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A high-resolution forecast methodology for the ash hazard at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is presented. The methodology employs a combined modeling approach and utilizes eruption source parameters estimated by geophysical observations from Sakurajima, allowing for a proactive approach in forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast data over the area of interest. The high-resolution meteorological data are then used in FALL3D model to provide a forecast for the ash dispersal and deposition. The methodology is applied for an eruption that occurred on June 16, 2018. Disdrometer observations of ashfall are used along with ash dispersal modeling to inform the choice of the total grain size distribution (TGSD). A series of pseudo-forecast ash dispersal simulations are then carried out using the proposed methodology and estimated TGSD, initialized with meteorological forecast data released up to ∼13 hours before the eruption, with results showing surprising consistency up to ∼10 hours before the eruption. Using forecast data up to 4 hours before the eruption was seen to constrain observation to model ratios within a factor of 2–4 depending on the timing of simulation and location. A number of key future improvements for the methodology are also highlighted.

Ground-based remote sensing equipment have the potential to be used for the nowcasting of the tephra hazard from volcanic eruptions. To do so raw data from the equipment first need to be accurately transformed to tephra-related physical quantities. In order to establish these relations for Sakurajima volcano, Japan, we propose a methodology based on high-resolution simulations. An eruption that occurred at Sakurajima on 16 July 2018 is used as the basis of a pilot study. The westwards dispersal of the tephra cloud was ideal for the observation network that has been installed near the volcano. In total, the plume and subsequent tephra cloud were recorded by 2 XMP radars, 1 lidar and 3 optical disdrometers, providing insight on all phases of the eruption, from plume generation to tephra transport away from the volcano. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and FALL3D models were used to reconstruct the transport and deposition patterns. Simulated airborne tephra concentration and accumulated load were linked, respectively, to lidar backscatter intensity and radar reflectivity. Overall, results highlight the possibility of using such a high-resolution modelling-based methodology as a reliable complementary strategy to common approaches for retrieving tephra-related quantities from remote sensing data.

With the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull (Iceland) in 2010, interest in the transport of volcanic ash after moderate to major eruptions has increased with regards to both the physical and the emergency hazard management aspects. However, there remain significant gaps in the understanding of the long-term behaviour of emissions from volcanoes with long periods of activity. Mt. Sakurajima (Japan) provides us with a rare opportunity to study such activity, due to its eruptive behaviour and dense observation network. In the 6-year period from 2009 to 2015, the volcano was erupting at an almost constant rate introducing approximately 500 kt of ash per month to the atmosphere. The long-term characteristics of the transport and deposition of ash and SO2 in the area surrounding the volcano are studied here using daily surface observations of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and SO2 and monthly ashfall values. Results reveal different dispersal patterns for SO2 and volcanic ash, suggesting volcanic emissions’ separation in the long-term. Peak SO2 concentrations at different locations on the volcano vary up to 2 orders of magnitude and decrease steeply with distance. Airborne volcanic ash increases SPM concentrations uniformly across the area surrounding the volcano, with distance from the vent having a secondary effect. During the period studied here, the influence of volcanic emissions was identifiable both in SO2 and SPM concentrations which were, at times, over the recommended exposure limits defined by the Japanese government, European Union and the World Health Organisation. Depositional patterns of volcanic ash exhibit elements of seasonality, consistent with previous studies. Climatological and topographic effects are suspected to impact the deposition of volcanic ash away from the vent: for sampling stations located close to complex topographical elements, sharp changes in the deposition patterns were observed, with ash deposits for neighbouring stations as close as 5 km differing as much as an order of magnitude. Despite these effects, deposition was sufficiently approximated by an inverse power law relationship, the fidelity of which depended on the distance from the vent: for proximal to intermediate areas ( 20 km), errors decrease with longer accumulation periods (tested here for 1–72 months), while the opposite was seen for deposition in distal areas ( > 20 km).

The simulation of volcanic ash transport and deposition (VATD) for distances within a few kilometres from the vent (proximal region) is challenging owing to a combination of unresolved volcanogenic effects and the impact of the volcano's orography. Due to the urgency of calculations or sometimes lack of access to computational resources or expertise, atmospheric vertical velocity (w) is often underestimated in VATD modelling. The error associated with this underestimation has, however, never been properly quantified. Here, we use a weak vulcanian eruption that occurred at Sakurajima volcano on 1/10/2017 as a first step to addressing this limitation. We combine deposit characteristics observed by disdrometer measurements with high-resolution atmospheric and VATD modelling to validate and illustrate the differences in modelled trajectories when w is either ignored or accounted for. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to model the orogenic effects down to a resolution of 50 m. Eulerian and Lagrangian VATD models (FALL3D and LagTrack, a newly-developed Matlab code, respectively) are used to describe the particle trajectories. Results confirm the importance of w in the case of low-altitude eruptions for capturing the complex, near-vent trajectory of ash particles: when neglected fall velocities were seen to differ up to 2–5 m s−1 depending on the particle size. Although the impact of w is most notable within 10 km from the vent, the forced sedimentation of low terminal velocity particles can have a significant secondary effect at larger distances.

Vulcanian eruptions (short-lived explosions consisting of a rising thermal) occur daily in volcanoes around the world. Such small-scale eruptions represent a challenge in numerical modeling due to local-scale effects, such as the volcano’s topography impact on atmospheric circulation and near-vent plume dynamics, that need to be accounted for. In an effort to improve the applicability of Tephra2, a commonly-used advection-diffusion model, in the case of vulcanian eruptions, a number of key modifications were carried out: (i) the ability to solve the equations over bending plume, (ii) temporally-evolving three-dimensional meteorological fields, (iii) the replacement of the particle diameter distribution with observed particle terminal velocity distribution which provides a simple way to account for the settling velocity variation due to particle shape and density. We verified the advantage of our modified model (Tephra4D) in the tephra dispersion from vulcanian eruptions by comparing the calculations and disdrometer observations of tephra sedimentation from four eruptions at Sakurajima volcano, Japan. The simulations of the eruptions show that Tephra4D is useful for eruptions in which small-scale movement contributes significantly to ash transport mainly due to the consideration for orographic winds in advection.

Tephra transport modelling has predominantly been carried out over synoptic-scale resolutions, resolving only fundamental atmospheric circulations. Consequently, model sensitivity studies have focused on these resolutions. In recent years, improved eruption source parameter (ESP) estimation methods and computational efficiency have progressively led to the use of higher resolutions to increase the fidelity of tephra transport simulations. This is a new computational regime whose model sensitivities remain largely unexplored. Here, high-resolution simulations using a 300 m horizontal grid spacing were carried out using WRF and FALL3D to assess sensitivity to: meteorological input data (using both reanalysis and forecast data), boundary layer parametrisation, plume model, settling velocity, total grain-size distribution (TGSD), and aggregation, leading to a total of 1280 possible configurations. An eruption that occurred on 28 July 2019 at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is used as a case study, as the northwards dispersal of a 3.8 km-high plume led to the temporary closure of Kagoshima airport. Sedimentation was observed at three optical disdrometers on the volcano, providing insight on the deposition timing and particle size distribution. Results reveal that meteorological input data can have a significant impact over the fidelity of the simulations, with errors changing over one order of magnitude depending on the initialisation dataset. This was found to be the result of local bias in the simulated wind fields over the region of dispersal, which was not represented in the domain-wide assessment of the WRF simulations. Ensemble simulations using different meteorological input data were found to mitigate this, significantly increasing the fidelity of the final ensemble product. Use of a plume model and the correct estimation of the TGSD were seen to significantly improve results. Finally, even with detailed data to inform the choice, use of an empirical aggregation scheme was seen to significantly degrade the accuracy of the simulations.

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

Volcanic ash is a major atmospheric hazard that has a significant impact on local populations and international aviation. The topography surrounding a volcano affects the transport and deposition of volcanic ash, but these effects have not been studied in depth. Here we investigate orographic impacts on ash transport and deposition in the context of the Sakurajima volcano in Japan, using the chemistry-resolving version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sakurajima is an ideal location for such a study because of the surrounding mountainous topography, frequent eruptions, and comprehensive observing network. At Sakurajima, numerical experiments reveal that across the 2–8ϕ grain size range, the deposition of ‘medium-sized’ ash (3–5ϕ) is most readily affected by orographic flows. The direct effects of resolving fine-scale orographic phenomena are counteracting: mountain-induced atmospheric gravity waves can keep ash afloat while enhanced downslope winds in the lee of mountains (up to 50% stronger) can force the ash downwards. Gravity waves and downslope winds were seen to have an effect along the dispersal path, in the vicinity of both the volcano as well as other mountains. Depending on the atmospheric conditions, resolving these orographic effects means ash can be transported higher than the initial injection height (especially for ash finer than 2ϕ), shortly after the eruption (within 20 minutes) and close to the vent (within the first 10 km), effectively modifying the input plume height used in an ash dispersal model – an effect that should be taken into account when initialising simulations.