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Recent waste rock pile designs have been proposed to incorporate a fine-grained layer to create a capillary barrier to prevent surface water from draining into the pile interior. This study analyses active fibre optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) as a tool to measure the effectiveness a capillary barrier system following an infiltration test. A laboratory waste rock column was built with anorthosite waste rock overlain by sand. Volumetric water content is calculated during heat cycles lasting 15 min powered at 15 W/m in the column. A new algorithm is employed to circumvent several requirements for soil specific calibration. The inferred moisture contents were verified by soil moisture probes located adjacent to the cable. The FO-DTS data indicate, at vertical resolutions up to 2 cm, that water is retained in the sand and does not drain into the anorthosite following the infiltration test. The coefficient of determination, R2, between the inferred and measured volumetric water content in the fine cover sand layer is 0.90, while the screened anorthosite maintained an R2 of 0.94 with constant moisture content throughout the test. This study will ultimately help guide future waste rock storage design initiatives incorporating fibre optic sensors, leading to improved environmental mine waste management.

Understanding the interactions between ground freeze-thaw, groundwater flow, and solute transport is imperative for evaluating the fate of contaminants in permafrost regions. However, predicting solute migration in permafrost-affected groundwater systems is challenging due to the inherent interactions and coupling between subsurface mass and energy transport processes. To this end, we developed a numerical model that considers coupled groundwater flow, subsurface heat transfer, and solute transport, including water-ice phase change, solute-dependent porewater freezing, and temperature-dependent solute reaction rates. As an illustrative example, we present simulations to investigate the potential for contamination from a municipal wastewater lagoon in the Canadian sub-arctic. Two-dimensional groundwater models assuming varying permafrost conditions were developed to evaluate possible contaminant migration scenarios associated with groundwater flow from the lagoon to a river, including the transport of conservative, degradable, and sorbing solutes. Model results reveal important transport mechanisms controlling the behavior of aqueous contaminants in permafrost landscapes as well as the hydrogeologic factors affecting reactive transport in cold regions. Seasonal freeze-thaw episodically restricts connectivity of transport pathways, which attenuates both transport and reaction rates. However, elevated solute concentrations can depress the freezing temperature of porewater and produce thaw-induced solute transport. Both thermally driven and solute-enhanced thaw can decrease ice content in permafrost, which can have significant implications for solute migration. Therefore, thermo-hydrogeologic process controlling reactive transport in cold-region groundwater systems must be considered when quantitatively assessing the impact of changing environmental conditions on contaminant hydrogeology.

As permafrost thaws in the Arctic, new subsurface pathways open for the transport of groundwater, energy, and solutes. We identify different ways that these subsurface changes are driving observed surface consequences, including the potential for increased contaminant transport, modification to water resources, and enhanced rates of infrastructure (e.g. buildings and roads) damage. Further, as permafrost thaws it allows groundwater to transport carbon, nutrients, and other dissolved constituents from terrestrial to aquatic environments via progressively deeper subsurface flow paths. Cryohydrogeology, the study of groundwater in cold regions, should be included in northern research initiatives to account for this hidden catalyst of environmental and societal change.

Global social and economic changes, alongside climate change, are affecting the operating environment for agriculture, leading to efforts to increase production and yields, typically through the use of agrochemicals like pesticides and fertilizers, expanded irrigation, and changes in seed varieties. Intensification, alongside the expansion of agriculture into new areas, has increased harvest, but has also had numerous well-known impacts on the environment, ultimately resulting in a loss of resilience and lack of sustainability in agro-ecosystems. Combined with features of agricultural systems such as the differential movement of ecosystem services, and interactions among ecosystem services driven in part by management choices, such intensification has disrupted key feedbacks in agricultural systems. These changes have tended to perpetuate the management choices that have led to efficient, productive agriculture, often at the expense of nature and the provision of important nonfood ecosystem services. Here, we explore how agriculture functions as a complex adaptive system. We assess how recent changes have interacted with agro-ecosystem features to result in a loss of resilience, and suggest key research directions to help harmonize production and ecosystem function, drawing primarily on Canadian examples. Enhancing the resilience of agricultural landscapes is critical to the long-term sustainability of agriculture in a rapidly changing world.

Reliably quantifying groundwater fluxes to and from confined aquifers in sedimentary basins is increasingly recognized as a critical challenge that impedes sustainable groundwater management. One approach to quantify such fluxes is through the analysis of deep (e.g., >50 m) borehole thermal profiles penetrating through aquifer-aquitard systems. Recently developed methods to interpret such data exploit the relationship between vertical groundwater flow and the downward propagation of surface temperature disturbances resulting from climate warming. In this note, we advance beyond prior studies that assumed steady-state groundwater flow by demonstrating how hydrogeological regime shifts on decadal time scales can be quantitatively inferred from temperature-depth profiles (TDPs). We use a set of repeated temperature-depth profiles from one site in an unconsolidated sedimentary aquifer system, recorded in 1980 and 2016/2018 to tentatively infer a minimum of a threefold increase in groundwater downwelling to deeper aquifers (i.e., from 100 to 350 mm/year). The enhanced flux likely results from intensified, deep groundwater abstraction in the vicinity since the mid-1980s. We reach this conclusion through analyzing the occurrence and downward propagation of the minimum temperature in the profiles as well as the temporal trend in deeper groundwater temperatures. We conclude that repeated temperature-depth profiles can be suitable to archive hydrogeological changes. Our results provide the impetus for more systematic collection of present-day TDPs to provide a historical benchmark from which to assess future groundwater flow alterations, especially in areas that lack traditional aquifer monitoring via hydraulic head measurements.

Numerical models of permafrost evolution in porous media typically rely upon a smooth continuous relation between pore ice saturation and sub-freezing temperature, rather than the abrupt phase change that occurs in pure media. Soil scientists have known for decades that this function, known as the soil freezing curve (SFC), is related to the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) for unfrozen soils due to the analogous capillary and sorptive effects experienced during both soil freezing and drying. Herein we demonstrate that other factors beyond the SFC-SWCC relationship can influence the potential range over which pore water phase change occurs. In particular, we provide a theoretical extension for the functional form of the SFC based upon the presence of spatial heterogeneity in both soil thermal conductivity and the freezing point depression of water. We infer the functional form of the SFC from many abrupt-interface 1-D numerical simulations of heterogeneous systems with prescribed statistical distributions of water and soil properties. The proposed SFC paradigm extension has the appealing features that it (1) is determinable from measurable soil and water properties, (2) collapses into an abrupt phase transition for homogeneous media, (3) describes a wide range of heterogeneity within a single functional expression, and (4) replicates the observed hysteretic behavior of freeze-thaw cycles in soils.

The thermal regimes of alpine streams remain understudied and have important implications for cold-water fish habitat which is expected to decline due to climatic warming. Previous research has focused on the effects of distributed energy fluxes and meltwater from snowpacks and glaciers on the temperature of mountain streams. This study presents the effects of the groundwater spring discharge from an inactive rock glacier containing little ground ice on the temperature of an alpine stream. Rock glaciers are coarse blocky landforms that are ubiquitous in alpine environments and typically exhibit low groundwater discharge temperatures and resilience to climatic warming. Water temperature data indicate that the rock glacier spring cools the stream by an average of 3°C during July and August and reduces maximum daily temperatures by an average of 5°C during the peak temperature period of the first two weeks in August, producing a cold-water refuge downstream of the spring. The distributed stream surface and streambed energy fluxes are calculated for the reach along the toe of the rock glacier, and solar radiation dominates the distributed stream energy budget. The lateral advective heat flux generated by the rock glacier spring is compared to the distributed energy fluxes over the study reach, and the spring advective heat flux is the dominant control on stream temperature at the reach scale. This study highlights the potential for coarse blocky landforms to generate climatically-resilient cold-water refuges in alpine streams.

Temperature can be used to trace groundwater flows due to thermal disturbances of subsurface advection. Prior hydrogeological studies that have used temperature-depth profiles to estimate vertical groundwater fluxes have either ignored the influence of climate change by employing steady-state analytical solutions or applied transient techniques to study temperature-depth profiles recorded at only a single point in time. Transient analyses of a single profile are predicated on the accurate determination of an unknown profile at some time in the past to form the initial condition. In this study, we use both analytical solutions and a numerical model to demonstrate that boreholes with temperature-depth profiles recorded at multiple times can be analyzed to either overcome the uncertainty associated with estimating unknown initial conditions or to form an additional check for the profile fitting. We further illustrate that the common approach of assuming a linear initial temperature-depth profile can result in significant errors for groundwater flux estimates. Profiles obtained from a borehole in the Veluwe area, Netherlands in both 1978 and 2016 are analysed for an illustrative example. Since many temperature-depth profiles were collected in the late 1970s and 1980s, these previously profiled boreholes represent a significant and underexploited opportunity to obtain repeat measurements that can be used for similar analyses at other sites around the world.

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long-term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km2) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity-based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (−38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (−22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.

Quantifying groundwater fluxes to and from deep aquifers or shallow sediment is a critical task faced by researchers and practitioners from many environmental science disciplines including hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, climatology, and oceanography. Groundwater discharge to inland and coastal water bodies influences their water budgets, thermal regimes, and biogeochemistry. Conversely, downward water flow from the land surface or from surface water bodies to underlying aquifers represents an important water flux that must be quantified for sustainable groundwater management. Because these vertical subsurface flows are slow and typically diffuse, they cannot be measured directly and must rather be estimated using groundwater tracers. Heat is a naturally occurring groundwater tracer that is ubiquitous in the subsurface and readily measured. Most of the academic literature has focused on groundwater temperature tracing methods capitalizing on the propagation of diel temperature sine waves into sediment beneath surface water bodies. Such methods rely on temperature–time series to infer groundwater fluxes and are typically only viable in the shallow subsurface and in locations with focused groundwater fluxes. Alternative methods that utilize temperature–depth profiles are applicable across a broader range of hydrologic environments, and point‐in‐time measurements can be quickly taken to cover larger spatial scales. Applications of these methods have been impeded due in part to the lack of understanding regarding their potential applications and limitations. Herein, we highlight relevant theory, thermal data collection techniques, and recent diverse field applications to stimulate further multidisciplinary uptake of thermal groundwater tracing methods that rely on temperature–depth profiles.

Freshwater lenses underlying small ocean islands exhibit spatial variability and temporal fluctuations in volume, influencing ecologic management. For example, The Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge harbors one of the few surviving native stands of Pisonia grandis in the central Pacific Ocean, yet these trees face pressure from groundwater salinization, with little basic groundwater data to guide decision making. Adding to natural complexity, the geology of Palmyra was heavily altered by dredge and fill activities. Our study based at this atoll combines geophysical and hydrological field measurements from 2008 to 2019 with groundwater modeling to study the drivers of observed freshwater lens dynamics. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) field data were collected on the main atoll islands over repeat transects in 2008 following 'strong' La Niña conditions (wet) and in 2016 during 'very strong' El Niño conditions (dry). Shallow monitoring wells were installed adjacent to the geophysical transects in 2013 and screened within the fresh/saline groundwater transition zone. Temporal EMI and monitoring well data showed a strong contraction of the freshwater lens in response to El Niño conditions, and indicated a thicker lens toward the ocean side, an opposite spatial pattern to that observed for many other Pacific islands. On an outer islet where a stand of mature Pisonia trees exist, EMI surveys revealed only a thin (3 m from land surface) layer of brackish groundwater during El Niño. Numerical groundwater simulations were performed for a range of permeability distributions and climate conditions at Palmyra. Results revealed that the observed atypical lens asymmetry is likely due to more efficient submarine groundwater discharge on the lagoon side as a result of lagoon dredging and filling with high-permeability material. Simulations also predict large decreases (40%) in freshwater lens volume during dry cycles and highlight threats to the Pisonia trees, yielding insight for atoll ecosystem management worldwide.

Recent climate change has reduced the spatial extent and thickness of permafrost in many discontinuous permafrost regions. Rapid permafrost thaw is producing distinct landscape changes in the Taiga Plains of the Northwest Territories, Canada. As permafrost bodies underlying forested peat plateaus shrink, the landscape slowly transitions into unforested wetlands. The expansion of wetlands has enhanced the hydrologic connectivity of many watersheds via new surface and near-surface flow paths, and increased streamflow has been observed. Furthermore, the decrease in forested peat plateaus results in a net loss of boreal forest and associated ecosystems. This study investigates fundamental processes that contribute to permafrost thaw by comparing observed and simulated thaw development and landscape transition of a peat plateau-wetland complex in the Northwest Territories, Canada from 1970 to 2012. Measured climate data are first used to drive surface energy balance simulations for the wetland and peat plateau. Near-surface soil temperatures simulated in the surface energy balance model are then applied as the upper boundary condition to a three-dimensional model of subsurface water flow and coupled energy transport with freeze-thaw. Simulation results demonstrate that lateral heat transfer, which is not considered in many permafrost models, can influence permafrost thaw rates. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that landscape evolution arising from permafrost thaw acts as a positive feedback mechanism that increases the energy absorbed at the land surface and produces additional permafrost thaw. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow rates in local groundwater flow systems may be enhanced by the degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

Global climate models project significant changes to the air temperature and precipitation regimes in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere. These meteorological changes will have associated impacts to the surface and shallow subsurface thermal regimes, which are of interest to practitioners and researchers in many disciplines of the natural sciences. For example, groundwater temperature is critical for providing and sustaining suitable thermal habitat for cold-water salmonids. To investigate the surface and subsurface thermal effects of atmospheric climate change, seven downscaled climate scenarios (2046–2065) for a small forested catchment in New Brunswick, Canada were employed to drive the surface energy and moisture flux model, ForHyM2. Results from these seven simulations indicate that climate change-induced increases in air temperature and changes in snow cover could increase summer surface temperatures (range −0.30 to +3.49 °C, mean +1.49 °C), but decrease winter surface temperatures (range −1.12 to +0.08 °C, mean −0.53 °C) compared to the reference period simulation. Thus, changes to the timing and duration of snow cover will likely decouple changes in average annual air temperature (mean +2.11 °C) and average annual ground surface temperature (mean +1.06 °C). The projected surface temperature data were then used to drive an empirical surface to groundwater temperature transfer function developed from measured surface temperature and depth-dependent groundwater temperature. Results from the empirical transfer function indicated that the change in groundwater temperature will exhibit seasonality at shallow depths (1.5 m), but be seasonally constant and approximately equivalent to the change in the mean annual surface temperature at deeper depths (8.75 m). The increases in future groundwater temperature suggest that the thermal sensitivity of baseflow-dominated stream to decadal climate change may be greater than previous studies have indicated. The ecological significance of these findings is discussed.

Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for cold-water fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short-term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long-term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of the shallow subsurface. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, recent studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing stream surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and streambed heat fluxes. In this study, several analytical solutions to the one-dimensional unsteady advection–diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to estimate the timing and magnitude of groundwater temperature changes due to seasonal and long-term variability in land surface temperatures. Groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae suggest that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the subsurface warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, bulk aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short-term (e.g., seasonal) and long-term (e.g., multi-decadal) land surface-temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short-term air and water temperature records to project future stream warming. Suggestions are provided for implementing these formulae in stream temperature models to accommodate groundwater warming.

Submarine groundwater fluxes across the seafloor facilitate important hydrological and biogeochemical exchanges between oceans and seabed sediment, yet few studies have investigated spatially distributed groundwater fluxes in deep-ocean environments such as continental slopes. Heat has been previously applied as a submarine groundwater tracer using an analytical solution to a heat flow equation assuming steady state conditions and homogeneous thermal conductivity. These assumptions are often violated in shallow seabeds due to ocean bottom temperature changes or sediment property variations. Here heat tracing analysis techniques recently developed for terrestrial settings are applied in concert to examine the influences of groundwater flow, ocean temperature changes, and seabed thermal conductivity variations on deep-ocean sediment temperature profiles. Temperature observations from the sediment and bottom ocean water on the Scotian Slope off eastern Canada are used to demonstrate how simple thermal methods for tracing groundwater can be employed if more comprehensive techniques indicate that the simplifying assumptions are valid. The spatial distribution of the inferred groundwater fluxes on the slope suggests a downward groundwater flow system with recharge occurring over the upper-middle slope and discharge on the lower slope. We speculate that the downward groundwater flow inferred on the Scotian Slope is due to density-driven processes arising from underlying salt domes, in contrast with upward slope systems driven by geothermal convection. Improvements in the design of future submarine hydrogeological studies are proposed for thermal data collection and groundwater flow analysis, including new equations that quantify the minimum detectable flux magnitude for a given sensor accuracy and profile length.

In high-elevation, boreal and arctic regions, hydrological processes and associated water bodies can be strongly influenced by the distribution of permafrost. Recent field and modeling studies indicate that a fully-coupled multidimensional thermo-hydraulic approach is required to accurately model the evolution of these permafrost-impacted landscapes and groundwater systems. However, the relatively new and complex numerical codes being developed for coupled non-linear freeze-thaw systems require verification. This issue is addressed by means of an intercomparison of thirteen numerical codes for two-dimensional test cases with several performance metrics (PMs). These codes comprise a wide range of numerical approaches, spatial and temporal discretization strategies, and computational efficiencies. Results suggest that the codes provide robust results for the test cases considered and that minor discrepancies are explained by computational precision. However, larger discrepancies are observed for some PMs resulting from differences in the governing equations, discretization issues, or in the freezing curve used by some codes.

Observations reveal recent Arctic warming, but future societal impacts are poorly understood. Now research identifies potential abrupt thaw-driven soil moisture shifts, with consequences for northern development including more intense wildfires and rainfall.

Sustained ground surface warming on a decadal time scale leads to an inversion of thermal gradients in the upper tens of meters. The magnitude and direction of vertical groundwater flow should influence the propagation of this warming signal, but direct field observations of this phenomenon are rare. Comparison of temperature-depth profiles in boreholes in the Veluwe area, Netherlands, collected in 1978-1982 and 2016 provided such direct measurement. We used these repeated profiles to track the downward propagation rate of the depth at which the thermal gradient is zero. Numerical modeling of the migration of this thermal gradient "inflection point" yielded estimates of downward groundwater flow rates (0-0.24 m a-1) that generally concurred with known hydrogeological conditions in the area. We conclude that analysis of inflection point depths in temperature-depth profiles impacted by surface warming provides a largely untapped opportunity to inform sustainable groundwater management plans that rely on accurate estimates of long-term vertical groundwater fluxes.

In permafrost regions, the thaw depth strongly controls shallow subsurface hydrologic processes that in turn dominate catchment runoff. In seasonally freezing soils, the maximum expected frost depth is an important geotechnical engineering design parameter. Thus, accurately calculating the depth of soil freezing or thawing is an important challenge in cold regions engineering and hydrology. The Stefan equation is a common approach for predicting the frost or thaw depth, but this equation assumes negligible soil heat capacity and thus exaggerates the rate of freezing or thawing. The Neumann equation, which accommodates sensible heat, is an alternative implicit equation for calculating freeze-thaw penetration. This study details the development of correction factors to improve the Stefan equation by accounting for the influence of the soil heat capacity and non-zero initial temperatures. The correction factors are first derived analytically via comparison to the Neumann solution, but the resultant equations are complex and implicit. Explicit equations are obtained by fitting polynomial functions to the analytical results. These simple correction factors are shown to significantly improve the performance of the Stefan equation for several hypothetical soil freezing and thawing scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

International audience; The modeling of freezing and thawing of water in porous media is an area of increasing interest. Examples include the modeling of permafrost degradation due to climate change, geotechnical applications in tunneling, and borehole heat exchanger performance in cold regions. Different code implementations have been developed and an interest has arisen in benchmarking different codes with analytical solutions, experiments, and numerical results. The name for this benchmark consortium is INTERFROST. Benchmark results are shown for a 1D analytical solution and two different 2D set-ups. All compared codes exhibit a similar behavior.

Rapid permafrost thaw and precipitation regime shifts are altering surface and subsurface hydrological processes in arctic and subarctic watersheds. Long-term data (40 years) from two large permafrost watersheds in northeastern China, the Tahe River and Duobukuer River watersheds, indicate that winter baseflows are characterized by significant positive trends of 1.7% and 2.5%·year−1, respectively. Winter baseflows exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with mean annual air temperature and the thawing index, an indicator of permafrost degradation, for both watersheds, as well as the increasing annual rainfall fraction of precipitation for the Duobukuer River watershed. Winter baseflows were characterized by a breakpoint in 1989, which lagged behind the mean annual air temperature breakpoint by only two years. The statistical analyses suggest that the increases in winter baseflow are likely related to enhanced groundwater storage and winter groundwater discharge caused by permafrost thaw and are potentially also due to an increase in the wet season rainfall. These hydrological trends are first apparent in marginal areas of permafrost distribution and are expected to shift northward towards formerly continuous permafrost regions in the context of future climate warming.

Recently, there has been a revival in the development of models simulating coupled heat and water transport in cold regions. These models represent significant advances in our ability to simulate the sensitivity of permafrost environments to future climate change. However, there are considerable differences in model formulations arising from the diverse backgrounds of researchers and practitioners in this field. The variability in existing model formulations warrants a review and synthesis of the underlying theory to demonstrate the implicit assumptions and limitations of a particular approach. This contribution examines various forms of the Clapeyron equation, the relationship between the soil moisture curve and soil freezing curve, and processes for developing soil freezing curves and hydraulic conductivity models for partially frozen soils. Where applicable, results from recent laboratory tests are presented to demonstrate the validity of existing theoretical formulations. Identified variations in model formulations form the basis for briefly comparing and contrasting existing models. Several unresolved questions are addressed to highlight the need for further research in this rapidly expanding field.

Obtaining reliable estimates of vertical groundwater flows remains a challenge but is of critical importance to the management of groundwater resources. When large scale land clearing or groundwater extraction occurs, methods based on water table fluctuations or water chemistry are unreliable. As an alternative, a number of methods based on temperature-depth ( T-z ) profiles are available to provide vertical groundwater flow estimates from which recharge rates may be calculated. However, methods that invoke steady state assumptions have been shown to be inappropriate for sites that have experienced land surface warming. Analytical solutions that account for surface warming are available, but they typically include unrealistic or restrictive assumptions (e.g. no flow initial conditions or linear surface warming). Here, we use a new analytical solution and associated computer program ( FAST ) that provides flexible initial and boundary conditions to estimate fluxes using T-z profiles from the Willunga Super Science Site, a complex, but densely instrumented groundwater catchment in South Australia. T-z profiles from seven wells (ranging from high elevation to near sea level) were utilised, in addition to mean annual air temperatures at nearby weather stations to estimate boundary conditions, and thermal properties were estimated from down borehole geophysics. Temperature based flux estimates were 5 to 23 mm y − 1 , which are similar to those estimated using chloride mass balance. This study illustrates that T-z profiles can be studied to estimate recharge in environments where more commonly applied methods fail.

Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.