaptation to the environment, Triticum, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, Ecology, Temperature, food and beverages, Adaptation, Physiological, Droughts, Nitrogen, Climate Change, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, blé, Crop production, Food Quality, Grain quality, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Grain Proteins, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, WIMEK, Water and Food, Global change, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Grain yield, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, Protein concentration
Abstract: Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production., B.L received support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat. A.M. received support from the EU Marie Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement no. PCOFUND‐GA‐2010‐267196. PM, A.M., D.R., and D.W. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). L.X. and Y.Z. were supported by the National High‐Tech Research and Development Program of China (2013AA100404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31271616), the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120097110042), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). F.T. and Z.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571088, 41571493 and 31561143003). R.R. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project SPACES‐LLL. Rothamsted Research receives support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat programme [BB/P016855/1]. M.J. and J.E.O. were supported by Innovation Fund Denmark through the MACSUR project. L.X. and Y.G. acknowledge support from the China Scholarship Council. M.B and R.F. were funded by JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and thank A. Soltani from Gorgan Univ. of Agric. Sci. & Natur. Resour. for his support. R.P.R., T.P., and F.T. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM) and from the Academy of Finland through the projects NORFASYS (decision nos. 268277 and 292944) and PLUMES (decision nos. 277403 and 292836). K.C.K. and C.N. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project. S.M. and C.M. acknowledge financial support from the MACMIT project (01LN1317A) funded through BMBF. G.J.O. and G.J.F. acknowledge support from the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, The University of Melbourne and the Grains Research Development Corporation, Australia. P.K.A.'s work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations.. B.B. received financial support from USDA NIFA‐Water Cap Award 2015‐68007‐23133. F.E. acknowledges support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J) and from the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5‐1).
Published: 2019
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4. Implementation of sequential cropping into JULESvn5.2 land-surface model

Author: Pete Falloon, Sébastien Garrigues, Camilla Mathison, A. Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Sophie Moulin, Chetan Deva, Andrew J. Challinor, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Leeds, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nice (CHU Nice), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA), University of Exeter, and European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013)
Subjects: 2. Zero hunger, Hydrology, Wet season, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Climate change, Growing season, Tropics, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Multiple cropping, Crop rotation, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Geology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Cropping system, Cropping, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Land-surface models (LSMs) typically simulate a single crop per year in a field or location. However, actual cropping systems are characterized by a succession of distinct crop cycles that are sometimes interspersed with long periods of bare soil. Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is particularly common in tropical regions, where the crop seasons are largely dictated by the main wet season. In this paper, we implement sequential cropping in a branch of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and demonstrate its use at sites in France and India. We simulate all the crops grown within a year in a field or location in a seamless way to understand how sequential cropping influences the surface fluxes of a land-surface model. We evaluate JULES with sequential cropping in Avignon, France, providing over 15 years of continuous flux observations (a point simulation). We apply JULES with sequential cropping to simulate the rice–wheat rotation in a regional 25 km resolution gridded simulation for the northern Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and four single-grid-box simulations across these states, where each simulation is a 25 km grid box. The inclusion of a secondary crop in JULES using the sequential cropping method presented does not change the crop growth or development of the primary crop. During the secondary crop growing period, the carbon and energy fluxes for Avignon and India are modified; they are largely unchanged for the primary crop growing period. For India, the inclusion of a secondary crop using this sequential cropping method affects the available soil moisture in the top 1.0 m throughout the year, with larger fluctuations in sequential crops compared with single-crop simulations even outside the secondary crop growing period. JULES simulates sequential cropping in Avignon, the four India locations and the regional run, representing both crops within one growing season in each of the crop rotations presented. This development is a step forward in the ability of JULES to simulate crops in tropical regions where this cropping system is already prevalent. It also provides the opportunity to assess the potential for other regions to implement sequential cropping as an adaptation to climate change.
Published: 2021
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5. South India projected to be susceptible to high future groundnut failure rates for future climate change and geo-engineered scenarios

Author: S. Dobbie, Andrew J. Challinor, Huiyi Yang, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Shaojun Qiu, Bing Chen, and Sat Ghosh
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, GE, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global temperature, business.industry, Natural resource economics, Global warming, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Future climate, Global dimming, 01 natural sciences, Pollution, Extreme weather, Agriculture, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Mean radiant temperature, business, Waste Management and Disposal, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: With an increase in global mean temperature predicted for this century accompanied by more frequent extremes, will farming communities need to brace for increased crop failures and hardship? Solar dimming climate geoengineering has been proposed as a possible solution to combat rising global temperature but what effect will it or other climate related adaptation have on crop failures? We performed a crop modelling study using future climate and geoengineering projections to investigate these questions. Our results indicate that groundnut crop failure rates in Southern India are very sensitive to climate change, and project an increase of approximately a factor of two on average over this century, affecting one out of every two to three years instead of one in every five years. We also project that solar dimming geoengineering will have little impact on reducing these failure rates. In contrast, the projections for the rest of Indian regions show decreasing failure rates of 20-30%. In this research, we indicate why south India is more susceptible than the rest of the country and show that neither Solar dimming geoengineering nor reducing heat or water stress are able to fully counteract the increase in failure rates for this region. Thus our modelling projections indicate the potential for a grountnut crop failure crisis for the South India.
Published: 2020

6. Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

Author: Stewart A. Jennings, Kathryn J. Nicklin, Chetan Deva, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Steven M. Sait, and Andrew J. Challinor
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Yield (finance), yields, Climate change, Growing season, lcsh:TX341-641, adaptation, Horticulture, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Abiotic component, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, Ecology, lcsh:TP368-456, business.industry, Agroforestry, Sowing, climate smart agriculture (CSA), lcsh:Food processing and manufacture, climate change, Agriculture, Environmental science, potato, Climate model, business, Agronomy and Crop Science, lcsh:Nutrition. Foods and food supply, 010606 plant biology & botany, Food Science
Abstract: The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.
Published: 2020
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7. Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Author: Elizabeth A. Meier, Isaac N. Alou, Eckart Priesack, Bruno Basso, Edward Gérardeaux, Heidi Webber, Eric Justes, Michel Giner, Saseendran S. Anapalli, Delphine Deryng, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Alex C. Ruane, Bouba Sidi Traoré, Dominique Ripoche, Ward Smith, Babacar Faye, Thomas Gaiser, Patrick Bertuzzi, Folorunso M. Akinseye, Dilys S. MacCarthy, Frédéric Baudron, Alain Ndoli, Brian Grant, Claas Nendel, Kenneth J. Boote, Bernardo Maestrini, Louise Leroux, Christian Baron, Tracy E. Twine, Kokou Adambounou Amouzou, Upendra Singh, Sumit Sinha, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Yi Chen, Michael van der Laan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Marc Corbeels, Dennis Timlin, M. Elsayed, Anthony M. Whitbread, Fulu Tao, Soo-Hyung Kim, Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida, Bahareh Kamali, Jon I. Lizaso, Myriam Adam, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Peter J. Thorburn, François Affholder, Esther S. Ibrahim, Andrew J. Challinor, Sebastian Gayler, Lajpat R. Ahuja, Gatien N. Falconnier, Cheryl Porter, Fasil Mequanint, Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Département Systèmes Biologiques (Cirad-BIOS), University of Ghana, GISS Climate impacts group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Niger] (ICRISAT), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Inde] (ICRISAT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mali, 01 natural sciences, exploitant agricole, smallholder farming systems, Leaching (agriculture), uncertainty, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Biomass (ecology), Ecology, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Rendement des cultures, model intercomparison, Fertilizer, Crop simulation model, crop simulation model, Nitrogen, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Climate Change, Climate change, engineering.material, 010603 evolutionary biology, Zea mays, Petite exploitation agricole, ensemble modelling, Environmental Chemistry, Leaf area index, Fertilizers, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Changement climatique, Agriculture faible niveau intrants, Nutrient management, Modélisation des cultures, Engrais azoté, Modèle de simulation, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Soil water, engineering, Système d'exploitation agricole, Environmental science, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: International audience; Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
Published: 2020
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8. TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support

Author: Matthew Brown, Andrew J. Challinor, Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw, Emily Black, Ross Maidment, Kathryn J. Nicklin, Ewan Pinnington, Frederick Otu-Larbi, and Tristan Quaife
Subjects: 2. Zero hunger, Decision support system, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Warning system, Impact assessment, business.industry, Yield (finance), lcsh:QE1-996.5, Environmental resource management, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Hazard, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Early warning system, Metric (unit), Risk assessment, business, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Early warning of weather-related hazards enables farmers, policy makers and aid agencies to mitigate their exposure to risk. We present a new operational framework, Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground based measurements-AgricuLtural EaRly warning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT), which aims to provide early warning for meteorological risk to agriculture. TAMSAT-ALERT combines information on land-surface properties, seasonal forecasts and historical weather to quantitatively assess the likelihood of adverse weather-related outcomes, such as low yield. This article describes the modular TAMSAT-ALERT framework and demonstrates its application to risk assessment for low maize yield in northern Ghana (Tamale). The modular design of TAMSAT-ALERT enables it to accommodate any impact or land-surface model driven with meteorological data. The implementation described here uses the well-established General Large Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops to provide probabilistic assessments of the meteorological hazard for maize yield in northern Ghana (Tamale) throughout the growing season. The results show that climatic risk to yield is poorly constrained in the beginning of the season, but as the season progresses, the uncertainty is rapidly reduced. Based on the assessment for the period 2002–2011, we show that TAMSAT-ALERT can estimate the meteorological risk on maize yield 6 to 8 weeks in advance of harvest. The TAMSAT-ALERT methodology implicitly weights forecast and observational inputs according to their relevance to the metric being assessed. A secondary application of TAMSAT-ALERT is thus an evaluation of the usefulness of meteorological forecast products for impact assessment. Here, we show that in northern Ghana (Tamale), the tercile seasonal forecasts of seasonal cumulative rainfall and mean temperature, which are routinely issued to farmers, are of limited value because regional and seasonal temperature and rainfall are poorly correlated with yield. This finding speaks to the pressing need for meteorological forecast products that are tailored for individual user applications.
Published: 2018
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9. Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon

Author: Andrew J. Challinor, Pete Falloon, Chetan Deva, and Camilla Mathison
Subjects: 2. Zero hunger, Wet season, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Sowing, Growing season, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Subtropics, Present day, Monsoon, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QE500-639.5, 13. Climate action, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Spatial variability, lcsh:Q, Precipitation, lcsh:Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models, especially for regions where high-resolution data are unavailable or, as is the case in future climate runs, where no data are available at all. Global datasets are not always able to distinguish when wheat is grown in tropical and subtropical regions, and they are also often coarse in resolution. South Asia is one such region where large spatial variation means higher-resolution datasets are needed, together with greater clarity for the timing of the main wheat growing season. Agriculture in South Asia is closely associated with the dominating climatological phenomenon, the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Rice and wheat are two highly important crops for the region, with rice being mainly cultivated in the wet season during the summer monsoon months and wheat during the dry winter. We present a method for estimating the crop sowing and harvest dates for rice and wheat using the ASM onset and retreat. The aim of this method is to provide a more accurate alternative to the global datasets of cropping calendars than is currently available and generate more representative inputs for climate impact assessments. We first demonstrate that there is skill in the model prediction of monsoon onset and retreat for two downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) by comparing modelled precipitation with observations. We then calculate and apply sowing and harvest rules for rice and wheat for each simulation to climatological estimates of the monsoon onset and retreat for a present day period. We show that this method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India. The application of the method to two future simulations demonstrates that the estimated sowing and harvest dates are successfully modified to ensure that the growing season remains consistent with the internal model climate. The study therefore provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Published: 2018

10. Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Author: Andrew J. Challinor, Stephen Whitfield, and Louise Beveridge
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Computer science, Environmental resource management, Stakeholder, Climate change, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 01 natural sciences, Work (electrical), Agency (sociology), 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Relevance (information retrieval), business, Adaptation (computer science), Baseline (configuration management), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Maladaptation
Abstract: A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.
Published: 2018
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11. Assessing uncertainty and complexity in regional-scale crop model simulations

Author: Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Ann-Kristin Koehler, and Andrew J. Challinor
Subjects: Index (economics), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mean squared error, Simulation modeling, Soil Science, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Plant Science, 01 natural sciences, Agronomy, Statistics, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Sensitivity analysis, Predictability, Leaf area index, Agronomy and Crop Science, Uncertainty analysis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Mathematics, Parametric statistics
Abstract: Crop models are imperfect approximations to real world interactions between biotic and abiotic factors. In some situations, the uncertainties associated with choices in model structure, model inputs and parameters can exceed the spatiotemporal variability of simulated yields, thus limiting predictability. For Indian groundnut, we used the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) with an existing framework to decompose uncertainty, to first understand how skill changes with added model complexity, and then to determine the relevant uncertainty sources in yield and other prognostic variables (total biomass, leaf area index and harvest index). We developed an ensemble of simulations by perturbing GLAM parameters using two different input meteorology datasets, and two model versions that differ in the complexity with which they account for assimilation. We found that added complexity improved model skill, as measured by changes in the root mean squared error (RMSE), by 5–10% in specific pockets of western, central and southern India, but that 85% of the groundnut growing area either did not show improved skill or showed decreased skill from such added complexity. Thus, adding complexity or using overly complex models at regional or global scales should be exercised with caution. Uncertainty analysis indicated that, in situations where soil and air moisture dynamics are the major determinants of productivity, predictability in yield is high. Where uncertainty for yield is high, the choice of weather input data was found critical for reducing uncertainty. However, for other prognostic variables (including leaf area index, total biomass and the harvest index) parametric uncertainty was generally the most important source, with a contribution of up to 90% in some cases, suggesting that regional-scale data additional to yield to constrain model parameters is needed. Our study provides further evidence that regional-scale studies should explicitly quantify multiple uncertainty sources.
Published: 2017
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12. Developing a sequential cropping capability in the JULESvn5.2 land–surface model

Author: Andrew J. Challinor, Sébastien Garrigues, Andy Wiltshire, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, Camilla Mathison, Sophie Moulin, Karina Williams, Fitzroy Road, University of Leeds, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), and Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: Wet season, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 0211 other engineering and technologies, Growing season, 02 engineering and technology, Multiple cropping, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, modèle de surface, culture séquentielle, Leaf area index, Cropping system, Milieux et Changements globaux, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, production agricole, rotation des cultures, Tropics, 15. Life on land, Crop rotation, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Cropping
Abstract: Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is a common feature, particularly for tropical regions, where the crop seasons are largely dictated by the main wet season such as the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The ASM provides the water resources for crops grown for the whole year, thereby influencing crop production outside the ASM period. Land surface models (LSMs) typically simulate a single crop per year, however, in order to understand how sequential cropping influences demand for resources, we need to simulate all of the crops grown within a year in a seamless way. In this paper we implement sequential cropping in a branch of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and demonstrate its use at Avignon, a site that uses the sequential cropping system and provides over 15-years of continuous flux observations which we use to evaluate JULES with sequential cropping. In order to implement the method in future regional simulations where there may be large variations in growing conditions, we apply the same method to four locations in the North Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to simulate the rice--wheat rotation and compare model yields to observations at these locations. JULES is able to simulate sequential cropping at Avignon and the four India locations, representing both crops within one growing season in each of the crop rotations presented. At Avignon the maxima of LAI, above ground biomass and canopy height occur at approximately the correct time for both crops. The magnitudes of biomass, especially for winter wheat, are underestimated and the leaf area index is overestimated. The JULES fluxes are a good fit to observations (r-values greater than 0.7), either using grasses to represent crops or the crop model, implying that both approaches represent the surface coverage correctly. For the India simulations, JULES successfully reproduces observed yields for the eastern locations, however yields are under estimated for the western locations. This development is a step forward in the ability of JULES to simulate crops in tropical regions, where this cropping system is already prevalent, while also providing the opportunity to assess the potential for other regions to implement it as an adaptation to climate change.
Published: 2019
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13. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Author: Mónica Espadafor, Bing Liu, Frank Ewert, Mukhtar Ahmed, Liujun Xiao, Thilo Streck, Senthold Asseng, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, John R. Porter, Sara Minoli, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Joost Wolf, Juraj Balkovic, Alex C. Ruane, Giacomo De Sanctis, Pierre Martre, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Marijn van der Velde, Dominique Ripoche, Roberto Ferrise, Davide Cammarano, Fulu Tao, Bruno Basso, Christoph Müller, Heidi Webber, Yujing Gao, Andrea Maiorano, Christian Klein, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Garry O'Leary, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Eckart Priesack, Peter J. Thorburn, Heidi Horan, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Iwan Supit, Zhigan Zhao, Taru Palosuo, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Katharina Waha, Sebastian Gayler, Daniel Wallach, Yan Zhu, Marco Bindi, Zhao Zhang, Claas Nendel, Enli Wang, Curtis D. Jones, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Benjamin Dumont, National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Lincoln University, University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, affiliation inconnue, Comenius University in Bratislava, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing], Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), The James Hutton Institute, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Université de Liège, University of Córdoba, Department of Crop Sciences, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Agriculture Victoria Research, Institute for Natural Resources, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Rothamsted Research, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Grant/Award Number: BB/, P016855/1
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Food prices, Water en Voedsel, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Model ensemble, Extreme low yields, model ensemble, 1.5°C warming, Temperate climate, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Environmental Chemistry, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, Ecology, business.industry, wheat production, Crop yield, Global warming, food security, 15. Life on land, PE&RC, climate change, Plant Production Systems, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, extreme low yields, 8. Economic growth, Environmental science, Wheat production, Water Systems and Global Change, business, Cropping
Abstract: Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming, We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for support. B.L., L.X., and Y.Z. were supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (31725020), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31801260, 51711520319, and 31611130182), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu province (BK20180523), the 111 Project (B16026), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). S.A. and B.K. received support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat. P.M, D.R., and D.W. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). F.T. and Z.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571088, 41571493, 31761143006, and 31561143003). R.R. acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project “Limpopo Living Landscapes” project (SPACES program; grant number 01LL1304A). Rothamsted Research receives grant‐aided support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat project [BB/P016855/1]. L.X. and Y.G. acknowledge support from the China Scholarship Council. M.B and R.F. were funded by JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and thank A. Soltani from Gorgan Univ. of Agric. Sci. & Natur. Resour for his support. K.C.K. and C.N. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project. S.M. and C.M. acknowledge financial support from the MACMIT project (01LN1317A) funded through BMBF. G.J.O. acknowledges support from the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources. P.K.A. was supported by the multiple donors contributing to the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). B.B. received financial support from USDA NIFA‐Water Cap Award 2015‐68007‐23133. F.E. acknowledges support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J) and from the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5‐1). J.R.P. acknowledges the support of the Labex Agro (Agropolis no. 1501‐003). La. T.P. and F.T. received financial support from the Academy of Finland through the project PLUMES (decision nos. 277403 and 292836) and from Natural Resources Institute Finland through the project ClimSmartAgri.
Published: 2019
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14. Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century

Author: Andrew J. Challinor, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Maisa Rojas, and Fabrice Lambert
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, 0303 health sciences, Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Agroforestry, business.industry, Climate Change, Climate change, 01 natural sciences, Adaptation, Physiological, Models, Biological, Natural (archaeology), Crop Production, 03 medical and health sciences, Crop production, Agriculture, Food supply, Physical Sciences, Environmental science, Natural variability, Precipitation, Adaptation, business, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (
Published: 2019

15. Design of a Soil-based Climate-Smartness Index (SCSI) using the trend and variability of yields and soil organic carbon

Author: Stephen Whitfield, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andrew J. Challinor, and Laura N. Arenas-Calle
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, SCSI, Conservation agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Agricultural engineering, Soil carbon, Carbon sequestration, 01 natural sciences, Soil management, Climate change mitigation, Soil retrogression and degradation, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Animal Science and Zoology, Soil fertility, Agronomy and Crop Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has had an increasing role in the agricultural policy arena, as it aims to address climate change mitigation, adaptation and food security goals in an integrated way. In regions where agriculture has been constrained because of soil degradation and climate change, CSA aims to implement soil-based strategies that restore soil function and increase carbon storage. The extent to which such strategies succeed in achieving mitigation, adaptation and productivity goals is referred to as climate-smartness. The co-evolution of yield and Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) over the years presents a proxy for the trade-off between productivity, soil fertility and carbon sequestration. Yield and SOC are widely monitored, analysed and used to inform CSA planning. Yet their analysis is often conducted separately and for a small number of years, which neglects long-term soil fertility dynamics and their impact on crops. Given the absence of integrated climate-smartness metrics to capture the trade-offs and synergies between SOC and yield, we present a soil-based Climate-Smartness Index (SCSI). The SCSI is computed using normalized indicators of trend and variability of annual changes on yield and SOC data. The SCSI was calculated for a set of published experiments that compared Conservation Agriculture (CA) practices with conventional management. The CA treatments scored higher SCSI during the first 5 years of evaluation as compared to conventional management. Analysis of the temporal dynamics of climate-smartness indicated that minimum SCSI values typically occurred before 5 years after the start of the experiment, indicating potential trade-offs between SOC and yield. Conversely, SCSI values peaked between 5 and 10 years. After 20 years, the SCSI tended towards zero, as substantial changes in either SOC or yield are no longer evidenced. The SCSI can be calculated for annual crops under any soil management and at different time periods, providing a consistent metric for climate-smartness across both practices and time.
Published: 2021
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16. Mapping vulnerability to multiple hazards in the savannah Ecosystem in Ghana

Author: E.M. Attua, Edwin A. Gyasi, Gerald A. B. Yiran, Andrew J. Challinor, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Andrew J. Evans
Subjects: Global and Planetary Change, Adaptive capacity, Geographic information system, Data collection, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Vulnerability, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Livelihood, 01 natural sciences, Geography, Vulnerability assessment, Agriculture, Environmental protection, business, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The interior savannah ecosystem in Ghana is subjected to a number of hazards, including droughts, windstorms, high temperatures and heavy rainfall. The frequency and intensity of these hazards are projected to increase during the twenty-first century as a result of climate variability and change. Vulnerabilities to these hazards vary, both spatially and temporally, due to differences in susceptibilities and adaptive capacities. Many mapping exercises in Ghana have considered the impacts of single hazards on single sectors, particularly agriculture. But the hazards often occur concurrently or alternately and have varying degrees of impacts on different sectors. The impacts also interact. These interactions make mapping of the vulnerabilities of multiple sectors to multiple hazards imperative. This paper presents an analysis of the spatial dimension of vulnerabilities by mapping vulnerability of sectors that support livelihood activities at a single point in time, using the Upper East Region of Ghana as a case study. Data collected to develop the maps were largely quantitative and from secondary sources. Other data drew on fieldwork undertaken in the region from July to September 2013. Quantitative values were assigned to qualitative categorical data as the mapping process is necessarily quantitative. Data were divided into susceptibility and adaptive capacity indicators and mapped in ArcGIS 10.2 using weighted linear sum aggregation. Agriculture was found to be the most vulnerable sector in all districts of the Upper East Region and experienced the greatest shocks from all hazards. Although all districts were vulnerable, the Talensi, Nabdam, Garu-Temapane and Kassena-Nankana West Districts were most vulnerable. Findings highlight the need for more targeted interventions to build adaptive capacity in light of the spatial distributions of vulnerabilities to hazards across sectors.
Published: 2016
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17. Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

Author: B. Das, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andrew J. Challinor, Stephen Whitfield, and Ann-Kristin Koehler
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Food security, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Yield (finance), Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Agronomy, Agriculture, Environmental science, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 010606 plant biology & botany, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses.
Published: 2016
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18. Towards a genotypic adaptation strategy for Indian groundnut cultivation using an ensemble of crop simulations

Author: Julian Ramirez-Villegas and Andrew J. Challinor
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, business.industry, Simulation modeling, Climate change, Agricultural engineering, 01 natural sciences, Crop, Agriculture, Environmental science, Climate model, Uncertainty quantification, Agricultural productivity, Adaptation, business, 010606 plant biology & botany, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Climate change has been projected to significantly affect agricultural productivity and hence food availability in the coming decades. The uncertainty associated with projecting climate change impacts is a barrier to agricultural adaptation. Despite uncertainty quantification becoming more prominent in impact studies, the thorough quantification of more than one uncertainty source is not commonly exercised. This work focuses on Indian groundnut and uses the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) to investigate the response of groundnut under future climate scenarios, develop a genotypic adaptation strategy, and quantify the main uncertainty sources. Results suggest that despite large uncertainty in yield projections (to which crop- and climate-related sources contribute 46 and 54 %, respectively) no-regret strategies are possible for Indian groundnut. Benefits from genotypic adaptation were robust towards the choice of climate model, crop model parameters and bias-correction methods. Groundnut breeding for 2030 climates should be oriented toward increasing maximum photosynthetic rates, total assimilate partitioned to seeds, and, where enough soil moisture is available, also maximum transpiration rates. No benefit from enhanced heat stress tolerance was observed, though this trait may become important as warming intensifies. Managing yield variability remains a challenge for groundnut, suggesting that an integral approach to crop adaptation that includes year-to-year coping strategies as well as improvements in crop management is needed across all India.
Published: 2016
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19. Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

Author: Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andrew J. Challinor, Flora Mer, Ulrike Rippke, Louis Parker, Mark Howden, Andy Jarvis, Sonja J. Vermeulen, and Bernd Diekkrüger
Subjects: Food security, Sub saharan, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Natural resource economics, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Transformative learning, Transformational leadership, Environmental protection, Agriculture, Climate change adaptation, Adaptation, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Climate change may necessitate transformative adaptation of agricultural systems. Research now indicates when and where the cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan African will become unviable.
Published: 2016
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20. Climate risks across borders and scales

Author: W. Neil Adger, Andrew J. Challinor, and Tim G. Benton
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, law.invention, Transmission (mechanics), law, Key (cryptography), Food systems, Environmental impact assessment, sense organs, skin and connective tissue diseases, business, Risk assessment, health care economics and organizations, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Changing climates are outpacing some components of our food systems. Risk assessments need to account for these rates of change. Assessing risk transmission mechanisms across sectors and international boundaries and coordinating policies across governments are key steps in addressing this challenge.
Published: 2017
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21. Data requirements for crop modelling-Applying the learning curve approach to the simulation of winter wheat flowering time under climate change

Author: Jes Olesen, M.P Hoffman, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, M. Montesino-San Martin, John R. Porter, Daniel Wallach, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Aarhus University [Aarhus], University of Leeds, University Medical Center Göttingen (UMG), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Calibration (statistics), Triticum aestivum, Soil Science, Climate change, anthesis, klim, Plant Science, 01 natural sciences, Statistics, dataset, triticum aestivum, Limit (mathematics), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, Observational error, Simulation modeling, Statistical model, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, learning curve, climate change, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Learning curve, Data quality, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract: International audience; A prerequisite for application of crop models is a careful parameterization based on observational data. However, there are limited studies investigating the link between quality and quantity of observed data and its suitability for model parameterization. Here, we explore the interactions between number of measurements, noise and model predictive skills to simulate the impact of 2050's climate change (RCP8.5) on winter wheat flowering time. The learning curve of two winter wheat phenology models is analysed under different assumptions about the size of the calibration dataset, the measurement error and the accuracy of the model structure. Our assessment confirms that prediction skills improve asymptotically with the size of the calibration dataset, as with statistical models. Results suggest that less precise but larger training datasets can improve the predictive abilities of models. However, the non-linear relationship between number of measurements, measurement error, and prediction skills limit the compensation between data quality and quantity. We find that the model performance does not improve significantly with a theoretical minimum size of 7-9 observations when the model structure is approximate. While simulation of crop phenology is critical to crop model simulation, more studies are needed to explore data needs for assessing entire crop models.
Published: 2018
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22. Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

Author: Dave Frame, Manoj Joshi, Tim G. Benton, W. Neil Adger, Declan Conway, and Andrew J. Challinor
Subjects: Food security, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, General Mathematics, Climate risk, Climate Change, Big data, General Engineering, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Energy security, Articles, 010501 environmental sciences, Models, Theoretical, 01 natural sciences, Risk Assessment, Environmental Policy, 13. Climate action, Systems science, Scenario analysis, Business, Risk assessment, Environmental planning, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, GE Environmental Sciences
Abstract: Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.
Published: 2018

23. Frontiers in Climate Smart Food Systems: Outlining the Research Space

Author: Robert M. Rees, Andrew J. Challinor, and Stephen Whitfield
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, climate-smart agriculture, Climate change, lcsh:TX341-641, Space (commercial competition), Horticulture, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, 01 natural sciences, Political science, 0502 economics and business, Systems thinking, Environmental planning, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, Ecology, lcsh:TP368-456, business.industry, Cross disciplinary, 05 social sciences, systems thinking, food security, sustainable development goals, cross-disciplinary, lcsh:Food processing and manufacture, Agriculture, Food systems, 050202 agricultural economics & policy, business, Agronomy and Crop Science, lcsh:Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food Science
Published: 2018
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24. The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment for modeling wheat response to temperature: Field experiments and AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations

Author: Roberto C. Izaurralde, Jakarat Anothai, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Jørgen E. Olesen, Curtis D. Jones, Bing Liu, T. Palosuo, Peter J. Thorburn, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Mohamed Jabloun, Iwan Supit, Frank Ewert, Mikhail A. Semenov, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Claudio O. Stöckle, Benjamin Dumont, Belay T. Kassie, Jordi Doltra, Christian Biernath, Dominique Ripoche, Giacomo De Sanctis, Enli Wang, Elias Fereres, Bruce A. Kimball, Thilo Streck, Gerard W. Wall, L. A. Hunt, Pierre Stratonovitch, Fulu Tao, Jeffrey W. White, Christoph Müller, Bruno Basso, Senthold Asseng, Katharina Waha, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Andrea Maiorano, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Eckart Priesack, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Davide Cammarano, David B. Lobell, Joost Wolf, Pierre Martre, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Garry O'Leary, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Sebastian Gayler, Yan Zhu, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), University of Leeds, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Universidad de Córdoba [Cordoba], Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible - Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS CSIC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biological Systems Engineering, PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, and Southwest University
Subjects: Simulations, 0106 biological sciences, Irrigation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Water en Voedsel, Wheat, Field experimental data, Heat stress, Crop model simulations, AgMIP, Hot Serial Cereal, 01 natural sciences, donnée expérimentale, Crop, blé, température, Life Science, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Relative humidity, Cultivar, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, WIMEK, Water and Food, Vegetal Biology, Global warming, Sowing, essai en plein champ, food and beverages, série climatique, Modélisation et simulation, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, Agronomy, Plant Production Systems, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Modeling and Simulation, Frost, Weather data, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, stress hydrique, Biologie végétale, modèle de production, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: The data set reported here includes the part of a Hot Serial Cereal Experiment (HSC) experiment recently used in the AgMIP-Wheat project to analyze the uncertainty of 30 wheat models and quantify their response to temperature. The HSC experiment was conducted in an open-field in a semiarid environment in the southwest USA. The data reported herewith include one hard red spring wheat cultivar (Yecora Rojo) sown approximately every six weeks from December to August for a two-year period for a total of 11 planting dates out of the 15 of the entire HSC experiment. The treatments were chosen to avoid any effect of frost on grain yields. On late fall, winter and early spring plantings temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) apparatus utilizing infrared heaters with supplemental irrigation were used to increase air temperature by 1.3°C/2.7°C (day/night) with conditions equivalent to raising air temperature at constant relative humidity (i.e. as expected with global warming) during the whole crop growth cycle. Experimental data include local daily weather data, soil characteristics and initial conditions, detailed crop measurements taken at three growth stages during the growth cycle, and cultivar information. Simulations include both daily in-season and end-of-season results from 30 wheat models. Data access via doi 10.7910/DVN/M9ZT0F
Published: 2018
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25. Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop–environment–management interactions

Author: Giacomo De Sanctis, Taru Palosuo, Davide Cammarano, Frank Ewert, Soora Naresh Kumar, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Elias Fereres, Bing Liu, Thilo Streck, Mikhail A. Semenov, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Peter J. Thorburn, Claudio O. Stöckle, Benjamin Dumont, Andrea Maiorano, Eckart Priesack, Iwan Supit, Heidi Horan, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Pierre Martre, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Yujing Gao, Zhao Zhang, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Curtis D Jones, Fulu Tao, Claas Nendel, Christoph Müller, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Mukhtar Ahmed, Senthold Asseng, Christine Girousse, Bruno Basso, Christian Klein, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Joost Wolf, Glenn J. Fitzgerald, Martin K. van Ittersum, Garry O'Leary, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Sebastian Gayler, Daniel Wallach, Sara Minoli, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Nanjing Agricultural University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing], Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Plant Pathology, The James Hutton Institute, University of Leeds, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro‐Bio Tech, Université de Liège, Center for Development Research, University of Córdoba, Agriculture Victoria Research, University of Melbourne, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020]), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Institute of landscape systems analysis, School of Earth and Environment, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (DEDJTR), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), University Medical Center Göttingen (UMG), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Plant Production Systems, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University (BNU), European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU), Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), and Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mean squared error, Climate Change, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Inverse, Water en Voedsel, Monotonic function, multi-model ensemble, Environment, High skill, 01 natural sciences, crop models, ensemble mean, Statistics, Environmental Chemistry, Triticum, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, ensemble median, Global and Planetary Change, WIMEK, Water and Food, Ecology, Ensemble average, Simulation modeling, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Variance (accounting), prediction, Models, Theoretical, PE&RC, Plant Production Systems, multimodel ensemble, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, climate change impact, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Water Systems and Global Change, Environment management
Abstract: International audience; A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multi model ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e‐mean) and median (e‐median) often seem to predict quite well. However few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is the predictive quality of e‐mean and e‐median, and how does that depend on the ensemble characteristics. Our empirical results are based on five MME studies applied to wheat, using different data sets but the same 25 crop models. We show that the ensemble predictors have quite high skill and are better than most and sometimes all individual models for most groups of environments and most response variables. Mean squared error of e‐mean decreases monotonically with the size of the ensemble if models are added at random, but has a minimum at usually 2‐6 models if best‐fit models are added first. Our theoretical results describe the ensemble using four parameters; average bias, model effect variance, environment effect variance and interaction variance. We show analytically that mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of e‐mean will always be smaller than MSEP averaged over models, and will be less than MSEP of the best model if squared bias is less than the interaction variance. If models are added to the ensemble at random, MSEP of e‐mean will decrease as the inverse of ensemble size, with a minimum equal to squared bias plus interaction variance. This minimum value is not necessarily small, and so it is important to evaluate the predictive quality of e‐mean for each target population of environments. These results provide new information on the advantages of ensemble predictors, but also show their limitations.
Published: 2018
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26. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Author: Alex C. Ruane, Peter J. Thorburn, Mikhail A. Semenov, Joost Wolf, Claudio O. Stöckle, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Gerard W. Wall, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Matthew P. Reynolds, Eckart Priesack, Jørgen E. Olesen, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Jordi Doltra, Iurii Shcherbak, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Jeffrey W. White, Leilei Liu, L. A. Hunt, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Yan Zhu, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Daniel Wallach, Christian Biernath, Davide Cammarano, Mohamed Jabloun, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Pierre Martre, Sebastian Gayler, Garry O'Leary, Zhimin Wang, Jakarat Anothai, Elias Fereres, Claas Nendel, Bruno Basso, Thilo Streck, Curtis D. Jones, Andrea Maiorano, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Taru Palosuo, Iwan Supit, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Scholarship Council, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), European Commission, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Department of Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Helmholtz Association, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), CSIRO, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Southwest University, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Washington State University (WSU), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Dep. Agronomia, University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricutural University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Economic Development, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (DEDJTR), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Agriculture and Food, Universidad de La Rioja (UR), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, China Agricultural University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), China Agricultural University (CAU), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Leeds, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), AgWeatherNet Program, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Landscape and Water Sciences, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Michigan State University, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology ( BIOP ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, European Food Safety Authority, Spanish National Research Council ( CSIC ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources ( DEDJTR ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Universidad de La Rioja ( UR ), University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yield (finance), Water en Voedsel, Growing season, Climate change, klim, Plant Science, Agricultural engineering, Models, Biological, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Crop, Life Science, Computer Simulation, Productivity, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, business.industry, Crop yield, Temperature, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Climate Resilience, Agronomy, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections., E.W. acknowledges support from the CSIRO project ‘Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions’ and the project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ jointly funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Z.Z. received a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO and the Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program. P.M., A.M. and D.R. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). A.M. received the support of the EU in the framework of the Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement No. PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196. S.A. and D.C. acknowledge support provided by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905 L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and PD.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O'L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. B.B. was funded by USDA-NIFA Grant No: 2015-68007-23133.
Published: 2017
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27. Making the most of climate impacts ensembles

Author: Pierre Martre, Andrew J. Challinor, Senthold Asseng, Philip K. Thornton, Frank Ewert, University of Leeds, International Center for Tropical Agriculture [Colombie] (CIAT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), International Livestock Research Institution [Edinburg] (ILRI), International Livestock Research Institute [CGIAR, Ethiopie] (ILRI), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], and Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Impact assessment, Computer science, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Environmental resource management, Climate change, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, Research policy, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Climate model, business, Projection (set theory), Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Commentary; International audience; Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.
Published: 2014
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28. The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios

Author: Andrew J. Challinor, Nigel W. Arnell, Robert J. Nicholls, Jason Lowe, Dan Bernie, Timothy J. Osborn, and Sally Brown
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Climate change, Representative Concentration Pathways, 010501 environmental sciences, Radiative forcing, 01 natural sciences, Water resources, Climatology, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, Climate model, Precipitation, Coastal flood, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: This paper presents a multi-sectoral evaluation of the global and regional consequences of future climate change across indicators representing impacts on heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It estimates change in physical hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change, characterising the uncertainty in regional climate change with scenarios constructed from CMIP5 climate models. Socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of rate of climate change and socio-economic scenario. The analysis adopts a novel approach using relationships between level of warming and impact to rapidly estimate impacts under any climate forcing. At the global aggregate scale, all the consequences of climate change considered here are adverse: the frequencies of droughts, floods and heatwaves all increase, with large increases under the highest rates of warming. Under the highest forcing (RCP8.5), by 2100 the median estimate of the average annual likelihood of a major heatwave at a point is 97% (compared with 5% now). The median estimate of the proportion of time in hydrological drought is 27% (up from 7% now), but a high-end estimate is 36%. The median estimate of the average likelihood of the current 2% river flood is 7%, but the high-end estimate is over 11%. The socio-economic impacts of climate change are determined by socio-economic scenario. The paper presents projections of indicators at the regional scale, by climate and socio-economic scenario, and these can provide the basis for subsequent assessments.The range in estimated consequences of climate change can be very large, especially at the regional scale, partly due to uncertainty in future emissions and future socio-economic conditions, but also due to scientific uncertainty in how climate changes in response to future emissions. The relative importance of these three main sources of uncertainty varies between indicators. By 2100 for most indicators the range across socio-economic scenario is greater than the range across the forcing levels considered here. For the indicators dependent on temperature, the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity, but for the indicators determined by precipitation change the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated spatial and seasonal pattern of changes in precipitation.
Published: 2019
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29. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Author: Frank Ewert, Jakarat Anothai, P. V. Vara Prasad, Davide Cammarano, Curtis D. Jones, Elias Fereres, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Soora Naresh Kumar, Eckart Priesack, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Alex C. Ruane, Christian Folberth, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Pierre Martre, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Fulu Tao, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Mohamed Jabloun, Jordi Doltra, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Bing Liu, Iurii Shcherbak, Jeffrey W. White, Bruno Basso, Senthold Asseng, Pierre Stratonovitch, Peter J. Thorburn, Claas Nendel, Taru Palosuo, Joost Wolf, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Thilo Streck, Jørgen E. Olesen, David B. Lobell, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Delphine Deryng, L. A. Hunt, Garry O'Leary, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Daniel Wallach, Yan Zhu, James W. Jones, Elke Stehfest, Mikhail A. Semenov, Christian Biernath, Claudio O. Stöckle, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Matthew P. Reynolds, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Erwin Schmid, Iwan Supit, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Sebastian Gayler, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Gerard W. Wall, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Computation Institute, Loyola University of Chicago, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, CIMMYT, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University [Mississippi], Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University (PSU), Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon [Eugene], W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg] (IBOE), Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), The James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Department of Agronomy, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Natural resources institute Finland, Institute of Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Birmingham], University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Center for Development Research (ZEF), Environmental Impacts Group, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS, WSG and CALM, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, China Agricultural University (CAU), National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (2013AA100404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31271616, 31611130182, 41571088 and 31561143003), the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120097110042), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), China Scholarship Council., IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Stanford University [Stanford], Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Prince of Songkla University, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), China Agricultural University, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Florida, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape Biogeochemistry, Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] ( CCSR ), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research ( CGIAR ), W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg] ( IBOE ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ( IIASA ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung ( IMK-IFU ), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), Bonn Universität [Bonn], University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, [ SDV.BV ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, régression statistique, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, impact sur le rendement, klim, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, incertitude, wheat, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, Regression analysis, statistical regression, simulation, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, sécurité alimentaire, Plant Production Systems, modèle de récolte, Yield (finance), comparaison de modèles, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Earth System Science, blé, température, Life Science, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, réchauffement climatique, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Hydrology, WIMEK, Global temperature, business.industry, Crop yield, Global warming, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Environmental science, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Climate model, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Published: 2016
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30. Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut

Author: Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Laixiang Sun, Huiyi Yang, Bing Chen, Kuishuang Feng, Tingting Fan, S. Dobbie, Andrew J. Challinor, Sat Ghosh, Yao Gao, James E. M. Watson, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Yan Yin, and Lindsay Lee
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Climate, groundnut, 010501 environmental sciences, Global dimming, 01 natural sciences, Global Change from Geodesy, Oceans, agriculture, Climatology, 2. Zero hunger, Climate and Interannual Variability, GLAM, 6. Clean water, Oceanography: General, Climate Impact, climate change, Geophysics, Atmospheric Processes, Impacts of Global Change, Oceanography: Physical, S1, Volcanology, Climate change, Decadal Ocean Variability, geoengineering, Crop production, Research Letter, Geodesy and Gravity, Global Change, Geoengineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Climate Change and Variability, Global temperature, business.industry, Climate Variability, Crop yield, Climate Impacts, Research Letters, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Volcano/Climate Interactions, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Regional Climate Change, Hydrology, business, Natural Hazards
Abstract: Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop‐climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased., Key Points We simulated a negative impact on groundnut yields under geoengineered climate compared to a future global warming climateCrop yields are sensitive to water stress across whole Indian subcontinent, more sensitive to temperature stress across western partA sustained 50 year geoengineering intervention is shown to have no lasting effects on groundnut yields once the intervention is ceased
Published: 2016
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31. Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?

Author: Frank Ewert, Peter J. Thorburn, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Alex C. Ruane, Senthold Asseng, Daniel Wallach, James W. Jones, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Partenaires INRAE
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mean squared error, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Prediction error, Parameter uncertainty, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Input uncertainty, Model structure uncertainty, Statistics, Econometrics, Sensitivity analysis, Crop model, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Mathematics, Mathematical model, Ecological Modeling, Simulation modeling, Uncertainty, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Variance (accounting), Random effects model, Term (time), 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Climate model, Software
Abstract: Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEPfixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEPuncertain(X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEPuncertain(X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEPuncertain(X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation. It is important to estimate the uncertainty in crop model predictions.Two uncertainty criteria are defined, treating predictions as fixed or random.The random criterion includes model, parameter and input uncertainty and also bias.The random prediction criterion is specific for each prediction situation.
Published: 2016
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32. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

Author: Carlos Angulo, Frank Ewert, Tom M. Osborne, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Senthold Asseng, Pasquale Steduto, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Eckart Priesack, Patrick Bertuzzi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Dominique Ripoche, Thilo Streck, Joost Wolf, Pierre Stratonovitch, Alex C. Ruane, Richard Goldberg, Robert F. Grant, Taru Palosuo, Iurii Shcherbak, Kenneth J. Boote, Christian Biernath, Garry O'Leary, J. Hooker, Peter J. Thorburn, Joachim Ingwersen, Soora Naresh Kumar, Lee Heng, Maria I. Travasso, Pierre Martre, Katharina Waha, Nicholas I. Hudson, Claas Nendel, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Andrew J. Challinor, Jørgen E. Olesen, Reimund P. Rötter, Davide Camarrano, L. A. Hunt, Sebastian Gayler, Nadine Brisson, Daniel Wallach, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Iwan Supit, Jordi Doltra, Jeffrey W. White, Bruno Basso, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], The James Hutton Institute, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute, International Water Management Institute, Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Environmental Impacts Group, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, Food and Agriculture Organization, Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Earth System Science-Climate Change and Adaptive Land-use and Water Management, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Institute for Climate and Water [Castelnar], Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Plant Production Systems, Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR), JPI FACCE, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] ( CCSR ), University of Florida, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Department of Geological Sciences and Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), University of Maryland, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), Institute for Climate and Water, and Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Temperature sensitivity, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Precipitation, 01 natural sciences, modèle de croissance, wheat, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, climate impacts, 2. Zero hunger, Multi-model ensemble, changement climatique, Ecological Modeling, Temperature, Uncertainty, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, PE&RC, Plant Production Systems, Climatology, PRECIPITATION, Climate impacts, Environmental Engineering, interannual variability, Yield (finance), australie, variation interannuelle, Growing season, Climate change, multi-model ensemble, Earth System Science, Interannual variability, blé, température, pays bas, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, précipitation, business.industry, argentine, Simulation modeling, temperature, Global change, 15. Life on land, inde, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, AgMIP, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Crop modeling, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, Software
Abstract: We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2???0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts. Compares interannual climate response of 27 wheat models at four locations.Calculates the diminishing return of constructing multi-model ensembles for assessment.Identifies similarities and major differences of model responses.Differentiates between interannual temperature sensitivity and climate change response.
Published: 2016
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33. Statistical analysis of large simulated yield datasets for studying climate change effects

Author: David Makowski, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Simona Bassu, Jean-Louis Durand, Pierre Martre, Myriam Adam, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Carlos Angulo, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Patrick Bertuzzi, Christian Biernath, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J. Boote, Nadine Brisson, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J. Challinor, Sjakk J. G. Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Sebastian Gayler, Richard Goldberg, Patricio Grassini, Jerry L. Hatfield, Lee Heng, Steven Hoek, Josh Hooker, Tony L. A. Hunt, Joachim Ingwersen, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond E. E. Jongschaap, James W. Jones, Armen R. Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Jon Lizaso, Christoph Müller, Naresh S. Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J. O'Leary, Jorgen E. Olesen, Tom M. Osborne, Taru Palosuo, Maria V. Pravia, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C. Ruane, Fredirico Sau, Mickhail A. Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Pasquale Steduto, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Edmar I. Teixeira, Peter Thorburn, Denis Timlin, Maria Travasso, Reimund Rötter, Katharina Waha, Daniel Wallach, Jeffrey W. White, Jimmy R. Williams, Joost Wolf, Agronomie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), German Research Center for Environmental Health, Centre for Geo-Information, University of Leeds, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), University of East Anglia, Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), University of Tübingen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), University of Reading (UOR), University of Guelph, University of Hohenheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), University of Washington, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Landscape and Water Sciences, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Agrifood Research Finland, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Rothamsted Research, FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Washington State University (WSU), Plant & Food Research, Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Institute for Climate and Water, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas A&M University System, Hillel, D., Rosenzweig, C., Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, University of Florida, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Université Clermont Auvergne ( UCA ), Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont Ferrand 2) ( UBP ), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Michigan State University, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center ( CIFA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Nebraska Lincoln ( UNL ), International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Aarhus University, PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), Food and Agricultural Organization ( FAO ), Washington State University ( WSU ), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), University of Florida [Gainesville], Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales - Clermont Auvergne (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont Ferrand 2) (UBP), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: analyse de données, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Yield (finance), data analysis, Climate change, 01 natural sciences, Agro Water- en Biobased Economy, statistical analysis, Effects of global warming, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Life Science, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, WIMEK, Mathematical model, analyse statistique, Crop yield, Soil Science Centre, Global change, Statistical model, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, PE&RC, Climate resilience, Climate Resilience, Plant Production Systems, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science
Abstract: Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.
Published: 2015
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34. Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

Author: Suraje Dessai, Jill S. Johnson, Andrew J. Challinor, Pete Falloon, Lan Hoang, and Ann-Kristin Koehler
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Decision Making, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, ensembles, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Economics, 020701 environmental engineering, Adaptation (computer science), uncertainty, lcsh:Environmental sciences, climate impacts, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, lcsh:GE1-350, Food security, business.industry, Impact assessment, Environmental resource management, modeling, Research needs, 15. Life on land, Model integration, climate change, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Environmental Science, Climate model, business
Abstract: The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistical methods for assessing uncertainties, issues regarding model integration and complexity, and ways in which uncertainty frameworks can be used to inform adaptation decisions, with case studies focused on agriculture. Finally, we highlight future research needs and provide recommendations for making further progress.
Published: 2014
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35. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

Author: J. Hooker, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Joost Wolf, Pierre Martre, Iurii Shcherbak, L. A. Hunt, Kenneth J. Boote, L. Heng, James W. Jones, Jerry L. Hatfield, Katharina Waha, Christian Biernath, Iwan Supit, Eckart Priesack, Pasquale Steduto, S. Naresh Kumar, Davide Cammarano, Joachim Ingwersen, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Jordi Doltra, Thilo Streck, Senthold Asseng, Alex C. Ruane, Jeffrey W. White, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Tom M. Osborne, Patrick Bertuzzi, Sebastian Gayler, Andrew J. Challinor, Taru Palosuo, Reimund P. Rötter, Jørgen E. Olesen, Peter J. Thorburn, Nadine Brisson, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Maria I. Travasso, Daniel Wallach, James Williams, Garry O'Leary, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Carlos Angulo, Bruno Basso, R. Goldberg, Robert F. Grant, Frank Ewert, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Claas Nendel, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Department of Agronomy, Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario (CIFA), WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Agriculture Department, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, nstitute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Landscape and Water Sciences, Department of Primary Industries, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Food and Agriculture Organization, Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Institute for Climate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz ( INRES ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] ( ICAS ), University of Leeds, Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario ( CIFA ), University of Alberta [Edmonton], International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate change, projection, crop production, adaptation, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Greenhouse effect, Uncertainty analysis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, model, [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], food, Simulation modeling, ensemble, temperature, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Transient climate simulation, scenario, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, impact, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, co2, Climate model, Crop simulation model, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking. Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
Published: 2013
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36. Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Author: Tim Wheeler, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Julia Slingo, and Andrew J. Challinor
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010505 oceanography, Yield (finance), Crop yield, Probabilistic logic, Forecast skill, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Climatology, Hindcast, Climate model, Probabilistic forecasting, Predictability, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Mathematics
Abstract: Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5° × 2.5° grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multimodel yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.
Published: 2005
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37. Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: Advances and challenges

Author: Tim Wheeler, James Hansen, Andrew J. Challinor, Vincent Moron, Amor Valeriano M. Ines, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Environmental Chemistry, 020701 environmental engineering, Categorical variable, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, business.industry, Crop yield, 15. Life on land, Numerical weather prediction, Geography, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Climate model, Probabilistic forecasting, Crop simulation model, Scale (map), business
Abstract: Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate fore- casts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on clas- sification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within cli- mate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate.'
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38. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

Author: Margarita Garcia-Vila, L. A. Hunt, Jørgen E. Olesen, P. V. V. Prasad, Pierre Martre, Katharina Waha, Curtis D. Jones, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Yan Zhu, Phillip D. Alderman, Christian Biernath, Fulu Tao, Bruno Basso, Davide Cammarano, Christoph Müller, Eckart Priesack, Taru Palosuo, Mohamed Jabloun, Thilo Streck, Zhigan Zhao, Jordi Doltra, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Alex C. Ruane, Andrew J. Challinor, Michael J. Ottman, Jeffrey W. White, Garry O'Leary, Reimund P. Rötter, David B. Lobell, Sebastian Gayler, Gerard W. Wall, G. De Sanctis, Matthew P. Reynolds, Senthold Asseng, Iurii Shcherbak, Peter J. Thorburn, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Daniel Wallach, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Claas Nendel, Jakarat Anothai, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Pierre Stratonovitch, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Joost Wolf, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Frank Ewert, Iwan Supit, S. Naresh Kumar, Elias Fereres, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Columbia University, University of Florida, Department of Agriculture (US), Oregon State University, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Shahid Beheshti University, ARVALIS, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), German Research Foundation, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, CGIAR (France), Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Department of Environment and Primary Industries (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, Stanford University, Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Department of Agronomy, Purdue University [West Lafayette], CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Washington State University (WSU), Department of geological sciences, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, University of Leeds, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Universidad de Córdoba [Cordoba], WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Biological Systems Engineering, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Landscape System Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of landscape systems analysis, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Computational and Systems Biology, John Innes Centre [Norwich], Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Agriculture Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), Nanjing Agricultural University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture [32011-68002-30191], KULUNDA [01LL0905L], FACCE MACSUR project through the German FederalMinistry of Education and Research (BMBF) [031A103B, 2812ERA115], German Science Foundation [EW119/5-1], FACCEMACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council, FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China [41071030], Helmholtz project 'REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects' Topic 9: 'Climate Change and Air Quality', CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation, Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia, Texas AgriLife Research, Texas AM University, CSIRO, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), and Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yield (finance), Growing season, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Crop, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Production (economics), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, business.industry, Global warming, Simulation modeling, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: Asseng, S. et al., Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time., We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and its leaders C. Rosenzweig from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University (USA), J. Jones from University of Florida (USA), J. Hatfield from United States Department of Agriculture (USA) and J. Antle from Oregon State University (USA) for support. We also thank M. Lopez from CIMMYT (Turkey), M. Usman Bashir from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (Pakistan), S. Soufizadeh from Shahid Beheshti University (Iran), and J. Lorgeou and J-C. Deswarte from ARVALIS—Institut du Végétal (France) for assistance with selecting key locations and quantifying regional crop cultivars, anthesis and maturity dates and R. Raymundo for assistance with GIS. S.A. and D.C. received financial support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM—Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and P.D.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O’L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. E.W. and Z.Z. were funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) through the research project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ and by the CSIRO-MoE PhD Research Program.
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39. Contribution of Remote Sensing on Crop Models: A Review

Author: Georgios Zalidis, Thomas Alexandridis, Andrew J. Challinor, Dimitrios Moshou, Dimitrios Kasampalis, and Chetan Deva
Subjects: 2. Zero hunger, Earth observation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Crop yield, Climate change, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design, Field (geography), 13. Climate action, Remote sensing (archaeology), Temporal resolution, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging, Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Scale (map), Spatial analysis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing
Abstract: Crop growth models simulate the relationship between plants and the environment to predict the expected yield for applications such as crop management and agronomic decision making, as well as to study the potential impacts of climate change on food security. A major limitation of crop growth models is the lack of spatial information on the actual conditions of each field or region. Remote sensing can provide the missing spatial information required by crop models for improved yield prediction. This paper reviews the most recent information about remote sensing data and their contribution to crop growth models. It reviews the main types, applications, limitations and advantages of remote sensing data and crop models. It examines the main methods by which remote sensing data and crop growth models can be combined. As the spatial resolution of most remote sensing data varies from sub-meter to 1 km, the issue of selecting the appropriate scale is examined in conjunction with their temporal resolution. The expected future trends are discussed, considering the new and planned remote sensing platforms, emergent applications of crop models and their expected improvement to incorporate automatically the increasingly available remotely sensed products.
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