1. Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
- Author
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Guigone Camus, Gilles Ramstein, Cyril Caminade, Margaux Charra, Dimitri Defrance, Adrian M. Tompkins, Alizée Chemison, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), University of Liverpool, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Epidemiology ,Rain ,Science ,Greenland ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Distribution (economics) ,Climate change ,Mosquito Vectors ,Global Warming ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,03 medical and health sciences ,Malaria transmission ,[SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases ,Anopheles ,parasitic diseases ,Prevalence ,medicine ,Animals ,Humans ,Ice Cover ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Multidisciplinary ,biology ,business.industry ,Global warming ,General Chemistry ,Models, Theoretical ,medicine.disease ,biology.organism_classification ,Malaria ,3. Good health ,030104 developmental biology ,Geography ,13. Climate action ,Agriculture ,Climatology ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,[SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology ,business ,Risk assessment ,Climate-change impacts - Abstract
Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments., Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.
- Published
- 2021
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