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Matching methods encompass non-parametric approaches to estimating counterfactual states through a rigorous selection of control units with similar characteristics to units submitted to an intervention. These methods enable comparisons between treated and control units in a way that facilitates understanding of causal relationships between interventions and outcomes. Matching methods have been used only recently in ecology and conservation biology, where such applications changed the way the field investigates causal questions, for example, in impact-evaluation studies. However, the strengths and limitations of matching methods are not well understood by most ecologists and environmental scientists. Herein, we review state-of-the-art matching methods aiming to help fill this gap in understanding. First, we present relevant theoretical concepts related to matching methods and related subjects such as counterfactual states and causation. Next, we propose guidelines and strategies for the application of matching methods in ecology and conservation biology. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for future applications of matching methods in the environmental sciences.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) in the South Pacific have a unique history that calls for a regional-scale synthesis of MPA impacts and the factors related to positive ecological and socioeconomic change. However, recommendations of best approaches to MPA implementation can be made only when evaluation techniques are sound. Impact evaluation involves quantifying the effects of an intervention over and above the counterfactual of no intervention or a different intervention. Determining the true impact of an MPA can be challenging because additional factors beyond the presence of an MPA can confound the observed results (e.g. differences in ecological or socioeconomic conditions between MPA and control sites). While impact evaluation techniques employing counterfactual thinking have been well developed in other fields, they have been embraced only slowly in the MPA evaluation literature. We conducted a structured literature search and synthesis of MPA evaluation studies from the South Pacific to determine: (i) the overall ecological and socioeconomic impacts of MPAs in the region, (ii) what factors were associated with positive, neutral, or negative impacts, and (iii) to what extent the MPA evaluation literature from the region has incorporated counterfactual thinking and robust impact evaluation techniques. Based on 52 identified studies, 42% of measured ecological impacts were positive. While 72% of socioeconomic impacts were positive, these were from only eight studies. The proportion of positive impacts was comparable between community-based and centrally governed MPAs, suggesting that both governance approaches are viable options in the region. No-take MPAs had a greater number of positive ecological impacts than periodic closures and there was little evidence of any long-term ecological recovery within periodic closures following harvesting. Importantly, more than half of the studies examined (59%) did not provide any clear consideration of factors beyond the presence of the MPA that might have confounded their results. We conclude that counterfactual thinking has yet to be fully embraced in impact evaluation studies in the region and recommend pathways by which progress can be made.

Legislation to ban the targeted fishing of sharks is frequently employed within developing coastal nations. These Shark Large Marine Protected Areas (SLMPAs) are established primarily to alleviate the direct threats that humans pose to sharks through activities such as overfishing and destructive fishing practices. However, despite the anthropogenic nature of these threats, socioeconomic factors are often given less consideration than their ecological counterparts when designating SLMPAs. In this paper, we identified and examined relevant national-level socioeconomic data to determine the challenges and opportunities associated with implementing SLMPAs, focussing on least developed and low income countries. We aimed to use these socioeconomic data to identify nations where SLMPAs are more likely to be successful in providing conservation benefits to sharks. We used principal component analysis to develop two national-level indices that represent these anticipated opportunities and challenges for implementing SLMPAs across 87 coastal nations. The Opportunity Index identifies those nations in which socioeconomic conditions such as adaptive capacity, and strong and fair governance, are favourable for SLMPAs to provide conservation benefits to sharks. The Challenge Index identifies those nations that may not yet be in a position developmentally to support communities to adapt to a loss of access to resources associated with SLMPAs, or to manage and enforce broad scale restrictive legislation. In combination with biophysical considerations, the Challenge and Opportunity indices presented here can support policy makers in deciding whether, and in what cases, SLMPAs are the most appropriate measure to provide conservation benefits to sharks.

In recent decades, the number and extent of protected areas (PAs) have increased, covering >10% of the Earth. However, protection tends to be residual because PAs have been consistently established on marginal lands that minimize costs and conflicts with extractive uses instead of focusing on places important to biodiversity. Here, we provide a panorama of the current network of PAs in Brazil, examine the biases of protection in relation to slope and land use intensity, and determine whether biases vary between biomes. We measured protection bias by accounting for differences between PAs and the municipalities in which they were established, indicating the direction and strength of bias. Brazil has 18% of its land under protection, but 70% of this is in the Amazon. Brazil's other biomes hardly reach 10% of their territories under protection and have strong protection bias. Generally, PAs are strongly biased towards lands with low intensity of use before they were established compared to their background landscapes. There was a small bias towards high slope, but most PAs had the same slope profile as their background landscapes. Trusting percentages of area under protection as a measure of conservation success risks misdirecting conservation actions to areas of lower biological importance and lower threat. To promote effective conservation actions more evidence-informed strategies should be used, based on appropriate ecological criteria and explicit objectives that allow us to measure the likely conservation impacts.

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd In 2012, Australia proclaimed a national marine protected area (MPA) system - the National Representative System of MPAs (NRSMPA). Following a change in federal government, the system underwent two major revisions: an independent review released in 2015, and a final plan designed by the Director of National Parks implemented in 2018. We used all three iterations of the NRSMPA, from 2012 to 2018, to compare: 1. the MPA zoning composition, using IUCN protected area categories; 2. the achievement of goals for representing biophysical features; and 3. the potential to mitigate threats to biodiversity from commercial fishing and offshore petroleum extraction. We found that protection levels in the NRSMPA were downgraded in 2018, compared to 2012 and 2015 iterations. Although each iteration met its qualitative goals, the lack of quantitative goals meant that representation of biophysical features was highly uneven and dominated by MPAs offering little protection against the impacts of extractive uses. Moreover, existing areas with value for pelagic longlining, demersal trawling, and offshore petroleum extraction were largely avoided by MPAs, irrespective of their biophysical features. MPAs, especially those with high protection, resulted in little forgone fisheries catch and revenue, likely providing few safeguards for species threatened by fishing. Changes in the NRSMPA over time have left more areas open to fishing, particularly pelagic fishing and notably in the Coral Sea. By focusing on meeting poorly defined representation goals instead of threat reduction, changes to the NRSMPA over time have increased the exposure of Australia's marine biodiversity to known threats.

Stakeholder engagement is essential to conserve ecosystems and associated biodiversity. Outdoor recreation specialists represent stakeholder groups that often rely on specific healthy ecosystems and have unique incentives to contribute to conservation and stewardship. We introduce the concept of habitat-dependent outdoor recreation conservation organizations (HDORCOs) and their potential to harness outdoor recreation enthusiasm to achieve ecosystem-scale conservation objectives. We identify potential roles for HDORCOs in nurturing pro-environmental attitudes and facilitating stewardship behavior among recreationists, focusing on examples from recreational fishing specialists and coastal marine ecosystems. While HDORCOs have achieved conservation outcomes in a range of settings, transferability across recreational specializations and ecological, cultural, socioeconomic, and governance contexts could remain challenging and potentially requires further development of the HDORCO concept. Communication with HDORCOs is one strategy to enhance engagement of recreationists, stakeholder groups not traditionally associated with pro-environmental behavior, in ecosystem-scale conservation efforts.

Suppressing expert knowledge can hide environmentally damaging practices and policies from public scrutiny. We surveyed ecologists and conservation scientists from universities, government, and industry across Australia to understand the prevalence and consequences of suppressing science communication. Government (34%) and industry (30%) respondents reported higher rates of undue interference by employers than did university respondents (5%). Internal communications (29%) and media (28%) were curtailed most, followed by journal articles (11%), and presentations (12%). When university and industry researchers avoided public commentary, this was mainly for fear of media misrepresentation, while government employees were most often constrained by senior management and workplace policy. One third of respondents reported personal suffering related to suppression, including job losses and deteriorating mental health. Substantial reforms are needed, including to codes of practice, and governance of environmental assessments and research, so that scientific advice can be reported openly, in a timely manner and free from interference.

Combining no-take marine reserves with exclusive access by communities to unreserved waters could provide the required incentives for community management to achieve positive impacts. However, few protected areas have been critically evaluated for their impact, which involves applying counterfactual thinking to predict conditions within protected areas if management had never occurred. Here, we use statistical matching to conduct a rigorous impact evaluation of dual management systems on coral reef fishes in Tonga, with communities having both full no-take areas and areas of exclusive fishing rights. No-take areas generally had positive impacts on the species richness, biomass, density, and size of target reef fish, while exclusive access areas were similar to predicted counterfactual conditions. The latter is likely because overall fishing pressure in exclusive access areas might not actually change, although more fish could be exploited by communities with access rights. Our findings suggest that dual management is effective at incentivizing effective community-based no-take areas for biodiversity conservation and resource management.

© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1.Marine protected areas (MPAs) are today's cornerstone of many marine conservation strategies. Our 2015 study (Devillers et al., 2015) and others have shown, however, that the placement of MPAs is ‘residual’ to commercial uses and biased towards areas of lower economic value or interest. 2.In this paper, we explored the impact of our study on marine science, policy and management practice. 3.We reviewed the papers citing our work and compiled expert opinions on some of the impacts of our study. 4.Results indicate a strong general uptake in the scientific community but more uneven impacts on policy and management in different contexts, with a likely smaller impact of the research on conservation practice.

The expansion of coastal marine protected areas can suffer from two key drawbacks: (a) the difficulty of incentivizing local communities to manage areas for conservation when their livelihoods also depend on resource use; and (b) that many protected areas get situated residually, or in locations with limited value for either biodiversity conservation or livelihoods. Here, we discuss and analyze key characteristics of Tonga's Special Management Area (SMA) program, including both the mechanisms that have motivated its successful national expansion and its ability to configure no-take reserves in areas that are considered to have high value to resource users. Granting communities exclusive access zones in exchange for implementing no-take reserves has encouraged conservation actions while fostering long-term relationships with resources. Ensuring no-take reserves occurred within the boundaries of exclusive access zones enabled communities to protect areas of greater extractive values than they would have otherwise. We conclude that the success of this program offers a way forward for achieving targets in the global expansion marine protected areas.

BackgroundEstablishing protected areas is a key approach to protecting nature. However, protected areas are often biased towards remote and less productive lands. It is important to evaluate the impacts protected areas have had, or in other words, what changes in outcomes of interest are attributable to protected areas. Studies that evaluate the impact of protected areas on vegetation—the state and processes that support biodiversity—are scarce and published in a range of disciplines. This systematic review will scope, identify, and synthesize studies that quantitatively measure the impact of protected areas on vegetation extent and condition. The findings will be useful for researchers and policy makers and provide important knowledge for setting post 2020 targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. This review will also identify research gaps in the current evidence base and provide direction for future research.MethodsThis review follows the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence guidelines for evidence synthesis and complies with the ROSES (RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Synthesis) reporting framework. We will use a comprehensive search strategy developed through several rounds of scoping review to cover databases; Web of Science, Scopus and CAB Abstracts, 16 organizational websites, google scholar and existing review documents. Our search terms and strategies aim to find impact evaluation studies (both peer-reviewed and grey literature) in English from protected areas globally. The search results will be screened at title, abstract, and then full text by two independent reviewers. A quality appraisal of evidence will be conducted using Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) risk of bias tool. Review results will be presented in the form of narrative synthesis, as well as in meta-analysis form, where data quality and amount allow.

Effectively controlling invasive species on islands is a critical aspect of global conservation. Having the potential to outcompete or consume native species, it is particularly important to remove them from islands harbouring unique flora and fauna. Lord Howe Island, a World Heritage listed area to the east of the Australian mainland, is in the midst of a long-term weed management project, where the most prolific invasive species is cherry guava, with over 700,000 plants removed so far. In such projects, it is critical to have a good understanding of the invasion dynamics and removal process to have reliable estimates of project timeline and success, and to ensure the best removal strategies are being utilised. In this paper we model cherry guava growth, spread and removal on Lord Howe Island, fitting our model to 12 years of removal data. Our mean estimate is that there are 102,091 plants remaining on the island, which will take approximately 25 years to remove at current levels of eradication effort. Altering the strategy to search every year, rather than biennially, reduces the eradication time to 20 years, which falls within the project target, while also decreasing the total search effort. However, simply increasing search effort to finish faster actually increases the total eradication effort. This shows that the benefits of making careful adjustments to a strategy can far out-weight the benefit of simply investing more money into control. This project exemplifies how high-quality removal record-keeping can be used to generate models that provide important long-term forecasts of project success and suggest effective strategic improvements.

Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-10T19:53:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2020-04-01 The global network of protected areas (PAs) is systematically biased towards remote and unproductive places. Consequently, the processes threatening biodiversity are not halted and conservation impact-defined as the beneficial environmental outcomes arising from protection relative to the counterfactual of no intervention-is smaller than previously thought. Yet, many conservation plans still target species' representation, which can fail to lead to impact by not considering the threats they face, such as land conversion and climate change. Here we aimed to identify spatial conservation priorities that minimize the risk of land conversion, while retaining sites with high value for threatened plants at risk from climate change in the Brazilian Cerrado. We compared a method of sequential implementation of conservation actions to a static strategy applied at one time-step. For both schedules of conservation actions, we applied two methods for setting priorities: (i) minimizing expected habitat conversion and prioritizing valuable sites for threatened plants (therefore maximizing conservation impact), and (ii) prioritizing sites based only on their value for threatened plants, regardless of their vulnerability to land conversion (therefore maximizing representation). We found that scenarios aimed at maximizing conservation impact reduced total vegetation loss, while still covering large proportions of species' ranges inside PAs and priority sites. Given that planning to avoid vegetation loss provided these benefits, vegetation information could represent a reliable surrogate for overall biodiversity. Besides allowing for the achievement of two distinct goals (representation and impact), the impact strategies also present great potential for implementation, especially under current conservation policies. Univ Fed Goias, Dept Ecol, Lab Biogeog Conservacao, Ave Esperanca S-N,Campus Samambaia, BR-74690900 Goiania, Go, Brazil Univ Fed Goias, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Evolucao, Goiania, Go, Brazil Int Inst Sustainabil, BR-22460320 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil Univ Fed Parana, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Conservacao, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil James Cook Univ, Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Australian Res Council, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia Univ Estadual Paulista, Inst Biociencias, Dept Bot, Lab Fenol, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Ctr Sensoriamento Remoto, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil Univ Fed Goias, Lab Macroecol, BR-75801615 Jatai, Go, Brazil Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazilian Res Network Climate Change Rede Clima, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil Univ Estadual Paulista, Inst Biociencias, Dept Bot, Lab Fenol, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil

A principal role of marine protected areas (MPAs) is to mitigate the decline of biodiversity. A key part of this role is to reduce the effects of fisheries on bycatch of vulnerable species. Bycatch can have an impact on species by reducing population sizes, and an ecosystem-level impact through the significant removal of biomass and subsequent trophic changes. In this regard, it is crucial to refine methods for quantifying interactions between fisheries and bycatch species, and to manage these interactions spatially. A new method is presented for quantifying interactions between fisheries and bycatch species at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Temporally explicit species distribution models are used to examine temporal dynamics of fisheries and bycatch. This method is applied to Australia's Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery to estimate interactions with seven principal bycatch species. The ability of MPAs to reduce bycatch is evaluated, and considerations are outlined for the spatial management of fishery-bycatch species interactions. Australia's Commonwealth Marine Reserve Network had a minimal impact on bycatch reduction under both the 2012 proclaimed and the 2015 panel-recommended zonings. These results highlight the need for threats to marine biodiversity to be incorporated directly into design of MPAs, and for close scrutiny of assumptions that threats will be incidentally abated after MPAs have been proclaimed, or that off-reserve mechanisms will compensate for inadequacies of MPAs.

Environmental managers regularly face decisions about how to counteract threats. These decisions require an understanding of both the conservation benefits and economic costs of candidate actions. However, transparent frameworks for how to accurately calculate costs for management are rare. We worked with island managers in Australia to develop eradication protocols for six invasive species- four mammals and two weeds. We used the protocols to create an accounting framework for invasive species eradications to produce realistic cost estimates for eradications across multiple locations. We also used our models to test common cost assumptions: (1) that costs scale linearly with area, (2) that terrain does not influence costs, and (3) that eradication costs stay constant through time. By explicating testing assumptions, we found that costs largely scaled linearly with area, that terrain influences costs, and that costs decline as populations decline in response to ongoing management. Estimated mammal eradication costs were driven in large part by the area of an island and the cost of transport. However, when area alone was used as a proxy for costs, the calculated costs deviated from our modelled costs by 40–56%. Weed eradication cost estimates were driven by the size and density of an infestation as well as the terrain of the island, with the effect of terrain becoming more pronounced as area to be treated increased. We provide a method to calculate realistic costs across several sites, which can be used to guide strategic management decision-making, including prioritisation, and on-ground management actions.

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) is a rapidly advancing discipline aimed at providing decision support for choices between alternate conservation actions. SCP is often used to inform choices about areas to protect, in order to optimize outcomes for biodiversity while minimizing societal costs. Despite the widespread application of SCP approaches, there is limited understanding of the types of impacts resulting from related projects, and when and where it is most effective. This is compounded by the absence of a standardized approach to evaluating and reporting on the outcomes of SCP projects. We highlight the challenges of undertaking evaluations of complex planning processes, the current state of knowledge about the outcomes of SCP projects, and emerging opportunities to improve evaluation. There is a need for clarity around theories of change, definitions of SCP and impact, and standardized reporting and information sharing across the discipline.

Aim Regional-scale assessments are frequently conceived to guide the strategic application of conservation actions. Although changes to priority areas from initial assessments are inevitable, the transition from regional-scale assessment to implementing local actions is poorly understood. An outstanding question concerns the frequency with which regionally assessed priorities should be updated as actions are implemented. We address this gap by simulating the incremental implementation of local actions guided by regional conservation assessments, exploring how update frequency can influence aspects of translating regional assessments to local actions. Location Fiji coral reefs. Methods Our simulations were designed within the framework of systematic conservation planning, with implemented actions simulated based on conservation value in achieving objectives and feature rarity. Other decision rule-sets were put in place to simulate on-the-ground negotiations that are often necessary when transitioning from regional-scale conservation assessments to local actions. We use our simulations to evaluate how the frequency of updating regional priorities influences (1) total time taken to achieve objectives represented by numbers of planning units investigated, (2) total extent of final reserve systems and (3) spatial overlap between initial regional priorities and final implemented reserves. Results Changes in the frequencies of updating did not influence the time taken to achieve conservation objectives, nor the total extent of final reserve systems. However, there was a significant difference in the number of times planning units were re-investigated for implementing actions within in scenarios that involved more frequent updates. Spatial overlap between initial regional priorities and final implemented reserves increased with decreases in update frequency. Main conclusions We find two potential benefits to updating priorities more frequently: (1) faster achievement of objectives for high-priority features and (2) greater potential to capitalize on areas previously investigated. Our findings provide insights into trade-offs to consider regarding the frequency of updating regional assessments, which varies depending on the planning context.

This paper highlights a disjunction between the basic motivation of conservation planners, policy-makers, and managers, which is to make a positive difference for biodiversity, and many of our day-to-day activities, which are tangential (at best) to the goal of avoiding biodiversity loss. At the core of this problem is the use of conservation measures (inputs, outputs, and outcomes) that do not explicitly address conservation impact, and thus risk undermining its achievement. These measures are used to formulate policy targets and operational objectives, gauge progress towards them, and identify priorities for action. In particular, the pervasive use of representation of biodiversity features as a sole basis for identifying priorities, and the considerable global effort directed towards increasing protected-area extent and assessing protected-area management effectiveness, exemplify that much conservation decision-making is founded more on belief systems than evidence. Measures such as the extent or representativeness of protected areas risk misdirecting conservation actions towards areas of low impact and misleading decision-makers and the public about conservation progress. To promote more effective, evidence-informed decision-making, analytical evidence can and should be used to test and refine decision-makers' implicit models of the world, focusing on predicting conservation impact - the future difference made by our future actions - to increase our effectiveness and accountability.

Climate change is driving shifts in social-ecological systems globally. In response, humans must adapt to altered climatic and environmental conditions. While climate change adaptation is a pressing issue in many sectors and regions, the adaptation of environmental management strategies is particularly urgent because of the severity and extent of risks associated with projected impacts. Robust adaptation of environmental management requires effective spatial and temporal implementation of interventions, with explicit consideration of trade-offs between different socio-economic and environmental objectives. We investigate the critical interface between regional governance systems and spatial planning for climate adaptation by exploring the case of Australia’s Natural Resource Management (NRM) bodies. Australia’s NRM bodies provide an ideal case study for two reasons. First, Australia faces significant threats from current and future climate changes. Second, Australian NRM bodies have recently undertaken a major program of spatial planning and research to explicitly address the need for climate adaptation. We explore the interface between regional governance systems and spatial planning by: 1) reviewing the historical development of institutional arrangements in relation to spatial planning by Australia’s regional NRM bodies; 2) documenting current planning processes with regard to climate adaptation and more generally; and 3) identifying strengths and weaknesses of the existing governance system at various scales with respect to its ability to foster effective spatial planning. We find that the institutional and resource capacity of the Australian regional NRM bodies is currently being eroded and that the national governance system is broadly failing to deliver on the intended outcomes of climate-ready NRM plans. We make recommendations for governance reform and institutional adaptation to improve spatial planning for climate adaptation in Australia and discuss the broader implications of our findings.

Notwithstanding a complex array of international, national, and local policies designed to protect biodiversity and manage human activities, the condition of Australia's Great Barrier Reef has been deteriorating. This trend indicates that policy settings are inadequate or the right policies have been prescribed but not effectively implemented. This study aimed to determine which policies influenced on-ground management of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area and Marine Park, how they were implemented, and the challenges encountered by practitioners in applying policies. The research required content analysis of policy instruments relevant to various jurisdictional levels, and surveys and interviews with 19 key informants across jurisdictions and agencies. This study found that policy intent is not automatically translated into practice: international agreements are interpreted and reinterpreted along the policy pathway to on-ground management and, consequently, the aspirations of these agreements can be frustrated and their effectiveness diluted. Due to limits of jurisdictional responsibility, practitioners within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority are constrained in influencing key factors that impact on their capacity to address threats and manage outcomes. The major policy gap affecting management outcomes was the absence of a mechanism with which to manage cumulative impacts responsible for deterioration of key ecosystem processes and biodiversity. These findings highlight that effective policy implementation is a challenging task, limited by gaps between intentions and outcomes, inconsistencies, and conflicting agendas. An improved understanding of the policy implementation process and the policy-practitioner relationship is essential to enhancing links between policy and on-ground management.

A growing number of studies suggest a participatory ecosystem approach to support decision-making towards resilience and sustainability in social-ecological systems. Social-ecological resilience (SER) principles and practices are recommended to manage natural crises. However, it is necessary to broaden our understanding of SER on human-induced disturbances driven by economic development projects. In this paper we present the social-ecological system of Araca Bay (Brazil), a small-scale fishery community that has experienced successive disturbances due to development projects since the 1930s. There was a lack of studies about the impacts of development projects in this bay. As part of a major project that aimed to build an ecosystem-based management plan for Araca Bay through a participatory planning process, we focused on investigating fishers’ traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) to understand Araca Bay’s small-scale fisheries social-ecological system. The objectives were to: (1) investigate fishers’ TEK regarding management practices and linked social mechanisms, human-induced disturbances and their consequences for the social-ecological system, ecosystem goods and services, and future threats; and (2) provide information based on TEK to the participatory planning process and analyze its contribution to Araca Bay’s ecosystem-based management plan. Combined methods were used during 3 years of intense research-action (2014-2017): in-depth ethno-oceanographic interviews with expert fishers; monitoring Araca Bay participatory meetings; and participant observation. Genuine local practices and social mechanisms from traditional culture were recorded, as well as TEK about 57 target fish species and methods to protect habitats and natural resources. Fishers also reported ecosystem disturbances and recovery processes. TEK was codified through SWOT analysis to assist the participatory planning process. Ecosystem services and threats based on TEK were brought to the participatory process, acknowledged by the participants, and incorporated into the management plan. TEK analysis proved to be an important methodology to provide historical environmental data regarding the impacts of development projects and support planning in disturbed ecosystems. In order to support coastal marine ecosystem-based management strategies towards SER and sustainability, researchers and practitioners should consider traditional territories in planning, recognize local practices and social mechanisms, and consider TEK on ecosystem goods and services and on historical human-induced disturbances.

Much of conservation planning has focused on how we should prioritize areas for protection based on biodiversity and cost, but less is known about how we should prioritize areas based upon the level of threat they face. We discuss two opposing threat prioritization strategies: frontier conservation (prioritizing high‐threat areas) and wilderness conservation (prioritizing low‐threat areas). Using a temporally explicit model, we demonstrate that the best strategy depends on a variety of factors, including protection costs, heterogeneity in biodiversity, biodiversity–area relationships, the rate of biodiversity recovery, the rate of change in threats through time, and the timeframe within which we measure conservation outcomes. By quantitatively comparing the impact of these strategies, we aim to shift the debate away from a simple dichotomy of frontier versus wilderness, toward an understanding of the context‐specific benefits of each option, and a discussion of how threat combines with other factors to determine spatial conservation priorities.

The state and trend of the Great Barrier Reef's (GBR's) ecological health remains problematic, influencing United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) statements regarding GBR governance. While UNESCO's concerns triggered separate strategic assessments by the Australian and Queensland governments, there has been no independent and integrated review of the key risks within the overall system of governance influencing GBR outcomes. As a case study of international significance, this paper applies Governance Systems Analysis (GSA), a novel analytical framework that identifies the governance themes, domains and subdomains most likely to influence environmental and socio-economic outcomes in complex natural systems. This GBR-focussed application of GSA identifies governance subdomains that present high, medium, or low risk of failure to produce positive outcomes for the Reef. This enabled us to determine that three "whole of system" governance problems could undermine GBR outcomes. First, we stress the integrative importance of the Long Term Sustainability Plan (LTSP) Subdomain. Sponsored by the Australian and Queensland governments, this subdomain concerns the primary institutional arrangements for coordinated GBR planning and delivery, but due to its recent emergence, it faces several internal governance challenges. Second, we find a major risk of implementation failure in the achievement of GBR water quality actions due to a lack of system-wide focus on building strong and stable delivery systems at catchment scale. Finally, we conclude that the LTSP Subdomain currently has too limited a mandate/capacity to influence several high-risk subdomains that have not been, but must be more strongly aligned with Reef management (e.g. the Greenhouse Gas Emission Management Subdomain). Our analysis enables exploration of governance system reforms needed to address environmental trends in the GBR and reflects on the potential application of GSA in other complex land and sea-scapes across the globe.

Conservation of biodiversity is an ongoing challenge. Governments face many constraints when pursuing conservation, one of the most pervasive being limited budgets for buying land for conservation. To achieve conservation goals, an alternative to acquisition is on-farm conservation. Research suggests that the success of on-farm conservation programs depends primarily on land managers’ behaviour. In the past, one of the tools used for on-farm conservation has been financial incentives but these may be ineffective if they do not align with the intrinsic motivations of land managers. Our paper seeks to learn more about the intrinsic motivations of land managers by learning more about what contributes to their overall quality of life (life satisfaction). We hypothesize that by understanding the drivers of land manager’s subjective assessments of their own life satisfaction we will be able to shed light on the types of incentives that could help promote on-farm conservation. Our analysis highlights tha...

Management of common-pool natural resources is commonly implemented under institutional models promoting devolved decision-making, such as co-management and community-based management. Although participation of local people is critical to the success of devolved commons management, few studies have empirically investigated how individuals’ participation is related to socioeconomic factors that operate at multiple scales. Here, we evaluated how individual- and community-scale factors were related to levels of individual participation in management of community-based marine protected areas in Indonesia. In addressing this aim, we drew on multiple bodies of literature on human behaviour from economics and social science, including the social-ecological systems framework from the literature on common-pool resources, the theory of planned behaviour from social psychology, and public goods games from behavioural economics. We found three key factors related to level of participation of local people: subjective norms, structural elements of social capital, and nested institutions. There was also suggestive evidence that participation was related to people’s cooperative behavioural disposition, which we elicited using a public goods game. These results point to the importance of considering socioeconomic factors that operate at multiple scales when examining individual behaviour. Further, our study highlights the need to consider multiscale mechanisms other than those designed to appeal to self-interested concerns, such as regulations and material incentives, which are typically employed in devolved commons management to encourage participation. Increased understanding of the factors related to participation could facilitate better targeting of investments aimed at encouraging cooperative management.

Environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts are key influences on ecological processes and associated ecosystem services. Effective management of Tonga’s marine ecosystems therefore depends on accurate and up-to-date knowledge of environmental and anthropogenic variables. Although many types of environmental and anthropogenic data are now available in global layers, they are often inaccessible to end users, particularly in developing countries with limited accessibility and analytical training. Furthermore, the resolution of many global layers might not be sufficient to make informed local decisions. Although the near-shore marine ecosystem of Tonga is extensive, the resources available for its management are limited, and little is known about its current ecological state. Here we provide a marine socio-environmental dataset covering Tonga’s near-shore marine ecosystem as compiled from various global layers, remote sensing projects, local ministries, and the 2016 national census. The dataset consists of 11 environmental and 6 anthropogenic variables summarised in ecologically relevant ways, spatially overlaid across the near-shore marine ecosystem of Tonga. The environmental variables selected include bathymetry, coral reef density, distance from deep water, distance from land, distance from major terrestrial inputs, habitat, land area, net primary productivity, salinity, sea surface temperature and wave energy. The anthropogenic variables selected include fishing pressure, management status, distance to fish markets, distance from villages, population pressure and a socioeconomic development index based on population density, growth, mean age, mean education level and unemployment. We hope this extensive and accessible dataset will be a useful tool for future assessment and management of marine ecosystems in Tonga.

Despite increasing threats to Tonga’s coral reefs from stressors that are both local (e.g. overfishing and pollution) and global (e.g. climate change), there is yet to be a systematic assessment of the status of the country’s coral reef ecosystem and reef fish fishery stocks. Here, we provide a national ecological assessment of Tonga’s coral reefs and reef fish fishery using ecological survey data from 375 sites throughout Tonga’s three main island groups (Ha’apai, Tongatapu and Vava’u), represented by seven key metrics of reef health and fish resource status. Boosted regression tree analysis was used to assess and describe the relative importance of 11 socio-environmental variables associated with these key metrics of reef condition. Mean live coral cover across Tonga was 18%, and showed a strong increase from north to south correlated with declining sea surface temperature, as well as with increasing distance from each provincial capital. Tongatapu, the southernmost island group, had 2.5 times greater coral cover than the northernmost group, Vava’u (24.9% and 10.4% respectively). Reef fish species richness and density were comparable throughout Tongatapu and the middle island group, Ha’apai (~35 species/transect and ~2500 fish/km2), but were significantly lower in Vava’u (~24 species/transect and ~1700 fish/km2). Spatial patterns in the reef fish assemblage were primarily influenced by habitat-associated variables (slope, structural complexity, and hard coral cover). The biomass of target reef fish was greatest in Ha’apai (~820 kg/ha) and lowest in Vava’u (~340 kg/ha), and was negatively associated with higher human influence and fishing activity. Overall mean reef fish biomass values suggest that Tonga’s reef fish fishery can be classified as moderately to heavily exploited, with 64% of sites having less than 500 kg/ha. This study provides critical baseline ecological information for Tonga’s coral reefs that will: (1) facilitate ongoing management and research; and (2) enable accurate reporting on conservation targets locally and internationally.

Impact evaluation aims to estimate the effect of an intervention on intended, and perhaps unintended, outcomes compared to the outcomes of no intervention or different intervention. Traditional impact evaluation methods used in environmental sciences tend to compare protected and control areas that differ in several characteristics, thereby hampering the attribution of causality such as lower rates of deforestation occurring as consequence of protection. To overcome this problem, counterfactual methods have been developed to improve impact evaluation in environmental sciences, including studies that aim to measure the effects of protected areas in avoiding deforestation. The goal of counterfactual methods is achieved by identification of carefully selected and comparable control areas. Here, we report on a systematic review to evaluate whether estimates about the effectiveness of protected area differ between traditional and counterfactual impact evaluation methods. We found that estimates from traditional methods of avoided deforestation due to the establishment of protected areas were generally higher than those from counterfactual methods. However, estimates based on traditional linear models and multivariate ordinations were similar to those obtained by counterfactual methods. Although rarely used, linear methods and ordinations appear promising as parts of the impact evaluation toolbox, although their limitations need to be better understood.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have the potential to support small-scale fishers in managing their resources. However, a general failure to consider the varying levels of vulnerability of fishers has resulted in MPAs that, often unintentionally, adversely impact small-scale fishers. Furthermore, when fishers lack the capacity to adapt to MPA-related changes, MPAs may fail to meet conservation objectives because fishers do not comply with MPA regulations. In this study, we developed a systematic method to identify individuals who are most vulnerable to being negatively impacted by no-take MPAs through an index that represents individual-level vulnerability. We designed a method for identifying these individuals based on four socioeconomic factors pertaining to vulnerability to MPA changes: livelihood diversity, education, age and wealth, then applied this method in two socially and economically heterogeneous communities in Myanmar's Myeik Archipelago. We used empirical data collected from 80 small-scale fishers in this area to represent each factor, then generated a local-level ‘Livelihood Impact Potential Index’ (LIPI) that reflects the degree to which a no-take MPA would impact an individual fisher's ability to support his or her livelihood. When attributed to each fisher's most frequented fishing ground, the LIPI can identify locations where no-take MPAs would be most detrimental to small-scale fishers' livelihoods based on their levels of vulnerability. The LIPI can thus be used alongside ecological and commercial fishing data to support planners in designing local-scale MPAs that maximise positive impact on biodiversity and minimise adverse impacts on the most vulnerable fishers in a community.

Problems of scale abound in the governance of complex social-ecological systems. Conservation governance, for example, typically occurs at a single scale, but needs to inform governance and action at other scales to be truly effective at achieving social and ecological outcomes. This process is conventionally conceived as unidirectional – either scaling down or scaling up – in the way it both exploits and creates the natural, social, human, institutional, and financial resources and benefits that are collectively known as conservation ‘capital’. Here we analyse multiscale conservation governance and the different types of capital that impede or facilitate its effectiveness. Comparative analysis of conservation planning in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, through in-depth document review, key informant interview, and participant observation, reveals limited evidence of unidirectional processes. Instead, we observe multidirectional scaling pathways, cultivated by the following six scale-explicit characteristics of effective conservation governance: 1) multiscale understanding, 2) scale jumping, 3) scaled leadership characteristics, 4) scaled stakeholder engagement, 5) scaled policy frameworks, and 6) scaled institutional settings. While the latter four are familiar concepts, though not always recognised as explicitly scalar, we know little about the first two attributes of conservation governance. Based on this novelty and relevance, we propose a new form of capital – ‘scalar capital’ – to complement natural, social, human, institutional, and financial capitals as both input and outcome of effective conservation governance. We find that scalar capital facilitates flows of different resources (data, conservation objectives, practitioner experience, institutional support, and funding) in multiple directions. Critically, we present empirical evidence that conservation governance can foster scalar capital to improve outcomes across multiple scales.

Each year, hundreds of conservation plans are developed to direct limited resources toward conservation in priority areas. Conservation plans are developed at different levels, defined here as points on a range of spatial extent varying from global to local. However, approaches to integrate plans effectively across levels remain elusive. To plan across multiple levels most effectively, the relative strengths and weaknesses of planning at different levels must be understood. Taking the Coral Triangle region of the western Pacific Ocean as a case study, we apply an adapted social-ecological system (SES) framework to assess the scalar coverage of conservation plans, i.e., the extent to which plans developed at one level adequately consider the social and ecological levels and components (i.e., resource units, resource systems, governance systems, actors) of an SES. No conservation plans we assessed had complete cross-level coverage. Plans most adequately addressed social and ecological components at the same level of planning and, to a lesser extent, lower levels. In line with previous literature suggesting that social factors are most relevant at local levels, we found that local-level plans engaged with the greatest number of stakeholder groups, whereas higher level plans more adequately addressed ecological components. Given that it appears more practicable for higher level plans to consider components at lower levels, the onus should fall on higher level planning to link to lower levels. Achieving complete cross-level coverage will require vertical interactions between planning processes at different levels, and conceiving of planning processes across all levels as connected planning systems. We demonstrate how an adapted SES framework can be used by conservation planners to assess the cross-level coverage of their own plans and to formulate appropriate conservation objectives to address social and ecological components at different levels.

The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.

The field of systematic conservation planning has grown substantially, with hundreds of publications in the peer-reviewed literature and numerous applications to regional conservation planning globally. However, the extent to which systematic conservation plans have influenced management is unclear. This paper analyses factors that facilitate the transition from assessment to implementation in conservation planning, in order to help integrate assessment and implementation into a seamless process. We propose a framework for designing implementation strategies, taking into account three critical planning aspects: processes, inputs, and context. Our review identified sixteen processes, which we broadly grouped into four themes and eight inputs. We illustrate how the framework can be used to inform context-dependent implementation strategies, using the process of ‘engagement’ as an example. The example application includes both lessons learned from successfully implemented plans across the engagement spectrum, and highlights key barriers that can hinder attempts to bridge the assessment-implementation gap. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-018-1067-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Systematic conservation planning is a discipline concerned with the prioritisation of resources for biodiversity conservation and is often used in the design or assessment of terrestrial and marine protected area networks. Despite being an evidence-based discipline, to date there has been no comprehensive review of the outcomes of systematic conservation plans and assessments of the relative effectiveness of applications in different contexts. To address this fundamental gap in knowledge, our primary research question was: what is the extent, distribution and robustness of evidence on conservation outcomes of systematic conservation planning around the globe? Methods A systematic mapping exercise was undertaken using standardised search terms across 29 sources, including publication databases, online repositories and a wide range of grey literature sources. The review team screened articles recursively, first by title only, then abstract and finally by full-text, using inclusion criteria related to systematic conservation plans conducted at sub-global scales and reported on since 1983. We sought studies that reported outcomes relating to natural, human, social, financial or institutional outcomes and which employed robust evaluation study designs. The following information was extracted from included studies: bibliographic details, background information including location of study and broad objectives of the plan, study design, reported outcomes and context. Results Of the approximately 10,000 unique articles returned through our searches, 1209 were included for full-text screening and 43 studies reported outcomes of conservation planning interventions. However, only three studies involved the use of evaluation study designs which are suitably rigorous for inclusion, according to best-practice guidelines. The three included studies were undertaken in the Gulf of California (Mexico), Réunion Island, and The Nature Conservancy’s landholdings across the USA. The studies varied widely in context, purpose and outcomes. Study designs were non-experimental or qualitative, and involved use of spatial landholdings over time, stakeholder surveys and modelling of alternative planning scenarios. Conclusion Rigorous evaluations of systematic conservation plans are currently not published in academic journals or made publicly available elsewhere. Despite frequent claims relating to positive implications and outcomes of these planning activities, we show that evaluations are probably rarely conducted. This finding does not imply systematic conservation planning is not effective but highlights a significant gap in our understanding of how, when and why it may or may not be effective. Our results also corroborate claims that the literature on systematic conservation planning is dominated by methodological studies, rather than those that focus on implementation and outcomes, and support the case that this is a problematic imbalance in the literature. We emphasise the need for academics and practitioners to publish the outcomes of systematic conservation planning exercises and to consider employing robust evaluation methodologies when reporting project outcomes. Adequate reporting of outcomes will in turn enable transparency and accountability between institutions and funding bodies as well as improving the science and practice of conservation planning.

On 2 October 2011, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) declared the world's largest shark sanctuary, adding 1,990,530 km2 to the rapidly expanding shark sanctuary movement. News outlets praised the policy, citing its widespread local support and protection laws, the strongest to date ([ 1 ][1

In March 2018, Brazil's government announced two sets of large marine protected areas (MPAs) in the open ocean (about 400,000 km2 each). According to the government's ambitious plan ([ 1 ][1]), the total coverage of MPAs under Brazilian national jurisdiction will rise sharply from 1.5 to 25%, in

Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal development, mining, aquaculture, shipping, and global warming). We calculated an index of the risk to cumulative impacts: (i) assuming uniform sensitivity of coral reefs to stressors; and (ii) using impact weights to reflect varying tolerance levels of coral reefs to each stressor. We also predicted the index in both the presence and absence of global warming. We found that 16% and 37% of coral reefs had high to very high risk of cumulative impacts, without and with information on sensitivity respectively, and 42% of reefs had low risk to cumulative impacts from both local and global stressors. Our outputs are the first comprehensive spatial dataset of cumulative impact on coral reefs in Brazil, and show that areas requiring attention mostly corresponded to those closer to population centres. We demonstrate how the relationships between risks from local and global stressors can be used to derive strategic management actions.

Protected areas have been established historically in residual places where the potential for extractive uses is low, implying that places at risk are usually under-protected. Argentina is no exception, with few protected areas established in productive regions that are prone to conversion. Here, using reptiles as a study group and considering the most important human threats in north-western Argentina, we estimated priority conservation areas where we expect species to persist in the face of climate change and land conversion. Protected areas cover no more than 9% of the study region, but represent less than 15% of reptile distributions. There are great opportunities for improving the conservation status in the region by protecting only 8% more of north-western Argentina, with the level of species protection inside the protected area network increasing almost four-fold, reaching 43% of species distributions on average and 59% of the distributions of threatened reptiles. Fortunately, the highest diversity of reptiles in the region does not match the places targeted for agriculture expansion. Our findings suggest that future prioritization schemes should embrace other groups that are especially diverse in the Chaco ecoregion, which overlaps with our study area. Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina Fil: Leynaud, Gerardo Cristhian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina Fil: Volante, José Norberto. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; Argentina Fil: Abdala, Cristian Simón. Fundación Miguel Lillo; Argentina Fil: Scrocchi Manfrini, Gustavo Jose. Fundación Miguel Lillo; Argentina Fil: Rodríguez-Soto, Clarita. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México Fil: Pressey, Robert L.. James Cook University; Australia Fil: Loyola, Rafael. Universidade Federal de Goias. Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas; Brasil

Instantaneous implementation of systematic conservation plans at regional scales is rare. More typically, planned actions are applied incrementally over periods of years or decades. During protracted implementation, the character of the connected ecological system will change as a function of external anthropogenic pressures, local metapopulation processes, and environmental fluctuations. For heavily exploited systems, habitat quality will deteriorate as the plan is implemented, potentially influencing the schedule of protected area implementation necessary to achieve conservation objectives. Understanding the best strategy to adopt for applying management within a connected environment is desirable, especially given limited conservation resources. Here, we model the sequential application of no‐take marine protected areas (MPAs) in the central Philippines within a metapopulation framework, using a range of network‐based decision rules. The model was based on selecting 33 sites for protection from 101 possible sites over a 35‐yr period. The graph‐theoretic network criteria to select sites for protection included PageRank, maximum degree, closeness centrality, betweenness centrality, minimum degree, random, and historical events. We also included a dynamic strategy called colonization–extinction rate that was updated every year based on the changing capacity of each site to produce and absorb larvae. Each rule was evaluated in the context of achieving the maximum metapopulation mean lifetime at the conclusion of the implementation phase. MPAs were designated through the alteration of the extinction risk parameter. The highest ranked criteria were PageRank while the actual implementation from historical records ranked lowest. Our results indicate that protecting the sites ranked highest with regard to larval supply is likely to yield the highest benefit for fish abundance and fish metapopulation persistence. Model results highlighted the benefits of including network processes in conservation planning. Copyright by the Ecological Society of America

The unique values of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are under threat from environmental change and the unforeseen, cumulative consequences of coastal development. Development decisions are underpinned by Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) but these are plagued by inconsistent methods and a lack of independent evaluation, leading to perceptions of inadequate scientific rigor. To be credible and effective, EIAs should be subject to independent peer review, the yardstick applied in the normal process of science. Without it, decisions based on EIA are at best contestable and potentially invalid. Peer review should be applied to the whole EIA process from project development to reporting and auditing approval requirements. It should be based on rigorous, standard protocols, and produce standardized and publicly available data. Securing the future of the GBR and other global natural assets requires refocusing EIA so it becomes a tool for strategic environmental protection rather than ad hoc permitting of development.

In the Philippines, networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are more complex than individual MPAs, primarily due to involvement of multiple governance units. Hence, there is a need to understand the influence of governance context of networks on management performance. We addressed this need indirectly by evaluating the participation of network members and the governance capacity of three MPA networks with varying sizes, histories, and compositions of local governments and constituencies. We defined participation as the involvement of local governments and other stakeholders in decision-making processes. We defined governance capacity as the ability to govern interactions of social, economic, and political processes and dynamics in a political unit. We used qualitative, semi-structured key informant interviews and focus group discussions to ascertain whether participation and governance capacity are influenced by network size, institutional arrangements, and social and political contexts. We found that the sizes of the MPA networks did not affect participation and governance capacity. Instead, participation and capacity were influenced by institutional arrangements and the socioeconomic and political contexts of the local governments involved. We found that less complicated network objectives and systems for engagement, more inclusive membership, better communication, incentive systems, and strong leadership enhanced participation and governance capacity.

The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia, covers over 348,000 km 2 of tropical marine ecosystems of global significance. In July 2015, the World Heritage Committee called attention to the cumulative impacts of climate change, poor water quality, and coastal development on the region's outstanding universal value, but stopped short of inscribing the Great Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger. Restoring the region's values is hindered by an environmental decision-making process that fails to incorporate cumulative impacts, including the climate change impacts of greenhouse gas emissions sourced from one of Australia's largest exports, thermal coal. We identify policy and processes that enable a more comprehensive consideration of the cumulative effects of coal mining by environmental decision-makers. Implementing cumulative impact assessment requires a collaborative and transparent program of planning and monitoring independent of Government and mine proponents that evaluates local, regional, and global impacts. The future of the Great Barrier Reef depends on transformational change in the cumulative assessment of Australian coal mines.

Spatially explicit information on species distributions for conservation planning is invariably incomplete; therefore, the use of surrogates is required to represent broad-scale patterns of biodiversity. Despite significant interest in the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting spatial distributions of biodiversity, few researchers have explored questions involving the ability of surrogates to incidentally represent unknown features of conservation interest. We used the Great Barrier Reef marine reserve network to examine factors affecting incidental representation of conservation features that were unknown at the time the reserve network was established. We used spatially explicit information on the distribution of 39 seabed habitats and biological assemblages and the conservation planning software Marxan to examine how incidental representation was affected by the spatial characteristics of the features; the conservation objectives (the minimum proportion of each feature included in no-take areas); the spatial configuration of no-take areas; and the opportunity cost of conservation. Cost was closely and inversely correlated to incidental representation. However, incidental representation was achieved, even in a region with only coarse-scale environmental data, by adopting a precautionary approach that explicitly considered the potential for unknown features. Our results indicate that incidental representation is enhanced by partitioning selection units along biophysical gradients to account for unknown within-feature variability and ensuring that no-take areas are well distributed throughout the region; by setting high conservation objectives that (in this case >33%) maximize the chances of capturing unknown features incidentally; and by carefully considering the designation of cost to planning units when using decision-support tools for reserve design. The lessons learned from incidental representation in the Great Barrier Reef have implications for conservation planning in other regions, particularly those that lack detailed environmental and ecological data.

Incorporating connectivity into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) has met with conceptual, theoretical, and practical challenges, which include: 1) the need to consider connectivity for multiple species with different dispersal abilities, and 2) the role played by variable habitat quality in determining the spatial patterns of connectivity. We propose an innovative approach, combining biophysical modeling with a routinely-used tool for marine-reserve design (Marxan), to address both challenges by using ecologically-informed connectivity parameters. We showed how functional demographic connectivity for four candidate reef-associated species with varying dispersal abilities and a suite of connectivity metrics weighted by habitat quality can be used to set conservation objectives and inform MPA placement. Overall, the strength of dispersal barriers varied across modeled species and, also across species, we found a lack of spatial concordance of reefs that were high-quality sources, self-persistent, and stepping-stones. Including spatially-heterogeneous habitat quality made a considerable difference to connectivity patterns, significantly reducing the potential reproductive output from many reefs. We also found that caution is needed in combining connectivity data from modeled species into multi-species matrices, which do not perform reliably as surrogates for all connectivity metrics of individual species. We then showed that restricting the habitat available for conservation has an inequitable impact on different connectivity objectives and species, with greatest impact on betweenness centrality and long-distance dispersers. We used Brazilian coral reefs as a case study but our approach is applicable to both marine and terrestrial conservation planning, and offers a holistic way to design functionally-connected reserves to tackle the complex issues relevant to planning for persistence.

Spatial management of the highly dynamic pelagic realm, and the highly mobile species it supports, requires dynamic processes to be incorporated into reserve design. To achieve this, planners need information on how these processes vary across space and time, and how this variation relates to species of conservation interest. This study presents a new method of quantifying variability that captures both between- and within-year changes in variables of interest. We applied this method to remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a in the Coral Sea to find five distinct regimes of variation that serve as surrogates for assemblages of species of conservation interest. We performed a gap analysis to determine protection of the regimes both internationally and nationally within Australia's network of marine reserves in the Coral Sea. We also identified key areas for protection within each regime, in terms of chlorophyll-a variability and species associations, and examined their protection status. Depending on conservation objectives, reserve systems that span multiple national jurisdictions and a rezoning of Australian national waters might be necessary to meet protection requirements for the regimes and for key areas within them. The current suspension and review of the Coral Sea Commonwealth Marine Reserve management plans and the recent proclamation of New Caledonia's as yet unzoned Coral Sea Nature Park offer planners an opportunity to incorporate dynamic processes into conservation planning for the Coral Sea. The method we present can be applied at other locations for time-series of any variable/s of interest, aiding the spatial management of dynamic features in both marine and terrestrial contexts.

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18–35% while extinction risk increases for 8–23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are among the most widely accepted methods of marine management. MPAs are not, however, always placed such that they can maximize impact on conservation and livelihoods. Current MPA guidelines fall short in focusing primarily on biophysical criteria, overlooking interrelated socioeconomic factors. We identified 32 socioeconomic factors that influence whether MPA placement has an impact on biodiversity and/or livelihoods and weighted the quality of evidence using a novel “Evidence for Impact” Score. Results suggest that stakeholder engagement, poverty, population density, and strong leadership have most potential to positively impact biodiversity and/or livelihoods, but the direction of impact (i.e., positive or negative) can be context-dependent. We found a generally poor evidence base for impact evaluation of socioeconomic factors: though some factors were highly cited, few studies actually evaluate impact. Results indicate the need for a more interdisciplinary approach to MPA placement and more empirical studies that assess impact.

Decision-makers focus on representing biodiversity pattern, maintaining connectivity, and strengthening resilience to global warming when designing marine protected area (MPA) systems, especially in coral reef ecosystems. The achievement of these broad conservation objectives will likely require large areas, and stretch limited funds for MPA implementation. We undertook a spatial prioritisation of Brazilian coral reefs that considered two types of conservation zones (i.e. no-take and multiple use areas) and integrated multiple conservation objectives into MPA planning, while assessing the potential impact of different sets of objectives on implementation costs. We devised objectives for biodiversity, connectivity, and resilience to global warming, determined the extent to which existing MPAs achieved them, and designed complementary zoning to achieve all objectives combined in expanded MPA systems. In doing so, we explored interactions between different sets of objectives, determined whether refinements to the existing spatial arrangement of MPAs were necessary, and tested the utility of existing MPAs by comparing their cost effectiveness with an MPA system designed from scratch. We found that MPAs in Brazil protect some aspects of coral reef biodiversity pattern (e.g. threatened fauna and ecosystem types) more effectively than connectivity or resilience to global warming. Expanding the existing MPA system was as cost-effective as designing one from scratch only when multiple objectives were considered and management costs were accounted for. Our approach provides a comprehensive assessment of the benefits of integrating multiple objectives in the initial stages of conservation planning, and yields insights for planners of MPAs tackling multiple objectives in other regions.

Action to achieve biodiversity conservation is usually expensive, and resources are limited relative to conservation goals. Prioritizing management investment therefore is essential if important goals are to be achieved. New software, the "IslandsDSS," has been developed to prioritize the mix of management actions that will optimally mitigate biodiversity loss. Here, we present novel temporally dynamic models of species population growth, interaction, and management efficacy that have been incorporated into the software. We have analyzed the sensitivity of these models to uncertainty in four parameters: maximum rate of population growth (r(max)), coefficient of species interaction (alpha(ij)), quantity of food resources required to maintain species equilibrium (J(i)), and the coefficient of management efficacy (theta(i)). We focused on the projected abundance of species by simulating interactions among one to four species, both invasive and native, on a hypothetical arid-tropical island that is 1000 ha in size and consists of five evenly distributed habitat types. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant variation in species abundance due to uncertainty in rmax (coefficient = 51.34; P < 0.001) and alpha(ij) (N-i = -16.48; P = 0.43; N-j = -2.33(2); P = 2.00(-16)), a significant but potentially stabilizing effect of modeling multiple species simultaneously (coefficient = -65.80; P = 2.00(-16)), and mirroring by species response trajectories of threat mitigation trajectories. There are several benefits of using temporally dynamic models of species responses to threat mitigation in systematic conservation planning including increased accuracy in estimates of the cost of management; locally relevant understanding of lag-times between threat establishment and unacceptable impacts on valued species; understanding of threat abundance and required intensity of control for biodiversity features to persist; site-and species-specific understanding of time to eradication and threat recovery when management is interrupted; and an improved understanding of the opportunity cost, in terms of threat levels and responses of native species, for islands not selected for management. Our models and associated software are based on decades of ecological research, potentially useful in a wide range of situations, including islands, the mainland, and marine regions, and we suggest that they provide managers with novel and powerful tools to efficiently prioritize conservation actions via the new systematic conservation planning software, " Islands DSS."