1. Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent
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Svetlana Igosheva, Natalia Belyaeva, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Aleksey Tomilin, Yuri Buyvolov, Tatiana Akimova, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Irina Kozyr, Olga Rozhkova, Olga Ermakova, Yurij Tyukh, Evgeniy A. Davydov, Ozodbek Abduraimov, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Mykhailo Motruk, Elena B. Pospelova, Natalia Korotkikh, Vladislav Timoshkin, Rustam Sibgatullin, Irina Fedchenko, Dmitrij Golovcov, Andrey S. Kuznetsov, Irina Nesterova, Tatyana Zubina, Galina Sokolova, Yuri Bykov, Miroslav Babushkin, Tomas Roslin, Helen Korolyova, Elena Smirnova, Sergei Stepanov, S. Sazonov, Evgeniy Meyke, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Sergey Kossenko, Darya Kiseleva, Vasyl Shevchyk, Alexander Hritankov, Elena Sitnikova, Oleg Bakin, Tatyana Gordeeva, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Irina Gaydysh, Margarita Kupriyanova, Coong Lo, Yuliia Kulsha, Vladimir Van, Elena Bochkareva, Mirabdulla Turgunov, Tatiana Filatova, Marina Yakovleva, Lilija Sultangareeva, Fedor Kazansky, P. D. Lebedev, Irina Megalinskaja, Akynaly Dubanaev, Elena Chakhireva, Elena Diadicheva, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Juri Kurhinen, Tamara Nezdoliy, Maria Hällfors, Maxim Antipin, Alla Kozurak, Kirill Litvinov, Nicolay Zelenetskiy, Leonid Kolpashikov, Ksenia Shalaeva, Elena Andreeva, Vladimir Yakovlev, Ludmila Gromyko, Miroslava Sahnevich, Tatiana Polyanskaya, Viktor Mamontov, Valeri Sanko, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Tatiana Tertitsa, Andrey Zahvatov, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Anatoly Bobretsov, Oleg Mitrofanov, Elena Shujskaja, Aleksandr Ananin, Viktor Teplov, Valentina Teplova, Alexander Sukhov, Vladimir Hohryakov, Natalya Ivanova, Nadezhda Kutenkova, Yury Kalinkin, Gleb Tikhonov, Lidiya Makovkina, Lidia Epova, Alexey Pavlov, Anatolii Zheltukhin, Uliya Ivanova, María del Mar Delgado, Aleksandr Myslenkov, Evgeniya Bukharova, Guzalya Suleymanova, Gennady Bogdanov, Natalia Luzhkova, Irina Rybnikova, Nadezhda Goncharova, Nikolay Volodchenkov, Nataliya Skok, Yuri Rozhkov, Viktorija Teleganova, Aleksandr Minin, Vladimir Bobrov, Zoya Drozdova, Nina Belova, Irina Prokosheva, Svetlana Babina, Lidia Vetchinnikova, Svetlana Mayorova, Artur Meydus, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Violetta Strekalovskaya, Yurij Yarema, Ilya Prokhorov, Elena Ignatenko, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Tatyana Niroda, Vitalіy Stratiy, Valery Zakharov, Olga Chashchina, Oleg Evstigneev, Sergey Elsukov, Maksim Shashkov, Evgenii Korobov, Sergej Shubin, Ivan Putrashyk, Darya Panicheva, Klara Pavlova, Anatoliy Kutenkov, Ludmila Tselishcheva, Elena Ershkova, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Dmitry Tirski, Laura H. Antão, Vladimir Sopin, Olga Kuberskaya, Svetlana Skorokhodova, Svetlana Drovnina, Vladislav Vinogradov, Natalia Andriychuk, Sergey Kruglikov, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Anatoliy Vekliuk, Olga S Ermakova, Aleksandra Vasina, Anna Barabancova, Muzhigit Akkiev, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Andrei Sivkov, Otso Ovaskainen, Polina Van, Azizbek Mahmudov, Anastasia A. Knorre, Julia Raiskaya, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Inna Basilskaja, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Anatoliy Shcherbakov, Vladimir Bolshakov, Alexander Samoylov, Igor N. Pospelov, Sergej Chistjakov, Viktor Demchenko, Natalia Nemtseva, Sergei Podolski, Alena Butunina, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Tatiana Novikova, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Andrej Tolmachev, Oksana Yantser, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Lyudmila Puchnina, Sergey Gashev, Natalia Sikkila, Violetta Fedotova, Zoya Selyunina, Evgeniy Larin, Inna Voloshina, Marina Rudenko, Elena Kulebyakina, Natalja Polikarpova, Aleksander Vasin, Yurii Spasovski, Olga Adrianova, Vitaly Grishchenko, Konstantin Arzamascev, Eliezer Gurarie, Svetlana Rykova, Elena E. Gorbunova, Nina Nasonova, Inna Sapelnikova, Marina Abadonova, Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Anna Buyvolova, Tatjana Bespalova, Tura Xoliqov, University of Helsinki, Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biosciences, Spatial Foodweb Ecology Group, Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Plant Adaptation and Conservation, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), Unit of Biodiversity Informatics, Otso Ovaskainen / Principal Investigator, Academy of Finland, European Commission, Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation, Research Council of Norway, Kone Foundation, and Russian Academy of Sciences
- Subjects
IMPACTS ,1171 Geosciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,AUTUMN ,SEASON ,Climate change ,Ecosystem integrity ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,01 natural sciences ,Latitude ,03 medical and health sciences ,Community ecology ,skin and connective tissue diseases ,1172 Environmental sciences ,030304 developmental biology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Trophic level ,Abiotic component ,0303 health sciences ,CLIMATE-CHANGE ,Ecology ,Phenology ,FLOWERING PHENOLOGY ,COMMUNITY ,VARIABILITY ,Geography ,Taxon ,Habitat ,13. Climate action ,TROPHIC LEVELS ,sense organs ,MARINE ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) ,RESPONSES - Abstract
Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes., The work was financially supported by the Academy of Finland, grants 250243 (O.O.), 284601 (O.O.), 309581 (O.O.); the European Research Council, ERC Starting Grant 205905 (O.O.) and Synergy Grant 856506 – LIFEPLAN (to O.O. and T.R.); Nordic Environment Finance Corporation Grant (O.O.); Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation Grant (O.O., T.R., M.H., L.A.); University of Helsinki HiLIFE Fellow Grant 2017–2020 (O.O.); and the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence Funding Scheme (223257) to O.O. via Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics; the Kone Foundation 44-6977 (M.D.) and 55-14839 (G.T.); a Spanish Ramon y Cajal grant RYC-2014-16263 (M.D.); the Federal Budget for the Forest Research Institute of Karelian Research Centre Russian Academy of Sciences 220-2017-0003, 0220-2017-0005 (L.V., S.S. and J.K.); the Russian Foundation for Basic Research Grant 16-08-00510 (L.K.), and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation 0017-2019-0009 (Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences) (N.I., M. Shashkov).
- Published
- 2021
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