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There is limited evidence around the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce violence against children in low- and middle-income countries. We used a decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three intervention scenarios for reducing adolescent emotional, physical, and sexual abuse in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. The intervention scenarios were: 1) Community grant outreach to link households to South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) if they are eligible, but not receiving it; 2) Group-based parenting support; and 3) Group-based parenting support 'plus' linkage to the CSG. We estimated average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) for intervention scenarios over a ten-year time horizon, and compared them to a South Africa-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (USD3390). Health effects were expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Our model considered four combinations of routine service versus trial-based costing, and population-average versus high prevalence of violence. Under routine service costing, ACERs for grant outreach and parenting support were below the WTP threshold when considering a population-average prevalence of violence USD2850 (Lower: USD1840-Upper: USD10,500) and USD2620 (USD1520-USD9800) per DALY averted, respectively; and a high prevalence of violence USD1320 (USD908-USD5180) and USD1340 (USD758-USD4910) per DALY averted, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness of parenting support plus grant linkage relative to parenting support alone was USD462 (USD346-USD1610) and USD225 (USD150-USD811) per DALY averted at a population-average and high prevalence of violence, respectively. Under trial-based costing, only the ACER for grant outreach was below the WTP threshold when considering a high prevalence of violence USD2580 (USD1640-USD9370) per DALY averted. Confidence intervals for all ACERs crossed the WTP threshold. In conclusion, grant outreach and parenting support are likely to be cost-effective intervention scenarios for reducing violence against adolescents if they apply routine service costing and reach high risk groups. Combining parenting support with grant linkage is likely to be more cost-effective than parenting support alone.

Recent evidence has shown support for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) accelerator concept, which highlights the need to identify interventions or programmatic areas that can affect multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs) at once to boost their achievement. These data have also clearly shown enhanced effects when interventions are used in combination, above and beyond the effect of single interventions. However, detailed knowledge is now required on optimum combinations and relative gain in order to derive policy guidance. Which accelerators work for which outcomes, what combinations are optimum, and how many combinations are needed to maximise effect? The current study utilised pooled data from the Young Carers (n = 1402) and Child Community Care (n = 446) studies. Data were collected at baseline (n = 1848) and at a 1 to 1.5- year follow-up (n = 1740) from children and young adolescents aged 9-13 years, living in South Africa. Measures in common between the two databases were used to generate five accelerators (caregiver praise, caregiver monitoring, food security, living in a safe community, and access to community-based organizations) and to investigate their additive effects on 14 SDG-related outcomes. Predicted probabilities and predicted probability differences were calculated for each SDG outcome under the presence of none to five accelerators to determine optimal combinations. Results show that various accelerator combinations are effective, though different combinations are needed for different outcomes. Some accelerators ramified across multiple outcomes. Overall, the presence of up to three accelerators was associated with marked improvements over multiple outcomes. The benefit of targeting access to additional accelerators, with additional costs, needs to be weighed against the relative gains to be achieved with high quality but focused interventions. In conclusion, the current data show the detailed impact of various protective factors and provides implementation guidance for policy makers in targeting and distributing interventions to maximise effect and expenditure. Future work should investigate multiplicative effects and synergistic interactions between accelerators.

BackgroundThe INSPIRE framework was developed by 10 global agencies as the first global package for preventing and responding to violence against children. The framework includes seven complementary strategies. Delivering all seven strategies is a challenge in resource-limited contexts. Consequently, governments are requesting additional evidence to inform which 'accelerator' provisions can simultaneously reduce multiple types of violence against children.Methods and findingsWe pooled data from two prospective South African adolescent cohorts including Young Carers (2010-2012) and Mzantsi Wakho (2014-2017). The combined sample size was 5,034 adolescents. Each cohort measured six self-reported violence outcomes (sexual abuse, transactional sexual exploitation, physical abuse, emotional abuse, community violence victimisation, and youth lawbreaking) and seven self-reported INSPIRE-aligned protective factors (positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, food security at home, basic economic security at home, free schooling, free school meals, and abuse response services). Associations between hypothesised protective factors and violence outcomes were estimated jointly in a sex-stratified multivariate path model, controlling for baseline outcomes and socio-demographics and correcting for multiple-hypothesis testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. We calculated adjusted probability estimates conditional on the presence of no, one, or all protective factors significantly associated with reduced odds of at least three forms of violence in the path model. Adjusted risk differences (ARDs) and adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also calculated. The sample mean age was 13.54 years, and 56.62% were female. There was 4% loss to follow-up. Positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, and food security at home were each associated with lower odds of three or more violence outcomes (p < 0.05). For girls, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was estimated to be lower if all three of these factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 5.38% and 1.64% (ARD: -3.74% points, 95% CI -5.31 to -2.16, p < 0.001); transactional sexual exploitation, 10.07% and 4.84% (ARD: -5.23% points, 95% CI -7.26 to -3.20, p < 0.001); physical abuse, 38.58% and 23.85% (ARD: -14.72% points, 95% CI -19.11 to -10.33, p < 0.001); emotional abuse, 25.39% and 12.98% (ARD: -12.41% points, 95% CI -16.00 to -8.83, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation, 36.25% and 28.37% (ARD: -7.87% points, 95% CI -11.98 to -3.76, p < 0.001); and youth lawbreaking, 18.90% and 11.61% (ARD: -7.30% points, 95% CI -10.50 to -4.09, p < 0.001). For boys, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was also estimated to be lower if all three factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 2.39% to 1.80% (ARD: -0.59% points, 95% CI -2.24 to 1.05, p = 0.482); transactional sexual exploitation, 6.97% to 4.55% (ARD: -2.42% points, 95% CI -4.77 to -0.08, p = 0.043); physical abuse from 37.19% to 25.44% (ARD: -11.74% points, 95% CI -16.91 to -6.58, p < 0.001); emotional abuse from 23.72% to 10.72% (ARD: -13.00% points, 95% CI -17.04 to -8.95, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation from 41.28% to 35.41% (ARD: -5.87% points, 95% CI -10.98 to -0.75, p = 0.025); and youth lawbreaking from 22.44% to 14.98% (ARD -7.46% points, 95% CI -11.57 to -3.35, p < 0.001). Key limitations were risk of residual confounding and not having information on protective factors related to all seven INSPIRE strategies.ConclusionIn this cohort study, we found that positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are associated with reduced risk of multiple forms of violence against children. The presence of all three of these factors may be linked to greater risk reduction as compared to the presence of one or none of these factors. Policies promoting action on positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are likely to support further efficiencies in the delivery of INSPIRE.

BackgroundIllness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed "catastrophic." Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a "TB-specific" approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a "TB-sensitive" approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs.Methods and findingsModel inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries' established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers.ConclusionsA TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

Abstract Background Structural interventions are endorsed to enhance biomedical and behavioural HIV prevention programmes for adolescents. Aiming to inform future interventions, we evaluated longitudinal associations between six protective factors that link closely to existing structural HIV prevention interventions, and five sexual risk behaviours for HIV transmission in a cohort of adolescents in South Africa. Methods We used three rounds of data between 2014–2018 on 1046 adolescents living with HIV and 473 age-matched community peers in South Africa’s Eastern Cape (Observations = 4402). We estimated sex-specific associations between six time-varying protective factors − number of social grants, education enrolment, days with enough food, caregiver supervision, positive caregiving, and adolescent-caregiver communication; and five HIV risk behaviours − multiple sexual partners, transactional sex, age-disparate sex, condomless sex, and sex on substances. HIV risk behaviours were analysed separately in multivariable random effects within-between logistic regression models that accounted for correlation of repeated observations on the same individual. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR), contrasting adjusted probabilities of HIV risk behaviours at ‘No’ and ‘Yes’ for education enrolment, and average and maximum values for the other five protective factors. Results The sample mean age was 15.29 (SD: 3.23) years and 58% were girls. Among girls, within-individuals, increases from mean to maximum scores in positive caregiving were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.67–0.91); in caregiver supervision were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.75; 95%CI = 0.66–0.84), and age-disparate sex (PR = 0.84; 95%CI = 0.73–0.95); in adolescent-caregiver communication were associated with higher probability of transactional sex (PR = 1.70; 95%CI = 1.08–2.32); and in days with enough food at home were associated with lower probability of multiple sexual partners (PR = 0.89; 95%CI = 0.81–0.97), and transactional sex (PR = 0.82; 95%CI = 0.72–0.92). Change from non-enrolment in education to enrolment was associated with lower probability of age-disparate sex (PR = 0.49; 95%CI = 0.26–0.73). Between-individuals, relative to mean caregiver supervision scores, maximum scores were associated with lower probability of multiple sexual partners (PR = 0.59; 95%CI = 0.46–0.72), condomless sex (PR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.69–0.91), and sex on substances (PR = 0.42; 95%CI = 0.26–0.59); and relative to non-enrolment, education enrolment was associated with lower probability of condomless sex (PR = 0.59; 95%CI = 0.39–0.78). Among boys, within-individuals, increases from mean to maximum scores in positive caregiving were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.77; 95%CI = 0.59–0.96), and higher probability of condomless sex (PR = 1.26; 95%CI = 1.08–1.43); in caregiver supervision were associated with lower probability of multiple sexual partners (PR = 0.73; 95%CI = 0.64–0.82), transactional sex (PR = 0.63; 95%CI = 0.50–0.76), age-disparate sex (PR = 0.67; 95%CI = 0.49–0.85), and sex on substances (PR = 0.61; 95%CI = 0.45–0.78), and in days with enough food at home were associated with lower probability of transactional sex (PR = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.84–0.98). Conclusion Effective structural interventions to improve food security and education enrolment among adolescent girls, and positive and supervisory caregiving among adolescent girls and boys are likely to translate into crucial reductions in sexual risk behaviours linked to HIV transmission in this population.

Abstract Background Accelerating declines in tuberculosis (TB) incidence is paramount for achieving global goals set for 2030 by the Sustainable Development Goals and the End TB Strategy. The aim of this study was to identify key country-level social determinants of national TB incidence trends. Methods This longitudinal ecological study used country-level data extracted from online databases from the period 2005–2015. We used multivariable Poisson regression models allowing for distinct within- and between-country effects to estimate associations between national TB incidence rates and 13 social determinants of health. The analysis was stratified by country income status. Results The study sample included 48 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) and 68 high- and upper-middle income countries (HUMICs), with a total of 528 and 748 observations between 2005–2015, respectively. National TB incidence rates declined in 108/116 countries between 2005–2015, with an average drop of 12.95% in LLMICs and 14.09% in HUMICs. Between LLMICs, higher Human Development Index (HDI), social protection spending, TB case detection, and TB treatment success were associated with lower TB incidence. Higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS was associated with higher TB incidence. Within LLMICs, increases in HDI over time were associated with lower TB incidence rates. Between HUMICs, higher HDI, health spending, and diabetes prevalence were associated with lower TB incidence, whereas higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS and alcohol-use were associated with higher TB incidence. Within HUMICs, increases in HIV/AIDS and diabetes prevalence over time were associated with higher TB incidence. Conclusions In LLMICs, TB incidence rates remain highest in countries with low human development, social protection spending and TB programme performance, and high rates of HIV/AIDS. Strengthening human development is likely to accelerate declines in TB incidence. In HUMICs, TB incidence rates remain highest in countries with low human development, health spending and diabetes prevalence, and high rates of HIV/AIDS and alcohol use. Here, slowing rising rates of HIV/AIDS and diabetes is likely to accelerate declines in TB incidence.

Abstract Background The World Health Organization prioritises a more holistic global response to end the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. Based on experiences in the HIV response, social protection, and in particular cash transfers, show promise for contributing to this. Currently, individual-level evidence for the potential of cash transfers to prevent TB by addressing the structural social determinants of disease is lacking. To identify priority actions for the TB research agenda, we appraised efforts by the HIV response to establish the role of cash transfers in preventing HIV infection. Main body The HIV response has evaluated the effects of cash transfers on risky sexual behaviours and HIV incidence. Work has also evaluated the added effects of supplementing cash transfers with psychosocial support. The HIV response has focused research on populations with disproportionate HIV risk, and used a mix of explanatory evaluations, which use ideal conditions, and pragmatic evaluations, which use operational conditions, to generate evidence that is both causally valid and applicable to the real world. It has always collaborated with multiple stakeholders in funding and evaluating projects. Learning from the HIV response, priority actions for the TB response should be to investigate the effect of cash transfers on intermediary social determinants of active TB disease, and TB incidence, as well as the added effects of supplementing cash transfers with psychosocial support. Work should be focused on key groups in high burden settings, and look to build a combination of explanatory and pragmatic evidence to inform policy decisions in this field. To achieve this, there is an urgent need to facilitate collaborations between groups interested in evaluating the impact of cash transfers on TB risk. Conclusions The HIV response highlights several priority actions necessary for the TB response to establish the potential of cash transfers to prevent TB by addresing the structural social determinants of disease.