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The effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic gases and aerosols under present-day conditions relative to preindustrial conditions is estimated using the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) as part of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) and Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP), endorsed by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The global mean total anthropogenic net ERF estimate at the top of the atmosphere is 1.96 W m−2 and is composed primarily of positive forcings due to carbon dioxide (1.85 W m−2), methane (0.71 W m−2), and halocarbons (0.30 W m−2) and negative forcing due to the total aerosols (− 1.22 W m−2). The total aerosol ERF consists of 23% from aerosol-radiation interactions (− 0.32 W m−2), 71% from aerosol-cloud interactions (− 0.98 W m−2), and slightly from surface albedo changes caused by aerosols (0.08 W m−2). The ERFs due to aerosol-radiation interactions consist of opposing contributions from light-absorbing black carbon (BC) (0.25 W m−2) and from light-scattering sulfate (− 0.48 W m−2) and organic aerosols (− 0.07 W m−2) and are pronounced over emission source regions. The ERFs due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) are prominent over the source and downwind regions, caused by increases in the number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets in low-level clouds. Concurrently, increases in the number concentration of ice crystals in high-level clouds (temperatures < –38 °C), primarily induced by anthropogenic BC aerosols, particularly over tropical convective regions, cause both substantial negative shortwave and positive longwave ERFaci values in MRI-ESM2.0. These distinct forcings largely cancel each other; however, significant longwave radiative heating of the atmosphere caused by high-level ice clouds suggests the importance of further studies on the interactions of aerosols with ice clouds. Total anthropogenic net ERFs are almost entirely positive over the Arctic due to contributions from the surface albedo reductions caused by BC. In the Arctic, BC provides the second largest contribution to the positive ERFs after carbon dioxide, suggesting a possible important role of BC in Arctic surface warming.

This paper reports on a new index for low cloud cover (LCC), the estimated cloud-top entrainment index (ECTEI), which is a modification of estimated inversion strength (EIS) and takes into account a cloud-top entrainment (CTE) criterion. Shipboard cloud observation data confirm that the index is strongly correlated with LCC. It is argued here that changes in LCC cannot be fully determined from changes in EIS only, but can be better determined from changes in both EIS and sea surface temperature (SST) based on the ECTEI. Furthermore, it is argued that various proposed predictors of LCC change, including the moist static energy vertical gradient, SST, and midlevel clouds, can be better understood from the perspective of the ECTEI.

Changes in marine fog in a warmer climate are investigated through simulations using the atmospheric component of a global climate model, with both observed and perturbed sea surface temperature forcing. Global changes in marine fog occurrence in different seasons are compared. We show that the changes in marine fog occurrence correspond well to changes in horizontal temperature advection near the surface in a warmer climate. Therefore, the changes in marine fog can be well explained by large-scale circulation changes. Regarding changes in the characteristics of marine fog, we show that the in-cloud liquid water content of marine fog is consistently increased in a warmer climate, for a given horizontal surface temperature advection. It is also confirmed that the contribution of changes in marine fog to cloud feedback is not negligible, but is small.

Future responses of cloud regimes are analyzed for five CMIP5 models forced with observed SSTs and subject to a patterned SST perturbation. Correlations between cloud properties in the control climate and changes in the warmer climate are investigated for each of a set of cloud regimes defined using a clustering methodology. The only significant (negative) correlation found is in the in-regime net cloud radiative effect for the stratocumulus regime. All models overestimate the in-regime albedo of the stratocumulus regime. Reasons for this bias and its relevance to the future response are investigated. A detailed evaluation of the models’ daily-mean contributions to the albedo from stratocumulus clouds with different cloud cover fractions reveals that all models systematically underestimate the relative occurrence of overcast cases but overestimate those of broken clouds. In the warmer climate the relative occurrence of overcast cases tends to decrease while that of broken clouds increases. This suggests a decrease in the climatological in-regime albedo with increasing temperature (a positive feedback); this is opposite to the feedback suggested by the analysis of the bulk in-regime albedo. Furthermore we find that the inter-model difference in the sign of the in-cloud albedo feedback is consistent with the difference in sign of the in-cloud liquid water path response, and there is a strong positive correlation between the in-regime liquid water path in the control climate and its response to warming. We therefore conclude that further breakdown of the in-regime properties into cloud cover and in-cloud properties is necessary to better understand the behavior of the stratocumulus regime. Since cloud water is a physical property and is independent of a model’s radiative assumptions, it could potentially provide a useful emergent constraint on cloud feedback.

International audience; We examine the diurnal cycle of marine cloud feedback using high frequency outputs in CFMIP-2 idealised uniform +4 K SST perturbation experiments from seven CMIP5 models. Most of the inter-model spread in the diurnal mean marine shortwave cloud feedback can be explained by low cloud responses, although these do not explain the model responses at the neutral/weakly negative end of the feedback range, where changes in mid and high level cloud properties are more important. All of the models show reductions in marine low cloud fraction in the warmer climate, and these are in almost all cases largest in the mornings when more cloud is present in the control simulations. This results in shortwave cloud feedbacks being slightly stronger and having the largest inter-model spread at this time of day. The diurnal amplitudes of the responses of marine cloud properties to the warming climate are however small compared to the inter-model differences in their diurnally meaned responses. This indicates that the diurnal cycle of cloud feedback is not strongly relevant to understanding inter-model spread in overall cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A number of unusual behaviours in individual models are highlighted for future investigation. © 2014 Crown Copyright.

CGILS—the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs) and single column models (SCMs)—investigates the mechanisms of cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8 LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied: shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes, SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime, this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These mechanisms are summarized as the “NESTS” negative cloud feedback and the “SCOPE” positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface Turbulence under weaker Subsidence—Shallow Convection PositivE feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these interpretations.

International audience; Results are presented of the GASS/EUCLIPSE single-column model intercomparison study on the subtropical marine low-level cloud transition. A central goal is to establish the performance of state-of-the-art boundary-layer schemes for weather and climate models for this cloud regime, using large-eddy simulations of the same scenes as a reference. A novelty is that the comparison covers four different cases instead of one, in order to broaden the covered parameter space. Three cases are situated in the North-Eastern Pacific, while one reflects conditions in the North-Eastern Atlantic. A set of variables is considered that reflects key aspects of the transition process, making use of simple metrics to establish the model performance. Using this method, some longstanding problems in low-level cloud representation are identified. Considerable spread exists among models concerning the cloud amount, its vertical structure, and the associated impact on radiative transfer. The sign and amplitude of these biases differ somewhat per case, depending on how far the transition has progressed. After cloud breakup the ensemble median exhibits the well-known "too few too bright" problem. The boundary-layer deepening rate and its state of decoupling are both underestimated, while the representation of the thin capping cloud layer appears complicated by a lack of vertical resolution. Encouragingly, some models are successful in representing the full set of variables, in particular, the vertical structure and diurnal cycle of the cloud layer in transition. An intriguing result is that the median of the model ensemble performs best, inspiring a new approach in subgrid parameterization.

We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that ‘ConvOff’ models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed.

[1] Using NASA's A-Train satellite measurements, we evaluate the accuracy of cloud water content (CWC) and water vapor mixing ratio (H2O) outputs from 19 climate models submitted to the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and assess improvements relative to their counterparts for the earlier CMIP3. We find more than half of the models show improvements from CMIP3 to CMIP5 in simulating column-integrated cloud amount, while changes in water vapor simulation are insignificant. For the 19 CMIP5 models, the model spreads and their differences from the observations are larger in the upper troposphere (UT) than in the lower or middle troposphere (L/MT). The modeled mean CWCs over tropical oceans range from ~3% to ~15× of the observations in the UT and 40% to 2× of the observations in the L/MT. For modeled H2Os, the mean values over tropical oceans range from ~1% to 2× of the observations in the UT and within 10% of the observations in the L/MT. The spatial distributions of clouds at 215 hPa are relatively well-correlated with observations, noticeably better than those for the L/MT clouds. Although both water vapor and clouds are better simulated in the L/MT than in the UT, there is no apparent correlation between the model biases in clouds and water vapor. Numerical scores are used to compare different model performances in regards to spatial mean, variance and distribution of CWC and H2O over tropical oceans. Model performances at each pressure level are ranked according to the average of all the relevant scores for that level. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.