1. Potential benefit of extra radiosonde observations around the Chukchi Sea for the Alaskan short-range weather forecast
- Author
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Min-Hee Lee, Akira Yamazaki, Jun Inoue, Kazutoshi Sato, Hyo-Jong Song, and Joo-Hong Kim
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Ship-borne radiosonde observation ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Aquatic Science ,01 natural sciences ,law.invention ,Troposphere ,Data assimilation ,law ,Range (statistics) ,Trough (meteorology) ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Ecology ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Observing system experiment ,Depth sounding ,Arctic ,Weather forecasts ,Climatology ,Radiosonde ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Error reduction ,Arctic ocean - Abstract
In recent years, growing attentions have been paid to the potential benefit of extra observations over the data-sparse Arctic Ocean for weather forecasts. Here we also focus on such a case by targeting the inhabited land area, Alaska. During 2–18 August 2015, ship-borne radiosonde sounding observations were performed every 12 h (except 6-hourly from 12:00 UTC 11 August to 00:00 UTC 14 August) around the Chukchi Sea. To assess the impact of those extra radiosonde observations, two sets of ensemble forecast experiments (CTLf and OSE_Af) were produced, which were respectively initialized by atmospheric reanalysis data without (CTL) and with (OSE_A) additional assimilation of those data. The tropospheric circulation fields are compared to verify their differences in forecast performance. While two forecasts have similar performance in the earlier spin-up period of the analysis-forecast cycle (from 4 to 7 August), their performance tends to diverge in the later period (from 11 to 18 August) due to the accumulated influence on the error reduction in OSE_Af. Among the improved forecasts in OSE_Af, two most outperformed forecasts, each initialized on 00:00 UTC 12 and 00:00 UTC 14, show a notable improvement in predicting the developing trough over Alaska on 16–17 August by suppressing the development of erroneous high anomalies in CTLf. Though the positive impact of single-point observations is limited in a space, our results suggest that enhanced radiosonde profile observations in the data-sparse polar ocean could be beneficial for the forecasts beyond the observational area.
- Published
- 2019