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A comprehensive analysis of the July 2021 event that occurred on Lake Como (Italy), during which heavy hailstorms and floods affected the surroundings of Lake, is presented. The study provides a detailed analysis of the event using different observation sources currently available. The employed techniques include both conventional (rain gauges, radar, atmospheric sounding) and non-conventional (satellite-based Earth observation products, GNSS, and lightning detection network) observations for hydro-meteorological analysis. The study is split in three main topics: event description by satellite-based observations; long-term analysis by the ERA5 model and ASCAT soil water index; and short-term analysis by lightning data, GNSS delays and radar-VIL. The added value of the work is the near-real-time analysis of some of the datasets used, which opens up the potential for use in alerting systems, showing considerable application possibilities in NWP modeling, where it can also be useful for the implementation of early warning systems. The results highlight the validity of the different techniques and the consistency among the observations. This result, therefore, leads to the conclusion that a joint use of the innovative techniques with the operational ones can bring reliability in the description of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 10 July 2019, a giant hail-bearing supercell hit the Adriatic coast of central Italy. Hailstones with a maximum diameter of 14 cm were reported in the city of Pescara between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. In this work, the main synoptic and mesoscale features, responsible for the triggering and the development of the supercell, are analyzed using the WRF model. The intrusion of Bora wind over the northern and central Adriatic was relevant for two reasons: on the one side, the arrival of low-level cold air produced an uplift of the pre-existing warm air and favored the triggering of convection; on the other side, the strong vertical wind shear, also due to the presence of intense upper-level southwesterlies, created conditions favorable to the formation of the supercell. The predictability of the event is also discussed, comparing simulations starting at different initial times and forced with GFS and IFS forecasts. The model results show that the runs initialized at earlier times reproduced more accurately the track and the time evolution of the supercell. The HAILCAST module of WRF was also used to simulate hailstorm characteristics, such as the average hailstone diameter. WRF-HAILCAST simulations proved to be in fair agreement with the radar reflectivity retrievals and with local reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has demonstrated the value of polarimetric measurements for the correction of rain-path attenuation at X-band radar frequency and the estimation of rain parameters including drop-size distributions (DSD). The issue this paper is concerned with is to what degree uncertainties in attenuation correction can affect the estimation of DSD. Since attenuation-correction uncertainty enhances with rain path, our hypothesis is that DSD retrieval uncertainty at X-band may deteriorate with range. In this paper, we evaluate the relative accuracy of X-band DSD retrieval against DSD estimates from S-band radar observations and in situ disdrometer spectra. We present comparisons of various techniques for estimating DSD model parameters from attenuation-corrected X-band dual-polarization radar data. Coincident X-band polarimetric-radar (XPOL) and S-band polarimetric-radar dual-polarized radar measurements from the International [H.sub.2]O Project experiment as well as coincident XPOL (MP-X) measurements over disdrometer during a typhoon storm case in Japan are used to assess the accuracy of the different DSD retrieval algorithms applied to X-band radar measurements. Index Terms--Attenuation correction, drop-size distribution (DSD) retrievals, polarimetric radar, S-band radar, X-band radar.

A large data set of raindrop size distribution (RSD) measurements collected with the Joss--Waldvogel disdrometer (JWD) and the 2-D video disdrometer (2DVD) in the U.K., Greece, Japan, and the U.S. are analyzed and modeled. This work extends a previous effort devoted to the exploitation of U.K. data and the design of a stochastic procedure to randomly generate synthetic RSD intermittent time series. This study seeks to: 1) explore the differences of RSD-derived moments for distinct hydroclimate regions, ranging from tropics to subtropics and mid and northern latitudes; 2) compare the governing parameters of the normalized gamma RSD for both stratiform and convective events and perform a sensitivity analysis by using different best fitting techniques; 3) exploit the time-correlation structure of the estimated RSD parameters as the input of a vector autoregressive stationary model used to simulate time series (or horizontal profiles) of RSDs and, consequently, its moments as the rain rate and concentration; and 4) characterize the distribution of the inter-rain duration and rain duration to design a semi-Markov chain to represent the intermittency feature of the rainfall process in a climatological framework. This climatological analysis and the related stochastic RSD generation model may find useful applications within both hydrometeorology and radio propagation. Index Terms--Autoregressive process, climatology, disdrometer data, Markov chain, modeling, radar applications, radar meteorological factors, radio propagation, rain, raindrop size distribution (RSD), signal synthesis, weather radar.

Hydrometeorological and radio propagation applications can benefit from the capability to model the time evolution of raindrop size distribution (RSD). A new stochastic vector autoregressive semi-Markov model is proposed to randomly synthesize (generate) the temporal series of the three driving parameters of a normalized Gamma RSD. Rainfall intermittence is reproduced through a discrete semi-Markov process, modeled from disdrometer measurements using two-state analytical statistics of rain and dry period duration. The overall model is set up by means of a large set of disdrometer measurements, collected from 2003 to 2005 at Chilbolton, U.K. The driving parameters of the retrieved RSD are estimated using three approaches: the Gamma moment method and the 1-D and 3-D maximum-likelihood methods. Interestingly, these methodologies lead to quite different results, particularly when one is interested in evaluating RSD higher order moments such as the rain rate. The accuracy of the proposed RSD time-series generation technique is evaluated against available disdrometer measurements, providing excellent statistical scores. Index Terms--Autoregressive process, disdrometer, estimation techniques, intermittent rain process, raindrop size distribution (RSD), semi-Markov chain.

In this paper, a Bayesian statistical approach for supervised classification and estimation of hydrometeors, using a C-band polarimetric radar, is presented and discussed. The Bayesian Radar Algorithm for Hydrometeor Classification at C-band (BRAHCC) is supervised by a backscattering microphysical model, aimed at representing ten different hydrometeor classes in water, ice, and mixed phase. The expected error budget is evaluated by means of contingency tables on the basis of C-band radar noisy and attenuated synthetic data. Its accuracy is better than that obtained from a previously developed fuzzy logic C-band classification algorithm. As a second step of the overall retrieval algorithm, a multivariate regression is adopted to derive water content statistical estimators, exploiting simulated polarimetric radar data for each hydrometeor class. The BRAHCC methodology is then applied to a convective hail event, observed by two C-band dual-polarized radars in a network configuration. The hydrometeor classification along the line of sight, connecting the two C-band radars, is performed using the BRAHCC applied to path-attenuation-corrected data. Qualitative results are consistent with those derived from the fuzzy logic algorithm. Hydrometeor water content temporal evolution is tracked along the radar line of sight. Hail vertical occurrence is derived and compared with an empirical hail detection index applied along the radar connection line during the whole event. Index Terms--Bayesian inversion, hydrometeor classification and estimation, polarimetry, radar meteorology, rain clouds.

A model-based fuzzy-logic method for hydrometeor classification using C-band polarimetric radar data is presented and discussed. Membership functions of the fuzzy-logic algorithm are designed for best fitting simulated radar signatures at C-band. Such signatures are derived for ten supervised hydrometeor classes by means of a fully polarimetric radar scattering model. The Fuzzy-logic Radar Algorithm for Hydrometeor Classification at C-band (FRAHCC) is designed to use a relatively small set of polarimetric observables, i.e., copolar reflectivity and differential reflectivity, but a version of the algorithm based on the use of specific differential phase is also numerically tested and documented. The classification methodology is applied to volume data coming from a C-band two-radar network that is located in north Italy within the Po valley. Numerical and experimental results clearly show the improvements of hydrometeor classification, which were obtained by using FRAHCC with respect to the direct use of fuzzy-logic-based algorithms that are specifically tuned for S-band radar data. Moreover, the availability of two C-band rainfall observations of the same event allowed us to implement a path-integrated attenuation correction procedure, based on either a composite radar field approach or a network-constrained variational algorithm. The impact of these correction procedures on hydrometeor classification is qualitatively discussed within the considered case study. Index Terms--C-band weather radar, fuzzy-logic method, hydrometeor classification, path-attenuation correction, radar meteorology, radar polarimetry.

The potential of ground-based microwave weather radar systems for volcanic ash cloud detection and quantitative retrieval is evaluated. The relationship between radar reflectivity factor, ash concentration, and fall rate is statistically derived for various eruption regimes and ash sizes by applying a radar-reflectivity microphysical model. To quantitatively evaluate the ash detectability by weather radars, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by simulating synthetic ash clouds and varying ash concentration and size as a function of the range. Radar specifications are taken from typical radar systems at S-, C-, and X-band. A prototype algorithm for volcanic ash radar retrieval (VARR) is discussed. Starting from measured single-polarization reflectivity, the statistical inversion technique to retrieve ash concentration and fall rate is based on two cascade steps, namely: 1) classification of eruption regime and volcanic ash category and 2) estimation of ash concentration and fall rate. Expected accuracy of the VARR algorithm estimates is evaluated using a synthetic data set. An application of the VARR technique is finally shown, taking into consideration the eruption of the Grimsvotn volcano in Iceland on November 2004. Volume scan data from a Doppler C-band radar, which is located at 260 km from the volcano vent, are processed by means of the VARR algorithm. Examples of the achievable VARR products are presented and discussed. Index Terms--Ash retrieval, inversion methods, microwave radars, volcanic eruption clouds.

The raindrop size distribution (RSD) is a critical factor in estimating rain intensity using advanced dual-polarized weather radars. A new neural-network algorithm to estimate the RSD from S-band dual-polarized radar measurements is presented. The corresponding rain rates are then computed assuming a commonly used raindrop diameter speed relationship. Numerical simulations are used to investigate the efficiency and accuracy of this method. A stochastic model based on disdrometer measurements is used to generate realistic range profiles of the RSD parameters, while a T-matrix solution technique is adopted to compute the corresponding polarimetric variables. The error analysis, which is performed in order to evaluate the expected errors of this method, shows an improvement with respect to other methodologies described in the literature. A further sensitivity evaluation shows that the proposed technique performs fairly well even for low specific differential phase-shift values. Index Terms--Artificial neural network, radar polarimetry, raindrop size distribution (RSD), regularization.

Ground-based microwave radar systems can have a valuable role in volcanic ash cloud monitoring as evidenced by available radar imagery. Their use for ash cloud detection and quantitative retrieval has been so far not fully investigated. In order to do this, a forward electromagnetic model is set up and examined taking into account various operating frequencies such as S-, C-, X-, and Ka-bands. A dielectric and microphysical characterization of volcanic vescicular ash is carried out. Particle size-distribution (PSD) functions are derived both from the sequential fragmentation-transport (SFT) theory of pyroclastic deposits, leading to a scaled-Weibull PSD, and from more conventional scaled-Gamma PSD functions. Best fitting of these theoretical PSDs to available measured ash data at ground is performed in order to determine the value of the free PSD parameters. The radar backscattering from spherical-equivalent ash particles is simulated up to Ka-band and the accuracy of the Rayleigh scattering approximation is assessed by using an accurate ensemble particle scattering model. A classification scheme of ash average concentration and particle size is proposed and a sensitivity study of ash radar backscattering to model parameters is accomplished. A comparison with C-band radar signatures is finally illustrated and discussed. Index Terms--Ash clouds, microwave radars, radar remote sensing, volcanic eruption.

A new stable backward iterative technique to correct for path attenuation and differential attenuation is presented here. The technique named, neural network iterative polarimetric precipitation estimator by radar (NIPPER), is based on a polarimetric model used to train an embedded neural network, constrained by the measurement of the differential phase along the rain path. Simulations are used to investigate the efficiency, accuracy, and the robustness of the proposed technique. The precipitation is characterized with respect to raindrop size, shape, and orientation distribution. The performance of NIPPER is evaluated by using simulated radar volumes scan generated from S-band radar measurements. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to evaluate the expected errors of NIPPER. These evaluations show relatively better performance and robustness of the attenuation correction process when compared with currently available techniques. Index Terms--Attenuation correction, neural networks, polarimetric rain rate retrieval.

Operating a meteorological radar is generally a challenging task when in presence of a significant beam blockage as in complex orography. Apart from enhanced ground clutter, mountainous obstructions of the radar beam can significantly reduce the radar visibility and, thus, its monitoring capabilities. Self-consistent adaptive techniques to reconstruct vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPR) and near-surface rain-rate fields from high-elevation reflectivity bins are here proposed, compared, and tested for ranges up to 60 km. The methodology is based on statistical estimators trained by a large reflectivity volumetric datasets, classified into stratiform and convective rain regimes and resampled onto a uniform Cartesian grid by means of a modified Cressman technique. For what concerns reflectivity vertical profiles, two methods, respectively named statistical nonlinear reconstruction (NSR) and neural network reconstruction (NNR), are considered. The NSR method is based on the principal component analysis, applied to the radar dataset, in order to extract significant reflectivity-profile variance. A retrieval technique, based on a nonlinear multiple regression scheme, is then used to infer near-surface reflectivity from available high-altitude echoes at a given range. The NNR is based on a three-layer artificial neural network trained by means a feedforward backpropagation algorithm. For what concerns the near-surface rain retrieval, besides a power-law reflectivity-rain-rate (ZR) approach, a three-layer neural network technique is also set up in order to estimate surface rain rate from reconstructed VPR. The proposed reconstruction techniques are here illustrated by using volumetric data acquired by the C-band Doppler single-polarization radar, operated in L'Aquila, Italy. A case study, related to a rainfall event that occurred during fall 2000, is discussed. Using a test area within 60 km from the radar site and simulating the presence of beam obstructions, a comparison of NSR and NNR with conventional area average reconstruction techniques shows that the percentage improvement of both NSR and NNR approaches is significant, both for the error bias (by 30% to more than 50%, depending on altitude) and variance (by 10% to more than 20%). A sensitivity test indicates that the VPR reconstruction procedure is fairly robust to missing data, especially in terms of error bias. The comparison of estimated radar rainfall with rain gauge data measurement is also illustrated. The mean field bias closer to its optimal value and an error variance much smaller is obtained when neural network techniques are applied than with conventional ZR methods for both techniques of reconstruction. With respect to the latter, the obtained improvement is more than 40% in terms of root mean square error and is comparable when estimating near-surface rain rate using either NSR or NNR methods to reconstruct the reflectivity vertical profiles. Limitations, potential, and future developments of the proposed adaptive reconstruction techniques are finally discussed. Index Terms--Ground-based C-band radar, inversion techniques, radar meteorology, rain field reconstruction, rain-rate retrieval, vertical profile of reflectivity.

In this paper, we study the impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the precipitation VSF (very short-term forecast, 3 h in this study) for two severe weather events that occurred in Italy. The first case refers to a moderate and localized rainfall over central Italy that occurred on 16 September 2017. The second case occurred on 9 and 10 September 2017 and was very intense and caused damages in several geographical areas, especially in Livorno (Tuscany) where nine people died. The first case study was missed by several operational forecasts, including that performed by the model used in this paper, while the Livorno case was partially predicted by operational models. We use the RAMS@ISAC model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System at Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the Italian National Research Council), whose 3D-Var extension to the assimilation of radar reflectivity factor is shown in this paper for the first time. Results for the two cases show that the assimilation of lightning and radar reflectivity factor, especially when used together, have a significant and positive impact on the precipitation forecast. For specific time intervals, the data assimilation is of practical importance for civil protection purposes because it changes a missed forecast of intense precipitation (≥40 mm in 3 h) to a correct one. While there is an improvement of the rainfall VSF thanks to the lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation, its usefulness is partially reduced by the increase in false alarms, especially when both datasets are assimilated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the precipitation VSF (Very Short-term Forecast, 3 hours in this study) for two relevant case studies occurred over Italy. The first case refers to a moderate localised rainfall over Central Italy happened on 16 September 2017. The second case, occurred on 09 and 10 September 2017, was very intense and caused damages in several parts of Italy, while nine people died around Livorno, in Tuscany. The first case study was missed by most operational forecasts over Italy, including that performed by the model used in this paper, while the Livorno case was partially predicted by operational models. We use the RAMS@ISAC model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System at Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the Italian National Research Council), whose 3D-Var extension to the assimilation of RADAR reflectivity factor is shown in this paper. Results for the two cases show that the assimilation of lightning and radar reflectivity factor, especially when used together, have a significant and positive impact on the precipitation forecast. The improvement compared to the control model, not assimilating lightning and radar reflectivity factor, is systematic because occurs for all the Very Short-term Forecast (VSF, 3h) of the events considered. For specific time intervals, the data assimilation is of practical importance for Civil Protection purposes because it transforms a missed forecast of intense precipitation (>40mm/3h) in a correct forecast. While there is an improvement of the rainfall VSF thanks to the lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation, its impact is reduced by the increase of the false alarms in the forecast assimilating both types of data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main goals of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to retrieve parameters of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) globally. As a standard product of the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on board the GPM Core Observatory satellite, the mass-weighted mean diameter Dm and the normalized intercept parameter Nw are estimated in three dimensions at the resolution of the radar. These are two parameters of the three-parameter gamma model DSD adopted by the GPM algorithms. This study investigates the accuracy of the Dm retrieval through a comparative study of C-band ground radars (GRs) and GPM products over Italy. The reliability of the ground reference is tested by using two different approaches to estimate Dm. The results show good agreement between the ground-based and spaceborne-derived Dm, with an absolute bias being generally lower than 0.5 mm over land in stratiform precipitation for the DPR algorithm and the combined DPR–GMI algorithm. For the DPR–GMI algorithm, the good agreement extends to convective precipitation as well. Estimates of Dm from the DPR high-sensitivity (HS) Ka-band data show slightly worse results. A sensitivity study indicates that the accuracy of the Dm estimation is independent of the height above surface (not shown) and the distance from the ground radar. On the other hand, a nonuniform precipitation pattern (interpreted both as high variability and as a patchy spatial distribution) within the DPR footprint is usually associated with a significant error in the DPR-derived estimate of Dm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent explosive volcanic eruptions recorded worldwide (e.g. Hekla in 2000, Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, Cordòn-Caulle in 2011) demonstrated the necessity for a better assessment of the eruption source parameters (ESPs; e.g. column height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration and total grain-size distribution - TGSD) to reduce the uncertainties associated with the far-travelling airborne ash mass. Volcanological studies started to integrate observations to use more realistic numerical inputs, crucial for taking robust volcanic risk mitigation actions. On 23 November 2013, Etna (Italy) erupted, producing a 10 km height plume, from which two volcanic clouds were observed at different altitudes from satellites (SEVIRI, MODIS). One was retrieved as mainly composed of very fine ash (i.e. PM20) and the second one as made of ice/SO2 droplets (i.e. not measurable in terms of ash mass). An atypical north-easterly wind direction transported the tephra from Etna towards the Calabria and Apulia regions (southern Italy), permitting tephra sampling in proximal (i.e. ∼5-25 km from the source) and medial areas (i.e. the Calabria region, ∼160 km). A primary TGSD was derived from the field measurement analysis, but the paucity of data (especially related to the fine ash fraction) prevented it from being entirely representative of the initial magma fragmentation. To better constrain the TGSD assessment, we also estimated the distribution from the X-band weather radar data. We integrated the field and radar-derived TGSDs by inverting the relative weighting averages to best fit the tephra loading measurements. The resulting TGSD is used as input for the FALL3D tephra dispersal model to reconstruct the whole tephra loading. Furthermore, we empirically modified the integrated TGSD by enriching the PM20 classes until the numerical results were able to reproduce the airborne ash mass retrieved from satellite data. The resulting TGSD is inverted by best-fitting the field, ground-based and satellite-based measurements. The results indicate a total erupted mass of 1.2X109 kg, being similar to the fieldderived value of 1.3X109 kg and an initial PM20 fraction between 3.6 and 9.0 wt %, constituting the tail of the TGSD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation retrievals exploiting the available passive microwave (PMW) observations by cross-track and conically scanning satellite-borne radiometers in the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission era are used to monitor and characterize heavy precipitation events that occurred during the Fall 2014 in Italy. Different physically based PMW precipitation retrieval algorithms are used: the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) and Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR), used operationally in the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard PROFiling algorithm (GPROF). Results show that PMW precipitation retrievals from the GPM constellation of radiometers provide a reliable and quantitative description of the precipitation (instantaneous and on the daily scale) throughout the evolution of the precipitation systems in the Mediterranean region. The comparable relative errors among gauges, radar, and combination of radiometer overpasses legitimize the use of PMW estimates as a valuable and independent tool for monitoring precipitation. The pixel-based comparison with dual-polarization radars and raingauges indicates the ability of the different sensors to identify different precipitation areas and regimes (0.60 < \,\textPOD < 0.76; 0.28 < FAR < 0.45; 0.42 < ETS < 0.59;-1.6\;\text{mm}/\text{h} < ME < 1.1\;\text{mm}/\text{h}$, with values depending on the radiometer and on the precipitation product). This is particularly relevant in the presence of complex orography in proximity of coastal areas, as for the analyzed cases. The different characteristics of the radiometers (i.e., viewing geometry, spatial resolution, channel assortment) and of retrieval techniques, as well as the limitations of the ground-based reference datasets, are taken into consideration in the evaluation of the accuracy and consistency of the retrievals. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Volcanic activity is observed worldwide with a variety of ground and space-based remote sensing instruments, each with advantages and drawbacks. No single system can give a comprehensive description of eruptive activity, and so, a multi-sensor approach is required. This work integrates infrared and microwave volcanic ash retrievals obtained from the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)-Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), the polar-orbiting Aqua-MODIS and ground-based weather radar. The expected outcomes are improvements in satellite volcanic ash cloud retrieval (altitude, mass, aerosol optical depth and effective radius), the generation of new satellite products (ash concentration and particle number density in the thermal infrared) and better characterization of volcanic eruptions (plume altitude, total ash mass erupted and particle number density from thermal infrared to microwave). This approach is the core of the multi-platform volcanic ash cloud estimation procedure being developed within the European FP7-APhoRISM project. The Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) volcano lava fountaining event of 23 November 2013 was considered as a test case. The results of the integration show the presence of two volcanic cloud layers at different altitudes. The improvement of the volcanic ash cloud altitude leads to a mean difference between the SEVIRI ash mass estimations, before and after the integration, of about the 30%. Moreover, the percentage of the airborne "fine" ash retrieved from the satellite is estimated to be about 1%-2% of the total ash emitted during the eruption. Finally, all of the estimated parameters (volcanic ash cloud altitude, thickness and total mass) were also validated with ground-based visible camera measurements, HYSPLIT forward trajectories, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite data and tephra deposits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rain path attenuation correction is a challenging task for quantitative use of weather radar measurements at frequencies higher than S band. The proportionality relationship between specific attenuation αhh (specific differential attenuation αdp) and specific differential phase Kdp is the basis for simple path-integrated attenuation correction using differential phase Φdp. However, the coefficients of proportionality are known to be dependent upon temperature, on the one hand, and shape and raindrop size distribution, on the other hand. To solve this problem, a Bayesian classification scheme is proposed to empirically find the prevailing rain regime and adapt the Φdp-based method. The proposed approach herein is compared with other polarimetric techniques currently available in the literature. Several episodes observed in the Paris, France, area by the C-band dual-polarized weather radar operating in Trappes (France) are analyzed and results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operating a meteorological radar is generally a challenging task when in presence of a significant beam blockage as in complex orography. Apart from enhanced ground clutter, mountainous obstructions of the radar beam can significantly reduce the radar visibility and, thus, its monitoring capabilities. Self-consistent adaptive techniques to reconstruct vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPR) and near-surface rain-rate fields' from high-elevation reflectivity bins are here proposed, compared, and tested for ranges up to 60 km. The methodology is based on statistical estimators trained by a large reflectivity volumetric datasets, classified into stratiform and convective rain regimes and resampled onto a uniform Cartesian grid by means of a modified Cressman technique. For what concerns reflectivity vertical profiles, two methods, respectively named statistical nonlinear reconstruction (NSR) and neural network reconstruction (NNR), are considered. The NSR method is based on the principal component analysis, applied to the radar dataset, in order to extract significant reflectivity-profile variance. A retrieval technique, based on a nonlinear multiple regression scheme, is then used to infer near-surface reflectivity from available high-altitude echoes at a given range. The NNR is based on a three-layer artificial neural network trained by means a feed forward backpropagation algorithm. For what concerns the near-surface rain retrieval, besides a power-law reflectivity-rain-rate (ZR) approach, a three-layer neural network technique is also set up in order to estimate surface rain rate from reconstructed VPR. The proposed reconstruction techniques are here illustrated by using volumetric data acquired by the C-band Doppler single-polarization radar, operated in L'.Aquila, Italy. A case study, related to a rainfall event that occurred during fall 2000, is discussed. Using a test area within 60 km from the radar site and simulating the presence of beam obstructions, a comparison of NSR and NNR with conventional area average reconstruction techniques shows that the percentage improvement of both NSR and NNR approaches is significant, both for the error bias (by 30% to more than 50%, depending on attitude) and variance (by 10% to more than 20%). A sensitivity test indicates that the VPR reconstruction procedure is fairly robust to missing data, especially in terms of error bias. The comparison of estimated radar rainfall with rain gauge data measurement is also illustrated. The mean field bias closer to its optimal value and an error variance much smaller is obtained when neural network techniques are applied than with conventional ZR methods for both techniques of reconstruction. With respect to the latter, the obtained improvement is more than 40% in terms of root mean square error and is comparable when estimating near-surface rain rate using either NSR or NNR methods to reconstruct the reflectivity vertical profiles. Limitations, potential, and future developments of the proposed adaptive reconstruction techniques are finally discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy and localized summer events are very hard to predict and, at the same time, potentially dangerous for people and properties. This paper focuses on an event occurred on 15 July 2020 in Palermo, the largest city of Sicily, causing about 120 mm of rainfall in 3 h. The aim is to investigate the event predictability and a potential way to improve the precipitation forecast. To reach this aim, lightning (LDA) and radar reflectivity data assimilation (RDA) was applied. LDA was able to trigger deep convection over Palermo, with high precision, whereas the RDA had a key role in the prediction of the amount of rainfall. The simultaneous assimilation of both data sources gave the best results. An alert for a moderate–intense forecast could have been issued one hour and a half before the storm developed over the city, even if predicting only half of the total rainfall. A satisfactory prediction of the amount of rainfall could have been issued at 14:30 UTC, when precipitation was already affecting the city. Although the study is centered on a single event, it highlights the need for rapidly updated forecast cycles with data assimilation at the local scale, for a better prediction of similar events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, precipitation estimates derived from the Italian ground radar network (IT GR) are used in conjunction with Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) measurements to develop an operational oriented algorithm (RAdar INfrared Blending algorithm for Operational Weather monitoring (RAINBOW)) able to provide precipitation pattern and intensity. The algorithm evaluates surface precipitation over five geographical boxes (in which the study area is divided). It is composed of two main modules that exploit a second-degree polynomial relationship between the SEVIRI brightness temperature at 10.8 µm TB10.8 and the precipitation rate estimates from IT GR. These relationships are applied to each acquisition of SEVIRI in order to provide a surface precipitation map. The results, based on a number of case studies, show good performance of RAINBOW when it is compared with ground reference (precipitation rate map from interpolated rain gauge measurements), with high Probability of Detection (POD) and low False Alarm Ratio (FAR) values, especially for light to moderate precipitation range. At the same time, the mean error (ME) values are about 0 mmh−1, while root mean square error (RMSE) is about 2 mmh−1, highlighting a limited variability of the RAINBOW estimations. The precipitation retrievals from RAINBOW have been also compared with the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H SAF) official microwave (MW)/infrared (IR) combined product (P-IN-SEVIRI). RAINBOW shows better performances than P-IN-SEVIRI, in terms of both detection and estimates of precipitation fields when they are compared to the ground reference. RAINBOW has been designed as an operational product, to provide complementary information to that of the national radar network where the IT GR coverage is absent, or the quality (expressed in terms of Quality Index (QI)) of the RAINBOW estimates is low. The aim of RAINBOW is to complement the radar and rain gauge network supporting the operational precipitation monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 10 October 2018 an intense storm, characterized by heavy rainfall, hit the Sardinia island, reaching a peak of 452 mm of rain measured in 24 h. Among others, two particularly intense phases were registered between 3 and 6 UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), and between 18 and 24 UTC. The forecast of this case study is challenging because the precipitation was heavy and localized. In particular, the meteorological model used in this paper, provides a good prediction only for the second period over the eastern part of the Sardinia island. In this work, we study the impact of lightning data assimilation and horizontal grid resolution on the Very Short-term Forecast (VSF, 3 and 1 h) for this challenging case, using the RAMS@ISAC meteorological model. The comparison between the 3 h VSF control run and the simulations with lightning data assimilation shows the considerable improvement given by lightning data assimilation, especially for the precipitation that occurred in the eastern part of the island. Reducing the VSF range to 1 h, resulted in higher model performance with a good precipitation prediction over eastern and south-central Sardinia. In addition, the comparison between simulated and observed reflectivity shows an important improvement of simulations with lightning data assimilation compared to the control forecast. However, simulations assimilating lightning overestimated the precipitation in the last part of the day. The increasing of the horizontal resolution to 2 km grid spacing reduces the false alarms and improves the model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates comprise various measurement scales: from rain gauges and ground-based radars to the satellite rainfall retrievals. The quality of satellite rainfall products has improved significantly in recent decades; however, such algorithms require validation studies using observational rainfall data. For this reason, this study aims to apply the H-SAF consolidated radar data processing to the X-band radar used in the CHUVA campaigns and apply the well established H-SAF validation procedure to these data and verify the quality of EUMETSAT H-SAF operational passive microwave precipitation products in two regions of Brazil (Vale do Paraíba and Manaus). These products are based on two rainfall retrieval algorithms: the physically based Bayesian Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD algorithm) for SSMI/S sensors and the Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval algorithm (PNPR) for cross-track scanning radiometers (AMSU-A/AMSU-B/MHS sensors) and for the ATMS sensor. These algorithms, optimized for Europe, Africa and the Southern Atlantic region, provide estimates for the MSG full disk area. Firstly, the radar data was treated with an overall quality index which includes corrections for different error sources like ground clutter, range distance, rain-induced attenuation, among others. Different polarimetric and non-polarimetric QPE algorithms have been tested and the Vulpiani algorithm (hereafter, R q 2 V u 15 ) presents the best precipitation retrievals when compared with independent rain gauges. Regarding the results from satellite-based algorithms, generally, all rainfall retrievals tend to detect a larger precipitation area than the ground-based radar and overestimate intense rain rates for the Manaus region. Such behavior is related to the fact that the environmental and meteorological conditions of the Amazon region are not well represented in the algorithms. Differently, for the Vale do Paraíba region, the precipitation patterns were well detected and the estimates are in accordance with the reference as indicated by the low mean bias values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the interest on snowfall remote sensing and quantitative precipitation estimation is becoming a popular topic by both the scientific and operational communities. As a matter of fact, snow plays a key role in the hydrological cycle and Earth energy budget and clearly represents a meteorological hazard that can seriously compromise human activities and properties. In this study, we used a dual-polarization X-band weather radar to quantify the near-surface liquid equivalent snowfall rate, proposing a new parameterization based on the use of radar reflectivity factor and specific differential phase shift. This effort adds to several recent works, mainly focused on S-band weather radar systems, demonstrating that the use of the radar specific differential phase shift (K dp) is able to enhance the estimation precision with respect to the more customary approaches making use of radar reflectivity factor alone. To demonstrate this concept also at X-band, some case studies were collected from December 2018 to May 2019 in the Southern Apennine Mountains in the area of Naples (Italy). They were used to compare the proposed radar based liquid equivalent snowfall rate estimations, based on Z and K dp , with reference laser-optical disdrometer time series collected in the close reference site of Montevergine observatory. Findings show that also at X band the use of K dp produces a better score between the radar-derived liquid equivalent snowfall rate and the reference one from the disdrometer. • The use of specific differential phase shift improves the radar-based estimation of snowfall rate. • Snow estimators based on equivalent radar reflectivity factor can be corrupted by melting layer effects. • In snow conditions, strong horizontal winds can corrupt laser-optical disdrometer measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]