Search

The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest sources of sea-level rise since the early 2000s. However, basal melt has not been included explicitly in assessments of ice-sheet mass loss so far. Here, we present the first estimate of the total and regional basal melt produced by the ice sheet and the recent change in basal melt through time. We find that the ice sheet’s present basal melt production is 21.4 +4.4/−4.0 Gt per year, and that melt generated by basal friction is responsible for about half of this volume. We estimate that basal melting has increased by 2.9 ± 5.2 Gt during the first decade of the 2000s. As the Arctic warms, we anticipate that basal melt will continue to increase due to faster ice flow and more surface melting thus compounding current mass loss trends, enhancing solid ice discharge, and modifying fjord circulation., Melting at the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet is often disregarded as a source of quantifiable mass loss. In this study, the authors find the basal mass loss is equivalent to 8% of the ice sheet’s present imbalance, and that the loss of mass from basal melt is likely to increase in the future.

Camp Century is an American military base built in 1959 under the surface of the Greenland ice sheet and decommissioned in 1967. Here, we use outputs from RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models, adjusted to meteorological observations, and a firn model to simulate the firn density and temperature at Camp Century between 1966 and 2100. The model output is evaluated against an extensive set of firn 3observations and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are considered as future scenarios. Our model suggests that the upper horizon of the Camp Century debris field – observed at a depth of 32 m in 2017 – will continue to be buried by persistent net accumulation over the next eighty years under all RCP scenarios. This horizon depth will be between 58 and 64 m in 2100, depending on the RCP scenario. We estimate a maximum meltwater percolation depth of 1.1 m under all RCP scenarios. We therefore find it extremely unlikely that surface meltwater interacts with the subsurface debris field at Camp Century before 2100 under all RCP scenarios. Camp Century’s future is representative of the firn area in northwestern Greenland, bound to shift from dry snow to a percolation regime. Our model suggests that 10 m firn temperatures at Camp Century will increase from −24.0°C in 1966 to −21.3, −20.0 and −18.6°C in 2100 under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. We reveal a previously unknown warm bias in air temperatures simulated at Camp Century by both RACMO2.3p2 and CanESM2 climate models which needs to be accounted for when using these models to predict melt, firn evolution and sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet. We also present novelin situmeasurements of firn compaction rates, which indicate that about 25% of firn compaction of the top 62 m of firn occurs below 20 m depth. This highlights the importance of deep-firn compaction measurements for model evaluation and correction of altimetry products.

We present the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) Ice Velocity product (https://doi.org/10.22008/promice/data/sentinel1icevelocity/greenlandicesheet, Solgaard and Kusk, 2021), which is a time series of Greenland Ice Sheet ice velocity mosaics spanning September 2016 through to the present. The product is based on Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar data and has a 500 m grid spacing. A new mosaic is available every 12 d and spans two consecutive Sentinel-1 cycles (24 d). The product is made available within ∼ 10 d of the last acquisition and includes all possible 6 and 12 d pairs within the two Sentinel-1A cycles. We describe our operational processing chain from data selection, mosaicking, and error estimation to final outlier removal. The product is validated against in situ GPS measurements. We find that the standard deviation of the difference between satellite- and GPS-derived velocities (and bias) is 20 m yr−1 (−3 m yr−1) and 27 m yr−1 (−2 m yr−1) for the components in an eastern and northern direction, respectively. Over stable ground the values are 8 m yr−1 (0.1 m yr−1) and 12 m yr−1 (−0.6 m yr−1) in an eastern and northern direction, respectively. This is within the expected values; however, we expect that the GPS measurements carry a considerable part of this uncertainty. We investigate variations in coverage from both a temporal and spatial perspective. The best spatial coverage is achieved in winter due to the comprehensive data coverage by Sentinel-1 and high coherence, while summer mosaics have the lowest coverage due to widespread melt. The southeast Greenland Ice Sheet margin, along with other areas of high accumulation and melt, often has gaps in the ice velocity mosaics. The spatial comprehensiveness and temporal consistency make the product ideal both for monitoring and for studying ice-sheet-wide and glacier-specific ice discharge and dynamics of glaciers on seasonal scales.

We present a 1986 through 2019 estimate of Greenland Ice Sheet ice discharge. Our data include all discharging ice that flows faster than 100 m yr−1 and are generated through an automatic and adaptable method, as opposed to conventional hand-picked gates. We position gates near the present-year termini and estimate problematic bed topography (ice thickness) values where necessary. In addition to using annual time-varying ice thickness, our time series uses velocity maps that begin with sparse spatial and temporal coverage and ends with near-complete spatial coverage and twelve-day updates to velocity. The 2010 through 2019 average ice discharge through the flux-gates is ~ 487 + −49 Gt yr−1. The 10 % uncertainty stems primarily from uncertain ice bed location (ice thickness). We attribute the ~ 50 Gt yr−1 differences among our results and previous studies to our use of updated bed topography from BedMachine v3. Discharge is approximately steady from 1986 to 2000, increases sharply from 2000 to 2005, then is approximately steady again. However, regional and glacier variability is more pronounced, with recent decreases at most major glaciers and in all but one region offset by increases in the northwest region. As part of the journal's living archive option and our goal to make an operational product, all input data, code, and results from this study will be updated as needed (when new input data are available, as new features are added, or to fix bugs) and made available at doi:10.22008/promice/data/ice_discharge and at http://github.com/mankoff/ice_discharge.

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography in the interior Greenland exist, but the accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations and limiting detailed studies of flow structures and shear margins near the onset of NEGIS. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep drilling site (75°38’ N, 35°60’ W). A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers 35 km along NEGIS and 40 km across NEGIS, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a−1 within a > 10 km wide central flow band with strain rates in the order of 10−4 a−1. The strain rates increase in the shear margins by an order of magnitude, and 10–20 m deep shear margin troughs mark a zone with enhanced longitudinal stretching, transverse compression and shear. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model (ArcticDEM) and a list of satellite-based surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and precision of ~0.5 m a−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-based products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in the NEGIS ice stream when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography.

The 17 June 2017 rock avalanche in the Karrat Fjord, West Greenland, caused a tsunami that flooded the nearby village of Nuugaatsiaq and killed four people. The disaster was entirely unexpected since no previous records of large rock slope failures were known in the region, and it highlighted the need for better knowledge of potentially hazardous rock slopes in remote Arctic regions. The aim of the paper is to explore our ability to detect and locate unstable rock slopes in remote Arctic regions with difficult access. We test this by examining the case of the 17 June 2017 Karrat rock avalanche. The workflow we apply is based on a multidisciplinary analysis of freely available data comprising seismological records, Sentinel-1 spaceborne synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) data, and Landsat and Sentinel-2 optical satellite imagery, ground-truthed with limited fieldwork. Using this workflow enables us to reconstruct a timeline of rock slope failures on the coastal slope here collectively termed the Karrat Landslide Complex. Our analyses show that at least three recent rock avalanches occurred in the Karrat Landslide Complex: Karrat 2009, Karrat 2016, and Karrat 2017. The latter is the source of the abovementioned tsunami, whereas the first two are described here in detail for the first time. All three are interpreted as having initiated as dip-slope failures. In addition to the recent rock avalanches, older rock avalanche deposits are observed, demonstrating older (Holocene) periods of activity. Furthermore, three larger unstable rock slopes that may pose a future hazard are described. A number of non-tectonic seismic events confined to the area are interpreted as recording rock slope failures. The structural setting of the Karrat Landslide Complex, namely dip slope, is probably the main conditioning factor for the past and present activity, and, based on the temporal distribution of events in the area, we speculate that the possible trigger for rock slope failures is permafrost degradation caused by climate warming. The results of the present work highlight the benefits of a multidisciplinary approach, based on freely available data, to studying unstable rock slopes in remote Arctic areas under difficult logistical field conditions and demonstrate the importance of identifying minor precursor events to identify areas of future hazard.

We use remotely sensed ice velocities in combination with observations of surface elevation and glacier area change to investigate the dynamics of Hagen Bræ, North Greenland in high detail over the last 35 years. From our data, we can establish for the first time that Hagen Bræ is a surge‐type glacier with characteristics of both Alaskan‐ and Svalbard‐type surging glaciers. We argue that the observed surge was preconditioned by the glacier geometry and triggered by englacially stored meltwater. At present, the glacier is in a transitional state between active and quiescence phases and is not building up to its pre‐surge geometry. We suggest that the glacier is adjusting to the loss of its floating section, general thinning, and changes in fjord conditions that occurred over the study period which are unrelated to the surge behavior. The high temporal resolution of the ice velocity data gives insight to the sub‐annual glacier flow., Key Points Thirty‐five years of remotely sensed data document the recent dynamics and surge cycle of Hagen Bræ in high detailWe argue that the surge was preconditioned by geometry but triggered by englacially stored meltwaterThe onset of the observed surge was abrupt while its termination was gradual

Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (Larour et al., 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849–2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849–1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932–1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998–2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849–2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws.

The seasonal response to surface melting of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream outlets, Zachariae and 79N, is investigated using new highly temporally resolved surface velocity maps for 2016 combined with numerical modelling. The seasonal speed-up at 79N of 0.15km/yr is suggested to be driven by a decrease in effective basal pressure induced by surface melting, whereas for Zachariae its 0.11km/yr seasonal speed-up correlates equally well with the break-up of its large ice mélange. We investigate the influence 76km long floating tongue at 79N, finding it provides little resistance and that most of it could be lost without impacting the dynamics of the area. Furthermore, we show that reducing the slipperiness along the tongue–wall interfaces produces a velocity change spatially inconsistent with the observed seasonal speed-up. Finally, we find that subglacial sticky spots such as bedrock bumps play a negligible role in the large-scale response to a seasonally enhanced basal slipperiness of the region.

We present a new 18-year (2000 to 2018) estimate of Greenland Ice Sheet ice discharge. Our data include all ice that flows faster than 100 m yr−1 and are generated through an automatic and adaptable method, as opposed to conventional hand-picked gates. We position gates near the present-year termini and estimate problematic bed topography (ice thickness) values where necessary. In addition to using annual time-varying ice thickness, our time series uses velocity maps that begin with monthly estimates and sparse spatial coverage and ends with ~6-day estimates and near-complete spatial coverage. The recent average (2010 to 2017) ice discharge through the flux-gates is ~500 ± 50 Gt yr−1. The 10 % uncertainty stems from uncertain ice bed location (ice thickness). We attribute the ~50 Gt yr−1 differences among our results and previous studies to our use of updated bed topography from BedMachine v3. Discharge increases from 2000 to 2005, then appears approximately steady. However, regional variability is more pronounced, with decreases at all major discharging glaciers and in all but one 10 sector offset by increases in the NW sector. As part of the journal’s living archive option, all input data, code, and results from this study will be updated when new input data are accessible and made freely available at doi:10.22008/promice/data/ice_discharge.

We present a 1986 through 2017 estimate of Greenland Ice Sheet ice discharge. Our data include all discharging ice that flows faster than 100 m yr−1 and are generated through an automatic and adaptable method, as opposed to conventional hand-picked gates. We position gates near the present-year termini and estimate problematic bed topography (ice thickness) values where necessary. In addition to using annual time-varying ice thickness, our time series uses velocity maps that begin with sparse spatial and temporal coverage and end with near-complete spatial coverage and 6 d updates to velocity. The 2010 through 2017 average ice discharge through the flux gates is ∼488±49 Gt yr−1. The 10 % uncertainty stems primarily from uncertain ice bed location (ice thickness). We attribute the ∼50 Gt yr−1 differences among our results and previous studies to our use of updated bed topography from BedMachine v3. Discharge is approximately steady from 1986 to 2000, increases sharply from 2000 to 2005, and then is approximately steady again. However, regional and glacier variability is more pronounced, with recent decreases at most major glaciers and in all but one region offset by increases in the NW (northwestern) region. As part of the journal's living archive option, all input data, code, and results from this study will be updated when new input data are accessible and made freely available at https://doi.org/10.22008/promice/data/ice_discharge.

Engabreen is an outlet glacier of the Svartisen Ice Cap located in Northern Norway. It is a unique glacier due to the Svartisen Subglacial Laboratory which allows direct access to the glacier bed. In this study, we combine both sub- and supraglacial observations with ice-flow modelling in order to investigate conditions at the bed of Engabreen both spatially and temporally. We use the full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice and satellite-based surface-velocity maps from 2010 and 2014 to infer patterns of basal friction. Direct measurements of basal sliding and deformation of lower layers of the ice are used to adjust the ice viscosity and provide essential input to the setup of our model and influence the interpretation of the results. We find a clear seasonal cycle in the subglacial conditions at the higher elevation region of the study area and discuss this in relation to the subglacial hydrological system. Our results also reveal an area with an overdeepening where basal friction is significantly lower than elsewhere on the glacier all year round. We attribute this to either water pooling at the base, or saturated sediments and increased strain heating at this location which softens the ice further.

The Greenland ice sheet is a major contributor to sea level rise, adding on average 0.47 ± 0.23 mm year − 1 to global mean sea level between 1991 and 2015. The cryosphere as a whole has contributed around 45% of observed global sea level rise since 1993. Understanding the present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet is therefore vital for understanding the processes controlling the modern-day rates of sea level change and for making projections of sea level rise into the future. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of the mass budget of Greenland based on a diverse range of remote sensing observations to produce the essential climate variables (ECVs) of ice velocity, surface elevation change, grounding line location, calving front location, and gravimetric mass balance as well as numerical modelling that together build a consistent picture of a shrinking ice sheet. We also combine these observations with output from a regional climate model and from an ice sheet model to gain insight into existing biases in ice sheet dynamics and surface mass balance processes. Observations show surface lowering across virtually all regions of the ice sheet and at some locations up to −2.65 m year − 1 between 1995 and 2017 based on radar altimetry analysis. In addition, calving fronts at 28 study sites, representing a sample of typical glaciers, have retreated all around Greenland since the 1990s and in only two out of 28 study locations have they remained stable. During the same period, two of five floating ice shelves have collapsed while the locations of grounding lines at the remaining three floating ice shelves have remained stable over the observation period. In a detailed case study with a fracture model at Petermann glacier, we demonstrate the potential sensitivity of these floating ice shelves to future warming. GRACE gravimetrically-derived mass balance (GMB) data shows that overall Greenland has lost 255 ± 15 Gt year − 1 of ice over the period 2003 to 2016, consistent with that shown by IMBIE and a marked increase compared to a rate of loss of 83 ± 63 Gt year − 1 in the 1993−2003 period. Regional climate model and ice sheet model simulations show that surface mass processes dominate the Greenland ice sheet mass budget over most of the interior. However, in areas of high ice velocity there is a significant contribution to mass loss by ice dynamical processes. Marked differences between models and observations indicate that not all processes are captured accurately within models, indicating areas for future research.

The geometry of the ice sheets during the Pliocene to early Pleistocene is not well constrained. Here we apply an ice-flow model in the study of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) during three extreme intervals of this period constrained by geological observations and climate reconstructions. We study the extent of the GIS during the Mid-Pliocene Warmth (3.3–3.0 Ma), its advance across the continental shelf during the late Pliocene to early Pleistocene glaciations (3.0–2.4 Ma) as implied by offshore geological studies, and the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions around 2.4 Ma as deduced from the deposits of the Kap København Formation, North Greenland. Our experiments show that no coherent ice sheet is likely to have existed in Greenland during the Mid-Pliocene Warmth and that only local ice caps may have been present in the coastal mountains of East Greenland. Our results illustrate the variability of the GIS during the Pliocene to early Pleistocene and underline the importance of including independent estimates of the GIS in studies of climate during this period. We conclude that the GIS did not exist throughout the Pliocene to early Pleistocene, and that it melted during interglacials even during the late Pliocene climate deterioration.