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The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a ‘blue economy’—socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity—not just resource availability—are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals. The capacity to create an equitable and sustainable ‘blue economy’ from ocean resources will be determined by addressing social conditions, governance and infrastructure, not just resource availability, as shown by a fuzzy logic model incorporating multidisciplinary criteria.

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future., We analysed the impacts of climate change on global mariculture species richness for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed species by the 2050s relative to the 2005s. Results of ensemble projections show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, potential mariculture species diversity is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) scenario by the mid‐21st century.

International audience; Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency and the biomass residence time in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean trophic transfer efficiency in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2,100 under the ‘no effective mitigation’ Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), while biomass residence time between trophic level 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 year on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the trophic transfer efficiencies and biomass residence times may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean trophic transfer efficiency and biomass residence time will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science Volume 12 is January 3, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

International audience; Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1 degrees latitude x1 degrees longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.

Sustainably managed wild fisheries support food and nutritional security, livelihoods, and cultures (1). Harmful fisheries subsidies—government payments that incentivize overcapacity and lead to overfishing—undermine these benefits yet are increasing globally (2). World Trade Organization (WTO) members have a unique opportunity at their ministerial meeting in November to reach an agreement that eliminates harmful subsidies (3). We—a group of scientists spanning 46 countries and 6 continents—urge the WTO to make this commitment...

WOS:000579835900001; International audience; The global ocean is commonly partitioned into 4 biomes subdivided into 56 biogeochemical provinces (BGCPs) following the accepted partition proposed by Longhurst in 1998. Each province corresponds to a unique regional environment that shapes biodiversity and constrains ecosystem structure and functions. BGCPs are dynamic entities that change their spatial extent and position with climate and are expected to be pertubated in the near future by global climate change. Here, we characterize the changes in spatial distribution of BGCPs from 1950 to 2100 using three earth system models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We project a reorganisation of current distribution of BGCPs driven mostly by a poleward shift of their distributions (18.4 km in average per decade). Projection of the future distribution of BGCPs also revealed the emergence of new climate that has no analogue with past and current environmental conditions experienced by BGCPs . This novel environmental conditions, here named No-Analogue BGCPs State (NABS), will expand from 2040 to 2100 at a rate of 4.3 Mkm2 per decade (1.2% of the global ocean). We subsequently quantified the potential amount of marine species and fisheries catch that would experience such novel environmental conditions to roughly evaluate NABS impact on ecosystem services.

Risk of impact of marine fishes to fishing and climate change (including ocean acidi- fication) depend on the species’ ecological and biological characteristics, as well as their exposure to over‐exploitation and climate hazards. These human‐induced haz- ards should be considered concurrently in conservation risk assessment. In this study, we aim to examine the combined contributions of climate change and fishing to the risk of impacts of exploited fishes, and the scope for climate‐risk reduction from fisheries management. We combine fuzzy logic expert system with species dis- tribution modeling to assess the extinction risks of climate and fishing impacts of 825 exploited marine fish species across the global ocean. We compare our calcu- lated risk index with extinction risk of marine species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Our results show that 60% (499 species) of the assessed species are projected to experience very high risk from both over- fishing and climate change under a “business‐as‐usual” scenario (RCP 8.5 with cur- rent status of fisheries) by 2050. The risk index is significantly and positively related to level of IUCN extinction risk (ordinal logistic regression, p20%) chance of having high extinction risk in the next few dec- ades (equivalent to the IUCN categories of vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered). Areas with more at‐risk species to climate change are in tropical and subtropical oceans, while those that are at risk to fishing are distributed more broadly, with higher concentration of at‐risk species in North Atlantic and South Pacific Ocean. The number of species with high extinction risk would decrease by 63% under the sustainable fisheries‐low emission scenario relative to the “business ‐as‐usual” scenario. This study highlights the substantial opportunities for climate ‐risk reduction through effective fisheries management.

The increase in anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the last century has modified oceanic conditions, affecting marine ecosystems and the goods and services that they provide to society. Pacific Island countries and territories are highly vulnerable to these changes because of their strong dependence on ocean resources, high level of exposure to climate effects, and low adaptive capacity. Projections of mid-to-late 21st century changes in sea surface temperature (SST), dissolved oxygen, pH, and net primary productivity (NPP) were synthesized across the tropical Western Pacific under strong climate mitigation and business-as-usual scenarios. These projections were used to model impacts on marine biodiversity and potential fisheries catches. Results were consistent across three climate models, indicating that SST will rise by ≥ 3 °C, surface dissolved oxygen will decline by ≥ 0.01 ml L −1 , pH will drop by ≥ 0.3, and NPP will decrease by 0.5 g m −2 d −1 across much of the region by 2100 under the business-as-usual scenario. These changes were associated with rates of local species extinction of > 50% in many regions as fishes and invertebrates decreased in abundance or migrated to regions with conditions more suitable to their bio-climate envelope. Maximum potential catch (MCP) was projected to decrease by > 50% across many areas, with the largest impacts in the western Pacific warm pool. Climate change scenarios that included strong mitigation resulted in substantial reductions of MCP losses, with the area where MCP losses exceeded 50% reduced from 74.4% of the region under business-as-usual to 36.0% of the region under the strong mitigation scenario.

In several Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), rapid population growth and inadequate management of coastal fish habitats and stocks is causing a gap to emerge between the amount of fish recommended for good nutrition and sustainable harvests from coastal fisheries. The effects of ocean warming and acidification on coral reefs, and the effects of climate change on mangrove and seagrass habitats, are expected to widen this gap. To optimise the contributions of small-scale fisheries to food security in PICTs, adaptations are needed to minimise and fill the gap. Key measures to minimise the gap include community-based approaches to: manage catchment vegetation to reduce sedimentation; maintain the structural complexity of fish habitats; allow landward migration of mangroves as sea level rises; sustain recruitment and production of demersal fish by managing ‘source’ populations; and diversify fishing methods to increase catches of species favoured by climate change. The main adaptions to help fill the gap in fish supply include: transferring some fishing effort from coral reefs to tuna and other large pelagic fish by scaling-up the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices; developing fisheries for small pelagic species; and extending the shelf life of catches by improving post-harvest methods. Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of yellowfin tuna, skipjack tuna, wahoo and mahi mahi, indicates that these species are likely to remain abundant enough to implement these adaptations in most PICTs until 2050. We conclude by outlining the policies needed to support the recommended adaptations.

Ocean warming and deoxygenation are affecting the physiological performance of marine species by increasing their oxygen demand while reducing oxygen supply. Impacts on organisms (e.g., growth and reproduction) can eventually affect entire populations, altering macroecological dynamics and shifting species’ distribution ranges. To quantify the effect of warming and deoxygenation on marine organisms, Penn et al. (2018) and Deutsch et al. (2020) developed two metabolic indices that integrate physiological, biogeographic and climatic data. Here, we develop an alternative index, referred to as Aerobic Growth Index (AGI) based on an approach that integrates the von Bertalanffy growth and metabolic theory. We compare the results derived from the application of AGI with those of the two previously published metabolic indices for six species: Atlantic blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), sharpsnout seabream (Diplodus puntazzo), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Australian spiny lobster (Panulirus cygnus), red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) and common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis). The baseline (1971–2000) habitat suitability values of AGI are significantly and positively correlated with both metabolic indices (R2 ≥ 0.92). All three indices also show similar spatial patterns and magnitudes of viable habitat loss by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) relative to baseline conditions under a high greenhouse gas trajectory (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Our results support the applicability and use of AGI to better understand the impacts of warming and deoxygenation on global marine fishery resources. Given the uncertainties surrounding mechanisms linking temperature, oxygen and biogeography, there is a need for different indicators to account for these uncertainties in climate change projections.

Aim Following the biogeographical approach implemented by Longhurst for the epipelagic layer, we propose here to identify a biogeochemical 3-D partition for the mesopelagic layer. The resulting partition characterizes the main deep environmental biotopes and their vertical boundaries on a global scale, which can be used as a geographical and ecological framework for conservation biology, ecosystem-based management and for the design of oceanographic investigations. Location The global ocean. Methods Based on the most comprehensive environmental climatology available to date, which is both spatially and vertically resolved (seven environmental parameters), we applied a combination of clustering algorithms (c-means, k-means, partition around medoids and agglomerative with Ward's linkage) associated with a nonparametric environmental model to identify the vertical and spatial delineation of the mesopelagic layer. Results First, we show via numerical interpretation that the vertical division of the pelagic zone varies and, hence, is not constant throughout the global ocean. Indeed, a latitudinal gradient is found between the epipelagic–mesopelagic and mesopelagic–bathypelagic vertical limits. Second, the mesopelagic layer is shown here to be composed of 13 distinguishable Biogeochemical Provinces. Each province shows a distinct range of environmental conditions and characteristic 3-D distributions. Main conclusions The historical definition of the mesopelagic zone is here revisited to define a 3-D geographical framework and characterize all the deep environmental biotopes of the deep global ocean. According to the numerical interpretation of mesopelagic boundaries, we reveal that the vertical division of the zone is not constant over the global ocean (200–1,000 m) but varies between ocean basin and with latitude. We also provide evidence of biogeochemical division of the mesopelagic zone that is spatially structured in a similar way than the epipelagic in the shallow waters but varies in the deep owing to a change of the environmental driving factors.

Understanding the distribution of life’s variety has driven naturalists and scientists for centuries, yet this has been constrained both by the available data and the models needed for their analysis. Here we compiled data for over 67,000 marine and terrestrial species and used artificial neural networks to model species richness with the state and variability of climate, productivity, and multiple other environmental variables. We find terrestrial diversity is better predicted by the available environmental drivers than is marine diversity, and that marine diversity can be predicted with a smaller set of variables. Ecological mechanisms such as geographic isolation and structural complexity appear to explain model residuals and also identify regions and processes that deserve further attention at the global scale. Improving estimates of the relationships between the patterns of global biodiversity, and the environmental mechanisms that support them, should help in efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and provide guidance for adapting to life in the Anthropocene.

Climate change is impacting marine ecosystems and their goods and services in diverse ways, which can directly hinder our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set out under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Through expert elicitation and a literature review, we find that most climate change effects have a wide variety of negative consequences across marine ecosystem services, though most studies have highlighted impacts from warming and consequences of marine species. Climate change is expected to negatively influence marine ecosystem services through global stressors—such as ocean warming and acidification—but also by amplifying local and regional stressors such as freshwater runoff and pollution load. Experts indicated that all SDGs would be overwhelmingly negatively affected by these climate impacts on marine ecosystem services, with eliminating hunger being among the most directly negatively affected SDG. Despite these challenges, the SDGs aiming to transform our consumption and production practices and develop clean energy systems are found to be least affected by marine climate impacts. These findings represent a strategic point of entry for countries to achieve sustainable development, given that these two goals are relatively robust to climate impacts and that they are important pre‐requisite for other SDGs. Our results suggest that climate change impacts on marine ecosystems are set to make the SDGs a moving target travelling away from us. Effective and urgent action towards sustainable development, including mitigating and adapting to climate impacts on marine systems are important to achieve the SDGs, but the longer this action stalls the more distant these goals will become.

The global ocean is projected to be warmer, less oxygenated and more acidic in the 21st century relative to the present day, resulting in changes in the biogeography and productivity of marine organisms and ecosystems. Previous studies using a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) projected increases in potential catch in high latitude regions and decreases in tropical regions over the next few decades. A major structural uncertainty of the projected redistribution of species and fisheries catches can be attributed to the habitat suitability algorithms used. Here, we compare the DBEM projections of potential catches of 500 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates from 1971 to 2060 using three versions of DBEM that differ by the algorithm used to predict relative habitat suitability: DBEM-Basic, DBEM-Maxent and DBEM-Aquamaps. All the DBEM models have similar skill in predicting the occurrence of exploited species and distribution of observed fisheries production. Globally, the models project a decrease in catch potential of 3% to 13% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). For the majority of the modelled species, projections by DBEM-Maxent are less sensitive to changes in ocean properties than those by DBEM-Aquamaps. The mean magnitude of projected changes relative to differences between projections differ between regions, being highest (>1 times the standard deviation) in the tropical regions and Arctic Ocean and lowest in three of the main Eastern Boundary Upwelling regions, the eastern Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These results suggest that the qualitative patterns of changes in catch potential reported in previous studies are not affected by the structural uncertainty of DBEM, particularly in areas where catch potential was projected to be most sensitive to climate change. However, when making projections of fish stocks and their potential catches using DBEM in the future, multiple versions of DBEM should be used to quantify the uncertainty associated with structural uncertainty of the models. Overall, this study contributes to improving projection of future changes in living marine resources by exploring one aspect of the cascade of uncertainty associated with such projections.

In recent decades, the relationships between species distributional shifts and climate change have been investigated at various geographic scales, yet there is still a gap in understanding the impacts of climate change on marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) is a mechanistic model that encompass species distribution model and population dynamic model approaches to project the spatiotemporal change of marine commercial fish species driven by various climate change scenarios in the Southern Ocean. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) from 1970 to 2060 following three different Earth System Models (ESMs), namely, the GFDL-ESM 2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-MR. Results reveal that: i) The general latitudinal gradient patterns in species richness shifts poleward associated with a global abundance decrease ii) The Spp. richness in Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) is higher than in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at the same latitude (>65°S latitude). iii) The reasons are that the krill-dependent predators in WAP could face a higher risk of depletion than that in EAP due to ocean warming and anthropogenic activities.

The ocean is a critical source of nutrition for billions of people, with potential to yield further food, profits, and employment in the future ( 1 ). But fisheries face a serious new challenge as climate change drives the ocean to conditions not experienced historically. Local, national, regional, and international fisheries are substantially underprepared for geographic shifts in marine animals driven by climate change over the coming decades. Fish and other animals have already shifted into new territory at a rate averaging 70 km per decade ( 2 ), and these shifts are expected to continue or accelerate ( 3 ). We show here that many species will likely shift across national and other political boundaries in the coming decades, creating the potential for conflict over newly shared resources.

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

International audience; Growing evidence has shown a profound modification of plankton communities of the North East Atlantic and adjacent seas over the past decades. This drastic change has been attributed to a modification of the environmental conditions that regulate the dynamics and the spatial distribution of ectothermic species in the ocean. Recently, several studies have highlighted modifications of the regional climate station L4 (50° 15.00′N, 4° 13.02′W) in the Western English Channel. We here focus on the modification of the plankton community by studying the long-term, annual and seasonal changes of five zooplankton groups and eight copepod genera. We detail the main composition and the phenology of the plankton communities during four climatic periods identified at the L4 station: 1988–1994, 1995–2000, 2001–2007 and 2008–2012. Our results show that long-term environmental changes underlined by Molinero et al. (2013) drive a profound restructuration of the plankton community modifying the phenology and the dominance of key planktonic groups including fish larvae. Consequently, the slow but deep modifications detected in the plankton community highlight a climate driven ecosystem shift in the Western English Channel.

Regionalisation aims at delimiting provinces within which physical conditions, chemical properties, and biological communities are reasonably homogeneous. This article proposes a synthesis of the many recent regionalisations of the open-sea regions of the Mediterranean Sea. The nine studies considered here defined regions based on different, and sometimes complementary, criteria: dynamics of surface chlorophyll concentration, ocean currents, three-dimensional hydrological and biogeochemical properties, or the distribution of organisms. Although they identified different numbers and patterns of homogeneous regions, their compilation in the epipelagic zone identifies nine consensus frontiers, eleven consensus regions with relatively homogeneous conditions, and four heterogeneous regions with highly dynamical conditions. The consensus frontiers and regions are in agreement with well-known hydrodynamical features of the Mediterranean Sea, which constrain the distribution of hydrological and ecological variables. The heterogeneous regions are rather defined by intense mesoscale activity. The synthesis proposed here could constitute a reference step for management actions and spatial planning, such as the application of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and for future biogeochemical and ecological studies in the Mediterranean Sea., This study was conducted as part of the WP5 MERMEX/MISTRALS project and is a contribution to the international SOLAS, IMBER and LOICZ programs. The lead authors are grateful to Pr. Philippe Koubbi (MNHN) for initiating (eco)regionalisation studies of the Mediterranean Sea at the Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche sur mer (LOV, UPMC/CNRS). Some initial thoughts that have led to this synthesis were also supported by the PlankMed action of WP5 MERMEX and by the EC FP7 PERSEUS Project (Policy-oriented marine Environmental Research in the Southern EUropean Seas; Grant. Agr. 287600).

International audience; When dividing the ocean, the aim is generally to summarise a complex system into a representative number of units, each representing a specific environment, a biological community or a socio-economical specificity. Recently, several geographical partitions of the global ocean have been proposed using statistical approaches applied to remote sensing or observations gathered during oceanographic cruises. Such geographical frameworks defined at a macroscale appear hardly applicable to characterise the biogeochemical features of semi-enclosed seas that are driven by smaller-scale chemical and physical processes. Following the Longhurst’s biogeochemical partitioning of the pelagic realm, this study investigates the environmental divisions of the Mediterranean Sea using a large set of environmental parameters. These parameters were informed in the horizontal and the vertical dimensions to provide a 3D spatial framework for environmental management (12 regions found for the epipelagic, 12 for the mesopelagic, 13 for the bathypelagic and 26 for the seafloor). We show that: (1) the contribution of the longitudinal environmental gradient to the biogeochemical partitions decreases with depth; (2) the partition of the surface layer cannot be extrapolated to other vertical layers as the partition is driven by a different set of environmental variables. This new partitioning of the Mediterranean Sea has strong implications for conservation as it highlights that management must account for the differences in zoning with depth at a regional scale.

[1] In recent decades, it has been found useful to partition the pelagic environment using the concept of biogeochemical provinces, or BGCPs, within each of which it is assumed that environmental conditions are distinguishable and unique at global scale. The boundaries between provinces respond to features of physical oceanography and, ideally, should follow seasonal and interannual changes in ocean dynamics. But this ideal has not been fulfilled except for small regions of the oceans. Moreover, BGCPs have been used only as static entities having boundaries that were originally established to compute global primary production. In the present study, a new statistical methodology based on non-parametric procedures is implemented to capture the environmental characteristics within 56 BGCPs. Four main environmental parameters (bathymetry, chlorophyll a concentration, surface temperature, and salinity) are used to infer the spatial distribution of each BGCP over 1997–2007. The resulting dynamic partition allows us to integrate changes in the distribution of BGCPs at seasonal and interannual timescales, and so introduces the possibility of detecting spatial shifts in environmental conditions.

Marine benefits of the Paris Agreement Keeping recent global agreements to limit temperature increases to 1.5° to 2°C above preindustrial levels will have benefits across terrestrial ecosystems. But what about marine ecosystems? Cheung et al. modeled the influence of temperature increases on two key measures of fishery sustainability, catch and species turnover (see the Perspective by Fulton). Limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C substantially improved catch potential and decreased turnover of harvested species. These results provide further support for meeting this important goal. Science , this issue p. 1591 ; see also p. 1530

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

International audience; The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has collected plankton since 1958 in the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas. Among all species recorded by the CPR, Calanus finmarchicus has probably been the most investigated species because of its ecological importance for the temperate and subpolar regions of the North Atlantic Ocean. However, abundances of C. finmarchicus assessed from the CPR survey have been rarely compared to more traditional sampling methodologies. In this study, we examine and compare spatial (surface and vertical) and temporal (diel and seasonal) patterns in the abundance of C. finmarchicus with another sampling technique in the gulf of Maine. Our results provide evidence that the CPR survey not only gives internally consistent time series of C. finmarchicus, but also an accurate representation of both spatial (surface and vertical) and temporal (diel and seasonal) patterns.

Aim The aims of this study were: (1) to identify global communities of tuna and billfish species through quantitative statistical analyses of global fisheries data; (2) to describe the spatial distribution, main environmental drivers and species composition of each community detected; and (3) to determine whether the spatial distribution of each community could be linked to the environmental conditions that affect lower trophic levels by comparing the partitions identified in this study with Longhurst’s biogeochemical provinces. Location The global ocean from 60° S to 65° N. Methods We implemented a new numerical procedure based on a hierarchical clustering method and a nonparametric probabilistic test to divide the oceanic biosphere into biomes and ecoregions. This procedure was applied to a database that comprised standardized data on commercial longline catches for 15 different species of tuna and billfish over a period of more than 50 years (i.e. 1953–2007). For each ecoregion identified (i.e. characteristic tuna and billfish community), we analysed the relationships between species composition and environmental factors. Finally, we compared the biogeochemical provinces of Longhurst with the ecoregions that we identified. Results Tuna and billfish species form nine well-defined communities across the global ocean. Each community occurs in regions with specific environmental conditions and shows a distinctive species composition. High similarity (68.8% homogeneity) between the spatial distribution of the communities of tuna and billfish and the biogeochemical provinces suggests a strong relationship between these species and the physical and chemical characteristics of the global ocean. Main conclusions Despite their high tolerance for a wide range of environmental conditions, these highly migratory species are partitioned into clear geographical communities in the ocean at a global scale. The similarity between biogeochemical and biotic divisions in the ocean suggests that the global ocean is a mosaic of large biogeographical ecosystems, each characterized by specific environmental conditions that have a strong effect on the composition of the trophic web.

International audience; Understanding how external pressures impact ecosystem structure and functioning is essential for ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. We quantified the relative effects of fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions on ecological indicators derived from two different data sources, fisheries catch data (catch-based) and fisheries independent survey data (survey-based) for 12 marine ecosystems using a partial least squares path modeling approach (PLS-PM). We linked these ecological indicators to the total biomass of the ecosystem. Although the effects of exploitation and environmental conditions differed across the ecosystems, some general results can be drawn from the comparative approach. Interestingly, the PLS-PM analyses showed that survey-based indicators were less tightly associated with each other than the catch-based ones. The analyses also showed that the effects of environmental conditions on the ecological indicators were predominantly significant, and tended to be negative, suggesting that in the recent period, indicators accounted for changes in environmental conditions and the changes were more likely to be adverse. Total biomass was associated with fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions; however its association with the ecological indicators was weak across the ecosystems. Knowledge of the relative influence of exploitation and environmental pressures on the dynamics within exploited ecosystems will help us to move towards ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. PLS-PM proved to be a useful approach to quantify the relative effects of fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions and suggest it could be used more widely in fisheries oceanography.

International audience; Remote sensing techniques are used to study the large scale patterns related to the seasonal modes of variability of the marine phytoplankton. Ten years of monthly composite maps of sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration and the PHYSAT database of four Phytoplanktonic Functional Types (PFTs), both from SeaWiFS, are used to investigate characteristics of phytoplankton seasonality in the trades and westerlies wind oceanic biomes, where data density is adequate. We use a combination of wavelet transform and statistical techniques that allow us to quantify both intensity and duration of the seasonal oscillation of chlorophyll-a concentration and PFTs relative occurrence, and to map these relationships. Next, the seasonal oscillations detected are related to four PFTs revealing six major global phytoplanktonic associations. Our results elucidate the intensity and duration of the seasonal dynamic of the chlorophyll-a concentration and of the relative occurrence of four PFTs at a global scale. Thus, the typology of the different types of seasonality is investigated. Finally, an overall agreement between the results and the biogeochemical provinces partition proposed by Longhurst is found, revealing a strong environmental control on the seasonal oscillation of primary producers and a clear latitudinal organization in the succession of the phytoplankton types. Results provided in this study quantify the seasonal oscillation of key structural parameters of the global ocean, and their potential implications for our understanding of ecosystem dynamics.

Chassot, E., Bonhommeau, S., Reygondeau, G., Nieto, K., Polovina, J. J., Huret, M., Dulvy, N. K., and Demarcq, H. 2011. Satellite remote sensing for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 651–666. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) of the marine environment has become instrumental in ecology for environmental monitoring and impact assessment, and it is a promising tool for conservation issues. In the context of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM), global, daily, systematic, high-resolution images obtained from satellites provide a good data source for incorporating habitat considerations into marine fish population dynamics. An overview of the most common SRS datasets available to fishery scientists and state-of-the-art data-processing methods is presented, focusing on recently developed techniques for detecting mesoscale features such as eddies, fronts, filaments, and river plumes of major importance in productivity enhancement and associated fish aggregation. A comprehensive review of remotely sensed data applications in fisheries over the past three decades for investigating the relationships between oceanographic conditions and marine resources is provided, emphasizing how synoptic and information-rich SRS data have become instrumental in ecological analyses at community and ecosystem scales. Finally, SRS data, in conjunction with automated in situ data-acquisition systems, can provide the scientific community with a major source of information for ecosystem modelling, a key tool for implementing an EAFM.

International audience; Many authors have suggested that the abundance of the subarctic species Calanus finmarchicus can be influenced by the structure of the water column. Unfortunately to date, such a link has never been confirmed either experimentally or statistically. By using a macroecological approach, we investigated this hypothesis and showed that it varies with the developmental staged of the species. First, we implemented a new statistical procedure, based on an exponentially weighted moving average, to identify and quantify the depth and intensity of the thermocline. We applied the technique on 1,005,619 temperature profiles over the North Atlantic Ocean and provided a mapping of these two descriptors at a seasonal scale. Second, we studied the relationships between the depth and the intensity of the thermocline and Calanus finmarchicus using a biological dataset of 99,599 sampling stations. Our results suggested that the characteristics of the water column influence the spatial distribution of C. finmarchicus. The frequency in the occurrence of this species decreases when stratification rises. Our results further revealed that the effect is more pronounced on young copepodite stages. Such findings are of interest since, in a warmer world, water stratification is expected to increase, making more likely a reduction in the abundance of this key-structural species.

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.