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On 23 July 2018, Attica, Greece, was impacted by a major wildfire that took place in a wildland–urban interface area and exhibited extreme fire behavior, characterized by a very high rate of spread. One-hundred civilian fatalities were registered, establishing this wildfire as the second-deadliest weather-related natural disaster in Greece, following the heat wave of July 1987. On the day of the deadly wildfire, a very strong westerly flow was blowing for more than 10 h over Attica. Wind gusts up to 30–34 m s−1occurred over the mountainous areas of Attica, with 20–25 m s−1in the city of Athens and surrounding suburban areas. This strong westerly flow interacted with the local topography and acted as downslope flow over the eastern part of Attica, with temperatures rising up to 39°C and relative humidity dropping to 19% prior to the onset of the wildfire. These weather elements are widely acknowledged as the major contributing factors to extreme fire behavior. WRF-SFIRE correctly predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of the fire spread and demonstrated its utility for fire spread warning purposes.

On 1st and 2nd February 2015, the central and eastern Mediterranean, as well as parts of the Black Sea, were affected by an extreme desert dust outbreak. This exceptional dust event took place under the prevalence of a strong southwesterly airflow over the region, with maximum wind speeds up to 70 (36 ms−1) and 35 knots (18 ms−1) at 700 hPa and at mean sea-level pressure, respectively. Based on MODIS-Terra/Aqua aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals, the intensity of the transported dust loads maximized over the central Mediterranean (4.2) while very high AODs (up to 2.5) were recorded over Greece and the Black Sea. In addition, according to in-situ measurements obtained at Finokalia (Crete, southern Greece), the maximum PM10 concentrations reached up to 758 μgr m−3 (maximum levels for 2015). Through the implementation of the WRF-Chem model, the clear-sky direct radiative effects (DREs) have been computed for the SW, LW and NET (SW + LW) radiation, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), within the atmosphere (ATM) as well as for the downwelling (SURF) and the absorbed (NETSURF) radiation at the ground. According to our simulations, during daytime, the instantaneous NET DREs reach down to −278.1 Wm−2 (Solar Zenith Angle (SZA) = 53°) and − 252.2 Wm−2 for SURF and NETSURF, respectively, indicating a strong surface cooling, while the corresponding values for ATM can be as large as 147.3 Wm−2 (SZA = 50°) revealing a strong atmospheric warming. At TOA, the computed DREs vary from −120.1 Wm−2 (planetary cooling; SZA = 51°) to 59.4 Wm−2 (planetary warming; SZA = 64°) being negative and positive over dark and bright surfaces, respectively. During nighttime, reverse effects of lower magnitude are found at all levels of the Earth-Atmosphere system. At a regional scale, throughout the forecast period, the clear-sky NET DREs range from −16.60 Wm−2 to −0.76 Wm−2, from −46.18 Wm−2 to 16.11 Wm−2, from −32.31 Wm−2 to 13.70 Wm−2 and from −14.63 Wm−2 to 20.40 Wm−2 for TOA, SURF, NETSURF and ATM, respectively. As a response to the perturbation of the surface radiation budget, the 2 m air temperature decreases/increases by up to 1.5 °C (5.3 °C) during daytime/nighttime. Moreover, at noon, the low-level dust layer (up to 3 km above sea level), cools (heats) the lowest troposphere by up to 0.5 °C (1.4 °C) over land (sea). At night, the temperature of the atmospheric layers where the dust aerosols are confined decreases (by up to −1.8 °C), whereas a warming effect (by up to 2.8 °C) is evident in the air masses beneath the dust layer. Through the inclusion of dust-radiation interactions in the numerical simulations, the model's predictive skill in terms of reproducing the downwelling SW radiation at the ground is improved. This is justified via the comparison of the RADON (dust-radiation interactions are activated) and RADOFF (dust-radiation interactions are deactivated) outputs against cloud-free observations derived by 31 NOAAN stations. More specifically, from RADOFF to RADON, the bias reduces from 157.63 to 26.02 Wm−2 and the slope decreases from 1.25 to 0.98. On the contrary, the evaluation analysis of the temperature at 2 m does not reveal a remarkably better performance of the RADON run, particularly during sunlight hours, reflecting thus the predominance of first order model errors over the expected improvements attributed to dust-radiation interactions.

This study examines the mechanisms of flood-risk precautionary behavior among Greek citizens. To that end, we specify and test a mediation model in which awareness-raising factors and confidence attitudes influence the citizens' current flood preparedness and preparedness intention through perceptual and emotional processes. Raw data were obtained via an online survey that received 1855 responses. Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, results indicate that risk perception and worry are significant drivers of preparedness intention. In particular, they act as mediating variables, explaining how flood experience, access to more risk information, vulnerability awareness, and trust in authorities affect citizens' intention to invest in precautionary measures. Especially trust was found to have a negative effect on worry, leading to lower preparedness levels. Worry was also found to have a significant role in explaining the current preparedness levels. Interestingly, citizens who had already undertaken precautionary measures in the past appear to be more willing to invest in more measures. Implications for improving flood-risk management in Greece are discussed.

The spatio-temporal regime of lightning strokes over the broader Greek area is studied using 15-day ZEUS cloud-to-ground lightning data for a 10-year period (2005–14). The multivariate statistical method Factor Analysis (S-mode and T-mode) is applied on the mean intra-annual variation of lightning in order to reveal: i) the main modes of intra-annual variation of lighting activity that correspond to specific sub-regions of the Greek area and ii) the main characteristic patterns of strokes prevailing during specific periods of the year (“seasons”). According to the results there are three main modes of intra-annual variation: a) the continental one with maximum lightning activity in early summer, b) the Ionian Sea one with maximum in early autumn and c) the Aegean Sea one with maxima in middle autumn and late May. Also, according to the patterns of strokes, three main “seasons” are found: a) the summer one (early May–middle August) with highest lightning activity over the continental regions of the country due to the atmospheric instability associated with the intense land heating and the persistence of cool upper air masses, b) the winter one (middle December–middle February) with the maximum of lightning activity over the sea where instability is high due to the frequent prevalence of cold air masses over the warm sea-surface and the associated passages of Mediterranean depressions and c) the autumn one (early September–middle October) with maximum over northwestern Greece associated with the early cold season low pressure systems, the warm sea body of Ionian Sea and the essential role of topography.

Mediterranean thunderstorms climatology is analyzed for a 10-year period from 2005 to 2014. For this analysis, we applied a clustering method to the cloud-to-ground lightning stroke dataset, derived from the ZEUS detection system, operated by the National Observatory of Athens. Results showed that the annual days of thunderstorm occurrence are dependent on the diurnal cycle of insolation and on the underlying topographic features. Therefore, the majority of thunderstorms occur over land in spring and summer, while winter and autumn thunderstorms tend to occur over the sea. On average, winter thunderstorms are less frequent and of lower intensity than the ones of summer, but last longer, tend to attain larger sizes and are associated with significantly higher velocity. Regardless the season, all thunderstorms tend to propagate towards the east, while their speed is higher in winter and autumn. In particular, for thunderstorms occurring over land, we found that the higher the duration of the lifetime of a thunderstorm, the earlier in the day it is expected to occur. Mediterranean thunderstorms size and duration have been found to be correlated, while a linear relation was determined between thunderstorms intensity and rainfall over the Mediterranean region, where the rain yield was estimated to be about 1.8 108 kg of rainfall per CG lightning.

An intense and fast moving convective line that crossed Massif Central/Cevennes-Vivarais area (south France) during the field campaign of Hydrological Cycle in Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) — Special Observing Period 1 (SOP1) is examined. The mesoscale analysis demonstrates a complex convective system with a V-shape in the Infrared (IR) satellite imagery and a squall line pattern on the radar imagery. Ground stations observed up to 60 mm h− 1 of rain accumulation, while the lightning activity, as observed by 4 detection networks, was also exceptionally high. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate this convective episode and sensitivity tests were performed with various microphysics and convective parameterization schemes. Satellite data from Meteosat SEVIRI Rapid Scanning Service were used in conjunction with radar, lightning and rain gauge data to conclude on the best simulation for which WRF model exhibits a rather precise and realistic distribution and evolution of the precipitation patterns. Finally, a study of the microphysics was performed indicating the interconnection of graupel with lightning activity, confirming recent results, compared against a sophisticated hydrometeor classification radar algorithm and lightning data.

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument on board the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite has been utilized for the first time in a study regarding lightning activity modulation due to aerosols. Lightning activity observations, obtained by the ZEUS long range Lightning Detection Network, European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) data and Cloud Fraction (CF) retrieved by MODIS on board Aqua satellite have been combined with CALIPSO CALIOP data over the Mediterranean basin and for the period March to November, from 2007 to 2014. The results indicate that lightning activity is enhanced during days characterized by higher Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) values, compared to days with no lightning. This study contributes to existing studies on the link between lightning activity and aerosols, which have been based just on columnar AOD satellite retrievals, by performing a deeper analysis into the effect of aerosol profiles and aerosol types. Correlation coefficients of R = 0.73 between the CALIPSO AOD and the number of lightning strikes detected by ZEUS and of R = 0.93 between ECMWF CAPE and lightning activity are obtained. The analysis of extinction coefficient values at 532 nm indicates that at an altitudinal range exists, between 1.1 km and 2.9 km, where the values for extinction coefficient of lightning-active and non-lightning-active cases are statistically significantly different. Finally, based on the CALIPSO aerosol subtype classification, we have investigated the aerosol conditions of lightning-active and non-lightning-active cases. According to the results polluted dust aerosols are more frequently observed during non-lightning-active days, while dust and smoke aerosols are more abundant in the atmosphere during the lightning-active days.

Climate-related hazards, such as wildfires and hydrogeological phenomena, cause extensive damages and casualties around the world. Despite the recent advances and technologies for risk mitigation, it is acknowledged that public risk perception is a critical factor for these tools to succeed. Greece and the broader Eastern Mediterranean is an area where, despite the diversity of natural disasters, there is a lack of understanding of the hazard types that people are most concerned with and how they measure against other groups of hazards (i.e., geophysical). This work uses an online survey targeting Greek people, aiming to provide a better understanding of their perception of different natural hazards. Statistical results show that people consider climate-related hazards less dangerous and likely to occur than earthquakes, which occur often as zero-impact events. Laymen may thus underestimate certain risks, which may inhibit appropriate preparation. Disaster experience was found to increase threat perceptions and to motivate preparedness. However, in what concerns climate-related hazards, the effect of experience may fade out over time. Awareness activities were found to associate with higher emergency response efficacy. Males exhibit lower risk perception and higher coping appraisals. However, prioritization of risks is almost identical between genders. Implications for risk management are discussed.

Floods are one of the most lethal natural hazards. Recent studies show that in a large percentage of flood-related fatalities, victims engage in risk-taking behavior by getting deliberately in contact with floodwaters. This study integrates behavioral psychology and situational environmental factors with the aim to examine why individuals undertake such risky behavior. In particular, we draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to link water depth perception with the intention of car drivers to enter floodwaters. The hypotheses on which the study was based were that the depth of the water adversely affects the driver’s intention to enter floodwaters, and that this effect is mediated by a behavior-favorable attitude, a behavior-favorable subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control. Further, to understand the conditions under which this process works, the moderating role of past behavior in the above relationships is also examined. Results from an experimental study (n = 1940) show that water depth perception affects intention. Attitude, perceived behavioral control, and normative beliefs operate as the underlying psychological mechanism that leads to the mitigation of intention in higher water depth situations. Interestingly, past risk-taking behavior is found to be a significant condition under which this process works, by mostly affecting individuals’ attitudes. Mediation and moderated mediation analyses were conducted to estimate causal relationships. The findings provide evidence of the significant interaction that environmental, psychological, and precedent behavioral factors have on behavioral intentions.

This study presents the evaluation of 1 year of operational lightning forecasts provided for Europe, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a cloud-top height-based lightning parameterization scheme. Three different convective parameterization schemes were employed for parameterizing sub-grid cloud-top heights and consequently driving the lightning scheme. Triggering of the lightning scheme was controlled by means of a model-resolved microphysics-based masking filter, while the formulation for deriving lightning flash rates was also modified, assuming a single “marine” equation instead of the original equations discriminating between continental and marine lightning. Gridded lightning observations were used for evaluating model performance on a dichotomous decision basis. Analysis showed that the lightning scheme is sensitive to the parameterization of convection. In particular, the Kain–Fritsch convective scheme was found to outperform the Grell–Devenyi and Grell–Freitas schemes, showing a statistically significant better performance with respect to lightning prediction. This was most evident during the warm season, while smaller differences among the schemes were recorded during the cold season. Further, for all examined convective schemes, it was found that the application of the masking filter is desirable for improving model performance in terms of lightning forecasting. Last, the reported results revealed that the refinement of the formulation of the lightning parameterization scheme, adhering to a “global” marine equation instead of distinguishing between land and sea lightning, may be necessary in order to obtain reliable lightning forecasts.

The Axios Valley, located in central-northern Greece, is surrounded by complex topography that plays a significant role in the modification of wind flow, both in terms of speed and direction. The characteristic wind regime of this valley is Vardaris, a northwesterly wind that prevails in this region, especially during the cold period of the year. Vardaris is well known for its consistent direction and high intensity, as well as for the effective advection of cold and dry air, often resulting to significant damages in local infrastructures and agriculture. A field campaign under the name AXIOS took place during the period from November 2007 through May 2008 in order to examine this particular wind flow. The analysis of the in situ observational data, which was funded by the research program THESPIA-KRIPIS, showed that topography plays a key role in intensifying Vardaris, generating gusts that approximated 30 m s− 1 during the experimental period. The air temperature and humidity fields were also found to be significantly influenced. In addition to the observational study, an intense Vardaris episode was simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at high horizontal resolution. Results revealed that the model was able to reproduce the favorable environmental conditions that lead to Vardaris occurrence, providing a useful insight on the physical mechanisms explaining its structure.

In the framework of this study, the effect of aerosols on lightning activity has been investigated for the first time over the broader Mediterranean Sea. Atmospheric optical depth data retrieved by MODIS on board Aqua satellite and cloud to ground lightning activity data provided by ZEUS network operated by the National Observatory of Athens were analyzed for a time period spanning from 01/01/2005 up to 31/12/2013. The results indicate the importance of aerosols in lightning modulation. The mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) values of the days with lightning activity were found to be higher than the mean seasonal AOD in 90% of the under study domain. Furthermore, the increasing rate of lightning activity with increasing aerosol loading was found to be more pronounced during summertime and for AOD values up to 0.4. Additionally, the spatial analysis showed that the percentage of days with lightning activity during summertime is increasing with increasing AOD. Finally, time series showed similar temporal behavior between AOD seasonal anomalies and days with lightning activity differences. Both the spatial and temporal analysis showed that lightning activity is correlated to AOD, a characteristic consistent for all seasons.

A web-based Decision Support System, named FLIRE DSS, for combined forest fire control and planning as well as flood risk management, has been developed and is presented in this paper. State of the art tools and models have been used in order to enable Civil Protection agencies and local stakeholders to take advantage of the web based DSS without the need of local installation of complex software and their maintenance. Civil protection agencies can predict the behavior of a fire event using real time data and in such a way plan its efficient elimination. Also, during dry periods, agencies can implement “what-if” scenarios for areas that are prone to fire and thus have available plans for forest fire management in case such scenarios occur. Flood services include flood maps and flood-related warnings and become available to relevant authorities for visualization and further analysis on a daily basis. When flood warnings are issued, relevant authorities may proceed to efficient evacuation planning for the areas that are likely to flood and thus save human lives. Real-time weather data from ground stations provide the necessary inputs for the calculation of the fire model in real-time, and a high resolution weather forecast grid supports flood modeling as well as the development of “what-if” scenarios for the fire modeling. All these can be accessed by various computer sources including PC, laptop, Smartphone and tablet either by normal network connection or by using 3G and 4G cellular network. The latter is important for the accessibility of the FLIRE DSS during firefighting or rescue operations during flood events. All these methods and tools provide the end users with the necessary information to design an operational plan for the elimination of the fire events and the efficient management of the flood events in almost real time. Concluding, the FLIRE DSS can be easily transferred to other areas with similar characteristics due to its robust architecture and its flexibility.

The objective of the following paper is to identify weather-related thresholds for wildfire danger, i.e., the potential extent of fire, based on local weather conditions. The target area is Greece, a wildfire prone Mediterranean country which experienced on average 2000 wildfires annually over the last two decades. Initially, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System (FWI System) adopted by the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), is evaluated with respect to its wildfire danger predictive ability. Hence, weather and wildfire data at municipality level and on a daily basis, for the period 2000–2016 are exploited. The analysis showed that the FWI thresholds proposed by EFFIS for assessing the level of fire danger in Europe are too low for the case of Greece and, therefore, are not representative of the country's fire weather conditions. Two statistical approaches, cluster analysis and non-linear least-squares regression, are subsequently applied to determine the most appropriate FWI thresholds for discrete levels of wildfire danger. The results are presented in 4 sets of FWI thresholds and they are further evaluated on the basis of verification measures. All sets of FWI thresholds were found to significantly improve the predictability of wildfire danger compared to the EFFIS fire danger class thresholds. In particular, two of them were found to meet selected performance requirements for a balanced predictive performance, namely a reduced overestimation of wildfire danger and increased reliability in danger classification. The results are expected to have significant practical implications for wildfire prevention and risk mitigation strategies implemented by the forest fire control agencies of the country.

This paper presents the development of an operational forecasting service focusing on human-biometeorological conditions. The service is based on the coupling of numerical weather prediction models with an advanced human-biometeorological model. Human thermal perception and stress forecasts are issued on a daily basis for Greece, in both point and gridded format. A user-friendly presentation approach is adopted for communicating the forecasts to the public via the worldwide web. The development of the presented service highlights the feasibility of replacing standard meteorological parameters and/or indices used in operational weather forecasting activities for assessing the thermal environment. This is of particular significance for providing effective, human-biometeorology-oriented, warnings for both heat waves and cold outbreaks.

Over the past several decades, flash floods that occurred in Attica, Greece, caused serious property and infrastructure damages, disruptions in economic and social activities, and human fatalities. This paper investigated the link between rainfall and flash flood impact during the catastrophic event that affected Attica on 22 October 2015, while also addressing human risk perception and behavior as a response to flash floods. The methodology included the analysis of the space–time correlation of rainfall with the citizens’ calls to the emergency fire services for help, and the statistical analysis of people’s responses to an online behavioral survey. The results designated critical rainfall thresholds associated with flash flood impact in the four most affected subareas of the Attica region. The impact magnitude was found to be associated with the localized accumulated rainfall. Vulnerability factors, namely, population density, geographical, and environmental features, may have contributed to the differences in the impact magnitudes between the examined subareas. The analysis of the survey’s behavioral responses provided insights into peoples’ risk perception and coping responses relative to the space–time distribution of rainfall. The findings of this study were in agreement with the hypothesis that the more severe the rainfall, the higher peoples’ severity assessment and the intensity of emotional response. Deeper feelings of fear and worry were found to be related to more adjustments to the scheduled activities and travels. Additionally, being alert to the upcoming rainfall risk was found to be related to decreased worry and fear and to fewer changes in scheduled activities.

Flash floods that occurred in the urban part of Attica, Greece, in the last decades, have caused, overall, serious property and infrastructure damages, economic and social activities impediment and, occasionally, human fatalities. This paper investigates the relationship between the rainfall hazard and the induced impact, as measured by impact indicators, and examines the effect of the social factor on the vulnerability of the system exposed to the flash flood risk. The study focuses on the catastrophic flash flood event that affected Attica on October 22, 2015. The methodology includes the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall and citizens’ calls to the Fire Service emergency for help during the event, as well as the analysis of people’s responses at an on-line behavioral survey. Results feature the roles of the rainfall hazard and of the society on the flash flood impact and contribute to a more integrated view of the flash flood risk in an urbanized environment.

International audience; Here, a heavy precipitation event that affected Southern France in the period of 6–8 September 2010 is studied. This event produced more than 300 mm in a 24-h period and resulted in floods in an area that has been often affected by similar events during autumn.The system has been monitored by in situ surface stations, radar, lightning networks and satellites that put into evidence the anchoring of convective cells along mountainous areas. The precipitation episode was simulated using the MM5 non-hydrostatic model at very high resolution. Moreover, an assimilation technique has been applied that controls the activation of the convective parameterisation scheme using lightning data as a proxy for the presence of convection. The assimilation of lightning proved to have a positive impact on the representation of the precipitation field, providing also more realistic positioning of the precipitation maxima, mainly during the second day of the event. The improvement of the model simulation when lightning was assimilated was quantitatively supported by the verification against observations.The improvement of monitoring, understanding and forecasting of such type of events is in line with the scientific topics prescribed within HYMEX international project.

This study aims to make a regional characterization of the performance of the rain retrieval algorithm BRAIN. This algorithm estimates the rain rate from brightness temperatures measured by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) onboard the TRMM satellite. In this stage of the study, a comparison between the rain estimated from Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard TRMM (2A25 version 5) and the rain retrieved by the BRAIN algorithm is presented, for about 30 satellite overpasses over the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the period October 2003–March 2004, in order to assess the behavior of the algorithm in the Eastern Mediterranean region. BRAIN was built and tested using PR rain estimates distributed randomly over the whole TRMM sampling region. Characterization of the differences between PR and BRAIN over a specific region is thus interesting because it might show some local trend for one or the other of the instrument. The checking of BRAIN results against the PR rain-estimate appears to be consistent with former results i.e. a somewhat marked discrepancy for the highest rain rates. This difference arises from a known problem that affect rain retrieval based on passive microwave radiometers measurements, but some of the higher radar rain rates could also be questioned. As an independent test, a good correlation between the rain retrieved by BRAIN and lighting data (obtained by the UK Met. Office long range detection system) is also emphasized in the paper.