Yann Sellier, Romain Bertrand, Iris Nadeau, Clémentine Préau, César Capinha, Marc Collas, Francis Isselin-Nondedeu, Frédéric Grandjean, GEREPI, Service d'endocrinologie, gynécologie et diabétologie pédiatriques [CHU Necker], CHU Necker - Enfants Malades [AP-HP], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade do Porto, Ecologie et biologie des interactions (EBI), Université de Poitiers-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ecologie, Evolution, Symbiose (EES), Université de Poitiers-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Poitiers-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CIBIO/InBIO Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Càtedra Infraestruturas de Portugal-Biodiversidade, Universidade do Porto, Universidade do Porto [Porto], Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa, Réserve Naturelle Nationale du Pinail, Cités, Territoires, Environnement et Sociétés (CITERES), Université de Tours (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Station d'écologie théorique et expérimentale (SETE), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agence française pour la biodiversité, and Universidade do Porto = University of Porto
International audience; 1. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.2. We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.3. We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.4. Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat.