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Climate change and human activities influence the development of ecosystems, with human demand of ecosystem services altering both land use and land cover. Fossil pollen records provide time series of vegetation characteristics, and the aim of this study was to create spatially continuous reconstructions of land cover through the Holocene in southern Sweden. The Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) was applied to obtain quantitative reconstructions of pollen-based vegetation cover at local scales, accounting for pollen production, dispersal, and deposition mechanisms. Pollen-based local vegetation estimates were produced from 41 fossil pollen records available for the region. A comparison of 17 interpolation methods was made and evaluated by comparing with current land cover. Simple kriging with cokriging using elevation was selected to interpolate the local characteristics of past land cover, to generate more detailed reconstructions of trends and degree of variability in time and space than previous studies based on pollen data representing the regional scale. Since the Mesolithic, two main processes have acted to reshape the land cover of southern Sweden, originally mostly covered by broad-leaved forests. The natural distribution limit of coniferous forest has moved southward during periods with colder climate and retracted northward during warmer periods, and human expansion in the area and agrotechnological developments has led to a gradually more open landscape, reaching maximum openness at the beginning of the 20th century. The recent intensification of agriculture has led to abandonment of less fertile agricultural fields and afforestation with conifer forest.

In late summer-early autumn, trees undergo growth cessation culminating in bud set. For a wide range of plants, including Populus, photoperiod is considered as the primary environmental cue determining timing of growth cessation and shoot to bud transition. However, studies on Populus have revealed temperature influence on seasonal growth cessation and bud set. In this study we examine the role of temperature in regulating the transition between phenological stages of bud development, from a growing apex to a closed bud. We test different model structures incorporating cues from both temperature and photoperiod (M1 and M2) as compared to the previously established model based on photoperiod only (M0, null hypothesis). All models simulate the date of bud set for Populus trees from 12 latitudinal populations grown in the common garden of Savar. For two of the three years (2005 and 2007) M1 and M2 models outperformed the null model in predicting bud set date. Poor predictions for 2006 were related to stressful weather conditions. This indicates that under non-stressful conditions temperature can be a factor modifying the photoperiod response, while other regulatory mechanisms can be at play during stressful conditions. A phenological model of bud development has to account for both types of responses. Thus, our study highlights the importance of temperature as a factor that should be considered in addition to the well-established photoperiodic signal in studies on autumnal bud set under natural conditions.

Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (>50 degrees N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30dayyear(-1). The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47day degrees C-1 to spring warming, and 0.18daycm(-1) to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66day degrees C-1 by winter warming and 0.56day degrees C-1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.

A 6–9 month backward time shift of the carbon uptake gave the highest correlation between annual biomass increment and carbon uptake in this old even aged forest. Plants’ carbon uptake and allocation to different biomass compartments is an important process for both wood production and climate mitigation. Measurements of the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere provide insights into the processes of photosynthesis, respiration and accumulation of carbon over time, and the increase in woody biomass can be assessed by allometric functions based on stem diameter measurements. The fraction of carbon allocated to radial stem growth varies over time, and a lag between carbon uptake and growth can be expected. The dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates and autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are key mechanisms for understanding this lag effect. In this study, a 9-year record of carbon flux and tree-ring data from Norunda, Sweden was used to investigate the relationship between net and gross carbon uptake and carbon allocated to growth. The flux data were aggregated to monthly sums. When full 12-month periods of accumulated carbon exchange were successively shifted backwards in time, the highest correlation was found with a 6–9 month shift, showing that a large part of the previous growing season was important for explaining the biomass increment of the following year.

In 2018, up to 4 million m3 Norway spruce was killed by the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus in Sweden. The event was unique for Sweden, in terms of both affected volume and the fact that it was triggered by severe drought stress, not by ample availability of relatively defenseless storm-felled trees. The outbreak continued in 2019 and 2020, each year with twice as many trees killed as in 2018. The aim of this study was to quantify seasonal variation and potential lag-effects in tree defense capacity the year after a severe drought stress. Inoculation with a bark beetle-associated bluestain fungus, repeated four times with one-month-intervals between May and August 2019, were carried out at three field sites with spruce provenances of Swedish and East European origin representing early and late bud burst, respectively. All sites had experienced moderate to severe drought stress in 2018, and site-specific defense capacity correlated positively with the cumulative precipitation two months before inoculation. Sites with two-month precipitation levels

Forestry is raising concern about the outbreaks of European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, causing extensive damage to the spruce forest and timber values. Precise monitoring of these beetles is a necessary step towards preventing outbreaks. Current commercial monitoring methods are catch-based and lack in both temporal and spatial resolution. In this work, light scattering from beetles is characterized, and the feasibility of entomological lidar as a tool for long-term monitoring of bark beetles is explored. Laboratory optical properties, wing thickness, and wingbeat frequency of bark beetles are reported, and these parameters can infer target identity in lidar data. Lidar results from a Swedish forest with controlled bark beetle release event are presented. The capability of lidar to simultaneously monitor both insects and a pheromone plume mixed with chemical smoke governing the dispersal of many insects is demonstrated. In conclusion, entomological lidar is a promising tool for monitoring bark beetles.

Climate change can lead to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, which may induce a decline in tree vitality, rendering the forest more vulnerable to other stress factors. In this study we used the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS to compare the NPP of boreal conifers on till soil and sandy soil, simulating the growth of Norway spruce during the 21st century using climate model projections corresponding to RCP 8.5. Model runs with and without nitrogen cycling enabled, in combination with two different approaches to implement the dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) were compared. The simulations showed that the forest productivity in Sweden is influenced by an interplay between site-specific temperature conditions and precipitation. Local differences in soil conditions can have an impact on the productivity, mediated by soil water and nutrient content. A warmer climate will lead to a longer growing season, but the productivity increase will partly be offset by a higher frequency of drought stress in summer and higher autotrophic respiration in winter. The ecosystem model runs indicated that periods with drought stress can cause low NSC levels, leading to time periods with decreased defence capacity against attacks by secondary agents such as bark beetles. The risks may however not become apparent until the forest stands are middle-aged. The model results are discussed in relation to current forestry practice, with Norway spruce (Picea abies) commonly being planted on dry soils better suited for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in order to reduce moose browsing damage of seedlings, which in the longer term may create a forest landscape more sensitive to spruce bark beetle attacks.

In 2010, the first, and so far only, infestation of the Hungarian spruce scale (Physokermes inopinatus) and accompanying sooty mould occurred in Scania, southernmost Sweden. About 1000 ha of Norway spruce (Picea abies) were affected, and the trees suffered from the sucking of the insects as well as from the dense sooty mould that covered the needles. Salvage cuttings were carried out in many of the massively attacked forest stands, both in response to the fear that the trees otherwise would die, e.g. from secondary bark beetle attacks and to prevent spreading of the infestation. The aim of this study was to provide basic, quantitative knowledge on the aftermath response of trees that were heavily infested, but not exposed to salvage cutting. Growth characteristics, in terms of needle weight, shoot length and tree-ring size were measured on infested and uninfested trees to compare and contrast the spruce growth before, during and after the scale outbreak. The infestation resulted in dwarf annual sh...

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051–2080 than in 1971–2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.

Weather and climate conditions can have large impacts on the outcome of forest management operations: Suboptimal conditions can increase the amount of driving damage to forest ground caused by the heavy machines used for harvesting, forwarding and soil scarification. Planting of tree seedlings is commonly practised after clear cutting, and drought in summer or soil frost uplifting in autumn reduces the likelihood of successful plant establishment. Weather and climate also influence the risk of forest fires and the occurrence and development of pest and pathogens, and thereby the timing suitable for surveillance and countermeasures. In this study, the potential use of seasonal forecasts to support the operational planning of forest management in northern Europe was assessed. The analysis was based on temperature and precipitation data from WFDEI System 4 with 15 ensemble members representing seasonal hindcasts (retrospective predictions) for the period of 1981–2010. The data was used directly and as input to a soil model from which monthly indices of frozen soil and plant water stress were calculated. Relatively low skills were found for most months, and in particular for longer lead times. Highest skill was found for bias corrected temperature of January to March, with one month lead time. The skill was higher for the soil model indices, in particular those related to soil frost, as they are influenced by cumulative processes and the initial model conditions contribute to the skill. Probabilistic forecasts on frozen soil can thus be valuable for planning of which areas to harvest, taking the risk of driving damage to forest soils and forest roads into account.

Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land surface phenology is frequently derived from remotely sensed data. However, over regions with seasonal snow cover, remotely-sensed land surface phenology may be dominated by snow seasonality, rather than showing true plant phenology. Overlooking snow influences may lead to inaccurate plant phenology estimation, and consequently to misinterpretation of climate-vegetation interactions. To address the problem we apply the recently developed plant phenology index (PPI) to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for estimating plant phenology metrics over northern Europe. We compare PPI-derived start and end of the growing season with ground observations by professionals (6 sites) and nonprofessional citizens (378 sites), with phenology metrics derived from gross primary productivity (GPP, 18 sites), and with data on the timing of snow cover. These data are also compared with land surface phenology metrics derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using the same MODIS data. We find that the PPI-retrieved plant phenology agrees with ground observations and GPP-derived phenology, and that the NDVI-derived phenology to a large extent agrees with the end-of-snowmelt for the start-of-season and the start-of-snowing for the end-of-season. PPI is thereby useful for more accurate estimation of plant phenology from remotely sensed data over northern Europe and other regions with seasonal snow cover.

The challenge of multi-use forestry is to fulfil a range of economic, ecologic and social goals in a sustainable way, accounting for synergies and trade-offs among the ecosystem services provided. Climate changes add to the complexity via effects on forest ecosystem processes, such as primary production and respiration, and also by adding a new goal on the agenda: the role of forests in climate mitigation. In recent years, the generation of climate model projections, representing a range of future scenarios, has enabled the development of strategic decisions in relation to risk management, and created a demand for cross-sectorial adaptation and mitigation processes. In this ecosystem model study we address these issues from the perspective of Swedish forest owners, by focusing on climate impacts and forest management effects on the potential harvest level, net income, predisposition to storm damage, biodiversity and carbon storage. The objective was to evaluate alternative management strategies, applicable to northern boreal, southern boreal and nemoral conditions. A general finding is that targeted combinations of forest stand management strategies can lead to a higher degree of goal fulfilment at the landscape level than current forest management practice.

A great deal of biodiversity can be found in private forests, and protecting it requires taking into consideration the preferences of key stakeholders. In this study, we examine divergence in stakeholders' preferences for forest attributes across the general public, private non-industrial forest owners and public and private forest officials in Sweden by conducting a discrete choice experiment. Our results indicate that citizens have a positive valuation of biodiversity protection. Moreover, their valuation is statistically significantly higher than those of forest owners. Interestingly, our results suggest that both forest owners and forest officials have a strong orientation towards production, with higher valuation than the general public of the common management practice of even aged stands and clear felling. Even though the Swedish Forestry Act regards production and environmental goals as equally important, we find that forest officials prefer management practices that promote production rather than biodiversity protection.

Background A warmer climate has consequences for the timing of phenological events, as temperature is a key factor controlling plant development and flowering. In this study, we analyse the effects of the long-term climate change and an extreme weather event on the first flowering day (FFD) of five spring-flowering wild plant species in the United Kingdom. Citizen science data from the UK Woodland Trust were obtained for five species: Tussilago farfara (coltsfoot), Anemone nemorosa (wood anemone), Hyacinthoides non-scripta (bluebell), Cardamine pratensis (cuckooflower) and Alliaria petiolate (garlic mustard). Results Out of the 351 site-specific time series (≥ 15-years of FFD records), 74.6% showed significant negative response rates, i.e. earlier flowering in warmer years, ranging from − 5.6 to − 7.7 days °C−1. 23.7% of the series had non-significant negative response rates, and 1.7% had non-significant positive response rates. For cuckooflower, the response rate was increasingly more negative with decreasing latitudes. The winter of 2007 reflects an extreme weather event, about 2 °C warmer compared to 2006, where the 2006 winter temperatures were similar to the 1961–1990 baseline average. The FFD of each species was compared between 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the mean FFD of all species significantly advanced between 13 and 18 days during the extreme warmer winter of 2007, confirming that FFD is affected by temperature. Conclusion Given that all species in the study significantly respond to ambient near-surface temperatures, they are suitable as climate-change indicators. However, the responses to a + 2 °C warmer winter were both more and less pronounced than expected from an analysis of ≥ 15-year time series. This may reflect non-linear responses, species-specific thresholds and cumulative temperature effects. It also indicates that knowledge on extreme weather events is needed for detailed projections of potential climate change effects.

Almost three out of four EU citizens live in urban areas. Knowledge on the city’s environmental structure and capabilities is needed as urbanization is expected to continue. In this study, eight indicators on urban ecosystems condition (ECIs) were quantified for 305 EU cities (>100.000 inhabitants). A composite indicator (CI), based on the ECIs, indicated differences between northern and southern EU countries, with Umeå having the highest CI value (1.56) and Napoli the lowest (−1.21). Positive effects of urban green infrastructure (GI) were found for NO2 removal, recreation opportunities and lowered urban heat island effect. The proportion of green and built infrastructure differs between city cores and larger urban zones, and the area outside the core hosts a considerable part of the overall GI. This zone is thus of importance for the provisioning of urban ecosystem services, to be considered when planning for urban growth and climate adaptation strategies.

The ongoing climate change can influence the dynamic of insect populations and therefore the Insect species Responsible for Forest Damage (“insects-RFD” hereafter). The present study aims at identifying the most occurring insects-RFD in Sweden, and exploring the relationships between insects-RFD and climate and land management changes. The recorded insect attacks based on historical reports, literature and databases, were collected for North, Central and South of Sweden, and for two periods at yearly time scales: 1850–1950 and 1961–2014. A series of analyses has been carried out based on this dataset: 1-Estimation of the occurrence of each insects-RFD over years to assess which insect species have caused the major forest damage, 2-Ratios of broadleaved versus conifer host trees to estimate the main types of damaged forests, and 3-Canonical correspondence analyses to evaluate how much climate (winter and summer temperature, winter and summer precipitation, and storms) and land management (land areas for wood production, standing volume for all trees and standing volume for deciduous trees) changes have affected insects-RFD. The results reveal that the most occurring insects-RFD differ between the North and South of Sweden, and between 1850–1950 and 1961–2014. The most occurring insects-RFD since 1850 were Ips typographus, Neodiprion sertifer, Tortrix viridana, Hylobius abietis and Tomicus piniperda. The occurrences of insects-RFD have been higher in the South of Sweden since at least 1850 than in other regions. The North of Sweden have been mostly affected by insects-RFD between 1911 and 1950. Canonical correspondence analyses show that the spread of insects-RFD might be related to environmental conditions. More particularly, the insects-RFD variation explained are increasing between 1902–1950 and 1961–2007 in all Sweden for temperature (winter and summer) and in Central and South of Sweden for storm damage. However, the evolution of landscape management would participate in influencing insects-RFD, in particular from 1961, when changes in forest management (e.g. increase in land areas for wood production) have been developed, as well as the way to report insect forest damages. This long-term perspective of how changes in climate and land management have influenced insects-RFD is of great interest for further discussion about climate adaptation strategies in forestry and ecosystem services.

Europe is one of the world’s largest food producers, and climate change may pose a serious threat to food security in the region. In the present study, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB), Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say)—a severe pest of potato (Solanum tuberosum, L.). We also investigate the possible impact of climate change on the phenological development of potato. The main focus is on factors that may limit the northward expansion of the CPB, and the number of generations per year in areas where the insect pest is already present. These factors include lack of temperature sum for completed development before winter, and lack of food (i.e. potato) due to mismatches in insect-host plant phenological synchrony. We use a gridded observational dataset and an ensemble of bias corrected regional climate model data for the period of 1981–2099, representing RCP8.5, as input to a potato and CPB phenological model. The results show that in the future, CPB individuals with a low developmental threshold (+10 °C) can complete maturity of two generations per year before potato is harvested in most parts of Europe. A third generation of CPB may not be able to complete maturation due to lack of food in south and central Europe, while temperature becomes a limiting factor further north. In north-eastern Europe, the initiation of a first generation may be delayed due to lack of food in spring. CPBs with a high developmental threshold (+12 °C) will emerge later from winter hibernation, and food availability will therefore not be a problem in spring. However, individuals with a high developmental threshold face a greater risk of regeneration failure caused by harvesting of potato in autumn. The potential lack of food in autumn may also increase the strength of selection towards a low developmental threshold in northern populations. The combined analysis of CPB and potato phenology indicated that climate change can lead to increased pressure from the CPB in most potato growing areas.

Bark beetles are among the most devastating biotic agents affecting forests globally and several species are expected to be favored by climate change. Given the potential interactions of insect outbreaks with other biotic and abiotic disturbances, and the potentially strong impact of changing disturbance regimes on forest resources, investigating climatic drivers of destructive bark beetle outbreaks is of paramount importance. We analyzed 17 time-series of the amount of wood damaged by Ips typographus, the most destructive pest of Norway spruce forests, collected across 8 European countries in the last three decades. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of key climate drivers in explaining timber loss dynamics, also testing for possible synergistic effects. Local outbreaks shared the same drivers, including increasing summer rainfall deficit and warm temperatures. Large availability of storm-felled trees in the previous year was also strongly related to an increase in timber loss, likely by providing an alternative source of breeding material. We did not find any positive synergy among outbreak drivers. On the contrary, the occurrence of large storms reduced the positive effect of warming temperatures and rainfall deficit. The large surplus of breeding material likely boosted I. typographus population size above the density threshold required to colonize and kill healthy trees irrespective of other climate triggers. Importantly, we found strong negative density dependence in I. typographus that may provide a mechanism for population decline after population eruptions. Generality in the effects of complex climatic events across different geographical areas suggests that the large-scale drivers can be used as early warning indicators of increasing local outbreak probability., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Bark beetle population dynamics is thought to be primarily driven by bottom-up forces affecting insect performance and host tree resistance. Although there are theoretical predictions and empirical evidences that predation and parasitism may play an important role in driving bark beetle population fluctuations, long-term studies testing the role of both biotic and abiotic controls on population dynamics are still rare. The aim of the study was to quantify the relative importance of predation, negative density feedback and abiotic factors in driving Ips typographus population dynamics. We analyzed a unique time series of population density of I. typographus and its main predator Thanasimus formicarius over almost two decades in four regions across Sweden. We used a discrete population model and a multi-model inference approach to evaluate the importance of both bottom up and top down factors. We found that availability of breeding substrates in the form of storm-felled trees was the main outbreak trigger, while strong intra-specific competition for host trees was the main endogenous regulating factor. Although temperature-related metrics are known to have strong individual effect on I. typographus development and number of generations, they did not emerge as important drivers of population dynamics. A positive effect of low summer rainfall was evident only in the region located in the southernmost and warmest part of the spruce distribution range in Sweden. Predator density did not emerge as an important prey regulating factor. As the reported damage from storms seems to have increased across whole Europe, spruce forests are expected to be increasingly susceptible to large outbreaks of I. typographus with important economic and ecological consequences for boreal ecosystems. However, the observed negative density feedback seems to be a natural regulating mechanism that impedes a strong long-term propagation of the outbreaks.

We investigated if coarse-resolution satellite data from the MODIS sensor can be used for regional monitoring of insect disturbances in Fennoscandia. A damage detection method based on z-scores of seasonal maximums of the 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) was developed. Time-series smoothing was applied and Receiver Operating Characteristics graphs were used for optimisation. The method was developed in fragmented and heavily managed forests in eastern Finland dominated by Scots pine ( L.) (pinaceae) and with defoliation of European pine sawfly ( Geoffr.) (Hymenoptera: Diprionidae) and common pine sawfly ( L.) (Hymenoptera: Diprionidae). The method was also applied to subalpine mountain birch ( N.I. Orlova) forests in northern Sweden, infested by autumnal moth (Borkhausen) and winter moth ( L.). In Finland, detection accuracies were fairly low with 50% of the damaged stands detected, and a misclassification of healthy stands of 22%. In areas with long outbreak histories the method resulted in extensive misclassification. In northern Sweden accuracies were higher, with 75% of the damage detected and a misclassification of healthy samples of 19%. Our results indicate that MODIS data may fail to detect damage in fragmented forests, particularly when the damage history is long. Therefore, regional studies based on these data may underestimate defoliation. However, the method yielded accurate results in homogeneous forest ecosystems and when long-enough periods without damage could be identified. Furthermore, the method is likely to be useful for insect disturbance detection using future medium-resolution data, e.g. from Sentinel‑2.Pinus sylvestrisNeodiprion sertiferDiprion piniBetula pubescensssp. Czerepanovii Epirrita autumnata Operophtera brumata

This chapter focuses on forms of and challenges for risk communication within regional environmental governance, based on an analysis of five environmental risks in the Baltic Sea – marine oil transportation, chemicals, overfishing, eutrophication and alien species. We address questions about how risks are framed and communicated and also analyse the role of communication in the governance process. Our main focus is on risk communication with the public (e.g. existing institutional arrangements and procedures of risk communication), but we also relate this analysis to discussions on communication with a broad range of actors and issues of stakeholder participation and communication. In the study we have identified some examples of relatively well-working risk communication with parts of the organised public in the Baltic Sea region (BSR), such as in fisheries or eutrophication, but also a number of different barriers and obstacles. Our key result from this study is that BSR consists of many national institutions for risk communication, but that there are hardly any centralised institutions for risk communication activities relating to environmental governance in the region. Another key conclusion is that public risk communication in this array of cross-national environmental risks is restricted mainly to (one-way) information. Against this backdrop and from our empirical and theoretical knowledge of risk communication and the role of the public, we finally suggest some ways for improvement.

Wind is the dominant agent of damage in forests in Western Europe. Traditional winddamage models calculate a probability for damage or a critical wind speed at which damage occurs. However, in a dynamic vegetation model actual damage to stands and individual trees is needed to get a dynamical progression of the vegetation. We present a prototype for a new approach to modelling forest wind damage at the regional scale, which we incorporate within a dynamic vegetation model. The approach is based on knowledge from both empirical and mechanical models and calculates the damaged fraction of a cohort based on wind load and a sensitivity that depends on the current physical state and history of the cohort in relation to the ecosystem. The modelling concept has been developed, calibrated and evaluated for Swedish conditions but can be applicable to other similar areas with minor modification. Because of the stochastic nature of local wind load and the difficulty of describing the stand-level exposure, the ability to explain observed damage at stand level was low. Regional level variation in damage, which more depends on the wind load, was however explained reasonably well (R2 = 0.43). We suggest that this is a useful concept for evaluating alternatives of forest management under different climate scenarios in the process of adaptation to future storm-damage risks.

In this study, we quantify the effect of uncertainties in climate projections on an impact model (IPS) that describes the temperature-dependent swarming and development of Ips typographus . Three forcing climate data sets (ensembles) were used: (1) E-Obs gridded observations, (2) ERA-40 reanalysis data downscaled by eight regional climate models (RCMs) and (3) regional scenarios from one RCM forced by seven GCM simulations representing SRES-A1B, for the period of 1961–2097. The IPS_RCM_ERA40 ensemble members, including IPS_RC3_ERA40 , were generally within the IPS_E-Obs confidence limits. The IPS model is however sensitive to the warming during spring and cooling during autumn, and deviations in simulated swarming were related to known climate model biases. The variation between the IPS_RCA3_GCM ensemble members was particularly high in regions where warmer summers (temperature increase from +2 °C to +4 °C) will induce an additional generation per year, for example a shift from one to two generations per year in south Scandinavia, and an increased frequency of three generations per year in central Europe. Impact assessments based on an ensemble of climate data gives more robust decision support than a single climate model approach because it allows a probabilistic assessment of the geographical areas experiencing a transition in biological response.

International audience; Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework founded in disturbance ecology to analyze modelling approaches for drought, wind, forest fires, insect pests and ungulate browsing. Modelling approaches were reviewed by disturbance agent and mechanism, and a set of general disturbance modelling concepts was deduced. We found that although the number of disturbance modelling approaches emerging over the last 15 years has increased strongly, statistical concepts for descriptive modelling are still largely prevalent over mechanistic concepts for explanatory and predictive applications. Yet, considering the increasing importance of disturbances for forest dynamics and ecosystem stewardship under anthropogenic climate change, the latter concepts are crucial tool for understanding and coping with change in forest ecosystems. Current challenges for disturbance modelling in forest ecosystems are thus (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, (ii) to further a mechanistic foundation in disturbance modelling, (iii) to integrate multiple disturbance processes in dynamic ecosystem models for decision support in forest management, and (iv) to bring together scaling capabilities across several levels of organization with a representation of system complexity that captures the emergent behaviour of disturbance regimes.

International audience; The sensitivity to frost in the living inner bark of trees have been hypothesised to be influenced by acid rain and N deposition through changes in nutrient balance and carbon metabolism. At the Skogaby experimental site, situated in southern Sweden, Norway spruce in control plots, plots fertilized with ammonium sulphate and plots fertilized with mineral nutrients except N were compared in this respect. Frost sensitivity was measured by electrolytic leakage and expressed as an index of injury. The results showed increased sensitivity to frost in the bark of trees treated with continuous applications of ammonium sulphate for 11 years. This was probably not only a direct effect of high nitrogen availability, but also caused by insufficient levels of other nutrients due to the rapid growth and changes in soil chemistry induced by the addition of ammonium sulphate. Mainly Mg and K seemed to be of importance for retaining a good frost resistance, supporting the hypothesis that nutrient imbalances increases the risk for development of frost related bark lesions in southern Sweden.; Effets d'un excès d'azote sur la sensibilité au froid de l'écorce interne de l'Epicéa. On a émis l'hypothèse selon laquelle la sensibilité au froid de la partie vivante interne de l'écorce des arbres serait influencée par les pluies acides et les dégâts azotés, par suite de changements de l'équilibre d'azote et du métabolisme du carbone. À la station expérimentale de Skogaby, située en Suède méridionale, on a comparé le comportement, sous cet angle, de l'épicéa dans un dispositif comportant des parcelles fertilisées avec divers nutrients à l'exclusion d'azote, ainsi que des parcelles témoins. La sensibilité au froid a été évaluée par des mesures de conductivité électrolitique, et exprimée par un indice de l'importance des dommages observés. Les résultats montrent une sensibilité accrue au froid de l'écorce des arbres traités d'une manière continue pendant 11 ans avec du sulfate d'ammoniac. Cela est probablement dû, non seulement à l'effet direct d'une importante disponibilité en azote, mais aussi à un niveau insuffisant de celle des autres nutrients, cela résultant d'une croissance plus rapide ainsi que de modifications des équilibres chimiques du sol induits par l'apport du sulfate d'ammoniac. Le rôle de Mg et K semble particulièrement important pour assurer une bonne résistance au froid, ce qui appuie l'hypothèse selon laquelle des déséquilibres entre nutrients augmentent le risque de lésions de l'écorce dans le sud de la Suède.

International audience; Concentration of nutrients and balance between nutrients in trees can affect tree vitality, and are dependent on soil conditions and atmospheric deposition. The aim of this investigation was to survey the concentration of nutrients in beech bark and to look for relationships with the frost sensitivity of the bark. Beech trees with bark lesions were compared to undamaged beech trees on five experimental sites with control plots, plots treated with nitrogen, ash or lime. Trees treated with lime had increased Ca/Al ratio and decreased concentrations of Mn and B. Negative influence from N fertilization could be traced in the concentration of nutrients in the bark seven years after treatment, but the absence of new lesions indicated that the vigour of the trees has increased. The frost sensitivity was correlated to the nutrient content. Trees with lesions had higher concentrations of N and Al, indicating influence of soil acidity.; Influence de la composition en éléments minéraux de l'écorce en relation avec les traitements chimiques apportés au sol sur la sensibilité au froid du hêtre dans le sud de la Suède. La concentration et l'équilibre des éléments minéraux dans les arbres peut affecter leur vitalité et sont dépendants des conditions de sol et des dépôts atmosphériques. Le but de ce travail a été d'étudier la concentration des éléments minéraux dans l'écorce du hêtre et d'essayer de mettre en évidence des relations avec la sensibilité au froid des écorces. Les arbres avec des lésions au niveau de l'écorce étaient comparés avec des arbres indemnes dans cinq sites expérimentaux comprenant des placettes témoins et des placettes traitées avec apport d'azote, de cendres ou de chaux. Les arbres traités avec apport de chaux ont vu un accroissement du rapport Ca/Al et une décroissance de la concentration en manganèse et en bore. Une influence négative de la fertilisation azotée peut être retrouvée sur la concentration en éléments minéraux de l'écorce sept ans après le traitement. Mais l'absence de nouvelles lésions indique que la vigueur des arbres a été accrue. La sensibilité au froid a été correlée avec la teneur en éléments minéraux. Les arbres avec des lésions ont présenté une plus grande concentration en azote et en Al reflétant l'influence de l'acidité du sol.

Departing from previous theoretical and empirical studies on sustainable supply-chain management, we investigate organizational commitment (drivers and motivations) and capabilities (resources, str ...

The annual growth cycle of boreal trees is synchronized with seasonal changes in photoperiod and temperature. A warmer climate can lead to an earlier bud burst and increased risk of frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. In this study we analysed site- and provenance specific responses to interannual variation in temperature, using data from 18 Swedish and East-European provenances of Norway spruce (Picea abies), grown in three different sites in southern Sweden. The temperature sum requirements for bud burst, estimated from the provenance trials, were correlated with the provenance specific place of origin, in terms of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. Frost damage had a significant effect on tree height development. Earlier timing of bud burst was linked to a higher risk of frost damage, with one of the sites being more prone to spring frost than the other two. The estimated provenance specific temperature sum requirements for bud burst were used to parametrize a temperature sum model of bud burst timing, which was then used together with the ensemble of gridded climate model data (RCP8.5) to assess the climate change impact on bud burst and associated risk of frost damage. In this respect, the simulated timing of bud burst and occurrence of frost events for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 were compared with 1989–2018. In response to a warmer climate, the total number of frost events in southern Sweden will decrease, while the number of frost events after bud burst will increase due to earlier bud burst timing. The provenance specific assessments of frost risk under climate change can be used for a selection of seed sources in Swedish forestry. In terms of selecting suitable provenances, knowledge on local climate conditions is of importance, as the gridded climate data may differ from local temperature conditions. A comparison with temperature logger data from ten different sites indicated that the gridded temperature data were a good proxy for the daily mean temperatures, but the gridded daily minimum temperatures tended to underestimate the local risk of frost events, in particular at the measurements 0.5 m above ground representing the height of newly established seedlings.