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Crustal earthquakes in low-strain-rate regions are rare in the human life span but can generate disastrous consequences when they occur. Such was the case in the Canterbury earthquake sequence that began in 2010 and eventually led to almost 200 fatalities. Our study explores this earthquake sequence’s origins by producing an enhanced earthquake catalog in the Canterbury Plains and Otago, South Island, New Zealand. We investigate seismicity rate changes from 2005 to before the 2010 Mw 7.2 Darfield earthquake. During this time, major subduction-zone earthquakes, such as the 2009 Mw 7.8 Dusky Sound earthquake, created measurable coseismic and postseismic strain in the region. We use template matching to expand the catalog of earthquakes in the region, and use a support vector machine classifier to remove false positives and poor detections. We then compare the newly obtained seismicity rates with the coseismic and postseismic crustal strain fields, and find that seismicity rate and crustal strain are positively correlated in the low-stress, low-seismicity region of the northern Canterbury Plains. In contrast, near fast-moving plate-boundary faults, the seismicity rate changes rise without much change in the strain rate. Our analysis reveals a substantial seismicity rate decrease in the western rupture area of the Darfield earthquake, which we infer to be an effect of coseismic and postseismic deformation caused by the Dusky Sound earthquake. We show in low-strain-rate regions, stress perturbation of a few kPas creates substantial seismicity rate change. However, the implication that such seismic quiescence is responsible for the nucleation of the Darfield earthquake requires further studies.

The corrected 2010 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model has been adapted for use in the Global Earthquake Model’s OpenQuake engine through an extensive benchmarking exercise with GNS Science’s legacy Fortran code. Resolution of differences between the legacy code and OpenQuake result in hazard curve output comparisons with discrepancies of less than 3% nationally and remaining discrepancies highlight challenges faced when moving away from in-house legacy code. OpenQuake’s multiple and varied computation options for both hazard and risk and OpenQuake’s consistent, software-friendly output formats allow for exploration and development of innovative approaches to future seismic hazard and risk modeling in New Zealand. The end-to-end seismic hazard-to-risk capabilities already enabled by the inclusion of New Zealand seismic hazard, vulnerability, and building exposure models in OpenQuake have already had significant impact on post-disaster response to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake.

Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time-dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text-based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizations to agencies and the public, with the intent of providing information about future earthquake hazard and risk, so that people can use this information to inform their decisions and activities. Despite questions being raised about the utility of OEF for decision-making, past earthquake events have shown that agencies and the public have indeed made use of such forecasts. Responses have included making decisions about safe access into buildings, cordoning, demolition safety, timing of infrastructure repair and rebuild, insurance, postearthquake building standards, postevent land-use planning, and public communication about aftershocks. To add to this body of knowledge, we undertook a survey to investigate how agencies and GNS Science staff used OEFs that were communicated following the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand. We found that agencies utilized OEFs in many of the ways listed previously, and we document individual employee’s actions taken in their home-life context. Challenges remain, however, regarding the interpretation of probabilistic information and applying this to practical decision-making. We suggest that science agencies cannot expect nontechnical users to understand and utilize forecasts without additional support. This might include developing a diversity of audience-relevant OEF information for communication purposes, alongside advice on how such information could be utilized.

The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia incorporated 19 alternative seismic-source models developed by members of the Australian seismological community. The diversity of these models demonstrates the deep epistemic uncertainty that exists with regards to how best to characterize seismicity in stable continental regions. In the face of similarly high uncertainty, a diverse range of ground-motion models was proposed for use. A complex logic tree was developed to incorporate the alternative component models into a single hazard model. Expert opinion was drawn upon to weight the alternative logic-tree branches through a structured expert elicitation process. Expert elicitation aims to transparently and reproducibly characterize the community distribution of expert estimates for uncertain quantities and thereby quantify the epistemic uncertainty around estimates of seismic hazard in Australia. We achieve a multimodel rational consensus in which each model, and each expert, is, in accordance with the Australian cultural myth of egalitarianism, given a “fair go”—that is, judged on their merits rather than their status. Yet despite this process, we find that the results are not universally accepted. A key issue is a contested boundary between what is scientifically reducible and what remains epistemologically uncertain, with a particular focus on the earthquake catalog. Furthermore, a reduction, on average, of 72% for the 10% in 50 yr probability of exceedance peak ground acceleration levels compared with those underpinning existing building design standards, challenges the choice of metrics upon which design codes are based. Both quantification of the bounds of epistemic uncertainties through expert elicitation and reduction of epistemic uncertainties through scientific advances have changed our understanding of how the hazard behaves. Dialog between scientists, engineers, and policy makers is required to ensure that as our understanding of the hazard evolves, the hazard metrics used to underpin risk management decisions are re-evaluated to ensure societal aims are achieved.

This paper describes the shaking intensity levels caused by the M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake of 14/11/2016 according to the information from the two current GeoNet online questionnaires, ‘Felt Detailed’ and ‘Felt RAPID’. A recently developed method to extract intensity levels at a community scale using ‘Felt Detailed’ data is used. These are compared with individual intensities from ‘Felt RAPID’ survey, instrumental intensities from two recent ground motion to intensity conversion equations, and traditional intensity assignments. While maximum Modified Mercalli instrumental, traditional, ‘Felt RAPID’ and individual ‘Felt Detailed’ intensities go up to 8, community intensities using ‘Felt Detailed’ mostly only go up to 5, with only four communities with MM 6-7. Reasons for this discrepancy include a) lack of data around the epicentre; b) few reports from this event compared to other smaller recent earthquakes; and c) lack of public awareness of ‘Felt Detailed” surveys, released shortly after the earthquake. In addition, only 47% of reports were used to calculate community intensities, based on a minimum requirement for robust calculation of 5 reports. Although ‘Felt RAPID’ provided a much larger number of reports (more than 15,000) for this earthquake compared to ‘Felt Detailed’ (3500), the reliability of the former may be compromised by their lack of detail. Results from this paper suggest that, when enough reports are submitted, ‘Felt Detailed’ can provide good quality data that can be used in tools such as the near-real time shaking intensity maps provided in ShakeMapNZ.

The 2016 M w 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake continued a notable decade of damaging earthquake impacts in New Zealand. The effects were wide ranging across the upper South Island, and included two fatalities, tsunami, tens of thousands of landslides, the collapse of one residential building, and damage to numerous structures and infrastructure. We present a preliminary overview focused on the seismological aspects of this earthquake and the corresponding seismological response effort. The earthquake rupture was extremely complex, involving at least 13 separate faults extending over ∼150 km, from the epicenter in north Canterbury to near the Cook Strait. We use backprojection and slip inversion methods to derive preliminary insights into the rupture evolution, identifying south‐to‐north rupture, including at least three distinct southwest‐to‐northeast propagating phases. The last phase is associated with a strong second pulse of energy release in the northern half of the rupture zone ∼70 s after rupture initiation, which we associate with the Kekerengu–Needles faults where some of the largest surface displacements (dextral) were observed. The mechanism of the mainshock was oblique thrust and relocated aftershocks show a range of thrust and strike‐slip mechanisms across three dominant spatial clusters. GeoNet datasets collected during the Kaikōura earthquake will be crucial in further unraveling details of the complex earthquake rupture and its implications for seismic hazard. Ground motions during the earthquake exceeded 1 g at both ends of the rupture. Spectral accelerations exceeded 500‐year return period design level spectra in numerous towns in the upper South Island, as well as in parts of the capital city of Wellington at critical periods of 1–2 s, influenced by site/basin and directivity effects. Another important part of the response effort has been the provision of earthquake forecasts, as well as consideration of the implications of slow slip on the Hikurangi subduction interface triggered as a result of the Kaikōura earthquake.

Recent damaging earthquakes in New Zealand ruptured faults that were not known to be active. We analyzed New Zealand historical moderate‐to‐great magnitude earthquakes since 1845 ( M w 6–8.2) to estimate the level of completeness of earthquake fault sources in the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and the paleoseismic record. Our analysis assumes that the historical earthquakes are representative of the paleoseismic record and, due to the small number of events (45 M w ≥6), is qualitative. We find that about half of all historical earthquakes M w ≥7.0 ruptured faults that, based on today’s state of knowledge of active‐fault locations, would not have been identified as active prior to the event. The majority of historical events on faults previously not identified as active were M w

We developed a hybrid time‐dependent seismic‐hazard model for application to the recovery of Canterbury, New Zealand, following the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We combined earthquake‐clustering models of three timescales (short‐term, medium‐term, and long‐term) to develop a model that accounts for the significant epistemic uncertainty in the earthquake rates. For the probabilistic seismic‐hazard calculations, these models were coupled with two ground‐motion prediction equations. The weights for the construction of the hybrid model and for the logic tree were obtained using a structured expert elicitation process. Forecasts from the model have been used to provide earthquake probabilities to a range of end users on timescales from 1 day to 50 years. Additionally, the 50‐year hazard forecast has been used in the revision of the New Zealand building design guidelines and other aspects of the reconstruction of Christchurch.

Since 2014, research groups from Japan, Taiwan, and New Zealand have been collaborating to share research ideas and expertise about topics relevant to the development of national seismic hazard models (NSHMs) in each region. The trilateral collaboration is centered on a series of workshops designed to bring the researchers together. So far, three such meetings have been held: a kick‐off workshop in Taiwan in May 2014, a second workshop in Japan in August 2015, and a third workshop in New Zealand in November 2015. A fourth workshop is planned for late 2016. In this focus section on the joint Japan–Taiwan–New Zealand NSHM, we have collected eight papers that highlight some of the ongoing research that specifically targets improvements in the respective NSHMs.

Earthquake‐hazard models are one of the major contributions provided by the seismological community to tangibly support disaster risk reduction policies at a national level. Although the societal impact of hazard analyses can be huge, the development of models remains a scientific activity developed within frameworks that have a strong national emphasis and partial international recognition. However, broad acceptability of hazard models is a key aspect for achieving authoritativeness and a prerequisite for warranting that their construction is completed using well‐recognized methodologies. As part of an enduring international collaboration between leading organizations operating in the hazard and risk fields in Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, and the Global Earthquake Model initiative, we discuss the main characteristic of the earthquake source models—as implemented for the OpenQuake engine—used for the calculation of the most recent national seismic‐hazard maps of these three countries. Particular emphasis is placed on comparing the various modeling options adopted in the different tectonic regions, on emphasizing commonalities, and on discussing the most controversial modeling solutions. Despite the many connections from a seismotectonic point of view between the three countries, the comparison highlights different modeling choices for the various tectonic regions, which constitute a spectrum of possible epistemic uncertainties, as well as modeling issues that could be collectively explored in future phases of this international collaboration.

This paper describes, to our knowledge, the first application of a Bayesian network (BN) with structured expert elicitation in risk assessment of carbon storage. The BN estimates the probability that the CO2CRC Otway Stage 2C experiment is successful in detecting a CO2 plume injected into a saline aquifer and in confirming stabilisation of the plume using a 4D seismic survey. To develop the BN structure, Otway Stage 2C scientists and managers identified the key variables impacting the success of the experiment and their relations. To estimate the conditional probabilities required to quantify the BN, we applied the Classical Model. This is a non-consensus procedure for combining expert judgement that involves weighting a group of experts according to their ability to judge uncertainties accurately and informatively. The experts participated in open discussion about the BN and provided, individually, all probabilities required to complete the BN. The primary result was a 74% probability of detecting the plume, and a 57% probability that there will be consistency between the model-predicted plume behaviour and the observations.

Although the global flux of sediment and carbon from land to the coastal ocean is well known, the volume of material that reaches the deep ocean—the ultimate sink—and the mechanisms by which it is transferred are poorly documented. Using a globally unique data set of repeat seafloor measurements and samples, we show that the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 November 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (New Zealand) triggered widespread landslides in a submarine canyon, causing a powerful “canyon flushing” event and turbidity current that traveled >680 km along one of the world’s longest deep-sea channels. These observations provide the first quantification of seafloor landscape change and large-scale sediment transport associated with an earthquake-triggered full canyon flushing event. The calculated interevent time of ~140 years indicates a canyon incision rate of 40 mm year−1, substantially higher than that of most terrestrial rivers, while synchronously transferring large volumes of sediment [850 metric megatons (Mt)] and organic carbon (7 Mt) to the deep ocean. These observations demonstrate that earthquake-triggered canyon flushing is a primary driver of submarine canyon development and material transfer from active continental margins to the deep ocean., peer-reviewed

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb-based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb-based and coulomb/statistical hybrid models were developed that account better for uncertainties and secondary stress sources. Here, we report on the performance of this new suite of models compared with empirical epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Comprising the 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake and three subsequent M = 5:9 shocks (including the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake), this sequence provides a wealth of data (394 M = 3:95 shocks). We assessed models over multiple forecast horizons (1 day, 1 month, and 1 yr, updated after M = 5:9 shocks). The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the coulomb-based models. Purely physics-based models have a performance comparable to the ETAS model, and the two coulomb/statistical hybrids perform better or similar to the corresponding statistical model. On the other hand, an ETAS model with anisotropic (fault-based) aftershock zones is just as informative. These results provide encouraging evidence for the predictive power of coulomb-based models. To assist with model development, we identify discrepancies between forecasts and observations. © 2018 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.

We present highlights from the first decade of operation of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Most results are based on reprocessing using the best available catalog, because the testing center did not consistently capture the complete real-time catalog. Tests of models with daily updating show that aftershock models incorporating Omori- Utsu decay can outperform long-term smoothed seismicity models with probability gains up to 1000 during major aftershock sequences. Tests of models with 3-month updating show that several models with every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) model, incorporating the precursory scale increase phenomenon and without Omori-Utsu decay, and the double-branching model, with both Omori-Utsu and exponential decay in time, outperformed a regularly updated smoothed seismicity model. In tests of 5-yr models over 10 yrs without updating, a smoothed seismicity model outperformed the earthquake source model of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The performance of 3-month and 5-yr models was strongly affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence, which occurred in a region of previously low seismicity. Smoothed seismicity models were shown to perform better with more frequent updating. CSEP models were a useful resource for the development of hybrid time-varying models for practical forecasting after major earthquakes in the Canterbury and Kaikoura regions. © 2018 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.

New time-dependent seismicity models for the Christchurch region reflect the greatly enhanced seismicity in the region at present, and the gradual decrease of the seismicity over the next few decades. These seismicity models, along with modified ground-motion prediction equations and revised hazard calculation procedures have been used to derive new seismic hazard estimates for timeframes from months to 50 years. The hazard estimates have been used for a variety of applications crucial to planning and implementing the recovery of Christchurch. The new model includes higher amplitude spectra for designing new structures and assessing existing ones, magnitude-weighted peak ground acceleration hazard curves that account for duration effects for liquefaction assessment and remediation, and peak ground acceleration curves for evaluating the probabilities of rock falls. Particularly challenging has been the incorporation of time-varying hazard components into the redesign levels.

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP's goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities. © 2018 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.