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In the face of climate change, development and humanitarian practitioners increasingly recognize the need to anticipate and manage multiple, concurrent risks. One prominent example of this increasing focus on anticipation is the rapid growth of Forecast-based Financing (FbF), in particular within Red Cross and Red Crescent (RCRC). To evaluate how anticipatory efforts managed multiple compounding risks during the COVID-19 pandemic, we examine how 14 RCRC Societies adapted their Early Action Protocols to COVID-19. Though many National Societies successfully adapted to the onset of the additional hazard of COVID-19, we find that multi-hazard risk management can be improved by: proactively developing guidelines that enable rapid adaptation of existing plans; more flexible funding mechanisms; surge capacity to provide additional human resources; and increasing local capacity and ownership for implementation to ensure supplies, skills, and decision-making authority are available when communication or travel is restricted. These findings align with wider recommendations for improving development, humanitarian, and climate adaptation practice towards local capacity and agency. They also add urgency to broader calls for more flexible disaster financing and more practitioner-oriented investment in climate risk and multi-hazard management.

Climate services are intended to improve climate-sensitive decisions by making climate information ‘useful, useable and used’. Here, we analyse 27 expert interviews to evaluate whether this user-driven model of climate science has been successfully implemented in the public sector. We show that, although climate services promise better decision-making, they mainly focus on delivering better data. The norms and institutions of climate science produce three key tensions in operationalizing climate services: a focus on products rather than processes, services based on broad assumptions about demand rather than being demand-driven, and the narrow economic valuation of products rather than evaluation of improvements in decision-making. These tensions help explain why climate services often generate nominal changes in climate science where transformations are promised. Transformational change requires that climate services account for diverse social structures, behaviours and contexts. Integrating social science is no panacea for demand-driven climate services, but it is certainly a prerequisite. Climate services aim to make climate data and information accessible for climate-sensitive decision-making. However, the grounding of climate services in the norms and institutions of climate science creates tensions that reduce the impact of climate services.

Holistic information systems for climate-smart agriculture demands the seamless integration of various categories of climate, meteorological and weather data. Any actor in the agricultural value chain may harness weather forecasts at the short and medium-range, local weather history, and prevailing climatic conditions, to inform decision-making. Weather is fundamental to many day-to-day operations, especially at farm-level, influencing decision-making at various spatial and temporal scales. Many operational decisions ideally require hyper-localized service provision. In practice, integrating weather information into decision-support services demands a comprehensive understanding of various categories of weather-related data, their genesis, as well as the specific standards and data formats used by the meteorological community. This paper considers the weather as a crucial context for the delivery of farm-level operational services in smart agriculture, highlighting critical issues for reflection by system designers during the service design and implementation phases.

It is often assumed that weather regimes adequately characterize atmospheric circulation variability. However, regime classifications spanning many months and with a low number of regimes may not satisfy this assumption. The first aim of this study is to test such hypothesis for the Euro-Atlantic region. The second one is to extend the assessment of sub-seasonal forecast skill in predicting the frequencies of occurrence of the regimes beyond the winter season. Two regime classifications of four regimes each were obtained from sea level pressure anomalies clustered from October to March and from April to September respectively. Their spatial patterns were compared with those representing the annual cycle. Results highlight that the two regime classifications are able to reproduce most part of the patterns of the annual cycle, except during the transition weeks between the two periods, when patterns of the annual cycle resembling Atlantic Low regime are not also observed in any of the two classifications. Forecast skill of Atlantic Low was found to be similar to that of NAO+, the regime replacing Atlantic Low in the two classifications. Thus, although clustering yearly circulation data in two periods of 6 months each introduces a few deviations from the annual cycle of the regime patterns, it does not negatively affect sub-seasonal forecast skill. Beyond the winter season and the first ten forecast days, sub-seasonal forecasts of ECMWF are still able to achieve weekly frequency correlations of r = 0.5 for some regimes and start dates, including summer ones. ECMWF forecasts beat climatological forecasts in case of long-lasting regime events, and when measured by the fair continuous ranked probability skill score, but not when measured by the Brier skill score. Thus, more efforts have to be done yet in order to achieve minimum skill necessary to develop forecast products based on weather regimes outside winter season. The research leading to these results was funded by the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for Energy (S2S4E) Project (GA776787), by the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA-II) project (PCIN-2016-029) and by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) as part of the CLINSA project (CGL2017-85791-R) and of the Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación Grant (IJCI-2016-29776). We also acknowledge the developers of the s2dverification software package (Manubens et al 2018), used for the data analysis and the visualization of the results presented in this work. The authors would also like to express their gratitude to Pierre-Antoine Bretonniére, Margarida Samsó and Núria Pérez-Zanón for their fundamental contribute in downloading and pre-processing data, and to Dr. Stefano Materia, Dr. Markus Donat, Dr. Simon Wild for their insightful comments and suggestions.

Uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of climate forecasts and projections. While there is an expanding body of international research on identifying what climate information users need to know about uncertainty, and how this should be communicated, very little of this has been conducted in a Chinese cultural context. In this paper, we report on the findings of interviews with climate experts (n = 28) and (potential) users of climate information in China (n = 18) at seasonal and multidecadal timescales, with the objective of addressing the following research questions: (1) What information about uncertainty in climate forecasts and projections is currently provided to users in China? (2) What do climate experts believe that users need to know about uncertainty? (3) What information about uncertainty would (potential) users like to receive? (4) What challenges do providers and users perceive with respect to the communication of uncertainty? We find that while seasonal forecasts are predominantly presented deterministically, current and potential users are aware that there is uncertainty associated with them. Climate experts highlight the probabilistic nature of forecasts and the conditional nature of forecast quality, as areas for communication development. Interviews with (potential) users indicate that (1) preferences for deterministic information are not unanimous; (2) probabilities associated with conditions being above/below normal may only be considered useful for decision-making if they are > 60%; and (3) forecasts that provide tailored statements on probability of user-relevant thresholds are preferred. At multidecadal timescales, we observe lower engagement with projections, and less evidence of interaction between providers and recipients, suggesting that development of climate services at multidecadal timescales will need to first highlight the added value of these. We present key recommendations for communicating uncertainty in seasonal forecasts and explore the potential value of multidecadal projections.

Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China (CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service; bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.

Subseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time scale is crucial for operations and planning in many sectors such as energy and agriculture. For users to trust these predictions and efficiently make use of them in decision-making, the quality of predicted near-surface parameters needs to be systematically assessed. However, the method to follow in a probabilistic evaluation of subseasonal predictions is not trivial. This study aims to offer an illustration of the impact that the verification setup might have on the calculation of the skill scores, thus providing some guidelines for subseasonal forecast evaluation. For this, several forecast verification setups to calculate the fair ranked probability skill score for tercile categories have been designed. These setups use different number of samples to compute the fair RPSS as well as different ways to define the climatology, characterized by different time periods to average (week or month). These setups have been tested by evaluating 2-m temperature in ECMWF-Ext-ENS 20-yr hindcasts for all of the initializations in 2016 against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Then, the implications on skill score values of each of the setups are analyzed. Results show that to obtain a robust skill score several start dates need to be employed. It is also shown that a constant monthly climatology over each calendar month may introduce spurious skill score associated with the seasonal cycle. A weekly climatology bears similar results to a monthly running-window climatology; however, the latter provides a better reference climatology when bias adjustment is applied. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grants 7767874 (S2S4E) and 641811 (IMPREX). We acknowledge the ECMWF for producing the ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF-Ext-ENS predictions and the WWRP/WCRP S2S Project for making ECMWF-Ext-ENS predictions available through its database (http://s2sprediction.net/). We acknowledge the use of the SpecsVerification (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=SpecsVerification), s2dverification https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=s2dverification), and startR (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=startR) R software packages. The authors thank Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó, and Julia Giner for data downloading and processing and Nicolau Manubens, An Chi-Ho, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Javier Vegas, and Lluís Palma for technical support.

In recent years there has been a shift away from the implementation of climate services as, primarily, a science focused activity, to one which embraces the value of transdisciplinary co-production...

Improvement of rainfall forecasts on seasonal to within-season timescales is crucial for many vulnerable regions and nations, including Bangladesh. For South Asia, seasonal predictability of rainfall can be quite challenging, and Bangladesh has limited predictive skill with respect to total seasonal rainfall due to its weak relationship with ENSO variability. The relationship between total seasonal monsoon rainfall from June through September (JJAS), as simulated by the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME), and within-season observed rainfall statistics for Bangladesh were explored, employing 25-year cross-validations at lead times up to 3 months. The model hindcasts of total JJAS rainfall demonstrate only low-to-modest skill at predicting total observed seasonal rainfall, but a more robust predictive relationship is found for the number of observed dry and wet spells within the season, more so than with the number of extreme dry or wet days. A small ensemble of NMME models could be used to provide more valuable information to aid decision-makers than previously thought, with important implications for agricultural decision-making and climate services.

This study attempts to assess the validity of the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) products across Iran. Six IMERG precipitation products (IPPs) including early, late, and final runs for versions 05 and 06 were compared with precipitation data from 76 synoptic stations on a daily scale for the period from June 2014 to June 2018. According to the results, V05 performed better than V06, particularly in early and late runs. The IPPs overestimate precipitation ranging from 5% to 32%; however, IPPs tended to underestimate (overestimate) the amount of precipitation for wet (dry) areas and precipitation classes higher than 5 mm day−1 (less than 5 mm day−1). The probability of detection (POD) in IPPs was almost similar (with a median equal to 0.60), whereas other categorical validation metrics like false alarm ratio (FAR) improved in the final run. Our assessments revealed that the dependency of IPPs to the elevation was low, while the error characteristics of IPPs were strongly dependent on the climate and precipitation intensity. For instance, the systematic error varied between less than 12% in dry regions to more than 60% in wet regions. Also, according to modified Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) and relative bias (RBias), the performance of IPPs in winter with the highest KGE (ranging from 0.47 to 0.63) and lowest RBias (ranging from 0% to 16%) was better than other seasons. Further improvement is recommended in the satellite sensors and the precipitation retrieval algorithms to achieve a reliable precipitation source.

There is growing awareness among governments, businesses, and the general public of risks arising from changes to our climate on time scales from months through to decades. Some climatic changes could be unprecedented in their harmful socioeconomic impacts, while others with adequate forewarning and planning could offer benefits. There is therefore a pressing need for decision-makers, including policy-makers, to have access to and to use high-quality, accessible, relevant, and credible climate information about the past, present, and future to help make better-informed decisions and policies. We refer to the provision and use of such information as climate services. Established programs of research and operational activities are improving observations and climate monitoring, our understanding of climate processes, climate variability and change, and predictions and projections of the future climate. Delivering climate information (including data and knowledge) in a way that is usable and useful for decision-makers has had less attention, and society has yet to optimally benefit from the available information. While weather services routinely help weather-sensitive decision-making, similar services for decisions on longer time scales are less well established. Many organizations are now actively developing climate services, and a growing number of decision-makers are keen to benefit from such services. This article describes progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies. The article highlights challenges in making further progress and proposes potential new directions to address such challenges.

The Polar Regions are undergoing rapid environmental change while simultaneously witnessing growth and diversification of human activity. These changes call for more responsive, detailed and specialized weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information services so that the risks related to human activities can be minimized. Drawn from an extensive literature review this article provides an examination of selected sectors and their uses of WWIC information services in order to offer an initial understanding of diverse environmental forecasting needs. Utilizing a mobilities perspective we provide a characterization of mobility in the Polar Regions to help contextualize current WWIC uses and needs. Using four illustrative case studies of polar mobilities (community activities; cruise tourism; shipping; and government and research operations) the article explores two broad questions: (1) How are mobilities characterized in the Polar Regions? (2) What is known about the role of WWIC information in Polar mobilities? The findings suggest an incongruence between the information provided and the ways in which WWIC information is both used and needed by various sectors. Knowledge gaps are outlined that suggest more efforts are needed to understand the highly complex set of interconnections between WWIC users, providers, mobilities and decision-making across the Polar Regions.

In this brief plain language report we introduce a novel diagrammatic way of thinking about interactions in transdisciplinary teams. This representation is designed to provoke debate about how teams which do not share a common world view can make progress, but not necessarily direct progress, towards common goals. We further identify a range of possible problems -- which we refer to as road-blocks -- which can limit progress and reduce the effectiveness of such projects. Finally we make short suggestions about how road-blocks might be lifted. The diagrammatic representation was developed as part of the plain language notes which were kept to document the progress of a work package -- part of the Blue-Action project -- dealing with Arctic Tourism. But the report draws on wider experience of transdisciplinary working in the team and attempts an easily readable summary of some aspects of how such projects do, and do not, work. We propose that interactions between members of a team that have little in common, with respect to experience and expertise, will rarely lead to outputs that meet the goals of the project unless supplementary activities first 'recast' their views towards a common frame of reference.

[EN] Climate services are tools or products that aim to support climate-informed decision making for the adaptation to climate change. The market for climate services is dominated by public institutions, despite the efforts made by the European Commission to increase private enterprise in the market. The business model perspective has been proposed as a framework for enabling market growth through the development of appropriate business models for the provision of climate services. However, there is a lack of structured knowledge on how to approach climate service design and development from a business model standpoint. In this contribution, we first analyze the role of stakeholders in the design and development of climate services and identify opportunities for engaging users in the creation process. Afterwards, we explain our approach to climate service design and development using a business model perspective. To illustrate the proposed approach, we describe the co-creation of a climate service to support the adaptation to climate change of the urban water supply system in Valencia, Spain, and discuss the main findings and lessons learned from applying this approach., We acknowledge the European Research Area for Climate Services consortium (ER4CS) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion for their financial support to this research under the INNOVA project (Grant Agreement: 690462; PCIN-2017-066). This study has also been partially funded by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (MICIU) of Spain.

Author(s): Jagannathan, K; Jones, AD; Ray, I | Abstract: Developing decision-relevant science for adaptation requires the identification of climatic parameters that are both actionable for practitioners as well as tractable for modelers. In many sectors, these decision-relevant climatic metrics and the approaches that enable their identification remain largely unknown. “Co-production” of science with scientists and decision-makers is one potential way to identify these metrics, but there is little research describing specific and successful co-production approaches. This paper examines the negotiations and outcomes from Project Hyperion, wherein scientists and water managers jointly developed decision-relevant climatic metrics for adaptive water management. We identify successful co-production strategies by analyzing the project's numerous back-and-forth engagements and tracing the evolution of the science during these engagements. We found that effective mediation between scientists and managers needed dedicated “boundary spanners” with significant modeling expertise. Translating practitioners' information needs into tractable climatic metrics required direct and indirect methods of eliciting knowledge. We identified four indirect methods that were particularly salient for extracting tacitly held knowledge and enabling shared learning: developing a hierarchical framework linking management issues with metrics, starting discussions from the planning challenges, collaboratively exploring the planning relevance of new scientific capabilities, and using analogies of other “good” metrics. The decision-relevant metrics we developed provide insights into advancing adaptation-relevant climate science in the water sector. The co-production strategies we identified can be used to design and implement productive scientist-decision-maker interactions. Overall, the approaches and metrics we developed can help climate science to expand in new and more use-inspired directions.

Climate services play an important role in informing decision makers about how to reduce the impact of climate-related hazards, by building capacity through access to relevant data and information globally and regionally. Different types of climate services include long-term warning systems, projections, monitoring/triggers and signals, risk evaluation tools, and behavior change tools. However, climate services are often promoted as “improving uptake” and “translating and communicating science” This framing, which assumes that climate services are developed by scientists and “provided” to users, has limitations for decision makers designing actions to address changing coastal hazard risk driven by sea-level rise. Acting upon the IPCC 1.5 Degree Special Report imperative for urgent actions to reduce exposure and vulnerability at the coast will require a transformation in the way climate services are developed and delivered, in tandem with an understanding of the decision-making and policy context. Tools and policies must explicitly address deepening uncertainty and changing risk over long timeframes. Their use also must be compatible with the jurisdiction’s institutional frameworks and decision-making practice and relevant to user needs as changing risks unfold. Attention to both short- and long-term decisions are paramount to avoid lock-in and path dependency of decisions taken today, and to ensure relevance for the timeframes of investments in infrastructure and settlements. This requires actionable science and usable tools developed through multi-disciplinary efforts by scientists, co-producing them with decision agencies and communities. We give examples of different types of climate services developed with users and draw out some universal lessons learned in developing and applying them in New Zealand.

This paper aims to better understand actors involved in the generation, translation, communication and governance of agricultural climate services and their networks in Ethiopia. To achieve these o...

Global climate change in the Arctic has been unfolding more rapidly than in other parts of the world, and its impacts affect vulnerable northern ecosystems, health and well-being of the Northerners, economic sectors and infrastructure in the polar regions of the eight Arctic states. Consequences of climate change for human society are analysed in synergy with ongoing transformations in social, economic and institutional systems in the Arctic region. Their cumulative effect exposes a variety of challenges for sustainable development of the northern communities, regions and countries; it reveals a number of uncertainties in the future pathways within the transformative context, as well as a combination of risks and opportunities for societies; it requires human responses and adaptations to consequences of the Arctic change. Adaptation to climate change in combination with greenhouse gases emission reduction turns into an important component of climate policies and measures of the Arctic states. This article presents innovative results of analysis of the major trends and features in formation of adaptive governance in the Arctic. It emerges to be based on a polycentric design, and particularly, on coordination of response actions at various levels, on interactions and networks of a variety of the Arctic stakeholders, on taking into account local environmental and socio-economic contexts, on combination of multidisciplinary approaches and packaging of governance mechanisms and instruments. The study analyses the major developments and innovations in adaptation approaches, policies, and practices of the Arctic regions in N. America (Canada) and Europe (Norway). Its foci is on assessment of priorities, strategies and planning, institutions, economic instruments, climate services, application of structural measures for disaster risk reduction. It explores possibilities of regional exchange of best practices in the Arctic, and core barriers for success in implementation of adaptation policy options. The role of the Paris agreement in formation and structuring of adaptation policies and measure of the northern regions of the Arctic states is analysed.

Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns.

The review assesses the empirical knowledge base on gender-based differences in access, use and benefits from rural climate services to analyse gender equality challenges and identify pathways for ...

Interest in climate service efforts continues to grow. However, more critical analysis could enhance how well climate services align with the needs of society. Collaborations between Native American Tribes (Tribes) and Climate Science Organizations (CSOs) providing decision-support for climate change planning accentuate the potential for climate services to have social justice implications through either deepening or softening existing inequities. This paper compares 30 Tribe-affiliated and 36 CSO-affiliated individuals’ perceptions about potential harms and benefits associated with their collaborations with one another. The importance of the potential benefits of collaborations listed outweighed the potential harms listed for both groups, but while climate science organizations rated the potential benefits listed slightly higher than Tribes did, the potential harms listed were much more salient for Tribes. This finding highlights concerns that, without proper training and management, these collaborations may reinforce unequal relationships between settler and Indigenous populations. While CSOs appeared cognizant of their Tribe-affiliated colleagues’ concerns, transitioning from a focus on building trust to establishing and sustaining shared systems of responsibilities might help these collaborations meet the needs of both groups more effectively.

Stable forests – those not already significantly disturbed nor facing predictable near-future risks of anthropogenic disturbance – may play a large role in the climate solution, due to their carbon...

The current landscape of climate services represents a highly diverse and still growing range of programs, projects, and portals involved in developing and/or providing climate services at different administrative levels and spatial–temporal scales. The diversity of service producers, users, and policy arenas has created a highly heterogeneous data- and information-oriented service landscape, and the authors contend that the domain of climate services requires efforts toward agreed structures and forms of conceptualization, operationalization, and evaluation. It is proposed here that qualitative classification be applied into climate change adaptation products, services, and systems to better guide research, policy, and practice with a clear terminology and analysis framework. This differentiation allows the pinpointing of critical challenges associated with the production and application of climate-relevant information, as well as the identification of suitable metrics to assess the impact of climate services. The article concludes with recommendations to advance climate services into knowledge–action systems and increase their sustainability.

In January 2018, three leading European initiatives on climate services (CS) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiated a discussion on how the DRR community could be best served by new and emerging CS. The aim was to identify challenges and opportunities for delivery of effective operational disaster risk management and communication informed by an understanding of future climate risks. The resulting discussion engaged experts from civil protection, health, insurance, engineering and the climate service community. Discussions and subsequent reflections recognised that CS can strengthen all phases of the DRR cycle and that there are lessons to learn from experience that could enhance and demonstrate the value of CS supporting the DRR community. For this to happen, however, the supporting information should be relevant, accessible, legitimate and credible and engage both service supply and demand sides. It was also agreed that there was need for identifiable and credible champions recognised as providing leadership and focal points for the development, delivery and evaluation of CS supporting DRR. This paper summarises the identified key challenges (e.g. disconnection between CS and DRR; accessibility of relevant and quality-controlled information; understanding of information needs; and understanding the role of CS and its link to the DRR planning cycle). It also suggests taking advantage of the unique opportunities as a result of the increased coherence and mutual reinforcement across the post-2015 international agendas and the increasing recognition that links between public health and DRR can provide impetus and a focus for developing CS that support DRR.

Over the past decade, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) has emerged as a major influence on the practice of and discourse about climate services, which aim to reduce the vulnerability of society to climate-related hazards through better provision of climate information and engagement of users of climate services. Yet, there is little research into the relations, practices, and discourses produced and institutionalized through the GFCS. The treatment of vulnerability in climate services, and by the GFCS in particular, remains understudied. To address this gap, we conduct a document analysis of key GFCS reports to interrogate framings of vulnerability and examine their implications for the development and practice of climate services for adaptation. Although we see attention to vulnerability in official GFCS discourse, we find that, with a few exceptions, identifying climate vulnerabilities is largely a cursory exercise that does not meaningfully engage in the complex social processes that contribute to differential vulnerabilities. To meet its own objectives, and the larger vision of climate services, we propose that the GFCS draw upon a rich literature on vulnerability and promote the global development of climate services that considers the coupled physical and social dimensions of vulnerability and prioritizes climate services for the most vulnerable.

Adaptation planning includes contextualizing global and regional climate data within specific decision-making processes. As such, planners are increasingly interested in climate services. Climate services involve the expert production of forecasts, scenarios, economic analyses, and other data products to help users meaningfully address local changes and variabilities. For instance, in the US state of Louisiana, modelers tailor 50-year storm, precipitation, and sea level rise predictions to help planners select adaptive ecological restoration projects. Modelers do so by downscaling the data, combining it with other social and biophysical information, and framing results in terms of stakeholder interests. In this paper, I question what it means to develop adaptation information that is geared towards specific users and stakeholders. Given the growing recognition that adaptation planning can prove maladaptive, I ask, when do climate services actually exacerbate existing vulnerabilities? To answer, I draw on three cases from Louisiana’s coastal Master Plan and highlight political economic factors informing climate services: influential stakeholders, funding dynamics, the framing of planning decisions, and differential harms and benefits. I argue that when climate data is made relevant to existing interests, budgets, and plans, it can reproduce vulnerabilities and foreclose transformative adaptation. However, marginalized stakeholders can also pressure experts to contextualize data in ways that mitigate vulnerabilities. I conclude that climate services research and practice should expand user-centered approaches by asking climate services for whom and by assessing the winners and losers from climate variability, change, and adaptation actions themselves.

There has been a global trend away from delivering ‘climate information’ towards producing ‘climate services’ for decision-makers. The rationale for this shift is said to be the demand for timely and actionable climate knowledge, whilst the means of its delivery involves a shift from public good to more privatised forms of climate science. This paper identifies important implications of this shift to climate services by examining the role of consultants, drawing on an in-depth study of adaptation consultants in Australia. The role of consultants is instructive, not just because these private sector experts are engaged in climate services, but also because publicly funded climate science agencies are increasingly encouraged to behave as consulting firms do. Four imperatives of knowledge businesses—to be client-focussed, solutions-oriented, resource-efficient and self-replicating—are described. The paper argues that an emphasis on climate services shifts the incentives for climate science away from the public interest towards the ongoing pursuit of profit. There is a subsequent diversion of effort away from publicly accessible and transparent climate information to private knowledge for discrete clients. Climate services also emphasise knowledge for climate solutions as opposed to the politically charged identification of climate risks. The paper concludes with a warning that the trend towards climate services undermines the knowledge required for societies to adequately respond to the scale, speed and severity of climate change. At the heart of this issue is a climate services paradox: how to achieve customisation without exclusion.

Floods and stormwater events are the costliest natural catastrophes. Costs are expected to increase due to urbanization and climate change. Mitigation is needed. Different stakeholders with different motivations unfortunately often evaluate vulnerability by using fragmented and incomplete data sources. This paper intends to review the different approaches for collecting and analyzing data, and to evaluate their usefulness within the proposed framework for a “smart” use of data. The objectives of this work have been to review qualitatively and quantitatively a selection of Norwegian stormwater-related databases and to propose measures for improvement. The findings are seen according to the climate services literature and show that that data is spread around a heterogeneous community of stakeholders concerned with different motivations, different needs, and different levels of data processing. In general, the needs of the different stakeholders have not been surveyed and defined systematically enough and there is a substantial potential in upgrading from the delivery of passive raw data to the delivery of knowledge-driven decision-support tools. Keywords: Climate adaptation, Climate services, Databases, Stormwater management, Flooding damage databases

During the World Climate Conference-3, Capacity Development has been acknowledged as a transversal component underpinning all the other Pillars of the Global Framework for Climate Services. Within the Mediterranean basin, the interest of climate services based on seasonal climate forecasts is rising because they provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach towards water management. In 2014, the Regional Training Center (RTC) in Italy, in agreement with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and member countries of Region I and VI, identified seasonal climate forecasts as a strategic subject of capacity development for the Mediterranean Region. Following design-based research methods, this paper presents the evolution of the training approaches adopted, from classroom lessons to a blend of practical and theoretical classroom and distance learning. This evolution, as well as the rising satisfaction of trainees' expectations encouraged WMO and the RTC to widen the spectrum of beneficiaries and to make the resulting course materials available for other regions and RTCs as a course package. The course package provides essential guidelines to facilitate adoption and adaptation of the course by different institutions and instructors, including those in other WMO Regions, based on regional or institutional learning needs and standards, while also serving the needs of individual learners.

17 pages, 1 figure, 3 tables.-- Data Availability Statement: The data analyzed in this study are subject to the following licenses/restrictions: Requests to access datasets related to this publication should be directed to caroline.cusack@marine.ie, This paper discusses the conceptual and methodological challenges to co-developing high-quality and transferable knowledge to understand and manage harmful algal bloom (HAB) risks as part of adaptation to changing aquatic ecosystems in Europe. Global HAB-climate change research efforts to date have focused on enhancing the credibility of scientific knowledge by conducting basic scientific research aimed at understanding the physical and biogeochemical drivers and mechanisms shaping HAB dynamics in order to predict their occurrence and prevent their societal and ecological impacts. However, the rapid and interconnected changes occurring in marine ecosystems worldwide necessitate a simultaneous shift toward enhancing the salience, legitimacy, usefulness, and usability of this knowledge for decision-making. To address this need, we present and discuss empirical findings from the marine-focused CoCliME project, which set out to co-develop user-oriented climate services to support HAB risk mitigation and adaptation in European coastal regions. We present lessons learned in relation to four areas of project implementation, across five regional cases, that emerged as essential for enhancing the quality of knowledge for managing HAB-climate risks: (1) Engaging stakeholders to understand their knowledge, experiences, interests and concerns; (2) Co-developing a shared terminology and framing of the “HAB-related problems”; (3) Advancing scientific understanding of drivers and interactions shaping HAB-climate risks and; (4) Co-producing prototype services that integrate social and HAB-climate data and knowledge to support decision-making. We find that efforts to reduce scientific knowledge gaps and uncertainties about HAB-climate linkages (efforts to enhance credibility), while important, risk overlooking key aspects of knowledge co-production and application that are necessary to render this knowledge more salient, legitimate, useful, and usable. Understanding the multi-risk decision-making context within which societal stakeholders appraise HAB and climate change risks and approaching knowledge co-production as a learning process, are vital lessons learned in this respect. Drawing on project learning, we highlight key priorities for enhancing the societal relevance and impact of HABs-climate research during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, Project CoCliME is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by EPA (IE), ANR (FR), BMBF (DE), UEFISCDI (RO), RCN (NO), and FORMAS (SE), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). CoCliME is endorsed by the International Programme of IOC UNESCO and SCOR GlobalHAB (www.globalhab.info). [...] EB received institutional support from the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S)

Snow and ice control programs are critical for the efficiency and safety of transportation systems in all winter climates. Tools that help road authorities plan for, assess, and communicate the relationship between climate and winter road maintenance (WRM) activities are needed. There is increasing evidence that the development of such Climate Services (CS) tools is an iterative, evolving, and long-term process between the producers and users of this climate information, which increases the usability and application of climate science. This paper presents a case study describing the co-production of a climate translation service for a Canadian road authority. The purpose of this study is to: 1) refine an existing Winter Severity Index (WSI) to better understand how winter weather translates into inter-annual variations in WRM activities using publicly available data; 2) apply the index to historical weather observations to assess the magnitude and significance of historical winter weather trends, and 3) apply the index to modelled climate data to project the impacts of climate change on WRM operations in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that the WSI for Ontario highways has strong fit with maintenance activity, when measured as equipment-hours. Analysis of WRM trends over more than three decades shows that winter severity has increased in some areas and decreased in others. The climate change analysis reveals that winters will experience a reduction in winter severity into the coming century.

Monsoon precipitation demonstrates a wide range of spatial and temporal variability in the U.S. Southwest. A variety of precipitation monitoring networks, including official networks, municipal flood control districts, and citizen science observers, can help improve our characterization and understanding of the monsoon. The data management challenges of integrating these diverse data sources can be formidable. Computer science and data management techniques provide a pathway for the design of forward looking climate services, especially those developed in collaboration with experts in this field. In this paper we present such a collaboration, integrating natural, social and computer science expertise. We document how we identified data networks and their sources and the computer science and data management workflow we employed to integrate and curate these data. We also present the web based data visualization tool and API that we developed as part of this process (monsoon.environment.arizona.edu). We use case study examples from the Tucson, AZ region to demonstrate the visualizer. We also discuss how this type of collaboration could be extended to existing or potential stakeholder collaborations, as we facilitate access to a curated set of data that gives an increasingly granular perspective on monsoon precipitation variability. We also discuss what this collaborative approach integrating natural, social and computer science perspectives can add to the evolution of climate services.

Adaptation to climate change is becoming more urgent, but the wealth of knowledge that informs adaptation planning and decision-making is not used to its full potential. Top-down approaches to knowledge production are identified as one important reason for the gap between science and practice and are criticized for not meeting the needs of intended users. In response to this challenge, there is a growing interest in the creation of user-oriented and actionable climate services to support adaptation. At the same time, recent research suggests that greater efforts are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of knowledge co-production processes and the best criteria by which to gauge the quality of knowledge outcomes, while also considering different stakeholder perspectives. This paper explores these issues through a critical assessment of the quality of knowledge for adaptation generated from a climate services co-design process in two case studies in Sweden. The study draws on experiences from a 5-year research collaboration in which natural and social science researchers, together with local stakeholders, co-designed climate services to support climate adaptation planning and decision-making. The well-established knowledge quality criteria of credibility, legitimacy, saliency, usability, and usefulness remain relevant, but are not sufficient to capture factors relating to whether and how the knowledge actually is applied by climate change adaptation planners and decision-makers. We observe that case-specific circumstances beyond the scope of the co-design process, including the decision-making context as well as non-tangible outcomes, also play crucial roles that should be accounted for in the knowledge assessment processes. Funding: HazardSupport: Risk-based decision support for adaptation to future natural hazards was funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (grant number 2015-3631) and has benefited from collaborations with the City of Stockholm, and Karlstad Municipality.

Climate observations, research, and models are used extensively to help understand key processes underlying changes to the climate on a range of time scales from months to decades, and to investigate and describe possible longer-term future climates. The knowledge generated serves as a scientific basis for climate services that are provided with the aim of tailoring information for decision-makers and policy-makers. Climate models and climate services are crucial elements for supporting policy and other societal actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and for making society better prepared and more resilient to climate-related risks. We present recommendations for future research topics for climate modeling and for climate services. These recommendations were produced by a group of experts in climate modeling and climate services, selected based on their individual leadership roles or participation in international activities. The recommendations were reached through extensive analysis, consideration and discussion of current and desired research capabilities, and wider engagement and refinement of the recommendations was achieved through a targeted workshop of initial recommendations and an open meeting at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly. The findings emphasize how research and innovation activities in the fields of climate modeling and climate services can contribute to improving climate knowledge and information with saliency for users in order to enhance capacity to transition to a sustainable and resilient society. The findings are relevant worldwide but are deliberately intended to influence the European Commission’s next major multi-annual framework program of research and innovation over the period 2021–27. This work was conducted under the Climateurope project funded by the European Commission through the Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation: Grant Agreement 689029. We would like to acknowledge the European Commission for wanting to have the recommendations, and the following experts who contributed their time and ideas through workshops and discussions: Mario Acosta, Dragana Bojovic, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Carlo Buontempo, Markus Donat, Eric Hoa, Bart van den Hurk, Daniela Jacob, Colin Jones, Filip Lefebre,Jaroslav Mysiak, Slobodan Nickovic, Steffen M. Olsen, Mark Payne, Adriaan Perrels, Joeri Rogelj, Doug Smith, Roger Street, Jean-Noel Thepaut, Alberto Troccoli, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ilaria Vigo. We also would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers.

This paper extends the work of previous research by investigating surfing practices and surf-recreation companies from a behavioral perspective. The study’s main aim is to gain insights into the role of meteorological/climatological information in decision-making related to the surf-tourism activities market. This information was gathered employing an online survey that asked respondents about where they surf and how they check forecasts for surfing. Climate services (CS) are promoted to support the decision-making process to better prepare for and adapt to the risks and opportunities of climate variability and change. The current market for CS is still in its early stages. In this paper, we report the findings from our recent investigation into the actual and potential market for CS for the Iberian Peninsula surf-tourism sector. Based on surfers’ and surf companies’ demands, it was found that an improved surfing climate service (herein, SCS) will have clear implications in the management of these tourism areas and provide insights into whether surfing activities may be successful. At the same time, such services can help to manage adaptive actions in regard to the impacts of climate change in surfing areas.

The mitigation of losses due to extreme climate events and long-term climate adaptation requires climate informed decision-making. In the past few decades, several remote sensing and modeled-based Earth observations (EOs) have been developed to provide an unprecedented global overview and routine monitoring of climate and its impacts on vegetation and hydrologic conditions, with the goal of supporting informed decision-making. However, their usage in decision-making is particularly limited in climate-risk vulnerable and in situ data-scarce regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, due to lack of access to EOs. Here, we describe the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX), which was developed to address this crucial limitation and facilitate the application of EOs in decision-making, particularly in the food and water-insecure regions of the world. First, the EWX's core framework, which includes (i) the Viewer, (ii) GeoEngine, and (iii) Support Applications, is described. Then, a comprehensive overview of the Viewer, which is a web-based interface used to access EOs, is provided. This includes a description of (i) the maps and associated features to access gridded EO data and anomalies for different temporal averaging periods, (ii) time series graphs and associated features to access EOs aggregated over polygons such as administrative boundaries, and (iii) commonly used EOs served by the EWX that provide assessments of climate and vegetation conditions. Next, examples are provided to demonstrate how EWX can be used to monitor development, progression, spatial extent, and severity of climate-driven extreme events to support timely decisions related to mitigation of food insecurity and flooding impacts. Finally, the value of a regional implementation of EWX at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) in Nairobi, Kenya, is highlighted. Regional implementation of the EWX facilitates access to regionally focused EOs and their availability at polygon boundaries most relevant to the local decision-makers. Similar instances of EWX implemented in other regions, especially those susceptible to food and water security, will likely further enhance the application of EOs for informed decision-making.

Cities, regions and countries are increasingly adapting to climate change. Adaptation approaches often build on disaster management activities to deal with climate extremes and make improvements to already existing systems to prepare for climate change, e.g., through water engineering or cooling existing buildings. But ideally, adaptation strategies aim also at tackling the root causes of climate risks through broader sustainable development pathways. Such transformational approaches, however, are still in their infancy. In this perspective paper we argue that there is a lack of guidance to support policy-makers to develop transformational adaptation strategies. There is a need and opportunity to develop climate services that support transformational adaptation. We explore how climate services can support transformational adaptation, drawing from literature, practical experience and illustrative examples. We identify four knowledge requirements: (1) system knowledge to identify the root causes and solutions; (2) inspirational and cross-disciplinary knowledge to develop a long-term vision; (3) a clear climate message and guiding principles to mainstream the vision; and (4) design principles that are connected to the priorities and interests of the stakeholders. We conclude that developing climate services for transformational adaptation involves a delicate process of simplifying and aggregating climate knowledge, as well as integrating it with knowledge about the physical, economic and social systems of cities and regions. This means that climate service providers need to widen their scope and skills, and collaborate with experts in the fields urban planning, landscape architecture, ecology, health, and sociology.

This study examined ways in which climate information was mobilized for use under Future Climate for Africa (FCFA), an applied research program to improve the use of medium term (5-40 year) climate information in policies and planning in sub-Saharan Africa. Past research has underscored the interdependent relationship between user engagement and knowledge mobilization in effective climate knowledge uptake. Following existing frameworks for user engagement and knowledge mobilization, we undertook document analysis of 46 program outputs and semi-structured interviews with 13 FCFA researchers to contrast user-centred and knowledge-centred approaches, embedded within co-production principles, to effectively mobilize climate information uptake for use. A total of 20 knowledge mobilization tools and approaches were identified across the program, which map onto four categories. This analysis revealed a complex interplay between user engagement and knowledge mobilization processes, which sheds light on a strategic or flexible use and re-use of knowledge products as the user engagement process evolved. These findings have important implications for future programmatic design and planning in promoting engagement and mobilization approaches that can contribute to long-term policy and decision-making.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is leading to increasingly erratic weather patterns that challenge farming practices, particularly for smallholder farmers. Preparing farmers for these changes and increasing their resilience to extreme weather events is critical for food security in areas where populations are increasing. The El Niño event of 2015/16 led to drought conditions in Malawi which are expected to become more normal in the future. This resulted in widespread crop failure and the need for external food aid. The experiences of Malawian farmers during this time creates an opportunity to identify areas where adaptations in land management practices as part of resilience building initiatives can prepare farmers for future climates. This paper presents results of household surveys and interviews of 201 farmers from a case study in southern Malawi. Half of the farmers surveyed practice Conservation Agriculture (CA), a Climate Smart Agriculture technology that increased resilience to this drought event. The majority of households relied on agriculture for all their livelihood streams, indicating that diversification away from sole dependence on agriculture would increase resilience. Our study shows that poorer, female farmers are less likely to practice CA than wealthier male farmers. Results also illustrate that while farmers had access to seasonal weather forecasts, a key tool to guide land preparation and planting, they remained reluctant to believe them or to amend cropping or land management practices. Agricultural extension services within Malawi can play a vital role in preparing farmers for future extreme weather events and ensuring forecast communication link to predicted agricultural impacts and land management actions for building resilience into agricultural systems. Extension services need to focus on supporting poorer female farmers to adopt CA practices and providing farmers with the tools and knowledge to respond effectively to seasonal and sub-seasonal climate information.

Climate services have climbed high on the agenda of EU research policy, yet few contributions have reflected on the actual usability of climate services from the perspectives of the intended users, let alone the implications for future EU research and innovation policy. This commentary reflects on four key lessons learnt from engagement in climate services research projects and discusses implications for future EU research policy: i) all end-users have pre-established decision-making processes and tools for their purposes, hence all new information needs to be adapted ii) one size fits none – and tailoring takes time iii) building trust between different actors, processes and confidence in new information is key in the tailoring process – and resource-demanding iv) purveyors and intermediaries can facilitate tailoring processes but need to finance their activities until end-users demonstrate willingness to pay and/or the climate service is readily implemented. The main argument is that more attention needs to be paid to the demand-side of climate services to help viable climate services make it through the innovation “valley of death” – that is, the twilight zone between technical invention and (commercially) successful innovation. EU Research and Innovation (R&I) funding streams and policies for establishing truly transdisciplinary learning loops driven by (actual) user needs can function as vehicles through the valley of death. This research was funded by the EU Horizon 2020 program under grant agreement number 776787.

This work discusses the ability of a bias-adjustment method using empirical quantile mapping to improve the skills of seasonal forecasts over Europe for three key climate variables, i.e., temperature, precipitation and wind speed. In particular, the suitability of the approach to be integrated in climate services and to provide tailored predictions for local applications was evaluated. The workflow was defined in order to allow a flexible implementation and applicability while providing accurate results. The scheme adjusted monthly quantities from the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) by using ERA5 reanalysis as reference. Raw and adjusted forecasts were verified through several metrics analyzing different aspects of forecast skills. The applied method reduced model biases for all variables and seasons even though more limited improvements were obtained for precipitation. In order to further assess the benefits and limitations of the procedure, the results were compared with those obtained by the ADAMONT method, which calibrates daily quantities by empirical quantile mapping conditioned by weather regimes. The comparable performances demonstrated the overall suitability of the proposed method to provide end users with calibrated predictions of monthly and seasonal quantities.

Improved weather and climate forecast information services are important to sustain small-scale crop production in many developing countries. Previous studies recognized the value of integrating local forecasting knowledge (LFK) with scientific forecasting knowledge (SFK) to support farmers’ decision-making. Yet, little work has focused on proper documentation, quality verification, and integration techniques. The skills of local and scientific forecasts were compared, and new integration approaches were derived over the coastal zone of Ghana. LFK indicators were documented, and farmers were trained to collect indicators’ observations and record rainfall in real time using digital tools and rain gauges, respectively, in 2019. Dichotomous forecasts verification metrics were then used to verify the skills of both local and scientific forecasts against rainfall records. Farmers use a diverse set of LKF indicators for both weather and seasonal climate time-scale predictions. LFK indicators are mainly used to predict rainfall occurrence, amount of seasonal rainfall, dry spell occurrence, and onset and cessation of the rainy season. The average skill of a set of LFK indicators in predicting one-day rainfall is higher than individual LFK indicators. Also, the skills of a set of LFK indicators can potentially be higher than the forecasts given by the Ghana Meteorological Agency for the Ada District. The results of the documentation and skills indicate that approaches and methods developed for integrating LFK and SFK can contribute to increasing forecast resolution and skills and reducing recurring tensions between the two knowledge systems. Future research and application of these methods can help improve weather and climate information services in Ghana.

The current challenges that society faces call for actions fostering climate change adaptation and long-term sustainability grounded in effective policies. Consequently, to raise environmental resilience and sustain human wellbeing, we need to overhaul the policy-making process towards a ‘holistic approach’. The nexus approach has proven a valuable tool for identifying gaps and incoherencies in current policies, for understanding major interlinkages across sectors and scales, and for promoting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Nevertheless, a ‘silo approach’ to decision making currently prevails, thus achieving cross-sectoral and cross-scale harmonization still remains a challenge in policy-making. In response to this challenge, the next step in the science–policy–practice interface is to integrate the nexus approach in the ‘climate services’ arena, in order to support integrated policies. Climate services embody a bridge between researchers and stakeholders, and by supporting integrated policies they will ensure synergies between sectors and scales, reduce potential trade-offs, and enable co-benefits.

Rice farmers in Northern Ghana are susceptible to climate variability and change with its effects in the form of drought, water scarcity, erratic rainfall and high temperatures. In response, farmers resort to weather and seasonal forecast to manage uncertainties in decision-making. However, there is limited empirical research on how forecast lead time and probabilities influence farmer decision-making. In this study, we posed the overall question: how do rice farmers respond to forecast information with different probabilities and lead times? We purposively engaged 36 rice farmers (12 rainfed, 12 irrigated and 12 practising both) in Visually Facilitated Scenario Mapping Workshops (VFSMW) to explore how probabilities and lead times inform their decision-making. Results of the VFSMW showed rainfed rice farmers are most sensitive to forecast probabilities because of their over-reliance on rainfall. Also, an increase in forecast probability does not necessarily mean farmers will act. The decision to act based on forecast probability is dependent on the stage of the farming cycle. Also, seasonal forecast information provided at a 1 month lead time significantly informed farmer decision-making compared to a lead time of 2 or 3 months. Also, weather forecast provided at a lead time of 1 week is more useful for decision-making than at a 3 day or 1 day lead time. We conclude that communicating forecast information with their probabilities and at an appropriate lead time has the potential to help farmers manage risks and improve decision-making. We propose that climate services in Northern Ghana should aim at communicating weather and seasonal climate forecast information at 1 week and 1 month lead times respectively. Farmers should also adapt their decisions to the timing and probabilities of the forecast provided.

Early warning systems (EWSs) have been developed to trigger timely action to disasters, yet persistent humanitarian crises resulting from hazards such as drought indicate that these systems need improvements. We focus our research on the county of Turkana in Kenya, where drought repeatedly results in humanitarian crises, especially with regard to food insecurity. Focusing on the key elements of the Kenyan EWS, we ask two questions: firstly, what indicators, especially meteorological drought indicators, are used in the national biannual assessments conducted by the Kenyan National Drought Management Authority and monthly drought bulletins for Turkana? Secondly, are there differences in the methodology used for analysis of meteorological indicators in the different documents? Firstly, by utilizing a food systems framework, we conduct qualitative content analysis of the use of indicators in the documents, secondly, we analyze rainfall data and its use. The EWS relies primarily on food availability indicators, with less focus for food access and utilization. The biannual assessments and the country bulletins use different sets of rainfall data and different methodologies for establishing the climate normal, leading to discrepancies in the output of the EWS. We recommend further steps to be taken towards standardization of methodologies and cooperation between various institutions to ensure streamlining of approaches.

Climate services have advanced significantly, evolving from primarily supply-side, top-down, one-size-fits-all approaches to a recognition of the need to support a unique and evolving community of decision makers and decision contexts. However, investments in climate services have not kept pace with the increasing need for evidence-based actions, and the need for “trusted relationships” between consumers and producers of those services may actually be slowing progress at a time when there is an increasing need to scale up from individual decisions to system-wide adaptation and resilience. In the meantime, recognition of the linkages between adaptation actions and the broader sustainable development agenda require an expansion of the concept of climate services from its historically narrow focus on the use of climate science for impact assessments and adaptation to that required to deliver a broader set of societal benefits based on increasing capacity to manage climate and other risks. A “next generation approach” is justified by the complexity and inter-relatedness of climate issues, the broad range of societal challenges, the scope of required actions, the rate at which adaptation and resilience challenges are emerging, and the range of data, tools and methods required. An approach based on transformational relationship-and capacity-building, which is capable of drawing on and informing science, service and practice is needed. Working at the science-to-service-to-practice interfaces to enable delivery of services aimed at informing action at scale will require new ways of collecting, analysing and using information and data about the effectiveness of climate actions in particular contexts.

Wider applications of climate services within the management of climate risks face significant challenges. This paper presents a forecasting approach, to assess the development trends in climate service needs and thereby potential demand in key sectors that are essential to the green solution and will face a general growth in activity and key climate vulnerabilities towards 2050. These sectors are renewable energy, international climate finance, and cities. The geographical scope focuses on Europe, but global trends are included. We here suggest scenarios for growth in future climate services based on baseline development trends and policy scenarios reflecting future low-emission and SDG targets. Barriers and specific needs for climate service development within these sectors are discussed, and alignment of supply and demand within the climate service market is particularly emphasized. We find that several complexities influence the climate service market, including policy frameworks aimed at facilitating climate risk management as well as a lack of fit between the supply and demand sides of the market. Other barriers include uncertainties related to available climate information and socioeconomic climate risk information. Based on the forecasting, we find that substantial benefits can be seen with increased climate service development and deployment across the three sectors.

The Sahel region is considered a hotspot for climate change hazards and vulnerability of weather reliant sectors, including agriculture. Farmers in Burkina Faso have a long history of adapting their farming activities to frequent changes in climate. Using 150 in-person surveys, this study assesses farmers&rsquo, perceptions of climate change based on multiple climate variables, and reviews adaptation practices, including soil and water conservation strategies, in the Soudanian, Soudano-Sahelian, and Sahelian agroclimatic zones of Burkina Faso. In general, farmers are aware of changing climatic conditions, including increased temperatures, greater rainfall variability, heavier precipitation events, delayed onset, and premature offset of the rainy season. However, farmers perceive shifts in climate differently depending on their location and agroclimatic zone. As a result, different adaption strategies are implemented by farmers according to the climatic, societal, and economic context. Survey results show that in the Sahel, climate adaptation strategies rely on traditional knowledge and experimental approaches, whereas in the Soudanian zone, where weather conditions are more favorable for agriculture, adaptation practices are market oriented. These regional differences are important for targeting advisory services, planning processes, and decision-making to support the effective provision of weather and climate information services to the last mile.

This study presents, for the first time, a comprehensive characterization of the surf spots around the Iberian Peninsula and provides surfers and stakeholders an evaluation of the expected surfing days per year on each region and spot. The provision of this climate information can help to decision-making and limit the economic and social damages caused by climate-related disasters. This product aligns with the concept of climate services, increasingly requested to help economic activities to achieve optimal performances. We employ use in our study of two sources of data: meteorological buoys (Redcos, Redex and Costeira) and citizen science data, specifically information mined from surfers reanalyzed, namely the information contained in the Glassy app for smartphones (GAC &amp, GAS). The surf spots are characterized using bottom type, surf break type and optimal wind (Owd) and optimal swell direction (Osd). Then, we define a surfing day as the ones in which optimal swell direction and waves bigger than 0.9 m occur, using three parameters mean swell direction (Dmd), significant wave height (Hm0) and optimal swell direction for each surf spot (Osd) and compute the expected frequency of surfing days per year. Once this is done, we attempt to validate the approach taken to characterize a surfing day using buoys parameters (Hm0, Hmax, Tp and Dmd) and information about actual surf sessions for a small subset of our spots (i.e., Costa Tarragona). Our findings confirm that the area of western shore is the best suited for surfing, with over 300 days/year, followed by northern shore (300, 200 days/year) and southern and southeastern shores (&lt, 100 days/year). We expect that these values may modestly contribute to a climate-informed planning and management of the surfing activities.

Climate services have been criticised in the past for their tendency to only disseminate results from climate research, rather than to seek to understand and tailor to the needs of their target audiences. Two surveys have been conducted within two projects, ISIpedia and CLIMAP, to assess users’ needs for climate and climate impacts information of all countries (with a foremost focus on West Africa) and for Senegal. The joint analysis of the results showed that climate and climate-impact information is very relevant for West African respondents’ activities but a number of barriers prevent existing climate services from fully fulfilling the role they could play in this respect. Consistently across both surveys, the respondents highlighted the irrelevance or the incompleteness of the information that current climate services provide, which is mostly related to the lack of high-resolution information or high uncertainties, as the biggest barriers. Both surveys showed that the lack of training to understand the provided information is also an important barrier, which calls for the organisation of capacity-building activities to ensure the uptake of the information by their target audiences. Overall, the survey responses demonstrated the importance of stakeholder engagement to ensure the usefulness of climate services in West Africa. In addition, appropriate integration of the existing climate services within the national contexts as well as their dissemination within the ecosystem of information portals and products appear to be essential to ensure their effectiveness.