Search

In this article, we consider a variety of different mechanisms through which crises such as COVID-19 can propagate from the micro-economic behaviour of individual agents through to an economy’s aggregate dynamics and subsequently spill over into the global economy. Our central theme is one of changes in the behaviour of heterogeneous agents, agents who differ in terms of some measure of size, wealth, connectivity, or behaviour, in different parts of an economy. These are illustrated through a variety of case studies, from individuals and households with budgetary constraints, to financial markets, to companies composed of thousands of small projects, to companies that implement single multi-billion dollar projects. In each case, we emphasise the role of data or theoretical models and place them in the context of measuring their inter-connectivity and emergent dynamics. Some of these are simple models that need to be `dressed’ in socio-economic data to be used for policy-making, and we give an example of how to do this with housing markets, while others are more similar to archaeological evidence, they provide hints about the bigger picture but have yet to be unified with other results. The result is only an outline of what is possible but it shows that we are drawing closer to an integrated set of concepts, principles, and models. In the final section, we emphasise the potential as well as the limitations and what the future of these methods hold for economics.

Urban housing markets, along with markets of other assets, universally exhibit periods of strong price increases followed by sharp corrections. The mechanisms generating such non-linearities are not yet well understood. We develop an agent-based model populated by a large number of heterogeneous households. The agents’ behavioral rules are consistent with the concept of bounded rationality. The model is calibrated using several large and distributed datasets of the Greater Sydney region (demographic, economic and financial) across three specific and diverse periods since 2006. The model is not only capable of explaining price dynamics during these periods, but also reproduces the novel behavior actually observed immediately prior to the market peak in 2017, namely a sharp increase in the variability of prices. This novel behavior is related to a combination of trend-following aptitude of the household agents (herding) and their collective propensity to borrow. Trend-following behavior is found to be essential in replicating market dynamics.

Housing markets are inherently spatial, yet many existing models fail to capture this spatial dimension. Here we introduce a new graph-based approach for incorporating a spatial component in a large-scale urban housing agent-based model (ABM). The model explicitly captures several social and economic factors that influence the agents' decision-making behaviour (such as fear of missing out, their trend following aptitude, and the strength of their submarket outreach), and interprets these factors in spatial terms. The proposed model is calibrated and validated with the housing market data for the Greater Sydney region. The ABM simulation results not only include predictions for the overall market, but also produce area-specific forecasting at the level of local government areas within Sydney as arising from individual buy and sell decisions. In addition, the simulation results elucidate agent preferences in submarkets, highlighting differences in agent behaviour, for example, between first-time home buyers and investors, and between both local and overseas investors., 25 pages + 31 page appendix

Modern urban science views differences in attractiveness of residential suburbs as the main driver of resettlement within a city. In particular, certain suburbs may attract residents due to lower commute costs, and this is believed to lead to compactification of a city, with highly populated central business district and sprawled suburbia. In this paper we assess residential resettlement patterns in Australian capital cities by analyzing the 2011 and 2016 Australian Census data. Rather than explicitly defining a residential attractiveness of each suburb in subjective terms, we introduce and calibrate a model which quantifies the intra-city migration flows in terms of the attractiveness potentials (and their differences), inferring these from the data. We discover that, despite the existence of well-known static agglomeration patterns favouring central districts over the suburbia, the dynamic flows that shape the intra-city migration over the last decade reveal the preference directed away from the central districts with a high density of jobs and population, towards the less populated suburbs on the periphery. Furthermore, we discover that the relocation distance of such resettlement flows plays a vital role, and explains a significant part of the variation in migration flows: the resettlement flow markedly decreases with the relocation distance. Finally, we propose a conjecture that these directional resettlement flows are explained by the cities’ structure, with monocentric cities exhibiting outward flows with much higher reluctance to long-distance relocation. This conjecture is verified across the major Australian capitals: both monocentric (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart) and polycentric (Darwin and Canberra).

The approach of global isomorphism between the fluid and the Ising model is applied to obtain an expression for the surface tension of the Lennard-Jones fluid on the basis of the information about the Ising model. This is done in a broad interval of temperatures along the phase coexistence, and is valid both in 2D and 3D. The relation between the critical amplitudes of the surface tension of the fluid and the Ising model is derived in the vicinity of the critical point. The obtained theoretical estimates agree well with the literature results for the surface tension. The methodology is demonstrated for the 2D LJ fluid on the basis of the exact solution of the 2D Ising model and is tested for the 3D LJ fluid. As a result, an expression for the surface tension without any fitting parameter is derived., Comment: 3 figures, conference PLMMP 2016, Kiev, May 27-30

International audience; We show that the solvent behaviour in both diffusio-osmosis and Marangoni flow can be derived from a simple model of colloid-interface interactions. We demonstrate that the direction of the flow is regulated by a single value of the attractive parameter covering the purely repulsive and attractive – repulsive interaction cases. The proposed universality between diffusio-osmosis and Marangoni flow is extended further to include diffusio-phoresis. In particular, an object immersed to a colloidal solution moves towards the low concentration of the colloidal particles in the case of colloid-interface repulsion and towards the high concentration of the colloidal particles in the case of colloid-interface attraction. The approach combines the methods of fluid dynamics, molecular physics and transport phenomena and provides a tractable explanation of how the colloid-interface interactions affect the momentum balance and the transport phenomena (interfacially driven transport).

We study formation and growth of human settlements as thermodynamic phenomena and focus on critical regimes associated with these processes. In doing so we develop a common thermodynamic perspective on modeling urban structures driven by "fast" and "slow" underlying dynamics of human resettlement and infrastructure development. The unifying perspective is illustrated by a comparative analysis of two qualitatively and quantitatively different models of dynamic resettlement. We demonstrate that the considered urban systems undergo phase transitions, irrespective of the particular details of the dynamic models. This suggests that the observed critical behavior is intrinsic to resettlement process.

Fluid transport through nanoporous membranes is subject to additional resistance at the membrane interface, a large part of which is due to the difference in thermodynamic states of the fluid inside and outside the membrane. The state of the fluid confined within a membrane depends on the size of the nanopores, which results in a corresponding dependence of the interfacial resistance. We investigate here the dependence of the thermodynamic resistance on the radius of the nanopore and the thickness of the pore wall, considering the transport of carbon dioxide and methane through carbon nanotubes of radii between 4 A and 50 A at room temperature, and a wide range of pressures. We find that the thermodynamic resistance strongly depends on the state of the fluid adsorbed in the membrane, which is determined by the size of the pores and the external pressure. In particular, for narrow micropores the thermodynamic resistance has two pressure regimes, being constant at low pressures and increasing gradually at high pressures. Furthermore, moderate and wide pores allow presence of multiple fluid phases with distinct condensation. In the corresponding pressure range the thermodynamic resistance is subjected to large fluctuations, which are not observed for small pores. Furthermore, our results reveal strong dependence of the thermodynamic resistance on the pore radius for very narrow pores and large pressures, when the state of the fluid inside of the membrane is most different from that of the external bulk fluid, with the resistance increasing with decrease in pore radius. Our results also indicate that analyzing the pore size dependence of the interfacial resistance makes it possible to distinguish the contribution of the thermodynamic resistance from the other sources of resistance to fluid flow through the membrane, in particular, the hydrodynamic resistance and the internal resistance.

Nanoporous materials are important in industrial separation, but their application is subject to strong interfacial barriers to the entry and transport of fluids. At certain conditions the fluid inside and outside the nanoporous material can be viewed as a two-phase system, with an interface between them, which poses an excess resistance to matter flow. We show that there exist two kinds of phenomena which influence the interfacial resistance: hydrodynamic effects and thermodynamic effects, which are independent of each other. Here, we investigate the role of the thermodynamic effects in carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and slit pores and compare the associated thermodynmic resistance with that due to hydrodynamic effects traditionally modeled by the established Sampson expression. Using CH4 and CO2 as model fluids, we show that the thermodynamic resistance is especially important for moderate to high pressures, at which the fluid within the CNT or slit pore is in the condensed state. Further, we show that at such pressures the thermodynamic resistance becomes comparable with the internal resistance to fluid transport at length scales typical of membranes used in fuel cells, and of importance in membrane-based separation, and nanofluidics in general.

We propose a phenomenological non-equilibrium framework for modelling the evolution of cities which describes the intra-urban resettlement as an irreversible diffusive process. We validate this framework using the actual migration data for the Australian capital cities. With respect to the residential relocation, the population is shown to be composed of two distinct groups, exhibiting different relocation frequencies. In the context of the developed framework, these groups can be interpreted as two components of a binary mixture, each with its own diffusive relaxation time. Using this approach, we obtain long-term predictions of the cities' spatial structure, which defines their equilibrium population distribution., Comment: 35 pages, 13 figures

We use molecular-dynamics computer simulations to investigate the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure responses of a simple model atomic fluid to transverse and longitudinal external forces. We have previously introduced a response function formalism for describing the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure profiles in an atomic fluid when it is perturbed by a combination of longitudinal and transverse external forces that are independent of time and have a simple sinusoidal spatial variation. In this paper, we extend the application of the previously introduced formalism to consider the case of a longitudinal force composed of multiple sinusoidal components in combination with a single-component sinusoidal transverse force. We find that additional harmonics are excited in the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure profiles due to couplings between the force components. By analyzing the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure profiles in Fourier space, we are able to evaluate the Fourier coefficients of the response functions, which now have additional components describing the coupling relationships. Having evaluated the Fourier coefficients of the response functions, we are then able to accurately predict the density, velocity, and shear-pressure profiles for fluids that are under the influence of a longitudinal force composed of two or three sinusoidal components combined with a single-component sinusoidal transverse force. We also find that in the case of a multisinusoidal longitudinal force, it is sufficient to include only pairwise couplings between different longitudinal force components. This means that it is unnecessary to include couplings between three or more force components in the case of a longitudinal force composed of many Fourier components, and this paves the way for a highly accurate but tractable treatment of nonlocal transport phenomena in fluids with density and strain-rate inhomogeneities on the molecular length scale.

We analyze the local equilibrium assumption for interfaces from the perspective of gauge transformations, which are the small displacements of Gibbs' dividing surface. The gauge invariance of thermodynamic properties turns out to be equivalent to conditions for jumps of bulk densities across the interface. This insight strengthens the foundations of the local equilibrium assumption for interfaces and can be used to characterize nonequilibrium interfaces in a compact and consistent way, with a clear focus on gauge-invariant properties. Using the principle of gauge invariance, we show that the validity of Clapeyron equations can be extended to nonequilibrium interfaces, and an additional jump condition for the momentum density is recognized to be of the Clapeyron type.