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Sub-federal units in federal systems increasingly participate in international trade policy-making, a domain that historically represents an exclusive jurisdiction of the federal level. A first strand of research emphasised exogenous factors, most notably the changing scope and depth of trade agreements and social contestation, to explain this trend. This study, by contrast, contributes to more recent efforts that focus on endogenous factors to elucidate variation in terms of how and with what implications sub-federal units have entrenched themselves in trade policy governance. The paper makes two contributions. First, it introduces a new theoretical argument suggesting that ideational and institutional feedback effects can explain variation in sub-federal trade policy-making. Second, the paper tests this framework by using two contrasting cases of federalism: Canada and Germany. The study shows that in Canada intergovernmental institutions facilitating sub-federal participation in trade policy-making had to be created through layering, while in Germany existing institutions were activated through conversion. Although both patterns of institutional change have empowered sub-federal units, they differ in terms of their robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article concerns the increasingly significant role of subnational entities in international relations, using Nova Scotia's engagement with China as a case study. It highlights the period from 2010 to 2023, during which Nova Scotia leveraged its key export—lobsters—to establish and deepen economic and diplomatic ties with China, thereby carving out an influential role in the broader Canada-China relationship. The article provides an overview of subnational diplomacy's growing importance in international relations. The theoretical framework centres on subnational actors in global diplomacy and examines how Nova Scotia pursued independent diplomatic efforts with China, focusing on economic interests. The case study investigates lobster exports as the cornerstone of Nova Scotia-China relations, driving both economic benefits and diplomatic engagement. Finally, it touches on the economic outcomes for Nova Scotia and the political dynamics between federal and provincial authorities, concluding with broader implications for Canada's foreign policy and subnational actors in international diplomacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign aid, in theory, is expected to mitigate constraints that impede the economic development of recipient countries. At the same time that help is committed, donors are seemingly taking actions that are harmful to developing economies in obvious ways. An example is the tacit circumvention of the putative rules-based global trading system through contingent protection activities. In this article, it is postulated that, on one hand aid-for-trade (AfT) is expected to have positive impact on the exports of aid recipients by better integration into the global trading order, on the other hand, aid provider (donor) curtails access to its own markets by actuating contingent protection against the recipient (exporter). Using contingent protection cases data from 2003 to 2018 (a 15-year period) against 106 recipient countries of the United States of America's AfT, this study finds a significant and positive impact of AfT on the surge in contingent protection activities. This effect is entirely driven by the aid for economic infrastructure and services, while the other main category of AfT- production sector, has no discernible effect on the rise in protection against the recipient. To examine the heterogeneity in donor decisions, this study is expanded to other traditional donors like Australia, Canada, the European Union (EU) and New Zealand. This article finds that Australia behaves similar to the USA; however, for Canada and the EU, the relationship between aid and market access is not statistically significant. JEL Codes: F1, F35, O19 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the resources and capabilities that determine firm-level adjustments after a sudden unexpected closure of a major export market. We focus on the effects of the 2014 Russian embargo on Western food exporters using the example of Estonian firms. The paper applies a novel multimethod approach consisting of Study I quantifying the embargo effect on the trade diversion of firms that had exported embargoed goods to Russia, and Study II conducting a multiple case study into three dairy exporters highly affected by the embargo. Study I employs a difference-in-difference model with matched exporters of embargoed goods as treatment. Study II builds on extensive document analysis that serves as input for interviews with the CEOs of the sample dairy firms. We find that pre-shock productivity is on average a good predictor of post-shock firm trade diversion (Study I), however, we specify that the key firm-level resources and capabilities necessary for successful post-shock adjustments might not be reflected in the standard quantitative productivity level measures (Study II). We conclude that key firm-level resources and capabilities for embargo-resilience are the quality of exporting experience, competitive product-market matching, absorptive capacity, and managerial vision and empowerment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use unique enterprise survey data to explore the export behavior of firms in Tunisia, a small, trade-dependent country with a complex policy environment regarding exporting. Firms may export directly or indirectly through intermediaries, and can also sell to ‘offshore’ firms, which are export manufacturing firms with special legal status. Firm size, a proxy for productivity, is strongly associated with exporting of either type as well as with sales to offshore firms. In contrast to some studies, exporting is not positively associated with firm age (i.e., experience). Domestic-owned firms are more likely to use intermediaries to export while foreign-owned firms as well as those with more educated managers are more likely to export directly. Multinomial logit results reject the hypothesis of progression from indirect exports through direct plus indirect exporting and then to direct-only exporting as firm size increases; instead, the largest exporting firms are more likely to combine direct and indirect exporting, possibly to reduce risk. The findings from this study – the first to examine the heterogeneity of exporting behavior in Tunisia – reveal a complex picture of such behavior and confirm the importance of trade intermediaries for less sophisticated firms (those with lower manager education and internet access), pointing to potential measures to encourage exporting among such enterprises. The findings also suggest that efforts to encourage exporting may also improve firms’ ability to sell to ‘offshore’ firms, enhancing the so far elusive linkages of that sector with the rest of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the long-term interplay between trade policy, energy efficiency, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in South Korea, using data spanning from 1985 to 2023. By applying the Fourier autoregressive distributed lag (FARDL) model, the analysis reveals that while trade liberalization initially leads to a 0.23% increase in CO2 emissions for each 1% rise in trade openness—driven by the energy demands of industrial expansion—integrating energy efficiency standards within trade agreements helps mitigate these effects over time; this results in a 0.26% reduction in emissions for every 1% improvement in energy efficiency. The study also highlights the dual role of foreign direct investment (FDI), which contributes to a short-term 0.08% rise in emissions but significantly reduces carbon intensity in the long term by facilitating the adoption of cleaner technologies. These findings underscore the importance of innovation and FDI in decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation. The study advocates for the incorporation of energy efficiency measures into trade agreements and the prioritization of green technologies, recommending strategies that could enable South Korea to reduce its CO2 emissions by up to 40% by 2030. This research positions South Korea as a key actor in achieving global climate goals while maintaining economic competitiveness, offering valuable insights into the balance between sustainable development and industrial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first two years after Biden's election, there was considerable enthusiasm on the left for the administration's embrace of a larger, more active economic role for the federal government. I was among those who saw both the ambitions of the Build Back Better bill and the self-conscious embrace of industrial policy as an unexpectedly sharp break with the economic policy consensus of the past thirty years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our article analyses the enduring influence of Donald Trump's populist narrative on United States–China trade policies under Joe Biden's administration. We extend the literature on the effect of populism and populist leaders by examining what happens after a populist leader leaves office, and to what extent an expectation of populism perpetuates a populist narrative despite a change in leadership. In the case of US–China trade, the Biden administration that followed Trump's has carried on with a populist trade narrative and protectionist policies towards China, despite predictions that the US would return to 'normal' economic relations after Trump left office. Through textual analysis of speeches by both administrations, we identify a narrative coherence between Trump's nationalist–populist discourse and the trade rhetoric of the Biden administration, revealing a legacy of narrative expectation that constrains policy choices. Our findings demonstrate how Trump's populist framework persists, shaping White House discourse and policy decisions in the economic realm even after he has left office, and we showcase the enduring effect of populist language in political spheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing literature on the behaviour of rising powers in global trade governance has yielded inconclusive evidence about their role and impact. This article contributes to this literature by examining China's role in global digital trade governance, an issue area which so far has not received sufficient scholarly attention. Specifically, it addresses the following question: as a self-proclaimed leader of the developing world in digital development, to what extent do its preferences and negotiation approach align with the interests of other developing countries? Analysing China's participation in three sets of negotiations using process tracing, the article argues that China's dual identity both as a self-identified developing country and as a rising power has contributed to its strategic ambivalence. In principle China supports a development-oriented approach to digital trade governance, calling attention to issues such as the digital divide and preserving developing countries' policy space on data localization consistent with its domestic regulatory approaches. Yet China's interest in promoting Chinese technology firms' global expansion leads to increasing divergence with other developing countries on issues such as the e-commerce customs duty moratorium and the global taxation of digital firms, paradoxically increasing its interest alignment with developed countries and limiting its support for fundamental reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past six years, the Sino-US trade war has not only reshaped the relationship between the world's two largest economies but also profoundly influenced the global economic and trade patterns. This paper reviews the background, process, and implications of the Sino-US trade war, examining its impact on China, the United States, and the broader global trade landscape across various socioeconomic dimensions. We begin by reviewing the development of Sino-US trade relations in the past 20 years. Next we detail the background and evolution of the trade war. We then discuss the economic consequences of the conflict, including the effect of tariff increases on product prices, employment, investment, consumption, and welfare. Finally, we explore the reshaping of supply chains in the aftermath of the trade conflict, and the interaction between trade policies and industrial policies within the context of the Sino-US trade war. Existing literature indicates that the Sino-US trade war has resulted in significant welfare losses for both countries, with surprisingly little impact on employment. The tariffs have not achieved the intended outcome set by policymakers. Specifically, the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on China have neither effectively addressed trade imbalances nor brought manufacturing jobs back onshore. Our paper offers a new perspective on the complexity of the current international trade conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a firm‐level measure of exposure to trade policy shifts that combines characteristics (tradability of goods, share of output exported and corporate risk disclosures) with information from stock returns. We show that the measure reliably captures out‐of‐sample differences in price responses and sentiment related to trade tensions, both in US and international data. Differences across firms are economically important with return effects of 140 bp around tariff announcements. We argue that such a multidimensional measure is a useful tool for future research on trade policy risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomske Ideje i Praksa is the property of Centar za Izdavacku Delatnost Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Beogradu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Since Brexit, the UK has been responsible for its own trade policymaking rather than inputting into the collective policy of the European Union. This paper starts by sketching how that policy has been developed and implemented and how it is turning out. Overall, it is not very complimentary about the UK Government's efforts and so it then moves on to consider how we might do better. One dimension of this is how trade policy could be made more inclusive in formulation. I propose three (sets of) institutional reforms: increasing Parliamentary (and other) scrutiny of the government's trade policy plans; after examining how the UK public thinks about trade policy, it asks whether (how) one should take into account public attitudes to trade policy issues; finally, it argues for creating an independent source of advice and analysis on trade policy. It concludes by noting that while recent history has been disappointing, trade policy by any government would be improved by the reforms recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the transition of workers in the MENA region between formal and informal jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigates whether trade policy could be adopted as a measure to enhance the transition of workers from the informal to the formal sector. We use the combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey constructed by the Economic Research Forum for 5 MENA countries and 11 sectors. This topic is timely and critical for the MENA region where informal employment is widespread, applied tariffs are still high, and female labor participation is low. Our results show that: first, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increased probability for the worker to become formal and this effect is more pronounced post-pandemic. Second, fewer trade restrictions are linked to an increase in the probability of becoming formal for blue collars only, with an insignificant effect on white collars. Third, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increase in the probability of men to become formal, with an insignificant effect on women. Finally, the effect of trade policy on job formality depends on the sectoral occupation of the individual with this effect being more pronounced in agriculture and manufacturing relatively to services sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper concerns implications of the WTO rules on domestic regulations and trade policy measures and analises trade policy options available for a WTO member-state under the WTO rules that may maintain benefiting from the WTO membership. It describes effects of the WTO disciplines on institutional structure of the member-states and analyses issues relating to the formulation of the WTO compatible trade policy measures and mechanisms of their application, examines possibilities for the utilisation of contingency protection measures available under the WTO law. Issues of institution building, trade regime formation and creation of an adequate normative basis of the trade policy formulation is also touched upon based on such analysis, given that the mentioned aspects of the WTO membership is a necessary condition for a successful WTO compliant trade policy. At the same time, it also becomes important to ensure achievment of the development and welfare interests and avoid of subjecting foreign trade measures to private interests by way of establishment of the appropriate procedures and legal environment. Therefore, shaping trade regime and legal procedures in a way enabling formulation and implementation of measures serving the community interests and excluding or minimising utilisation therof in the interests of the private interest groups aquire utmost importance. Based on this, the paper analyses interactions between the rules, practices and institutions comprising the WTO law and the trade regimes of the memberstates and explores possibilities of establishing, conducting and adaptation of the WTO complaint trade policies capable of ensuring acievement of social and econimic development goals. Therefore, the paper explores the trade policy regulation mechanisms of the states within the normative and institutional framework established by the WTO law, as well as the possibilities of introducing economic and social development-oriented trade policies by the member-states and candidates for membership in accordance with the WTO law. For these purpose, the legal and institutional aspects of the WTO affecting formation of trade policies and the application of trade measures by the member states and consequencies of mutual institutional influences between the WTO law and the trade policies of the member states are highlighted, principal legal and institutional effects arising from the WTO agreements have been analysed, experience of the WTO members in trade policy formulation and implementation have been summarized, deficiencies and shortfalls in the internal legal systems and institutional structures that may arise in connection with the membership in the WTO identified based on analysis of the experience of the WTO members, recommendations and proposals regarding legal adaptation and institutional changes that may be considered necessary or appropriate in connection with WTO membership have been formulated. It is shown that membership in the WTO results in long-term effects on the country's economy, and these effects concern primarily the legal regulation of trade relations. WTO membership, creates the need to constantly adapt the application of trade policy measures to the WTO requirements. The paper asserts that specific times, durations and purposes of trade measures applicable in accordance with the WTO law depend on the specifics of the objectives and the issues to be resolved in a specific political and economic conditions and, therefore, must be determined individually in each case. The trade policy in such case needs to be purposefully and organically reconciled with general macroeconomic measures such as tax policy, labor market regulations, investment environment, currency policy, etc., in order to be able to maintain economic efficience and social welfare under the WTO rules, otherwise it is possible that membership in the WTO can become a source of economic and social tensions. WTO membership may vreate serious economic and social risks. Mitigation of such risks requires adaptation of the legal regulation, as well as institutional and power structures. Solutions should accomodate specific political, economic and social situations, institutional structure and would require involvement of adequate fianacial and intellectual resources. The paper also toches upon the issues of transparency, market competition, good governance methods, market inadequacy and market protection possibilities. As an overall conclusion, it is asserted that adherence to the WTO rules does not ensure the increase in the level of well-being, economic and social development, but only creates the basis for it. Achieving these goals may not be possible through membership in the WTO, but through appropriate organizational structure taking into account the membership requirements, as well as thoughtful decisions on the use of opportunities provided by the WTO. Although the requirements are numerous, the freedom to decide about these requirements is not small. This last aspect is a key issue to consider in terms of the impact of the WTO on trade policy and market access conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) data set and documents emergent patterns of policy intervention during 2023 associated with the return of industrial policy. The data show that the recent wave of new industrial policy activity is primarily driven by advanced economies and that subsidies are the most employed instrument. Trade restrictions on imports and exports are more frequently used by emerging market and developing economies. Strategic competitiveness is the dominant motive governments give for these measures, but other objectives such as climate change, resilience and national security are on the rise. In exploratory regressions, we find that implemented measures are correlated with the past use of measures by other governments in the same sector, pointing to the tit‐for‐tat nature of industrial policy. Furthermore, domestic political economy factors and macroeconomic conditions correlate with the use of industrial policy measures. We intend for the NIPO to be a publicly available resource to help monitor the evolution and effects of industrial policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Bulletin of Ablai Khan KazUIRandWL: Series 'International Relations & Regional Studies' is the property of Kazakh Ablai Khan University of International Relations & World Languages and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Trading actors like the European Union (EU) are increasingly seen as geopoliticising trade policy, but such assertions may not capture the extent to which the Directorate General for Trade (DG Trade) uses this policy to achieve security objectives. This article investigates changes over time in justifications for trade policy by differentiating between how the EU and DG Trade use frames – articulated in four EU trade strategies with two DG Trade strategic plans and 10 annual management plans – to propose solutions in response to the geoeconomic turn. This article finds that, whilst DG Trade's discourse continues to reflect the dominant market liberal frame, geopoliticising pressures are encouraging the emergence of an EU counter‐frame linking trade to non‐trade issues and a reframing of the counter‐frame that increasingly links trade and security policy. As a result, the EU's framing of trade policy resembles deep geopoliticisation, whilst DG Trade's framing resembles reluctant geopoliticisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Niobium, an irreplaceable raw material in high-tech industries, boasts a complex global trade network across its industrial chain. This study, leveraging 2022 trade data and inter-linkage dependencies within the niobium industry, constructs a multi-layer network model and simulates the impact and propagation of supply disruptions under two realistic scenarios: Restrictions on primary product exports and total export bans. Our findings reveal that: (1) Supply constraints on primary products cascade through the middle and downstream trade networks, impacting the final product layer more severely, especially for countries with limited ability to cope with disruptions. (2) China, Malaysia, Brazil, and the United States emerge as crucial risk sources, with their export restrictions potentially triggering a complete collapse of trade networks across all layers. (3) Hidden risk sources include Asian countries like Japan and Korea in the primary product layer, while European nations like the United Kingdom and Germany, despite playing a limited role in upstream disruptions, significantly influence the intermediate and final product layers. These findings underscore the importance of developing feasible systemic risk mitigation strategies, optimizing industrial structures, fostering global cooperation, and ultimately bolstering the robustness and resilience of the global niobium industry chain.

Background: There is lingering uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a United States (US) Trade Act enacted in 2000 and set to expire in 2025. However, the US is a traditional trading partner of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), and all SACU members predominantly access the US market through AGOA. Aim: This article assesses the welfare, macroeconomic and trade effects of the potential Southern African Customs Union-United States Free Trade Agreement (SACU-US FTA). Setting: The expiry of AGOA and the uncertainty surrounding its renewal present trade policy challenges for AGOA beneficiary countries, particularly the SACU nations. Method: The article employs the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate a scenario where SACU and the US eliminate all import taxes and export subsidies in their bilateral trade. Results: The GTAP-CGE model simulation results reveal welfare gains of US$316.47 million for SACU and US$678.01 million for the US with favourable macroeconomic and trade effects for both parties. Net trade creation is estimated at US$3.06 billion. Conclusion: The US interest in the potential SACU-US FTA rests in enhanced access to a smaller, but highly protected market where the European Union (EU) has already concluded preferential trade arrangements. Correspondingly, SACU aims for enriched access to a much larger, though less protected, market. Contribution: While most studies on FTAs focus on distributional effects using CGE and partial equilibrium models, there is limited research on the welfare, macroeconomic, and trade impacts of the potential SACU-US FTA. This article, therefore, stimulates debate and navigate domestic policies on the welfare, macroeconomic and trade implications of the prospective trade agreement.

The objective of this paper is to review the opportunities and challenges posed by international trade on agriculture in developing nations by harvesting information and data from online and library sources. The review highlights the key benefits of trade, including expanded market access, economic development, and technology transfer, which enhance agricultural productivity and global food security. Countries engaged in agricultural trade benefit from diverse markets, improved access to modern farming technologies, and increased export revenues. However, challenges such as trade barriers, price volatility, environmental sustainability concerns, and the vulnerability of smallholder farmers persist. The review underscores the importance of balanced trade policies that promote equitable benefits, protect local agricultural sectors, and encourage sustainable farming practices. It also calls for further research to evaluate the long-term impacts of trade agreements on local agricultural systems and foster international cooperation to address shared challenges. Overall, the review argues for policies that enhance the resilience and inclusiveness of agricultural trade while ensuring sustainability for future generations.

This study employed computable general equilibrium policy simulations to examine the impact of import tariff liberalization on socioeconomic outcomes including living standards, cost of living, gross domestic product (GDP) from expenditure, total investment expenditure, intermediate input demand, output, value‐added, tariff revenue, sales tax revenue, indirect tax revenue, direct income tax revenue, factor income tax revenue, and factor demand. Findings from the simulations have policy implications touching on a need to embrace reciprocal tariff liberalization under agreements like strategic trade and investment partnerships and economic partnership agreements as they are associated with welfare gains, reduction in cost of living, and GDP growth. Targeted policy incentives could be directed to specific domestic sectors since tariff liberalization has negative impacts on investment expenditure. Incentives regarding intermediate inputs should be directed to the manufacturing and services sectors for liberalization of agrifood commodities. Targeted policy incentives should be directed to the manufacturing and services sectors which experience decrease in output with tariff reductions. Liberalization of manufactured commodities should be accompanied by value‐added incentives directed to the agrifood and home production–home consumption sectors. For the liberalization of manufactured commodities, targeted policy incentives should be directed to the services sector which experiences job losses while for the liberalization of tariffs on imports of agrifood commodities, targeted policy incentives should be directed to the agrifood and the home production–home consumption sectors, which also lose jobs. These targeted policy incentives could support industrial activity and compensate for revenue loss, especially from customs duties. Related Articles: Gruber, Lloyd. 2013. "Trade, Growth, Poverty, and Politics: Toward a Unified Theory." Politics & Policy 41(5): 723–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12034. Onyango, Gedion, and Japheth Otieno Ondiek. 2022. "Open Innovation During the COVID‐19 Pandemic Policy Responses in South Africa and Kenya." Politics & Policy 50(5): 1008–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12490. Soto, Gloria. 2012. "Environmental Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization under NAFTA." Politics & Policy 40(3): 471–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00354.x. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countless socially responsible trade initiatives have emerged in recent years offering an uncertain mixture of token and substantive changes. After decades of battles over free trade, this marks a significant shift, challenging established debates over free versus regulated markets by promoting labour, gender, human, and environmental rights through trade agreements. This reorientation contains complex contradictions, with trade justice groups conceding to the popularity of trade while simultaneously insisting on a new vision of what trade is 'about.' Drawing on the idea of trade fetishism, this article argues that the desire for trade involves not only its material motivations, but its seductive content as a fetishised object of global capital, offering the fantasy of 'trade' as a symbolic source of pleasure. Through the case of the new NAFTA 2.0, it points to the relevance of trade politics that aspires not to overcome trade fetishism, but, as Lucas Pohl (2022) suggests, to 'get with' it. Through a trade justice ratchet mechanism, advocates have pushed for unanticipated changes, while also ceding to the limitations of the current order. The outcome is a process of contesting the symbolic content of what trade is and is not about, with significant material and policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how firm heterogeneity plays a role in trade deflection effects when exporters exit trading partners' markets with trade-restrictive measures and deflect exports toward third markets with less stringent ones. We develop a Cournot-type three-country theoretical framework that highlights the role of firm productivity in trade deflection effects of trade-restrictive measures and empirically examine research hypotheses using a firm–product–destination level panel data of Korean exporting firms during the 1996–2010 period. We find that highly productive firms facing higher tariffs are more likely to deflect export to new third-country markets with lower tariffs as alternatives. However, once they enter the third destination, the positive effect of tariffs on the deflection of trade volume is less prominent for highly productive firms due to a lower trade destruction effect for them. Our results imply that the magnitude of trade deflection at both the intensive and extensive margins can be heterogeneous across firm productivity and multi-destination status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Trade Organization's (WTO's) Dispute Settlement Mechanism has been rendered ineffective by the refusal of the United States to allow appointments to its Appellate Body. The implicit reason for this poor state of affairs is the desire of the United States to protect its steel sector under the WTO's national security exception. The arguments made by the United States in this regard are mostly spurious and reflect its status as a current bad faith actor within the WTO. The posture of the United States is undermining both the effectiveness and legitimacy of this important trade institution. This article examines both the events leading up to this situation, the commercial interests behind them, and their legitimacy under WTO law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major economic rationale for trade agreements is limiting mutually harmful terms-of-trade externalities. We analyse the impact of market power on tariff commitments of original and acceded WTO members. As countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways. To quantify the economic significance of our estimates, we compare actual and predicted tariff commitments under current market power. We find that tariff cuts required to reflect current economic conditions would amount to up to $26.4 billion – nearly 10% of global tariff costs. In the past, the GATT/WTO system has updated tariff commitments through periodic 'rounds', and our findings support the long-overdue revival of the WTO's negotiation function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural quantitative work in international economics typically models trade costs as a log‐linear function of exogenous trade‐policy variables. We propose a structural approach that allows for a nonparametric relationship and for treating tariff and nontariff trade‐policy variables as potentially endogenous. The data reject the assumption of log‐linearity of trade costs in both tariff‐ and nontariff‐policy variables. We assess the effects of a unilateral increase of US tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points and document that the estimated effects on real bilateral trade‐flow changes would be substantially underestimated by standard approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Central Asian Economic Review is the property of Narxoz University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Our understanding of the role of firms in the making of European Union (EU) trade policy remains partial. This article contributes to expanding this literature by investigating under what conditions we observe more firm‐centric lobbying, compared to business associational lobbying, in EU trade policy. We advance the arguments that firm‐centric political lobbying in EU trade policy‐making is a function of both industry and country‐level characteristics. Relying on an original dataset of lobbying contacts with the EU Trade Commissioner, his or her cabinet members and the Director‐General between 2014 and 2018, we find that the likelihood of firm‐centric lobbying increases in (1) EU industries displaying high levels of multinational corporations' activity, global sourcing of intermediates and product differentiation and (2) countries characterized as liberal market economies. Besides showing that firm‐centric models of trade travel well in the EU context, we contribute to advancing the understanding of how domestic political institutions affect the politics of trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates whether trade policy instruments—tariffs—strengthen or worsen African environmental sustainability. To drive out the objectives of the study, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), augmented mean group (AMG), method of moment quantile regression (MMQR) and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality approaches are used to analyse the effect of tariff in addition to other control variables on carbon and ecological footprints as measured of environmental sustainability from 2001 to 2020. The results from the MMQR reveal that tariffs have a significant positive effect on carbon footprints in the 0.15 quantile, while the effect becomes insignificant between 0.25 and 0.5 quantiles. However, at the upper quantiles level (0.75–0.95), the impact of the tariff on carbon footprint is negative and significant, with increasing coefficients. Furthermore, tariffs significantly positively affect lower and middle quantiles' ecological footprints (0.15–0.5). However, the effect turns negative at the upper quantiles (0.9 and 0.95), suggesting that tariff reduces ecological footprint at these levels. In addition, the long‐run estimates (FMOLS, DOLS and AMG) also support the upper quantile estimates of MMQR. A one‐way causality between tariffs, carbon and ecological footprint was found. These findings reveal that tariffs do not create market inefficiency in Africa. This study recommends that tariffs as a trade policy instrument could be used to strengthen Africa's environmental quality. The government can use the tariff revenue to subsidize cleaner production and consumption and move the economy from a traditional energy source to renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With geoeconomics becoming the dominant mode of global politics, the EU has responded by adopting a raft of new policy tools. As the EU's foreign and trade policies have long been premised on the hegemony of neoliberal globalization, new policies represent a significant paradigm shift and have received detailed scholarly attention. However, the question of how the 'rise of geoeconomics' has been changing the demands for, production, practices, and institutional organization of policy knowledge remains unaddressed. Analysing the EU knowledge regime -- a polity -- and its political economy-specific way of producing and consuming policy knowledge -- this article provides the first comprehensive examination of changes that have been engendered by (and justified with reference to) the perceived requirements of geoeconomic statecraft. Focusing on the blurring of borders between EU's foreign and security and trade policy, this article argues that we can identify important changes in the demand, supply and practices of policy knowledge production. Besides a relative de-silosization of knowledge and policymaking between traditionally separate foreign and trade policy areas, we have witnessed 'internal think tankization' with EU institutions strengthening in-house think tanks, investing more in foresight, and engaging proactively with think tanks. The latter themselves have reacted to geoeconomics by reorganizing internally and adapting to new cross-area audiences and stakeholders. Finally, the think tanks-facilitated practice of convening policymakers, experts and corporate representatives has gained importance. While the changes to the knowledge regime mapped here are ongoing and open-ended, they have important implications for understanding the EU's geoeconomic actorness, effectiveness, legitimacy and social purpose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reviews the dynamics that shaped the recently adopted Regulation (EU) 2023/2675, known as the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which represents the EU's latest autonomous trade measure aimed at protecting the Union and its Member States from economic coercion by third countries. Unlike other legal instruments focusing on international trade, the ACI addresses geopolitical tensions and disputes fought through economic means, thereby departing from traditional trade policy objectives, and entering the sphere of foreign and security policy. This nexus was reflected during the interinstitutional negotiations of the ACI that significantly changed the instrument, whereas the main controversy revolved around determining instances of economic coercion and the subsequent selection of Union response measures. The paper engages with the question of how the genesis of the ACI can be understood by considering both the legal dimension and the critical influence of political and institutional factors. It contends that while the EU's legal framework provides the leeway to overcome the separation of trade and security foreseen by the Treaties, the institutional dynamics resulted in the instrument being decisively shaped by internal factors related to the division of competence within the EU, rather than external threats. The article advocates for a stronger political vision to determine what role the EU's trade policy can and should play within the overall shift towards greater strategic autonomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S.-China trade dispute and the consequent reduction of U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2018 caused significant financial losses to corn and soybean farmers in the American Midwest. The mass media are arguably the most influential information sources that shape citizens' attitudes toward such political matters. This study first identified the overarching frames employed by the farmers' top media sources regarding the trade dispute and then compared them against farmers' level of support for the U.S. trade policy toward China. Results showed stark differences in the frames used by media sources. We also found that farmers' level of support for America's tough trade stance on China varied according to the media sources to which they subscribed the most. The findings provide evidence for the influence of news organisations' political ideology or political leaning on media frame setting and the effects of media frames on the strength of farmers' support for the retaliatory trade policy toward China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantitatively evaluated the impact of textile raw material access on Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) members' apparel exports to the United States. Results from the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model show that improving CAFTA-DR garment producers' textile raw material access would significantly enhance the price competitiveness of their apparel exports to the United States and increase the export volume. However, improving CAFTA-DR garment producers' textile raw material access would primarily benefit Asian textile suppliers but result in CAFTA-DR members' reduced dependence on the U.S. textile raw material supply. The study's findings provided new insights into the textile and apparel trade patterns in the Western Hemisphere and offered valuable inputs contributing to the public policy debate on expanding U.S. apparel sourcing from CAFTA-DR members from a unique supply chain perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper concerns implications of the WTO rules on domestic regulations and trade policy measures and analises trade policy options available for a WTO member-state under the WTO rules that may maintain benefiting from the WTO membership. It describes effects of the WTO disciplines on institutional structure of the member-states and analyses issues relating to the formulation of the WTO compatible trade policy measures and mechanisms of their application, examines possibilities for the utilisation of contingency protection measures available under the WTO law. Issues of institution building, trade regime formation and creation of an adequate normative basis of the trade policy formulation is also touched upon based on such analysis, given that the mentioned aspects of the WTO membership is a necessary condition for a successful WTO compliant trade policy. At the same time, it also becomes important to ensure achievment of the development and welfare interests and avoid of subjecting foreign trade measures to private interests by way of establishment of the appropriate procedures and legal environment. Therefore, shaping trade regime and legal procedures in a way enabling formulation and implementation of measures serving the community interests and excluding or minimising utilisation therof in the interests of the private interest groups aquire utmost importance. Based on this, the paper analyses interactions between the rules, practices and institutions comprising the WTO law and the trade regimes of the member­states and explores possibilities of establishing, conducting and adaptation of the WTO complaint trade policies capable of ensuring acievement of social and econimic development goals. Therefore, the paper explores the trade policy regulation mechanisms of the states within the normative and institutional framework established by the WTO law, as well as the possibilities of introducing economic and social development-oriented trade policies by the member-states and candidates for membership in accordance with the WTO law. For these purpose, the legal and institutional aspects of the WTO affecting formation of trade policies and the application of trade measures by the member states and consequencies of mutual institutional influences between the WTO law and the trade policies of the member states are highlighted, principal legal and institutional effects arising from the WTO agreements have been analysed, experience of the WTO members in trade policy formulation and implementation have been summarized, deficiencies and shortfalls in the internal legal systems and institutional structures that may arise in connection with the membership in the WTO identified based on analysis of the experience of the WTO members, recommendations and proposals regarding legal adaptation and institutional changes that may be considered necessary or appropriate in connection with WTO membership have been formulated. It is shown that membership in the WTO results in long-term effects on the country’s economy, and these effects concern primarily the legal regulation of trade relations. WTO membership, creates the need to constantly adapt the application of trade policy measures to the WTO requirements. The paper asserts that specific times, durations and purposes of trade measures applicable in accordance with the WTO law depend on the specifics of the objectives and the issues to be resolved in a specific political and economic conditions and, therefore, must be determined individually in each case. The trade policy in such case needs to be purposefully and organically reconciled with general macroeconomic measures such as tax policy, labor market regulations, investment environment, currency policy, etc., in order to be able to maintain economic efficience and social welfare under the WTO rules, otherwise it is possible that membership in the WTO can become a source of economic and social tensions. WTO membership may vreate serious economic and social risks. Mitigation of such risks requires adaptation of the legal regulation, as well as institutional and power structures. Solutions should accomodate specific political, economic and social situations, institutional structure and would require involvement of adequate fianacial and intellectual resources. The paper also toches upon the issues of transparency, market competition, good governance methods, market inadequacy and market protection possibilities. As an overall conclusion, it is asserted that adherence to the WTO rules does not ensure the increase in the level of well-being, economic and social development, but only creates the basis for it. Achieving these goals may not be possible through membership in the WTO, but through appropriate organizational structure taking into account the membership requirements, as well as thoughtful decisions on the use of opportunities provided by the WTO. Although the requirements are numerous, the freedom to decide about these requirements is not small. This last aspect is a key issue to consider in terms of the impact of the WTO on trade policy and market access conditions.

Trade Agreements (TAs) are instruments crafted and implemented by policymakers with the aim of enhancing trade between countries or regions/economic blocs. In this study, a gravity model was utilized to estimate the effects within a panel of 165 countries, examining Chilean exports across total, agricultural, and manufacturing sectors. The findings largely align with theoretical expectations: the presence of FTAs tends to bolster Chile’s exports to partner nations, with a more pronounced effect observed for FTAs. Notably, FTAs with South Korea, China, and Japan have facilitated trade growth exceeding the average increase, both across total exports and within the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the FTA with South Korea has shown significant growth in agricultural exports compared to exports to other countries.

The purpose of the study is to develop main provisions of the concept of improving customs tariff mechanisms for regulating international trade. As the subject of the study, the fundamental elements of the customs mechanisms development concept have been defined: principles, tasks, tools, etc. In order to develop competitiveness in the world economy and international trade, it is relevant to adapt to the changing conditions of international business and identify the area where it is necessary to take measures to support it. The necessity of improving customs mechanisms for regulating international trade has been substantiated. The research methodology is based on the scientific literature analysis, comparative analysis, statistical data systematization and analysis. The main study result is the presentation of the concept of the processes of improving customs-tariff mechanisms of international trade and its elements regulation, aimed at increasing the effectiveness of customs-tariff measures for developing international trade in the Eurasian Economic Union member states. The concept proposes directions for systematization and improvement of supranational level customs regulation tools, which remains an important task for the near future, especially in view of changes in the foreign trade of Russian enterprises as a result of the trade conflicts aggravation caused by political and economic relations deterioration between the US, the European Union member states, and Russia. The study results application scope can be determined by a wide range of users, such as government executive authorities and customs service, logistics and commercial companies, as well as the scientific community. In the future, the proposed concept application in practical activities will ensure a business-friendly environment creation in accordance with the requirements of the general trade and customs policy and investments promotion related to the international trade development.

Purpose This study examines the influence of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in Indonesia and Japan from 2013 to 2023. Drawing upon the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), we investigate how key factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and economic events impact stock returns. Design/methodology/approach We examine the connections between these characteristics and stock market performance in two different markets using regression analysis and EMH as the theoretical framework. In order to find patterns and trends, we analyze data spanning a decade. Findings Interest rates strongly affect Indonesian stocks due to their influence on investor sentiment. In Japan, trade agreements have a significant positive impact on stock returns. However, stock returns in both countries are weakly connected to inflation, currency rates, and other economic and political factors. The global economy remains a key external factor for both markets. Research limitations/implications This study has some restrictions, such as data limitations and EMH framework-related presumptions. In the future, research may focus on longer-term effects, behavioral aspects, and sector-specific analysis to further our comprehension of these intricate interactions. Originality/value This research advances our understanding of market behavior under various economic conditions by analyzing the interaction of macroeconomic variables and stock market dynamics in two distinct economies.

The article analyzes the current state and prospects of development of exports of domestic industrial products to the rapidly developing countries of Asia, in particular to Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh and the Philippines. It is shown that today Ukraine is a full-fledged participant in the globalization process, and its further development will largely depend on the priorities of its foreign economic integration policy, the formation and implementation of which should be based on building strategic relations with both individual Asian countries and various regional associations. It is substantiated that the need to intensify Ukraine’s cooperation with Asian countries is caused not only by the global transformation in the balance of power of the world economy, but also by the need for export diversification of foreign trade in the context of Russian aggression. The analysis shows that by 2022, the demand for domestic industrial products in the markets of Indonesia and Thailand had positive dynamics and ensured, albeit not a significant increase in the export of Ukrainian high-tech goods. Despite the positive trade balance, demand for domestic industrial products in the markets of Bangladesh and the Philippines was characterized by a gradual decline until 2022. In general, the share of domestic industrial products in the structure of exports to these countries is quite low: Indonesia - 0.7%, Thailand - 3.0%, Bangladesh - 4.3%, and the Philippines - 9.9%. At the same time, the share of industrial products from these countries in the structure of Ukrainian imports was much higher, in particular: Indonesia - 20.0%, Thailand - 82.1%, Bangladesh - 96.8%, and the Philippines - 92.4%. Due to the large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the article estimates the losses in foreign trade between Ukraine and rapidly developing Asian countries in 2022. In particular, it is shown that the volume of foreign trade turnover between Ukraine and Indonesia will decrease by 39.2% compared to 2021, Thailand - by 35.3%, Bangladesh - by 48.6%, and the Philippines - by 38.6%. Based on the analysis of scientific and statistical literature, it is established that the determining instrument of trade policy of the rapidly developing Asian countries is customs tariffs, various preferential regimes and benefits for industrial products in accordance with various bilateral and regional trade agreements. In order to further develop partnership relations between Ukraine and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, it is proposed to intensify and strengthen the dialogue on deepening trade and economic cooperation through the system of trade policy instruments. In terms of further research, additional studies are proposed to determine the prospects for concluding bilateral trade agreements on FTAs between individual countries and developing a long-term strategy for trade and economic cooperation.

This study explores the long-term interplay between trade policy, energy efficiency, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in South Korea, using data spanning from 1985 to 2023. By applying the Fourier autoregressive distributed lag (FARDL) model, the analysis reveals that while trade liberalization initially leads to a 0.23% increase in CO2 emissions for each 1% rise in trade openness—driven by the energy demands of industrial expansion—integrating energy efficiency standards within trade agreements helps mitigate these effects over time; this results in a 0.26% reduction in emissions for every 1% improvement in energy efficiency. The study also highlights the dual role of foreign direct investment (FDI), which contributes to a short-term 0.08% rise in emissions but significantly reduces carbon intensity in the long term by facilitating the adoption of cleaner technologies. These findings underscore the importance of innovation and FDI in decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation. The study advocates for the incorporation of energy efficiency measures into trade agreements and the prioritization of green technologies, recommending strategies that could enable South Korea to reduce its CO2 emissions by up to 40% by 2030. This research positions South Korea as a key actor in achieving global climate goals while maintaining economic competitiveness, offering valuable insights into the balance between sustainable development and industrial growth.

This paper contributes to the literature on EU trade policy by introducing insights from the political economy literature on development to the study of how EU trade liberalisation affects development in trading partners. Drawing on a comparison of EU trade liberalisation with Moldova and Georgia, we argue that the type of coalition between public and private actors in partner countries' top export sectors determines which firms benefit from better market access to the EU, as indicated by their ability to increase their exports. We show that liberalised trade with the EU tends to contribute to achieving the EU's declared objective of inclusive development if the presence of inclusionary development coalitions ensures that a broad range of firms is enabled to increase their export capacities through a mechanism that we call 'inclusive empowerment'. Otherwise, trade liberalisation contributes to exclusive development, benefitting big, mostly foreign firms, or, at worse, consolidating rent-seeking practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]