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Earthquake hypocentral location is perhaps the most classical problem in seismology, the solution of which is often affected by significant uncertainty. In monitoring the effects of underground anthropogenic activities, the earthquake hypocentral location, magnitude, and ground motions are important parameters for managing induced seismicity (as e.g., for operating traffic-light systems). Such decisional systems define the operative reactions to be enacted once an earthquake, exceeding some magnitude or ground-motion threshold, occurs within a monitoring volume defined in the neighborhood of a certain anthropogenic underground activity. In this case, a reliable evaluation of the hypocentral location, along with its uncertainty, becomes crucial for rational decision making. In this article, we analyze different sources of uncertainty that can be relevant for the determination of earthquake source locations, and introduce a logic-tree-based ensemble modeling approach for framing the problem in a decision-making context. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, we analyze uncertainties in the location of a seismic event that occurred on 22 July 2019 within the perimeter of the monitoring domain defined in the Val d’Agri oil field (southern Italy). We cast the result as a model ensemble that allows us to obtain samples from a parent distribution that better represents both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the earthquake location problem. We find that often-neglected epistemic uncertainties (i.e., those that arise when considering alternative plausible modeling approaches or data) can be considerably larger and more representative of the state of knowledge about the source location, than the standard errors usually reported by the most common algorithms. Given the consequential repercussions of decision making under uncertainty, we stress that an objective evaluation of epistemic uncertainties associated with any parameter used to support decisional processes must be a priority for the scientific community.

The geothermal field of Torre Alfina is located in central Italy at the northern edge of the Vulsini Volcanic District, the northernmost area of the so-called Quaternary Roman Co-Magmatic Province. In the framework of a medium-enthalpy geothermal exploitation project, INGV installed a local seismic network close to the future geothermal production site for monitoring natural local seismicity. In this paper, we show the results of a study of the microseismicity recorded from June 2014 to May 2016 in a small area of about 10 km2 around Torre Alfina. Analyzing seismic signals recorded by a local temporary network of ten short-period stations and by four permanent stations of the INGV national seismic network, we detected 846 local earthquakes. Then, we accurately relocated 799 events using HypoDD code. Our results show that the region of Torre Alfina is characterized by intense microseismicity, with hypocentral depths between 3 and 7 km and with moderate magnitudes between Md = 0.1 and ML = 2.8. Moreover, more than half of the earthquakes are grouped into six main swarm-like clusters each lasting few days. Furthermore, we computed 36 well-constrained fault plane solutions, which show a clear transtensional deformation regime in the whole study area. Three main tectonic directions have been evidenced from the focal mechanisms analysis: E-W, WSW-ENE, and NW-SE. The understanding of the seismogenic structural setting of the Torre Alfina geothermal field, and the study of its background natural seismicity can be of great importance in recognizing any possible future seismicity induced by the exploitation of the field.

This paper presents an original multidisciplinary (geological-structural-geomorphological and seismological) study aimed at investigating the origin of diffused seismic damages affecting several ancient buildings in the Roman port city of Ostia. We also evaluate the possibility to relate these damages to a previously hypothesized ENE-WSW trending fault, bordering the morphological height upon which the Ostia town was founded. Aimed at this scope, we performed seismic noise measures (by using 14 seismic stations) that show no significantly different response and lack of significant ground motion differential amplifications. The coexistence of (i) no local geological heterogeneities and (ii) low amplification of spectral ratios in the recorded seismic signals seems to exclude that the observed seismic damage may be the consequence of significant site effects. When also the large distance from the strongest Apennine’s seismogenic source areas is considered, the possibility that the observed damage may be the consequence of local events should be considered. We discuss the potentiality of the ENE-WSW trending fault as the source of the observed seismic damages, highlighting the supporting evidence as well as the uncertainties of such interpretation.

In this study, we analyse the susceptibility to liquefaction of the Pozzone site, which is located on the northern side of the Fucino lacustrine basin in central Italy. In 1915, this region was struck by a M 7.0 earthquake, which produced widespread coseismic surface effects that were interpreted to be liquefaction-related. However, the interpretation of these phenomena at the Pozzone site is not straightforward. Furthermore, the site is characterized by an abundance of fine-grained sediments, which are not typically found in liquefiable soils. Therefore, in this study, we perform a number of detailed stratigraphic and geotechnical investigations (including continuous-coring borehole, CPTu, SDMT, SPT, and geotechnical laboratory tests) to better interpret these 1915 phenomena and to evaluate the liquefaction potential of a lacustrine environment dominated by fine-grained sedimentation. The upper 18.5 m of the stratigraphic succession comprises fine-grained sediments, including four strata of coarser sediments formed by interbedded layers of sand, silty sand and sandy silt. These strata, which are interpreted to represent the frontal lobes of an alluvial fan system within a lacustrine succession, are highly susceptible to liquefaction. We also find evidence of paleo-liquefaction, dated between 12.1–10.8 and 9.43–9.13 kyrs ago, occurring at depths of 2.1–2.3 m. These data, along with the aforementioned geotechnical analyses, indicate that this site would indeed be liquefiable in a 1915-like earthquake. Although we found a broad agreement among CPTu, DMT and shear wave velocity “simplified procedures” in detecting the liquefaction potential of the Pozzone soil, our results suggest that the use and comparison of different in situ techniques are highly recommended for reliable estimates of the cyclic liquefaction resistance in lacustrine sites characterized by high content of fine-grained soils. In geologic environments similar to the one analysed in this work, where it is difficult to detect liquefiable layers, one can identify sites that are susceptible to liquefaction only by using detailed stratigraphic reconstructions, in situ characterization, and laboratory analyses. This has implications for basic (Level 1) seismic microzonation mapping, which typically relies on the use of empirical evaluations based on geologic maps and pre-existing sub-surface data (i.e., age and type of deposits, prevailing grain size, with particular attention paid to clean sands, and depth of the water table).

We performed geophysical investigations in the northwestern sector of the island of Malta to reconstruct velocity-depth models and provide shear-wave velocity profiles. We have chosen two sites, one located in Rabat (Malta) and another in the Golden Bay area. We used both active (seismic and electrical 2D-tomography, Multichanel Analysis of Surface Waves – MASW) and passive (2D arrays and single-station measurements using ambient noise) geophysical methods. Consistently with previous studies performed in this part of Malta, we have found that both sites are characterized by site resonance in the frequency range 1–2 Hz as an effect of the local lithostratigraphic succession that shows an impedance contrast at about 60–90 m depth. This resonance effect can have important implications on both seismic hazard as well as seismic risk evaluation of the region since the amplified frequency range coincides with the resonance frequencies typical of 5–10 storey buildings which are very diffuse in the Maltese Islands, especially after intense recent urbanization. We also highlight the importance of performing seismic velocity measurements even at rock sites. As an example, the Golden Bay site would be classified as class “A” following the EuroCode EC8 when considering only the outcropping lithology represented by limestone rocks. Conversely the subsoil characterization provided by this study has revealed that this site falls in the EC8 class “B”, stressing the importance of direct geophysical measurements since the a-priori assignment to A-class could lead to wrong estimates in evaluating the site response.

In August 2016, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck Central Italy, starting a devastating seismic sequence, aggravated by other two events of magnitude 5.9 and 6.5, respectively. After the first mainshock, four Italian institutions installed a dense temporary network of 50 seismic stations in an area of 260 km2. The network was registered in the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks with the code 3A and quoted with a Digital Object Identifier (10.13127/SD/ku7Xm12Yy9). Raw data were converted into the standard binary miniSEED format, and organized in a structured archive. Then, data quality and completeness were checked, and all the relevant information was used for creating the metadata volumes. Finally, the 99 Gb of continuous seismic data and metadata were uploaded into the INGV node of the European Integrated Data Archive repository. Their use was regulated by a Memorandum of Understanding between the institutions. After an embargo period, the data are now available for many different seismological studies., Measurement(s)seismic activity • signal conversion functionTechnology Type(s)Sensor • Digitizer DeviceFactor Type(s)locationSample Characteristic - LocationItaly Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.9693602

The Middle Valle Umbra (central Italy) is a NW-SE 20 km long and 10 km wide Quaternary extensional basin located in the internal sector of the Apennine chain. This area historically experienced strong earthquakes that caused significant damages to the outstanding historical heritage. The same area has been recently hit by the 2016 seismic sequence of Amatrice-Visso-Norcia. With the aim to reconstruct the buried geological structures of the basin, a multi-technique geophysical approach was performed. An extended campaign of ambient noise measurements was carried out to investigate the subsurface setting, and to identify the main geological units. We performed three 2D passive arrays to analyze two different sites within the basin; their aperture was between 150 and 752 m for one site and of 48 m for the other site, to characterize the geological units in terms of sediment thickness and shear-wave velocity profile. Data collected were processed with f-k and MSPAC analysis to extract dispersion curves with good resolution in a frequency range of 0.5–10 Hz and 4.5–18 Hz for the two sites respectively. Spectral ratios were computed for every single station ambient noise measurement performed and for all the stations of the bigger array. Our final target is to extend these results to the whole valley, in order to retrieve the attitude of the main geological units and propose a reliable reconstruction of the subsurface geometry of the basin. Another point of this work is to evaluate the site response in the middle of the valley through the analysis of the earthquakes recorded by the accelerometric station IT.CSA (belonging to the Italian Civil Protection) and the corresponding recordings of the nearby rock station IT.ASS.

In the framework of a medium-enthalpy geothermal exploitation project, seismicity and soil gas emissions have been monitored in the area of Castel Giorgio–Torre Alfina (central Italy) since 2014. A dedicated local seismic network, called ReMoTA, allows deepening of the knowledge of the natural local seismicity in terms of source mechanisms, high-quality event localization and magnitude estimation. From November 2014 to May 2016, ReMoTA recorded 846 seismic events with a magnitude range from Md 0.1 to ML 2.8 and with hypocentres between 4 and 8 km depth. Most of these events occurred in six short lasting clusters. On the 30th May 2016 a Mw 4.3 earthquake occurred near Castel Giorgio, followed by almost 1700 aftershocks. The moment tensor solution for the main shock depicts a WNW-ESE oriented normal fault with small right-lateral strike component. An overview of the epicentral distribution of the different clusters recorded since 2014 highlights that the active tectonic structures are orientated principally along the NE–SW and WNW-ESE directions. The relocation of the 1957 Me 4.9 earthquake suggests that this event occurred in the same fault system as of the 2016 seismic sequence. In the study area, there is only one natural emergence (Solfanare) emitting a CO2 dominated gas, having the same chemical and isotopic composition of the gas contained in a cap at the summit of the geothermal reservoir. Apart from small perturbations, no significant compositional variations were recorded during the 2016 seismic sequence in the gas of the Solfanare vents that was analyzed continuously by an automatic gas-chromatographic station. The diffuse soil CO2 flux is monitored since 2013 in six target areas located around the future production and reinjection wells, in order to assess the level of background natural degassing. In all target areas the maximum value of soil CO2 flux has been recorded during the 2016 seismic sequence. However, values remained relatively low (maximum 112 g ⋅m−2 ⋅d−1) and the values of δ13C of the emitted CO2 (−25.25 to −24.22‰ vs. PDB) indicated a shallow biological origin of the gas (by soil respiration). Only at Solfanare high values of diffuse soil CO2 flux were recorded up to a maximum of 20125 g ⋅m−2 ⋅d−1). All the seismicity of the May–June 2016 sequence is located above the ML4.1 main event and is distributed on small distinct faults (such as at San Lorenzo Nuovo and Acquapendente) and triggered by the main shock. The source mechanism provided by the full moment tensor indicates that rupture processes at depth probably deviate from a pure normal fault. The significant contribution of CLVD and isotropic components suggest a possible opening of fluid cracks below the geothermal reservoir hosted in fractured Mesozoic limestones. In spite of the increase of the CO2 flux, no significant changes have been observed in the chemical and isotopic composition of the Solfanare gas. The seismo-tectonic scenario indicates that the Solfanare fault was not activated. Kinematics and orientation of the activated faults suggest a relationship with the Bolsena caldera collapse.

The Amphiteatrum Flavium in Rome (Italy) is one of the most known monument in the world. With the aim of understand the seismic response of the area where the Amphiteatrum Flavium is build and investigate possible soil-structure interactions, we performed a seismic experiment in 2014, based on ambient vibration (AMV) recordings. The measurements were performed at the original ground level, on the foundation and at different floors of the monument. Data were analyzed in terms of standard Fourier analysis (FAS) and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique (H/V). Moreover, we performed an active P-wave seismic tomography analysis of the foundation materials to better understand their influence on the recorded signals. Our results point out that there is a strong temporal and spatial stability of the H/V curves, suggesting a uniform seismic response at the monument site. Conversely, spectral amplitudes of AMV show relevant temporal and spatial variability at the investigated site, due to the daily variations of AMV levels and to the low-pass filtering effect of the stiff Amphiteatrum Flavium foundation that strongly attenuates the signals for frequencies above 4 Hz, i.e. those mostly originated by traffic vibrations. Moreover, we observe that the main vibration frequencies of the super-structure are not present as energetic peaks in the spectra of the ground-motion recorded at its base.

On August 24, 2016, at 01:36 UTC a MW 6.0 earthquake struck an extensive area of the Central Apennines (Italy). It was followed by a large aftershock (MW 5.3, August 24, 02:33 UTC) and about 20 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4.0, located between the towns of Norcia and Amatrice. Due to the mainshock magnitude and the widespread damaging level of buildings in the epicentral area, the Emersito task force has been mobilized by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The aim of Emersito is to carry out and coordinate the monitoring of local site effects, caused by geological and geomorphological settings. During the first days of the seismic emergency, Emersito installed a temporary seismic network for site effect studies at 4 municipalities close to the epicentral area (Amandola, Civitella del Tronto, Montereale and Capitignano), using 22 stations equipped with both velocimetric and accelerometric sensors. The selection of the sites where stations have been installed was mainly driven by the proximity to the epicentral area (without interfere with the rescue operation) and by peculiar geologic and geomorphologic settings (topographic irregularities, fault zones, alluvial plains).