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Robust ecological forecasting of tree growth under future climate conditions is critical to anticipate future forest carbon storage and flux. Here, we apply three ingredients of ecological forecasting that are key to improving forecast skill: data fusion, confronting model predictions with new data, and partitioning forecast uncertainty. Specifically, we present the first fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data within a Bayesian state-space model at a multi-site, regional scale, focusing on Pinus ponderosa var. brachyptera in the southwestern US. Leveraging the complementarity of these two data sources, we parsed the ecological complexity of tree growth into the effects of climate, tree size, stand density, site quality, and their interactions, and quantified uncertainties associated with these effects. New measurements of trees, an ongoing process in forest inventories, were used to confront forecasts of tree diameter with observations, and evaluate alternative tree growth models. We forecasted tree diameter and increment in response to an ensemble of climate change projections, and separated forecast uncertainty into four different causes: initial conditions, parameters, climate drivers, and process error. We found a strong negative effect of fall-spring maximum temperature, and a positive effect of water-year precipitation on tree growth. Furthermore, tree vulnerability to climate stress increases with greater competition, with tree size, and at poor sites. Under future climate scenarios, we forecast increment declines of 22%-117%, while the combined effect of climate and size-related trends results in a 56%-91% decline. Partitioning of forecast uncertainty showed that diameter forecast uncertainty is primarily caused by parameter and initial conditions uncertainty, but increment forecast uncertainty is mostly caused by process error and climate driver uncertainty. This fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data lays the foundation for robust ecological forecasting of aboveground biomass and carbon accounting at tree, plot, and regional scales, including iterative improvement of model skill.

Sapwood characteristics, such as sapwood area as well as thermal and hydraulic conductivity, are linked to species-specific hydraulic function and resource allocation to water transport tissues (xylem). These characteristics are often unknown and thus a major source of uncertainty in sap flow data processing and transpiration estimates because bulk rather than species-specific values are usually applied. Here, we analyzed the sapwood characteristics of fifteen common tree species in eastern North America from different taxonomic (i.e., angiosperms and gymnosperms) and xylem porosity groups (i.e., tracheid-bearing, diffuse- or ring-porous species) and we assessed how uncertainties in sapwood characteristics involved in sap flow calculations are propagated in tree water use estimates. We quantified their sapwood area changes with stem diameter (allometric scaling) and thermal conductivity. We combined these measurements with species-specific values of wood density and hydraulic conductivity found in the literature and assessed the role of wood anatomy in orchestrating their covariation. Using an example sap flow dataset from tree species with different xylem porosity, we assessed the sensitivity of tree water use estimates to sapwood characteristics and their interactions. Angiosperms (ring- and diffuse-porous species), with specialized vessels for water transport, showed a steeper relationship (scaling) between tree stem diameter and sapwood area in comparison to gymnosperms (tracheid-bearing species). Gymnosperms (angiosperms) were characterized by lower (higher) wood density and higher (lower) sapwood moisture content, resulting in non-significant differences in sapwood thermal conductivity between taxonomic and xylem porosity groups. Clustering of species sapwood characteristics based on taxonomic or xylem porosity groups and constraining these parameters could facilitate more accurate sap flow calculations and tree water use estimates. When combined with an increasing number of sap flow observations, these findings should improve tree- and landscape-level transpiration estimates, leading to more robust partitioning of terrestrial water fluxes.

Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples., Sampling strategies may bias tree-ring datasets to not accurately represent the regional response to climate change. Here, Klesse et al. use a new representative dataset to show that the International Tree-Ring Data Bank in the U.S. Southwest overestimates climate sensitivity of forests by 41–59%

The position of the northern boundary of the tropical belt affects the hydroclimate of many arid and semi-arid regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Widening of the tropical belt since the 1970s has largely been attributed to anthropogenic forcing. However, the relative influence of natural drivers of tropical belt expansion and contraction before this time is poorly understood. Here we use data on tree-ring widths from five mid-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere to reconstruct the movement of the northern boundary of the early spring tropical belt over the past 800 years (ad 1203–2003). Our reconstruction explains 45% of the interannual variance in the latitudinal extent of the Hadley circulation, a metric of the position of the tropical belt boundary. We find that the tropical belt contracted (expanded) during positive (negative) phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific North American teleconnection patterns. The tropical belt also contracted significantly following major volcanic events that injected sulfur into the stratosphere. The longest period of persistent tropical belt expansion occurred in the late sixteenth century, during one of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age. Our results warn of potential socio-economic consequences of future variations in tropical belt width driven by natural climate variability or stratospheric aerosol injections, whether volcanic or artificial. Fil: Alfaro Sánchez, R.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Centre de Recerca Ecológica I Aplicacions Forestals; España. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Nguyen, H.. Bureau of Meteorology; Australia Fil: Klesse, S.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Hudson, A.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Belmecheri, S.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Köse, N.. Istanbul University; Turquía Fil: Diaz, H. F.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos Fil: Monson, R. K.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Trouet, V.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos

Stable isotope ratios in tree rings have become an important proxy for palaeoclimatology, particularly in temperate regions. Yet temperate forests are often characterized by heterogeneous stand structures, and the effects of stand dynamics on carbon (δ13 C) and oxygen isotope ratios (δ18 O) in tree rings are not well explored. In this study, we investigated long-term trends and offsets in δ18 O and δ13 C of Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica in relation to tree age, size, and distance to the upper canopy at seven temperate sites across Europe. We observed strong positive trends in δ13 C that are best explained by the reconstructed dynamics of individual trees below the upper canopy, highlighting the influence of light attenuation on δ13 C in shade-tolerant species. We also detected positive trends in δ18 O with increasing tree size. However, the observed slopes are less steep and consistent between trees of different ages and thus can be more easily addressed. We recommend restricting the use of δ13 C to years when trees are in a dominant canopy position to infer long-term climate signals in δ13 C when relying on material from shade-tolerant species, such as beech and spruce. For such species, δ18 O should be in principle the superior proxy for climate reconstructions.

Forest growth and biomass response to environmental change depends upon climatic, but also upon interactions with biotic drivers, such as insect outbreak activity. In this study we use tree-rings along a temperature gradient to assess the relative importance of climate versus altered larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana) outbreak cycles for forest biomass accumulation at high elevations. We established climate-growth relationships and performed outbreak-growth response analysis for >500 individuals from host (Larix decidua) and non-host trees (Picea abies) at different elevations (from 1300 to 2200 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps. We quantified outbreak-induced reductions of absolute biomass increment and modelled effects of the recent absence of outbreaks. Our results reveal that average outbreaks reduced biomass accumulation by 1130 kg ha−1 y−1 during the four years after the event, having an equal or even greater impact on carbon sequestration than climate. Recent growth increases previously observed at the study sites are largely attributable to the outbreaks absence since 1981, suggesting that regular outbreaks have hampered host-trees from realizing their growth potential for centuries. The presented impact analysis quantifies the importance of non-lethal insect activity on forest biomass dynamics, revealing the relevance of including such biotic drivers and their interactions with climate in models assessing the future productivity and carbon sink capacity of forests.

Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO2 and climate conditions, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the ratio between the CO2 partial pressure in the intercellular cavities and the atmosphere (ci∕ca) and of the ratio of assimilation to stomatal conductance, termed intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We performed isotope-enabled simulations over the industrial period with the land biosphere module (CLM4.5) of the Community Earth System Model and the Land Surface Processes and Exchanges (LPX-Bern) dynamic global vegetation model. Results for C3 tree species show good agreement with a global compilation of δ13C measurements on leaves, though modeled 13C discrimination by C3 trees is smaller in arid regions than measured. A compilation of 76 tree-ring records, mainly from Europe, boreal Asia, and western North America, suggests on average small 20th century changes in isotopic discrimination and in ci∕ca and an increase in iWUE of about 27 % since 1900. LPX-Bern results match these century-scale reconstructions, supporting the idea that the physiology of stomata has evolved to optimize trade-offs between carbon gain by assimilation and water loss by transpiration. In contrast, CLM4.5 simulates an increase in discrimination and in turn a change in iWUE that is almost twice as large as that revealed by the tree-ring data. Factorial simulations show that these changes are mainly in response to rising atmospheric CO2. The results suggest that the downregulation of ci∕ca and of photosynthesis by nitrogen limitation is possibly too strong in the standard setup of CLM4.5 or that there may be problems associated with the implementation of conductance, assimilation, and related adjustment processes on long-term environmental changes.

Disturbances, both natural and human induced, influence forest dynamics, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services. Here, we aim to evaluate the consequences of natural disturbances on the magnitude and dynamics of tree- and stand-level biomass accumulation from decadal to centennial scales. We use tree-ring data from 2301 trees and biometric data from 4909 trees sampled in 96 plots (each 1000 m 2 ) to quantify the influence of mixed severity disturbance regimes on annual aboveground biomass increment (AGBI) and total aboveground biomass accumulation (AGB) across a mountainous monotypic Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) primary forest. We hypothesise that the multiple internal and external factors constraining tree growth will cause differences in tree and stand-level biomass trajectories in these natural forests. Although we found that tree-level AGB growth increases with tree size, we also found that tree age and disturbance legacies plays a crucial role for AGB in the investigated Norway spruce forests. Importantly, while younger trees of the same diameter class have an average current AGBI rate that is ∼225% higher than older trees (300–400 years), we find trees that have been suppressed for up to 120 years can respond vigorously when competition is reduced. On average, post disturbance AGBI was ∼400% greater than pre-disturbance AGBI. Growth of suppressed trees, independent of their age, followed similar trajectories after canopy accession. While aboveground biomass generally increased through time, the time since disturbance and disturbance severity are important co-predictors for stand-level AGBI and AGB. These forests regained most of the above ground living biomass over short interval (∼50 years) after low intensity disturbances. The highest stand-level living AGB was observed on plots that experienced >40% canopy removal 160–190 years ago, whereas the highest AGBI occurred in plots disturbed recently within the past 40–50 years. Our results emphasize the importance of including both individual tree age and disturbance legacies to accurately characterize biomass dynamics and trajectories in forest ecosystems. Importantly, the period of time that a tree is in the canopy, and not tree age, modulates the trajectory of tree level AGBI. Growth rates begin to decline after ∼30 years (tree-rings width) and ∼100 years (AGBI) in the canopy. We demonstrate that even late-seral forests can rapidly regain biomass lost to low intensity disturbance.

Records of stable oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings are valuable tools to reconstruct past climatic conditions and investigate the response of trees to those conditions. So far the use of stable oxygen isotope signatures of tree rings has not been systematically evaluated in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). DGVMs integrate many hydrological and physiological processes and their application could improve proxy-model comparisons and the interpretation of oxygen isotope records. Here we present an approach to simulate leaf water and stem cellulose δ18O of trees using the LPX-Bern DGVM (LPX-Bern). Our results lie within a few per mil of measured tree ring δ18O of 31 different forest stands mainly located in Europe. Temporal means over the last 5 decades as well as interannual variations for a subset of sites in Switzerland are captured. A sensitivity analysis reveals that relative humidity, temperature, and the water isotope boundary conditions have the largest influence on simulated stem cellulose δ18O, followed by all climatic factors combined, whereas increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition exert no impact. We conclude that simulations with LPX-Bern are useful for investigating large-scale oxygen isotope patterns of tree ring cellulose to elucidate the importance of different environmental factors on isotope variations and therefore help to reduce uncertainties in the interpretation of δ18O of tree rings.

The demand for large-scale and long-term information on tree growth is increasing rapidly as environmental change research strives to quantify and forecast the impacts of continued warming on forest ecosystems. This demand, combined with the now quasi-global availability of tree-ring observations, has inspired researchers to compile large tree-ring networks to address continental or even global-scale research questions. However, these emergent spatial objectives contrast with paleo-oriented research ideas that have guided the development of many existing records. A series of challenges related to how, where, and when samples have been collected is complicating the transition of tree rings from a local to a global resource on the question of tree growth. Herein, we review possibilities to scale tree-ring data (A) from the sample to the whole tree, (B) from the tree to the site, and (C) from the site to larger spatial domains. Representative tree-ring sampling supported by creative statistical approaches is thereby key to robustly capture the heterogeneity of climate-growth responses across forested landscapes. We highlight the benefits of combining the temporal information embedded in tree rings with the spatial information offered by forest inventories and earth observations to quantify tree growth and its drivers. In addition, we show how the continued development of mechanistic tree-ring models can help address some of the non-linearities and feedbacks that complicate making inference from tree-ring data. By embracing scaling issues, the discipline of dendrochronology will greatly increase its contributions to assessing climate impacts on forests and support the development of adaptation strategies.