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We investigate the sensitivity of future space-borne lidar measurements to changes in surface methane emissions. We use surface methane observations from nine European ground stations, and a Lagrangian transport model to obtain surface methane emissions for 2010. Our inversion shows the strongest emissions from the Netherlands, the coalmines in Upper Silesia Poland, and wetlands in southern Finland. Our simulated methane surface concentration captures at least half of the daily variability in the observations, suggesting that the transport model is correctly simulating the regional transport pathways over Europe. With this tool we can perturb the surface fluxes and see the resulting changes in the simulated column methane measurements. For example, we show that future lidar instruments can detect a 50% reduction in methane emissions from the Netherlands and Germany, but only after averaging measurements on a monthly time scale.

The Bayesian framework of CO2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5° resolution are applied for the western European domain where ~ 50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002–2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38%. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than represented by the prior ecosystem model.

Time series are presented of radiocarbon and 13C contents in atmospheric carbon dioxide over eastern Europe (southern Poland), covering the periods 1983–1994 and 2000–2004. The carbon isotope composition was measured in biweekly composite samples of atmospheric CO2, collected about 20 m above the local ground level. The data for 2 observational sites are presented: i) city of Kraków (50°04′N, 19°55′E; 220 m asl; for 1983–1994 and 2000–2004); and ii) Kasprowy Wierch, Tatra Mountains (49°14′N, 19°56′E; 1989 m asl; for 2000–2004). The latter site is considered a regional reference station, relatively free of anthropogenic influences. During the period 1983–1994, observations in the Kraków area revealed a gradual decrease of 14C content with a broad minimum around 1991 and a small increase by about 10% in the subsequent years. δ13C also changes with time, showing a decreasing trend from approximately −9.6% in 1983, with a slope of −0.02%/yr. The observed trends for both isotopes coincide well with a substantial reduction of coal consumption in Poland and partial replacement of coal by natural gas, especially in urban regions. After 2000, the δ13C slightly increases, reaching a mean value of −10% in 2004, while Δ14C is below the reference level by ∼3.5%. Observations at Kasprowy Wierch (regional reference station) also reflect a diminishing input of fossil carbon into the regional atmosphere. The fossil component in atmospheric CO2, calculated with the aid of 14C data available for the 2 study periods, shows a reduction of anthropogenic input by a factor of 2, which is confirmed by annual statistics of coal consumption.

We adapt general statistical methods to estimate the optimal error covariance matrices in a regional inversion system inferring methane surface emissions from atmospheric concentrations. Using a minimal set of physical hypotheses on the patterns of errors, we compute a guess of the error statistics that is optimal in regard to objective statistical criteria for the specific inversion system. With this very general approach applied to a real-data case, we recover sources of errors in the observations and in the prior state of the system that are consistent with expert knowledge while inferred from objective criteria and with affordable computation costs. By not assuming any specific error patterns, our results depict the variability and the inter-dependency of errors induced by complex factors such as the misrepresentation of the observations in the transport model or the inability of the model to reproduce well the situations of steep gradients of concentrations. Situations with probable significant biases (e.g., during the night when vertical mixing is ill-represented by the transport model) can also be diagnosed by our methods in order to point at necessary improvement in a model. By additionally analysing the sensitivity of the inversion to each observation, guidelines to enhance data selection in regional inversions are also proposed. We applied our method to a recent significant accidental methane release from an offshore platform in the North Sea and found methane fluxes of the same magnitude than what was officially declared.