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PurposeThe critical role of diet in climate change mitigation has raised behavioural approaches to the top of the agenda. In this paper, the authors take a critical look at these behavioural approaches and call for a more dynamic, practice-oriented understanding of long-term changes in sustainable food consumption and supply.Design/methodology/approachThis approach is based on the experiences from a long-term experiment promoting sustainable eating in a workplace lunch restaurant using a series of informational and nudging techniques. In the experiment, the authors found that focussing solely on eating behaviours did not help to capture the multi-level change processes mobilised. The authors therefore propose a more dynamic, practice-oriented methodology for examining long-term changes in sustainable eating. The emprical data of the experiment are based on qualitative and quantitative data, consisting of customer survey, customer and kitchen personnel focus group discussions and monitoring data on the use of food items in the restaurant and their climate impacts.FindingsThe results draw attention to a series of practical challenges restaurants face when promoting sustainable eating. Directing analytical attention to tinkering helped to reveal the tensions brought about by labelling and nudging in menu planning and recipe development. The results show how tinkering required attentiveness to customers' wishes in both cases. Nudging offered more freedom for the restaurant to develop menus and recipes. In the case scrutinised, however, nudging customers towards tastier and more satiating vegetarian dishes included the use of dairy. This partly watered down the climate benefits gained from reduced meat consumption.Originality/valueRather than looking separately at changes in consumer behaviour and in the supply of food, the authors show how we need analytical concepts that enable the evaluation of their mutual evolution. Tinkering can assist us in this endeavour. Its adaptive, adjustive character, however, calls for caution. The development of praxis in food services and catering requires critical companions from the transdisciplinary research community. Research can provide systematic knowledge on the impacts of labels and nudges on kitchen praxis. However, research itself also needs to tinker and learn from experiments. This necessitates long-term speculative research strategies.

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

Highlights • Increase in car trips can lead to 400 extra deaths and 20,500 YLL per year. • Rise in motorcycles can respond to 370 extra deaths and over 18,500 YLL per year. • Changes to bus trips can avert over 600 deaths and 31,500 YLL per year. • Road traffic fatalities were the largest contributor to changes in deaths and YLL. Background: Health impact assessments of alternative travel patterns are urgently needed to inform transport and urban planning in African cities, but none exists so far. Objective: To quantify the health impacts of changes in travel patterns in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana. Methods: We estimated changes to population exposures to physical activity, air pollution, and road traffic fatality risk and consequent health burden (deaths and years of life lost prematurely – YLL) in response to changes in transportation patterns. Five scenarios were defined in collaboration with international and local partners and stakeholders to reflect potential local policy actions. Results: Swapping bus and walking trips for car trips can lead to more than 400 extra deaths and 20,500 YLL per year than travel patterns observed in 2009. If part of the rise in motorisation is from motorcycles, we estimated an additional nearly 370 deaths and over 18,500 YLL per year. Mitigating the rise in motorisation by swapping long trips by car or taxi to bus trips is the most beneficial for health, averting more than 600 premature deaths and over 31,500 YLL per year. Without significant improvements in road safety, reduction of short motorised trips in favour of cycling and walking had no significant net health benefits as non-communicable diseases deaths and YLL benefits were offset by increases in road traffic deaths. In all scenarios, road traffic fatalities were the largest contributor to changes in deaths and YLL. Conclusions: Rising motorisation, particularly from motorcycles, can cause significant increase in health burden in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area. Mitigating rising motorisation by improving public transport would benefit population health. Tackling road injury risk to ensure safe walking and cycling is a top priority. In the short term, this will save lives from injury. Longer term it will help halt the likely fall in physical activity.

The scientific literature contains contrasting findings about the climate effects of forest bioenergy, partly due to the wide diversity of bioenergy systems and associated contexts, but also due to differences in assessment methods. The climate effects of bioenergy must be accurately assessed to inform policy‐making, but the complexity of bioenergy systems and associated land, industry and energy systems raises challenges for assessment. We examine misconceptions about climate effects of forest bioenergy and discuss important considerations in assessing these effects and devising measures to incentivize sustainable bioenergy as a component of climate policy. The temporal and spatial system boundary and the reference (counterfactual) scenarios are key methodology choices that strongly influence results. Focussing on carbon balances of individual forest stands and comparing emissions at the point of combustion neglect system‐level interactions that influence the climate effects of forest bioenergy. We highlight the need for a systems approach, in assessing options and developing policy for forest bioenergy that: (1) considers the whole life cycle of bioenergy systems, including effects of the associated forest management and harvesting on landscape carbon balances; (2) identifies how forest bioenergy can best be deployed to support energy system transformation required to achieve climate goals; and (3) incentivizes those forest bioenergy systems that augment the mitigation value of the forest sector as a whole. Emphasis on short‐term emissions reduction targets can lead to decisions that make medium‐ to long‐term climate goals more difficult to achieve. The most important climate change mitigation measure is the transformation of energy, industry and transport systems so that fossil carbon remains underground. Narrow perspectives obscure the significant role that bioenergy can play by displacing fossil fuels now, and supporting energy system transition. Greater transparency and consistency is needed in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting related to bioenergy.

Highlights • We define cross-border climate impacts and identify challenges they may pose. • We develop a conceptual framework to help understand them and their dynamics. • The framework can organise and offer useful insights into past and projected cases. • To demonstrate we use examples of the 2011 Thai floods and Arctic sea ice decline. • The complexity of impact dynamics suggests a need for diverse adaptation responses. Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management.

Highlights • New empirical studies are repeatedly demonstrating the importance of rare species. • However, very little is still known about species rarity in the aquatic realm. • Continental maps suggest variable latitudinal trends in freshwater plants. • Human footprint, past and present-day climates predict rarity hotspots. • Current centers of freshwater plant rarity might shrink within a century. Patterns of species rarity have long fascinated ecologists, yet most of what we know about the natural world stems from studies of common species. A large proportion of freshwater plant species has small range sizes and are therefore considered rare. However, little is known about the mechanisms and geographical distribution of rarity in the aquatic realm and to what extent diversity of rare species in freshwater plants follows their terrestrial counterparts. Here, we present the first in–depth analysis of geographical patterns, potential deterministic ecogeographical factors and projected scenarios of freshwater vascular plant rarity using 50 × 50 km grid cells across Europe (41°N–71°N) and North America (25°N–78°N). Our results suggest that diversity of rare species shows different patterns in relation to latitude on the two continents, and that hotspots of rarity concentrate in a relatively small proportion of the European and North American land surface, especially in mountainous as well as in climatically rare and stable areas. Interestingly, we found no differences among alternative rarity definitions and measures when delineating areas with notably high diversity of rare species. Our findings also indicate that few variables, namely a combination of current climate, Late Quaternary climate–change velocity and human footprint, are able to accurately predict the location of continental centers of rare species diversity. However, these relationships are not geographically homogeneous, and the underlying factors likely act synergistically. Perhaps more importantly, we provide empirical evidence that current centers of rare species diversity are characterized by higher anthropogenic impacts and might shrink disproportionately within this century as the climate changes. Our reported distributional patterns of species rarity align with the known trends in species richness of other freshwater organisms and may help conservation planners make informed decisions mitigating the effects of climate change and other anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

Climate change compels us to rethink the ethics of our dietary choices and has become an interesting issue for ethicists concerned about diets, including animal ethicists. The defenders of veganism have found that climate change provides a new reason to support their cause because many animal-based foods have high greenhouse gas emissions. The new style of argumentation, the ‘climatic argument(s) for veganism’, may benefit animals by persuading even those who are not concerned about animals themselves but worry about climate change. The arguments about the high emissions of animal-based food, and a resulting moral obligation to abstain from eating such products, are an addition to the prior forms of argument for principled veganism grounded on the moral standing of, and concern for, nonhuman animals. In this paper, we examine whether the climatic argument for veganism is convincing. We propose a formulation for the amended version of the argument and discuss its implications and differences compared to the moral obligations of principled veganism. We also reflect upon the implications of our findings on agricultural and food ethics more generally.

This study examined what kind of policy instruments and actions are needed for sustainable dietary change and how a large-scale dietary change would impact the climate, thus analysing the economic impacts of transitioning from animal-based diets to alternative plant-based diets. The transition would require the support of horizontal measures that can be implemented throughout the food system. Shifting the emphasis toward the drivers of food demand and consumption will increase the role of new policy instruments and the actors involved in the food system. Collaborative research between environmental and nutritional sciences with economics and policy analysis is necessary to link nutritional health and environmental objectives with economic and social impacts. Less resource-demanding diets would reduce the impact from the food system and lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Drastic changes in diets and food consumption in Finland would have an impact on primary agricultural production, but the output from the food processing industry would only be slightly affected. However, a successful transition would involve considerable investments in the agricultural and food industry.

Residential wood combustion (RWC) is a major source of climate-impacting emissions, like short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) and biogenic CO2, in Finland. In this paper, we present projections for those emissions from 2015 to 2040. We calculated the climate impact of the emissions using regional temperature potential metrics presented in literature. In our results, the climate impacts are given as global and Arctic temperature responses caused by the studied emissions in a 25 year time span. The results show that SLCF emissions from RWC cause a significant warming impact. Using our selected metrics, SLCF emissions from RWC added to the warming impact of Finland's projected greenhouse gas emissions by 28% in global temperature response and by 170% in Arctic response. When compared with other common heating methods in Finnish detached houses, using a typical Finnish stove (masonry heater) was the least climate-friendly option. Taking biogenic CO2 emissions into account further highlighted this finding. Finally, we assessed the change in climate impact when implementing various emission reduction measures for RWC. With a time span of 25 years, early action was found to be even more crucial than the eventual reductions in annual emissions in 2040. Highlights • RWC is the major source of BC and many other SLCFs in Finland. • SLCF emissions from Finnish RWC have a relatively significant climate impact, compared with GHGs. • Using a stove was found to be the least climate-friendly option to heat a house. • Biogenic CO2 emissions need to be included in assessments. • Early action is key in SLCF emission reduction measures.

Highlights • We tested patterns of multi-faceted beta diversity across mountain streams. • All three facets of beta diversities increase from the north slope to south slope. • Spatial variables were most important in structuring three facets of beta diversity. • Functional and phylogenetic beta diversity complement to taxonomic beta diversity. • Combining multi-faceted biodiversity is essential for management and conservation. There is a growing recognition that examining patterns of ecological communities and their underlying determinants is not only feasible based on taxonomic data, but also functional and phylogenetic approaches. This is because these additional facets can enhance the understanding of the relative contribution of multiple processes in shaping biodiversity. However, few studies have focused on multifaceted beta diversities in lotic macroinvertebrates, especially when considering driving factors operating at multiple spatial scales. Here, we examined the spatial patterns of multi-faceted (i.e., taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic) beta diversity and their components (i.e., turnover and nestedness) of macroinvertebrates in 50 sites in 10 streams situated in the north and south slope of the Qinling Mountains, the geographical dividing line of Northern and Southern China. We found that the streams draining the north slope showed significantly lower values of beta diversity based on all three facets than the streams draining the south slope. Such north-to-south increases of beta diversity were caused by the distinct climatic and local environmental conditions between the sides of the mountain range. Moreover, spatial variables generally played the most important role in structuring all facets and components of beta diversity, followed by local environmental and climatic variables, whereas catchment variables were less important. Despite the similar results of relative contribution of explanatory variables on each beta diversity facet, the details of community-environment relationships (e.g., important explanatory variables and explanatory power) were distinct among different diversity facets and their components. In conclusion, measuring functional and phylogenetic beta diversity provides complementary information to traditional taxonomic approach. Therefore, an integrative approach embracing multiple facets of diversity can better reveal the mechanisms shaping biodiversity, which is essential in assessing and valuing aquatic ecosystems for biodiversity management and conservation.

We present a case study where emission metric values from different studies are applied to estimate global and Arctic temperature impacts of emissions from a northern European country. This study assesses the climate impact of Finnish air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2010, as well as future emissions until 2030. We consider both emission pulses and emission scenarios. The pollutants included are SO2, NOx, NH3, non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), CO, CO2, CH4 and N2O, and our study is the first one for Finland to include all of them in one coherent dataset. These pollutants have different atmospheric lifetimes and influence the climate differently; hence, we look at different climate metrics and time horizons. The study uses the global warming potential (GWP and GWP*), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the regional temperature change potential (RTP) with different timescales for estimating the climate impacts by species and sectors globally and in the Arctic. We compare the climate impacts of emissions occurring in winter and summer. This assessment is an example of how the climate impact of emissions from small countries and sources can be estimated, as it is challenging to use climate models to study the climate effect of national policies in a multi-pollutant situation. Our methods are applicable to other countries and regions and present a practical tool to analyze the climate impacts in multiple dimensions, such as assessing different sectors and mitigation measures. While our study focuses on short-lived climate forcers, we found that the CO2 emissions have the most significant climate impact, and the significance increases over longer time horizons. In the short term, emissions of especially CH4 and BC played an important role as well. The warming impact of BC emissions is enhanced during winter. Many metric choices are available, but our findings hold for most choices.