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Tsunamis are among the deadliest threats to coastal areas as reminded by the recent tragic events in the Indian Ocean in 2004 and in Japan in 2011. A large number of tropical islands are indeed exposed due to their proximity to potential tsunami sources in tectonic subduction zones. For these territories, assessing tsunamis’ impact is of major concern for early warning systems and management plans. The effectiveness of inundation predictions relies, among other things, on processes engaged at the scale of the local bathymetry and topography. As part of the project C3AF that aimed to study the consequences of climate change on the French West Indies, we used the numerical model SCHISM to simulate the propagation of several potential tsunamis as well as their impacts on the Guadeloupe islands (French West Indies). Working from the findings of the most recent studies, we used the simulations of four scenarios of collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary islands. We then used FUNWAVE-TVD to simulate trans-Atlantic wave propagation until they reached the Guadeloupe archipelago where we used SCHISM to assess their final impact. Inundation is quantified for the whole archipelago and detailed for the most exposed areas. Finally, in a climate change perspective, inundation is compared for different sea levels and degrees of vegetation cover deterioration using modified friction coefficients. We then discuss the results showing that climate change-related factors would amplify the impact more in the case of smaller inundation along with model limitations and assumptions.

Wave resource assessment is the first step toward the installation of a wave energy converter (WEC). To support initiatives for wave energy development in the southwest of France, a coastal wave database is built from a 44-year hindcast simulation with the spectral wave model SWAN (Simulating WAve Nearshore) run on a high-resolution unstructured grid. The simulation includes shallow-water processes such as refraction, shoaling, and breaking. The model is validated against a five-year coastal wave buoy recording. The study shows that most of the resource is provided by sea states with wave heights ranging from 2 to 5 m, with wave periods from 10 and 15 s, and coming from a very narrow angular sector. The long hindcast duration and the refined unstructured grid used for the simulation allow assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of wave energy across the coastal area. On the one hand, large longshore variations of the resource caused by steep bathymetric gradients such as the Capbreton submarine canyon are underlined. On the other hand, the study highlights that no specific long-term trend can be extracted regarding the coastal wave energy resource evolution. The provided downscaled local wave resource information may be used to optimize the location and design of a future WEC that could be deployed in the region.

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.