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Many observations in and model simulations for northern basins have confirmed an increased streamflow from degrading permafrost, while the streamflow has declined in the source area of the Yellow River (SAYR, above the Tanag hydrological station) on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, West China. How and to what extent does the degrading permafrost change the flow in the SAYR? According to seasonal regimes of hydrological processes, the SAYR is divided into four sub-basins with varied permafrost extents to detect impacts of permafrost degradation on the Yellow River streamflow. Results show that permafrost degradation may have released appreciable meltwater for recharging groundwater. The potential release rate of ground-ice melt-water in the Sub-basin 1 (the headwater area of the Yellow River (HAYR), above the Huangheyan hydrological station) is the highest (5.6 mm per year), contributing to 14.4% of the annual Yellow River streamflow at Huangheyan. Seasonal/intra- and annual shifts of streamflow, a possible signal for the marked alteration of hydrological processes by permafrost degradation, is observed in the HAYR, but the shifts are minor in other sub-basins in the SAYR. Improved hydraulic connectivity is expected to occur during and after certain degrees of permafrost degradation. Direct impacts of permafrost degradation on the annual Yellow River streamflow in the SAYR at Tanag, i.e., from the meltwater of ground-ice, is estimated at 4.9% that of the annual Yellow River discharge at Tanag, yet with a high uncertainty, due to neglecting of the improved hydraulic connections from permafrost degradation and the flow generation conditions for the ground-ice meltwater. Enhanced evapotranspiration, substantial weakening of the Southwest China Autumn Rain, and anthropogenic disturbances may largely account for the declined streamflow in the SAYR. Keywords: Streamflow, Warming climate, Permafrost degradation, Streamflow patterns, Source area of Yellow River (SAYR)

Human activities have substantially altered present-day flow regimes. The Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR, above Huanghe’yan Hydrological Station, with a catchment area of 21,000 km2 and an areal extent of alpine permafrost at ~86%) on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China has been undergoing extensive changes in streamflow regimes and groundwater dynamics, permafrost degradation, and ecological deterioration under a warming climate. In general, hydrological gauges provide reliable flow records over many decades and these data are extremely valuable for assessment of changing rates and trends of streamflow. In 1998–2003, the damming of the Yellow River by the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR complicated the examination of the relations between hydroclimatic variables and streamflow dynamics. In this study, the monthly streamflow rate of the Yellow River at Huanghe’yan is reconstructed for the period of 1955–2019 using the double mass curve method, and then the streamflow at Huagnhe’yan is forecasted for the next 20 years (2020–2040) using the Elman neural network time-series method. The dam construction (1998–2000) has caused a reduction of annual streamflow by 53.5–68.4%, and a more substantial reduction of 71.8–94.4% in the drier years (2003–2005), in the HAYR. The recent removal of the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR dam (September 2018) has boosted annual streamflow by 123–210% (2018–2019). Post-correction trends of annual maximum (QMax) and minimum (QMin) streamflow rates and the ratio of the QMax/QMin of the Yellow River in the HAYR (0.18 and 0.03 m3·s−1·yr−1 and −0.04 yr−1, respectively), in comparison with those of precorrection values (−0.11 and −0.004 m3·s−1·yr−1 and 0.001 yr−1, respectively), have more truthfully revealed a relatively large hydrological impact of degrading permafrost. Based on the Elman neural network model predictions, over the next 20 years, the increasing trend of flow in the HAYR would generally accelerate at a rate of 0.42 m3·s−1·yr−1. Rising rates of spring (0.57 m3·s−1·yr−1) and autumn (0.18 m3·s−1·yr−1) discharge would see the benefits from an earlier snow-melt season and delayed arrival of winter conditions. This suggests a longer growing season, which indicates ameliorating phonology, soil nutrient availability, and hydrothermal environments for vegetation in the HAYR. These trends for hydrological and ecological changes in the HAYR may potentially improve ecological safety and water supplies security in the HAYR and downstream Yellow River basins.

Global warming has been commonly accepted to facilitate species’ range shifts across latitudes. Cross-latitudinal transplantations support this; many tree species can well adapt to new geographical areas. However, these studies fail to capture species’ adaptations to new light environment because the experiments were not designed to explicitly separate species’ responses to light and temperature. Here we tested reaction norms of tree seedlings in reciprocal transplantations 1,000 km apart from each other at two latitudes (60°N and 69°N). In contrast to past studies, we exposed our experimental plants to same temperature in both sites (temperature of 60°N growing site is recorded to adjust temperature of 69°N site in real time via Internet connection) while light environment (photoperiod, light quality) remained ambient. Shoot elongation and autumn coloration were studied in seedlings of two deciduous trees (Betula pendula and Sorbus aucuparia), which were expected to respond differently to day length. Sorbus as a member of Rosaceae family was assumed to be indifferent to photoperiod, while Betula responds strongly to day length. We hypothesized that (1) southern and northern populations of both species perform differently; (2) southern populations perform better in both sites; (3) autumn phenology of southern populations may delay in the northern site; (4) and Sorbus aucuparia is less dependent on light environment. According to the hypotheses, shoot elongation of northern population was inherently low in both species. An evolutionary consequence of this may be a competitive success of southern populations under warming climate. Southern population of B. pendula was delayed in autumn coloration, but not in growth cessation. Sorbus aucuparia was less responsive to light environment. The results suggest that light provides selection pressure in range shifts, but the response is species dependent.

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

The acclimation capacity of leading edge tree populations is crucially important in a warming climate. Theoretical considerations suggest that adaptation through genetic change is needed, but this may be a slow process. Both positive and catastrophic outcomes have been predicted, while empirical studies have lagged behind theory development. Here we present results of a 30-year study of 55,000 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees, planted in 15 common gardens in three consecutive years near and beyond the present Scots pine tree line. Our results show that, contrary to earlier predictions, even long-distance transfers to the North can be successful when soil fertility is high. This suggests that present northern populations have a very high acclimation capacity. We also found that while temperature largely controls Scots pine growth, soil nutrient availability plays an important role-in concert with interpopulation genetic variation-in Scots pine survival and fitness in tree line conditions. These results suggest that rapid range expansions and substantial growth enhancements of Scots pine are possible in fertile sites as seed production and soil nutrient mineralization are both known to increase under a warming climate. Finally, as the ontogenetic pattern of tree mortality was highly site specific and unpredictable, our results emphasize the need for long-term field trials when searching for the factors that control fitness of trees in the variable edaphic and climatic conditions of the far North.

Pigeon et al. (2016) Staying cool in a changing landscape: the influence of maximum daily ambient temperature on grizzly bear habitat selection. Oecologia 181:1101. doi:10.1007/s00442-016-3630-5 analyzed the effect of ambient temperature on the habitat selection of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in Alberta, Canada. They concluded that temperature played a significant role in bear habitat selection and that it was unlikely that human activity introduced biases to the habitat selection of bears. However, Pigeon et al. did not consider variables related to human activities in their analyses. They also misinterpreted previous research that has accounted for temperature in the habitat selection of brown bears. There is much literature published on the negative effects of human disturbance on wildlife in general and on bears in particular. Downplaying the role of human disturbance could have important negative consequences if, in fact, human disturbance were a more important factor than thermoregulation. Indeed, dismissing the importance of human influence, in the face of contradictory evidence, could tempt managers to disregard an important factor that is difficult and often unpopular to deal with in their conservation plans.

Maintaining high double rice productivity in China is very important for ensuring the food security of China. However, the double rice production system is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. Previous studies showed that rice production has been negatively impacted by global warming without considering the changes of cultivars and management practices. However, cultivar improvements and the impact of cultivar change must not be ignored in any assessment. In the current study, we combined data analysis with crop modeling to investigate the impacts of changes in climate and cultivars on rice productivity at three different double rice sites (Nanchang, Hengyang, and Gaoyao) in China. The results showed a warming trend at the study sites during 1981&ndash, 2009, and the temperature increase rates (maximum, average, and minimum temperatures) in the late rice growing season were larger than in the early rice growing season. Global warming has led to a reduction in the length of the rice growth period. Adopting new rice cultivars may partially mitigate the declining trend of the growing duration and grain yield, but it would not completely compensate for the negative impact observed in double rice regions. In general, the changes in cultivars prolonged the growing duration by increasing the basic vegetative phase and the photoperiod formation phase. The main reasons for yield improvement were the increase in the percentage of filled grains for early rice and the increase in grain number per spike for late rice. In the face of future warming, breeding efforts are necessary for producing new cultivars that are resilient to the negative impacts of future climate change on agriculture.

Fichier fasta (alignement file, 46 haplotypes); International audience; Although climate change is currently affecting the distribution of many species, insects are particularly impacted because of their high sensitivity to temperature. The pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is a forest insect extending its distribution in response to climate warming. Some pioneer colonies were recently detected far beyond the main range, near Paris and in eastern France. This study tracked the origin and pathways of these pioneer colonies through a combined use of genetic markers, measurement of female flight capabilities, and comparative analyses of the natural enemy complexes. This study also aimed to determine the establishment capability beyond the main range, considering the survival rate during two recent cold periods. The larval survival rate was higher in pioneer colonies (which behave like urban heat islands) than in main range. The flight capacity of females would not have allowed them to come from the main range or the nearest established colonies, and molecular tools further showed that individuals from at least three pioneer colonies were not assigned or similar to individuals at the edge of the main range. Egg parasitoids were absent while pupal parasitoids were present in the pioneer colonies suggesting an introduction at the pupal stage. These approaches provided strong evidence that this species has been accidentally moved near Paris and to eastern France, supporting the hypothesis of human-mediated transportation over natural dispersal. This type of dispersal was unexpected because of risks from urticating hairs and the easy detection of the species.