1. Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates
- Author
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Madlen Peter, Marc Scheibel, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
- Subjects
Polynomial ,lcsh:Hydraulic engineering ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,0207 environmental engineering ,Forecast skill ,02 engineering and technology ,Aquatic Science ,extreme value statistics ,01 natural sciences ,Biochemistry ,subdaily precipitation extremes ,lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes ,intensity-duration-frequency curve ,lcsh:TC1-978 ,spatial covariates ,Covariate ,Statistics ,Rare events ,500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie::551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie ,020701 environmental engineering ,Extreme value theory ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Mathematics ,lcsh:TD201-500 ,extreme precipitation ,Model selection ,duration-dependent GEV ,Generalized extreme value distribution ,intensity–duration–frequency curve ,vector generalized linear model ,Quantile - Abstract
Given that long time series for temporally highly resolved precipitation observations are rarely available, it is necessary to pool information to obtain reliable estimates of the distribution of extreme precipitation, especially for short durations. In this study, we use a duration-dependent generalized extreme value distribution (d-GEV) with orthogonal polynomials of longitude and latitude as spatial covariates, allowing us to pool information between durations and stations. We determine the polynomial orders with stepwise forward regression and cross-validated likelihood as a model selection criterion. The Wupper River catchment in the west of Germany serves as a case study area. It allows us to estimate return level maps for arbitrary durations, as well as intensity&ndash, duration&ndash, frequency curves at any location&mdash, also ungauged&mdash, in the research area. The main focus of the study is evaluating the model performance in detail using the Quantile Skill Index, a measure derived from the popular Quantile Skill Score. We find that the d-GEV with spatial covariates is an improvement for the modeling of rare events. However, the model shows limitations concerning the modeling of short durations d&le, 30min. For ungauged sites, the model performs on average as good as a generalized extreme value distribution with parameters estimated individually at the gauged stations with observation time series of 30&ndash, 35 years available.
- Published
- 2020
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