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Correctly capturing the teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Europe is of importance for seasonal prediction. Here we investigate how systematic model biases may affect this teleconnection. A two-step bias correction process is applied to an atmospheric general circulation model to reduce errors in the climatology. The bias corrections are applied to the troposphere and stratosphere independently and jointly to produce a range of climates. ENSO-type sensitivity experiments are then performed to reveal the impact of differing climatologies on the ENSO–Europe teleconnections. The bias corrections do not affect the response of the tropical atmosphere or the Aleutian low to the strong ENSO anomalies imposed in our experiments. However, in El Niño experiments the anomalous upward wave flux and the response of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex differ between the climatologies. We attribute this to a reduced sensitivity of the upward wave fluxes to the Aleutian low response in the bias correction experiments, where the reduced biases result in a deepened Aleutian low in the base state. Despite the differing responses of the polar vortex, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response is similar between the climatologies, implying that for strong ENSO events the stratospheric pathway may not be the dominant pathway for the ENSO–North Atlantic teleconnection.

The Mediterranean atmosphere is impacted by a variety of natural and anthropogenic aerosols which exert a complex and variable pressure on the regional climate and air quality. This study focuses on the Western Mediterranean Sea (west of longitude 20∘ E) using the full POLarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances version 3 (POLDER-3)/Polarization & Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar (PARASOL) aerosol data record derived from the operational clear-sky ocean algorithm (collection 3) available from March 2005 to October 2013. This 8.5-year satellite data set includes retrievals at 865 nm of the total, fine-, and coarse-mode aerosol optical depth (AOD, AODF, and AODC, respectively), Ångström exponent (AE), and the spherical/non-spherical partition of the coarse-mode AOD (AODCS and AODCNS, respectively), that have been carefully validated over the study region (Formenti et al., 2018). Here, we analyze the spatial distribution, the seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of this ensemble of advanced aerosol products in three latitude bands (34–38, 38–42, and > 42∘ N) and for three sites (Ersa, Barcelona, Lampedusa) distributed on the western basin. POLDER-3 retrieves the high influence of north African desert dust over the region, which largely controls the spatial distributions (south-to-north decreasing gradient) and seasonal cycles (spring/summer maximum) of both AOD and coarse AOD, including its non-spherical component. In contrast, the coarse spherical component of AOD remains relatively homogenously low all year long over the region, whereas fine-mode AODs are generally more elevated in the eastern part of the region of study, especially north of the Adriatic Sea. From 2005 to 2013, annual POLDER-3 AOD evolution shows a decreasing trend of 0.0030 yr−1 in absolute value at 865 nm (0.0060 yr−1 at 550 nm). Such a downward evolution is much more pronounced and spatially extended for AODF (−0.0020 yr−1 at 865 nm) than for AODC. Our analysis also suggests that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index explains a significant part of the interannual variability of POLDER-3 AODC, reflecting its role on the frequency of Saharan dust transport over the region. Finally, the POLDER-3 data set highlights an improvement of air quality related to the fine aerosol component, with a marked evolution toward more frequent occurrence of clean conditions (≥ 75 % of daily AODF-865 nm.05) at the end of the period of study (2010–2013) over most of the Western Mediterranean Sea, and much less evidence of such a large-scale evolution for the coarse fraction. Therefore, despite the high and variable influence of mostly natural north African dust over the region, the POLDER-3 advanced aerosol data set appears sufficiently accurate to successfully resolve the concurrent downward trend of fine, primarily anthropogenic particles, most likely related to reduced emissions in the surrounding European countries.

Numerous paleoclimatic records from lake sediment cores in arid central Asia (ACA) suggest a more humid climate in the Little Ice Age (LIA) cold period than that of the contemporary warm period (the last century). Our high-resolution study of a sediment core from Yileimu Lake presents end members (EMs) of grain-size distributions (~5-year resolution), and major and trace elements (~10-year resolution), including the Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) and Rb/Sr ratio. In contrast to records from these other lakes in ACA, our study indicates a warming and wetting trend in the southern Altay regional climate over the last five centuries. We suggest that continuously increasing snow/ice meltwater from the surrounding high mountains related to an increasing trend in atmospheric temperature, and increasing winter snowfall triggered by a decreasing trend in winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, have dominated the regional climate in the southern Altay Mountains during 1620–1835 AD. We also suggest that temperature dependent evaporative losses greatly exceeding the water input to the lake, and reduced summer precipitation, caused the drought events during 1586–1620 and 1835–1870 AD. Heavy summer precipitation associated with significant increases in the local moisture supply induced by intense evaporation of snow/ice meltwater in the alpine and gorge terrain of the Altay Mountains played a critical role in the summer floods around the 1900s AD.

In August 2018, a remarkable polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland, a perennial ice zone where thick sea ice cover persists. In order to investigate the formation process of this polynya, satellite observations, a coupled ice-ocean model, ocean profiling data, and atmosphere reanalysis data were applied. We found that the thinnest sea ice cover in August since 1978 (mean value of 1.1 m, compared to the average value of 2.8 m during 1978−2017) and the modest southerly wind caused by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (mean value of 0.82, compared to the climatological value of −0.02) were responsible for the formation and maintenance of this polynya. The opening mechanism of this polynya differs from the one formed in February 2018 in the same area caused by persistent anomalously high wind. Sea ice drift patterns have become more responsive to the atmospheric forcing due to thinning of sea ice cover in this region.

The mid-latitudes are exposed to outbreaks of Arctic cold air almost every winter. A stretch of below-normal temperatures prevailed over Eastern Europe, the Balkan Peninsula, parts of Mediterranean region and Turkey in the 2018/2019 winter. Extremely low temperatures associated with cold-air advection and considerable snowfalls were observed in parts of Turkey, especially during December and January. This study aims to investigate the association of observed cold anomalies with changes in the upper atmospheric conditions, especially considering polar vortex weakening, from December 2018 to January 2019, when the cold anomalies were more persistent over the country. The findings indicate that the observed cold anomalies during the two-month period were caused by several factors, including northerly and north-westerly Arctic air mass advection from an omega block pattern and polar vortex split, respectively. A persisting ridge across Western Europe caused meridional flow channels from the Arctic region to extend far towards the south. In addition, a deep upper low developed over north-eastern Europe and pushed a strong cold front towards east-central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. The polar vortex split was not as persistent across Eurasia as across North America but still led to cold anomalies, especially in early January 2019. Following the polar vortex split, an Arctic cold advection moved downstream and reinforced the southward displacement of the Siberian high, leading to extended cold anomalies and a stretch of below-normal temperatures over Turkey. An omega blocking pattern across the Western and Northern Europe also enhanced the northerly and north-westerly cold-air advection. In addition, a few intense cut-off lows, which moved across the eastern Mediterranean and Black Seas, intensified the local cold-air advection effects. The negative phase of the arctic oscillation corresponded well with the period of extremely cold temperatures observed over Europe during the 2018/2019 winter. The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation variability on the cold anomalies portrayed a conflicting result for Turkey when compared to the Northern US, Canada and Northern Europe, where the cold-air outbreaks are usually associated with its negative phase. It is also likely that the decreasing Barents-Kara Sea ice favoured Ural blocking that led below-normal temperatures that impacted Eastern Europe and Turkey.

It was found in previous observational studies that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can modulate the teleconnection over the Atlantic basin related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). In t...

Strong oceanic convection plays a crucial role in the variability of the global climate. In this study, we investigate extreme convection in the Lofoten Basin (LB) of the Norwegian Sea using Argo profiles. Mixed layer depth (MLD) is the main metric characterizing convection intensity. MLD exceeds 1000 m in March–April and December 2010 in the Lofoten Basin Eddy (LBE), whereas the mean MLD is about 200 m and seldom exceeds 400 m in the basin. We connect the extreme convection events with water volume formed at mid-depth of the central LB, between 1000 m depth and the isosteric surface s07. Analytical assessments of final mixing depth demonstrate perfect correspondence to measured values of MLD, indicating variations in the buoyancy flux and stratification as the main reasons for MLD variability in the basin. This variability is easily explained as a result of heat release to the atmosphere over the basin. Atmospheric conditions during extreme convection events are described. Northerly winds are as common as dominating southwesterly winds during the months with extreme convective events. We analyze 32 cases of extreme convective events with MLD exceeding 350 m and reveal that composite maps of sea level pressure (SLP) and surface heat flux match well with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)−/East Atlantic Pattern (EAP)− pattern of atmospheric variability in the Northern Atlantic, with the negative NAO pattern prevailing in the climate during winter–spring. The heat release is the major trigger of extreme convection. We establish the stronger heat release associated with the extreme convection events in the LB.

The review and analysis of the long-term variability of the average annual and average air temperature for winter and summer, as well as the values of the amounts of atmospheric precipitation in St. Petersburg were carried out. The correlation between the dynamics of the values of these indicators and the intensity of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in the form of the NAO1 index (North Atlantic Oscillation) was estimated. The possible environmental consequences of climate change in the region of St. Petersburg are justified.

For the last few decades the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have seen an increasing number of temperature extreme events. It has been suggested that some of these extremes are related to planetary wave activity. In this study we identify wave propagation regions at 300 hPa using the ERA-Interim dataset from 1980 to 2017 and link them to temperature extremes in densely populated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Most studies have used background flow fields at monthly or seasonal scale to investigate wave propagation. For a phenomenon that is influenced by threshold incidents and nonlinear processes, this can distort the net Rossby wave signal. A novel aspect of our investigation lies in the use of daily data to study wave propagation allowing it to be diagnosed for limited but important periods across a wider range of latitudes, including the polar region. We show that winter temperature extremes in the midlatitudes can be associated with circulation anomalies in both the Arctic and the tropics, while the relative importance of these areas differs according to the specific midlatitude region. In particular, wave trains connecting the tropical Pacific and Atlantic may be associated with temperature anomalies in North America and Siberia. Arctic seas are markedly important for Eurasian regions. Analysis of synoptic temperature extremes suggests that pre-existing local temperature anomalies play a key role in the development of those extremes, as well as amplification of large-scale wave trains. We also demonstrate that warm Arctic regions can create cold outbreaks in both Siberia and North America.

In this study, we investigate the dominant modes of surface air temperature variations of the cold season (from November through to the next March) and the warm season (from May to September) over Central Asia, and their associations with large-scale climate patterns for the period of 1979–2016. The first two modes of the cold season surface air temperature (CSAT) over Central Asia, obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, feature the monopole structure and the north-south dipole pattern, respectively. For the warm season surface air temperature (WSAT), the leading two EOF modes are characterized by the homogenous structure and the northwest-southeast seesaw pattern, respectively. Further analysis indicates that the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies play key roles in the CSAT and WSAT variations over Central Asia. The CSAT variation over Central Asia is closely related to the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), while the WSAT variation is tightly tied to the East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern (EAWR) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These large-scale climate patterns tend to cause the CSAT and WSAT anomalies over Central Asia via their effects on regional geopotential heights, warming advections, and other processes. Positive geopotential height anomalies and increased downward solar radiations generally favor positive SAT anomalies over Central Asia. Moreover, the warm advections are also conducive to the formation of positive SAT anomalies over Central Asia. Our findings are expected to facilitate the improvement of understanding and predicting the CSAT and WSAT variations over Central Asia.

Himalayan glaciers are melting due to atmospheric warming, with the potential to limit access to water for more than 25 % of the global population that resides in these glacier meltwater catchments. Black carbon has been implicated as a factor that is contributing to Himalayan glacier melt, but its sources and mechanisms of delivery to the Himalayas remain controversial. Here, we provide a 211-year ice core record spanning 1781–1992 CE for refractory black carbon (rBC) deposition from the Dasuopu glacier ice core that has to date provided the highest-elevation ice core record (7200 m). We report an average rBC concentration of 1.5 µg L−1 (SD=5.0, n=1628) over the 211-year period. An increase in the frequency and magnitude of rBC deposition occurs after 1877 CE, accompanied by decreased snow accumulation associated with a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index to a positive phase. Typically, rBC is deposited onto Dasuopu glacier during the non-monsoon season, and short-lived increases in rBC concentration are associated with periods of drought within neighboring regions in northwestern India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Using a combination of spectral and back-trajectory analyses, as well as a comparison with a concurrent analysis of trace metals at equivalent depths in the same ice core, we show that biomass burning resulting from dry conditions is a source of rBC to the central Himalaya and is responsible for deposition that is up to 60 times higher than the average rBC concentration over the time period analyzed. We suggest that biomass burning is a significant source of rBC to the central Himalaya and that the rBC record can be used to identify periods of drought in nearby regions that are upwind of Dasuopu glacier.

An understanding of multi-annual behaviour in streamflow allows for better estimation of the risks associated with hydrological extremes. This can enable improved preparedness for streamflow-dependant services, such as freshwater ecology, drinking water supply and agriculture. Recently, efforts have focused on detecting relationships between long-term hydrological behaviour and oscillatory climate systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO). For instance, the approximate 7 year periodicity of the NAO has been detected in groundwater-level records in the North Atlantic region, providing potential improvements to the preparedness for future water resource extremes due to their repetitive, periodic nature. However, the extent to which these 7-year, NAO-like signals are propagated to streamflow, and the catchment processes that modulate this propagation, are currently unknown. Here, we show statistically significant evidence that these 7-year periodicities are present in streamflow (and associated catchment rainfall), by applying multi-resolution analysis to a large data set of streamflow and associated catchment rainfall across the UK. Our results provide new evidence for spatial patterns of NAO periodicities in UK rainfall, with areas of greatest NAO signal found in southwest England, south Wales, Northern Ireland and central Scotland, and show that NAO-like periodicities account for a greater proportion of streamflow variability in these areas. Furthermore, we find that catchments with greater subsurface pathway contribution, as characterised by the baseflow index (BFI), generally show increased NAO-like signal strength and that subsurface response times (as characterised by groundwater response time – GRT), of between 4 and 8 years, show a greater signal presence. Our results provide a foundation of understanding for the screening and use of streamflow teleconnections for improving the practice and policy of long-term streamflow resource management.

The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal structure of drought over the continental United States (CONUS) and their teleconnection at different timescales from observations and climate models. We use the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 12- and 24-month timescales as the drought index. Spatial patterns of drought regimes are delineated by using the principal component analysis (PCA) while the temporal characteristics of the variability of each drought pattern and teleconnection with climate indices are analyzed by using the wavelet analysis. Wavelet coherence of the drought pattern and four climate indices: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed. The results show that major drought patterns are located over the Northwest, South, Upper Midwest, and East regions. The spatial pattern of the drought regimes is similar for the 12- and 24-month timescale drought. ENSO influences the drought over West and South at decadal timescales throughout the study period (1950–2015) while intermittent significant coherence is observed at interannual timescale. The coherence of NAO and PDO with SPEI-12 is decreased during recent decades. Generally, regional climate model (RCM)-simulated drought patterns are more localized in a smaller area over the region compared to the spatial extent of observed drought patterns. Power spectra of seasonal to interannual variability (2–5-yr period) of all four drought patterns from RCM simulations are similar to those from the observations. However, at larger periodicities (decadal variations) among-RCM spread increases with increasing periods.

Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a vital role in Earth’s climate variability. Climate change has the potential to alter the causes and characteristics of AMOC multidecadal variability. Here we use a coupled climate model to simulate AMOC multidecadal variability under three distinct atmospheric CO2 concentrations: Last Glacial Maximum, preindustrial, and 4 × preindustrial levels. Firstly, we discover that AMOC multidecadal variability exhibits a shortened period and a reduced amplitude with increasing atmospheric CO2. We find that these changes in AMOC variability are largely related to enhanced ocean stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic with increasing CO2 which in turn changes the characteristics of westward propagating oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. Our analysis indicates that the shortened period is primarily due to the increased speed of free oceanic Rossby waves, and the reduced amplitude is mainly due to the reduced magnitude of atmospherically-forced oceanic Rossby waves. Mean flow effects, in the form of eastward mean zonal advection and westward geostrophic self-advection, need to be considered as they largely increase the speed of Rossby waves and hence allow for a better estimate of the changes in the period and amplitude of AMOC variability. Secondly, to explore the possible linkage between atmospheric variability and AMOC fluctuations under each CO2 concentration in a qualitative manner, we analyze the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the AMOC and find a significant negative correlation between the two only under the preindustrial levels where the NAO leads the AMOC by 3–11 years.

The frequency distribution of winter extreme cold events (ECEs) in North China and the influences of mid-latitude sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Northern Hemisphere are studied. The results show that (1) the frequency of single station ECEs (SSECEs) in winter increases from southeast to northwest, with a decrease before 2008 and then a significant increase. This trend abrupt change occurs in late winter. (2) When the SST in the North Pacific shows an “El-Niño-like” anomaly in winter, it triggers the negative Arctic Oscillation (−AO), positive Pacific North America (+PNA), and positive Eurasia Pacific (+EUP) atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the mid-lower troposphere. As a result, the ridge to south of Lake Baikal becomes stronger. Meanwhile, SST in the North Atlantic shows a “reversed C” negative anomaly with North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), (+PNA)-like and (+EUP)-like patterns, and the ridge to southwest of Lake Baikal becomes stronger. Furthermore, both cause the Siberian High to become weaker in the north and stronger in the south. With the weaker East Asia subtropical jet and stronger East Asia winter monsoon, these factors lead to a significant increase of SSECE frequency in North China. (3) When the SSTA shows an “El Niño-like” developing pattern from summer to autumn in the North Pacific, the winter SSECE frequency will be higher. (4) The purported mechanism between the mid-latitude SSTA and the winter SSECE frequency in North China is the following: the SSTA in the North Pacific in summer and autumn excites atmospheric teleconnection wave trains, and the Atlantic stores these anomaly signals. In winter, the interaction between the SSTAs in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic enhances the Eurasian teleconnection wave train. With the upstream fluctuation energy dispersing downstream, the wave train centers move eastward with the season, resulting in an increase in the frequency of the SSECEs.

Future changes in the mid-latitude wintertime atmospheric circulation are studied from a weather regimes perspective. The analysis is based on daily geopotential height at 500 hPa during the extended winter season (NDJFM) from both CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical and scenario simulations. The model performance in reproducing the observed weather regimes during the historical period in the Euro-Atlantic (EAT) and Pacific-North American (PAC) sectors is first evaluated, showing a general improvement of CMIP6 models in terms of regime patterns, frequencies and variance ratio. The projected circulation changes in the future climate (2050-2100) under the different scenarios are analysed in terms of the change in the frequency and persistence of the regimes. Significant positive trends are found for the frequency of NAO+ and negative trends for the Scandinavian Blocking and Atlantic Ridge regimes. This confirms the tendency for the zonalization of the circulation in the EAT sector, with decreased latitudinal variability of the jet stream. For the PAC sector, significant changes are seen for the Pacific Trough regime (increase) and the Bering Ridge (decrease), while there is no agreement in the response of the two PNA regimes. The spread among the model responses in the most extreme scenarios is analysed through a multi-linear regression approach and linked to different levels of warming in the polar stratosphere, the tropical upper troposphere, the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models.

Interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its links to regional climate during summer are investigated based on evaporation data from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution dataset. An EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis performed on the monthly means (i.e., separately for June, July, August, and September time series) revealed two leading modes of evaporation variability, characterized by the monopole (EOF-1) and zonal dipole (EOF-2) patterns. These modes explain altogether more than 60% of the total variability of Mediterranean evaporation for each month. In all summer months, the EOF-1 reflects an interdecadal change signal characterized by below normal evaporation in 1970–2000 and above normal evaporation before and after this period. This mode is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The EOF-2 pattern reflects interannual variations of Mediterranean evaporation that differ significantly from month to month. The reason for this difference is the changing roles of regional teleconnections, such as the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), the Scandinavian and East Atlantic teleconnections, and the Asian monsoon. The impacts of these teleconnections on Mediterranean evaporation are highly variable both in space and time. The largest impact of the SNAO on Mediterranean evaporation is detected in early summer, but its impact weakens and disappears towards the end of the summer season. An opposite tendency is obtained with the Asian monsoon, having the strongest impact on evaporation in late summer. The study suggests that these teleconnections impact Mediterranean evaporation mostly through atmospheric dynamics (the SNAO) and thermodynamics (the Asian monsoon) in early and late summer respectively.

We study the impact of horizontal resolution in setting the North Atlantic gyre circulation and representing the ocean–atmosphere interactions that modulate the low-frequency variability in the region. Simulations from five state-of-the-art climate models performed at standard and high-resolution as part of the High-Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) were analysed. In some models, the resolution is enhanced in the atmospheric and oceanic components whereas, in some other models, the resolution is increased only in the atmosphere. Enhancing the horizontal resolution from non-eddy to eddy-permitting ocean produces stronger barotropic mass transports inside the subpolar and subtropical gyres. The first mode of inter-annual variability is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in all the cases. The rapid ocean response to it consists of a shift in the position of the inter-gyre zone and it is better captured by the non-eddy models. The delayed ocean response consists of an intensification of the subpolar gyre (SPG) after around 3 years of a positive phase of NAO and it is better represented by the eddy-permitting oceans. A lagged relationship between the intensity of the SPG and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is stronger in the cases of the non-eddy ocean. Then, the SPG is more tightly coupled to the AMOC in low-resolution models.

In this study, annual and seasonal precipitation trends and their connection with large-scale climate indices in the Qinling Mountains (QMs) were investigated using the innovative trend analysis (ITA), based on observed monthly precipitation data between 1959 and 2016 from 32 meteorological stations. The results indicated a declining trend in annual precipitation in the QMs. Seasonally, a decreasing trend was also observed in spring and autumn, while increasing trends were observed in summer and winter. Spring and autumn precipitations significantly contributed to this observed decline in annual precipitation. More importantly, both low and high values indicated a declining trend, which would have a significant influence on ecology and livelihood in the QMs. Additionally, the results of wavelet coherence showed that annual precipitation is strongly associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), South Asian Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), South China Sea Summer Monsoon Index (SCSMI), and Southwest Australian Circulation Index (SWACI). However, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West African Summer Monsoon Index (WASMI) was insignificant, and seasonally, EASMI had negative effects on the precipitation in each season. It was also observed that spring and autumn precipitations were more sensitive to SOI than SWACI, while SASMI had a strong positive relationship with winter precipitation, and SCSMI was more negatively related to autumn and winter precipitation. This study will provide scientific basis for precipitation forecast, prevention, and mitigation of flood in the future.

The multidecadal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (IOSST) has an important impact on both the regional Indian Ocean climate and the global climate. Here, we explore multidecadal variability in the annual IOSST. Observational analysis shows that the annual IOSST multidecadal variability is not only related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but also to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO leads by 15–20 years the detrended annual IOSST in which the PDO signal of the same period has been removed. Further analysis reveals that the NAO leads the annual IOSST multidecadal variability through its leading effect on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects the vertical wind anomaly in the Indian Ocean region through the Atlantic–Indian Ocean multidecadal teleconnection (AIMT), which in turn affects the net longwave radiation in the Indian Ocean region, thus driving the annual IOSST multidecadal variability. A Hasselmann model based on NAO and PDO further verify the joint influence of the NAO and PDO on the multidecadal variability of the IOSST. A PDO-based linear model and a climate model that incorporates the NAO signal are also constructed for the annual IOSST. Results show that the climate model with the NAO signal can better simulate the annual IOSST. This again verifies that the NAO is part of the annual IOSST multidecadal variability source, indicating that the annual IOSST variability may be due to the combined influences of the NAO and PDO.

Using the World Meteorological Organization definition and a threshold-based classification technique, simulations of vortex displacement and split sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are evaluated for four Chinese models (BCC-CSM2- MR, FGOALS-f3-L, FGOALS-g3, and NESM3) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) with the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) as a baseline. Compared with six or seven SSWs in a decade in JRA-55, three models underestimate the SSW frequency by ~50%, while NESM3 doubles the SSW frequency. SSWs mainly appear in midwinter in JRA-55, but one-month climate drift is simulated in the models. The composite of splits is stronger than displacements in both the reanalysis and most models due to the longer pulse of positive eddy heat flux before onset of split SSWs. A wavenumber-1-like temperature anomaly pattern (cold Eurasia, warm North America) before onset of displacement SSWs is simulated, but cold anomalies are mainly confined to North America after displacement SSWs. Although the lower tropospheric temperature also displays a wavenumber-1-like pattern before split SSWs, most parts of Eurasia and North America are covered by cold anomalies after split SSWs in JRA-55. The models have different degrees of fidelity for the temperature anomaly pattern before split SSWs, but the wavenumber-2-like temperature anomaly pattern is well simulated after split SSWs. The center of the negative height anomalies in the Pacific sector before SSWs is sensitive to the SSW type in both JRA-55 and the models. A negative North Atlantic Oscillation is simulated after both types of SSWs in the models, although it is only observed for split SSWs.

The atmospheric impact on sea level variability in the Baltic Sea on different time scales was investigated. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Scandinavia (SCAND) patterns, were employed, and a strong but non-stationary relationship was found. The SCAND appeared to be most relevant to the mean monthly Baltic Sea level variations throughout the year. A negative correlation indicates that a cyclonic centre over Scandinavia in the negative phase of SCAND enhances western circulation, which then triggers water inflow through the Danish straits. The AO annular mode reveals a positive and slightly stronger relationship with the Baltic Sea level than the NAO. The rapid increases in the Baltic Sea level recognized in this study, namely, those exceeding 24 cm within a 5-day period, mainly occur in the cold season. These increases are associated with the development of specific synoptic conditions in the Euro-Atlantic region, characterized by a shift from high to low pressure over Europe and a rapid increase in the pressure gradient during the week preceding the sea level rise. Rapid increases are associated with cyclones coming from the North Atlantic, which move 1500–2000 km during the week preceding the strong rise of the Baltic waters. The cyclone tracks may be shifted north or south, while the final position is over the Norwegian Sea.

Atmospheric blockings are generally associated with large-scale high-pressure systems that interrupt west-to-east atmospheric flow in mid and high latitudes. Blockings cause several days of quasi-stationary weather conditions, and therefore can result in monthly or seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events on the affected regions. In this paper, the long-term coupled CERA-20C reanalysis data from 1901 to 2010 are used to evaluate the links between blocking events over the North Atlantic north of 35° N, and atmospheric and oceanic modes of climate variability on decadal time scales. This study indicates more frequent and longer lasting blocking events than previous studies using other reanalyses products. A strong relationship was found between North Atlantic blocking events and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Baffin Island–West Atlantic (BWA) indices, in fall, winter and spring. More blocking events occur during the negative phases of the NAO index and positive phases of the BWA mode. In some situations, the BWA patterns provide clearer links with the North Atlantic blocking occurrence than with the NAO alone. The correlation between the synchronous occurrences of AMO and blocking is generally weak, although it does increase for a lag of about 6–10 years. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) furthermore demonstrates a significant two-way causal effect between blocking occurrences and the NAO and BWA indices. Finally, while we find no significant trends in blocking frequencies over the last 110 years in the Northern Hemisphere, these events become longer lasting in summer and fall, and more intense in spring in the North Atlantic.

The early summer (May–June) precipitation in Northeast Asia (NEA) accounts for about 25% of the annual total, which is important for the local agriculture production. The potential influencing factors and the related mechanisms of early summer NEA precipitation variability, however, are not fully understood. Our study suggests that a dipolar NEA precipitation anomaly pattern in May–June highly resembles the second leading mode of NEA early summer precipitation variability, can be induced by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through the “capacitor” effect of the Barents sea ice (BSI). Further analysis indicated that during negative NAO winter, anomalous northerlies controlling the Barents Sea tend to increase the local sea ice and reach its peak in spring. The BSI anomalies persist from spring to the following early summer generates the “positive–negative–positive” geopotential height anomalies occupying the Arctic, Kamchatka, and extra-tropical western Pacific. The southerlies on the west flank of the anomalous extra-tropical western Pacific anticyclone advect sufficient water vapor from the Pacific to southern NEA, concurrent with lower-troposphere convergence, leading to rich rainfall over Korea and southern Japan. In contrast, the lower-level divergence may reduce the precipitation over northern NEA. At last, a physical-based empirical model is established using the winter NAO index. It shows that the winter NAO provides a promising predictability source for this anomalous NEA dipolar precipitation pattern.

Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation, whose first leading mode presents a dipole oscillation between the northeastern and southeastern TP, plays important roles in the water cycle and atmospheric circulation. Using a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system to constrain the atmospheric component in a coupled model with a global atmospheric reanalysis product, this study demonstrates significant improvements in predicting the interannual variation of summer precipitation over the eastern TP, capturing the strong reversal mode between the northeastern and southeastern TP. These improvements are mainly attributed to the strong air–sea coupling over the North Atlantic (NA) and its remote impacts on the TP precipitation. This coupling allows observation-constrained atmosphere to significantly influence initial conditions (ICs) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the NA area and then obviously affect predictions of both NA SST and summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), which affects the downstream TP atmospheric circulation through the wave train of Eliassen-Palm (EP) stationary wave flux. This study highlights the importance of NA air–sea coupling in the interannual predictability of TP precipitation and suggests a new source of interannual predictability of TP precipitation.

Temperature in northeast Greenland is expected to rise at a faster rate than the global average as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Associated with this temperature rise, precipitation is also expected to increase as a result of increased evaporation from a warmer and ice-free Arctic Ocean. In recent years, numerous palaeoclimate projects have begun working in the region with the aim of improving our understanding of how this highly sensitive region responds to a warmer world. However, a lack of meteorological stations within the area makes it difficult to place the palaeoclimate records in the context of present-day climate. This study aims to improve our understanding of precipitation and moisture source dynamics over a small arid region located at 80∘ N in northeast Greenland. The origin of water vapour for precipitation over the study region is detected by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic, which is applied to reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) from 1979 to 2017. While precipitation amounts are relatively constant during the year, the regional moisture sources display a strong seasonality. The most dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45∘ N and the ice-free Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, while in summer the patterns shift towards local and north Eurasian continental sources. During the positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in larger and more variable precipitation amounts. Testing the hypothesis that retreating sea ice will lead to an increase in moisture supply remains challenging based on our data. However, we found that moisture sources are increasing in the case of retreating sea ice for some regions, in particular in October to December. Although the annual mean surface temperature in the study region has increased by 0.7 ∘C per decade (95 % confidence interval [0.4, 1.0] ∘C per decade) according to ERA-Interim data, we do not detect any change in the amount of precipitation with the exception of autumn where precipitation increases by 8.2 [0.8, 15.5] mm per decade over the period. This increase is consistent with future predicted Arctic precipitation change. Moisture source trends for other months and regions were non-existent or small.

Utilizing the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), the influence of sudden Arctic sea-ice thinning on North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events is investigated on a sub-seasonal time scale. ...

The results of an analysis of variations and linear trends in the column content and vertical distribution of NO2 are presented based on 30-year spectrometric measurements at Zvenigorod Scientific Station, A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, located in the western Moscow region. In particular, we derive seasonally dependent estimates of NO2 trends and relationships of NO2 with the quasi-biennial oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, and the 11-year cycle of solar activity.

In this study, the relationship between vegetation dynamics and atmospheric patterns over Iceland from 2001-2019 has been assessed using remote sensing. This study is based on MODIS NDVI images, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that the vegetation coverage in Iceland reaches a maximum in the period from the middle of July to late August, with an average of about 65% of the total area (66858 km2). There is not a strong relationship between NAO phases and the occurrence of the dry (less vegetation) or green months, which means that a dry year can be accompanied by a negative NAO phase (i.e. July 2009 with NDVI anomaly=-3.35 and NAO =-2.15) or with a positive phase (September 2005 with NDVI anomaly=-2.23 and NAO=0.63). The most important factor influencing the occurrence of months with denser/less dense vegetation is shifting west/eastward of Greenland Low height (GL), which is accompanied by a green/dry month in Iceland, respectively. The knowledge of this can help us to understand the variations in Iceland's vegetation and also enables us to have a closer look at the impact of changes in global atmospheric patterns on the vegetation productivity in Iceland.

This interdisciplinary study presents a human perspective on climatic variations by combining documentary, discursive, instrumental, and proxy data. Historical sources were used to characterize climate variations along the coast of Labrador/Nunatsiavut during the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. Written and early instrumental archives provided original information on the state and perception of climate before the establishment of meteorological stations, which permitted an intra-annual perspective on climatic variations. Written sources depicted the sensitivity of humans to climatic variations. Exceptional seasonal climatic events were extracted from documentary and discursive sources, which were complemented by tree-ring and early instrumental data. From 1780 to 1900, data indicated a succession of relatively warm and cold episodes. Most warm periods were described as stormy and variable. The final part of the studied records showed cold conditions from 1900 to 1925 and warm conditions from 1925 to 1950. Historical sources helped to discriminate a seasonal signal. Mild autumn-winter conditions were recorded since 1910 in relation with positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. Relatively warm spring-summer conditions were recorded after 1920, which corresponds to a phase of positive anomaly of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

The solar influence on long-term climatic processes of Earth has been studied with the use of long-term series of historical reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiation (TSI) based on telescopic observations since 1610 and reconstructions of the complex climatic phenomenon of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) based on its manifestations in various biological systems of the region. Partial Fourier Approximation (PFA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) are used for joint analysis of these time series. The fluctuations of the TSI and NAO indices have a number of common, but antiphase, cycles, especially in the low frequency band with periodicity 60–80 years. The weak TSI variations (0.01–0.03% of TSI average) almost completely determine all NAO variations with periods of more than 20 years. The main Schwabe solar cycle manifests itself weakly and unstably in the NAO.

Utilizing three different sets of reanalysis data, this study examines the long- and short-lived observed positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events (referred to as NAO+_LE and NAO+_SE) and long- and short-lived observed negative NAO events (referred to as NAO−_LE and NAO−_SE). Composite results indicate that the NAO-like circulation anomalies associated with the long-lived NAO events can reach the stratosphere, while they are primarily confined to the troposphere in the short-lived NAO events. Thus, the coupling/connection of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies is much better (worse) in the long-lived (short-lived) NAO events. A series of modified stratospheric initial-value experiments conducted with a simplified model indicate that a better (worse) connection between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies in the initial-value fields tend to gradually induce the NAO-like tropospheric circulation anomalies in the troposphere on the subsequent days, and thus naturally elongate (reduce) the lifetimes of the original NAO events by altering the tropospheric synoptic eddy vorticity flux over the North Atlantic region.

The swap in abundance between two Calanus species in the North Sea during the 1980s constitutes a quintessential example of regime shift, with important ecosystemic and economic repercussions because these copepods constitute a major component of the diet of larval and juvenile cods. It is hypothesized that this transition was driven by gradual changes in primary productivity, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea surface temperatures (SST), and yet how these factors contribute to the population dynamics of these two species and the overall regime shift remains unclear. Here, we combine a highly resolved and spatially structured longitudinal dataset with population dynamics theory-based models to obtain a thorough and more detailed description of populations' responses to the regime shift observed in the North Sea. Our analyses highlight that this transition exhibits a clear spatial structure and involved a decoupling between the dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus and the NAO in western regions and between Calanus helgolandicus and SST in the eastern regions of the North Sea. Consequently, the observed switch in abundance between these species reflects the interaction between species-specific attributes, a well-defined spatial structure with a marked east-west axis and a decoupling between the ecological drivers and Calanus population dynamics following the shift. Succinctly, we suspect that higher water temperatures have favored C. helgolandicus and resulted in restrictive conditions for C. finmarchicus, eventually overshadowing the effects of NAO detected in historical records. Overall, our study illustrates how population dynamics theory can be successfully employed to disentangle the complex and multifactorial nature of a regime shift in response to gradually changing environmental conditions.

The impact of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the subsequent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Atlantic has experienced obvious interdecadal changes during 1950–2015. During 1995–2015, the negative (positive) phase of the wintertime NAO favors positive (negative) SST anomalies over the tropical Atlantic in the subsequent spring–summer, whereas the NAO–SST connection is insignificant during 1970–94 and is confined to the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) during 1950–69. Compared to 1970–94, the much stronger influence on the NTA SST during 1995–2015 and 1950–69 is associated with a southward shift of the southern boundary of the NAO. During 1995–2015, the inverted NAO-related warming of the tropical Atlantic consists of three stages: 1) the pronounced increase in SST over the subtropical North Atlantic (SNA) and the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) during December–January, 2) the pronounced increase in SST over the northwestern tropical Atlantic (NWTA) during February–April, and 3) the persistent warming over the tropical Atlantic during May–August. The increases in SST over the SNA and the TSA are attributed to significant positive latent heat flux anomalies via the wind–evaporation effect, which are connected by the suppressed regional Hadley circulation. Afterward, the associated anomalous downward motion over the NWTA persists into February–April, which induces more incoming shortwave radiation and results in a significant increase in the local SST via the cloud–radiation effect. In contrast, during 1950–69, due to the decreased interannual variability of the vertical motion over the NWTA, the anomalous downward branch aloft and the low-level cross-equatorial northwesterly winds associated with the inverted NAO are not evident, and thus the regions with an increase in SST are confined to the Northern Hemisphere.

The Arctic, one of the most sensitive components of the Earth's climate system, experienced pronounced climatic fluctuations during the Late Holocene. In order to obtain a detailed record of past environmental and climatic variability, sedimentary cores from two interconnected infilled depositional basins in the Kobbefjord area, southwestern Greenland, were retrieved and subjected to a multi-proxy investigation. The absolute chronostratigraphy was established through radiocarbon (C-14) and short-lived radioisotope (Pb-210, Cs-137) dating. We also analysed magnetic susceptibility, grain size, X-ray fluorescence element composition, total content of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur, biogenic silica and diatom assemblages. The palaeoenvironmental reconstruction presented from the upper basin records similar to 800 years of sedimentation in a former shallow Arctic lake/pond that was modulated by catchment processes and regional hydroclimate. The record is dominated by alternating periods of increased organic and clastic deposition, suggesting warmer/drier and colder/wetter climate, respectively. Comparison of our records with other proxy-based lacustrine, marine and glacier records and instrumental measurements from Greenland and the North Atlantic reveals common climatic trends, consistent with the inferred North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. Periods at similar to 800-600, similar to 320-220 and similar to 140-30 cal. a BP correspond to the main cold phases. The earliest climatic deterioration coincides with the demise of the nearby Norse Western Settlement. The most recent cold period represents the culmination of the Little Ice Age with the maximum Holocene advances of Greenland glaciers. Ameliorated conditions predominated at similar to 550-320 and similar to 220-140 cal. a BP. The evolution of both water bodies is concluded by transition into oligotrophic peat bogs after complete infilling of the basins at similar to 30 cal. a BP. Despite differences in proxy signals between the coring sites, this study endorses the usefulness of shallow lake/pond sediments from infilled basins for environmental reconstructions, as long as local depositional processes do not mask the external driving factors.

We have established the relationships of quasicyclic components in changes of air temperature and precipitation in Belarus with large-scale modes of general variability of the atmosphere and ocean in the Atlantic-European region. When the summer air temperature changes in Belarus and in Eastern Europe, a quasi-60-year oscillation is identified, which coincides in phase with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. It is shown that the time series of winter air temperature in Belarus contain a quasi-8-year component synchronized with a similar component of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, the periods of acceleration and deceleration of winter warming in Belarus coincide with the upward and downward quasi-30-year phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. The latter are also consistent with fluctuations in moisture content in Belarus and Europe. Based on the established patterns, we have concluded that the rapid rise in winter temperatures, slowing down of summer warming and deterioration in water supply in the southern regions of Belarus observed in the last decade are part of a natural cycle lasting about 30 years, developing against the background of a long-term trend of anthropogenic global warming.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant atmospheric driver of North Atlantic climate variability with phases corresponding to droughts and cold spells in Europe. Here, we exploit a suggested anti-correlation of North Atlantic Oscillation-phase and north-eastern North Atlantic primary productivity by investigation of south-eastern Norwegian Sea sediment cores spanning the last 8000 years. Age model uncertainties between 2 and 13 years for the period 1992–1850 AD allows for the proxy to observational data calibration. Our data suggest that Ca/Fe core-scanning results reflect sedimentary CaCO3 variability in the region. Cross-correlating the Ca/Fe record with nearby phytoplankton counts and dissolved O2 data suggests that Ca/Fe can be used as a proxy for primary productivity variability in the region. Our data support an anti-correlation of primary productivity to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index. Hence, we propose a sub-decadally resolved palaeo-North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction based on an open-ocean record spanning the last 8000 years.

Large-scale oceanic oscillations and their teleconnections with meteorological events are of great importance in macro-scale climatic studies. In this regard, this study investigates the spatiotemporal teleconnections between four oceanic oscillations, namely North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), against Peruvian precipitation patterns during the past 25 years (i.e., 1990-2015). For this purpose, variation in the precipitation pattern at monthly and annual scales as well as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series at 1-, 3-, 12-, and 48-month time scales were evaluated at 10 meteorology stations across Peru. Pearson's correlation coefficient and mutual information between the oceanic oscillations and precipitation-born signals were calculated and spatially interpolated using the Kriging method. The results indicated the presence of three major climatic regions in the country. The NAO has the largest correlation with the monthly precipitation. However, the ENSO was found as the main climate driver of extremely wet and extremely dry conditions in the country. The results also demonstrated that the PDO has a higher impact on the annual precipitation pattern, particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the country.

[EN] The objective of this study was to analyse periodicities and the long-term variability of monthly Jucar River-Mancha Oriental Aquifer interactions (RAI) and regionally measured precipitation (PP) with special focus on the correlations between these local hydrological variables and the large climatic patterns governing the Iberian Peninsula, represented by their teleconnection indices - the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). To that end, wavelet analysis has been applied since it not only provides insight into the time-series dynamics but also permits statistical interpretation and correlation analysis. As a result, several periodicities have been detected: intermittent semi-annual periodicity in PP and the NAOi and annual periodicity in the RAI, NAOi and WeMOi time series. Long cycles (approximately 14 years) are also observed in the PP and WeMOi time series. The cross-wavelet spectra show a correlation between the RAI and the rest of the variables on the semi-annual and the annual scales, while wavelet coherence detects common behaviour with longer cycles - 5-6 years between the NAOi and the RAI and cycles of both 1-5 years and 7-10 years between PP and the RAI. Furthermore, results show that the periodicities in the teleconnection indices and precipitation propagate into the RAI with certain lead times: 3 months between the RAI and PP and 6 months between the RAI and the NAOi. The results indicate that the detected periodicities and the coherence between the studied variables could have applications in strategic planning on a river basin scale, taking into account the propagation times and the frequency scale. This methodological approach can be applied into strategic water resource planning independently of the geographical location of the hydrogeological system, the basin size and the climate region., Special thanks go to the Júcar Water Authority (CHJ) and stakeholders (JCRMO) in the Mancha Oriental System for providing the necessary information. The content of this report does not represent the view of CHJ and JCRMO. This work has been funded by the research projects CGL2017-87216-C4-2-R from the National Research Program I + D + i (FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia, Investigación y Universidades) and SBPLY/17/180501/000296 from the National Research Program I + D + i of the Junta of Communities of Castile-La Mancha. We would also like to thank Christine Laurin for the English copy editing and valued comments.

Mercury is found in Arctic marine mammals that are important in the diet of northern Indigenous peoples. The objectives of the present long‐term study, spanning a 45‐yr period, were to 1) investigate the temporal trends of total mercury (THg; muscle and liver) and selenium (Se; liver) in ringed seals (Pusa hispida) from different regions of the Canadian Arctic; and 2) examine possible relationships with age, diet, and climate parameters such as air temperature, precipitation, climatic indices, and ice‐coverage. Ringed seals were collected by hunters in northern communities in the Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic, Eastern Baffin Island, Hudson Bay, and Ungava/Nunatsiavut regions (Canada) between 1972 and 2017. Mercury levels did not change through time in seal liver, but THg levels in muscle decreased in seals from Hudson Bay (−0.91%/yr) and Ungava/Nunatsiavut (−1.30%/yr). Carbon stable isotope values in seal muscle decreased significantly through time in 4 regions. Selenium‐to‐THg ratios were found to be >1 for all years and regions. Variation partitioning analyses across regions indicated that THg trends in seals were mostly explained by age (7.3–21.7%), climate parameters (3.5–12.5%), and diet (up to 9%); climate indices (i.e., Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, Pacific/North American pattern) explained the majority of the climate portion. The THg levels had a positive relationship with Arctic Oscillation for multiple regions. Associations of THg with air temperature, total precipitation, and sea‐ice coverage, as well as with North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific/North American pattern were found to vary with tissue type and geographical area. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2462–2474. © 2020 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada., Total mercury and selenium concentrations were evaluated through time (1970s–2017) in ringed seals from the Canadian Arctic. Associations between concentrations of trace metal in tissues, age and diet of seals as well as climate parameters were also investigated.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. This is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatio-temporal scales. Here, the authors study a number of linear and nonlinear models for a station-based time series of the daily winter NAO index. It is found that nonlinear autoregressive models including both short and long lags perform excellently in reproducing the characteristic statistical properties of the NAO, such as skewness and fat tails of the distribution and the different time scales of the two phases. As a spinoff of the modelling procedure, we are able to deduce that the interannual dependence of the NAO mostly affects the positive phase and that timescales of one to three weeks are more dominant for the negative phase. The statistical properties of the model makes it useful for the generation of realistic climate noise.

This work investigates the nonsynchronous relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter European precipitation. The results indicate that the linkage between early-winter (November and December) NAO and the following January precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and European sectors became statistically significant after the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s, January precipitation and atmospheric circulation are weakly correlated with early-winter NAO. After the late 1980s, by contrast, the positive phase of the early-winter NAO is generally followed by an anomalous meridional dipole pattern with barotropic structure over the North Atlantic, which provides conditions for more (less) precipitation south of Iceland (east of the Azores). Further analysis elucidates that this regime shift may be partly attributed to the change of early-winter NAO, which is concurrent with significant change in the intensity of the synoptic and low-frequency eddy interaction over the Atlantic–European sectors. Anomalous positive sea level pressure and geopotential height, along with zonal wind anomalies associated with a positive early-winter NAO over the North Atlantic, are more significant and extend more northeastward after the late 1980s, which may be induced by an intensified transient eddy feedback after the late 1980s, as well as the enhanced storm-track activity over the North Atlantic. Thus, early-winter NAO can induce significant ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic after the late 1980s, which extend downward into the middle parts of the thermocline and persist until the following January to trigger NAO-like atmospheric circulation patterns. Analyses from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble simulations indicate the effects of internal climate variability on such a strengthened linkage.

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

Teleconnection patterns affect the weather and climate on both interannual and decadal timescales which in turn affects various socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. We use three climate indices based on E-OBS data from the INDECIS dataset (growing season onset [ogs10], growing season rainfall [gsr] and growing season temperature [ta_o]) to assess the interannual variability and trends over 1950–2017 associated with four teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], East Atlantic pattern [EA], Scandinavian pattern [SCA] and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern [EAWR]) using linear regression to extract the signal of each teleconnection pattern and their contribution to interannual variability. Trends towards an earlier growing season onset are found across most of Europe in low-lying regions. The NAO dominates interannual variability in northwest Europe where an NAO index of 1 is associated with earlier ogs10 of about 10 days and the EA dominates the continent with a trend towards the positive EA phase driving an earlier growing season onset of 1.1–1.7 days·decade−1 in five regions (Great Britain and Ireland, France, Italy, Poland and North Germany, Hungary, Balkans). The EA and SCA gsr signals have north/south splits of orientation: positive EA is linked to increased gsr in northern regions and reduced gsr in southern Europe, and vice versa for SCA. Correlations between gsr interannual variability and the teleconnection contributions are strongest in the Mediterranean regions and south Scandinavia with maxima of 0.41 and 0.46, respectively. Decreasing ta_o trends in Romania are explained by poor data coverage causing problems with the EOBS gridding algorithm when new stations are incorporated from 1961. The net effect is that Romanian ta_o is about 1.5°C cooler than expected compared to trends from surrounding countries. Improved spatial and temporal data coverage will benefit the EOBS dataset and prevent such erroneous trends.

The aim of this paper is to understand the role of the macrocirculation factor in shaping the dynamics of long-term bioclimatic conditions, with reference to Kłodzko in the Polish part of the Central Sudetes. The variability of bioclimatic conditions in Kłodzko for the period 1966–2017 was analysed, exposing its local specificity. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was taken as an indicator of the analysed bioclimatic features. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the variability of this index and its constituent meteorological elements, e.g. air temperature, vapour pressure, wind speed, and solar conditions, was examined. On the basis of the winter NAO Hurrell coefficient, the analysed years were divided into two opposing groups representing either a negative or positive Hurrell index. A comparison between these two year-groups for the mean values of UTCI and the examined meteorological elements showed a clear intergroup difference in these values. Except for cloudiness, the importance of the macrocirculation genesis of NAO was verified by the statistically significant correlation between the Hurrell index on the one hand and the tested UTCI index and its constituent meteorological elements on the other.

The strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is a key contributor to subseasonal prediction during boreal winter. Anomalously weak polar vortex events can be induced by enhanced vertically propagating Rossby waves from the troposphere, driven by blocking and wave breaking. Here, we analyse a tropospheric pattern – the Scandinavia-Greenland (S-G) pattern – associated with both processes. The S-G pattern is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of mean sea-level pressure in the northeast Atlantic. The first EOF is a zonal pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation. We show that the S-G pattern is associated with a transient amplification of planetary wavenumber2 and meridional eddy heat flux, followed by the onset of a weakened polar vortex which persists for the next 2 months. We then analyse 10 different models from the S2S database, finding that while all models represent the structure of the S-G pattern well, some models have a zonal bias with more than the observed variability in their first EOF, and accordingly less in their second EOF. This bias is largest in models with the lowest resolution. Skill in predicting the S-G pattern is not high beyond week 2 in any model, in contrast to the zonal pattern. We find that the relationship between the S-G pattern and enhanced eddy heat flux and a weakened polar vortex is initially well-represented but significantly decays with lead time in most S2S models. Our results motivate improved representation of the S-G pattern and its stratospheric response at longer lead-times for improved subseasonal prediction of the stratospheric polar vortex.

Energy transfer mechanisms between the atmosphere and the deep ocean have been studied for many years. Their importance to the ocean’s energy balance and possible implications on mixing are widely accepted. The slab model by Pollard (Deep-Sea Res Oceanogr Abstr 17(4):795–812, 1970) is a well-established simulation of near-inertial motion and energy inferred through wind-ocean interaction. Such a model is set up with hourly wind forcing from the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis that allows computations up to high latitudes without loss of resonance. Augmenting the one-dimensional model with the horizontal divergence of the near-inertial current field leads to direct estimates of energy transfer spectra of internal wave radiation from the mixed layer base into the ocean interior. Calculations using this hybrid model are carried out for the North Atlantic during the years 1989 and 1996, which are associated with positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation index, respectively. Results indicate a range of meridional regimes with distinct energy transfer ratios. These are interpreted in terms of the mixed layer depth, the buoyancy frequency at the mixed layer base, and the wind field structure. The average ratio of radiated energy fluxes from the mixed layer to near-inertial wind power for both years is approximately 12%. The dependence on the wind structure is supported by simulations of idealized wind stress fronts with variable width and translation speeds.

Earlywood and latewood widths differently respond to the climate in boreal and Mediterranean Scots pine forests. The response is constrained by allometric relationships. Measurements of earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) width can be used to assess how tree growth responds to the climate in different biomes. Through tree-ring analyses, we quantified and analysed EW and LW width in six Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests situated in the boreal and Mediterranean biomes. We aimed to answer: (i) how coupled are EW and LW width in Scots pine boreal and Mediterranean European forests, and (ii) how do they respond to climate and atmospheric patterns. Using allometric approaches to assess the EW‒LW coupling and correlations with climate variables and indices we found that EW and LW width in Scots pine responds to different climate variables depending on biome and site. We identified two groups of sites with slow-growing trees producing dense wood with more LW in boreal sites vs. fast-growing trees producing more conductive wood with a higher EW proportion in Mediterranean sites. In these sites, spring-to-summer drought was the main constraint of EW and LW production. In boreal sites, wet springs and warm summers improved EW and LW width, respectively. We also found a high coupling between EW and LW width in cold, dry Mediterranean sites. LW width was very responsive to climate and atmospheric patterns in warm, dry Mediterranean sites. The most consistent response to atmospheric patterns was a negative correlation between EW and the January North Atlantic Oscillation index in Mediterranean sites. Mediterranean Scots pine forests where LW width is not very dependent on EW width are potential sites for using LW variables as proxies of drought during the growing season.

Modeling and observational studies have reported effects of stratospheric ozone extremes on Northern Hemisphere spring climate. Recent work has further suggested that the coupling of ozone chemistry and dynamics amplifies the surface response to midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here we study the importance of interactive ozone chemistry in representing the stratospheric polar vortex and Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate variability. We contrast two simulations from the interactive and specified chemistry (and thus ozone) versions of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, which is designed to isolate the impact of interactive ozone on polar vortex variability. In particular, we analyze the response with and without interactive chemistry to midwinter SSWs, March SSWs, and strong polar vortex events (SPVs). With interactive chemistry, the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger and more SPVs occur, but we find little effect on the frequency of midwinter SSWs. At the surface, interactive chemistry results in a pattern resembling a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation following midwinter SSWs but with little impact on the surface signatures of late winter SSWs and SPVs. These results suggest that including interactive ozone chemistry is important for representing North Atlantic and European winter climate variability., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 (17), ISSN:1680-7375, ISSN:1680-7367